FT : We’re asking the wrong questions about stablecoins

We’re asking the wrong questions about stablecoins
Real issue is whether these crypto assets should be allowed to exist at all

In the wake of the collapse of one of the world’s biggest so-called stablecoins, people are asking the wrong questions.

Stablecoins are touted as the safer part of the crypto market, designed to hold a constant value per coin of $1. But it did not work out that way for the recently stricken terraUSD.

Its dramatic failure has raised questions about which kinds of stablecoins are the most stable, and about what guardrails are needed to protect users. These are not the questions we should be asking, though. The real question is: “Should stablecoins even exist?” 

Yes, terraUSD had a more fragile structure than some other stablecoins. It was a so-called “algorithmic” stablecoin that sought to maintain a $1 value through a complex relationship with a paired cryptocurrency, luna. Last week, terraUSD plunged in value to under 10 cents as demand for both nosedived.

However, terraUSD’s idiosyncrasies do not mean that other forms of stablecoins are actually stable, nor that there is a place for stablecoins in our financial system.

We often hear that stablecoins are the future of payments, but they aren’t really used to pay for real-world goods and services. We are told by supporters that “it’s early days”, but what could stablecoins ever do that non-blockchain-based payments solutions couldn’t do better?

Blockchain technology needs to involve wasteful computations in order to discourage attacks, so it does not scale well. In addition, blockchains can have data added but not deleted from them, which prevents the reversal of mistaken or fraudulent transactions. It’s hard to see how blockchain payments could ever be faster or more efficient than more centralised alternatives.

Crypto lobbyists may say that these technological limitations are worth it because they get rid of centralised intermediaries. In reality, though, crypto is rife with intermediaries. The biggest stablecoins, tether and USDC, are both issued by centralised intermediaries. TerraUSD claimed to be decentralised, but when things started to unravel, holders looked to the Twitter feed of co-founder Do Kwon — who was clearly calling the shots.

And let’s not forget that to buy stablecoins or convert them back into fiat currency, most users will rely on an exchange, such as the Bitfinex and Coinbase exchanges that are affiliated with tether and USDC, respectively. (The biggest stablecoins are affiliated with the biggest exchanges, which profit from the associated transaction fees).

In sum, stablecoins start with a convoluted and inefficient base technology in order to avoid intermediaries, and then add intermediaries (often with apparent conflicts of interest) back in.

And then there are the negative impacts on those of us who don’t even use stablecoins: the environmental costs of blockchain transactions; ransomware attacks; and the risk of future financial instability caused by stablecoin runs if the sector continues to grow.

Given these fundamental flaws, asking “what guardrails should we put around stablecoins?” is the wrong question. As we’ve learned from experience with bank deposits and money market mutual funds, the only truly effective way to prevent runs and make stablecoins stable is to put a government guarantee behind them. It seems like a truly terrible idea to guarantee something that has no real use case other than facilitating crypto speculation.

One option that should be on the table is banning stablecoins. This is something we already do with other dangerous products, but hasn’t really been part of this debate so far. Maybe that’s because people believe the decentralisation hype, and think that there’s no way to do it. But given how intermediated stablecoins actually are, there are many points through which a ban could be enforced.

Centralised intermediaries could be banned from issuing stablecoins, and centralised exchanges could be banned from trading them. As for the more decentralised stablecoins and exchanges out there, these are typically operated by “decentralised autonomous organisations” or “DAOs” that act based on votes cast by those who hold governance tokens in them.

Authorities could prohibit anyone from holding governance tokens in any DAO that issues or provides services in connection with a stablecoin. Right now, these governance tokens tend to be concentrated in the hands of founders and venture capital firms. Without VC funding, there’s a good chance that stablecoins would disappear — and that we’d all be a lot better off.

FT : Quant hedge funds reap windfall during market ructions

Hedge funds that use powerful computers to run their portfolios are making huge profits in this year’s market turmoil, marking a resurgence for a sector trying to recover from a long stretch of weak performance.

Trend-following hedge funds, which use mathematical models to try to predict market movements, had struggled for years as central bank bond-buying suppressed much of the volatility on which they thrive.

But the $337bn industry is now making its biggest gains since the 2008 financial crisis, according to data provider HFR.

These quantitative funds have profited in particular from bets against government bonds, which have been shaken by expectations that the Federal Reserve will keep raising interest rates aggressively to fight high inflation. They have also capitalised on a surge in energy and commodity prices, fuelled by supply chain bottlenecks and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

“Now is one of those 2008 moments where everyone [in trend-following] is doing well again. The trends are clearer”, said Leda Braga, founder of Systematica Investments and former head of systematic trading at BlueCrest.

Fwd:Briefing; WRAPX; Closing Stock Market Summary

Closing Stock Market Summary

The rebound effort that began late in the day last Friday hit a wall today as market participants grappled with concerns about economic and earnings growth prospects. Many stocks got battered and bruised hitting that wall while others fared reasonably well.

The biggest pains came early when the Nasdaq Composite was down as much as 3.8%. The S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average were down 2.5% and 1.6% at their worst levels of the day. There was some healing, however, that occurred as the day progressed. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rallied into positive territory and closed near its high for the session. Meanwhile, the Nasdaq and S&P 500 ended the session with lesser declines of 2.3% and 0.8%, respectively.

Unlike the early selling, there wasn't a specific news catalyst for the turnaround effort. Ironically, the early losses themselves likely served as the spark for the turnaround bid as market participants came back to the idea that the stock market is oversold and due for a more meaningful recovery bid.

That notion, though, got put to a serious test this morning following a spate of developments that played into existing concerns about a slowdown in growth here and abroad that could lead to an eventual cut in earnings growth estimates:

  • Snap (SNAP 12.79, -9.68, -43.1%) said after Monday's close that it expects its Q2 revenue and adjusted EBITDA to be below its prior guidance because the macroeconomic environment has deteriorated further and faster than anticipated.
  • Best Buy (BBY 73.65, +1.07, +1.5%) acknowledged that it saw a worsening in macro conditions as it lowered its FY23 comparable sales guidance to (3.0%)-(6.0%) from (1.0%)-(4.0%).
  • Small-cap specialty apparel retailer Abercrombie & Fitch (ANF 19.03, -7.70, -28.8%) reported disappointing fiscal Q1 results and issued disappointing guidance, citing higher costs and lower sales due to an assumed inflationary impact on the consumer.
  • Preliminary May manufacturing and services PMI readings out of Japan, the eurozone, and the U.S. showed a deceleration in activity versus April.
  • The April New Home Sales Report was much weaker than expected and included a downward revision for March.
  • UBS and JPMorgan cut their 2022 GDP growth estimates for China; and reports suggested Beijing has stepped up its quarantine efforts to stop the spread of COVID.

The confluence of these developments undercut most sectors, particularly the communication services (-3.7%), consumer discretionary (-2.6%), and information technology (-1.6%) sectors. To be fair, those sectors finished comfortably off their worst levels of the day, as did most sectors.

Nonetheless, the slowdown concerns were evident in the outperformance of the counter-cyclical utilities (+2.0%), consumer staples (+1.6%), and health care (+0.3%) sectors. Real estate (+1.2%) also outperformed, bolstered by the drop in market rates, which was an offshoot of concerns about the economic environment and the ongoing struggles for the stock market.

The 10-yr note yield settled the day down 10 basis points at 2.76% and the 2-yr note yield settled the day down 11 basis points at 2.50%.

The U.S. Dollar Index slipped 0.3% to 101.74, the CBOE Volatility Index jumped 4.2% to 29.67, and the fed funds futures market priced in a noticeably lower probability of 50 basis point rate hikes at the September and November FOMC meetings.

Reviewing today's economic data:

  • New home sales decreased 16.6% month-over-month in April to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 591,000 units (consensus 750,000) from a downwardly revised 709,000 (from 763,000) in March. On a year-over-year basis, new home sales were down 26.9%.
    • The key takeaway from the report is that new home sales are counted when a contract is signed. The sharp drop from March, and the large miss versus the consensus estimate, underscores the affordability pressures that quickly emerged with the spike in mortgage rates.
  • The preliminary IHS Markit Manufacturing PMI for May decreased to 57.5 from 59.2 in the final reading for April. The preliminary IHS Markit Services PMI for May decreased to 53.5 from 55.6 in the final reading for April.

Looking ahead, market participants will receive the weekly MBA Mortgage Applications Index, April Durable Goods Orders Report, EIA Crude Oil Inventories, and the FOMC Minutes for the May meeting on Wednesday.

  • Dow Jones Industrial Average -12.1% YTD
  • S&P 500 -17.3% YTD
  • S&P 400 -16.2% YTD
  • Russell 2000 -21.4% YTD
  • Nasdaq Composite -28.0% YTD

>>> US After Hours Summary: WEN +19.9% jumps as Trian Fund to explore potential transactions; CAL +12.2%, JWN +11.2%, TOL +5%, A +3.4%, INTU +2.8% higher on earnings

After Hours Summary: WEN +19.9% jumps as Trian Fund to explore potential transactions; CAL +12.2%, JWN +11.2%, TOL +5%, A +3.4%, INTU +2.8% higher on earnings

After Hours Gainers:

Companies trading higher in after hours in reaction to earnings/guidance: CAL +12.2%, JWN +11.2% (also authorizes new $500 mln share repurchase program), TOL +5% (also authorizes new $900 mln share repurchase program), A +3.4%, INTU +2.8%, VNET +1.9%, URBN +1.2%

Companies trading higher in after hours in reaction to news: WEN +19.9% (Trian Fund to explore and evaluate potential transactions), RICK +10.1% (increases share buyback authorization by $25 mln), DDS +5.4% (in sympathy with JWN earnings), M +3.6% (in sympathy with JWN earnings), RKLB +1.6% (Varda will procure a fourth Photon spacecraft), LYFT +0.7% (will slow hiring and reduce budgets for some departments, according to WSJ), QUOT +0.3% (names new CEO), OPY +0.2% (authorizes new 550 mln share repurchase program)

After Hours Losers:

Companies trading lower in after hours in reaction to earnings/guidance: OOMA -2.6%, ARCE -2.5%, RAMP -0.1% (also intends to repurchase $150 mln of shares by end of calendar 2022)

Companies trading lower in after hours in reaction to news: VRCA -37.9% (PDUFA date passes for VP-102), IDCC -8.7% (announces $350 mln convertible notes offering), KDNY -6.7% (stock offering; also files mixed securities shelf offering), INVZ -3.3% (stock offering), BV -0.2% (files for $500 mln mixed securities shelf offering; also files for 50,633,123 offering by selling shareholders), VVV -0.2% (purchases partner's interest in VCA Solutions JV), JNJ -0.1% (Janssen presents study results showing clinical efficacy for TREMFYA), ABT -0.1% (to release limited quantities of EleCare; plans to restart production at Sturgis facility on June 4)