>>> What to look at today - 2nd of July 2021

A slide in Chinese equities and the regional spread of the delta Covid-19 variant weighed on Asia’s stock market Friday, restraining sentiment despite positive vaccine developments and a record U.S. close. Oil climbed.
China’s CSI 300 index tumbled following Thursday’s centennial celebrations for the Communist Party. Some investors viewed the event’s conclusion as increasing market risks. Shares rose in Japan and Australia. S&P 500 contractswere stable after the U.S. index posted its longest winning streak since February, helped by cyclical sectors like energy. Nasdaq 100 futures retreated.
Crude traded above $75 a barrel, around the highest since 2018, after the OPEC+ alliance descended into infighting, casting doubt on an agreement that could ease a surge in prices.
The dollar held a climb and Treasuries were little changed ahead of Friday’s monthly payrolls report, which will help guide views on when the Federal Reserve may start pulling back on stimulus. Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker said cutting asset purchases by $10 billion a month might be reasonable and that he favored starting the process this year, according to a report.
US After Hours Quiet after hours; IMF raises GDP view; CRNC +7.7% higher as it will join S&P MidCap 400; HMN +1% ticks higher on raised guidance

Nikkei +0.22% Hang Seng -1.69% CSI -2.62% Shanghai -1.86% Shenzen -1.75%

Eur$ 1.1846 CNH 6.4827 CNY 6.4778 JPY 111.58 GBP 1.3772 CHF 0.9260 RUB 73.3715 TRY 8.6826 WTI$ 75.26 +0.04% Gold 1,778 +0.07% BTC 33,000 +165 ETH 2050 -30

S&P +0.03% Nasdaq -0.19% EuroStoxx +0.31% FTSE +0.31% Dax+0.20% SMI +0.24%

Macro :
- Fed Likely Needs to Raise Rates as Soon as Late 2022, IMF Says
- Global Tax Overhaul Endorsed by 130 Nations as Deal Gets Closer
- Goldman Said to Seek $4 Billion for Newest Infrastructure Fund
- OPEC+ Oil-Supply Hike in Doubt as Key Member Blocks Deal
- Jobless Claims Suggest Downside Risk for Payrolls
- Banker’s Portrait of Racism at HSBC Prompts an Internal Probe

Spacs :
- Abu Dhabi Sovereign Fund Mubadala Prepares Launch of 2 SPACs: FT
- SPAC Falcon Closes Sharecare Merger, Starts Trading Friday

Keep an eye on :
- ABBN SW : ABB Plans $3b IPO of EV Charging Unit Next Year: Reuters
- AKH NO : Aker Horizons’ Mainstream Gets Snr Debt Funds for Chile Project
- AMBU DC : Ambu Cuts FY Ebit Margin Before Items Forecast
- ASMI NA : ASMI Prelim 2Q Orders Above EU500M
- CABK SM : CaixaBank, Unions Agree to 6,452 Job Cuts, Expansion Reports
- COIN US : Robinhood Reveals Dogecoin Powered 34% of Its Crypto Revenue
- COIN US : Robinhood Targets Valuation of at Least $40B in IPO: FT
- DAI GY : Germany to Reach Goal of 1 Million EVs This Month: Tagesspiegel
- DNUT US : Krispy Kreme Jumps 24 % After Opening Below IPO Price
- EDP PL : Portuguese Electricity Demand Rose 6.7% in June, REN Says
- EQT SS : EQT, Goldman Near Deal for Parexel for Nearly $9b Incl. Debt: DJ
- EL FP : Essilorluxottica Completes Purchase of GrandVision Stake
- EUCAR FP : *HERTZ GAINS 23% ON FIRST SESSION AFTER EMERGING FROM BANKRUPTCY
- FTK GY : FlatexDEGIRO Shareholders to Sell About 2.5%-3.0% Stake
- GLJ GY : Grenke 1H Leasing New Business CM2 EU143.6M Vs. EU194.3M Y/y
- GYM LN : Gym Group Seeks GBP31 Million From Share Placing to Fund Growth
- HAL NA : Essilorluxottica Completes Purchase of GrandVision Stake
- ICO SS : Iconovo Considers Directed New Share Issue
- IMB LN : Dart’s Spring Mountain Raises Holding in Imperial Brands to 4%
- ITX SM : France Probes Fashion Brands on Alleged Uyghur Forced Labor: AFP
- JD/ LN : JD Sports Shareholders Vote to Remove Andrew Leslie From Board
- KINDSDB SS : Kindred Acquires Relax at Implied Valuation of up to EU320 Mln
- LEAS BB : Leasinvest Signs 12-Year Monteco Lease With Bank Nagelmackers
- LUN DC : Denovo in-Licenses Alzheimer’s Disease Asset From Lundbeck
- MB IM : Italy’s Billionaire Del Vecchio Raises Mediobanca Stake to 18.9%
- KN FP : BPCE Offer for Natixis Extended Until July 9: AMF
- NELES FH : Valmet and Neles to Merge, Implied Value/Neles Share EU14.22
- PAH3 GY : CNBC: Porsche ramps up its EV roadmap but will still invest in gas cars, North America CEO says https://t.co/XQMlkhubtr
- PSH NA : Pershing Square Holdings June Net Performance -2.2%
- RBREW DC : Royal Unibrew Agrees to Buy Solera for DKK770 Million
- SFER IM : Salvatore Ferragamo Confirms CEO Le Divelec Lemmi to Leave
- SMCP FP : France Probes Fashion Brands on Alleged Uyghur Forced Labor: AFP
- STLA US : FCA US Reports 32% Increase in 2Q Sales Y/y
- UCG IM : UniCredit Expects Higher Provisions in 2H as Moratoria Expires
- VOLVB SS : Volvo, Union in Tentative Pact to End Strike at Virginia Plant
- VOW3 GY : Glass Lewis Urges Vote Against Ratifying VW Boards
- VOW3 GY : Germany to Reach Goal of 1 Million EVs This Month: Tagesspiegel

>>> Europe : Brokers Upgrades & Dpwngrades - 2nd of July 2021

>>> Up
* Anglo American Raised to Outperform at Bernstein; PT 3,510 pence
* Barratt Raised to Buy at Jefferies; PT 876 pence
* BASF Raised to Neutral at JPMorgan; PT 68 euros
* Bellway Raised to Buy at Jefferies; PT 4,096 pence
* Givaudan Raised to Neutral at Goldman; PT 4,600 Swiss francs
* Informa Raised to Buy at Berenberg; PT 640 pence
* Morgan Advanced PT Raised to 420 pence at Jefferies
* SKF Raised to Hold at Jefferies; PT 215 kronor

>>> Down
* Aker BP Cut to Neutral at Citi
* BHP Group PLC Cut to Sell at Liberum; PT 1,900 pence
* Evonik Cut to Sell at Goldman; PT 27.60 euros
* H&M Cut to Neutral at Goldman; PT 225 kronor
* H&M Cut to Neutral at Citi; PT 206 kronor
* Pennon Cut to Hold at SocGen; PT 1,160 pence
* Sanne Group Cut to Hold at HSBC; PT 875 pence

>>> Initiation
* Aedas Homes SA Rated New Outperform at Oddo BHF; PT 31 euros
* Beiersdorf Reinstated Buy at Stifel; PT 115 euros
* Chemring Group Reinstated Buy at Jefferies; PT 370 pence
* C-Rad Rated New Buy at Pareto Securities; PT 75 kronor
* Henkel Reinstated Hold at Stifel; PT 100 euros
* Metrovacesa Rated New Neutral at Oddo BHF; PT 8 euros
* Neinor Rated New Outperform at Oddo BHF; PT 13.90 euros
* Nexi Rated New Overweight at JPMorgan; PT 23 euros
* Novartis Rated New Market Perform at Cowen
* OMV Resumed Neutral at Citi

>>> Call
* Barratt, Bellway Upgraded, Still Positive on Builders: Jefferies
* Chemring Gets Another Buy as Jefferies Sees ‘Compelling’ Story
* H&M Cut at Citi, Upside Not Enough for Positive Rating
* Informa Has Potential for Strong Recovery, Up to Buy: Berenberg

>>> US After Hours Summary: Quiet after hours; IMF raises GDP view; CRNC +7.7% h

After Hours Summary: Quiet after hours; IMF raises GDP view; CRNC +7.7% higher as it will join S&P MidCap 400; HMN +1% ticks higher on raised guidance

After Hours Gainers:

Companies trading higher in after hours in reaction to earnings/guidance: HMN +1% (raises FY21 EPS guidance)

Companies trading higher in after hours in reaction to news: CRNC +7.7% (to join S&P MidCap 400), ATGE +7% (will move from the S&P MidCap 400 to S&P SmallCap 600), DHT +1.9% (has purchased 3,721,841 of its own shares or 2.2% of outstanding shares), CCS +1% (files mixed securities shelf offering), ODC +0.3% (to increase prices for its agricultural, bleaching clay and fluid purification products), RTX +0.3% (awarded $2.0 bln Air Force contract), AIR +0.1% (signs agreement with Druck to offer global AOG support), WERN +0.1% (purchases 80% equity ownership stake in ECM Transport)

After Hours Losers:

Companies trading lower in after hours in reaction to earnings/guidance: None

Companies trading lower in after hours in reaction to news: BSGM -7.8% (stock offering), NM -2.9% (stock offering), CLVT -1% (files for mixed securities shelf offering), VBIV -0.6% (AMA CPT Panel establishes CPT code for a 3-anitgen Hep B vaccine), IGT -0.2% (will power sports betting at Coushatta Casino), MRK -0.1% (voluntarily withdraws accelerated approval for KEYTRUDA for adenocarcinoma indication), DDOG -0.1% (announces integration with Salesforce), OEC -0.1% (to increase prices on rubber carbon black products in EMEA), APO -0.1% (forms strategic partnership with Motive Partners to capitalize on fintech), CBU -0.1% (acquires retirement plan provider Fringe Benefits)

>>> US Close Dow +0,38% S&P +0,52% Nasdaq +0,13% Russell +0,81%

Closing Stock Market Summary

The S&P 500 rose 0.5% on Thursday, kicking off the third quarter with another pair of intraday and closing record highs. The Russell 2000 pulled ahead with a 0.8% gain, the Dow Jones Industrial Average kept pace with a 0.4% gain, and the Nasdaq Composite underperformed with a 0.1% gain.    

Value/cyclical stocks were at the forefront of a relatively broad-based advance, aided by encouraging manufacturing and initial claims data. Briefly, the June ISM Manufacturing Index checked in at 60.6% ( consensus 61.0%) for its 13th straight month above 50.0% (expansionary activity), and weekly initial claims declined to a post-pandemic low of 364,000 (consensus 400,000). 

Another tailwind, specifically for the energy stocks, was news that OPEC+ ministers reportedly reached a preliminary agreement to increase production by 400,000 bpd, starting in August and ending in December, which was less than expectations for a 500,000-bpd increase. A final agreement was reportedly delayed until tomorrow, though. 

The S&P 500 energy sector climbed 1.7%, as WTI crude futures ($75.23/bbl, +1.73, +2.4%) topped $75 per barrel. The utilities sector (+1.1%) also gained more than 1.0%, while the consumer staples sector (-0.3%) was the only sector that closed lower. 

The information technology sector (+0.1%) was held back by weakness in its semiconductor components following a disappointing earnings reaction in Micron (MU 80.11, -4.87, -5.7%). The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index fell 1.5%. NVIDIA (NVDA 808.48, +8.38, +1.1%) was a notable exception after its price target was raised to a Street-high $1000 from $750 at BMO Capital Markets.

Walgreens Boots Alliance (WBA 48.71, -3.90, -7.4%), meanwhile, suffered the same fate as Micron despite both companies reporting better-than-expected earnings results. WBA was the biggest loser in the consumer staples sector with a 7% decline. 

U.S. Treasuries ended the session mostly lower amid the positive bias in stocks and encouraging economic data, but there appeared to be a lack of conviction in front of the June employment report tomorrow. The 10-yr yield increased two basis points to 1.47% while the 2-yr yield was flat at 0.25%. The U.S. Dollar Index increased 0.1% to 92.55. 

Reviewing Thursday's economic data:

  • The June ISM Manufacturing Index checked in at 60.6% (consensus 61.0%), down from 61.2% in May. A number above 50.0% is indicative of expansion. June marked the 13th straight month of expansion for the manufacturing sector, albeit at a slightly slower pace than what was seen in May.
    • The key takeaway from the report is that it has validated the continuation of several trends: the manufacturing sector remains strong, inflation pressures are still prominent, and there is still difficulty in finding workers to meet the demand.
  • For the week ending June 26, initial claims decreased by 51,000 to 364,000 (consensus 400,000), which is the lowest level since March 14, 2020. Continuing claims for the week ending June 19 increased by 56,000 to 3.469 million.
    • The key takeaway from the report is that it shouldn't be a surprise to see initial jobless claims falling given the huge number of job openings there are and the increased reopening activity that is demanding new hires.
  • Total construction spending decreased 0.3% m/m in May (consensus +0.3%) following a downwardly revised 0.1% increase (from 0.2%) in April.
    • Total private construction declined 0.3% m/m while total public construction spending fell 0.2%.

Looking ahead, investors will receive the Employment Situation Report for June, the Trade Balance for May, and Factory Orders for May on Friday. 

  • Russell 2000 +18.0% YTD
  • S&P 500 +15.0% YTD
  • Dow Jones Industrial Average +13.2% YTD
  • Nasdaq Composite +12.7% YTD

>>> Europe : Brokers Upgrades & Downgrades - 1st of July 2021 V2(+)

>>> Up
* Ascential Raised to Buy at Berenberg; PT 485 pence
* Carlsberg PT Raised to 1,340 kroner at JPMorgan (+)
* Celanese Raised to Buy at Deutsche Bank; PT $175
* DSM PT Raised to 182 euros from 156 euros at Citi
* EssilorLuxottica Raised to Buy at Stifel; PT 173 euros
* Fraport Raised to Buy at Stifel; PT 75 euros
* LVMH PT Raised to 800 euros from 750 euros at Jefferies
* NCC Raised to Buy at Berenberg; PT 335 pence
* Senior Raised to Buy at Peel Hunt; PT 212 pence
* SocGen Raised to Buy at Deutsche Bank
* Volati Raised to Buy at Nordea

>>> Down
* BNP Paribas Cut to Hold at Deutsche Bank
* CTP Cut to Neutral at Goldman; PT 17.70 euros
* Dustin Cut to Hold at SEB Equities; PT 120 kronor (+)
* EssilorLuxottica Cut to Sector Perform at RBC; PT 160 euros
* Knorr-Bremse Cut to Hold at Stifel; PT 100 euros
* Partners Group Cut to Hold at Jefferies; PT 1,400 Swiss francs

>>> Initiation
* Allfunds Group Rated New Neutral at Autonomous Research
* Breedon Rated New Buy at HSBC; PT 128 pence
* Corticeira Amorim Rated New Outperform at Oddo BHF
* CTS Eventim Rated New Buy at Jefferies; PT 73 euros
* Logista Rated New Neutral at Oddo BHF; PT 18.80 euros
* OHB SE Rated New Buy at Stifel; PT 48 euros
* Tritax EuroBox Rated New Outperform at RBC; PT 130 pence
* Zooplus Rated New Hold at Jefferies; PT 260 euros

>>> Call
* CTS Eventim a Leader in Growing Market, Jefferies Initiates Buy
* DiaSorin New Buy at Intron Health on Covid Sales, Luminex Upside
* EssilorLuxottica Downgraded at RBC, ‘Meaningful’ Upside Lacking (+)
* JD Sports Update Shows Good Start to Fiscal Year: Peel Hunt (+)
* Senior Raised to Buy as Path to Recovery Gets Clearer: Peel Hunt
* Sodexo 3Q Sales Beat, 2H Guidance Lifted, Says RBC; Watch Elior
* Zooplus Hold at Jefferies, Topline Growth Yet to Reach Potential