WSJ : West Bakes in Another Weekend of Intense Heat as Wildfires Spread

West Bakes in Another Weekend of Intense Heat as Wildfires Spread
Some communities say blazes complicate plans for a return of tourism after halt during Covid-19 pandemic

Intense heat began engulfing the Northern Rockies and High Plains, while high temperatures and dry air made matters worse for firefighters working to control dozens of wildfires burning across the parched West.

State leaders had issued emergency orders activating resources before the weekend, while some local communities said the blazes were complicating plans for a resurgence of tourism and local events after an interruption during the Covid-19 pandemic.

Heat waves have already engulfed Western states this summer, including one in June that left more than 100 people dead in the Pacific Northwest. Now a “heat dome” is expected to bring stifling temperatures over the weekend and early next week to the Northern Rockies and High Plains, including parts of Idaho, Montana, Utah and Wyoming, according to an AccuWeather forecast.

It will be “dangerously hot, especially for those that are more vulnerable to the heat,” said John Wetenkamp, the science and operations officer for the National Weather Service in Billings, Mont., which put out an excessive-heat warning for noon Saturday through late Thursday.

July has already brought some scorching days to parts of Montana, he said, but residents now face a succession of them. Temperatures in Billings were climbing Saturday and could hit 102 degrees on Sunday and 105 on Monday—potentially breaking a record set in 1960.

There was, however, a chance that smoke from nearby wildfires could reduce some of the heat, according to AccuWeather.

Meanwhile, officials in several states said the long-term drought, low humidity and heat are making it harder to handle fires.

The largest fire currently burning in the U.S., the Bootleg Fire in south central Oregon, was 22% contained Saturday morning after growing by 40,000 acres Friday night and was sprawled over 281,208 acres, said Marcus Kauffman, a spokesman for the Oregon Department of Forestry.

Temperatures in the area of the Bootleg Fire are about 5 to 10 degrees above normal, though they still aren’t as high as a few weeks ago, said Misty Firmin, a meteorologist with the National Weather Service in Medford, Ore.

The safety concern isn’t so much the warm weather as the low humidity, dry and gusty winds and vegetation that is much drier than normal for mid-July.

“Tinder dry,” Mr. Kauffman, of the Oregon forestry department, said of grass, shrubs, brush and trees there. “If there’s a spark that flies from that fire, it will ignite.”

The fires are generating their own extreme weather. The U.S. Naval Research Laboratory said Friday that current wildfires are generating a record number of pyrocumulonimbus clouds—created by intense heat driving air rapidly upward from a fire.

This phenomenon has occurred in the Bootleg Fire, pulling embers, branches, leaves and particulates aloft in a column that then comes down with a force that intensifies the blaze, said Mr. Kauffman.

Nationally the current fire season has so far been on par with recent years. More than 70 large active fires have burned nearly one million acres across the West.

Washington Gov. Jay Inslee on Friday declared a state of emergency in 19 counties, saying unprecedented heat there caused failures to roads, bridge joints and other types of infrastructure.

In California, Gov. Gavin Newsom declared a state of emergency in three Northern California counties that have endured evacuations and damages to critical infrastructure from the Beckwourth Complex Fire—lightning-induced blazes that as of Saturday totaled 105,348 acres and were 70% contained.

‘There’s really no relief in sight for the next several days.’— John Wetenkamp, National Weather Service
In Lassen County, which is included in the emergency order, organizers were working Saturday to prepare for the county fair. After a cancellation last year, this year’s slogan is “Back in the Saddle Again.”

Fire evacuees who were sheltering at the fairgrounds have been moved to Lassen Community College, said Holly Mueller, vice president of the fair advisory board. “Everybody is all hands on deck to make the fair happen,” she said. “Just to be able to draw the community back together.”

In a sign that the West’s drought is getting worse, the U.S. Bureau of Reclamation announced Friday that it was taking the unprecedented action of releasing more water from reservoirs upstream to Lake Powell to help keep its level high enough for power generation.

The lake, which straddles the Arizona-Utah border, has fallen to a third of its capacity during drought conditions for much of the past two decades.

Lake Powell serves as the largest holder of Colorado River water after Nevada’s Lake Mead, and the turbines at Glen Canyon Dam generate power across the Southwest. According to the federal agency’s forecast released Friday, there is a 79% chance of Lake Powell’s falling under a threshold below which a power cutoff could occur.

In all, 181,000 acre-feet of extra water will be released through the end of the year from Flaming Gorge Reservoir in Wyoming, Blue Mesa Reservoir in Colorado and Navajo Reservoir in New Mexico to raise Lake Powell by 3 feet.

“We hoped we would never have to go down this road, but now we have to,” Wayne Pullan, the bureau’s regional director in Salt Lake City, said in a video briefing with the media Friday.

WSJ : First Covid-19 Infections Among Athletes in Olympic Village Are Confirmed

First Covid-19 Infections Among Athletes in Olympic Village Are Confirmed
The two, who are from the same country and compete in the same sport, have been moved to quarantine

TOKYO—Two athletes staying at the Olympic Village in Tokyo have tested positive for Covid-19, the organizers of the Games said.

The infections are the first confirmed cases among athletes in the village. The two athletes have been moved into a 14-day quarantine, the organizers said on Sunday.

The athletes are from the same country and compete in the same sport, a spokesman for the organizers said. Others who have been in close contact with them have been asked to isolate, he said.

Another athlete who isn’t staying in the village tested positive on arrival in Japan, as did International Olympic Committee member Ryu Seung-min from South Korea, the organizers said.

A total of 55 people connected to the Olympics, including officials and contractors working on the Summer Games, have tested positive since July 1, according to data from the organizers.

The organizers say extensive testing for Olympic participants, including before travel to Japan, on arrival and throughout the Games, as well as social-distancing and quarantine regulations, will prevent a widespread outbreak of the virus. Athletes are tested each day during their stay. The organizers say over 80% of athletes are fully vaccinated.

“The participants of the Olympic Games are the most controlled population in the world,” IOC Olympic Games Operations Director Pierre Ducrey said.

Since the beginning of July, around 18,000 people have entered Japan for the Olympics, the organizers said. The Games open on Friday.

On Saturday, the organizers of the Games said a person who wasn’t an athlete but was staying in the Olympic Village had tested positive. Some coaches and officials are staying in the village, which will be the main residence for around 11,000 athletes.

FT : Inditex and the future of retail: ‘Don’t believe in the death of the high s

Inditex and the future of retail: ‘Don’t believe in the death of the high street’
The Spanish retailer is betting on a hybrid model that uses stores as a shop window and also mini-distribution hubs

The two silver boxes, about 2 metres in height, look more like dry cleaning units than a big step towards the future of retail. But, as a line of trousers on hangers sways its way through them, it is the start of a tracking system that has helped the world’s biggest clothing seller bounce back from the pandemic.

The process is vital to the success of Inditex, the Spanish fashion group best known for its Zara brand, in capitalising on its network of 6,700 stores across the world — even when they were almost all closed due to Covid curbs.

The task performed at the company’s headquarters by the two boxes, and about 150 others like them throughout the company’s network, is to give unique identifiers to each of the more than 1bn clothes Inditex handles each year, so they can be tracked across the globe until they are in shoppers’ hands.

That has allowed Inditex to turn its stores into mini-distribution hubs — merging its online and bricks and mortar presence, reducing inventories, and helping the company emerge from its biggest test ever since the opening of the first Zara store 46 years ago.

Anne Critchlow, an analyst at Société Générale, says very few retailers have the ability to fulfil online orders in a cost-effective way using the stock found in stores.

“Inditex has the technology to do this: its store network gives it the equivalent of more than 6,000 local warehouses that can ship orders quicker and at less cost because they are so close to customers,” she says.

The tracking technology, known as radio-frequency identification or RFID, depends on tiny circuits and antennas hidden in security tags fastened to clothing in Inditex’s factories. The rollout for the group — which also includes the Massimo Dutti, Pull&Bear and Stradivarius brands — was a decade-long effort completed at the end of 2019, in what looks in retrospect to be perfect timing for the pandemic.

The company only began taking orders for clothing online in 2010 — a decade after H&M. In 2019, online represented just 14 per cent of its €28bn in sales. But last year that proportion jumped to 32 per cent as the group used backrooms in its stores across the world to pack and dispatch €1.2bn of clothing customers ordered on mobiles and computers, in addition to more conventional shipments. 

By 2020’s end, Inditex’s online revenues had soared 77 per cent, more than three times the 22 per cent overall rise in the global online clothing and footwear market.

“Since we began our sales online, it has been an obsession with me that it has to be fully integrated with the stores,” says Pablo Isla, executive chair of Inditex, who has headed the company for more than 15 years. “We never wanted to do a separate business online . . . although with [online] sales last year of €6.6bn we are world leaders in online fashion.” 

In effect, Inditex is betting the industry’s future rests on a hybrid model that marries bricks and mortar and mobile apps and maintains its commitment to stores, even as many of its rivals close outlets and new online-only retailers mount a formidable challenge with lower prices and a wider range of products.

“Different business models can always be successful in a sector. But ours has a lot of potential and a long way to go,” says Isla. “I don’t believe this stuff about the death of the high street at all.”

The company says one of the reasons why its stores remain so integral to its operations is because they are still the best place to see what works — which clothes people make a beeline for, what products walk off the shelf.

“With the pandemic receding, everyone is trying to recalibrate the balance between the online and the real world and Inditex has invested big in an approach that tries to deliver a seamless experience between the two,” says Critchlow. “Their approach worked fantastically during the pandemic and may reduce costs still further this year, but how it fares over the long term could well shape the future of retail.”

Swift supply chains
In a country where blue-chip companies tend to be in regulated industries — banks or utilities — Inditex stands out for not depending on the government and for having made its own way.

More than anyone else, that way was forged by one man: Amancio Ortega, its reclusive 85-year-old founder. Ortega still owns almost 60 per cent of the stock, making him one of the world’s richest people, with net assets estimated at close to $70bn, mostly held through Pontegadea, his personal investment vehicle, which specialises in prime real estate across the world. 

He stepped down as Inditex chair in 2011, focusing on Pontegadea’s investments, but his attention snapped back to the retailer during the crisis, as concern mounted about the business.

“The culture of the company reflects Amancio Ortega’s personality,” says Isla, who says he and Ortega are in “permanent contact”.

Isla remembers watching events in China — where Inditex has 320 stores — and Italy — where it has 350 — with dismay, until the company took a decision on March 9 last year to halt new stock-buying while honouring existing orders. A week later, it wrote off €287m in inventories and suspended dividends. For the three months to the end of April, it reported its first loss as a public company — of €409m.

“For the first two or three weeks we were all in shock, no one was thinking about buying [clothes],” he adds, noting that in the depths of the crisis the company focused on using its freight capacity and logistical knowhow to get medical equipment from China to Spain. 

But Inditex was able to get access to its shops from mid-April last year, fulfilling online orders from them, thanks to its tracking system, even while they were closed.

Because of its fast supply chains — just three weeks between design approval and going on sale — Inditex can alter and add to its range in midseason, responding to consumer demand. It churns out 65,000 new designs a year, delivering the latest garments to its network of stores at least twice a week.

The group says its approach is based on “pull” rather than “push”. Inditex does not spend significantly on advertising, but 20m people view its products every day online on its apps or social media. It prefers to buy prime locations for its outlets. Prime real estate — Ortega’s big bet in investing his personal fortune — remains at the heart of what Inditex does.

“The essence of our strategy at Inditex is the same as ever: flexibility in our business model, the integration of logistics, manufacture and design; production close to hand; and a capacity to react from moment to moment,” says Isla. 

“But now we have the integration between the digital and physical on top of that . . . 2020 was a key year in the strategic transformation of the company, from every point of view.”

Sustainability pressures
Even amid the turmoil of the past year, the fate of the group’s brick and mortar stores is not the only existential question facing Inditex. It is also having to grapple with criticism over the sustainability of its business model and labour conditions at some of its suppliers.

“Inditex has pioneered a model that is logistically outstanding and has superb, responsive information systems that focus on novelty,” says Carmen Valor Martínez, a sustainable fashion expert at Comillas Pontifical University in Madrid.

“But for the environment this emphasis on the constantly new — clothes you might wear just twice — has been a disaster. To be fair, Inditex has been adjusting its model; but to be sustainable, it’s a model that needs to be broken with, not just tweaked.”

Inditex replies it has steadily increased sustainability — committing to zero waste to landfills and the end of single-use plastics by 2023.

Last week it unveiled more ambitious goals, including to use 25 per cent less water by 2025 and increase revenues from its more sustainable Join Life label to more than half of all sales next year. “It is a total bet on sustainability,” says Isla.

Labour practices are also in the spotlight. This month, French prosecutors opened a probe into Zara and three other fashion brands over the alleged use of forced labour by Muslim minority Uyghurs in China’s Xinjiang province — one of the world’s cotton production centres.

Inditex says it has “zero tolerance for all forms of forced labour” and “rigorous traceability controls” for its supply chain. It does not have factories in Xinjiang. But officials are reluctant to make any statement to that effect. After rival H&M announced last year that it would no longer source cotton from Xinjiang, Chinese state-backed media and social media users launched a mass boycott of the Swedish retailer in March.

Inditex swiftly scrubbed its website of a statement that confirmed it did “not have commercial relations with any factory in Xinjiang” — a move that signals that it, like other multinationals, is vulnerable to pressure from Chinese consumers and the Chinese state.

Intense competition
Inditex’s 700 designers work solely out of its headquarters at Arteixo in the region of Galicia. They say people are hungry for a burst of colour after months of lockdown. One of the styles they are preparing is the “Camden look” — an eclectic mix of the colourful and the classic, mixing wool and cotton, checkered shirts and jeans.

Such calculations have a record of success. Inditex tweaks its offer based on local preferences and information. As of May, it has managed to surpass its 2019 levels of sales, despite remaining restrictions, as customers anticipate the end of the pandemic. 

Isla signals optimism that increased profitability may put the group’s share price, which has bumped along below its 2017 peak, on a sustainable upward path. Total capital expenditure is set to dip from its level in recent years — which he says should increase operating cash flow.

The company is still planning significant investments — including €1.7bn on stores and €1bn on technology over three years. But it is winding up a €11bn programme dating back to 2012 and mainly intended to open, refurbish and merge stores while integrating them into the group’s IT system. It is maintaining a goal of increasing gross retail space by 2.5 per cent a year while focusing on bigger, better situated stores.

“These days Inditex is not necessarily a high growth model, but what it increasingly looks like is a gigantic cash generating machine,” says SocGen’s Critchlow.

There are other challenges facing the group. Some 15 per cent of Inditex’s revenues still come from Spain, an economy battered by the pandemic like no other, which means that overall growth will depend on other markets.

Competition is also becoming more intense, not just from rivals but also from online-only groups such as China’s Shein which offer a bigger range of products than physical stores — at lower prices, with a still shorter time between product design and delivery than Inditex’s own supply chain. In an indication of the pressures facing fashion retailers, Gap said last month it would close all its UK stores.

Jacqueline Windsor, a partner in PwC’s UK practice specialising in retail, says: “For an incumbent, Zara is pretty sharp, but the reality is that these disruptive models are going after the clothing wallet.”

She adds: “While it’s true that Zara serves a wider customer market that’s relatively older and more affluent, where sustainable, ethical credentials could be an important advantage, the question is how brave will Inditex be in moving into new areas.”

Windsor contends the word “retail” fails to capture the world where companies such as Inditex now operate — with competition from social media, groups focusing on second-hand clothes and rentals, or online marketplaces that hold no stock of their own.

In Arteixo, Inditex is betting that, for all the changes — accelerated during the pandemic — a big part of the industry will remain familiar: people going to stores and trying clothes on. After 2020’s spike in digital sales, the group expects online to grow more slowly, although steadily, this year and after.

Meanwhile, some online fashion retailers have begun to flirt with bricks and mortar. This week Asos and Boohoo announced partnerships with Nordstrom in the US and Alshaya in the Middle East respectively to sell their labels in physical stores.

“The strategy we are developing — full integration between the physical and the digital, managing the company with even less stock, betting on sustainability — is delivering results,” says Isla, who enthuses about the number of people he saw on a recent trip to the group’s Paris and Milan stores.

But it is also a strategy that looks back to the cautious innovation of Amancio Ortega. The Inditex founder would make relatively few items of clothing and see how they sold before committing more heavily, taking advantage of his group’s vertical integration between manufacturing and retail even when it was at a far smaller scale. 

Decades and billions of items of clothing later, Inditex is maintaining Ortega’s emphasis on the importance of real estate and keeping to the basic tenet of his approach: to make what it sells, rather than to sell what it makes.

Barrons : Stocks Are Pricey. 42 Bargains From Barron’s Roundtable Investing Expe

Stocks Are Pricey. 42 Bargains From Barron’s Roundtable Investing Experts.

* Todd Ahlsten's Picks

* Scott Black's Picks

* Meryl Witmer's Picks

* Mario Gabelli's Picks

* Rupal J. Bhansali's Picks

* Henry Ellenbogen's Picks

* Sonal Desai's Picks

* Abby Joseph Cohen's Picks

* William Priest's Picks

* James Anderson

>>> Barron’s Weekend Summary

Barron’s Weekend Summary: Ultralow interest rates and ultrahigh spending by the Federal Reserve and the federal government helped the U.S. economy not only survive the devastating impact of the Covid-19 pandemic, but also thrive in its near aftermath

* Cover Story
“Ultralow interest rates and ultrahigh spending by the Federal Reserve and the federal government helped the U.S. economy not only survive the devastating impact of the Covid-19 pandemic, but also thrive in its near aftermath.” The members of the Barron’s Roundtable discuss “with their customary candor and zest” the state of the markets and suggest 42 ‘bargain’ stocks to consider in this midyear investment update.

* Tech Trader:
The tech earnings season begins in the coming week, and Barron’s has a preview of what might be expected as “IBM, Netflix, Intel, Twitter, SAP, AT&T, Seagate, Texas Instruments, and Snap all due to report June-quarter results.” Barrons says investors can “expect strength across the tech landscape, but there are considerable cross currents: Hardware and chips companies will be hampered by component shortages. Stay-at-home plays will likely see moderating growth. It should still be a strong quarter for handsets, cloud computing, online advertising, and e-commerce.”

* Trader
Barron’s suggests that “the easy money has long ago been made in the postpandemic bull run, and that markets and the economy are entering more uncertain, midcycle times.” Consequently, quality stocks have gained favor again, “kicking some of the recent quarters’ biggest winners to the curb.” The suggestion is to consider “quality, predictability, and safety,” according to Robert Phipps, director at Per Stirling Capital Management. “Phipps points to Big Tech stocks like Apple (AAPL), Alphabet (GOOGL), and Facebook (FB) as beneficiaries of such an environment.”

* Features:
While retirement “spells the end of the prototypical 40-hour workweek for many Americans, for some it marks the start of a second act in coaching or consulting.” But, starting a new career is “not as simple as hanging up a shingle and waiting for the business to roll in.” Rather, argues Barron’s, “Managing a successful transition takes planning, which could mean laying the groundwork a year or more before leaving your full-time job.”

Zoetis (ZTS) shares “closed down marginally after Raymond James downgraded the company from Outperform to Market Perform while maintaining the same $192 price target.” Zoetis claims to be “the world’s largest animal-health company” has enjoyed a good year so far, “with shares gaining 22% compared with the S&P 500 index’s 17.4% return.” And, Raymond James analyst Elliot Wilbur said “the stock has outperformed the ProShares Pet Care exchange-traded fund (PAWZ) by 11% year to date.”

Bill Gates, Cathie Wood, and venture capitalist John Doerr are investing in synthetic biology companies. And the proponents suggest that this sector has a total addressable market of over $1 trillion. “Synthetic biology is in its infancy, but it’s drawing comparisons to the internet of a generation ago.” Synthetic biology has attracted investors with its promise of “programming the DNA of microorganisms like yeast as if they were computers and getting them to produce products more cheaply and with a lower carbon footprint than traditional manufacturing. Synthetic biology could reduce the need for petroleum-based chemicals as well as for plant- and animal-based products, benefiting the environment.”

* Europe :
The Barron’s Roundtable (see this week’s feature) addresses a question many are asking: “Why should investors pay attention to the cryptocurrency market? Does crypto belong in an investment portfolio?”
The Roundtable, better known for analyzing companies and stocks realize that these ‘traditional’ investments “must now compete for investors’ attention with lots of new-ish assets, some based on novel technologies and prone to extreme volatility.” That’s why the panelists suggest that “anyone interested in markets, technology, and disruptioncan’t help but follow developments in crypto, blockchain, nonfungible tokens, central bank digital currencies, and decentralized finance.”
Ericsson (ERIC) shares fell by around 8%. The problem is that Ericsson, a manufacturer of both 4G and 5G telecom equipment, has a big problem in China because of geopolitical tensions related to 5G equipment that “have put the Swedish telecom company under pressure in a key market, with a significant decline in Chinese business in the second quarter of 2021 weighing down otherwise strong financial results.”
The Delta variant of the coronavirus has all but eliminated optimism for a stock-market recovery of UK based travel companies. For example, Whitbread (WTB.UK), which owns the Premier Inn hotel chain, has dropped 17% over the past three months, which is 41% below January 2020 levels. Nevertheless, Peel Hunt analysts believe at this price, Whitbread is a buying opportunity.

* Emerging Markets:
Covid’s so-called Delta variant is moving across the East Asian growth belt, and affected growth in key regional economic centers. “Indonesia lately seized the crown of pandemic epicenter, with cases quadrupling in a month. Markets remain largely unperturbed. “Our baseline scenario is that this won’t be very disruptive,” says Alejo Czerwonko, chief investment officer for Americas Emerging Markets at UBS Global Wealth Management.”

* Commodities:
There’s no time like the present for homeowners and home builders to stack up their lumber supplies. After a bullish 2020, when prices doubled, “lumber futures have dropped to their lowest level of 2021, on track to suffer a third-straight monthly decline—potentially offering a ‘small window’ for buyers to benefit from cheaper prices.”

* Streetwise:
“The coming week could bring new clues about whether subscription fatigue is setting in faster than expected.” Some key entertainment platforms are reporting their quarterly results in the coming week. Netflix (NFLX) reports on Tuesday evening, and AT&T (T), which owns HBO, reports Thursday morning. “In April, Netflix said it had added four million subscribers during the first quarter, but Wall Street was looking for six million, and the shares fell 7% in a day. Since then, the second-quarter new subs estimate has fallen to 1.8 million from 4.4 million.”

Barrons : This Pharmaceutical Stock Has Been Beaten Up. It Could Soar 65%.

This Pharmaceutical Stock Has Been Beaten Up. It Could Soar 65%.

PharmaSGP, a small German pharmaceutical company that makes nonprescription drugs and health-care products, stumbled during the pandemic.

About 70% of its sales come from pharmacies and shops that sell its chemical-free products for pain relief and other ailments including vertigo, skin aging, and sexual dysfunction. Staff at its wholesale partner were sidelined with coronavirus, which meant delays in listing new products so retailers could place orders. Some deliveries were also delayed to a key market.

Revenue for this Munich-based company (ticker: PSG.Germany) was down 26% in the first quarter, compared with the same period last year. The shares are off about 16% so far this year to a recent 21.10 euros ($24.91).

But the company has a strong pipeline of new products waiting to be launched, and the market for natural therapeutics remains strong. In addition, PharmaSGP isn’t yet on the radar of big investors. All of this makes the stock a buying opportunity.

Consumer trends “support strong growth and premium prices for chemical-free products,’’ Charlotte Friedrichs, an analyst at Berenberg, writes in a research note. She estimates the stock could rise to €35.

“The company’s success in building strong brands and its direct-to-consumer marketing approach have enabled it to outgrow the market,” she says.

Another catalyst for growth is international expansion. PharmaSGP’s products are now sold in European countries including Austria, Italy, Belgium, Spain, and France, and the company is looking for pandemic restrictions to lift in other markets before expanding further.

Its international division fared better in the first quarter, with sales down 18%, compared with a 33% decline in its key German market.

All international markets are managed from its Germany headquarters. The company uses 50 suppliers, with manufacturing subcontracted to partners. PharmaSGP also generates revenue by selling its products online through third-party partners.

The company is also expanding lines of its existing brands to provide them in various forms including tablets, liquid drops, drinks, and creams, and adding new products to treat sleep disorders and anxiety.

The business employs just 67 workers and has a market value of €267 million. It fetches a multiple of 19.2 times this year’s expected earnings and is valued at a 20% discount to its peers.

In 2020, PharmaSGP posted adjusted earnings before interest and taxes of €16.5 million, down from €22.4 million in 2019. Revenue was €63.2 million.

CEO Natalie Weigand says in a statement to Barron’s that the company is “fully convinced” of its business model that is “asset light,” sells direct to consumers, and has a pan-European reach.

She also said PharmaSGP is on the acquisition trail. The firm bought four brands in June from GlaxoSmithKline (GSK) for €80 million. These were over-the-counter products for pain relief and insomnia, including Baldriparan, a sleep-aid product sold in pharmacies in Germany.

“The attractive business opportunities for PharmaSGP are also reflected in our latest acquisition from GSK,” Weigand tells Barrons.

Grand View Research estimates that the alternative medicine market will be worth $404.6 billion by 2028. An aging population gravitating to chemical-free medications provided by PharmaSGP means the company is bound to profit from this niche. And that could give investors a good feeling about the stock.

Barrons : SAP Is Moving to the Cloud. Investors Have Yet to Give the Company Cre

SAP Is Moving to the Cloud. Investors Have Yet to Give the Company Credit.

Next year, the German enterprise software giant SAP will celebrate its 50th birthday. Investors should consider crashing the party.

Founded in 1972 by a group of former IBM software engineers, SAP sells enterprise resource-planning software. ERP software helps companies run their day-to-day operations, including accounting, compliance, supply chains, and other financial functions. SAP (ticker: SAP) and rival Oracle (ORCL) have long been leaders in the $40 billion industry.

Historically, ERP software has been run inside corporate data centers, but the cloud is making those on-premises facilities increasingly obsolete and forcing ERP providers to adjust their strategy. Oracle has been ahead of SAP in the cloud transition—in the latest quarter, revenue from Oracle’s flagship cloud-based Fusion ERP software was up 46%, while SAP’s newer, rival cloud product was up 36%. SAP’s total cloud-based revenue grew 7% in the quarter.

The pivotal moment for SAP investors came in October, when the company warned that the pandemic was having a more substantial impact on its business than expected. The company surprised investors with reduced guidance, triggering a 23% selloff in the stock.

In 2020, SAP saw its first revenue decline since 2009. This year, revenue should be up slightly to 27 billion euros ($32 billion), with earnings roughly flat at €5.32 per share.

SAP has vowed to accelerate its shift to the cloud. The transformation will take time, and that’s where the opportunity lies.

In an interview with Barron’s, CEO Christian Klein says SAP expects to triple its revenue from the cloud by 2025. While some of that will come from shifting existing customers to the cloud, he says 40% of cloud revenue has been coming from new client wins.

It’s a crucial moment for Klein, 41, who is one of the software industry’s youngest leaders. The German-born executive had spent his entire career at SAP before being named co-CEO in 2019 along with Jennifer Morgan, an American executive who joined SAP in 2004. Morgan’s tenure was short lived, though, and Klein was named sole CEO in April 2020.

Klein is leading SAP through a tumultuous period; as he notes, the shift to the cloud always causes short-term financial reporting issues. Adobe (ADBE), Autodesk (ADSK), and Microsoft (MSFT) went through similar near-term pain, but investors ultimately rewarded their transitions.

“The nature of the cloud business is you recognize revenue over time versus all upfront,” Klein says.

“In Q1, we already saw [our] cloud revenue backlog up, which is a future indicator of our revenue stream,” the CEO adds. “In Q2, we will see an acceleration of cloud revenue.”

SAP reports those second-quarter results on Wednesday. Wall Street is expecting quarterly sales of €6.68 billion, down a fraction from a year ago, with profits of about €1.20 per share.

But the cloud progress is evident in other metrics. “In the first quarter, after we announced the strategy shift toward the cloud, we saw the highest order entries in five years, and cloud backlog was up heavily,” says Klein, who notes that an aggressive new strategy intended to accelerate customer adoption of cloud versions of its software—dubbed RISE—is paying off. “We’re telling customers, don’t do only a technical move, let’s really transform your business.”

SAP still has more convincing to do, though. SAP shares have badly lagged behind Oracle, the overall software sector, and the broad market since the start of the pandemic. In the last 18 months, SAP is up 9%, while the Nasdaq Composite has rallied 58% and Oracle has surged 61%.

In a June meeting with analysts, SAP said it sees cloud growth averaging more than 22% a year through 2025, including 14% to 18% growth this year. Cloud revenue should account for more than 60% of revenue by 2025, SAP says, doubling the 2020 level.

Analysts have started to warm to SAP’s reinvention. BofA Global Research analyst Frederic Boulan recently gave the stock a rare double upgrade—to Buy from Underperform—based on the company’s progress in shifting more business to the cloud.

“The market struggles to navigate cloud migrations,” Boulan wrote in his research note. “The initial impact of not selling a $100 premise license but instead selling a $40 annual subscription dents all metrics, from revenue to margins. However, the payback is usually positive after three to four years.” Boulan cites the ability to upsell new services, higher customer satisfaction as a result of cloud-based upgrades, and more-predictable results in general.

Sure enough, SAP’s revenue could grow at a double-digit clip by 2025, when Wall Street currently expects total revenue of €37 billion.

In the meantime, investors are likely overlooking other parts of SAP’s business. Earlier this year, SAP spun off a minority stake in Qualtrics International (XM), the experience-management software company that it acquired for $8 billion in 2018. SAP held on to 82% of its Qualtrics stake, a position now worth about $14 billion, or roughly 8% of SAP’s market value.

SAP also owns Concur, the corporate travel- and expense-management company, which it bought for more than $8 billion in 2014. Concur has been a drag on results in recent quarters, with corporate travel largely shut down, but Klein sees an eventual recovery. “Concur will come back very soon to the levels we had before the pandemic,” he says.

Boulan has a sum-of-the-parts value of €150 on SAP’s German-listed shares, representing upside of nearly 20% from recent levels.

SAP is confident that it has the right cloud strategy, and, unlike Oracle, has no interest in building a public cloud business to compete with Microsoft Azure and Amazon Web Services. The good news is those public clouds are increasingly being used to run SAP’s software.

“Infrastructure was never our business,” Klein says. “We want to own the application layer. And with billions of workloads, we are getting very attractive rates [from the public clouds]. Customer satisfaction is at an all-time high. The strategy is working.”

And if the strategy works, the stock will, too.