>>> TradeGate Pre-Market Indications

DAX:
  • Continental (CON TH) -1.3%
  • Siemens Energy (ENR TH) -1.6%
  • Deutsche Bank (DBK TH) -1.8%
  • MTU Aero (MTX TH) -2.4%
  • Airbus (AIR TH) -2.5%
MDAX:
  • Lanxess (LXS TH) -1.6%
  • Commerzbank (CBK TH) -1.7%
  • Fraport (FRA TH) -1.7%
    • Watch Travel Stocks After Moderna CEO’s Comments on Omicron (1)
  • K+S (SDF TH) -1.8%
  • Cancom (COK TH) -2.2%
SDAX:
  • Adler Group (ADJ TH) +2.5%
    • Adler Defies Calls for Viceroy Response, Reports Surging Values
  • Hochtief (HOT TH) -1.1%
  • PVA TePla (TPE TH) -1.4%
  • SMA Solar (S92 TH) -1.7%
  • KWS Saat (KWS TH) -2.1%
  • 1&1 (DRI TH) -2.2%
    • Germany May Extend Mobile Frequencies Without Auctions: FAZ

>>> Europe : Brokers Upgrades & Downgrades - 30th of November 2021

>>> Up
* Aegon PT Raised to 6 euros from 5.40 euros at Berenberg
* Coca-Cola HBC Raised to Overweight at JPMorgan; PT 3,100 pence
* Cie des Alpes Raised to Hold at SocGen; PT 12.70 euros
* Hunter Group Raised to Buy at Pareto Securities; PT 3.40 kroner
* Iberdrola Raised to Outperform at RBC; PT 11.50 euros
* Kion Raised to Buy at SocGen; PT 112 euros
* PORR Raised to Buy at SRC Research; PT 17.50 euros
* TotalEnergies Raised to Add at AlphaValue/Baader
* Zoom Video Raised to Underperform at Daiwa; PT $207

>>> Down
* Allgeier Cut to Add at Baader Helvea; PT 39 euros
* BKW Cut to Reduce at Baader Helvea; PT 124 Swiss francs
* Dollar Tree Cut to Neutral at Goldman; PT $150

>>> Initiation
* Autostore Rated New Neutral at Citi; PT 44 kroner
* Autostore Rated New Buy at Jefferies; PT 50 kroner
* Autostore Rated New Equal-Weight at Morgan Stanley; PT 36 kroner
* Autostore Rated New Overweight at JPMorgan; PT 48 kroner
* Autostore Rated New Neutral at SpareBank; PT 45 kroner
* Avantium N.V. Rated New Buy at Berenberg; PT 5.20 euros
* HomeToGo Rated New Buy at Berenberg; PT 12 euros
* OCI Resumed Overweight at Morgan Stanley; PT 30 euros
* Sparebanken Vest Resumed Hold at Nordea

>>> Call
* Jefferies Turns More Selective in Business Services, Spie Cut
* Ocado a Global Leader in Online Grocery, Resumed Buy at Citi
* OCI Resumed Overweight at Morgan Stanley on Valuation, Cash Flow
* UniCredit Strategy Seen Focusing on Profitability, Capital: Citi

>>> What to look at today - 30th of November 2021

U.S and European equity futures slid along with Asian stocks Tuesday on worries about the effectiveness of current vaccines against the omicron strain, doubts that stoked demand for havens including Treasuries.
S&P 500 contracts fell more than 1% at one point and the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield sank below the levels hit Friday, when omicron-induced fears for global economic reopening first roiled markets. Crude oiltumbled, commodity-linked currencies were in the red, the yenadvanced and gold climbed.
Moderna Inc.’s Chief Executive Officer Stephane Bancel told the Financial Times that existing vaccines will be less effective at tackling omicron and it may take months before variant-specific jabs are available at scale.
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said omicron poses risks to both sides of the central bank’s mandate for stable prices and maximum employment. That stoked speculation the strain could delay interest-rate hikes.
The aversion to riskier assets buffeted cryptocurrencies, with Bitcoin dropping toward $56,000.
The vaccine doubts overshadowed positive data from China, which showed factory sentiment improved in November as the impact of a power crunch subsided and inflation pressures eased.
US After Hours GBDC +2% rises on earnings while ARRY -6% declines on convertible senior notes offering

Nikkei -1,63% Hang Seng -2,24% CSI -0,51% Shanghai -0,11% Shenzen -0,08%

Eur$ 1,1325 CNH 6,3767 CNY 6,3721 JPY 113,09 GBP 1,3325 CHF 0,9209 RUB 74,99 TRY 12,8562 WTI$ 67,50 GOLD 1,794 BTC 56,560 -1770 ETH 4415 -35

S&P -0,82% Nasdaq -0,34% EuroStoxx -1,63% FTSE -1,32% Dax -1,43% SMI -1,14%

Macro :
- *CHINA NOV. MANUFACTURING PMI AT 50.1; EST. 49.7
- Biden Says No New Travel Bans, Shutdowns Expected Due to Omicron

Keep an eye on :
- ADE NO : Adevinta Targets Doubling Motors Revenue by 2026
- ADJ GY : Adler Group 9M FFO I EU101.9M Vs. EU74.7M Y/y
- ALV GY : Allianz to Pay Commerzbank as Much as EU200M to Extend Deal: SZ
- ALLFG NA : Allfunds CFO Amaury Dauge to Resign (Nov. 29)
- BEFB BB : Befimmo to Pay Interim Dividend EU1.26/Share
- CLNX SM : Cellnex Considers Tower Deals in Austria, Sweden and Denmark
- DOKA SW : Jim-Heng Lee Named Dormakaba CEO Effective Jan. 1 at Latest
- EZJ LN : EasyJet FY Revenue Matches Estimates
- ENEL IM : Enel: Nicola Lanzetta to Become Director of Italy From Dec. 1
- GSK LN : Glaxo Aims for HIV Cure by 2030 as It Looks to Post-Split Future
- GLEN LN : Activist Bluebell Asks Glencore to Separate Its Coal Business
- IIA AV : Immofinanz Sees 2022 FFO I Above EU135M
- ITX SM : Inditex Says Marta Ortega to Become Chairwoman as Isla Resigns
- LUNE SS : Lundin Says No Conclusive Decisions Made After Talks
- NTGY SM : Naturgy Considering Sale of Chile Unit: Confidencial
- NB2 GY : Northern Data Says German Prosecutor Opted Against Opening Probe
- PSTH US : Ackman SPAC Will Need New Law to Beat Lawsuit, Investor Says
- PREC SS : Precise Biometrics Offers SEK20m Shares via Vator Securities
- PUB LN : Sky News: Punch Pubs shareholders prepare to toast sale as Fortress eyes £1bn bid https://t.co/l20Voisb3j
- REC BB : Bois Sauvage to Vote Against Recticel Sale of Foam Unit at EGM
- SEBA SS : SEB Remains Overweight Stocks, HY Bonds in Investment Outlook
- GLE FP : SocGen Sanction-Violation Charges Set to Be Dropped by U.S.
- SYNSAM SS : Synsam 3Q Net Sales Rose 21% to SEK1,176m
- TIT IM : JPMorgan May Work on KKR Telecom Italia Bid Finance: Messaggero
- TOBII SS : Tobii’s Remainco Target to Reach SEK1.5b in Revenue in 2025
- UCB BB : UCB and Chiesi in Global License Agreement for Zampilimab
- VK FP : Apollo Increases Vallourec Stake to 26.9%: Regulator AMF
- VIFN SW : Vifor Pharma CFO Colin Bond to Retire by End of December
- VOLVB SS : Volvo Cars Confident on Sales Growth as Chip Crunch Hits Output

>>> After Hours Summary: GBDC +2% rises on earnings while ARRY -6% declines on c

After Hours Summary: GBDC +2% rises on earnings while ARRY -6% declines on convertible senior notes offering

After Hours Gainers:

Companies trading higher in after hours in reaction to earnings/guidance: GBDC +2.1%

Companies trading higher in after hours in reaction to news: MEIP +8.2% (to host webcast reporting data from Phase 2 TIDAL study), MYPS +8% (secured exclusive rights to develop the Tetris franchise for mobile devices), OM +5.1% (received FDA 510(k) clearance for a new sterilization method of the cartridge utilized in its Tablo Hemodialysis System), KRYS +4.8% (announced public offering; extends volatility after closing higher by approx. +122%), HELE +2.6% (agreed acquire Osprey Packs for $414 mln in cash), RRD +2.3% (received increased proposal from Chatham offering to acquire co's common stock for $10.25/share in cash)

After Hours Losers:

Companies trading lower in after hours in reaction to earnings/guidance: LIZI -4.8%, UNH -0.2%, ARCE -0.2%

Companies trading lower in after hours in reaction to news: ARRY -6.4% (announced private offering of convertible notes), INTU -2.7% (announced secondary common stock offering)

>>> US Close Dow +0,68% S&P +1,32% Nasdaq +1,88% Russell -0,18% VIX 22,96 -19,8%

Closing Market Summary

The stock market began the week on a strong note with the Nasdaq (+1.9%) recovering the bulk of its loss from Friday. The S&P 500 (+1.3%) and Dow (+0.7%) recorded slimmer gains, finishing near their opening levels from Friday.

Stocks rallied out of the gate as fears about the omicron coronavirus variant receded since there are no indications that this variant is more dangerous or more transmissible. In addition, the return of participants who were away on Friday contributed to the rebound.

All eleven sectors finished the day with gains. Five sectors added more than 1.0% with technology (+2.6%), consumer discretionary (+1.6%), and utilities (+1.6%) finishing in the lead.

The technology sector built on its gain as the day went on with chipmakers leading the way. The PHLX Semiconductor Index climbed 4.1% with all components rising at least 1.0%. Lam Research (LRCX 680.54, +38.56, +6.0%) was the best performer, rallying to a fresh record high.

Elsewhere in the tech sector, Microsoft (MSFT 336.63, +6.95, +2.1%) recovered its loss from Friday while Twitter (TWTR 45.78, -1.29, -2.7%) rallied out of the gate, but slid back to last week's low as the day went on. The volatility took place after Twitter CEO Dorsey announced his resignation. He will be replaced by the company's current CTO.

The consumer discretionary sector benefited from a strong showing in Tesla (TSLA 1136.99, +55.07, +5.1%) and a rebound in travel-related names like Expedia (EXPE 166.50, +6.70, +4.2%), Marriott (MAR 150.77, +3.33, +2.3%), and Royal Caribbean (RCL 69.89, +1.91, +2.8%). Retail stocks did well, though the SPDR S&P Retail ETF (XRT 96.62, -0.56, -0.6%) ended in the red due to a weak showing from a few of its top components. CNBC reported that retail store traffic on Friday was up nearly 50.0% from last year's levels but down 28.3% from 2019.

Today's rebound rally also boosted the energy sector (+0.6%) and oil, but crude spent the day in a pullback from its morning high while the energy sector followed. Crude oil ended the pit session higher by $1.67, or 2.5%, at $69.84/bbl, sliding back below its 200-day moving average (69.76) after overtaking that mark in the early morning.

The health care sector (+0.4%) finished near the bottom of the leaderboard with Pfizer (PFE 52.40, -1.60, -3.0%) reversing from a record high. The company, alongside Moderna (MRNA 368.51, +38.88, +11.8%), indicated that it can modify its vaccine formulation in a short timeframe, if necessary.

Treasuries ended in the red, but above their opening levels with the 10-yr yield rising five basis points to 1.53%.

Today's economic data was limited to the Pending Home Sales report for October, which showed a 7.5% increase (Briefing.com consensus 0.7%) while the September decrease was revised down to 2.4% from -2.3%.

The September FHFA Housing Price Index (prior 1.0%) and September S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Index (consensus 19.3%; prior 19.7%) will be released tomorrow at 9:00 ET, followed by November Chicago PMI ( consensus 67.0; prior 68.4) at 9:45 ET and November Consumer Confidence (consensus 111.0; prior 113.8) at 10:00 ET.

  • S&P 500 +23.9% YTD
  • Nasdaq Composite +22.5% YTD
  • Dow Jones Industrial Average +14.8% YTD
  • Russell 2000 +13.5% YTD

(ZH) Here Are Goldman's Four Market-Moving Omicron Scenarios

Here Are Goldman's Four Market-Moving Omicron Scenarios

Goldman Sachs is out with a comprehensive look at four scenarios for the new Covid-19 'Omicron' strain, which at present appears to be less severe, yet possibly more virulent than previous strains.
On Friday, the World Health Organization declared Omicron as a 'variant of concern' after several confirmed cases in South Africa and elsewhere, causing markets to panic into the weekend. The new variant has approximately 30 mutations to the spike protein over the Alpha strain, making its effects, and spread, difficult to predict at this point.
As Goldman notes, "The transmissibility, degree of protection from vaccines and prior infections, and disease severity of Omicron will shape its potential economic impact..."
To that end, analyst Daan Syruyven and team have come up with four scenarios for OMicron and the global economy.
1. Downside scenario: Omicron transmits more quickly than Delta, and evades immunity from vaccines and prior infections. In this case, Omicron unseats Delta as the dominant strain, as well as "evades immunity against hospitalizations only slightly more than Delta, and causes similarly severe disease." As far as economic impact, it would result in another large Q1 infection wave across various economies, resulting in a global growth slowdown to a 2% q/q annual rate - 2.5pp below Goldman's current forecast.
2. 'Severe downside' scenario: This less likely scenario would see both disease severity and immunity against hospitalizations substantially worse than with Delta, and would have a worse economic impact than the 1st scenario. The economic impact would of course be worse, while "The net overall inflation impact is again ambiguous although the moves in energy and services inflation(down) and in goods inflation (up) are larger."
3. False alarm scenario: Omicron is a nothingburger - and spreads more slowly than Delta. It has no significant effects on global growth and inflation.
In this scenario, the sharp rise in reported Omicron cases in Gauteng may reflect skewed sequencing, other data issues, or superspreading events. Finally, any ability of Omicron to outcompete Delta in South Africa does not necessarily carry over to other geographies with higher vaccination/lower prior infection rates
4. Upside scenario: Here, Omicron is slightly more transmissible than Delta but causes much less severe disease. This speculative 'normalization' scenario would result in a net reduction in disease burden on various systems, leaving growth higher than in Goldman's baseline. In this scenario, inflation is likely to decline more quickly than the baseline scenario because of a rebalancing of demand from goods to services, along with an accelerated recovery in goods and labor supply.
In Conclusion, Goldman notes that Omicron 'could have sizeable growth effects,' however the range of medical and economic outcomes remains unusually wide. Because of this, "we are not making Omicron-related changes to our growth,inflation, and monetary policy forecasts until the likelihood of these scenarios has become somewhat clearer."