FT : Schwartz kicks off Carlyle tenure with lots of listening but no big ideas

Schwartz kicks off Carlyle tenure with lots of listening but no big ideas
New CEO of private equity group holds extensive reviews with executives in prelude to anticipated shake-up

Three weeks after taking the reins of Carlyle Group, Harvey Schwartz was holding court on the unfolding banking turmoil during an appearance in front of the private equity firm’s top dealmakers.

It was four days after Silicon Valley Bank had collapsed and the former Goldman Sachs president predicted the financial system was nowhere near a 2008-style crisis, according to people who attended the meeting. But he also warned his audience against complacency, urging them to be on the lookout for a sudden evaporation of confidence.

For Schwartz, a Goldman veteran who led the bank’s trading division through the great financial crisis, it was a chance to show Carlyle’s top brass how his Wall Street experience was relevant to an altogether different challenge: reviving a storied private equity group with $400bn in assets that has been twisting in the wind since the abrupt and acrimonious exit of his predecessor Kewsong Lee in August last year.

As Carlyle prepares to unveil its quarterly earnings on Thursday, its first results since Schwartz took over, insiders say the exchange of ideas via long talking and learning sessions has become the hallmark of his leadership style so far.

Analysts are not expecting Schwartz to announce a major restructuring this week or to unveil any big ideas on how to restore Carlyle to its former glory. Blackstone, Carlyle’s main rival in corporate buyouts when it went public in 2012, has since seen its market value eclipse $100bn. That makes it worth about 10 times as much as a company once seen as its equal.

“[We] expect early thoughts from new CEO Harvey Schwartz but no substantive commentary at this time,” said Michael Brown, an analyst who covers Carlyle at Keefe, Bruyette & Woods.

Schwartz has spent his first two-and-a-half months at the firm presenting himself as a keen listener, an image that runs somewhat counter to the reputation as a corporate bruiser he earned while at Goldman.

In addition to hosting roughly a dozen town halls, he has led forensic reviews of each of Carlyle’s businesses that have stretched on for two hours or more, during which he has peppered leaders with questions on strategy and performance.

“His message has very much been ‘help me help you’,” said one person involved in the meetings. Schwartz has also promised not to second guess the firm’s dealmakers on investments. Several insiders said the phrase “I’m not an investor” had become a common refrain. He was not on the investment committee of Carlyle’s flagship buyout funds, sources said.

Yet few think the listening sessions will last for much longer, with many insiders believing Schwartz is gathering the information he needs before embarking on a significant restructuring of the group.

The business reviews “are being received as interviewing for your job”, said one person briefed on the meetings. “He is direct and it is candid . . . He is asking a lot of questions. But he is not patronising everyone and being derogatory,” said another.

Multiple people familiar with Carlyle said they expected Schwartz to make dramatic changes that would integrate units that had long been run like independent fiefdoms, and to name a core leadership group responsible for the entire firm.

Schwartz must also decide which businesses, from credit to sustainable investments, can be expanded against a more challenging financial backdrop and which ones should be jettisoned.

He will also have to prevent the firm from bleeding talent, particularly dealmakers close to Lee and Peter Clare, another recently departed executive.

Externally, Schwartz has been trying to reassure the firm’s largest investors, including pension funds and sovereign wealth funds.

Meanwhile, Carlyle is still struggling to find the cash it needs to do new deals. Its latest buyout fund has raised just $14bn versus an initial target of $22bn set in 2021.

Some investors in its funds, known as limited partners, said they were becoming frustrated by how long the fundraising had dragged on and suggested that Carlyle should admit defeat by closing the fund early. “Write it off as a bad job and get on with investing it,” said one.

Not that spending the money will be particularly easy either. “In the investing environment broadly, I think this is one of the most complex times we’ve had,” Schwartz said at the Milken conference in Beverly Hills this week.

“Many of the trends that we lived with are slowing if not reversing . . . I think that sets up an incredibly interesting backdrop, both economically, globally and in terms of the opportunity set.”

>>> Europe : Brokers Upgrades & Downgrades - 3rd of May 2023 V2(+)

>>> Up
* Ageas Raised to Buy at ING; PT 50 euros
* Amplifon Raised to Accumulate at Banca Akros (+)
* Belships Raised to Buy at Norne Securities; PT 25 kroner (+)
* BioMerieux Raised to Hold at HSBC; PT 90 euros
* Caltagirone Raised Mediobanca Stake to 9.9%: Stampa
* Collector Bank Raised to Buy at DNB Markets; PT 40 kronor
* Elmos Semiconductor Raised to Buy at M.M. Warburg (+)
* Globalstar Raised to Equal-Weight at Morgan Stanley; PT 97 cents
* HSBC Raised to Buy at Berenberg; PT 780 pence
* Molson Coors Raised to Neutral at JPMorgan; PT $64
* Permascand Top Holding Raised to Buy at ABG; PT 25 kronor
* Richemont PT Raised to 185 Swiss francs at HSBC
* Saab Raised to Buy at Kepler Cheuvreux; PT 647 kronor (+)
* TUI Raised to Buy at HSBC; PT 9.10 euros

>>> Down
* Campari Cut to Accumulate at Banca Akros (+)
* Dormakaba Cut to Neutral at Credit Suisse; PT 447 Swiss francs
* Kingfish Cut to Hold at Arctic Securities; PT 11 kroner (+)
* Nemetschek Cut to Reduce at Baader Helvea; PT 73 euros
* SBB Cut to Hold at Pareto Securities; PT 16 kronor (+)

>>> Initiation
* Alfen Rated New Accumulate at KBC Securities; PT 83 euros (+)
* Basilea Rated New Buy at Baader Helvea; PT 57.70 Swiss francs
* Eni Maintained at Neutral at Intermonte; PT 15 euros
* Porvair Rated New Buy at Investec; PT 800 pence (+)

>>> Call
* Ambu’s Soft Organic Growth Disappointing, Handelsbanken Says
* Citi’s Wealth Unit Adds Asia Stocks, Sells US on Growth Outlook (+)
* Colruyt Guidance Raise Importantly Driven by Cost Savings: MS
* Dormakaba Cut at Credit Suisse on Margin Expansion Pessimism
* Economic Outlook to Support Europe Stocks, HSBC’s Stanford Says (+)
* HSBC Raised at Berenberg With Structural Attractions Undervalued
* Morgan Stanley, UBS Pick Bonds Over Stocks on Recession Risk
* Nemetschek Downgraded at Baader as Good Momentum Set to Slow
* Neoen’s Guidance Clarification Is Encouraging: Morgan Stanley
* Oerlikon Delivers Results Ahead of Soft Expectations, RBC Says
* Pandora 1Q Results Beat Estimates, Helped by UK Sales: RBC (+)
* Sinch Loses Only Sell as Morgan Stanley Upgrades After De-Rating

>>> Stoxx 600 Pre-Market Indications

  • AMS-Osram (DQW1 TH) +2.2%
  • UniCredit (CRIN TH) +2.1%
    • UniCredit Beats Across the Board with Better Guidance: KBW
  • Flutter (PPB TH) +2.1%
    • Flutter 1Q Revenue Beats Estimates
  • BP (BPE5 TH) +1.7%
  • BNP Paribas (BNP TH) +1.5%
    • BNP’s Fixed-Income Traders Defy Gloom in Challenging Quarter
  • Pandora (3P7 TH) +1.4%
    • Pandora Narrows FY Organic Revenue Forecast
  • Vonovia (VNA TH) +1.4%
  • Rio Tinto (RIO1 TH) +1.3%
  • Ageas (FO4N TH) +1.1%
    • Ageas Raised to Buy at ING; PT 50 euros
  • Commerzbank (CBK TH) +1.1%
  • Erste (EBO TH) -0.6%
  • Nemetschek (NEM TH) -0.9%
    • Nemetschek Downgraded at Baader as Good Momentum Set to Slow
  • Prosus (1TY TH) -1%
  • Nel (D7G TH) -1.1%
  • Lufthansa (LHA TH) -1.5%
    • Lufthansa Sees Earnings Above Pre-Crisis Levels Amid Rebound (1)
  • Signify (G14 TH) -2.3%
    • Signify 1Q Comparable Sales Misses Estimates

>>> TradeGate Pre-Market Indications

DAX:
  • Fresenius SE (FRE TH) +1.1%
  • Deutsche Bank (DBK TH) +1.1%
    • Deutsche Bank’s Numis Bid Is Rare Boost for London: ECM Watch
  • Mercedes (MBG TH) +0.9%
    • Watch Auto Stocks After Ford Warns of Opaque 2023 Outlook
  • Daimler Truck (DTG TH) +0.9%
  • Vonovia (VNA TH) +0.9%
MDAX:
  • Wacker Chemie (WCH TH) +1.4%
  • Aixtron (AIXA TH) +1.4%
    • Watch European Chip Stocks as AMD Gives Tepid Forecast on Demand
  • United Internet (UTDI TH) +1.3%
  • K+S (SDF TH) +1.2%
  • Evonik (EVK TH) +1.1%
  • Nordex (NDX1 TH) -0.9%
  • Lufthansa (LHA TH) -1.2%
    • Lufthansa Sees Earnings Above Pre-Crisis Levels Amid Rebound
SDAX:
  • AUTO1 (AG1 TH) +6%
    • AUTO1 1Q Adjusted Ebitda Loss EU25.1M Vs. Loss EU47.6M Y/y
  • Varta (VAR1 TH) +1.6%
  • Deutsche PBB (PBB TH) +1.2%
  • PVA TePla (TPE TH) +0.8%
  • flatexDEGIRO (FTK TH) +0.6%
  • Heidelberger Druck (HDD TH) -0.7%
  • Hochtief (HOT TH) -0.7%
  • Deutz (DEZ TH) -1%
  • Synlab (SYAB TH) -1.4%
    • Florida SBA Backs Synlab on 9 of 12 Proposals at May 17 AGM

>>> Europe : Brokers Upgrades & Downgrades - 3rd of May 2023

>>> Up
* Ageas Raised to Buy at ING; PT 50 euros
* BioMerieux Raised to Hold at HSBC; PT 90 euros
* Caltagirone Raised Mediobanca Stake to 9.9%: Stampa
* Collector Bank Raised to Buy at DNB Markets; PT 40 kronor
* Globalstar Raised to Equal-Weight at Morgan Stanley; PT 97 cents
* HSBC Raised to Buy at Berenberg; PT 780 pence
* Molson Coors Raised to Neutral at JPMorgan; PT $64
* Permascand Top Holding Raised to Buy at ABG; PT 25 kronor
* Richemont PT Raised to 185 Swiss francs at HSBC
* TUI Raised to Buy at HSBC; PT 9.10 euros

>>> Down
* Dormakaba Cut to Neutral at Credit Suisse; PT 447 Swiss francs
* Nemetschek Cut to Reduce at Baader Helvea; PT 73 euros

>>> Initiation
* Basilea Rated New Buy at Baader Helvea; PT 57.70 Swiss francs
* Eni Maintained at Neutral at Intermonte; PT 15 euros

>>> Call
* Ambu’s Soft Organic Growth Disappointing, Handelsbanken Says
* Colruyt Guidance Raise Importantly Driven by Cost Savings: MS
* Dormakaba Cut at Credit Suisse on Margin Expansion Pessimism
* HSBC Raised at Berenberg With Structural Attractions Undervalued
* Morgan Stanley, UBS Pick Bonds Over Stocks on Recession Risk
* Nemetschek Downgraded at Baader as Good Momentum Set to Slow
* Neoen’s Guidance Clarification Is Encouraging: Morgan Stanley
* Oerlikon Delivers Results Ahead of Soft Expectations, RBC Says
* Sinch Loses Only Sell as Morgan Stanley Upgrades After De-Rating

>>> What to look at today - 3rd of May 2023

Shares in Asia slipped on renewed concerns about the health of the banking sector and ahead of a Federal Reserve decision Wednesday where policymakers are expected to add to their rate-hike cycle. MSCI Inc.’s Asia Pacific Index headed for its first loss in five days with benchmark indexes in Hong Kong, South Korea and Australia all declining. Energy and banking shares were among the biggest losers. Markets are shut in Japan and mainland China for holidays, and there’s no trading of cash Treasuries in Asia hours. The dollar weakened. The S&P 500 fell 1.2% Tuesday as US regional lenders PacWest Bancorp and Western Alliance Bancorp both tumbled at least 15%. That came just a day after JPMorgan Chase & Co.’s acquisition of First Republic Bank seemed to bolster confidence in the sector. US futures ticked marginally higher in Asian trade and Euro Stoxx 50 futures gained. Swap traders are pricing a more than 90% probability the Fed will raise borrowing costs by 25 basis points later Wednesday, bringing the key rate to the highest since 2007. Market pricing also indicates the increase will mark the peak of the tightening cycle before weaker growth prompts the central bank to cut rates later in the year. The dollar fell against all its Group-of-10 peers as traders positioned for the Fed decision. Treasury futures traded in a narrow range in Asia after jumping Tuesday as concerns over the banking sector boosted demand for haven assets. A lack of clarity regarding the US debt ceiling added to the uncertain mood. Between now and June 1 — the date by which the Treasury Department may run out of sufficient cash — President Joe Biden and members of the House and Senate are scheduled to be in town at the same time for the sum total of one week to find a solution. US economic data pointed to a cooling of the labor market, with the number of job openings in March dropping to the lowest level in two years. In Europe, BNP Paribas SA reported higher revenue from debt trading and global banking in the first quarter, while Deutsche Lufthansa AG said it expected earnings to rise above pre-pandemic levels in the second quarter as air travel rebounds. Oil edged lower in Asia after tumbling more than 5% on Tuesday, and gold was little changed. US After Hours Busy earnings night; SPT -14.2%, AMD -6.3%, SBUX -4.8%, HLF -4.3%, F -2% lower on earnings; SMCI +8.7%, LTHM +8%, ARWR +6.6%, LUMN +5.8% higher on earnings.

Nikkei Close Hang Seng -1.82% CSI +1.02% Shanghai +1.14% Shenzen +1.41%

Eur$ 1.1022 CNH 6.9357 CNY 6.9184 JPY 135.95 GBP 1.2488 CHF 0.8913 RUB 79.9940 TRY 19.4761 WTI$ 71.53 -0.18% Gold 2,015 -0.09% BTC 28,503 -0.67% ETH 1,862 -0.45%

S&P +0.18% Nasdaq +0.01% EuroStoxx +0.55% FTSE +0.32% Dax +0.50% SMI +0.35%

Macro :
- Morgan Stanley, UBS Pick Bonds Over Stocks on Recession Risk
- UK Proposes Ditching Premium Listings to Boost London’s Appeal
- BofA’s Institutional Clients Plow Into Stocks as Retail Exits

Keep an eye on :
- ADS GY : House Panel Seeks Info from Nike, Adidas on China Forced Labor
- ABNB US : Airbnb to Reveal ‘Most Extensive Set of Improvements’ Wednesday
- ALB US : Lithium Giant Albemarle Eyes $1.5 Billion Processing Expansion
- AMBUB DC : Ambu 2Q Ebit Misses Estimates
- APAM NA : Aperam 1Q Adjusted Ebitda Misses Estimates
- AG1 GY : AUTO1 1Q Adjusted Ebitda Loss EU25.1M Vs. Loss EU47.6M Y/y
- BNP FP : BNP Paribas 1Q FICC Sales & Trading Rev EU1.91B Vs. EU1.75B Y/y
- BRAV SS : Bravida 1Q Net Sales SEK7.43B Vs. SEK5.83B Y/y
- BRG NO : Borregaard 1Q Ebitda Beats Estimates
- AI US : AI Start-Up Cohere in Talks for $250m in Fresh Funding: FT
- COLR BB : Colruyt Group Lifts FY Net Result Outlook
- DEMANT DC : Demant Maintains FY Ebit Forecast
- DPW GY : Deutsche Post 1Q Ebit Beats Estimates, Affirms Forecast
- EDPR PL : EDP Renovaveis 1Q Net Income EU65M Vs. EU66M Y/y
- EDPR PL : EDPR Approves EU67.4m Capital Increase for Scrip Dividend Plan
- EDP PL : EDPR Gets Long Term PPA With Inditex for Wind Portfolio in Spain
- ETL FP : SES, Eutelsat Good Fits for Europe Sovereign-Communication Plan
- IBE SM : Mexico to Seek Equity, Debt Financing for Iberdrola Power Deal
- IEP US : Icahn Enterprises Plunge One of Hindenburg’s Many Hits (Correct)
- NK FP : Imerys 1Q Organic Revenue -0.9%
- KCO GY : Kloeckner 1Q Adjusted Ebitda EU69M Vs. EU201M Y/y
- LCIN US : Lannett Company Files for Chapter 11 in Delaware Court
- LNZ AV : Lenzing 1Q Ebitda -66% Y/y; Sees First Signs of Recovery (1)
- LIAB SS : Lindab 1Q Operating Profit Beats Estimates
- LSEG LN : UK Proposes Ditching Premium Listings to Boost London’s Appeal
- LHA GY : Lufthansa Sees 2Q Adj Ebit Above Pre-Crisis Level of €754m
- MBTN SW : Meyer Burger, Ingka Investments Sign Offtake Deal for 4 Years
- NEOEN FP : Neoen 1Q Revenue EU154.4M Vs. EU109.1M Y/y
- NKT DC : NKT: Denmark Rejected Divestment of Unit to Hamamatsu Photonics
- OERL SW : Oerlikon 1Q Ebitda Beats Estimates
- PNDORA DC : Pandora Narrows FY Organic Revenue Forecast
- PCA FP : Pcas Gets Offer for Canadan Unit at Value of EU88M
- PRL IM : 3M to Sell Some Local Anesthetic Assets to Pierrel for $70M
- RAIVV FH : Raisio 1Q Net Sales Beats Estimates
- SAN FP : Lilly, Sanofi to Cap Insulin at $35/Month for Uninsured in NY
- SCST SS : Scandi Standard 1Q Operating Profit Meets Estimates
- SEBA SS : SEB Economists Revise Swedish Growth Forecast Upward for 2023
- SESG FP : SES, Eutelsat Good Fits for Europe Sovereign-Communication Plan
- LIGHT NA : Signify 1Q Comparable Sales Misses Estimates
- SF SS : Stillfront 1Q Ebit Misses Estimates
- STMN SW : Straumann 1Q EMEA Revenue Beats Estimates
- TMW GY : TeamViewer SE Maintains FY Adjusted Ebitda Margin Forecast
- TWKS US : Apax Said to Weigh Buyout of $2 Billion IT Firm Thoughtworks
- 8TRA GY : Class 8 Truck North American Orders Fall 22% YoY in April
- UCG IM : UniCredit Boosts Profit, Payout Targets After Record Quarter
- URW NA : Simon Property Narrows FY FFO per Share Forecast
- VWS DC : Vestas Gets Positive Catalyst Watch at Citi on US IRA Upside
- VOW GY : *FORD MOTOR SHARES DROP 3% POSTMARKET AFTER RESULTS

>>> US Close Dow -1.08% S&P -1.16% Nasdaq -1.08% Russell -2.10%

Closing Stock Market Summary

Concerns over an economic slowdown were driving today's sell-off, along with the surprisingly large fallout in bank stocks on no news. In addition, worries about the debt ceiling weighed on investors' sentiment after Treasury Secretary Yellen warned that the Treasury is unlikely to be able to continue to satisfy all of the government's obligations by June, and potentially as early as June 1.

The S&P 500, which hit 4,186 at its high yesterday, briefly slipped below the 4,100 level today. Ultimately, the major indices were able to close off their worst levels of the day, albeit still sporting losses of at least 1.1%.

Today's downbeat price action comes ahead of an FOMC policy decision tomorrow, where a 25 basis point rate hike is expected but the tone of the directive and Fed Chair Powell's remarks is still indeterminate. 

The bank stock sell-off was presumably tied to concerns about an economic slowdown weighing on earnings estimates. PacWest (PACW 6.55, -2.52, -27.8%) and Western Alliance (WAL 30.93, -5.51, -15.1%) were some of the biggest losers in the regional bank space; however, even larger banks that had been viewed as potentially benefitting from the fallout in the regional bank industry, like JPMorgan Chase (JPM 138.92, -2.28, -1.6%) and Bank of America (BAC 28.16, -0.88, -3.0%), underperformed the broader market. 

Slowdown concerns were fueled by some manufacturing PMI readings for April out of the eurozone that were weaker than March, a JOLTs - Job Openings Report for March that showed openings shrinking to 9.590 million from 9.974 million in February, and a 0.6% decline in nondefense capital goods orders, excluding aircraft, for March.

Global growth concerns also manifested themselves in falling commodity prices. WTI crude oil futures sank 5.4% to $71.72/bbl and copper futures declined 1.6% to $3.87/lb. 

The sharp decline in oil prices contributed to the underperformance of the S&P 500 energy sector (-4.3%), which logged the biggest decline by a sizable margin. Unsurprisingly, the financials sector (-2.3%) was another top laggard today.

The consumer discretionary sector (+0.2%) was the lone standout in positive territory thanks to gain in Amazon.com (AMZN 103.63, +1.58, +1.6%). 

In the Treasury market, the nervousness about the debt ceiling issue, an economic slowdown, and the behavior of the bank stocks fueled buying interest in most tenors. The 2-yr Treasury note yield sank 15 basis points to 3.97% and the 10-yr note yield fell 14 basis points to 3.44%.

  • Nasdaq Composite: +15.4% YTD
  • S&P 500: +7.3% YTD
  • Dow Jones Industrial Average: +1.6% YTD
  • S&P Midcap 400: +1.0% YTD
  • Russell 2000: -1.7% YTD

Reviewing today's economic data:

  • March Factory Orders 0.9% ( consensus 1.4%); Prior was revised to -1.1% from -0.7%
    • The key takeaway from the report is that factory orders weren't as robust as they appear at first blush. Nondefense aircraft and parts orders, up 78.3%, drove the increase. Excluding transportation, new orders were down 0.7% month-over-month for the second straight month.
  • March JOLTS - Job Openings 9.590 mln; Prior was revised to 9.974 mln from 9.931 mln

Ahead of Wednesday's open, CVS Health (CVS), Phillips 66 (PSX), Kraft Heinz (KHC), Exelon (EXC), CDW (CDW), Adient (ADNT), Estee Lauder (EL), Emerson (EMR), Builders FirstSource (BLDR), Yum! Brands (YUM), Scotts Miracle-Gro (SMG), Hanesbrands (HBI), Garmin (GRMN), and Generac (GNRC) are among the more notable companies reporting earnings. 

Market participants will receive the following economic data tomorrow:

  • 7:00 ET: Weekly MBA Mortgage Index (prior 3.7%)
  • 8:15 ET: April ADP Employment Change ( consensus 142,000; prior 145,000)
  • 9:45 ET: Final April IHS Markit Services PMI (prior 53.7)
  • 10:00 ET: April ISM Non-Manufacturing Index (consensus 51.9%; prior 51.2%)
  • 10:30 ET: Weekly crude oil inventories (prior -5.05 mln)
  • 14:00 ET: May FOMC Decision ( consensus 5.00-5.25%; prior 4.75-5.00%)