TerchCrunch : Apple’s biggest scandal of 2022 is already happening

the big thing
AirTags are a very useful product from Apple that pretty much function exactly as advertised.

Unfortunately, that’s the problem.

There’s been a fair bit of controversy lately around how Apple rolled these out and how even though these are great devices to keep track of your keys, they can also easily be abused to stalk someone. This isn’t a purely theoretical issue either, it’s already happening.


It’s not a particularly unique scenario where technology can be used for good and bad purposes — just think about the decades-long conversation around encryption — that said I have a feeling that this is a scenario where Apple is going to lose and it’s going to be more embarrassing than any misstep in recent memory.

Apple has arranged so much of their wearable product marketing over the last few years on how their devices function in edge use cases. The Apple Watch’s last several generations have focused on health tracking features that could help identify rare conditions or help users in a life-threatening situation. TV commercials have documented the individual stories of users who have found the Apple Watch to be a life-saving tool. With AirTags, there’s potential for some of that same good, but there’s also much more downside. In the next year, we’re undoubtedly going to see examples of AirTags being used in nefarious ways that bundled together serve as the antithesis of one of these Apple Watch commercials. It may end up being a product defined by its gross shortcomings.


Apple has made its own post-launch efforts to tighten up how AirTags that don’t belong to a certain user can be detected, but these notifications have proven buggy and have often waited far too long to alert users. Add in the fact that Apple has seemed to treat Android integration as an afterthought, not a necessary partnership in order to ship a device like this, and Apple’s incompetence looks a bit more severe.

I highly doubt that Apple is going to be able to design their way out of this problem. Regardless of what they ship on iOS to backtrack issues, Android’s fractured ecosystem means that safeguards won’t reach an awful lot of people who could be targeted.

For a nascent product category with such PR liability potential, it’s hard to see how Apple justifies continuing to sell AirTags. It’s a unique error from Apple in that the company delivered exactly what they initially promised but failed to consider the full scope of that initial promise’s direct consequences.

WSJ : Earnings Reports This Week Will Help Investors Prep Their 2022 Playbooks

Earnings Reports This Week Will Help Investors Prep Their 2022 Playbooks
Higher interest rates could make investors less willing to pay rich valuations for stocks. That means corporate profits will be critical to keeping the market climbing.

Earnings season kicks off this week, the next test for a stock market rattled by the prospect of quicker interest-rate increases by the Federal Reserve.

The market fell Wednesday on news that the Fed might lift short-term interest rates as soon as March, and it extended its decline throughout the week. The S&P 500, which soared 27% in 2021, fell 1.9% in the first week of the new year. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite recorded its worst week since February. The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note rose to 1.769%, its highest since January 2020.

Low interest rates make investors more willing to pay rich valuations for stocks, and equity valuations shot higher in 2020 after the Fed slashed its benchmark rate to near zero. In 2021, price-to-earnings multiples remained higher than the long-term norm but started to edge lower. Now that rising rates are in play, potentially causing multiples to contract further, investors are rethinking their game plans. That means earnings growth will be critical for the market to continue its upward climb.

“Given where multiples are today, that’s what you need is consistent growth to keep the rally going,” said Mike Stritch, chief investment officer at BMO Wealth Management. “Even if interest rates weren’t going up, I think we were kind of at the high end of what people would be willing to pay for a dollar of earnings.”

Investors will get their first big look at the state of corporate profits when many financial companies report later this week. JPMorgan Chase & Co., Citigroup Inc. and Wells Fargo & Co. report on Friday and can serve as bellwethers for the health of the broader economy. Delta Air Lines Inc., which reports Thursday, could help investors parse how airlines are handling a Covid-19 surge.

Next week, companies including freight giant J.B. Hunt Transport Services Inc., consumer-products company Procter & Gamble Co. and oil-field-services company Baker Hughes Co. are expected to report.

Analysts estimate that profits from companies in the S&P 500 rose 22% in the fourth quarter from a year earlier, according to FactSet. That would be a higher-than-average growth rate but much lower than in the past few quarters, when results were being compared against the knocked-down profits from early in the pandemic. In the second quarter of 2021, for example, S&P 500 earnings grew 91%.

The return to earth is expected to continue in the new year. Earnings from S&P 500 companies are expected to rise 9.4% in the year 2022, a slower pace than the 45% profit growth estimated for the year 2021. In 2019, the last full year before Covid-19 began affecting the U.S. economy, profits edged down about 0.1% for the year.

Investors examining corporate results in the coming weeks will look not just at the bottom line but how companies got there. While managers are facing rising costs for everything from raw materials to labor to shipping, many have succeeded in passing expenses along by raising their own prices.

The net profit margin for the S&P 500 hit 13.1% in the second quarter of 2021, the highest level in data going back to 2008, according to FactSet. It slipped to 12.9% in the third quarter and is expected to fall to 11.9% in the fourth.

How executives talk about the coming months might have the biggest effect on markets. Investors will want to know how the spread of the Omicron variant could continue to affect business. And they will be eager to hear how companies plan to manage wage increases and higher transportation costs, among other expenses.

“I do think from a guidance standpoint it could be pretty tricky for companies here in 2022,” said Jimmy Chang, chief investment officer at Rockefeller Global Family Office. “All these input costs have risen quite a bit compared to this time last year.”

The stakes are especially high for growth stocks, which trade at hefty multiples because they promise expanding future profits. Rising yields can hurt pricey stocks in particular because higher yields pressure the value of companies’ future cash flows. Higher yields also give investors more options as to where to park their money for a profit, making them less willing to take a risk on stocks.

Many growth stocks are found in the technology sector, which is expected to report lower earnings growth in the fourth quarter than the stock index as a whole. The tech sector traded last week at 27.1 times its projected earnings over the next 12 months, higher than the S&P 500’s multiple of 20.7 times. The energy group, by comparison, traded at 11.9 times its projected earnings and the financials group traded at 15.2 times.

During last week’s trading, the tech sector fell 4.7%, while energy rose 11% and financials added 5.4%.

“Especially given the valuations of some of the technology, there isn’t a lot of room for error here,” said Linda Bakhshian, a senior portfolio manager at Federated Hermes who focuses on value-style stocks. “So we really do need those margins to come through and their commentary to support continued performance into 2022.”

WSJ : Two Chinese Startups Tried to Catch Up to Makers of Advanced Computer Chip

Two Chinese Startups Tried to Catch Up to Makers of Advanced Computer Chips—and Failed
Foundries with ties to a little-known Chinese entrepreneur set out to match TSMC and Samsung, but never commercially produced an advanced semiconductor

China has spent billions of dollars in recent years trying to catch up to the world’s most advanced semiconductor makers.

Two foundry projects, led in part by a little-known entrepreneur then in his 30s, help show why China has yet to succeed.

The projects, in the Chinese cities of Wuhan and Jinan, were supposed to churn out semiconductors nearly as complex as the more-sophisticated chips made by industry leaders Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. and Samsung Electronics Co. , which have decades of chip-building experience.

Chinese officials kicked in hundreds of millions of dollars to support the upstarts. But it quickly became clear the plans had been too ambitious, and local officials had underestimated how difficult—and costly—it is to make complex high-end chips.

The two foundries, Wuhan Hongxin Semiconductor Manufacturing Corp. and Quanxin Integrated Circuit Manufacturing (Jinan) Co., burned through cash, yet never commercially built any chips.

HSMC formally shut down in June 2021. QXIC still exists but has suspended operations, and didn’t respond to requests for comment.

Over the past three years, at least six new major chip-building projects, including HSMC and QXIC, have failed in China, according to company statements, state media, local government documents and Tianyancha, a corporate registration database. At least $2.3 billion went into these projects, much of it coming from governments, the documents showed. Some never produced a single chip.

The Wall Street Journal spoke with a man who identified himself as one of the organizers of the HSMC and QXIC projects. Named Cao Shan in the Tianyancha database, he is listed as the previous chief executive of QXIC, a former board member of HSMC, and a former major shareholder in the firms. The Journal also spoke to former employees of QXIC and other people familiar with the matter for this article.

Beijing leaders and investors are poking through the wreckage of struggling semiconductor businesses in hopes of salvaging some parts, while also writing tougher rules to prevent future waste.

While the government for years has unofficially requested that certain chip makers seek approval for new projects, now approval is required for projects involving more than roughly $150 million in fixed asset investment, people familiar with the matter said.

In December, Tsinghua Unigroup Co., a Chinese chip conglomerate that defaulted on billions of dollars of bonds over the past year, said a consortium led by two state-backed semiconductor venture-capital firms would become its strategic investor.

Making more semiconductors is a vital priority for China. Chinese chip makers produce about 17% of the chips the country needs, according to International Business Strategies Inc., an industry consulting and analysis firm—leaving China reliant on foreign producers.

When it comes to building the most advanced chips, like ones used for smartphone and computer processors, China—which has been hit by U.S. sanctions restricting some companies from accessing certain chip-making technologies—could fall further behind, experts say.

Two entities involved in China’s semiconductor policies, the National Development and Reform Commission of China and the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, didn’t respond to requests for comment.

Evidence of China’s societal frustration over its dependence on foreign chips flared up in late December, after U.S. semiconductor giant Intel Corp. sent a letter asking suppliers to avoid sourcing from the Xinjiang region, where China’s government has conducted a campaign of forcible assimilation against religious minorities.

Angry about the perceived slight, Chinese social-media users criticized Intel, with some lamenting China’s lack of sufficiently-advanced domestic chips to substitute for Intel’s.

Intel apologized and said its letter was written only to comply with U.S. law.

Beijing in around 2014 began unveiling industry-support plans that included a $22 billion central-government kitty for chip investments, known as the Big Fund. Local governments set up similar funds. In 2019, the state established a second national semiconductor fund of about $30 billion.

Soon, chip money was sloshing across China. Tens of thousands of Chinese companies registered their businesses as related to semiconductors, including some whose main activities involved restaurants and cement-making, according to the Tianyancha database.

China did improve at some aspects of chip making, including designing chips. But some companies went belly up because they didn’t have sufficient expertise or capital, industry experts say.

The Wuhan and Jinan projects were intended to start by making chips with circuitry measured at 14 nanometers or smaller—an area dominated by TSMC and Samsung —before moving on within a few years to 7 nanometers, according to company materials and government documents.

HSMC attracted a former top TSMC executive as chief executive. QXIC recruited dozens of experienced engineers from Taiwan, including from TSMC, with relatively big pay packages, according to former employees.

Soon, according to state media, it became clear that HSMC was far short of the funding needed to make advanced chips, which can cost billions of dollars to produce commercially.

At QXIC, work progressed slowly, former employees said. Although the engineers QXIC recruited had knowledge in technical aspects of chip making, QXIC lacked knowledge to integrate those skills, one of the people said.

In August 2020, Wuhan’s local government said the HSMC project was suspended due to financial difficulties, according to state media, and it was formally shut down in 2021.

After several other government-sponsored chip projects also went under, Jinan’s government took over QXIC and began letting its employees go, according to people familiar with the matter.

An official at Jinan Innovation Zone, a Jinan government-run business district where QXIC is located, said the company’s operations have been suspended.

The Wall Street Journal located the man who identified himself as one of the organizers of the two projects through a phone number associated with one of QXIC’s main shareholders in the Tianyancha database.

The man said that while he had used the name Cao Shan in corporate documents, his real name was Bao Enbao. He said he had played an important role in helping assemble technology and talent for the projects and used the pseudonym Cao Shan to avoid potential troubles when recruiting in Taiwan, which has been scrutinizing talent poaching from the mainland.

He said he had around 15 years of experience in the industry, after founding a chip-design firm in 2005, and made connections at TSMC after ordering chips to be made there. When asked about domestic media reports that suggested his conduct wasn’t always aboveboard, he said: “Do you think local governments are that easily fooled?”

He said he left the Wuhan project in October 2018 after disagreeing with executives over how to develop it. He said that he left the Jinan project in December 2020 as Beijing increased scrutiny on chip projects, and that in May, Jinan’s government pushed the company he runs out as a main shareholder.

The Wuhan and Jinan governments didn’t respond to requests for comment.

As troubles emerged at projects like HSMC, Beijing recalibrated its approach. In October 2020, the National Development and Reform Commission, China’s economic planner, said that companies without talent, experience and sufficient technology had blindly set up semiconductor projects, and that officials who supported such projects would be held responsible.

WSJ : Diving SPACs Are a Warning for Aerospace Startups

Diving SPACs Are a Warning for Aerospace Startups
Virgin Orbit’s lackluster debut in the stock market should concern speculative ventures with larger valuations and far less tangible prospects

For speculative aerospace startups, taking off gets harder when market winds suddenly turn against you.

Last year consolidated special-purpose acquisition companies, or SPACs, as the preferred way to list firms that make no money but promise cosmic returns. Aerospace has fully embraced them, starting with British billionaire Richard Branson’s space-tourism venture, Virgin Galactic, in 2019 and then through a raft of small-satellite launchers—such as Rocket Lab and Astra Space —and makers of electric vertical-takeoff-and-landing vehicles, or eVTOL—like Joby Aviation, Archer Aviation, Vertical Aerospace and Lilium Air Mobility.

On Friday, Mr. Branson virtually attended the opening bell for the Nasdaq debut of his other space venture, Virgin Orbit, which was rung by Chief Executive Dan Hart. The shares closed up a whopping 24%, but are still down 12% since its SPAC merger was completed on Dec. 30.

Indeed, almost all recently SPAC-ed aerospace startups have taken a beating over the past three months, with shares in Virgin Galactic down 46% and those in Archer and Joby losing 43% and 31%, respectively.

More broadly, the market value of these futuristic moonshots has ebbed and flowed in lockstep with cryptocurrencies and “meme stocks,” launching them toward the moon in the first half of 2021 and later deflating them. As the year came to a close, investors became more discerning: They bought the shares of SPACs that had fallen close to or below their trust values, which almost ensures a return, while retaining a skeptical view of ex-SPAC ventures.

It should be a warning for upcoming aerospace startups with galactic valuations. The latest is Eve, the eVTOL subsidiary of Brazilian plane maker Embraer, which two weeks ago announced a SPAC deal that would give it a valuation of $2.9 billion—Embraer’s own market capitalization is only $3.1 billion. To be sure, Eve already has $5 billion in preorders, but it will be fighting with myriad competitors for a market that is closer to science fiction than to the $1 trillion potential size dreamed of by some analysts.

By contrast, small-satellite launchers are already a promising entry point into the burgeoning space economy. Rocket Lab remains richly valued but has taken the lead among them and stands out as the rare ex-SPAC with more conservative official projections than those of its analysts. On the other end of the spectrum, Virgin Orbit’s valuation is now the cheapest among high-profile aerospace startups relative to expected 2026 earnings and has likely fallen below that of Astra, which struggled with many failed launches last year.

Despite Friday’s rally, Virgin Orbit still looks unfairly maligned compared with its sibling Virgin Galactic, which isn’t expected by Wall Street to generate any operating income in the next five years: It is seen coming close to break-even next year and making a sizable profit in 2024. It has already delivered 19 satellites into orbit, and its clever use of a Boeing 747 jet as a mobile rocket platform provides any government with geopolitical concerns the ability to deploy satellites from its own airspace.

However, despite expecting to raise $383 million from its SPAC backers in August, it only managed to hold on to $68 million. Together with some extra funds by Mr. Branson and already committed private placements by big corporations like Boeing, the final gross proceeds added up to $228 million—barely above the minimum cash requirements of the merger agreement.

The fact that ex-SPAC aerospace stocks indiscriminately trade in tandem can provide daring investors with opportunities. But it is also a reminder of the big role that fickle sentiment will play in the fate of these speculative enterprises.

>>> Barron’s Weekend Summary

Barron’s Weekend Summary: Investors wanting to hedge against inflation, which makes stocks more volatile, have long turned to commodities


Cover Story:
-Investors wanting to hedge against inflation, which makes stocks more volatile, have long turned to commodities. If inflation is rising, the prices of commodities are typically rising, as well, so part of your portfolio will benefit even as some investment returns are muted. Energy futures have the best correlation with U.S. inflation, but over the long term, agriculture, livestock, and industrial metals are all positively correlated.

Tech Trader:
-This year, one of the most influential moments actually happened months before the show started. It was last October, when Facebook CEO Mark Zuckerberg changed the name of his company to Meta Platforms, and announced plans to invest $10 billion over the next year to help create the metaverse. From a practical point of view, Zuckerberg is betting that he can create a new platform on which to sell advertising, while also selling a lot more Oculus virtual reality headsets. But, so far, Zuckerberg’s biggest achievement has been to kick off an industry wide scramble to figure out just what the metaverse is —and how to profit from it.

The Trader:
-The biotech sector had a terrible 2021. The iShares Biotechnology exchange-traded fund, which weights its holdings by market capitalization, rose 1%, its worst year since 2018, while the equal-weighted SPDR S&P Biotech ETF (XBI) fell 25%, its worst year since at least 2007. This year was supposed to be better, but so far it’s been anything but, with the iShares ETF down 7.9% through Friday’s close and the SPDR ETF off 8%—their worst starts to a year since 2016.
-The post-pandemic world hasn’t been easy for Coca Cola. While the S&P 500 long ago regained its pre-Covid highs, Coca-Cola finished 2021 up 8% at $59.21, still a touch below its all-time high of $60.13 reached on Feb. 21, 2021 (although above its dividend-adjusted high of $56.36). Adding to the disappointment, shares of PepsiCo soared above their 2020 highs and finished 2021 up 17%.
-The Federal Reserve released the minutes of its December meeting last Wednesday, and apparently took the market by surprise. Observers pointed to the fact that the Fed discussed winding down its balance sheet—something Chairman Jerome Powell failed to mention at his press conference last month—and its perception of the job market, which appears to be close to full employment. Investors took the news badly. High-priced tech stocks tumbled, as did most stocks that could be labeled growth, including Tesla, Salesforce.com, and Moderna.

Features:
-There’s hardly been a better time to get hired with almost 11 million job openings in the U.S., a near-record high level. In November 4.5 million Americans quit their jobs—pushing the country’s quit rate to a 3% record high. Since the U.S. economy began recovering from the Great Recession, Americans have almost always achieved higher wages from switching jobs as opposed to staying at their current ones, according to the Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank’s Wage Growth Tracker, which uses data from the US Bureau of Labor Statistics.
-Since Covid first grabbed headlines, the combination of a market rally, an increase in savings, and a decrease in borrowing has boosted retirement account balances past pre-Covid highs. Fidelity Investments, for one, reported a record 760,300 401(k) and individual retirement accounts with seven-figure sums in the third quarter of 2021.

European Trader:
-Google and Facebook have been hit
with combined fines of EUR 210M ($237M) over their use of ‘cookies,’ France’s data privacy watchdog said on Thursday. France’s National Commission for Information Technology and Freedom fined Alphabet‘s Google €150M for making it difficult for internet users to refuse the data used to track users online. The breaches refer to google.fr and Youtube.com, both owned by Alphabet.

Emerging Markets:
Russia and its military allies Wednesday sent troops to Kazakhstan to help the country’s government suppress protests that have resulted in dozens of casualties among the demonstrators since the beginning of the week. Kazakhstan is a major oil producer, with output currently at about 1.6 million barrels a day, but the country’s three major oil operations seemed to be working Thursday. Tengizchevroil, a Chevron-led consortium operating the country’s highest-producing oil field in Tengiz, said that operations had not been “impacted” by the fact that workers had gathered in support of the demonstrations. Kazakhstan had also become in recent months a favored destination of Bitcoin miners who chose to leave China after Beijing’s recent crackdown on crypto assets.

Commodities:
There is pent-up demand for household items, corporate endeavors, municipal projects, and, of course, for the commodities that are needed in all kinds of production. Meanwhile, many of those commodities are in short supply. Add in supply-chain problems in getting those commodities into production and the produced goods to the end user, and it’s no wonder that prices are rising. Investors wanting to hedge against inflation, which makes stocks more volatile, have long turned to commodities: If inflation is rising, the prices of commodities are typically rising, as well, so part of your portfolio will benefit even as some investment returns are muted.

Streetwise:
Jack Hough asks: “Who needs parody cryptocurrency when car stocks are this exciting? Ford Motor, General Motors, Tesla, and Rivian Automotive each had price swings of more than 10% during the first trading week of the year. This, after some heady gains for the group last year. Predicting performance from here won’t be easy. I recently spoke with one analyst who says Tesla is headed to $1,400, and another who says $67. You know what they say: Sometimes you have to agree to disagree by a factor of 20.”

Enigma Market Update - 8 January 2022



Enigma Market Update - 8 January 2022
 

 

Saturday recap: selling pressure subsides

 

Market Movers
 

 

 

Desk Trading Flows
 

 

After a volatile week driven by macro headlines, prices settled into a tighter range this morning. Overhanging concerns of tightening monetary policy impacted all risk assets as crypto markets took a beating. Bitcoin stabilized near $41k, expected to trade sideways unless it breaches $38-40k support. Based on liquidation data, BTC & ETH futures markets signal healthier conditions moving forward after some traders got burned speculating on a premature market rebound. This morning the desk saw net-buying in BTC and more balanced flows in ETH, LTC, AAVE and BCH. 
Have a nice Saturday!

- Jory Fong, Digital Asset Sales: jfong@enigma-securities.io


 

Key Data & Headlines
 

 

 

Enigma Research
 

 

  • Ethereum's Next Step to POS, 12/6/21
  • Coverage Initiation: Perpetual Protocol, 11/4/21
  • BTC Basis is Back, 10/18/21

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DISCLAIMER:
The information contained in this note issued by Enigma Securities is not intended to be advice nor a recommendation concerning cryptocurrency investment nor an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any cryptocurrency or related financial instrumet. While we provide this information in good faith, it is not intended to be relied upon by you and we accept no liability nor assume any responsibility for the consequences of any reliance that may be placed upon this note. Enigma Securities Limited is an Appointed Representative of Makor Securities London Ltd., which is authorized and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority (625054).

 

 
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>>> Weekend Papers Summary

Weekend Papers Summary

NEW YORK TIMES
-Chicago teachers have voted to go remote as Covid cases surge nationwide. Teachers’ unions elsewhere are citing staffing issues and testing shortages. The tensions are a distinctly unwelcome development for Democrats, who fear an election backlash from parents concerned about risks and child care.
-US President Biden and British Prime Minister Johnson, two different leaders with differing approaches, both landed on a policy of coexisting with the virus. Analysts say they had little choice.
-The widening disparity between Tesla’s performance and that of established automakers last year reflects a technological change roiling the industry.
-A fire that raged through a public housing unit in Philadelphia left 12 people dead. But families have few options, with thousands waiting for subsidized homes.
-For almost two years, couches have been cubicles. Colleagues are instant message avatars. And people are reconsidering how much they should have to put up with from a boss.
-With his government under siege, Kazakhstan’s president turned to Russia for support. The choice could realign Central Asia’s politics.
-The tennis star Novak Djokovic is quarantining in a hotel where asylum seekers have been held for over a year under a program that has been widely criticized.
-NASA is providing updates as the James Webb telescope, the most powerful ever launched, deploys its mirrors, a crucial milestone for conducting future studies. Watch live.
-Cyber Ninjas, derided for Arizona Vote Review, said it will shut down.
The firm, which led the review in Maricopa County after former President Trump narrowly lost there, said it was insolvent and had laid off its workers.

THE FINANCIAL TIMES
-Wall Street’s biggest banks this month are set to report record profits for 2021 thanks to bumper investment banking fees and lower-than-expected losses on loans during the pandemic, with analysts cautioning it may take years to repeat such stellar earnings.
-BTCS, a public crypto firm, this week offered its investors what it called a “bividend” — a one-time payout of five cents per share, payable in either dollars or bitcoin.
-Apple at $3T. Tim Cook’s triumph as Jobs’ successor has been so unparalleled that the numbers don’t speak for themselves so much as they scream: Apple’s market value has grown by more than $700m a day from when Cook took over in August 2011 to this week when it struck $3tn, before falling back.
-In the early days of Covid, working from home looked like a win-win. Studies of when people were logging on and off suggested that many were maintaining or even increasing hours. One 2020 survey of American office workers found respondents reporting that both managers and subordinates were more productive. But the picture has since become more nuanced.
-China’s central city of Xi’an has recorded more than 1,900 infections over the past month, just a fraction compared with the numbers experienced in countries such as the US, which reported more than 1m cases on Tuesday.
-Citigroup will fire US employees at the end of January if they have not been vaccinated or received an exemption, according to a person briefed on the matter, adopting one of the strictest policies among big banks on Wall Street.
-The EU is resisting pressure to change rules forcing airlines to use or lose their valuable landing slots after warnings of thousands of half-empty and polluting “ghost flights” operating this winter.
-Kazakhstan’s former intelligence chief has been arrested on suspicion of treason, as the government seeks to restore order following violent protests that have left government buildings destroyed and dozens dead in the former Soviet country.
-In Moscow the hope is for “fairly quick results”, while Washington talks of uncertain outcomes. As US and Russian diplomats prepare for a summit in Geneva with Europe’s geopolitical balance at stake, the difference in mood is stark.
-US jobs growth slowed sharply in December, according to data released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics on Friday, suggesting the labor market’s recovery could be running out of steam. Looking beyond the headline figures, which showed just 199,000 positions were created, a different picture takes shape: economists argue the labor market is much stronger than it first appears, and is in fact in one of the most solid positions in history.
-The departing Andreessen Horowitz partner Katie Haun aims to raise at least $900M for a pair of cryptocurrency investment funds, in what would be one of the largest debuts for a new venture capital firm.
-The Shanghai Stock Exchange suspended trading in several bonds of Chinese property developer Shimao, a day after the company’s failure to make a loan payment increased fears that a cash crunch will spread more widely across the country’s embattled real estate industry.
-Investors this week deserted a trade that has generated big returns since the financial crisis, ditching shares of fast-growing technology companies in favor of staid businesses that had largely been overlooked by Wall Street.

THE NEW YORK POST
-The soft-on-crime Manhattan District Attorney’s office “omitted all facts” of a violent theft — including key information about an alleged weapon used during the crime — reducing the charges in the case to mere petit larceny, according to union and court documents. Newly-elected DA Alvin Bragg has already been under fire for a “soft on crime” progressive ideology, which has even had the NYPD’s top cop worried for the safety of her officers.
-The New York City Toy Fair, the Western Hemisphere’s biggest trade show for toys, is the latest victim of the Omicron virus, with some of the biggest retail buyers – including Walmart, Target and Amazon – pulling out of the in-person event, On the Money has learned. They join Hasbro, Jazwares and MGA Entertainment among others, which have already ditched plans to attend the fair, still set to take place at the Javits Center in Manhattan from Feb. 19-22. Others, including Tonka Truck maker Basic Fun, are on the fence about attending, sources say.
-Bitcoin has the potential to cross the $100,000 milestone in the coming years if investors increasingly treat the leading cryptocurrency as a store of value, according to a recent note from Goldman Sachs.

WWD : Balenciaga Is Teaming Up With Ye for Yeezy Gap

Balenciaga Is Teaming Up With Ye for Yeezy Gap

Balenciaga’s one-named creative director and WWD’s 2021 Newsmaker of the Year, Demna has unveiled his first surprise of the new year: A collaboration with Yeezy Gap that’s sure to make hype beasts hyperventilate.

The first release of products under the Yeezy Gap Engineered by Balenciaga label are set for a global release in June, with a second drop following later in the year.

Kanye West has a proven track record with Gap so far.

The first Yeezy Gap product, a $200 round puffer jacket, launched June 8, 2021, sold briskly and now commands a steep premium on resale sites. The second, a $90 sweatshirt launched Sept. 29, 2021, delivered the most sales in a single day in the retailer’s 52-year history, with 70 percent of customers new to the brand, according to Gap.

In a brief statement on Friday, Yeezy Gap said “this first-of-its-kind launch sees Ye’s peerless vision bring together the most influential designer of his generation, Demna, with iconic American brand, Gap.” (Ye is Kanye West’s new name since October.)

Yeezy Gap also unveiled a new logo for the collaboration, grounded in black with the letters YZY in caps.


West, who worked at Gap as a teenager in Chicago, signed a 10-year deal with the retailer in 2020, which raised some eyebrows considering his past erratic behavior, including pledging his support for president Donald Trump on Twitter, visiting him at Trump Tower, and wearing a Make America Great Again cap, to which many fans objected.

In July 2020, he announced his own candidacy for president, calling for support of the environment and arts, as well as police reform, among other things. But across the 12 states where his name appeared on ballots, he won fewer than 60,000 votes. He’s teased that he may run again in 2024.

Last year he continued to be in the headlines after wife Kim Kardashian West filed for divorce, and he made statements about getting back together with her, even as she moved on with “Saturday Night Live” star Pete Davidson.

In the last week, West has moved on himself and started seeing “Uncut Gems” actress Julia Fox. The two have been spotted together in New York City, reportedly trailed by a photographer hired by West.

On Thursday night, Interview Magazine published a series of arty photos and a first-person account by Fox detailing her date night with the rapper, including him stocking her hotel room with designer clothing, Cinderella-style. (West was also an early architect of Kardashian’s fashion.) While out on the town, the two attended “Slave Play” and dined at Carbone.

In other West news, it was revealed that he will headline the next Coachella Valley Music and Arts Festival in April, along with Billie Eilish. If the festival is not canceled by COVID-19, as it has been the past two years, the timing should add more buzz to the Yeezy Gap Engineered by Balenciaga collaboration launching in June. (West has been a fixture at Coachella for years, including hosting his popular Sunday Service at the event in Indio, Calif., on Easter Sunday in 2019.)

The Gap Balenciaga project suggests unexpected collaborations are still very much in vogue, including ones between designer and mass brands — this 18 years after Karl Lagerfeld stunned the industry by unveiling a one-off collection with H&M.

It also underlines the budding friendship between the American music superstar and the Georgian fashion designer, who share a Margiela-esque penchant for obscuring their faces with fabric.

Back in July, when they were still known as Kanye West and Demna Gvasalia, West parachuted into Paris to witness Gvasalia’s couture debut for Balenciaga, which marketed its return to the high-fashion calendar after a 53-year absence.

Demna soon after went on to act as creative director of release events for West’s latest album, “Donda.”

Those spectacles involved austere, yet majestic staging and lighting, dancers with black fabric covering their faces, and West donning a black Balenciaga bomber jacket festooned with sinister spikes.

Demna, who revealed in a WWD interview in December that he maps out collections as much as a year ahead of time, may have teased the collaboration with his fall 2021 effort for Balenciaga, unveiled last April.

Among the men’s looks was a hoodie stamped with the signature lettering of the famous American casual brand with one letter changed: Gay, and the word Pride written smaller underneath.

Shares in Gap Inc. shot up in June when the company revealed that West’s Yeezy design studio would create a line of basics for men, women and kids at “accessible price points” for its stores and website. Nigerian-born Central Saint Martins graduate Mowalola Ogunlesi was named design director for the line, whose ambition is to deliver Ye’s vision of utilitarian design for all.

Last March, Bloomberg reported that Gap expects the Yeezy line to reach $150 million in sales in its first full year, and it is anticipated that it could evolve into a billion-dollar brand.

The introduction of Yeezy is just one of the big changes underway at Gap, which has trimmed its store base and is viewing itself as more of a brand than a retailer, including debuting a home collection at Walmart. Even so, the retailer reported lower-than-expected earnings for the third quarter of 2021.

For the three-month period ending Oct. 30, total company revenues fell 1 percent to $3.94 billion, down from $3.99 billion a year earlier, mostly due to supply chain headwinds.

Still, Sonia Syngal, chief executive officer of Gap Inc., was upbeat about Yeezy. “We’re unlocking a new audience for Gap,” she said.

Meanwhile, Balenciaga continues to add pop-culture projects alongside its designer ready-to-wear and rarified couture, having unfurled a bespoke episode of “The Simpsons” alongside its Red Carpet Collection during Paris Fashion Week in October, alongside multiple tie-ups with Crocs.

Demna shuns the term collaborations, but last year teamed with Kering stablemate Alessandro Michele of Gucci for a “hacking project” that saw each designer pilfer brand iconography from each other for capsule product lines.

NYP : Fraser Perring, short seller who took on Wirecard, bets against Tesla

Fraser Perring, short seller who took on Wirecard, bets against Tesla

A short seller who accurately predicted the downfall of German payment processor Wirecard is now betting that Tesla’s stock will fall, claiming that the company is overvalued compared to auto giants Toyota and Volkswagen.

“Are Toyota and VW undervalued or is Tesla overpriced?” Fraser Perring, the founder of investigative financial research group Viceroy Research, tweeted Wednesday as he announced his short position on Tesla shares.

“Tesla’s quality and [full self-driving technology] will be measured by the consumers. I’m short again.”

Shares of Tesla fell by more than 3 percent during trading on Wall Street on Friday. Since the start of the new year, the company’s stock has dipped by more than 10 percent.

Overall, however, the stock has performed well, rising by more than 50 percent over the last year and more than 2,400 percent over the course of the last five years.

Tesla’s market capitalization of $1.1 trillion is more than three times that of its closest competitor, Toyota, which is worth $280 billion.

The third most valuable car company in the world is VW, with a market capitalization of $140 billion


But Toyota and Volkswagen are more profitable than Tesla and sell more cars. While Tesla sold nearly 309,000 cars last quarter, both Toyota and Volkswagen each reported more than 2 million vehicles sold during that same period.

Perring isn’t the first activist short-seller to predict Tesla’s demise.

Carson Block, the founder of hedge fund manager Muddy Waters Research, warned that it was a mistake to buy put options for Tesla, as he did. He also said it was wrong to underestimate Musk.

Last summer, Block said that he agreed that Tesla was overvalued. The company market capitalization at the time was $710 billion.

Other well-known investors who bought short positions with Tesla include David Einhorn of Greenlight Capital and Jim Chanos of Kynikos Associates.

An investor who sells a stock short profits if the value of the stock falls. An investor borrows shares of an asset and then sells the borrowed shares to buyers at market price.

The investor sells it with the intention of buying it back later for less money.

Musk has expressed disdain for short-sellers. In 2019, he said the practice “should be illegal.”

Musk’s outfit has become the most valuable carmaker in the world. In fourth quarter of fiscal year 2021, it set a record for vehicle deliveries, shipping 308,600 cars to customers, easily surpassing analysts’ projections.

Overall, Tesla shipped 936,172 cars from its factories to customers last year — an 87 percent increase from the previous year.

Tesla’s meteoric rise has galvanized legacy automakers like Volkswagen, Toyota, Fiat Chrysler, and others to pour tens of billions of dollars into production of their own fleets of electric vehicles in what has become an increasingly competitive sector.

Volkswagen and Toyota plan to invest a combined $170 billion in the next few years as part of a strategy to scale up their transition from internal-combustion engines to battery-powered vehicles.

Perring, a British analyst and former social worker, co-authored a report on Wirecard that alleged widespread fraud and money-laundering.

The firm eventually collapsed in 2020, owing nearly $4 billion to creditors.

FT : West needs to step up supply of copper for the energy transition

West needs to step up supply of copper for the energy transition
The alternative may be buying electric vehicles from China

Does the energy transition need a “Circular 5”? Back in the late 1940s the US Atomic Energy Commission fretted that it could not procure enough uranium on the private market to meet the requirements of its nuclear weapons production programmes.

The initial supply of Congolese uranium for the wartime Manhattan project had been scavenged in late 1942 from a warehouse in Staten Island, NY, where it had been sent in 1940 by an anti-Nazi Belgian businessman.

That uranium was enough to spark the first couple of wartime reactors, as well as a handful of nuclear weapons. But there did not seem to be enough uranium ore to continuously feed the vast establishment that had been built up to provide America with its superpower ace in the hole.

So beginning in April 1948, the AEC began issuing a series of public “circulars” that offered a minimum guaranteed price for uranium and a 10-year purchase contract, along with bonus payments for significant uranium finds in the US. The most fondly remembered was “Circular 5”, which established premium prices for higher grade ore, and which was in effect from February 1949 to March 1962.

By then Circular 5 had also produced a couple of centi-millionaires with wealth of more than $100m. One of them built the Hirshhorn Museum and Sculpture Garden on Washington’s National Mall. Another told me, proudly, that he had donated $500,000 in cash to the Nixon campaign, which was quite illegal since he was a foreign national. So the Circular 5 profiteers gave back to society, albeit with mixed results.

I was thinking about Circular 5 while watching (remotely) the Consumer Electronics Show this week. The star objects were electric cars, charged, of course, with renewable energy.

You cannot get to the energy transition without copper and other essential metals. Cobalt, excavated by all those child miners for our EVs and phones, can be substituted, though at a cost in performance and usable life. Lithium and rare earths, which you hear about at every cocktail party or Zoom call, are actually fairly common.

But copper, with its high conductivity, efficient heat transfer and ductility, is critical for motors, transformers, wiring, and, in a warming world, air-conditioner piping. And as North America, Europe and Australia accelerate the transition, their own domestic production is in long-term decline.

According to CRU, a commodities consultancy, copper demand from renewables will be about 801,000 tonnes in 2022 out of total global consumption of about 25m tonnes. Over the next four years, the company says, EVs and renewables will account for 72 per cent of the total growth in refined copper demand.

Meanwhile, the Chinese state and its allied metal companies have played the part of the American AEC. After some lean years in the past decade, the incumbent metals companies conserved cash flow and pulled back from new projects. The Chinese moved in to take their place, particularly in Africa.

So now the developed world and its green transitions are all hat (new EV models) and no cattle (ready-to-hand copper). You may have noticed that the COP 26 “pledges” included a lot of commitments to EVs, solar panel installation, charging stations and wind turbines, but nothing whatsoever about producing new metals to build them.

And as the IMF pointed out last month, “under a net zero scenario . . . current copper, lithium and platinum supplies also are inadequate to satisfy future needs, with a 30 per cent to 40 per cent gap versus demand”.

The metals industry response has been very impressive in terms of greenwashing graphics in annual reports; less so in new project development. There has not been an announcement of a major new greenfield copper mine for over two years.

The markets have noticed, and copper prices were up about 25 per cent last year. At close to $10,000 per metric tonne, LME copper has been “in backwardation”, or short physical supply, for several months. The current “visible” warehouse stocks are sufficient for just six days’ consumption.

The tight supply has emboldened copper bulls. A Goldman Sachs note in mid-December said: “We continue to forecast copper prices rising to $15,000 by 2024 and even higher through 2025.”

If North Americans and Europeans are serious about any energy transition, they might consider a “Circular 5” for transition metals. Or they can buy their cars from the Chinese, perhaps with Tesla badges.