>>> TradeGate Pre-Market Indications

DAX:
  • Deutsche Bank (DBK TH) +1.6%
    • Deutsche Bank Says It Has ‘Very Limited’ Direct Russia Exposure
  • Zalando (ZAL TH) +1%
  • Deutsche Telekom (DTE TH) -1%
MDAX:
  • K+S (SDF TH) +2.7%
    • K+S FY Dividend per Share Beats Estimates
  • Uniper (UN01 TH) +2.2%
  • Hannover Re (HNR1 TH) +1.4%
    • Hannover Re FY Ebit Misses Estimates
  • Daimler Truck (DTG TH) +1.3%
  • Duerr (DUE TH) +1.1%
  • Aixtron (AIXA TH) -1.1%
  • Rheinmetall (RHM TH) -1.8%
  • Hugo Boss (BOSS TH) -2.2%
    • Hugo Boss FY Ebit Beats Estimates
SDAX:
  • LPKF (LPK TH) +3.9%
  • About You (YOU TH) +1.8%
  • Traton (8TRA TH) +1.8%
  • Suedzucker (SZU TH) +1.6%
  • DWS (DWS TH) +1.4%
  • Encavis (ECV TH) -1.4%
  • MorphoSys (MOR TH) -1.8%

>>> What to look at today - 10th of March 2022

Asia stocks joined a global equities rebound Thursday as dip-buyers leaned into speculation that weeks of market gyrations may have priced in the economic impact of the conflict in Ukraine. Oil steadied after a sharp decline.  An MSCI Inc. gauge of Asia-Pacific stocks was on track for its biggest jump since November 2020, up more than 2%. U.S. futures fluctuated after benchmark indexes in America and Europe notched their strongest single-day gains since 2020. Amazon.com Inc. surged more than 10% in late U.S. trade after announcing a share split and $10 billion buyback plan. European futures ticked higher. Late in the U.S., the House voted to ban Russian energy imports and passed a long-delayed $1.5 trillion spending bill that would fund the U.S. government through the rest of the fiscal year and provide $13.6 billion in aid to Ukraine. In Asia, mining giant Rio Tinto Group said it’s joined the ranks of multinationals shunning Russia.  The searing gains across commodity markets have stalled, with oil trading back below $110 a barrel. The United Arab Emirates said it will call on the OPEC+ alliance to boost oil output faster, though the energy minister later appeared to temper that message. The dollar edged higher after sliding on the improved risk appetite, and Japan’s yen neared a five-year low versus the greenback. The 10-year Treasury yield hovered around 1.94%.  These reversals are the latest twist in volatile markets as investors assess the risk of an inflation shock that could derail global growth, just as the Federal Reserve prepares what’s expected to be the first of several rate hikes next week. U.S. consumer price inflation is likely to hit another multi-decade high in data due Thursday, and though the searing gains in commodities seem to have stalled for now, markets are still beholden to developments in the war in Ukraine and Russian sanctions. In cryptocurrencies, Bitcoin traded back below $40,000, after a sharp rally in digital tokens sparked by optimism about an impending U.S. overhaul of crypto oversight that could provide regulatory clarity for investors. US After Hours After Hours Summary: AMZN +6.9% jumps on 20-for-1 stock split; MQ +16.7%, CRWD +12.5% higher on earnings; ASAN -16.6%, BASE -13.8% fall on earnings

Nikkei +3.94% Hang Seng +0.60% CSI +1.70% Shnaghai +1.34% Shenzen +2.21%

Eur$ 1.1054 CNH 6.3284 CNY 6.3228 JPY 116.05 GBP 1.3179 CHF 0.9268 RUB 139.9975 TRY 14.7514 WTI$ 110.11 +1.20% GOld 1985.33 -0.33% BTC 39,300 -6.10% ETC 2590 -4.32%

S&P -0.18% Nasdaq -0.21% EuroStoxx +0.33% FTSE +0.41% Dax +0.46% SMI

Macro :
- Bitcoin Drops Below $40,000, Paring Gains From U.S. Crypto Order
- When 21x P/E Looks a Bargain, EU Tech Offers Shelter Amid Storm
- U.S. Weighs Sanctions on Russian Nuclear Power Supplier Rosatom
- Biden Urged to Use Cold-War Powers to Fight High Energy Prices

Keep an eye on :
- AC FP : Accor Jumps; Berenberg Turns Bullish on Limited Russia Exposure
- AF FP : Air France, Delta May Be Interested in Italy’s ITA: Repubblica
- MT NA : ArcelorMittal to Keep Sestao Plant Shut Due to Electricity Costs
- T US : AT&T-Discovery Bond Orders Top $90 Billion, Easing Market Worry
- BALN SW : Baloise FY Profit Beats Estimates
- BAYN GY : Bayer Sells Environmental Science Unit to Cinven for $2.6B
- BOKA NA : HAL Offers to Buy Boskalis for EU32.50/Shr in Cash: M&A Snapshot
- BOKA NA : Boskalis FY Ebitda Beats Estimates
- CARLB DC : Carlsberg Suspends 2022 Financial Guidance Due to Russia War
- CPI LN : Capita FY Adjusted Operating Profit Misses Estimates
- CNP FP : CNP Assurances in Exclusive Talks to Sell CNP Partners
- CSGN SW : Credit Suisse Flags $914 Million Russia Exposure (Correct)
- DIE BB : D’Ieteren, VGP Join Belgium’s BEL20, Replacing Melexis, Telenet
- DBK GY : Deutsche Bank Net Loan Exposure to Russia EU600m at Dec. 31
- DNB NO : DNB Recruits Equity Analyst From Danske Bank to Replace Masdal
- ENI IM : London SPAC to Target Appetite for Energy Transition: ECM Watch
- RF FP : Eurazeo SE Assets Under Management EU30.87B Vs. EU21.76B Y/y
- HNR1 GY : Hannover Re FY Ebit Misses Estimates
- BOSS GY : Hugo Boss FY Ebit Beats Estimates
- DEC FP : JCDecaux FY Adjusted Ebit Beats Estimates
- SDF GY : K+S FY Dividend per Share Beats Estimates
- LEG GY : LEG Immobilien FY FFO I per Share Beats Estimates
- LNZ AV : Lenzing FY Dividend per Share Matches Estimates
- LSEG LN : Ex-LSE Chief Rolet Close to Quit as Russian PhosAgro’s Chair:Sky
- MDM FP : Maisons du Monde FY Ebitda Misses Estimates
- MLP GY : MLP Sees 2022 Ebit EU75M to EU85M
- MTX GY : MTU Aero Explores Alternative Material Sources to Russia: Rtrs
- NN NA : NN Group to Reappoint David Cole as Chair of Supervisory Board
- SMCP FP : SMCP FY Sales EU1.04B Vs. EU873M Y/y
- SO FP : Somfy FY Current Operating Income Misses Estimates
- OLG FP : Olympique Lyonnais for Sale as Raine Group Seeks Buyer: Sportico
- TSLA US : Tesla, Musk $40 Million Fine-Distribution Plan Proposed by SEC
- TIT IM : Vivendi Backs Telecom Italia Recovery Plan; Looking at Options
- TKO FP : Tikehau Posts 2021 Net Income of EU318.7M
- VIV FP : Vivendi FY Ebita Beats Estimates
- VIV FP : Vivendi Backs Telecom Italia Recovery Plan; Looking at Options
- VIV FP : Vivendi Seeks Acquisitions in Pay-TV and Magazines: FT

>>> Europe : Brokers Upgrades & Downgrades - 10th of March 2022

>>> Up
* Givaudan Raised to Hold at SocGen; PT 3,500 Swiss francs
* IMCD Raised to Buy at ING; PT 166 euros
* KGHM Raised to Buy at Ipopema Securities SA; PT 200 zloty
* M&G Raised to Buy at Berenberg; PT 267 pence
* Molten Ventures Raised to Buy at Jefferies; PT 1,000 pence
* Prosus Raised to Buy at Investec; PT 63 euros
* Restaurant Group Raised to Buy at Peel Hunt; PT 90 pence
* Temenos Raised to Neutral at Goldman; PT 90 Swiss francs
* Thales PT Raised to 142 euros from 108 euros at Citi

>>> Down
* BAM Cut to Add at AlphaValue/Baader
* Direct Line Cut to Add at Numis; PT 300 pence
* dotdigital Cut to Hold at Deutsche Bank; PT 88 pence
* Stagecoach Cut to Hold at Liberum; PT 105 pence
* Yandex Cut to Neutral at JPMorgan; PT $26

>>> Initiation
* Cool Rated New Buy at Fearnley; PT 105 kroner
* Devolver Digital Rated New Buy at Panmure Gordon; PT 210 penc
* Science in Sport PLC Rated New Outperform at Davy; PT 75 pence
* Star7 S.P.A Rated New Buy at Alantra Equities; PT 12.60 euros

>>> Call
* Experian Set for Faster Growth, Rated New Buy at Liberum
* Life Insurance Underperformance Wrong, M&G, NN Raised: Berenberg

>>> US After Hours Summary: AMZN +6.9% jumps on 20-for-1 stock split; MQ +16.7%,

After Hours Summary: AMZN +6.9% jumps on 20-for-1 stock split; MQ +16.7%, CRWD +12.5% higher on earnings; ASAN -16.6%, BASE -13.8% fall on earnings

After Hours Gainers:

Companies trading higher in after hours in reaction to earnings/guidance: MQ +16.7%, CRWD +12.5%, CMRE +4% (also declares special dividend of $0.50/sh), SPIR +2.9%, KRO +1.9%, ERJ +1%, ESTE +0.8%

Companies trading higher in after hours in reaction to news: AMZN +6.9% (announces 20-for-1 stock split and $10 bln share repurchase authorization), GTBP +1.2% (presents preclinical data demonstrating TriKE driving NK cell immunotherapy against NSCLC), CROX +0.1% (pauses operations and importation of goods in Russia), ENS +0.1% (authorizes new $150 mln share repurchase program), APAM +0.1% (reports February AUM)

After Hours Losers:

Companies trading lower in after hours in reaction to earnings/guidance: ASAN -16.6%, BASE -13.8%, FOSL -13.7%, BEKE -0.1%

Companies trading lower in after hours in reaction to news: INDO -7.2% (stock offering), MGY -5.5% (announces proposed block trade of 7.5 mln shares), NTLA -3% (confirms receipt of Orphan Drug Designation for NTLA-5001), HRZN -3% (stock offering), JCI -0.6% (increases dividend), GPRK -0.4% (names new CEO, increases dividend, reports earnings), ATI -0.1% (terminates joint venture with Russian-based VSMPO), COST -0.1% (COO to retire), MUR -0.1% (CFO to retire), SONY -0.1% (to suspend PlayStation hardware and software shipments in Russia, according to The Verge)

WSJ : EPA Restores California’s Power to Set Tighter Car-Pollution Standards

EPA Restores California’s Power to Set Tighter Car-Pollution Standards
Biden administration’s move ends conflict between state and federal regulators that began under Trum

ASHINGTON—The Biden administration restored California’s ability to set stricter air-pollution limits for auto makers, ending a conflict with the state’s air-quality regulators that began under then-President Donald Trump.

U.S. Environmental Protection Agency officials said Wednesday that their decision to restore California’s ability to set emissions standards for passenger cars and trucks would improve air quality and combat climate change.

California, the nation’s biggest car market, had long set emissions standards that exceed requirements set by the federal government, using the power of a waiver it was granted under the Clean Air Act. More than a dozen states follow its regulations, and auto makers have used California’s standards as their guidelines to avoid manufacturing different cars for varying standards.

League of Conservation Voters Board Chair Carol M. Browner, who led the EPA during the Clinton administration, said Wednesday’s move to boost fuel efficiency and electric vehicles “is especially welcome news” as the Russian invasion of Ukraine is helping to drive “up the price of oil and gasoline.”

The Trump administration eliminated the state’s ability to set tougher standards in 2019. Officials at the time said it would give drivers access to cheaper, safer cars and provide auto manufacturers certainty as they engineer future models that comply with federal rules for curbing air pollution.

EPA officials said Wednesday that the Trump administration’s move was “decided in error.”

“Our partnership with states to confront the climate crisis has never been more important,” EPA Administrator Michael Regan said in a statement. “With today’s action, we reinstate an approach that for years has helped advance clean technologies and cut air pollution for people not just in California, but for the U.S. as a whole.”

The reinstatement sets the stage for California regulators to impose electric-vehicle sales goals and tailpipe-emissions requirements that are even stronger than what President Biden, a Democrat, proposed last year. California is considering a mandate of 61% zero-emission vehicle sales by 2030. Mr. Biden in August set a voluntary target for half of U.S. auto sales to be zero-emission vehicles by 2030.

In a statement, California Gov. Gavin Newsom called Wednesday’s restoration “a major victory for the environment, our economy, and the health of families across the country that comes at a pivotal moment underscoring the need to end our reliance on fossil fuels.”

California regulators are also considering rules that are slightly tougher than the EPA’s proposal to require auto makers to achieve a fleetwide average fuel-efficiency equivalent of 52 miles a gallon by the 2026 model year, said Scott Hochberg, a transportation attorney at the nonprofit Center for Biological Diversity. Still, they are under pressure from environmental and climate groups to do more.

“It needs to be much higher for the state to reclaim its climate leadership,” he said.

Texas and 13 other states are challenging those rules in court. Texas Republican Attorney General Ken Paxton said the proposed federal standards would harm oil-producing states. Representatives for Mr. Paxton didn’t respond to a request for comment.

Regulators at the U.S. Transportation Department’s National Highway Traffic Safety Administration—under Congress’s order to reduce dependence on imported oil—began setting fuel-economy standards in the 1970s, as measured by miles a gallon, for cars and trucks sold in the U.S. The EPA later joined in to set limits for air pollutants from vehicle exhaust. Auto makers that don’t comply with the requirements risk fines.

Auto makers for years fought tougher fuel-efficiency standards, especially as sport-utility vehicles became more popular and made the targets harder to hit. While some auto makers pledged to keep their standards elevated, General Motors Co. , Toyota Motor Corp. and Stellantis NV initially sided with the Republican Trump administration in the lawsuit filed by Democratic-led California and other states that challenged the revocation.

Those companies abandoned their legal position after Mr. Biden was elected. More recently, the industry’s shift toward developing electric vehicles has made them more confident they can meet the fuel-efficiency standards, auto-market analysts said.

Shortly after taking office, Mr. Biden ordered federal regulators to review the Trump revocation as part of a larger effort to unwind the previous administration’s climate and environmental policies. In April, EPA officials said the agency would take public input as part of its review of the revocation, an early step toward restoring it. In December, officials at the Transportation Department repealed its portion of the Trump-era rule.

Jeff Alson, a former EPA adviser who helped set vehicle-emissions standards, said the return of California’s standard-setting power reinstates the relationship between state and federal regulators that over decades has helped the nation attain cleaner air.

“The U.S. has really been a global leader in health-related solutions for cars,” he said. “It’s easy to forget that.”

>>> US Close Dow +2% S&P+2,57% Nasdaq+3,60% Russell +2,71% VIX 32,39 -7,8%

Closing Stock Market Summary

The S&P 500 rallied 2.6% on Wednesday, as buy-the-dip efforts were emboldened by a 12% drop in oil prices ($108.88, -14.88, -12.0%). The Nasdaq Composite gained 3.6%, the Russell 2000 gained 2.7%, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 2.0%.

The pullback in oil was due to a confluence of factors, including hopeful-sounding rhetoric from Russia and Ukraine in front of ceasefire talks tomorrow, the UAE vouching support for OPEC to increase production, and news that U.S. officials want Venezuela to increase oil exports to the States in exchange for an ease in sanctions. 

A 12% decline for a commodity that is still up 45% for the year was the type of drawdown needed to revive risk sentiment, even if the macro environment was still inflationary. It's too early to know if oil peaked for the near term, but there was hope that consumers could start to see relatively lower prices at the gas pump. 

Stocks that were hit the hardest this month were among the biggest gainers today, particularly those in the S&P 500 information technology (+4.0%), financials (+3.6%), communication services (+3.5%), and consumer discretionary (+2.9%) sectors. 

The energy sector (-3.2%), on the other hand, fell 3% amid the weaker oil prices while the utilities sector (-0.8%) was the only other sector that closed lower. Both sectors remained higher for month, so there was likely some profit-taking activity in the groups. 

Bumble (BMBL 23.64, +6.98, +41.9%) was an individual standout, with shares soaring 42% on better-than-feared earnings results. 

Besides the scope of today's gains, the risk-on mindset was corroborated by declines in the CBOE Volatility Index (32.45, -2.68, -7.6%), the U.S. Dollar Index (98.00, -1.06, -1.1%.), gold prices ($1987.20, -60.10, -2.9%), and Treasury prices. 

To be fair, Treasuries might have been pressured by an acknowledgement that one trading day doesn't remove inflationary pressures and that the Fed is still on track to hike rates multiple times this year, starting next week. On a related note, the $34 billion 10-yr Treasury note auction received lukewarm demand. 

The 2-yr yield increased four basis points to 1.67%, and the 10-yr yield increased eight basis points to 1.95%. 

Reviewing Wednesday's economic data:

  • Job openings decreased to 11.263 million in January from a revised record-high of 11.448 million (from 10.925 million) in December.
  • The weekly MBA Mortgage Applications Index rose 8.5% following a 0.7% decline in the prior week.

Looking ahead, investors will receive the Consumer Price Index for February, the weekly Initial and Continuing Claims report, and the Treasury Budget for February on Thursday.

  • Dow Jones Industrial Average -8.4% YTD
  • Russell 2000 -10.2% YTD
  • S&P 500 -10.3% YTD
  • Nasdaq Composite -15.3% YTD

FT : UK impounds private jet while it probes possible Russia links

UK impounds private jet while it probes possible Russia links
Authorities use new powers to see if billionaire Eugene Shvidler is tied to ownership

British officials were on Wednesday investigating possible links between Russian billionaire Eugene Shvidler and a private jet impounded by the authorities after it landed in the UK, as part of a further tightening of the Russian sanctions regime.

The move to prevent the jet from departing came after the UK government announced wide-ranging powers to detain any aircraft in the UK deemed to have links to Russian nationals. It also made it a criminal offence for any aircraft with Russian links to enter UK airspace.

The Department for Transport said the jet would be grounded while officials “investigate further” to establish whether it falls under the new legislation. One official said the authorities believed the aircraft was linked to Shvidler and were looking at its ownership structure.

The official said the jet could be free to depart as early as Thursday, depending on what investigators conclude. The aircraft is registered in Luxembourg and is operated by Global Jet, a private jet charter and leasing company. Global Jet did not respond to a request for comment.

The apparent toughening of UK aviation sanctions against Russia came after the government faced growing criticism over its failure to match the US and EU sanctions regimes.

The latest sanctions included a ban on any aircraft owned, chartered or operated “by anyone connected with Russia”, according to the government. Foreign secretary Liz Truss said the move would “inflict more economic pain on Russia and those close to the Kremlin.”

Shvidler is known for his close business links to Roman Abramovich, the owner of Chelsea football club. Shvidler is a non-executive director and shareholder in Evraz, the London-listed steel company controlled by Abramovich. Neither of them is subject to UK sanctions.

Shares in Evraz, whose primary listing is in London, jumped more than 30 per cent on Wednesday after the company sought to reassure investors over its exposure to sanctions.

Evraz said in a stock exchange filing that it did “not consider itself to be an entity owned by, or acting on behalf or at the direction of, any persons connected with Russia and thereby caught by such legislation”.

The filing added that the company could not be certain that key shareholders, including Abramovich, were “connected with Russia”.

Abramovich in February took direct control of his 28.6 per cent stake in Evraz, which he previously held through Greenleas International Holdings, a company registered in the British Virgin Islands.

The FT sought comment from Shvidler through Evraz, which declined to comment on “shareholder matters”.

The aircraft, a Bombardier Global Express long-range business jet, is being held at Farnborough, a private jet luxury airport south-west of London. The airport operator said the jet had flown in from New Jersey with permission from UK air traffic control and that it was in “constant dialogue” with the government to ensure sanctions were enforced.

(ZH) What's Really Driving Today's Massive Squeeze Higher?

What's Really Driving Today's Massive Squeeze Higher?

Why such a violent equity squeeze on such 'meh' Ukraine / Russia headlines?
Nomura's Charlie McElligott summarizes the long and the short of it succinctly below (Spoiler alert - Same shit, different day!)
As we’ve repeated numerous times, stocks are so deeply-immersed in Negative Gamma and critically, EXTREME “Short Delta” location for Options Dealers from all that downside hedging (after yesterday’s session, $Delta for SPX / SPY 0.2%ile, 0.0%ile for QQQ, 0.4%ile for HYG, 4.1%ile for IWM) that this means violent rallies which have to be “bot into” as Dealers cover shorts in futures.
Accordingly, McElligott has noted that any rally would have potent kindling for a short-squeeze from said “negative Delta,” as all those downside Puts are torched as we rally away from lower strikes, and the coupled “short hedges” from Dealers in futures will be bot back / covered.
Further, there too will be a SUBSTANTIAL “Vanna” support coming from rapidly softening iVol (with UX1 -5 vols from yesterday’s high), as negative Delta (shorts in futures) is too then bot back on this Dealer hedging sensitivity.
But, there is some good news in all this chaos...
Lower implied Vol will also act to see Dealer Gamma get “longer” - or said another way and critically in this case, “LESS SHORT Gamma” - which can help to further insulate us from the big intraday swings like those seen yesterday - where we had TWELVE intraday moves of at least 90bps or more!!!
Nonetheless, the Nomura strategist's medium-term view remains that as we have not yet even begun the hiking lifting nor balance-sheet runoff, rallies over the next 2-3 months (before more clarity from inflation data on the Fed path) will likely be sold into from the long-term lazy accumulators of Duration-proxy Equities (Mega-Cap Tech / Nasdaq “Growth” types, which any global Equities fund needed to overweight to outperform benchmark and take-in assets for the past 5+ years), particularly as financial conditions remains far too “easy” and Real Yields far too negative for the Fed.
As stock rallies and Dollar pullbacks act to EASE FCI—which is counterproductive for the FOMC and global CBs right now—the Fed will accordingly need to “lean into” these opportunities and use them to increase hawkish rhetoric, in order to try and get a hold of rapidly strengthening forward inflation expectations from becoming “embedded” in the minds of consumers and businesses.