>>> What to look at today - 11th of October 2022

Shares declined in Asia following a fourth straight drop in US equities amid persistent concern that rising interest rates and geopolitical threats will crimp global growth. Stocks slumped in Japan, South Korea and Taiwan, led by chipmakers, as trading resumed after holidays in the wake of fresh curbs on China’s access to US technology. Shares in Hong Kong extended declines. US futures fell. A measure of dollar strength held near the highest this month and the yen traded within sight of the original level that spurred Japanese authorities to defend the currency in September.  Yield on the 30-year Treasury rose to the highest since 2014 as trading in US government bonds resumed following a break for Columbus Day. The 10-year yield climbed 10 basis points to 3.98%. Investors parsed comments from Federal Reserve officials for any signs of a let up in the central bank’s hawkish stance. Vice Chair Lael Brainard laid out a case for caution, noting that previous rate increases were still working through the economy. Chicago Fed President Charles Evans said he wants to quickly get to a point where policy makers can feel comfortable pausing in order to reduce the risk of overshooting. 
The mood remains fragile ahead of Thursday’s US inflation data, with the case for another 75 basis-point rate hike likely to be strong if the data comes in hotter-than-expected.  Russian President Vladimir Putin threatened further missile attacks on Ukraine after hitting Kyiv and other cities in the most intense barrage of strikes since the first days of its invasion, marking a dangerous new escalation in the war. US After Hours Quiet after hours; LEG -8.2% on reduced FY22 EPS and sales outlook; ZS -3.6% on its President resigning.

Nikkei -2,34% Hang Seng -1,36% CSI+0,16% Shanghai +0,01% Shnzen +0,33%

Eur$ 0,9684 CNH 7,1881 CNY 7,1884 JPY 145,81 GBP 1,1035 CHF 1,0008 RUB 63,2805 TRY 18,6331 WTI$ 90,54 -0,50% Gold 1,664,4 -0,25% BTC 19,040 -1,2% ETH 1,275

S&P -0,54% Nasdaq -0,51% EuroStoxx -0,51% FTSE -0,54% Dax -0,43% SMI -0,13%

Macro :
- Israel Says Closing in on Deal With Lebanon Over Sea Border
- Goldman Sachs Says Too Early to Factor a Fed Pivot Into Markets
- PBOC’s New Helicopter Money Isn’t Policy Panacea: China Today
- Portugal to Start Taxing Crypto Gains in Next Year’s Budget Plan
- Brainard Says Fed Monitoring Liquidity Which Is a Little Fragile
- Insurers Pay $100 Billion in Climate-Change Weather Claims

Keep an eye on :
- YOU GY : About You Maintains FY Adjusted Ebitda Loss Forecast
- AB FP : AB Science Gets First Authorizations for Phase 3 for Masitinib
- AIR FP : Airbus Delivered 55 Jets in September, Making 2022 Target Tough
- AZN LN : AstraZeneca Nasal Spray Vaccine for Covid Fizzles in Early Trial
- AR4 GY : Aurelius Sells Ex-Bayer CropScience Unit to Safex for ~EU83M
- BMPS IM : Paschi to Proceed With €2.5 Billion Share Sale as Planned
- DEN US : Exxon Is Said to Weigh Takeover of Denbury
- DUST SS : Dustin CEO Thomas Ekman to Step Down in 2023
- FAST NA : Fastned 3Q Revenue Related to Charging EU10.1M
- GIVN SW : Givaudan 3Q Sales Meets Estimates
- LDO IM : Leonardo Gets $579 Million Contract for Thermal Weapon Sights
- BOLS NA : Lucas Bols, De Kuyper to Sell Avandis JV to Refresco for €25M
- NDX1 GY : Nordex Got New Order From Ignitis for 137 MW Wind Farm in Poland
- PHARM NA : Pharming Submits Pipeline Hope Leniolisib to EU Regulator
- REP SM : Repsol 3Q Refining Margin $12.7/Bbl vs $3.2 Year Earlier
- SKAB SS : Skanska to Improve Subway Stations in New York for SEK1.5b
- SOLB BB : Solvay, Hastings Sign Supply MOU for Mixed Rare Earth Carbonate
- TIT IM : Italy, Macquarie Need More Time For Telecom Italia Network Bid
- TWTR US : Musk Sued by Twitter Investor Over ‘Fraudulent’ Buyout Flip-Flop
- TWTR US : Market Sees a 60% Chance Twitter Deal Makes Deadline, Cowen Says
- TWTR US : Sequoia Capital, Binance Stand by Funding Musk Deal: Information
- VAR NO : Var Cuts 2022 Production Guidance to 220,000 to 225,000 BOE/Day
- VTWR GY : Brookfield, DigitalBridge Said to Weigh Bid for Stake in Vantage
- WBD IM : Pre-Covid Construction Contracts Are Unworkable, Webuild Says

FT : Berlin prosecutors pursue Lars Windhorst probe over alleged illegal banking

Berlin prosecutors pursue Lars Windhorst probe over alleged illegal banking activities
Investigation ongoing a year after German financier said matter had been resolved

Berlin prosecutors are pursuing a criminal investigation into Lars Windhorst almost a year after the German financier and football investor claimed to have settled “pending legal disputes” over the matter.

The prosecutors have been investigating potential breaches of the German banking act after a criminal complaint filed by Germany’s financial watchdog BaFin.

BaFin was concerned the 45-year-old may have engaged in banking activities without the required licences, a criminal act under German law carrying a potential punishment of up to five years in prison.

Windhorst tweeted last November that he had repaid €132.5mn in loans that he said “BaFin believes would have required a licence under the German Banking Act”, adding that “the repayment settles the pending legal disputes” with the regulator.

However, public prosecutors in Berlin told the Financial Times that “the investigation is ongoing and a conclusion of the matter is currently not yet in sight”.

BaFin declined to comment other than to say Windhorst “ran a deposit-taking business without the necessary regulatory approval” and unwound the operations at its behest.

A spokesperson for Windhorst told the FT that “BaFin notified us in writing that the probe against Lars Windhorst has been finished and the case has been concluded”.

Asked about the criminal investigation, which is separate from BaFin’s probe, the spokesperson said it would “also eventually be closed” as a consequence of the settlement with BaFin.

A person familiar with the investigation told the FT that this was “wishful thinking”, adding: “The criminal investigation is independent, open-minded and ongoing.”

The legal woes were triggered by the activities of Windhorst’s investment vehicle Evergreen Funding, according to people familiar with the matter. Evergreen was set up to buy back bonds from H2O, a €12bn French investment firm that poured client money into illiquid securities linked to Windhorst. French regulators later froze a series of funds at H2O over “valuation uncertainties” on their bond holdings.

In June 2020 Evergreen issued a €1.25bn bond, offering investors a hefty 12.5 per cent annual interest rate. The Luxembourg-based vehicle’s annual accounts for 2020 show it provided high-interest rate loans worth €272mn to Windhorst and held just €263.5mn of bonds on its balance sheet.

BaFin subsequently froze Evergreen’s bank account in Germany and notified criminal prosecutors in Berlin, where Windhorst’s holding company Tennor has offices.

A spokesperson for Windhorst said last year that the company was “absolutely certain” that all the BaFin allegations over potential illegal banking activities were without merit.

Windhorst has returned to the public eye in recent weeks after a public fallout with the management of Bundesliga football club Hertha Berlin, in which he owns a majority stake. The club has launched an investigation into allegations first reported by the Financial Times that he had hired corporate spies to try to force out the club’s president.

>>> US Close Dow -0,32% S&P -0,75% Nasdaq -1,04% Russell -0,60% VIX 32,45 +3,48

Closing Stock Market Summary

It was another weak session for the stock market. The major indices opened to modest gains before sizable losses in mega cap and semiconductor stocks dragged the market into negative territory. Some concerning remarks from JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon coincided with the market falling to session lows while remarks from Fed Vice Chair Brainard coincided with the market climbing off those levels.

According to CNBC, Mr. Dimon said he expects the U.S. to enter a recession in 6-9 months, adding that he thinks the S&P 500 could easily fall another 20%.

Fed Vice Chair Brainard said later today in a speech that, "...moving forward deliberately and in a data-dependent manner will enable us to learn how economic activity, employment, and inflation are adjusting to cumulative tightening in order to inform our assessments of the path of the policy rate." Market participants seemingly liked the idea that this could be a bit of a carrot from a Fed official implying that the pace of rate hikes could eventually moderate. Stocks moved off their lows following these remarks.

Mega cap stocks underperformed, as evidenced by the Vanguard Mega Cap Growth ETF (MGK) closing down 1.1% versus a 0.8% loss in the S&P 500. Apple (AAPL 140.42, +0.33, +0.2%) for its part started the session on a weaker note (down 1.1% at today's low) before exhibiting a turnaround in price action that helped boost the broader market off session lows. 

Semiconductor stocks were a weak spot today. They continued to suffer following last week's revenue warning from Advanced Micro Devices (AMD 57.81, -0.63, -1.1%) and news of the U.S. imposing new export controls that are intended to degrade China's ability to manufacture advanced military systems, according to CNBC. The PHLX Semiconductor Index closed down 3.5%.

Falling oil prices weighed on the S&P 500 energy sector (-2.1%), which closed in last place on the day after surging 13.7% last week. WTI crude oil futures fell 1.7% to $90.92/bbl. Natural gas futures fell 4.3% to $6.46/mmbtu.

On the flip side, industrials (+0.3%) sat atop the leaderboard with a slim gain. 

The Treasury market was closed today in observance of Columbus Day/Indigenous Peoples' Day. Still, with the 10-yr UK gilt yield spiking above 4.50% today, leaving it well above the 4.32% yield it sported when the Bank of England announced an emergency gilt purchase plan on September 28, one can make a case that interest rate jitters were a part of today's trading mix.

There was no U.S. economic data of note today. Participants are in wait-and-see mode ahead of the FOMC Minutes for the September meeting and key PPI and CPI reports later this week.

Looking ahead to Tuesday, economic data is limited to the September NFIB Small Business Optimism reading (prior 91.8) at 6:00 a.m. ET.

Dow Jones Industrial Average: -19.6% YTD
S&P Midcap 400: -20.4% YTD
S&P 500: -24.2% YTD
Russell 2000: -24.7% YTD
Nasdaq Composite: -32.6% YTD

>>> US After Hours Summary: Quiet after hours; LEG -8.2% on reduced FY22 EPS and

After Hours Summary: Quiet after hours; LEG -8.2% on reduced FY22 EPS and sales outlook; ZS -3.6% on its President resigning

After Hours Gainers:

Companies trading higher in after hours in reaction to earnings/guidance: AGNC +0.7% (prelim Q3 guidance for certain metrics)

Companies trading higher in after hours in reaction to news: ANDE +3.9% (to purchase Mote Farm Service), NDAQ +2.3% (reports September 2022 volumes), ANGI +1.4% (CEO steps down; appoints new CEO), REPX +0.6% (increases dividend)

After Hours Losers:

Companies trading lower in after hours in reaction to earnings/guidance: LEG -8.2% (lowers FY22 outlook)

Companies trading lower in after hours in reaction to news: RIGL -11.4% (not expected to file sNDA; reducing workforce), ZS -3.6% (President resigning), BKD -0.6% (reports September 2022 occupancy), AMK -0.1% (issues September AMK report)

FT : Why the untangling of global supply chains isn’t good news

Why the untangling of global supply chains isn’t good news
An anticipated slump in demand is undoing the worldwide cargo congestion of the past two years

Dark days in the economic ecosystem
First, a slight diversion. We shouldn’t really call them “supply chains”. It’s a more accurate reflection of the flexible, multi-stranded nature of the global goods trading system to use the less snappy (hence my not using it in the headline) “supply networks” or the even unsnappier “supply ecosystems”. A chain is useless as soon as its weakest link breaks, but networks and ecosystems find ways to compensate when one branch or node is ruptured. The enormously important context for the logistics crisis is that the extraordinary increase in shipping delays and freight rates since late 2020 didn’t actually stop a pretty healthy recovery in world trade and economic growth after the initial blow of the pandemic.

That pedantic exercise in terminological exactitude out of the way, let’s get on with the show. It’s now clear the crunch is rapidly uncrunching. Freight rates and waiting times at ports are dropping rapidly. The US logistics managers’ index shows spare transportation capacity shooting up and prices falling. The New York Fed measure of global supply chain pressure, which weights together delivery times, backlogs and inventories, is back down to levels last seen at the end of 2020.


Inflation remains high, but the Institute of International Finance, whose chart of delivery times and costs is below, calculates that it’s now driven by the energy shock from the Ukraine war rather than the cost of supply disruption.


As supply ecosystems malfunctioned last year, explanations fell into two basic camps. I was in Team Transitory Demand Effect, which argued it reflected mainly the huge resurgence of consumption and particularly consumer durables (e-bikes rather than food delivery) after lockdowns lifted, putting pressure particularly on the inefficient ports on the US West Coast. The other gang was Team Deep-Seated Supply Problems, who were all about the crisis in globalisation and geopolitics and fragile supply networks and underpriced risks of offshoring and what have you. A bit of a simplification, but that’s how the sides lined up.

Well, not to declare ultimate victory, but the demand explanation is surely the most likely for what’s changing right now. There’s a lot of gloom about a global recession ahead, which if history is a guide will hit goods trade particularly hard. By contrast the supply side hasn’t notably improved: geopolitics and certainty about the robustness of supply networks isn’t all rainbows and kittens. And I can’t find anyone who thinks the Port of Los Angeles and associated trucking services have suddenly perked up.

Jennifer Bisceglie, chief executive of the supply chain consultancy Interos, says it’s about buying behaviour. “First, consumers don’t need the same hard goods: they’re back to doing travel, they’re back to buying services. The second is there’s so much uncertainty in the economy and there’s inflation. The third is that companies are sitting on inventory and so there isn’t the same throughput.” 

As for the idea that the reduction in congestion reflects a sudden increase in capacity or efficiency, Bisceglie says: “If after three years you’re waiting for a big bang change in supply chains based on the pandemic, I think it’s already happened.”

Not all the data points line up. Flexport, the freight forwarding company that monitors these things, points out that relative consumer durables demand is still high.


But those figures are from past months. Forward-looking indicators, especially in container shipping, are looking pretty grim: orders are dropping and the number of “blank sailings”, where carriers cancel trips, is rising. The World Trade Organization is forecasting a big slowdown in trade next year.

Phil Levy, chief economist at Flexport, posits there’s a non-linear relationship: “It’s quite possible you can get some big impacts on supply chain congestion with a relatively small reduction in volumes, the same way that a freeway that’s 90 per cent full might be moving quite well but one that’s 99 per cent full is at gridlock.”

Now, of course I’ve slightly caricatured and given a stark either-or framing of the different explanations, particularly for expository convenience and partly to make myself seem cleverer. Clearly there are some supply-side problems — the Covid-related port and trucking shutdowns in China being one of them — which made the demand-driven congestion and shipping costs worse and which have somewhat been resolved. Changes aren’t the same as levels: if what we’re seeing is a serious downturn, there might still be some congestion problems when demand returns to long-term trend. There could well also be some big structural changes going on in patterns of sourcing and supply networks that have yet to work themselves out, particularly since the geopolitical situation can always get a lot worse.

However, if you’re looking for an explanation for the past couple of years of high costs and choking congestion, the demand one is most likely. It’s a shame it needs the prospect of a big slowdown to prove it — I’d rather have growth with snarled-up ports than a recession with plain sailing — but that’s the way things are.

FT : Renewables companies warn UK revenue cap could deter investment

Renewables companies warn UK revenue cap could deter investment
Level should closely mirror EU to avoid exodus to Europe, say energy groups

Renewable energy companies will tell UK ministers this week that a planned cap on the revenues they generate from sky-high wholesale power prices must not be more punitive than a similar EU policy — or they risk an investment exodus to Europe.

The UK government is drawing up plans for a temporary revenue cap, similar to one already outlined by the EU as part of efforts to lower wholesale energy prices, which closely track those of gas and have surged since Russia’s full-blown invasion of Ukraine. Legislation, which would be needed to institute a cap, is expected as early as this week.

Energy industry officials involved in discussions with the UK government say negotiations over the level of a cap will continue this week. The proposals could affect companies including EDF Energy, RWE, Octopus Energy, ScottishPower and SSE.

Shares in UK-listed low carbon electricity generating companies fell on Monday morning after the Financial Times revealed over weekend that the UK government was planning to impose a cap. SSE’s shares dropped more than 3 per cent in early trading, although they subsequently reduced their losses.

Shares in Greencoat UK wind, a big investor in renewables projects, were down more than 8 per cent by mid-morning. Shares in Centrica took a hit too, trading more than 4 per cent lower at one stage, as analysts feared the proposals would also affect nuclear generators.

Renewable energy companies warn that a UK revenue cap must not be set so low that it stifles investment in low-carbon technologies such as wind and solar, which will be needed to reach the country’s 2050 net zero emissions target.

“It should at least be closely aligned with [that of] the EU,” said one person with knowledge of the discussions. Otherwise, ministers risked “spooking investors” and sending a signal that Britain was a more hostile location to invest in than continental Europe, the person added.

Another person involved in the discussions added that not all companies “would care about the cap if it was at a [relatively] high price”.

Under the EU’s plans, non-gas generators have to pay member states the “excess profits” they generate beyond a threshold of €180 per megawatt hour.

Energy companies say the UK government’s proposals effectively amount to a windfall tax — something prime minister Liz Truss has said she is ideologically opposed to, even though she has maintained an additional 25 per cent “energy profits levy” on oil and gas producers introduced by the former chancellor Rishi Sunak in May.

Owners of low-carbon schemes such as onshore wind and solar farms have made particularly big profits from the spike in electricity prices since Russia launched its war in Ukraine because they receive state subsidies on top of wholesale rates under a legacy “renewables obligation certificates” scheme that dates back two decades.

Newer technologies such as offshore wind are governed by a different system known as “contracts for difference” that already limits the price they receive for their output, although agreements cover less than 20 per cent of total renewables capacity in Britain.

In a meeting between the UK government and electricity generators at the end of September, officials said they had been considering numerous possible benchmarks for setting a price cap, such as wholesale power prices before the energy crisis.

A price of £50-£60 per megawatt hour was mentioned as a starting point for negotiations although officials have since privately indicated that the final price would be substantially higher. No final decision on the level of the cap has been taken.

The cap is likely to be imposed through energy legislation set to be published as early as this week which will also underpin Truss’s £30bn support scheme to help businesses with energy bills for the next six months.

WSJ : In Hong Kong, Sanctioned Russian Tycoon’s Superyacht Sparks U.S.-China Spa

In Hong Kong, Sanctioned Russian Tycoon’s Superyacht Sparks U.S.-China Spat
The vessel, owned by Alexey Mordashov, prompts U.S. State Department to caution against the use of city as a ‘safe haven’

The anchoring in Hong Kong waters of a sanctioned Russian oligarch’s superyacht is ramping up tensions between Beijing and Washington, which warned against the financial center being used as a safe haven.

The 465-foot Nord, owned by steel magnate Alexey Mordashov, moored west of the Chinese territory’s Victoria Harbour last week after departing from the far-eastern Russian city of Vladivostok, according to website MarineTraffic.

Its presence has drawn onlookers in passing boats eager to snap photos of one the world’s biggest luxury vessels. Equipped with two helicopter pads, a cinema and swimming pool, it can be seen flying a Russian flag. It has also ignited a spat between U.S. and Chinese officials, already at loggerheads over Beijing’s crackdowns on freedoms in the former British colony.

Multinational companies, apprehensive about Hong Kong’s future as the best place to do business in China and beyond, have been pulling up stakes following political upheaval, tight Covid restrictions and the passage of a controversial national security law.

Mr. Mordashov—one of Russia’s richest men and the largest shareholder of Severstal PAO, among the world’s biggest steelmakers—has a net worth of $18.5 billion, according to the Bloomberg Billionaires Index.

He was sanctioned by the U.S., the European Union and the U.K. in the wake of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Italian authorities in March seized another of Mr. Mordashov’s yachts, the 213-foot Lady M. France and Italy, in sometimes dramatic operations, have seized a handful of vessels that they say belong to sanctioned individuals.

A Severstal spokeswoman said that Mr. Mordashov is in Moscow and declined further comment.

Western governments hope that the barrage of sanctions against Russian tycoons such as Mr. Mordashov might pressure Russian leader Vladimir Putin into ending the war.

China, under President Xi Jinping, and Russia, under Mr. Putin, grew closer when the conflict started. On Feb. 4, the two declared a friendship with “no limits.”

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has nonetheless forced Beijing to walk a diplomatic tightrope, honoring its commitment to Russia without allowing its ties with the West to collapse.

“If the Nord were to stay in the area for an extended period, I would be inclined to assume that its purpose is to test the continuing friendship between Russia and China,” said James D. Fry, an associate professor of law at the University of Hong Kong.

The U.S. and China may be discussing behind closed doors the Nord’s presence in Hong Kong, though the U.S.’s legal position is unclear without further details on its stance, he said.

Should Hong Kong and the mainland government not support Western calls for cooperation, “Russian oligarchs may see this as a sign that Hong Kong might be a ‘safe haven’ for them and their assets,” Mr. Fry said. The city’s policies could change over time, he added.

WSJ : How a New Anti-Woke Bank Stumbled

How a New Anti-Woke Bank Stumbled
GloriFi CEO Toby Neugebauer won over A-list investors to build a bank for people who consider Wall Street too liberal. Within months it was nearly bankrupt.

An A-list group of financial backers including Ken Griffin and Peter Thiel gave Toby Neugebauer tens of millions of dollars to build a new kind of bank—one aimed at people who see Wall Street as too liberal.

The potential customer base was huge, Mr. Neugebauer and his business partner, former Mike Pence chief of staff Nick Ayers, told the investors. Plumbers, electricians and police officers, the pitch went, are fed up with big banks that don’t share their values.

The startup, called GloriFi, initially aimed to launch with bank accounts, credit cards, mortgages and insurance, while touting what it called pro-America values such as capitalism, family, law enforcement and the freedom to “celebrate your love of God and country.”

Within months, the investors’ money was nearly gone, and GloriFi was on the verge of bankruptcy. It missed launch dates, blaming faulty technology and failures by vendors, and laid off dozens of employees. It stumbled with products; for instance, a plan to make a credit card out of the same material used for shell casings failed when the company realized the material could interfere with security chips and potentially be too thick for payment terminals, according to people familiar with the matter.

Some employees alleged that Mr. Neugebauer had a volatile temper and drank on the job, and the company’s unusual workspace—Mr. Neugebauer’s home—added distractions.

After months of disarray, Mr. Ayers, who didn’t have a managerial role, and some top investors unsuccessfully pushed for Mr. Neugebauer’s ouster as chief executive, according to people familiar with the matter.

Mr. Neugebauer said no investors asked him to resign, saying he had “nothing but support.” Of the criticism of his alleged drinking, he said, “The attacks on what I do in my home after 5 p.m. are beneath” The Wall Street Journal.

“Our 84 co-founders and our great partners stick by our accomplishments,” Mr. Neugebauer said.

GloriFi’s app did make its debut in September. The company said customers can open checking and savings accounts and apply for credit cards. It said it is continuing to work on plans to offer mortgages, brokerage accounts and insurance, and is focused on optimizing shareholder value.

Ideological spending
Earlier, in an August interview, Mr. Neugebauer said he remains convinced that GloriFi is the right idea for the right time.

He said he had put $10 million of his own private-equity fortune into the company to keep it afloat this spring. He is planning to take the company public through a merger with a special-purpose acquisition company, which requires him to raise at least $60 million in additional cash. The pending deal has several conditions GloriFi and the SPAC have yet to meet.

GloriFi defined itself in contrast to many big, established banks, including Bank of America Corp., JPMorgan Chase & Co. and Citigroup Inc., which have in recent years pledged to consider environmental, social and governance, or ESG, principles in their businesses. Some lenders have cut ties with some corporate clients in the gun, coal and private prison industries.

Mr. Neugebauer said many Americans have come to believe big banks have moved too far left, and that customers want a bank that reflects their conservative values. “It is about my friends that played football at ‘Friday Night Lights.’ And they don’t feel loved. They don’t feel respected,” he said.

Politicians in West Virginia and Texas have penalized some Wall Street firms for their ESG policies, saying they effectively boycott fossil-fuel companies. Florida this summer banned the consideration of ESG factors in state pension investments, and the governor proposed legislation to prevent banks from discriminating against customers for their political or social beliefs.

GloriFi said its customers can earn rewards that they will soon be able to donate to a charity for veterans and first-responders. A homeowners insurance policy that gives discounts to gun owners is in planning stages, the company said. Its website, adorned with flags, blue-collar workers and families, urges customers to “put your money where your values are.”

But before GloriFi’s vision of a conservative banking network could be tested in the marketplace, management missteps and tensions with its investors stalled the company’s rollout.

Messrs. Neugebauer and Ayers began to canvass investors last year. The pair lacked much experience in banking or technology. Mr. Neugebauer, the son of a former Texas congressman, co-founded a private-equity firm that invested in oil-and-gas companies. Mr. Ayers was a longtime political operative.

They promised GloriFi would offer a range of services through a smartphone app that beat the technology of big banks, and planned to bring in customers through ads on Fox News and internet influencers.

The mission appealed to Mr. Thiel’s Founders Fund, which focuses on investing in transformational companies such as SpaceX. Other investors included Mr. Griffin, the founder and chief executive of hedge fund Citadel; Joe Lonsdale, co-founder of data-mining company Palantir Technologies Inc.; former Georgia Republican Sen. Kelly Loeffler; and Atlanta healthcare entrepreneur Rick Jackson. GloriFi raised about $50 million.

An April 1, 2022, launch date was set, an ambitious timeline for a company in a highly regulated business requiring numerous licenses and a network of back-office systems.

The startup spent millions on lawyers, consultants and vendors in an effort to meet the deadline. In a few months it hired more than 100 employees. It had hoped to double employees by May, according to status reports from early 2022.

An affiliate of GloriFi owned by Mr. Neugebauer and his wife, Melissa Neugebauer, applied to buy a small bank in late 2021. The deal is awaiting regulatory approval.

Without its own bank, GloriFi established partnerships to offer checking and savings accounts and credit cards through TransPecos Financial Corp., a Texas banking group, and Evolve Bancorp Inc., a Tennessee bank.

GloriFi would be a “digital marketing and analytics platform,” which would offer products from the bank the Neugebauers hoped to own, according to the purchase application submitted to the Federal Reserve.

The company laid plans for a multimedia marketing blitz around the launch, according to internal planning documents reviewed by the Journal. “I’ll protect what’s mine,” read a proposed print ad for the gun owners’ homeowners insurance discount. One video ad featured a Ronald Reagan speech.

Candace Owens, a conservative commentator with millions of followers on social media, agreed to be a public face of the brand, and promoted it in a video appearance at a Conservative Political Action Conference event in August.

“I very much believe in GloriFi and view it to be the first true mark of what I perceive to be a competitive, conservative economy that is forming,” Ms. Owens said in an email to the Journal.

GloriFi’s political connections were apparent. Mr. Pence made a supportive appearance on an all-staff call. Texas Gov. Greg Abbott visited Mr. Neugebauer’s home. Texas Republican Sen. Ted Cruz shared a video sponsored by GloriFi on the Fourth of July on Twitter. Mr. Neugebauer, who says he is a libertarian, donated $10 million to a super PAC backing Mr. Cruz’s 2016 presidential bid.

Home as headquarters
Mr. Neugebauer’s 16,000-square-foot Dallas home, modeled after the White House, became the company’s initial headquarters. Desks dotted the property’s palatial common areas. Employees who didn’t live in Dallas would often stay in guest bedrooms, where they could sometimes hear Mr. Neugebauer pacing the halls during his 17-hour workdays, according to former employees.

Vendors told GloriFi they required security protocols and couldn’t send consumers’ sensitive financial information to a company based in someone’s home, people familiar with the matter said. GloriFi rented an office nearby, but Mr. Neugebauer’s inner circle continued to work from his house.

The company said Mr. Neugebauer used the house because he wanted his executive leadership team to collaborate closely.

Some employees said they found the experience of building a company from scratch thrilling. Mr. Neugebauer, these employees said, was a hard-charging, charismatic founder, not unlike the ones behind the startups that dominate today’s tech world. “He’s got this vision…It’s almost like drinking really good Kool-Aid,” Manny Rios, then head of GloriFi’s insurance operations, said in an internal video filmed in April. “I count Toby as Steve Jobs 2.0.”

But staffers began complaining about what they said were Mr. Neugebauer’s volatile behavior and drinking habits, according to people familiar with the matter and a memo from Britt Amos, GloriFi’s former head of human resources, reviewed by the Journal. Ms. Amos left in the spring after clashing with Mr. Neugebauer, and she recounted issues she saw as problems in the memo.

“Several people working at the mansion told me to make sure I leave around six,” Ms. Amos wrote in the memo. “When I inquired why, they stated that after 5 p.m. Toby starts drinking and things at the house deteriorate quickly.”

On March 1, Mr. Neugebauer yelled at a top bank lieutenant over a potential snag in a plan for credit cards, according to the memo. A late meeting followed where the CEO was “visibly drunk…drinking Red Bull and putting alcohol in it,” wrote Ms. Amos, who was in the house at the time.

Bill Conroy, the bank lieutenant mentioned in the memo, said he was an overnight guest at the Neugebauers’ Dallas house four nights a week for months. He said Ms. Amos didn’t spend enough time there to have a good understanding of the company’s culture.

“We fight all the time over whether we are hitting our milestones,” Mr. Conroy said in an interview. “I don’t think it’s inappropriate. If I did, I wouldn’t work here.”

GloriFi’s current head of human resources said there have been no employee complaints since June.

Staffers at software company Unqork Inc., which was helping build GloriFi’s insurance product, attended an April video call where a GloriFi senior manager “launched into a rude and aggressive tirade” at Unqork’s team and his own GloriFi team, according to a partially redacted lawsuit the vendor filed in New York in September against GloriFi alleging a breach of its contract.

Unqork argued in the suit that GloriFi stopped making payments even though the vendor lived up to its obligations despite internal dysfunction at the startup, and that delays in the product were caused by GloriFi’s failure to meet its own deadlines.

After appearing to leave the call, the senior manager later returned on camera “in a state of undress, on a bed with a companion who was similarly in a state of undress,” the lawsuit alleged. The senior manager isn’t named in the suit.

“No said incident or allegation was ever shared with HR or leadership,” Mr. Neugebauer said.

Clash with investors
By the end of March, Mr. Neugebauer was telling investors GloriFi was out of cash. “You guys are moving very fast and loose and are taking your investors for granted,” Mr. Jackson, the investor, wrote in a March 28 email to Mr. Neugebauer. He didn’t understand why the company needed more money, the email said.

“I think you are trying to go into too many areas all at once, and it is impairing your execution,” he wrote.

Mr. Ayers and some other GloriFi investors wanted Mr. Neugebauer, who had voting control of the company, to step aside as CEO, according to people familiar with the matter, and pushed for it from late 2021 through this spring. The company’s big-name backers, including Mr. Thiel’s Founders Fund and Mr. Griffin, declined to give the company more money.

Mr. Neugebauer told investors around this time that the company would have to file for bankruptcy. He proposed transferring assets, including technology contracts, from GloriFi to another entity under his control, according to emails among GloriFi executives, board members and attorneys. The transfer didn’t take place at that time.

Mr. Neugebauer said he became convinced that Mr. Ayers and the investors wanted to take GloriFi, and he pushed to remove Mr. Ayers from the board. GloriFi said Mr. Ayers was removed on April 5.

Around this time, one of GloriFi’s investors, Vivek Ramaswamy, was working to launch his own financial-services firm. Strive Asset Management would offer investors an alternative to firms such as BlackRock Inc., which has pushed companies to improve diversity and cut their climate emissions, among other changes. Strive, instead, would push companies to focus on making money, not taking stands on social or political issues.

Mr. Neugebauer said he was furious and was convinced that Mr. Ramaswamy, who wrote the book “Woke, Inc.,” had stolen his idea. Mr. Neugebauer said he had even invested in Strive, thinking it was a conservative beer startup.

“Asset management was core to Strive’s strategy since inception,” the company said.

Launch delay
GloriFi’s official launch date was repeatedly pushed back. State insurance regulators required the company to set aside funds to cover insurance claims. Mr. Neugebauer proposed personally lending the company money for the capital cushion, but Texas insurance regulators balked at the terms of the loan, according to people familiar with the matter.

Mr. Neugebauer had hoped to offer a homeowners insurance product that would give responsible gun owners a discount of 10%. The company’s polling found that 58% of Donald Trump supporters would be interested in switching to such a policy. Executives also wanted to offer coverage for a customer’s legal costs in the event they shot someone in self-defense.

GloriFi said the technology for writing these policies wasn’t working properly.

At 11:30 a.m. on May 24, Mr. Neugebauer summoned Mr. Rios, the head of the insurance business who had earlier praised the CEO’s vision, to meet at a local P.F. Chang’s restaurant. “Toby was drunk. He ordered me tequila and I said no. He said I would need it,” according to a report Mr. Rios later made to the police alleging he was verbally accosted. “He called me an habitual liar, and I offered to leave. He threatened to ruin my life if I left, and he would use the [government] to do so.”

Mr. Neugebauer was “livid but not intoxicated,” said Cathy Landtroop, GloriFi’s chief marketing and communications officer, who was present at the meeting. Mr. Neugebauer said he was upset about delays in the insurance business.

The Dallas Police Department determined there wasn’t evidence of a crime and declined to take further action, a spokeswoman said.

Law firm Locke Lord LLP was hired by GloriFi’s board to look into the company’s alleged workplace issues, including allegations of drinking and the verbal altercation at P.F. Chang’s, and the proposed asset transfer. The firm, which interviewed more than 20 people and reviewed thousands of emails and other documents, found that the evidence didn’t support any legal claims against Mr. Neugebauer or GloriFi, Nick Dickerson, a partner at the firm who led the probe, said in an interview.

“It’s no secret that Mr. Neugebauer is a demanding boss,” he said. “He can come down hard when he doesn’t think folks are performing.”

In June, the insurance executive involved in the alleged altercation with Mr. Neugebauer at P.F. Chang’s was fired, and many of his group’s employees were laid off.

GloriFi had hoped to originate mortgages through the bank it wanted to acquire. Without Fed approval for that deal, the company laid off most mortgage employees this summer and now plans to partner with a nonbank lender called Sun West Mortgage Co.

SPAC deal
In July, GloriFi announced a deal to merge with DHC Acquisition Corp., DHCA 0.39%▲ a SPAC. The deal valued GloriFi at about $1.7 billion.

The company hasn’t released historical or projected earnings or an investor presentation since the deal was announced. “We wanted to wait until everyone returned from their summer vacations” before releasing more information to investors, Mr. Neugebauer said.

The company recently launched credit cards with pro-police and Constitution designs, and what it calls its “exclusive, elite” brass credit card, redesigned after the earlier plan to use the shell casing material was dropped.

GloriFi took center stage at the CPAC event this summer. “It’s time for the conservatives to deliver better products than the people who hate us,” Mr. Neugebauer said on a panel.

A technology vendor, EastBanc Technologies LLC, filed a lawsuit in Washington, D.C., in July seeking more than $2.4 million for what the company said were unpaid invoices and fees. GloriFi admitted it didn’t pay certain invoices in a response filed in September. It also filed its own legal claim against the vendor, accusing it of fraud and providing products that “were plagued with defects and unusable.”

On a call with investors in September, Mr. Neugebauer suggested the company might accelerate a plan already in the works to offer financial services to Latinos. Mr. Neugebauer expressed the idea that people were trying to hurt GloriFi, and his wife read a Bible passage about adversity.

In the August interview, Mr. Neugebauer spoke of the company with emotion, his blue eyes filling with tears. “This is a child of mine that I’m so proud of that I can hardly stand it,” he said.

FT : Are central banks going bankrupt?

Are central banks going bankrupt?
No, but there are some interesting issues surrounding their QE P&L

The bond market has had a lousy year. And no one holds more bonds than central banks, which have amassed a fixed income portfolio worth well north of $30tn over the past decade. But do their mounting losses actually matter?

Yes and no. Central banks are obviously pretty unique institutions. On one hand they have a balance sheet and a P&L like anyone else, and right now they’re not looking great.

Toby Nangle estimates the Bank of England’s losses alone are currently around £200bn, and the Federal Reserve says it had notched up almost $720bn of unrealised losses by the end of the second quarter (updated with newer data).


On the other hand, central banks are constructs of sovereign states and can literally create money out of thin air, which makes the whole bankruptcy question take on a different dimension.

Morgan Stanley’s chief economist Seth Carpenter wrote one of the definitive papers on the subject while at the Fed a decade ago, and revisited the subject over the weekend. Given the timeliness we thought we’d share and paraphrase liberally from it.

Central bank profits and losses matter . . . but only when they matter. Before the 1900s, the subject of economics was called “political economy.” Central bank losses that affect fiscal outcomes may have political ramifications, but the banks’ ability to conduct policy is not impaired . . .

. . . Starting with the Fed, all the income generated on the System Open Market Account portfolio, less interest expense, realized losses, and operating costs is remitted to the US Treasury. Before the Global Financial Crisis, these remittances averaged $20-25 billion per year; they ballooned to more than $100 billion as the balance sheet grew. These remittances reduce the deficit and borrowing needs. Net income depends on the (mostly fixed) average coupon on assets, the share of liabilities that are interest free (physical paper currency), and the level of reserves and reverse repo balances, whose costs float with the policy rate. From essentially zero in 2007, interest-bearing liabilities have mushroomed to almost two-thirds of the balance sheet.

As the chart below shows, the US central bank’s net income (which have been passed back to the US Treasury) has turned negative, and Morgan Stanley forecasts the losses will rise as interest rates rise.

Carpenter points out that most central banks, including the Fed, don’t mark to market, so any losses are unrealised and don’t flow through to the central bank’s income statement until they actually sells asset. But that obviously raises a lot of interesting questions.

So, what do losses mean? Is there a hit to capital? Bankruptcy? An inability to conduct monetary policy? No. First, remittances to the Treasury end, and the Treasury issues more debt. The Fed then cumulates its losses and, rather than reducing its capital, creates a “deferred asset.”1 When earnings turn positive again, remittances stay at zero until the losses are recouped; imagine the Fed facing a 100% tax rate and offsetting current losses with future income. Profitability will eventually return because currency will keep growing, lowering interest expense, and QT will shrink interest-bearing liabilities.

Things are similar elsewhere, but with local twists, such as the Czech central bank’s longstanding negative equity, or the fact that the Bank of England obtained an explicit UK government indemnification to be made whole from any losses when it started passing on its QE profits.

The effect is essentially the same as with the Fed, but the political economy differs. Where HMT and the BoE share responsibility, the Fed is on its own. Passive unwinding for the BoE is hard, given the lumpy maturity structure of gilt holdings, while the Fed has up to $95 billion per month running off passively. For the BoE, a one percentage point increase in Bank Rate lowers remittances by roughly £10 billion per year, a material sum for a country grappling with fiscal issues. The proposal to lower expense by prohibiting interest payments on reserves deserves scrutiny. If no authority remains, the BoE would have to sell assets to regain monetary control, realizing losses. The losses exist; it is the timing that is in question.

The ECB’s balance sheet is structured quite differently, but the logic is similar. Our European team projects the depo rate at 2.5% by next March, which implies ECB losses of around €40 billion next year. Bank deposits receive the depo rate, which will be much higher than the yield on the portfolio. The BoJ’s balance sheet has similarly swelled, but as of March (the latest available data), the BoJ was in an unrealized gain position. We think that yield curve control (YCC) will be maintained through the end of Governor Kuroda’s term, but when it ends, if the JGB curve sells off sharply, the losses could be large, though unrealized.

The most interesting variant is the Czech National Bank. The CNB has had a negative equity position for most of the past 20 years. Managing a small, open economy means focusing on the exchange rate, and most assets are foreign currency-denominated. If the central bank is credible and the Czech koruna rises, the value of its assets falls. The same is true for the Swiss National Bank, whose profits and losses have swung by billions in some years, yet it has not lost control of policy.

Central bank negative equity; coming to a Fed or BoE or ECB near you soon?