Business Of Fashion : The Logic Behind LVMH’s Phoebe Philo Deal

The Logic Behind LVMH’s Phoebe Philo Deal
LVMH’s bet on Phoebe Philo’s new label keeps the star designer in the group’s orbit and gives it a new opportunity to experiment with a digital-first business model.

This week, news of Phoebe Philo’s return to fashion with her own label after a more than three-year hiatus thrilled the industry. But the chic minimalism she brought to former employer Celine — where she delivered a successful reboot for owners LVMH, growing annual revenue from €200 million to more than €700 million by the time she stepped down at the end of 2017 — has earned her a loyal fanbase of “Philophiles” that extends well beyond fashion insiders.

LVMH is backing Philo’s new venture in return for a minority stake in the brand, named simply Phoebe Philo. But the group that skilfully manages giants like Louis Vuitton and Dior has a poor track record with start-ups. Earlier this year, LVMH announced the shuttering of the Fenty fashion label it developed with pop star Rihanna less than two years after launch.

Can Philo’s new brand grow into a business that will move the needle for the world’s largest luxury group with a market capitalisation of almost $400 billion?

Smaller labels often struggle within conglomerates like LVMH for a few reasons. For a start, they are slapped with heavy corporate charges without really benefiting from many of the synergies that can come from being part of a group as their founders struggle to navigate internal politics and bureaucracy. But most of all, smaller labels are starved for attention from senior management, who are naturally focused on the big brands that dominate their portfolios.

For LVMH chief Bernard Arnault, successfully integrating Tiffany, the American jeweller the group recently acquired for $15.8 billion, is rightly top of mind and he is unlikely to have much headspace for the Phoebe Philo label.

At the same time, launching a new fashion brand with a star designer can be a very expensive and risky proposition. There is inherent risk in building a brand around a single individual. Plus, designers like Phoebe Philo come with big expectations, multi-million-dollar salaries, large creative teams and associated sampling and development costs.

Then, there’s the massive marketing expenditure required to generate awareness for a new brand. Even a superstar designer like Hedi Slimane, who has attracted a global following of “Slimaniacs,” is relatively unknown to mainstream consumers. Ditto Philo.

Factor in the high capital expenditure associated with high-gloss physical stores — still critical to the luxury business model — and the scarcity of appropriate retail real estate on the world’s most prestigious shopping streets and, all told, the investment required to launch a new luxury brand in the first few years alone can easily add up to $50 million or more.

Without an existing platform like Celine, which had 120 stores and €200 million in sales when Philo joined in 2008, realising a return on that investment can take a very long time.

Could this time be different?

The rise of digital distribution is a key variable. It’s far more possible to quickly scale a young brand online than in the physical world. The digital-first Fenty misadventure suggests that it’s not easy. But what ultimately sunk the Rihanna venture was a misalignment between the pop star’s fan base and Fenty’s prices. Poorly executed product only deepened the problem.

By contrast, the Phoebe Philo brand, positioned at the luxury end of the market, is a better fit for LVMH’s playbook and may be a safer place for the group to experiment with a digital-first business model. Philo’s famously anti-technology stance may prove a stumbling block, but time away from the industry may also have provided the designer with some new perspective and her strategy for the label could bypass the traditional fashion system and focus on digital channels.

Of course, LVMH may also have other motives for re-aligning itself with Philo. Whether or not the new brand scales, the investment is a smart defensive play. LVMH was surely eager to keep such a talented designer close and out of the hands of rivals. Backing her label may ultimately be a small price to pay for keeping her away from the likes of Chanel, Kering and Richemont, where she could one day prove a threat.

Keeping Philo close also leaves open the possibility that she could help LVMH with a bigger project in the future, energising ultra-luxury cashmere house Lora Piana, which recently launched its first major handbag, for example, or even bringing fresh ideas to one of LVMH’s biggest brands when a creative director vacancy opens up down the road.

Philo has thus far resisted taking on another job as big as Celine — and not for lack of offers. Plus, designing a major brand while simultaneously growing a new label demands almost superhuman, Karl Lagerfeld-like energy and pace that very few in the business have come close to matching. But keeping Phoebe Philo in its orbit offers LVMH unmistakable optionality.

“Keeping her within LVMH is a great move in itself,” said Bernstein analyst Luca Solca. “Having her to contribute to one of the major brands down the road would be a home run.”

FT : The company space race is a great story — but will it end happily?

The company space race is a great story — but will it end happily?
Seraphim Investment Trust is one to watch, but early adopters in new frontiers rarely prosper

Want to go to space? You probably can’t (it will cost $250,000 to ride in a billionaire’s space plane). But there is a chance your money can. This week, Seraphim Space Investment Trust, backed by Sir Richard Branson, listed in the UK.

There are some exchange trade funds in the area, but this is “the world’s first listed Space Tech Fund”, says its chair, Will Whitehorn, ex-president of Branson’s Virgin Galactic.

The idea is to invest in growth-stage space-related companies “which rely on space-based connectivity or precision, navigation and timing signals or whose technology or services are already addressing, originally derived from, or of potential benefit to the space sector”.

The first investments sound exciting. One, says Hargreaves Lansdown, is “Arqit, a British quantum technology encryption start-up constellation of ‘quantum key distribution’ satellites that use lasers to transmit unhackable . . . encryption keys” and which “has unicorn status with a valuation of more than $1bn, following its reverse merger via a Spac [special purpose acquisition company] with Centricus Acquisition Corp.”

A little outside the scope of my expertise, but still, exciting! Then there are various satellite companies, some firms with fabulous names such as Altitude Angel and PlanetWatchers and some more boring-sounding, but no less impressive in their aims. Commodity investors will for example be taken by the idea of Commodities AI, which “makes it easy to identify the optimum time to buy key metal, agricultural, energy, and plastic materials” by combining “cutting edge artificial intelligence with satellite data to deliver commodity price forecasts”. 

Who wouldn’t want to invest in this kind of final frontier cutting- edge technology, particularly in a month in which Branson has actually gone to the edge of space in his rocket plane? There’s more. The trust isn’t just jumping on one popular market story — it is jumping on two. Most of the companies, being newish, in the portfolio will not yet have listed.

So this isn’t just space investment. It is private equity space investment. It involves, at Seraphim, private equity return expectations of 20 per cent a year over the “long term” and, of course, private equity fees — think 1.25 per cent annually and a 15 per cent performance fee.

I love this story. So does everyone else. A few launches have failed recently. This one was oversubscribed. We shouldn’t be surprised. Investors love stories (the history of investment is really one of well-told stories) and this one fits neatly into the frenzied relationship between the market and new physical frontiers.

My favourite example is still the diving bell bubble of the late 1600s. This began in June 1687 when a ship arrived in England with 40 tonnes of silver and gold on board (worth £250,000 at the time — about £62m today). The loot had, says Peter Earle in his book Treasure Hunt, been raised by naked divers with no breathing equipment from the Concepción, a Spanish galleon wrecked 40 years previously.

The King of Spain was not impressed (his ambassador was sent to attempt to claim the treasure). Everyone else was. Suddenly every sailor knew how to find a wreck, every inventor knew how to breathe underwater, and every investor wanted to finance them to go a-wrecking at the bottom of the ocean. The first great promotional stock market boom in British history had begun. 

Imagine the kind of fun stuff you could have had with a new trust based on this. You’d have had your basics of course, shares in a couple of the expeditions . . . perhaps the Company for Recovering Treasure from Wrecks off Bermuda. Then you’d have had a few companies providing exciting technology to the expeditions. Perhaps The Company for Making Salt Water Fresh or The Company Owning the Diving Engine Invented by Joseph Williams. The latter would have come with a complicated prospectus about various types of ropes, pipes, lead shoes and copper armour. Complicated, but exciting!

You might even have chucked in a promise of offering dividends to charity, something historian William Scott notes some company promoters doing at the time. You get the idea. These days funds jumping on the ESG — environmental, social and governance — bandwagon promise to pay part of their management fee to charity and the new frontier is not the bottom of the sea, but the top of the atmosphere. 

Much of the rest is familiar. Diving bell inventors showed off their inventions to the monarch on the Thames. Branson has shown off to all of us by actually reaching the edge of space.

Both booms also involve too much money. In the late 1600s war had reduced trading opportunities and left “many wealthy men but a distinct lack of stimulating investment opportunities”. Today low interest rates have done much the same.

They also both involve new technology. It’s easy to be down on bubbles. But in his Constitution and Finance of English Scottish and Irish Joint Stock Companies to 1720, Scott notes that while it is true “that as a general rule two cases of outstanding profits in the same kind of venture rarely occur at one period” — and that almost all treasure-hunting expeditions were a complete failure there is, he said, more to be said in favour of the great treasure hunt than “at first sight might be anticipated”.

Think, he says, of the “great advance of invention.” Sure, the salt water thing didn’t work out. But the 17 patents applied for on early diving bells paved the way for the modern diving suit. A huge amount of value was created.

It’s just that it didn’t necessarily accrue to the first round of shareholders. The same was true of course of the railway and dotcom bubbles. 

The key point is this: Whitehorn tells us there is an “industrial revolution under way in space” that offers opportunities “out there above the atmosphere” and he’s right, just as there was an industrial revolution offering them below the ocean 300 years ago. But that doesn’t make it a safe investment.

When there is a lot of money chasing not quite enough opportunities, too many companies are started. Most will fail. Investors will sell out and make profits on the ones that do not go down too early but most will fail and much money will be lost (as it was when the bubble of the 1690s collapsed in 1697).

Stories really are just stories — not money. Something to keep in mind as you wonder whether to buy or not. I will be keeping an eye on the trust as a possible long-term punt. There will be a few big winners. I can’t pick them. Maybe, encouraged in part by an outrageous performance fee, Seraphim can. 

>>> US Gapping down

Gapping down
In reaction to earnings/guidance
:

  • AOUT -9.6%, ERIC -8.5%, ALV -5.5%, MRTN -3%

Other news:

  • FGEN -35.8% (reports FDA Advisory Committee recommended not approving Roxadustat)
  • TRQ -3.1% (provides Q2 production update for Oyu Tolgoi mine)
  • RIO -2% (reports Q2 production results; Pilbara iron ore production down 12% yr/yr)
  • LGF.A -1.2% (announces strategic alliance with Spyglass Media, including 20% investment stake)
  • ORMP -0.8% (files for $250 mln mixed securities shelf offering)
  • BMY -0.8% (reports CheckMate -651 trial did not meet primary endpoint)

Analyst comments:

  • DOW -0.9% (downgraded to Underperform from Neutral at BofA Securities)
  • LYB -0.8% (downgraded to Neutral from Buy at BofA Securities)
  • HOMB -0.7% (downgraded to Mkt Perform from Outperform at Raymond James)

>>> US Gapping up

Gapping up
In reaction to earnings/guidance
:

  • TAP +1.9% (also re-established dividend) WAL +1.8%, AA +1.3%

Other news:

  • MGI +10.8% (FT discusses rumors that private equity firm Advent might be interested in MGI)
  • CLXT +10.4% (names new CEO)
  • MRNA +7.9% (to join S&P 500)
  • HCM +5.5% (submits MAA to EMA for Surufatinib)
  • IBIO +4.6% (announces results from preclinical studies of COVID-19 vaccine candidate IBIO-202)
  • FUBO +4.5% (fuboTV and Cordish ink market access agreement for Fubo Sportsbook in PA)
  • PFDR +3.7% (to combine with ServiceMax)
  • ASTR +2.2% (stock offering)
  • ORGN +1.3% (stock offering)
  • HAL +1.1% (signs contract with Petrofac)
  • MEOH +1.1% (Methanex and Mitsui O.S.K agree on commercial terms for a strategic partnership)
  • ALK +1% (says it recorded positive pretax margin in June)

Analyst comments:

  • DNOW +2.9% (upgraded to Buy from Hold at Stifel)
  • HNST +2.4% (upgraded to Buy from Hold at Loop Capital)
  • CTAS +1.3% (upgraded to Outperform from Neutral at Robert W. Baird)
  • CMI +1.1% (upgraded to Outperform from Market Perform at Cowen)
  • ET +1.1% (upgraded to Outperform from Peer Perform at Wolfe Research)

FT : Volkswagen vows to boost China sales of electric cars after slow start

Volkswagen vows to boost China sales of electric cars after slow start
Country boss expects up to 100,000 cumulative deliveries of ID models by end of year

Volkswagen’s head of China has said the group will recover from a tepid launch of its electric models in the world’s largest car market, after fierce competition resulted in a disappointing early sales.

The world’s second-largest automaker delivered a total of 1.84m cars in China in the first half of the year, a rise of 16.2 per cent over the same period last year and just below the 1.92m units for 2019. VW’s premium brands Audi and Porsche notched record sales during the period.

But the group’s ID series of electric vehicles has failed to replicate its success in Europe in China, marking a setback for the global automaker’s €35bn electrification strategy.

“China is by far the most competitive [electric car] market in the world,” meaning that a new model needs six to eight months to establish sales, said Stephan Wöllenstein, chief executive of the Volkswagen Group China.

He added that the group expected cumulative deliveries of about 80,000 to 100,000 units across all ID models by the end of the year.

VW’s two ID.4 sport utility vehicle models, which were launched in March as the centrepiece of the group’s electrification strategy in China, reached just over 2,900 deliveries in June.

While an improvement over April and May sales, the figure is far below that for top-selling models. Tesla’s Model 3 and Model Y deliveries were 16,515 and 11,623 respectively that month. 

Yale Zhang, founder of Shanghai-based consultancy Automotive Foresight, said the ID models had failed to match local consumer expectations for electric car models for them to be distinct from traditional vehicles and come with a range of smart features.

“They look like a traditional vehicle. That’s fine in Europe, but not in China, because there are so many competitors with new models, whether from local EV start-ups or a localised Tesla,” he said.

China’s total electric vehicle sales have soared in the first half of 2021, with 1.2m cars being delivered, about the same as in all of 2019. After years of hovering at about 5 per cent of total automobile sales, the segment now routinely accounts for more than a tenth of total monthly deliveries. 

The government has set a goal for electric vehicles to account for 20 per cent of new sales by 2025. Deutsche Bank analysts forecasted in a note this week that sales in China of battery-powered electric vehicles could double this year to more than 2m units.

>>> US Early premarket gappers

Early premarket gappers

  • Gapping up:
    • MRNA +7.7%, IBIO +5.3%, HCM +5.3%, FUBO +4.3%, PFDR +3.7%, ASTR +2.4%, WAL +1.8%, HAL +1.2%, MEOH +1.1%, AAL +0.9%, LNG +0.8%, WRI +0.7%, SWN +0.6%, HOLI +0.5%, AA +0.5%
  • Gapping down:
    • FGEN -34.1%, AOUT -11.2%, ERIC -9%, NEXT -3%, MRTN -2.6%, CLXT -2.4%, RIO -2.3%, TRQ -1.7%, LGF.A -1.2%, ORMP -0.8%

WWD : Richemont’s Q1 Sales Jumped 22% Ahead of 2019

Richemont’s Q1 Sales Jumped 22% Ahead of 2019
The gains were driven by brisk business in the Americas - up 47 percent versus 2019 - and Asia-Pacific.

In another sign of luxury’s resilience – and pent-up demand – Compagnie Financière Richemont saw revenues bound 22 percent ahead of pre-pandemic levels in its first quarter ended June 30.
The gains were driven by brisk business in the Americas – up 47 percent versus 2019 – and Asia-Pacific, up 40 percent and with “good momentum” in Mainland China, Macau and South Korea.
Europe was the laggard, where sales contracted 15 percent in the three months. Richemont said “robust demand from local clientele could not offset the halt in tourist sales.”
Revenues in the Middle East and Africa zoomed ahead 55 percent, boosted by domestic and tourist spending in Dubai and Saudi Arabia.

Compared to the first quarter of 2020, group sales at Richemont rocketed 129 percent at constant exchange rates and 121 percent at actual exchange rates.


In a research note, RBC analyst Piral Dadhania applauded the stronger-than-expected results – which came in 10 percent above consensus.
“We would expect these results to be positively received by the market, which demonstrate ongoing momentum in Richemont’s key divisions,” Dadhania noted.
The Swiss luxury group trumpeted 43 percent growth at its jewelry maisons, headlined by strong jewelry and watch sales at Cartier and Van Cleef & Arpels. Sales at its specialist watchmaker – which include A. Lange & Söhne, Baume & Mercier, IWC Schaffhausen, Jaeger-LeCoultre, Panerai and Vacheron Constantin – grew by 6 percent.

Cartier’s Phaan ring Maxime Govet © Cartier
Other business, which include the fashion and accessories houses Alaïa, AZ Factory, Chloé, Dunhill, Montblanc and Peter Millar, declined 7 percent, with Richemont blaming “challenges in the wholesale channel, particularly in travel retail.”
By channel, retail sales were up 35 percent versus 2019 and particularly strong in the U.S., Russia and Saudi Arabia, according to Richemont.
Online sales rose 29 percent, while the wholesale channel eased 3 percent.
In tandem with the quarterly results announcement, Richemont said several of its top brand executives would relinquish their roles on the senior executive committee and board of directors.
Richemont said the changes in governance stem from “the ongoing pandemic and the continued acceleration of ‘new retail.'”
“To further capitalize on our group’s agility and momentum, the senior executive committee will focus solely on strategic direction, capital allocation, governance, and the provision of central and regional functions for the benefit of our maisons and businesses,” Richemont said. “Similarly, the executives in charge of our maisons and businesses will focus exclusively on the sustainable development of their respective entities, ensuring a customer-centric approach and the continued success of digital initiatives.”
Cyrille Vigneron, president and chief executive officer of Cartier, and Nicolas Bos, president and CEO of Van Cleef & Arpels, are to step down from the senior executive committee and will not seek re-election to the board of directors at the group’s AGM on Sept. 8. They continue to report directly to chairman Johann Rupert.
Philippe Fortunato, CEO of fashion and accessories, Emmanuel Perrin, head of specialist watchmakers distribution, and Frank Vivier, chief transformation officer, are also to step down from the senior executive committee. The three men continue to report to group CEO Jérôme Lambert.


Rupert, Lambert and Burkhart Grund, chief finance officer, are to remain on the senior executive committee and stand for re-election to the board of directors on Sept. 8.
“A stronger and more commercial product line-up at Cartier with better execution, ongoing Van Cleef strength and longer-term growth prospects for Buccellati underpin the earnings and (free cash flow) engine within Richemont,” Dadhania noted.

>>> Stoxx 600 Pre-Market Indications

  • Glaxo (GS7 TH) +1.6%
  • Vodafone (VODI TH) +1.5%
  • Siemens Gamesa (GTQ1 TH) +1.4%
  • Telefonica (TNE5 TH) +1.1%
  • BP (BPE5 TH) +1%
  • BT (BTQ TH) +0.9%
  • Tomra (TMR TH) +0.9%
    • Tomra 2Q EPS Beats Estimates
  • Alstom (AOMD TH) +0.7%
  • Umicore (NVJP TH) +0.6%
  • Puma (PUM TH) +0.6%
    • Puma Raises Full-Year Profit Guidance on Sales Rebound
  • Munich Re (MUV2 TH) -0.6%
  • Axa (AXA TH) -0.8%
  • ING (INN1 TH) -0.8%
  • Hannover Re (HNR1 TH) -1%
  • Evotec SE (EVT TH) -1.2%
  • Essity (ESWB TH) -1.3%
    • Essity 2Q Adjusted Operating Profit Misses Estimates
  • Aviva (GU8 TH) -1.3%
  • AstraZeneca (ZEG TH) -1.6%
  • Nel (D7G TH) -3.5%
  • Ericsson (ERCB TH) -4.6%
    • Ericsson CEO Expects Hit to China Business After Huawei Ban (1)

>>> TradeGate Pre-Market Indications

DAX:
  • Infineon (IFX TH) +0.4%
  • Adidas (ADS TH) +0.4%
  • Deutsche Bank (DBK TH) -0.6%
  • Munich Re (MUV2 TH) -0.7%
  • Allianz (ALV TH) -0.7%
    • Pimco Must Face Female Workers’ ‘Fraternity Culture’ Lawsuit
MDAX:
  • Puma (PUM TH) +1.2%
    • Puma Raises Full-Year Profit Guidance on Sales Rebound
  • MorphoSys (MOR TH) +1.2%
  • Telefonica Deutschland (O2D TH) +1.1%
  • Lufthansa (LHA TH) +0.6%
    • Watch Airlines as Biden Says Weighing Lifting Europe Travel Ban
  • Hochtief (HOT TH) +0.6%
  • Hugo Boss (BOSS TH) -0.4%
  • Fuchs Petrolub (FPE3 TH) -0.5%
  • Evotec SE (EVT TH) -0.6%
    • Evotec SE Cut to Hold at Stifel; PT 38.50 euros
  • Aixtron (AIXA TH) -0.9%
  • Hannover Re (HNR1 TH) -1%
SDAX:
  • Jenoptik (JEN TH) +6.7%
    • Jenoptik FY Revenue Forecast Beats Estimates
  • Krones (KRN TH) +1.1%
    • Krones Raised to Buy at Baader Helvea; PT 100 euros
  • Grenke (GLJ TH) +1.1%
  • ADVA Optical (ADV TH) +0.5%
  • SGL (SGL TH) +0.4%
  • Schaeffler (SHA TH) -0.5%
  • Kloeckner (KCO TH) -1%
  • Suedzucker (SZU TH) -1%