FT : Mercedes chief hits out at EU tariffs set to penalise carmakers

Mercedes chief hits out at EU tariffs set to penalise carmakers
Ola Källenius calls for delay in post-Brexit sourcing rules and warns new tariffs will dent industry competitiveness

The head of Mercedes-Benz has called for a delay in post-Brexit rules that would add stiffer tariffs on shipments to and from the UK and Europe from next year, saying the car supply chain in Europe was not yet self-sufficient enough to meet tougher sourcing requirements.

The German carmaker’s chief executive Ola Källenius said January 2024 was “too soon” to bring in tariff rules set out in a post-Brexit trade agreement, rules intended to encourage more local sourcing of vehicle components.

Under these so-called rules of origin, electric cars exported between the UK and the EU will need to have 45 per cent of their parts sourced within the two regions to avoid 10 per cent tariffs. 

Källenius joined other European carmakers lobbying for a delay, including Stellantis boss Carlos Tavares who on Tuesday called for the phase-in date to be pushed back to 2027, warning the current timeframe was a “lose lose” situation for both the EU and the UK.

“As the production capacity of Europe’s battery industry is not yet sufficient, to demand stringent rules of origin poses a major challenge for the competitiveness of our industry,” Källenius said at the inauguration of a cell manufacturing plant in northern France, the first of four planned car battery plants planned in the region. 

The factory — which will supply Mercedes’ electric cars and is part of its battery partnership with TotalEnergies and Stellantis — was a step in the right direction towards building a standalone European car manufacturing industry, at a time when the region was trying to wean itself off dominant Chinese and Asian batteries, Källenius added. 

“But all in all, the first of January 2024 is too soon. We need more time for this transition and we would therefore appreciate political support, together with our British partners, in this matter,” Källenius said. 

The looming deadline and backlash from carmakers has highlighted the scale of Europe’s challenge to catch up with Chinese and South Korean battery producers, the main suppliers globally to electric vehicle manufacturers. 

Mercedes’ joint venture with Stellantis and Total, called Automotive Cells Co or ACC, is set to get under way this year with an initial 13 gigawatt/hour capacity at a plant in Douvrin, in northern France. Two more factories are expected to launch in Germany and Italy by 2030, with the aim eventually of supplying 2mn batteries a year. 

These are among a handful of similar projects carmakers are trying to progress across Europe, many of which are supported by state subsidies. French ministers on Tuesday said government support would help make local production competitive compared to Asian or US-made alternatives.

They also vaunted the lower carbon footprint of the European plants, which would add to the products’ appeal for car manufacturers trying to comply with increasingly strict emissions rules.

But battery supplies and production for now are constrained and dependent on Asia, just as carmakers are already racing to try and outdo each other with new electric models.

Tavares said a consensus was emerging that 2027 would be a reasonable phase-in date for the new tariff rules.

These could deal a further blow to Britain’s struggling car industry, not least because of Stellantis, the group behind Vauxhall, also threatening to close its UK factory of Ellesmere Port unless the tariff issue is renegotiated.

“It’s a technical adjustment that should not create too much trouble,” Tavares said on Tuesday, asked about delaying the phase-in to 2027. “Without [a deal] this looming deadline will create a lose-lose situation [for Britain and Europe]. As both will lose from it, it would be in both their interests to change the date.”

WSJ : Turkey’s Lira Hits New Low After Erdogan’s Re-Election

Turkey’s Lira Hits New Low After Erdogan’s Re-Election
Absent a radical change of policy or a bailout, the country is inching ever closer to financial ruin, economists say

ISTANBUL—Turkey’s local currency fell to a record low on Tuesday amid concerns that President Recep Tayyip Erdogan would stick to his unusual approach to managing the country’s strained finances following his re-election over the weekend.

The lira last traded at 20.4 to a U.S. dollar, down 1.4%, making it the currency’s most severe daily decline since June 2022.

Turkey’s economic imbalances, including the sliding lira, a shortage of foreign currency and galloping inflation, are shaping up to be Erdogan’s biggest challenge as he enters his third decade of rule. The Turkish president won a runoff election on Sunday, defeating a challenger who promised to restore orthodox economic policies and bring Western investment back to the country.

The lira has lost some 80% of its value in the last five years as Erdogan has taken greater control over the country’s finances, firing three central bank governors and pressuring the bank to cut interest rates despite high inflation—the opposite of what central banks throughout the world usually do in such cases.

Erdogan says his approach is intended to spur economic growth and ensure high employment. He has also argued that lower interest rates will eventually bring down inflation. Turkey’s central bank has also spent tens of billions of dollars in defense of the lira in recent months, pushing the country’s net international reserves into the red.

Absent a dramatic change of policy by Erdogan or a bailout from a foreign government, Turkey is inching ever closer to financial ruin, economists say.

“I think this is them loosening the grip,” said Liam Peach, a senior emerging markets economist at Capital Economics. “The low foreign-exchange reserves means their firepower has been depleted.”

During his campaign for re-election, Erdogan repeatedly said he would continue his policy of lower interest rates. In a speech to Turkey’s Union of Chambers and Commodity Exchanges on Tuesday, he pushed back against domestic opposition officials who have predicted an economic crisis.

“They were supposed to present this Turkish economy to the loan sharks in London but they couldn’t panic our business world,” Erdogan said. “Every time they open their mouths they present a dark future for the Turkish economy. Please pay no attention to these doomsayers.”

The Turkish government spent freely in the months leading up to the election, offering the country free natural gas for a month and stepping up central bank interventions that propped up the value of the lira.

Part of the challenge facing the Turkish government, economists say, is how to allow a depreciation in the lira without triggering a panic. A severe drop in the lira in late 2021 raised concerns that the country was headed for a run on banks. A weaker lira would also compound Turkey’s inflation problem by raising the cost of imports.

“The government is probably aiming for a controlled economic slowdown, allowing the lira to depreciate faster, which is an inevitable choice given their lack of foreign currency reserves, and accept the consequent tightening in financial conditions as a result,” said Selva Demiralp, a professor of economics at Istanbul’s Koc University and a former economist at the U.S. Federal Reserve Board.

The bulk of Turkey’s reserves are borrowed. The Turkish central bank uses currency-swap agreements, through which banks and foreign governments sell dollars and other foreign currencies in exchange for lira for a limited time. Excluding those swaps, Turkey’s reserves were a negative $60 billion as of May 19.

As Western investors have scaled back investments in Turkey, the country has turned to Russia and the oil-rich Persian Gulf countries to help cushion its finances. Russia transferred as much as $15 billion dollars to Turkey last year for the construction of a nuclear power plant. As Turkey’s largest supplier of natural gas, Russia also agreed to a postponement of Turkish payments earlier this year. Saudi Arabia deposited $5 billion in the Turkish central bank in March.

Turkey could address the shortage of foreign currency by increasing swaps with local banks or asking Gulf countries to agree to swap in dollars or euros rather than their local currencies, economists say.

The country also forces exporters to convert 40% of their foreign-currency income into lira to help stabilize the local currency.

A specialized savings scheme introduced in late 2021 encourages Turks to keep their money in lira by guaranteeing to compensate for any decline in the local currency. The lira’s continuing slide will add to the cost of paying out those securities, raising the risk of a broader financial crisis, economists say. Deposits in the scheme reached more than $121 billion as of May 17, according to Turkey’s banking regulator.

“The question is how are they going to conjure up more dollars,” said Erik Meyersson, chief emerging-markets strategist at SEB. “There are still some rabbits that they can pull out of the hat, but I think we maybe have six months or maybe a year before things really go south.”

FT : AI executives warn its threat to humanity rivals ‘pandemics and nuclear war

AI executives warn its threat to humanity rivals ‘pandemics and nuclear war’
Statement with more than 350 signatories says mitigating the risk of extinction should be a ‘global priority’

A group of chief executives and scientists from companies including OpenAI and Google DeepMind has warned the threat to humanity from the fast-developing technology rivals that of nuclear conflict and disease.

“Mitigating the risk of extinction from AI should be a global priority alongside other societal-scale risks, such as pandemics and nuclear war,” said a statement published by the Center for AI Safety, a San Francisco-based non-profit organisation.

More than 350 AI executives, researchers and engineers, including Sam Altman of OpenAI, Demis Hassabis of Google DeepMind and Dario Amodei of Anthropic, were signatories of the one-sentence statement.

Geoffrey Hinton and Yoshua Bengio, who won a Turing Award for their work on neural networks and are often described as “godfathers” of AI, also signed the document. Hinton left his position at Google at the beginning of the month to speak freely about the potential harms of the technology.

The statement follows calls for regulation across the sector after a number of AI launches from Big Tech companies have heightened awareness of its potential flaws, including spreading misinformation, perpetuating societal biases and replacing workers.

EU lawmakers are pushing ahead with Europe’s Artificial Intelligence Act, while the US is also exploring regulation.

Microsoft-backed OpenAI’s ChatGPT, launched in November, is seen as leading the way in the widespread adoption of artificial intelligence. Altman this month gave testimony for the first time in US Congress, calling for regulation in the form of licences.

In March, Elon Musk and more than 1,000 other researchers and tech executives called for a six-month pause on the development of advanced AI systems to halt what they called an “arms race”.

The letter was criticised for its approach, including by some researchers cited within its reasoning, while others disagreed with the recommended pause on the technology.

With the one-line statement, the Center for AI Safety told the New York Times that it hoped to avoid disagreement.

“We didn’t want to push for a very large menu of 30 potential interventions,” executive director Dan Hendrycks said. “When that happens, it dilutes the message.”

Kevin Scott, Microsoft’s chief technology officer, and Eric Horvitz, its chief scientific officer, also signed the statement on Tuesday, as did Mustafa Suleyman, former Deepmind co-founder who now runs start-up Inflection AI.

>>> US Research Calls

Research Calls

  • Upgrades:
    • Alliant Energy (LNT) upgraded to Outperform from Market Perform at BMO Capital Markets; tgt lowered to $56
    • Boston Beer Co (SAM) upgraded to Buy from Neutral at ROTH MKM; tgt raised to $386
    • ChargePoint (CHPT) upgraded to Buy from Neutral at BofA Securities; tgt lowered to $14
    • Coinbase Global (COIN) upgraded to Overweight from Neutral at Atlantic Equities; tgt $70
    • Constellation Brands (STZ) upgraded to Buy from Neutral at ROTH MKM; tgt raised to $270
    • * Elevation Oncology (ELEV) upgraded to Outperform from Market Perform at SVB Securities; tgt raised to $8
    • Equitrans Midstream (ETRN) upgraded to Outperform from Sector Perform at RBC Capital Mkts; tgt raised to $10
    • Ford Motor (F) upgraded to Buy from Hold at Jefferies; tgt raised to $16
    • HEICO (HEI) upgraded to Buy from Hold at Vertical Research; tgt $191
    • Medtronic (MDT) upgraded to Overweight from Equal-Weight at Morgan Stanley; tgt $104
    • Paramount Global (PARA) upgraded to Peer Perform from Underperform at Wolfe Research
    • Universal Health (UHS) upgraded to Outperform from Market Perform at SVB Securities; tgt raised to $170
  • Downgrades:
    • Abbott Labs (ABT) downgraded to Equal-Weight from Overweight at Morgan Stanley; tgt $112
    • Millicom International Cellular (TIGO) downgraded to Equal Weight from Overweight at Barclays
  • Others:
    • ACELYRIN (SLRN) initiated with a Buy at Jefferies; tgt $31
    • ACELYRIN (SLRN) initiated with an Overweight at Piper Sandler; tgt $68
    • ACELYRIN (SLRN) initiated with an Outperform at TD Cowen
    • Alcon (ALC) assumed with an Equal-Weight at Morgan Stanley; tgt $85
    • Bausch + Lomb (BLCO) assumed with an Equal-Weight at Morgan Stanley; tgt $20
    • Baxter (BAX) assumed with an Equal-Weight at Morgan Stanley; tgt $45
    • Becton Dickinson (BDX) assumed with an Overweight at Morgan Stanley; tgt $295
    • Boston Scientific (BSX) assumed with an Overweight at Morgan Stanley; tgt $58
    • Confluent (CFLT) initiated with a Buy at Needham; tgt $35
    • CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP) initiated with an Outperform at William Blair; tgt $75
    • Cooper (COO) initiated with an Equal-Weight at Morgan Stanley; tgt $410
    • Dexcom (DXCM) assumed with an Equal-Weight at Morgan Stanley; tgt $131
    • Edwards Lifesciences (EW) assumed with an Overweight at Morgan Stanley; tgt $102
    • Insulet (PODD) assumed with an Equal-Weight at Morgan Stanley; tgt $343
    • Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) resumed with a Buy at Citigroup; tgt $185
    • Kenvue (KVUE) initiated with a Buy at BofA Securities; tgt $30
    • Kenvue (KVUE) initiated with a Hold at Deutsche Bank; tgt $27
    • Kenvue (KVUE) initiated with a Neutral at Citigroup; tgt $28
    • Kenvue (KVUE) initiated with a Neutral at Exane BNP Paribas; tgt $28
    • Kenvue (KVUE) initiated with a Neutral at Goldman; tgt $29
    • Kenvue (KVUE) initiated with an Outperform at RBC Capital Mkts; tgt $29
    • Kenvue (KVUE) initiated with an Overweight at JP Morgan; tgt $29
    • Paylocity (PCTY) initiated with an Equal Weight at Barclays; tgt $199
    • ShockWave Medical (SWAV) assumed with an Equal-Weight at Morgan Stanley; tgt $291
    • Steris (STE) initiated with an Equal-Weight at Morgan Stanley; tgt $206
    • Teleflex (TFX) assumed with an Equal-Weight at Morgan Stanley; tgt $261
    • Vertex Pharma (VRTX) initiated with an Outperform at William Blair; tgt $382
    • Viridian Therapeutics (VRDN) initiated with an Outperform at RBC Capital Mkts; tgt $44

>>> US Gapping down

Gapping down
In reaction to earnings/guidance
:

  • SKY -3.8%

Other news:

  • BGNE -11.2% (announces that BRUKINSA has been approved by Health Canada for the treatment of adult patients with chronic lymphocytic leukemia)
  • EFC -4.2% (acquires AAIC for $4.77 per share)
  • UL -1.6% (CFO informs Board of retirement in May 2024)
  • ELP -0.9% (started to structure a potential primary and/or secondary offering of common shares or units in connection with the process of dispersion of the share capital of the Company)
  • CPG -0.5% (provides update on Alberta wildfires; reaffirms FY23 guidance)

>>> US Gapping up

Gapping up
In reaction to earnings/guidance
:

  • GLNG +0.5%

Select airline stocks trading higher:

  • SAVE +1.1%, LUV +0.7%, JBLU +0.7%, UAL +0.6%, DAL +0.6%

Other news:

  • AAIC +51.3% (to be acquired by Ellington Financial (EFC) for $4.77 per share)
  • ETRN +26.4% (Mountain Valley natural gas pipeline approval in West Virginia)
  • LXRX +21.1% (announces FDA approval of INPEFA (sotagliflozin) for treatment of heart failure)
  • IOVA +19.7% (received FDA Acceptance of BLA for Lifileucel)
  • CCCC +12.3% (C4 Therapeutics and Betta Pharmaceuticals announced an exclusive licensing agreement for the development and commercialization of CFT8919 in Greater China)
  • AKBA +10.6% (FDA provides Akebia Therapeutics a path forward for Vadadustat)
  • COHR +9.4% (details May 2023 Restructuring Plan)
  • NFLX +4.8% (positive Barron's article)
  • NVDA +3.8% (announces DGX GH200 AI Supercomputer and several other product updates)
  • SMCI +3.8% (COMPUTEX keynote unveils company's Accelerate Everything Strategy for product innovation, manufacturing scale, and green technology)
  • MX +3.2% (announces plan to separate display and power businesses)
  • SONO +2.2% (wins $32.5 mln patent case against Google)
  • NWL +2% (announces restructuring and savings initiative that is intended to simplify and streamline its North American distribution network)
  • SHOP +1.8% (nominates former Salesforce co-CEO Bret Taylor to join its board of directors)
  • NNDM +1.7% (Stratasys Board of Directors unanimously rejects Nano Dimension's (NNDM) partial tender offer)
  • STNE +1.5% (promotes Mateus Scherer as new CFO)
  • MU +1.2% (Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo says US "won't tolerate" Micron (MU) chip ban)
  • BTE +1.2% (brought back onstream the full 24,000 boe/d of production that was shut-in as a result of the Alberta wildfires)

Analyst comments:

  • CHPT +5.2% (upgraded to Buy from Neutral at BofA Securities)
  • COIN +4.2% (upgraded to Overweight from Neutral at Atlantic Equities)
  • F +3.2% (upgraded to Buy from Hold at Jefferies)
  • SAM +1.4% (upgraded to Buy from Neutral at ROTH MKM)
  • HEI +0.9% (upgraded to Buy from Hold at Vertical Research)
  • LNT +0.8% (upgraded to Outperform from Market Perform at BMO Capital Markets)
  • STZ +0.8% (upgraded to Buy from Neutral at ROTH MKM)

OilPrice.com : Scientists Report Breakthrough With Very Low Cost Calcium Battery

Scientists Report Breakthrough With Very Low Cost Calcium Battery

  • Tohoku University researchers have managed to develop a prototype calcium metal battery.
  • The battery is capacable of 500 cycles of repeated charge-discharge.
  • Calcium is widely available and inexpensive, and has higher energy density potential than lithium-ion batteries.

Tohoku University researchers have recently developed a prototype calcium metal rechargeable battery capable of 500 cycles of repeated charge-discharge. Five hundred cycles is the benchmark for practical battery use. The breakthrough was made thanks to the development of a copper sulfide nanoparticle/carbon composite cathode and a hydride-based electrolyte.
With the compulsive sales of electric vehicles and grid-scale energy storage systems on the rise, the need to explore alternatives to lithium-ion batteries has never been greater.
The advancement is focused on the element calcium and now a prototype is in testing. Calcium (Ca) is the fifth most abundant element in earth’s crust, calcium is widely available and inexpensive, and has higher energy density potential than lithium ion batteries (LIB). Its properties are also thought to help accelerate ion transport and diffusion in electrolytes and cathode materials, giving it an edge over other LIB-alternatives such as magnesium and zinc.

But many hurdles remain in the way of Ca metal batteries’ commercial viability. The lack of an efficient electrolyte and the absence of cathode materials with sufficient Ca2+ storage capabilities have proved to be the main stumbling blocks.
Schematic of a prototype Ca metal battery. The battery comprises a Ca2+-storing positive electrode containing the CuS/C composite and a Ca plating/stripping negative electrode with a hydride-based electrolyte, Ca(CB11H12)2 in DME/THF. Image Credit: Tohoku University. Click both the press release and the open access study report for more images and information.
In 2021, some members of the current research group provided a solution to the former problem when they realized a new fluorine-free calcium electrolyte based on a hydrogen (monocarborane) cluster. The electrolyte demonstrated markedly improved electrochemical performances such as high conductivity and high electrochemical stabilities.
Kazuaki Kisu, assistant professor at Tohoku University’s Institute for Materials Research said, “For our current research, we tested the long-term operation of a Ca metal battery with a copper sulfide (CuS) nanoparticle/carbon composite cathode and a hydride-based electrolyte.”
Also a natural mineral, CuS has favorable electrochemical properties. Its layered structure enables it to store a variety of cations, including lithium, sodium and magnesium. It has a large theoretical capacity of 560 mAh g-1 – two to three times higher than present cathode materials for lithium-ion batteries.
Through nanoparticulation and compositing with carbon materials, Kisu and his colleagues were able to create a cathode capable of storing large amounts of calcium ions. When employed with the hydride-type electrolyte, they produce a battery with a highly stable cycling performance. The prototype battery maintained 92% capacity retention over 500 cycles based on the capacity of the 10th cycle.
The group is confident that their breakthrough will help advance research into cathode materials for Ca-based batteries. “Our study confirms the feasibility of Ca metal anodes for long-term operations, and we are hopeful the results will expedite the development of Ca metal batteries,” said Kisu.
***
When one thinks about low cost materials, calcium and its naturally occurring forms comes to mind really quickly. The theoretical potential is outstanding. Getting it to work is now a strong possibility.

Calcium based batteries might make electric vehicles a practical reality. At the moment the practicality is factually a niche, and a not particularly big one at that. Weight has to be reduced dramatically, cost come down by a factor of 5 or more, charge time immensely cut and safety improved such that they can be parked in a garage without the insurance company going nuts.
That makes this important news. Yes it's a new born technology, but over time the potential is simply huge and the demand for electrical storage grows by the second.
By Brian Westenhaus via Newenergyandfuel.com

OilPrice.com : OPEC Would Welcome Iran’s Return To The International Oil Market

OPEC Would Welcome Iran’s Return To The International Oil Market

OPEC will welcome the return of Iran to the international oil market once the U.S. lifts sanctions from Tehran, the secretary general of the cartel said.

"We believe that Iran is a responsible player amongst its family members, the countries in the OPEC group. I’m sure there will be good work together, in synchronization, to ensure that the market will remain balanced as OPEC has continued to do over the past many years," Haitham Al Ghais said during a visit to Tehran, as quoted by local media.
The Trump administration reimposed U.S. sanctions on Iran in a bid to put an end to its nuclear program back in 2016. The sanctions have specifically targeted, among other things, Iran’s oil and gas industry.

As a result of the U.S. punitive action, Iranian exports of oil and gas have become troubled although they never stopped completely as some U.S. legislators hoped they would because of the sanctions.

Since the sanctions were reimposed, Iran’s biggest oil buyer has been China, as well as some ally countries in the Middle East such as Syria.

In the past couple of years, there have been tentative attempts to get the United States and Iran to resolve their differences and have the sanctions lifted but talks have broken down repeatedly signaling some potentially unresolvable differences.
The strongest impetus for a resolution presented itself last year as oil and gas prices soared in the wake of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine but even that wasn’t enough to get the U.S. and Iran to agree on a scenario that would see the sanctions lifted.

Meanwhile, Iran and Saudi Arabia have been working to restore their diplomatic relations with the help of mediation from China. The two earlier this year agreed to reopen their respective embassies and forge closer economic ties.