Weekly Market Update: Stocks roar higher on optimism about reopening and infrastructure spending
The NASDAQ composite finally arrived at the party this week, joining the S&P 500 and Dow by reaching a new high water mark. The Transports continued to lag, keeping some market watchers worried that stocks remain ripe for a correction, but nevertheless US indices forged further into uncharted territory. Two additional Fed members, Kaplan and Bostic, joined Bullard from a week ago by outing their individual dots within the dot plot by confirming they too expect the Fed to begin raising rates sometime in 2022. That acknowledgement, however, came amid a litany of Fed speak that largely echoed the message from last week’s statement and press conference. In contrast, the Czech central bank began moving rates higher along with a surprise hike from the Mexico Central bank. The Bank of England left both rates and asset purchases unchanged and no new MPC members chose to join outgoing member Haldane by voting to cut GILT purchases.
Overall investor sentiment was aided by continued strength in global PMI readings along with growing hopes that a bipartisan infrastructure plan can get done in Washington. By Friday, President Biden was touting a $1.2T bipartisan agreement on portions of infrastructure spending, but it remained unclear how members of each caucus will ultimately vote given the parallel track of reconciliation being taken by the Democrats for the more progressive portions of their agenda. US Treasury yields largely stayed in check before modest selling late in the week pushed rates higher at the long end. The Biticoin and etherium slide continued, at one point giving away all the gains for the year before attempting to stabilize. Crude oil prices continued to firm amid growing bullish sentiment around world supply & demand dynamics which overshadowed reports OPEC+ producers were considering easing production curbs by another 500K b/d in August. For the week, the S&P gained 2.7%, the DJIA rose 3.4%, and the Nasdaq added 2.4%.
In corporate news this week, Nike gained on Friday as investors applauded strong earnings and an upgrade to forecasts through FY25 as North America sales doubled to a new record and the greater China market remains strong. FedEx shares weighed on the Transports despite notching record earnings as investors worried about rising costs. KB Homes moved lower after missing analyst estimates on Q2 revenues, despite strong housing demand and net orders. Major tech firms were in the crosshairs of the House Antitrust Committee this week, as the panel approved a slew of antitrust bills aimed at limiting the power of big tech, including legislation that could require Amazon to sell its logistics business. Southwest Airlines announced Chairman and CEO Gary Kelly will transition roles in early 2022 to Executive Chairman, as EVP Robert Jordan takes the reins to become CEO on February 1st. Visa acquired Swedish digital financial services platform Tink for €1.8B in cash as it moves to insert itself in Europe’s fast-growing open banking market.
MON 6/21
MRW.UK Notes Clayton, Dubilier & Rice's conditional non-binding proposal; Unanimously rejects it as it significantly undervalued Morrisons
1288.HK Said to ban customer accounts associated with cryptocurrency transactions - financial press
ETH/USD Breaks below $2,000 for 1st time in a month amid news from Chinese city Ya'an and Sichuan province announced to root out all Etherium and Bitcoin mining within 1 year
(DE) German Health Minister Spahn: there is a risk of 4th wave due to Delta variant
(US) Fed Chair Powell: inflation has increased notably in recent months but expected to drop back towards Fed's goals - prepared congressional testimony
AMZN New Antitrust bill could require company from favoring own services, potentially sell logistics business - press
TUES 6/22
(EU) ECB Strategy Review said to be in the final stages but policymakers said to be some way apart on its new inflation strategy - press
*(US) MAY EXISTING HOME SALES: 5.8M V 5.72ME (drops for a fourth straight month)
(US) Fed's Daly (non-voter, dove): Could reach 'further progress' taper threshold in late 2021 or early 2022; rate change discussion is not on table right now - Q&A with reporters
WEDS 6/23
2330.TW Said to raise prices for 8-inch and 12-inch wafers by as much as 20% next year (2022); cites strong demand - press
(CN) US will reportedly ban some solar goods from Xinjiang, China - press
KBH Reports Q2 $1.50 v $1.29e, Rev $1.44B v $1.48Be
(US) Fed's Kaplan (non-voter; hawkish): Forecasts first rate hike in 2022; Sees 2022 inflation moderating but broadening
(US) Fed's Bostic (FOMC voter, hawk): Fed is close to meeting standard for bond buying tapering; it is fully appropriate to debate taper prospects; tapering decision could be in 3 to 4 months
*(US) DOE CRUDE: -7.6M V -4ME; GASOLINE: -2.9M V +1ME; DISTILLATE: +1.8M V +0.5ME (crude stocks fall to lowest since March 2020)
*(US) MAY NEW HOME SALES: 769K V 865KE
*(US) JUN PRELIMINARY MARKIT PMI MANUFACTURING: 62.6 V 61.5E
LUV Chairman and CEO Gary Kelly will transition roles in early 2022 to Executive Chairman; Robert Jordan to become CEO on Feb 1st
*(CZ) CZECH CENTRAL BANK (CNB) RAISES 2-WEEK REPURCHASE RATE BY 25BPS TO 0.50%; AS EXPECTED
GEF Announces a $50/Ton Price Increase on All Uncoated Recycled Paperboard (URB) Grades
SON Announces 30-day notice to raise at least 6% price increases for paperboard tubes and cores; 7th price increase of 2021
*(UK) JUN PRELIMINARY PMI MANUFACTURING: 64.2 V 64.0E (13th straight expansion)
*(EU) EURO ZONE JUN PRELIMINARY PMI MANUFACTURING: 63.1 V 62.3E (12th month of expansion)
*(DE) GERMANY JUN PRELIMINARY PMI MANUFACTURING: 64.9 V 63.0E (12th month of expansion)
*(FR) FRANCE JUN PRELIMINARY PMI MANUFACTURING: 58.6 V 59.0E (7th month of expansion)
THURS 6/24
SIE.DE Affirms FY21 outlook; Raises mid-term Rev growth 5-7%/yr (prior 4-5%/yr); Plans new share buyback of up to €3B until 2026 - CMD
V Acquires European open banking platform Tink for €1.8B in cash
EBAY Confirms to divest 80% stake in Korean business to E-Mart for KRW3.44T (~$3.03B) in cash
*(DE) GERMANY JUN IFO BUSINESS CLIMATE SURVEY: 101.8 V 100.7E
*(UK) BANK OF ENGLAND BANK (BOE) LEAVES INTEREST RATES UNCHANGED AT 0.10%; AS EXPECTED
(UK) BOE maintains Total Asset Purchases at £895B
*(UK) BOE JUN MINUTES: VOTED 9-0 TO LEAVES INTEREST RATES UNCHANGED AT 0.10%
*(US) INITIAL JOBLESS CLAIMS: 411K V 380KE; CONTINUING CLAIMS: 3.39M V 3.46ME
*(US) MAY PRELIMINARY WHOLESALE INVENTORIES M/M: 1.1% V 0.8%E
(US) Atlanta Fed GDPNow cuts Q2 GDP forecast to 9.7% from 10.3%
*(US) PRES BIDEN: WE HAVE AN INFRASTRUCTURE DEAL; WE MADE 'SERIOUS COMPROMISES ON BOTH ENDS'
FDX Reports Q4 $5.01 v $5.04e, Rev $22.6B v $21.7Be; Guides initial FY22 inline, Op Margins expands materially
NKE Reports Q4 $0.93 v $0.51e, Rev $12.3B v $11.1Be
(US) Federal Reserve: All 23 banks stayed above minimum capital levels in stress tests; additional restrictions put in place during the COVID event will end
FRI 6/25
CS Reportedly CS's top management is under pressure to present overhaul plan, which may potentially lead to merger talks with UBS - press
(CN) S&P affirms China sovereign rating at A+; outlook stable
*(US) MAY PERSONAL INCOME: -2.0% V -2.5%E; PERSONAL SPENDING: 0.0% V 0.4%E
*(US) MAY PCE DEFLATOR M/M: 0.4% V 0.5%E; Y/Y: 3.9% V 3.9%E
(BR) Brazil Econ Min Guedes: proposes raising capital gains tax to 20%; taxes to be cut for 30M workers - tax reform address in Congress
(US) JUN FINAL UNIVERSITY OF MICHIGAN CONFIDENCE: 85.5 V 86.5
(US) Atlanta Fed GDPNow cuts Q2 GDP forecast to 8.3% from 9.7%
Closing Stock Market SummaryThe S&P 500 (+0.3%) set new intraday and closing record highs on Friday, largely due to strength in the financial stocks. PCE inflation data for May remained on the hotter side, which contributed to a bump in long-term interest rates.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average outperformed with a 0.7% gain, while the Nasdaq Composite (-0.1%) closed lower as the higher rates clipped its growth-stock components. The Russell 2000 (+0.04%) erased its intraday gain in the last ten minutes of action, as trading volume surged at the close amid the annual FTSE Russell index rebalance.
Specifying the data, the PCE Price Index for May rose 0.4% m/m and the core-PCE Price Index, which excludes food and energy, rose 0.5% m/m (Briefing.com consensus 0.6%). On a year-over-year basis, the Fed's preferred measures of inflation were up 3.9% and 3.4%, respectively. The 10-yr yield increased five basis points to 1.54% after an initial muted reaction.
The higher rates naturally worked in the favor of the S&P 500 financials sector (+1.3%), which was further supported by expectations for increases to share buyback programs and/or dividend payments after a positive showing in the Fed's latest stress test. The utilities sector (+1.1%) joined the financials sector with a gain over 1.0%.
The information technology sector (-0.2%) was the only sector that closed lower, which really held back the benchmark index given it's the most heavily-weighted sector in the S&P 500. Money seemed to prefer the value/cyclical stocks, many of which saw renewed strength this week.
Nike (NKE 154.35, +20.75, +15.5%) and CarMax (KMX 127.40, +7.97, +6.7%) stood out with nice earnings-driven gains, especially Nike's 15% move after also issuing upbeat FY22 guidance. FedEx (FDX 291.95, -10.99, -3.6%), on the other hand, underwhelmed shareholders with its small EPS beat.
The 2-yr yield was unchanged at 0.27%. The U.S. Dollar Index was little changed at 91.78. WTI crude futures rose 1.0%, or $0.75, to $74.06/bbl.
Reviewing Friday's economic data:
- Personal income decreased 2.0% month-over-month in May (consensus -2.5%), driven by an 11.8% decline in government social benefits, while personal spending was unchanged ( consensus +0.3%) following an upwardly revised 0.9% increase (from +0.5%) in April. The PCE Price Index jumped 0.4% month-over-month and was up 3.9% year-over-year (versus 3.6% in April). The core-PCE Price Index, which excludes food and energy, rose 0.5% and was up 3.4% year-over-year (versus 3.1% in April).
- The key takeaway from the report is the initial reaction to it. The inflation readings are eye-popping, yet the futures for the major indices went up in their wake while long-term bond yields barely moved. The seeming connection in those reactions is that this is at, or close to, peak inflation, meaning market participants are anticipating better inflation news in coming months.
- The final June reading for the University of Michigan Index of Consumer Sentiment slipped to 85.5 (consensus 86.4) from the preliminary reading of 86.4. The final reading for May was 82.9.
- The key takeaway from the report is the understanding that the uptick in sentiment in June was driven by households with incomes above $100,000 and their view of future economic prospects.
Investors will not receive any notable economic data on Monday.
- Russell 2000 +18.2% YTD
- S&P 500 +14.0% YTD
- Dow Jones Industrial Average +12.5% YTD
- Nasdaq Composite +11.4% YTD