>>> Europe : Brokers Upgrades & Downgrades - 7th of January 2022 V2(+)

>>> Up
* BP Raised to Outperform at Exane; PT 410 pence
* Centamin Raised to Buy at Berenberg; PT 112 pence
* Centamin Raised to Buy at Liberum; PT 106 pence
* Cryptology Asset Group Raised to Outperform at Oddo BHF
* Lanxess Raised to Overweight at Barclays; PT 70 euros
* Next Raised to Add at AlphaValue/Baader
* Repsol Raised to Neutral at Exane; PT 12 euros
* Rio Tinto Raised to Buy at Berenberg; PT 5,500 pence
* Sitowise Group Raised to Buy at Carnegie; PT 9.50 euros
* UBS Group Raised to Outperform at Exane; PT 21 Swiss francs
* Zalando Raised to Buy at Hauck & Aufhaeuser; PT 92 euros (+)

>>> Down
* Credit Suisse Cut to Underperform at Exane; PT 9 Swiss francs
* Endeavour Mining Cut to Sell at Liberum
* Equinor Cut to Underperform at Exane; PT 235 kroner
* Evli Bank Cut to Reduce at Inderes; PT 24.50 euros
* Ferrovial Cut to Neutral at JPMorgan; PT 30 euros
* Fix Price GDRs Cut to Neutral at JPMorgan; PT $8.80
* House of Control Group Cut to Hold at Pareto Securities (+)
* ITV Cut to Equal-Weight at Morgan Stanley; PT 110 pence
* MercadoLibre Cut to Hold at Jefferies; PT $1,250
* Equinor Cut to Underperform at Exane; PT 235 kroner
* Shell Cut to Neutral at Exane; PT 1,885 pence
* SThree Cut to Hold at Jefferies; PT 500 pence


>>> Initiation
* Betsson Rated New Hold at Berenberg; PT 53 kronor
* Evolution Rated New Hold at Berenberg; PT 1,130 kronor
* Kambi Rated New Buy at Berenberg; PT 310 kronor
* Kindred GDRs Rated New Buy at Berenberg; PT 154 kronor
* Sitowise Group Still Rated Buy at Carnegie
* Thyssenkrupp Reinstated Neutral at Oddo BHF; PT 12 euros

>>> Call
* Citigroup’s Buckland Sees Fading EPS and Rates Support to Stocks (+)
* Evotec Resumed Neutral, Investments to Weigh in 2022: Citi
* Hays, Page Set For Upbeat Updates, SThree Cut to Hold: Jefferies
* Lanxess Raised to Overweight, Barclays Sees ‘Superior’ 2022 (+)
* Secular Growth Names Favored in Media by Morgan Stanley; ITV Cut

>>> Stoxx 600 Pre-Market Indications

  • STMicroelectronics (SGM TH) +3%
    • STMicroelectronics Prelim 4Q Net Revenue $3.56B
    • Samsung Profit Misses on Memory Prices, Special Bonuses (Video)
  • ASML (ASME TH) +2.7%
  • Imperial Brands (ITB TH) +2.4%
  • Rio Tinto (RIO1 TH) +2.1%
  • Infineon (IFX TH) +1.8%
  • Deutsche Bank (DBK TH) +1.6%
    • Deutsche Bank CFO ‘Very Confident’ About 2022 Rote Goal: Hb
  • Novo Nordisk (NOVC TH) +1.6%
  • ASMI (AVS TH) +1.3%
  • BE Semiconductor (BSI TH) +1.1%
  • Lanxess (LXS TH) +1%
    • Lanxess Raised to Overweight at Barclays; PT 70 euros
  • Fuchs Petrolub (FPE3 TH) -0.6%
    • ETF Daily News: Fuchs Petrolub (OTCMKTS:FUPBY) Downgraded to “Hold” at Zacks Investment Research
  • HeidelbergCement (HEI TH) -0.7%
  • Evotec SE (EVT TH) -1%
    • Evotec Resumed Neutral, Investments to Weigh in 2022: Citi
  • Telefonica (TNE5 TH) -1.1%
  • CD Projekt (7CD TH) -5.7%
    • Secular Growth Names Favored in Media by Morgan Stanley; ITV Cut
    • CD Projekt Cut to Underweight at Morgan Stanley; PT 120 zloty

>>> TradeGate Pre-Market Indications

DAX:
  • Infineon (IFX TH) +1.8%
    • Samsung’s Profit Climbs as Hopes Grow for 2022 Memory Recovery
  • Deutsche Bank (DBK TH) +1.8%
    • Deutsche Bank CFO ‘Very Confident’ About 2022 Rote Goal: Hb
MDAX:
  • Aixtron (AIXA TH) +1.8%
  • Lanxess (LXS TH) +1.5%
    • Lanxess Raised to Overweight at Barclays; PT 70 euros
  • Thyssenkrupp (TKA TH) +0.8%
    • Thyssenkrupp Reinstated Neutral at Oddo BHF; PT 12 euros
SDAX:
  • Encavis (ECV TH) +1.8%
  • flatexDEGIRO (FTK TH) +1.5%
  • Vitesco (VTSC TH) +1.3%
  • Heidelberger Druck (HDD TH) +1.2%
  • SGL (SGL TH) +0.8%
  • MorphoSys (MOR TH) +0.5%
    • MorphoSys Sees 2022 Monjuvi U.S. Net Product Sales $110M-$135M
  • DWS (DWS TH) -0.8%

>>> Europe : Brokers Upgrades & Downgrades - 7th of January 2022

>>> Up
* BP Raised to Outperform at Exane; PT 410 pence
* Centamin Raised to Buy at Berenberg; PT 112 pence
* Centamin Raised to Buy at Liberum; PT 106 pence
* Cryptology Asset Group Raised to Outperform at Oddo BHF
* Lanxess Raised to Overweight at Barclays; PT 70 euros
* Next Raised to Add at AlphaValue/Baader
* Repsol Raised to Neutral at Exane; PT 12 euros
* Rio Tinto Raised to Buy at Berenberg; PT 5,500 pence
* Sitowise Group Raised to Buy at Carnegie; PT 9.50 euros
* UBS Group Raised to Outperform at Exane; PT 21 Swiss francs

>>> Down
* Credit Suisse Cut to Underperform at Exane; PT 9 Swiss francs
* Endeavour Mining Cut to Sell at Liberum
* Equinor Cut to Underperform at Exane; PT 235 kroner
* Evli Bank Cut to Reduce at Inderes; PT 24.50 euros
* Ferrovial Cut to Neutral at JPMorgan; PT 30 euros
* Fix Price GDRs Cut to Neutral at JPMorgan; PT $8.80
* ITV Cut to Equal-Weight at Morgan Stanley; PT 110 pence
* MercadoLibre Cut to Hold at Jefferies; PT $1,250
* Equinor Cut to Underperform at Exane; PT 235 kroner
* Shell Cut to Neutral at Exane; PT 1,885 pence
* SThree Cut to Hold at Jefferies; PT 500 pence


>>> Initiation
* Betsson Rated New Hold at Berenberg; PT 53 kronor
* Evolution Rated New Hold at Berenberg; PT 1,130 kronor
* Kambi Rated New Buy at Berenberg; PT 310 kronor
* Kindred GDRs Rated New Buy at Berenberg; PT 154 kronor
* Sitowise Group Still Rated Buy at Carnegie
* Thyssenkrupp Reinstated Neutral at Oddo BHF; PT 12 euros

>>> Call
* Evotec Resumed Neutral, Investments to Weigh in 2022: Citi
* Hays, Page Set For Upbeat Updates, SThree Cut to Hold: Jefferies
* Secular Growth Names Favored in Media by Morgan Stanley; ITV Cut

>>> What to look at today - 7th of January 2022

U.S. futures rose and Asian stocks were mixed Friday as investor focus turned to upcoming data from the American labor market. Treasuries steadied after declining all week. Shares climbed in Hong Kong and South Korea but slipped in Japan. S&P 500 futures saw modest gains. The U.S. benchmark closed little changed after attempting to rebound from a near 2% drop Wednesday sparked by Federal Reserve meeting minutes that suggested the central bank is ready to raise rates sooner and higher than previously expected. Ten-year Treasury yields were steady around 1.72%, set for their biggest weekly jump since 2020.  The dollar edged lower, while oil climbed to a seven-week high on supply constraints. The yen pared some of its overnight gains. Gold was little changed. Bitcoin fell to its lowest level since September, dropping below $42,000. The removal of crisis-era accommodation marks a shift not seen in at least three years, a time that also saw a spike in volatility. Comments by regional Fed presidents provided some additional insight Thursday as traders attempted to predict a possible schedule for tightening. St. Louis Fed President James Bullard, a more hawkish policy maker, said in a speech the central bank could raise its target interest rate as soon as March. Meanwhile, San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly said at a virtual event that trimming the Fed balance sheet would come after normalizing the Fed funds rate. Friday’s monthly jobs report from the Labor Department is currently forecast to show that the U.S. added 405,000private payrolls in December. 
US After Hours GME +30% higher on WSJ report to enter NFT, crypto; DCT +8%, QDEL +2.3% higher on eaarnings/guidance; SONO +3.9% up on NYT report that GOOG infringed

Nikkei -0.03% Hang Seng +1.65% CSI +0.31% Shanghai +0.08% Shenzen -0.73%

Eur$1.1302 CNH 6.3842 CNY 6.3760 JPY 115.88 GBP 1.3546 CHF 0.9213 RUB 76.1657 TRY 13.8020 WTI$80.07 +0.77% Gold 1,792.66 +0.08% BTC 41,450 -3.75% ETH 3,190 -6.9%

S&P +0.18% Nasdaq +0.06% EuroStoxx +0.18% FTSE +0.14% Dax +0.04% SMI +0.06%

Macro :
- Goldman Strategists See China Stocks in ‘Hope’ Phase After Rout
- Bitcoin Drops Below $42,000 to Lowest Level Since September
- China Urges Banks to Boost Property Loans as Default Fears Grow

Keep an eye on :
- MT NA : ArcelorMittal bank accounts in Ukraine frozen over tax evasion claims - FT
- ARGX BB : Argenx Expects to Utilize About Half of Available Cash in 2022
- BSLN SW : Basilea Cresemba Sales in U.S. Trigger CHF15M Milestone Payment
- BVI FP : Bureau Veritas Buys Prescience; No Terms Disclosed
- CRG IM : Cerberus Made Non Binding Offer for Italy’s Carige: Messaggero
- RE FP : Colas Wins U.K. Highway Maintenance Contract Worth ~EU400M
- CSGN SW : Credit Suisse to Reduce Hong Kong Office Occupancy to 50%
- CSGN SW : Credit Suisse Wins Court Order to Get Information from SoftBank
- ALDEI FP : Deinove Gets DSMB Go-Ahead to Continue Phase 2 Trial of DNV3837
- DBK GY : Deutsche Bank CFO ‘Very Confident’ About 2022 Rote Goal: Hb
- DTE GY : T-Mobile US Tops Estimates and AT&T in Wireless-Customer Gains
- ENG SM : *ENAGAS PROPOSES TO SELL CASTOR GAS-STORAGE PLATFORM: CINCO DIAS
- EKTAB SS : Elekta Names Tobias Hagglov as CFO
- HMB SS : H&M Keeps 120 Stores Temporarily Closed Amid Virus Restrictions
- INPST NA : InPost 4Q Parcel Volumes 180.3M vs. 105.5M Y/y
- KEYW BB : Keyware to Buy Payment Solutions With 2022 Sales of EU2.3m
- KKR US : John Legend Sells Music Catalog, Joining Dylan and Springsteen
- ORA FP : Orange CEO Race Has Narrowed to a Shortlist of Three Candidates
- SAN FP : Sanofi Allies With Exscientia in Deal Worth Up to $5.2 Billion
- SBBB SS : SBB Sees FY EPS SEK13.70 to SEK14.20, Saw SEK9.80
- SNBN SW : SNB Posts $28 Billion Profit Thanks to Foreign Currencies
- STM FP : STMicroelectronics Prelim 4Q Net Revenue $3.56B
- TW/ LN : Elliott Would Back Jenkinson as Taylor Wimpey CEO:Times
- TSLA US : CNBC: SpaceX says Starlink internet service has more than 145,000 users so far https://t.co/QT1QaXNzDR
- TRI FP : Trigano 1Q Like-for-like Sales +8.5%
- VIGL US : Vigil Neuroscience IPO of 7 Million Shares Prices at $14 Each

FT : China’s slow motion financial crisis

China’s slow-motion financial crisis
For much of last year the biggest story in finance was the real estate debt crisis in China — until Evergrande’s collapse was shoved off front pages by the global inflation panic. Yet Evergrande remains a huge, moving story.

The latest sub-chapter unfolded this week, when a unit of another major Chinese developer, Shimao Group Holdings, defaulted on a loan from a China Credit Trust Co. Shimao’s dollar bonds due this year went from $71 to $48:
Another developer, Guangzhou R&F Properties, said it might miss a repayment next week. Its bonds, already trading at a fraction of par, got hit hard again, too. If you thought all the bad news about China real estate was priced in, you were wrong. We’re still looking for the bottom.

  • Over a period of years, the growth of China’s real estate sector became dependent on ever-larger amounts of debt

  • The authorities decided to put limits on property developers’ indebtedness (most famously by setting the “three red lines” in August 2020)

  • The debt limits not only pushed Evergrande towards default, but it left all developers very dependent on property sales for cash

  • But property sales are slowing — in part, presumably, because of loss of confidence caused by Evergrande’s fall — so other developers are nearing default too

  • Infrastructure spending is falling as well, because it is funded in significant part by local governments’ land sales to (now broke) developers

Here is what Caixin reported about the fall in property sales yesterday:

Sales of new homes by China’s top 100 property developers dropped 3.5 per cent to Rmb11.1tn ($1.8tn) in 2021, the first annual decline in more than a decade, data compiled by China Real Estate Information Corp show ...

The real estate market has yet to bottom out and will enter a phase of zero growth, CRIC said. Policies restricting financing will be marginally eased in 2022, but the short-term outlook is not promising, it said.

A 3.5 per cent decline in sales may not sound bad, but debt amplifies the impact of lost revenue. And — as we have all learned over the past year — real estate is a very large piece of China’s economy. The consensus (as explained, for example, here) is that fixed investment accounts for more than 40 per cent of the country’s GDP, and that public and private construction projects account for about two-thirds of that. Furthermore, some 70 per cent of household wealth is tied up in real estate, so real estate value declines seem likely to create negative wealth effects.

What this means for economic growth cannot be precisely estimated, but it ain’t good. Craig Botham, chief China economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics, says China’s days of 6 or 7 per cent growth are “gone forever”. The new goal is 5 per cent, which is what will be required to meet Xi Jinping’s target of doubling the economy between 2020 and 2035. “Even that is probably above-trend growth, so they will need to add debt to get there,” he says.

Judging by the official and semi-official response to the Evergrande crisis, more debt is a good prediction. That response has consisted, as far as I can tell, of finding ways to smuggle new debt into the system.

The small loosening of bank reserve ratios is the least of it. Restrictions on developer bond issuance have been eased. State-owned local government financing vehicles are taking the place of developers in property auctions. Developers are issuing commercial paper to evade the “red lines” debt restrictions. Most striking of all, as detailed in the Yu/Mitchell Big Read, local governments seem to have been handed the job of supporting the creditors of broke developers, and seeing that building projects are completed:

Local party and government officials also complain that they, not their bosses in Beijing, have to foot the increasingly expensive bill for Evergrande’s collapse. Wei He, an analyst at Gavekal Dragonomics in Beijing, notes that when central government officials say that all pre-paid homes must be delivered to their nervous buyers, “this responsibility ultimately falls on local governments who may have to pay for construction themselves if developers cannot”. In Huaihua, a small city in Hunan province, the municipal finance bureau recently loaned Evergrande’s local subsidiary Rmb50m to help it complete projects, according to one person familiar with the developer’s operations there . ..

In Shaoyang, another city in Hunan, local officials are trying to auction their Evergrande problems away. On December 24 they announced that they would sell off the developer’s four projects in their jurisdiction. “Neither the government nor Evergrande has money,” one local official told the FT. “Someone else needs to fill the vacuum.”

This is a long way from an orderly and transparent liquidation process in which an order of creditors is established and losses are assigned. Instead, it looks like an improvisational effort to kick the can, creating the appearance that no one — with the exception of offshore bondholders — is taking a hard loss.

How much does all this matter to global investors? Because the Chinese authorities have chosen ambiguity and pain later over transparency and pain now, it is hard to know who will bear the inevitable losses.

But one point, from Pantheon’s Botham, is worth bearing in mind. The cyclical supply of credit in China — the so-called “credit impulse”, or contribution of debt to GDP — has been tightening for more than a year now. Many observers are expecting the loosening of credit to lead to a rebound in China’s economy. But unconventional forms of credit are already flowing, and all they are doing is filling balance-sheet holes left by Evergrande’s collapse, not creating new capacity or output.

More debt may buy China more time, but it won’t buy it much growth.

FT : Growth equity booms as investors embrace private markets

Growth equity booms as investors embrace private markets
Private equity and venture capital are colliding in one of the hottest alternative investment trends

Growth equity has become one of the hottest corners of the private capital industry, as ever-larger companies eschew public markets and find strong demand among investors desperate for higher-returning bets.

The investment strategy has long existed as a vibrant yet ill-defined halfway house between traditional venture capital firms that acquire small stakes in nascent companies, and private equity funds that usually buy more mature ones outright.

But torrential inflows into private markets from investors seeking alternatives to mainstream stocks and bonds have helped buoy dedicated growth equity funds — which typically finance well-established but still younger, fast-growing private companies in return for minority stakes — and transform them into a larger and more distinct asset class.

“The category has existed for a very long time, but it’s being separated out in investor minds, and has definitely seen a lot more capital coming in,” said Jeff Diehl, head of investments at Adams Street, a private capital firm. “It’s an area that’s generated very interesting returns.”

TPG, one of the biggest private equity groups, highlighted growth equity as one of its leading areas of focus in its pre-Christmas filing to go public in 2022, while Permira, a large UK-based buyout firm, recently raised $4bn for its second growth equity fund, more than twice the size of its predecessor fund and almost twice the initial target of $2.5bn.


Specialist information provider Preqin estimates that growth equity has more than doubled in size since the end of 2016, to almost $920bn at the end of March 2021. Morgan Stanley has estimated that growth equity is the fastest-expanding slice of the private capital world, with a compound annual growth rate of about 21 per cent in the past decade, compared with 10 per cent for private equity and 16 per cent for venture capital.

More money is likely to enter the booming industry. A survey of 200 institutional investors by Numis Securities found that 73 per cent planned to increase their asset allocation to growth equity — and 20 per cent expect a “dramatic increase”.

The boom is being driven by the fact that many blue-chip private equity and venture capital firms have limited capacity and have amassed big war chests of committed but still-undeployed money from earlier fundraising drives. Money is, therefore, spilling over into growth equity, where it is easier to write bigger cheques than in venture capital, as the companies invested in are generally larger and more well-established.

“By its nature, [growth equity] does not have the same return profile as early stage venture capital investing, as you’re investing at a much later stage, but an upside return scenario remains and the risks are lower as the companies have already proven that their business model works,” said Marc Brown, a partner and head of growth investing at EQT, the Swedish buyout firm.

But there are still signs that some are being stirred by hype to buy into the growth equity space, without extensive knowledge of what they are adding to their portfolios.

“The game has changed phenomenally,” said Michael Turner, a partner at Latham & Watkins, the law firm. “There’s quite a lot of FOMO (fear of missing out) investing going on, a lot of investors coming into the market who don’t fully understand the companies and the opportunities they are investing in.” 


Growth equity is also increasingly becoming a battleground between private equity groups, venture capital, hedge funds and even some mutual funds.

Private equity groups are launching more growth funds that accept minority stakes to get in earlier in a company’s life, while some venture capital firms have established growth funds that can hold on to investments longer and inject bigger slugs of money than they normally would.

At the same time, hedge funds such as Tiger Global have jumped into growth equity — attracted by the returns offered by technology in particular — while some traditional asset managers are also making more early investments in private companies that might end up going public anyway, so that they are not stuck with more mature, slower-growing businesses.

“It’s a sign of froth, but we just have to accept that the market is attracting new sources of capital, and you can’t complain too much about that, whether it’s hedge funds or mutual funds,” said Michael Wand, a managing director at Carlyle. “It’s not going to go away unless we have a massive fallout from a bursting bubble.”

Hedge funds and mutual funds are partly jumping into growth equity to address the fact that many companies are staying private for far longer than they have historically. But the scale of the money gushing into growth equity is exacerbating the phenomenon, by allowing even more and bigger companies to shun stock markets for longer, some industry insiders say.

Brown at EQT stressed that this was not purely a result of the explosion of growth equity funds. “More capital at every stage of investing is allowing companies to stay private longer,” he said. “The venture capital community is also doing larger and later rounds, and investors like BlackRock are also doing more late stage investments on the private side.”

He argued that listing on a major bourse remained a long-term target for many entrepreneurs. “I think going public is still a big goal for a lot of founders. If someone offers to take you off that path then you’ll listen to them, but going public is still seen as a prize.”

FT : Big Oil splits seem just a question of time

Big Oil splits seem just a question of time
BP’s former chief joins the call for energy majors to separate fossil fuel and low carbon businesses

There is virtue, as every journalist knows, in making predictions or proclamations that have a good chance of coming true at some point, even if they won’t right now. See the calls, at least in Europe, for big oil and gas companies to break themselves up.

The latest to add his voice to the cacophony for division is Lord Browne of Madingley, aka John Browne, the former chief executive of BP. The industry, he wrote in Time magazine, needs to be “bolder in separating low-and zero-carbon activity from their fossil fuels business”.

He joins activist Third Point that last year took aim at Royal Dutch Shell in arguing that big oil and gas companies are trying to achieve the impossible, by investing in high growth renewables businesses that should be well valued in the market while keeping the unloved hydrocarbons ticking over, declining but churning out cash.

Browne’s intervention is notable: he was the “architect of consolidation in the 1990s”, says Alastair Syme at Citi, an era when big names and big balance sheets were needed to secure the world’s most promising resources. The sector isn’t elephant hunting any more, notes Syme: renewables projects, even the biggest ones, are tiny in comparison. Focus may be becoming more important than scale.

Both Shell and BP try to make the case, with debatable success, that integration is intrinsically valuable in the energy transition: the ability to work with customers and to connect generation, with carbon capture or hydrogen infrastructure, and supply and charging. But it is fossil fuels’ role as a “cash machine”, as BP’s Bernand Looney put it, that seems to get greater traction as an argument.

One source of pressure on oil and gas majors has lifted: the cash balancing act between maintenance spending on legacy assets, green investment and returns to shareholders now looks feasible thanks to lower post-pandemic dividends and higher oil prices, notes Martijn Rats at Morgan Stanley.

But companies are using the cash thrown off by legacy assets to try to build out a “green” portfolio, one that is likely to be absorbing rather than producing cash for many years to come.

This is a “not now” answer to calls to split — one given extra credibility by uncertainty over what a standalone GreenCo at Shell or BP might actually look like. European peers such as Total or Equinor have more that could be carved out at present.

To be fair, it also isn’t obvious that the immediate valuation uplift supposedly on offer from a split will make it from the bankers’ anti-conglomerate pitchbook to the market. Syme reckons big oil and gas companies are valued in line with the returns they are offering.

Italy’s Eni, which is listing a stake in renewables business Plenitude, looks like a test case. But the spin-off has some retail assets included to bolster cash flows, so it isn’t for the purists. It also isn’t obviously planning markedly higher investment into renewables than had been promised in its old conglomerated home, so it’s not clear to what extent this accelerates the energy transition.

The more convincing case made by the splitters is that big oil and gas companies are fundamentally trying to bind together two competing constituencies in a way that is inefficient, won’t survive the duration of transition and won’t produce good performance in the meantime.

Companies could and should put more money into renewables and green infrastructure, especially as older fossil fuel assets are sold: a slow swivel from the old world to the new. But that’s something that yield-hungry oil investors, wary of the returns on offer from renewables and burnt by over-investment and poor returns in the past, won’t currently tolerate.

And it’s a strategy where the tipping point into official greenery looks far removed: BP’s ambitious plans to have 50 gigawatts of developed renewables capacity by 2030 caused investors to gulp but still leaves it as a majority oil and gas company in cash flow terms at that point.

No one wins the argument this year. But the oil and gas companies face a challenge. Make a far more robust case for integration. Or see another force join the allied ranks of investor activists, executive alumni and climate agitators who dislike the combination of fossil fuels and new energy assets: an absence of better ideas.