FT : Glencore and BHP say methane from ‘gassy’ open-cut coal mines cannot be cap

Glencore and BHP say methane from ‘gassy’ open-cut coal mines cannot be captured
Satellite imagery suggests emissions may exceed what companies are reporting

Coal producers Glencore and BHP have said there is no way to capture methane emissions from open-cut coal mines as pressure grows from shareholders and governments to reduce emissions.

Methane is a greenhouse gas that is responsible for about 30 per cent of global warming to date, according to the UN’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.

Last year, the US and EU called on countries to join a pledge to reduce methane emissions by at least 30 per cent by 2030. Australia, the world’s second-largest coal supplier behind Indonesia, declined to join the 113 countries that signed the pledge.

Glencore told the Financial Times that unlike underground mines, there were “no practicable technologies or methods to capture fugitive methane emissions from operating open-cut coal mines”.

“As such these emissions are emitted into the atmosphere,” the company said. Glencore operates 13 open-cut coal mines and four underground mines across Australia. It said it captured some, but not all, emissions from its underground mines.

Open-cut mines, which extract coal from the surface rather than underground, account for the vast majority of BHP and Glencore’s Australian coal mines and the majority of coal mines globally, according to UK-based think-tank Ember. Coal mine methane forms in coal seams and is released during the mining process.

Open-cut mines were previously thought to emit less methane than underground mines. But recent studies by Ember and Dutch space research institute SRON found that some open-cut mines were also big methane emitters and alleged that companies were routinely under-reporting methane emissions at some mines.

SRON’s satellite imagery suggested Glencore’s Hail Creek mine in north-eastern Australia emitted 13 times more methane than the company reported in 2019.

Glencore declined to provide its own estimates for methane emissions from its Australian coal mines.

Fiona Wild, vice-president of sustainability and climate change at BHP, said it was “extremely hard” to capture methane emissions from open cut coal mines.

“A technological solution does not currently exist,” she said, comparing an open-cut mine to a dish where the emissions are widely dispersed over a large surface area, in contrast to bottlelike underground mines in which gas is funnelled up to a single small exit point and easily captured.

BHP and Ember are working with the UN to address methane emissions from metallurgical coal mining.

Sabina Assan, a coal mine methane analyst at Ember, said satellite imagery had debunked the assumption that open-cut mines emitted less methane than underground mines.

“If emissions are that high, we are going to have to develop new technology, or stop mining open-cut so intensively,” she said, adding development may have to stop altogether on the particularly “gassy” mines such as Glencore’s Hail Creek.

Ember this month reported that Australian coal mines emitted more methane than the country’s large natural gas sector, and contributed almost twice as much to global warming as the country’s cars. The International Energy Agency found in February that global methane emissions from coal mining were greater than those from either oil or gas production.

Tim Buckley, an energy analyst and director of Climate Energy Finance, said investors were becoming increasingly concerned about methane emissions.

“This is a material issue, because companies are materially and consistently underestimating their methane emissions,” he said.

The Australasian Centre for Corporate Responsibility, an activist group, last week called on Glencore to provide more accurate estimates of its methane emissions using “best practice technologies, such as satellite, aerial and on ground methane surveys”.

FT : Has the credit sell-off overshot?

Has the credit sell-off overshot?
Investors just want out of corporate bonds

The freakout in corporate bonds
No one rings a bell when the market hits a low. This is an obvious point that is very hard to internalise. I traded the first half of the 2007-09 crisis brilliantly, going to cash early on. Then I missed almost half of the ensuing bull market, thinking for years that the recovery was a false dawn. I would have done better staying invested. Lesson learned.

This time around, intelligent individuals in the start or middle of their investing lives will do better than I did then, sticking to a sensible asset allocation, averaging in, rebalancing, and holding on. Professionals, tasked with outperforming the market, will try to adjust their allocations to the cycle, but know they can’t wait for that bell to ring.

A lot of pundits are arguing that the market is unlikely to rally until the Fed changes its posture. The central bank is in tighten till-the-data-gets-better mode, and no one knows where or when that is going to be. In the absence of a reliable estimate of where interest rates are headed, fear will keep the upper hand over greed.

In stocks, furthermore, we have not seen anything resembling the thorough renunciation of risk — capitulation, in market argot — that precedes a market bottom. But are things different in bonds? Consider this chart that Michael Hartnett’s strategy team at Bank of America published late last week:

Flows out of corporate bonds have been on the order of $200bn this year, as against net inflows for equities. That does look something like capitulation. Interestingly, this is not just a rote reaction to rising rates. Here are flows out of bank loan funds, which offer floating payouts, and have therefore been widely pitched as a good fit for the current environment. The air has gone out of that theory, fast, in recent weeks:


Is there a bond panic? Well, high-yield bonds’ spreads over Treasuries don’t say so, quite. Here are spreads for the highest and lowest rungs of junk credit, going back to the financial crisis:

Lots of people are increasingly convinced we are heading into a recession, but while spreads indicate that higher default rates are on the way, they remain well lower than in 2015-16 oil price crash, when heavy defaults were expected in the oil sector (which makes up 10-15 per cent of the high yield universe). In fact, spreads were higher at times in pre-pandemic late 2018.

One gets a slightly different picture, however, from the high-yield CDX index, which tracks (imperfectly) a basket of credit default swaps, that is, insurance-like derivative contracts that pay out when bonds default. This measure of default insurance costs has risen above those 15-16 highs:

The tricky issue here is that the CDX and the cash market often trade apart, because the CDX is easier to trade. It is more liquid than many bonds and requires a limited capital commitment. Higher CDX prices may reflect a strong interest in hedging or speculating — efforts to eliminate or bet on tail risks — rather than providing a clear barometer of default expectations.

Institutional bond desks can try to arbitrage the divergence between the CDX index and the cash bond market. For investors whose options are more plain vanilla, it is harder to express the view that the credit sell-off is overdone, and the risks to taking this view are higher than they have been in a long time, because inflation changes how bond markets act.

There are two basic kinds of bond risk: rising rates, and borrower default. The first risk is unusually opaque right now, because we don’t know how much the Fed will have to raise short-term rates to control inflation (at least I don’t). And at the current moment, miserably, if rates do rise more than expected, default rates will rise too, because the higher rates will mean the Fed is tightening us right into a recession.

If you accept that you don’t know the terminal rate of this Fed rate increase cycle, you have to accept that your default rate estimates aren’t going to be much good, either. This makes me think that the headlong rush out of corporate bond funds may indicate not capitulation, but rationality.

Consider a concrete example. The iShares high-yield bond ETF is yielding 5 per cent right now. The underlying bonds have an average maturity of about five years. Two-year Treasuries, with a bit less rate risk because of their shorter maturity and no credit risk at all, yield 3.2 per cent. Is the yield difference, in the shadow of recession, worth it? It could turn out that way. But given what we know now, the gap hardly seems to overstate the risks.

FT : Global steelmakers face $518bn in stranded asset risk

Global steelmakers face $518bn in stranded asset risk
Construction of blast furnaces despite carbon pledges jeopardises investments, report finds

The global steel industry may have to write down as much as $518bn in assets over the coming years because it is still building traditional blast furnaces despite countries seeking to reduce their carbon emissions, according to a report.

Countries have continued to announce new coal-based plants while at the same time setting tougher pledges to lower emissions, according to Global Energy Monitor, an independent non-governmental organisation that tracks fossil fuel and renewable energy projects.

As a result, coal-powered blast furnaces could become unnecessary or inoperable over time, leaving the sector with stranded assets worth between $345bn and $518bn, the report estimates.

The forecasts are significantly higher than previous estimates that put the stranded asset risk for the industry at up to $70bn.

Much of the stranded asset risk is concentrated in Asia, notably China and India, where 80 per cent of the world’s new coal-based steelmaking capacity is planned. The report says 345.3mn tonnes per year of such steel production is currently proposed or under construction.

Decarbonising the production of steel, important for engineering and construction, is seen as essential to meeting global climate targets. The industry is responsible for 7-9 per cent of all direct emissions from fossil fuels, according to the World Steel Association.

Traditional blast furnaces use coking coal to melt the metal in iron ore and remove oxygen. A byproduct of this chemical reaction is carbon dioxide, while large amounts of energy are also required to heat the furnaces above 1,000C. 

Some of the world’s biggest manufacturers have launched initiatives to reduce their carbon footprint by expanding the use of electric arc furnaces, which melt down scrap steel and emit a fraction of the carbon dioxide. Many companies are also developing hydrogen and carbon capture technologies but progress remains slow and will need billions of dollars of investment.

The report goes on to warn that the global shift from traditional blast furnaces to electric arc furnaces is “too slow” and “dangerously behind decarbonisation targets” laid out in the International Energy Agency’s net zero 2050 report.

Currently 31 per cent of operating steelmaking capacity uses electric arc furnaces but only 28 per cent of capacity currently under construction will use the technology. By 2030, at least 37 per cent of steelmaking capacity should use EAF technology, and 53 per cent by 2050, according to the IEA.

“We need to move away from coal-based steelmaking, which means we need to be shutting down coal-based plants, not building new ones,” said Caitlin Swalec, research analyst at Global Energy Monitor and author of the report.

“The path to decarbonising the steel sector may be complicated, but some pieces are very clear. We need to add electric arc furnace capacity and less coal-based steelmaking.”

>>> Europe : Brokers Upgrades & Downgrades - 21st of June 2022 V2(+)

>>> Up
* Flughafen Wien Raised to Accumulate at Erste Group
* Nibe Raised to Buy at ABG; PT 90 kronor
* Pearson Raised to Buy at Deutsche Bank; PT 900 pence

>>> Down
* AB Foods Cut to Neutral at JPMorgan; PT 1,900 pence
* About You Cut to Neutral at JPMorgan; PT 22 euros
* Adidas Cut to Neutral at Oddo BHF; PT 204 euros
* Adobe Cut to Equal-Weight at Morgan Stanley; PT $362
* Asos Cut to Neutral at JPMorgan; PT 1,500 pence
* Asos Cut to Underperform at Oddo BHF; PT 900 pence
* Boohoo Cut to Neutral at JPMorgan; PT 85 pence
* Hyliion Cut to Underweight at JPMorgan
* Neste Cut to Reduce at Inderes; PT 44 euros
* Sunnova Energy Cut to Neutral at Goldman; PT $24
* SunPower Cut to Sell at Goldman; PT $13
* Terna Cut to Sell at Citi; PT 6.50 euros

>>> Initiation
* Cherry Rated New Buy at Bankhaus Metzler; PT 16 euros
* Mediclinic Rated New Hold at Berenberg; PT 464 pence
* Soltec Power Rated New Buy at Mirabaud Securities; PT 6.54 euros
* Trident Royalties Rated New Buy at Liberum; PT 65 pence

>>> Call
* Beiersdorf’s Discount to Peers Unjustified, Jefferies Says
* Cherry Rated Buy at Metzler on Product Quality, Balance Sheet (+)
* Ferrovial Rating, Ebitda Estimates Raised at Citi Ahead of 1H
* No Place to Hide in Italian Utilities, Terna Cut to Sell: Citi
* ITM Power Cut at Morgan Stanley On Longer Wait For Major Orders
* Neste Cut at Inderes; Oil Margin Gains Seen as Temporary (+)
* Spire Healthcare a Buy on NHS Boost, Mediclinic Hold: Berenberg
* Goldman Warns US Recession Risk Now Higher and More Front-Loaded
* RBC Still ‘Nervous’ About Outlook for Consumer-Staples Companies

>>> Europe : Brokers Upgrades & Downgrades - 21st of June 2022

>>> Up
* Flughafen Wien Raised to Accumulate at Erste Group
* Nibe Raised to Buy at ABG; PT 90 kronor
* Pearson Raised to Buy at Deutsche Bank; PT 900 pence

>>> Down
* AB Foods Cut to Neutral at JPMorgan; PT 1,900 pence
* About You Cut to Neutral at JPMorgan; PT 22 euros
* Adidas Cut to Neutral at Oddo BHF; PT 204 euros
* Adobe Cut to Equal-Weight at Morgan Stanley; PT $362
* Asos Cut to Neutral at JPMorgan; PT 1,500 pence
* Asos Cut to Underperform at Oddo BHF; PT 900 pence
* Boohoo Cut to Neutral at JPMorgan; PT 85 pence
* Hyliion Cut to Underweight at JPMorgan
* Neste Cut to Reduce at Inderes; PT 44 euros
* Sunnova Energy Cut to Neutral at Goldman; PT $24
* SunPower Cut to Sell at Goldman; PT $13
* Terna Cut to Sell at Citi; PT 6.50 euros

>>> Initiation
* Cherry Rated New Buy at Bankhaus Metzler; PT 16 euros
* Mediclinic Rated New Hold at Berenberg; PT 464 pence
* Soltec Power Rated New Buy at Mirabaud Securities; PT 6.54 euros
* Trident Royalties Rated New Buy at Liberum; PT 65 pence

>>> Call
* Beiersdorf’s Discount to Peers Unjustified, Jefferies Says
* Ferrovial Rating, Ebitda Estimates Raised at Citi Ahead of 1H
* No Place to Hide in Italian Utilities, Terna Cut to Sell: Citi
* ITM Power Cut at Morgan Stanley On Longer Wait For Major Orders
* Spire Healthcare a Buy on NHS Boost, Mediclinic Hold: Berenberg
* Goldman Warns US Recession Risk Now Higher and More Front-Loaded
* RBC Still ‘Nervous’ About Outlook for Consumer-Staples Companies

>>> What to look at today - 21st of June 2022

Stocks climbed in Asia on Tuesday, US equity futures pointed higher and Treasuries retreated amid steadier investor sentiment compared with last week’s rout in global shares. MSCI Inc.’s Asia-Pacific index snapped an eight-day slide to add more than 1%, with Japanese equities leading gains. China was more subdued as traders assessed the possible impact of Covid outbreaks. The drop in Treasuries took the benchmark 10-year yield to about 3.28%. Further volatility in bonds, under a Federal Reserve intent on sharp interest-rate hikes to tame inflation, could shake global markets anew. Australian yields reversed increases -- central bank Governor Philip Lowe reiterated additional interest-rate hikes are likely but pushed back on expectations of a 75 basis points move in July.  The dollar dipped and the yen hovered near a 24-year low, sapped by the contrast between a super-dovish Bank of Japan and a hawkish Fed.  But investors continue to face a parlous longer-term outlook. St. Louis Fed President James Bullard warned that US inflation expectations could “become unmoored without credible Fed action,” while former Treasury Secretary Lawrence Summers argued that the nation’s jobless rate would need to rise above 5% for a sustained period in order to curb price pressures.  crude oil gained and gold slipped. Bitcoin scaled $21,000 as cryptocurrencies got a reprieve from recent turbulence.

Nikkei +1.84% Hang Seng +1.02% CSI -0.93% Shanghai -1.02% Shenzen -1.43%

Eur$ 1.0522 CNH 6.6949 CNY 6.6953 JPY 135.09 GBP 1.2266 CHF 0.9669 RUB 56.1450 TRY 17.3175 WTI$ 111.52 Gold 1835.30 BTC 21,030 +2.96% ETH +3.05%

S&P +1.31% NAsdaq +1.34% EuroStoxx +0.43% FTSE +0.26% Dax +0.43% SMI +0.48%

Macro :
- Corporate Distress in Europe Hits Highest Since August 2020
- Goldman Warns US Recession Risk Now Higher and More Front-Loaded
- Switzerland May Watch Exports Rose 13.6% Y/Y
- Macro Hedge Funds Are Enjoying a Slew of Catalysts in June

Keep an eye on :
- AED BB : Aedifica Buys Care Home in Scotland for £8.5M at About 6% Yield
- AIR FP : EasyJet to Buy 56 Airbus A320neo Family Aircraft
- AZN LN : Astra, Ionis to File Eplontersen in US in 2022 on Interim Data
- ATEA NO : Atea Buys IT Consulting Operations in Southern, Western Sweden
- INTRUM SS : European Firms Fear Wage Demands Over Supply Costs, Intrum Says
- LDO IM : Leonardo DRS and RADA Agree to All-Stock Merger: M&A Snapshot
- LHA GY : Lufthansa CEO Wrote to Draghi to Speed Up ITA Sale: Corriere
- OCDO LN : Ocado Places 72.3m Shares at £7.95 Each to Raise £575m
- RI FP : Pernod to Sell Tormore Brand to Elixir Distillers; No Terms
- RNO FP : Renault, Minth Group to Produce Battery Casings for EVs
- SCHP SW : Schindler Commits to Full-Scope Net-Zero Emissions by 2040
- TEP LN : Telecom Plus FY Adjusted Pretax Profit GBP61.9M Vs. GBP56.1M Y/y
- WG/ LN : Wood Group Says Ken Gilmartin Will Succeed Robin Watson as CEO

>>> Stoxx 600 Pre-Market Indications

  • Ryanair (RY4C TH) +2.5%
    • Ryanair Sees Some Relief as British Pilots Accept Pay Deal
  • Rio Tinto (RIO1 TH) +1.8%
    • Over-Optimism Among China Steel-Makers Behind Iron Ore’s Plunge
  • TUI (TUI1 TH) +1.4%
  • K+S (SDF TH) +1.3%
  • Qiagen (QIA TH) +1.3%
  • BP (BPE5 TH) +1.1%
  • Thyssenkrupp (TKA TH) +1.1%
  • Coloplast (CBHD TH) +1%
  • Kion (KGX TH) +1%
  • Freenet (FNTN TH) -0.4%
    • 1&1 Network Threat Varies, O2 Looks Most Exposed, Freenet Least
  • Unilever (UNVB TH) -0.5%

>>> TradeGate Pre-Market Indications

DAX:
  • Qiagen (QIA TH) +2.5%
  • Zalando (ZAL TH) +1.5%
  • HeidelbergCement (HEI TH) +1.3%
  • Airbus (AIR TH) +1.2%
    • EasyJet to Buy 56 Airbus A320neo Family Aircraft
  • Infineon (IFX TH) +1.1%
MDAX:
  • Aroundtown (AT1 TH) +2%
  • Thyssenkrupp (TKA TH) +1.8%
  • K+S (SDF TH) +1.3%
  • TeamViewer (TMV TH) +1.2%
  • Cancom (COK TH) +1%
  • Siemens Energy (ENR TH) -0.5%
SDAX:
  • Ceconomy (CEC TH) +2.3%
  • SAF-Holland SE (SFQ TH) +2.1%
    • Franklin Intl Small Cap Growth Adds Befesa, Exits Metrovacesa
  • Heidelberger Druck (HDD TH) +1.9%
  • DIC Asset (DIC TH) +1.7%
  • Deutsche PBB (PBB TH) +1.6%
  • flatexDEGIRO (FTK TH) +1.3%
  • VERBIO Vereinigte (VBK TH) +1.3%

FT : Roman Abramovich ally Bruce Buck stands down as Chelsea FC chair after two

Roman Abramovich ally Bruce Buck stands down as Chelsea FC chair after two decades
US lawyer will remain as special adviser to club’s new owners following last month’s £2.5bn sale

Bruce Buck, one of Roman Abramovich’s closest confidants, is stepping down as chair of Chelsea Football Club following the £2.5bn sale of the English Premier League side.

Buck, 76, would leave the role at the end of June, Chelsea said on Monday, although he would remain a senior adviser to the club’s new owners.

The US lawyer was critical to the Russian oligarch’s 2003 takeover of Chelsea and the club’s subsequent transformation into one of the top teams in European football.

The Financial Times reported in May that Buck and fellow director Marina Granovskaia had been offered the opportunity to remain in place following last month’s sale to a consortium led by US financier Todd Boehly and investment firm Clearlake Capital.

However, that plan drew a rebuke from UK Conservative MP Julian Knight, chair of the digital, culture, media and sport committee in the House of Commons.

“Any continuity with the Abramovich regime at Chelsea is certainly an unsettling development,” he said at the time.

Buck said on Monday that “now is the right time to step down and let new ownership build on the strong foundations we have in place”.

“The owners have a compelling vision for Chelsea’s future, and I look forward to helping them achieve it in this new role.”

Buck became chair of Chelsea soon after advising Abramovich on his £140mn takeover in 2003.

His history with Abramovich goes back to the 1990s. After relocating from the US, Buck was responsible for growing the European operations of US law firm Skadden Arps, Slate, Meagher & Flom. He retired from Skadden’s London office in 2014.

Skadden advised Russian oil company Sibneft when it was under Abramovich’s control. Abramovich sold his stake in Sibneft for $13bn to Russian state energy group Gazprom in 2005.

Buck played a vital role in last month’s sale of Chelsea. The UK placed Abramovich under sanctions following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, and the club was only able to continue operating thanks to a special licence granted by the government.

Boehly, co-owner of the Los Angeles Dodgers baseball team, and Clearlake acquired Chelsea for £2.5bn and also committed a further £1.75bn to invest in the club over the next decade, meeting strict conditions set by Abramovich and his negotiators.

Buck once rejected the label of “Abramovich’s right-hand man” and instead described himself as “the little-toe-on-the-left-foot man”.