>>> TradeGate Pre-Market Indications

DAX:
  • Infineon (IFX TH) +0.8%
    • Watch Europe Chip Stocks as TSMC Exceeds Profit Estimates
  • Siemens Energy (ENR TH) +0.6%
    • PGE Says Polimex, Siemens Win Bid to Build Rybnik Power Unit
  • Porsche SE (PAH3 TH) -0.5%
    • Porsche SE Cut to Neutral at Exane; PT 61 euros
  • Henkel (HEN3 TH) -1.2%
    • Henkel Cut to Sell at Deutsche Bank; PT 58 euros
  • Hannover Re (HNR1 TH) -1.8%
    • UBS cuts stock to stell from neutral: APA
MDAX:
  • Aroundtown (AT1 TH) +1.2%
  • ProSieben (PSM TH) +1.1%
  • Kion (KGX TH) -2.4%
    • Kion Cut to Neutral at JPMorgan; PT 40 euros
SDAX:
  • PVA TePla (TPE TH) +3.7%
    • PVA TePla Has Exciting Set-Up in 2023, Raised to Buy: Berenberg
  • CropEnergies (CE2 TH) +2.4%
  • MorphoSys (MOR TH) +2.3%
  • Suedzucker (SZU TH) +2.1%
    • Suedzucker 3Q Operating Profit Beats Estimates
  • Shop Apotheke (SAE TH) +1.7%
  • SMA Solar (S92 TH) -0.8%

>>> What to look at today - 12th of January 2023

Equities in Asia held a modest advance Thursday as wagers for a further softening of US inflation buoyed appetite for risk taking in global markets.  An index of the region’s stocks rose for a ninth time in 10 days as it headed for the highest level in about five months. A drop in Chinese shares pulled the gauge down from its earlier high, with selling evident on Hong Kong-listed technology companies after recent strength.  The yen rallied on a report that the Bank of Japan would look into the side effects of its ultra-loose policy. The yield on the nation’s benchmark 10-year bonds sat hard against the BOJ’s 0.5% ceiling, as traders remain wary of another shift from the central bank after Governor Haruhiko Kuroda took them by surprise in December when he doubled the amount yields could climb. A gauge of the dollar declined slightly as investors looked beyond the drumbeat of hawkish comments from Federal Reserve officials. Traders also appeared to be downplaying a potentially miserable stretch of earnings and the specter of a recession as they focus on the upcoming US consumer price index.  CPI will be scrutinized top to bottom, with much focus on core inflation — which excludes food and energy and is seen as a better indicator than the headline measure. The projected 5.7% increase would be well above the Fed’s goal, helping explain its intention of keeping rates higher for longer. But the year-over-year price growth would also show moderation. Futures for the Nasdaq 100 edged lower after the technology sector, one of the most-beaten down groups during the Fed’s tightening campaign, led gains among US shares on Wednesday. Contracts for the S&P 500 were little changed while those for the Euro Stoxx 50 rose about 0.4%
Inflation data for China showed factory-gate prices falling more than expected in December and consumer prices ticking up as the end of Covid Zero snarled manufacturing operations but eliminated mobility curbs on people. The offshore yuan fluctuated while remaining near Wednesday’s closing level. While Chinese assets have been top performers globally in recent months, many large foreign investors are wary of trusting the government given the regulatory shocks of 2022. oil steadied after five days of gains ahead of the US inflation figures and as China’s crude buying ramps up before the Lunar New Year holidays. Gold stayed in a holding pattern ahead of the data, which could determine whether its two-month uptrend continues.  US After Hours KBH -2.4% lower on earnings; DIS +1.3% as it names Mark Parker as Chairman; BW +3.7% higher on contract win.

Nikkei +0.01% Hang Seng -0.33% CSI -0.07% Shanghai -0.23% Shenzen -0.13%

Eur$ 1.0771 CNH 6.7639 CNY 6.7567 JPY 131.49 GBP 1.2165 CHF 0.9311 RUB 70.30 TRY 18.7772 WTI$ 77.46 +0.06% Gold 1,884.25 +0.46% BTC 18,226 +3.79% ETH 1,403 +4.56%

S&P -0.06% Nasdaq -0.09% EuroStoxx +0.24% FTSE +0.30% Dax +0.21% SMI +0.21%

Macro :
- Convertible Deals in Europe Are Making a Comeback: ECM Watch

Keep an eye on :
- ADL GY : Adler Real Estate Says KPMG Rejects Judicial Appointment
- ADJ GY : Adler Gets Sufficient Support for Alternative Bond Restructuring
- AKRBP NO : Aker BP Extends Alliance Pacts With Noble, Odfjell, Halliburton
- APPL US : Apple Working on Adding Touch Screens to Macs in Major Turnabout
- ARBN SW : Arbonia Warns on 2022 Margin After ‘Rapid Destocking’ in 4Q
- ASC LN : Asos Four-Month Sales £1.34B, Estimate £1.38B
- AV/ LN : £1.8 Trillion of Pensions Helped by Yields, and Aviva Benefits
- BAMI IM : JPMorgan Zeroed Its Stake in Banco BPM: Filing
- BOOZT US : Boozt Prelim 4Q Adjusted Ebit About SEK170M
- BOSN SW : Bossard FY Sales Beats Estimates
- CLN SW : Clariant Probed by SIX Exchange Regulation Over Ad hoc Info
- IAG LN : Spain Government Brokered IAG, Air Europa Meeting: Confidencial
- DTE GY : T-Mobile Is Said to Weigh Buying Ryan Reynolds’ Mint Mobile
- DIS US : Nelson Peltz Plans Proxy Fight Against Disney -- WSJ
- ENDUR NO : Endur Offering of 5.09m Shares Prices at NOK27.50/Share
- FAST NA : Fastned 4Q Revenue Related to Charging EU13.3M
- GLEN LN : Al Masane Al Kobra Signs Zinc, Copper Offtake Pact With Glencore
- IDS LN : ICO Says Royal Mail Made It Aware of Incident
- IFX GY : Infineon Signs New Silicon Materials Supply Deal With Resonac
- IRE IM : Iren May Sell Minority Stake in Gas Distribution Network: MF
- LOGN SW : Logitech's Margin May Shrink 500 Bps as It Cuts Guidance: React
- LTT IM : Apollo-Backed Gaming Firm Lottomatica Weighs $1 Billion IPO
- MUV2 GY : Munich Re Buyback Includes Third Tranche
- NOKIA FH : Nokia Core Networks Portfolio Compliant With GSMA Requirements
- OMV AV : OMV 4Q Refining Margin Beats Estimates
- PFE US : Lawmakers Urge Lowering Prices of Cancer Treatment Xtandi
- PPL US : Elliott Investment Said to Be Top 10 Investor in Utility PPL
- POLB LN : Poolbeg Pharma Plans Nasdaq Listing: Irish Independent
- RFG IM : Racing Force Offers EU10 Million Shares
- ROG SW : Roche Gets EU Approval of Xofluza for Use in Child Influenza
- SAB SM : Sabadell Minimum MREL Requirement Set at 22.22% of Risk Exposure
- SAN FP : Sanofi Ventures Gets Multi-Year Capital Commitment From Sanofi
- STOCKA FH : Stockmann: JC Switzerland’s Voting Stake Exceeds 15% Threshold
- SZU GY : Suedzucker 3Q Operating Profit Beats Estimates
- SQN SW : Swissquote Prelim FY Net Revenue Above CHF400M
- TIETO FH : Tietoevry Names Basware’s Klaus Andersen CEO of Banking Unit
- UBI FP : Ubisoft Sees FY Operating Loss After Game Launches Disappoint
- VACN SW : VAT Prelim FY Net Sales About CHF1.14B

>>> Europe : Brokers Upgrades & Downgrades - 12th of January 2023

>>> Up
* American Tower Raised to Buy at Deutsche Bank; PT $254
* Autoliv Raised to Outperform at Exane; PT $100
* BHP Raised to Buy at Berenberg; PT 3,100 pence
* Bluefield Solar Income Raised to Buy at Stifel
* DCC Raised to Outperform at RBC; PT 4,800 pence
* Moderna PT Raised to $220 from $150 at Argus
* Neoen Raised to Buy at Stifel; PT 42 euros
* Nestle Raised to Buy at Deutsche Bank; PT 120 Swiss francs
* Netflix Raised to Buy at Jefferies; PT $385
* Rio Tinto Raised to Equal-Weight at Barclays; PT 5,800 pence
* Schindler Raised to Overweight at Barclays; PT 225 Swiss francs
* Sodexo PT Raised to 114 euros from 105 euros at Citi
* TotalEnergies ADRs Raised to Outperform at Wolfe; PT $72~
* Voestalpine Raised to Overweight at Barclays; PT 35 euros

>>> Down
* AB InBev Cut to Hold at Deutsche Bank; PT 61 euros
* Anglo American Cut to Neutral at Credit Suisse
* Ashtead Cut to Sector Perform at RBC; PT 5,250 pence
* Axactor ASA Cut to Hold at Nordea
* Cofinimmo Cut to Hold at ING; PT 93 euros
* DuPont de Nemours Cut to Sector Weight at KeyBanc
* Fevertree Drinks Cut to Sell at Deutsche Bank; PT 780 pence
* First Quantum Minerals Cut to Underweight at Barclays; PT C$23
* GEA Group Cut to Equal-Weight at Barclays; PT 41 euros
* Henkel Cut to Sell at Deutsche Bank; PT 58 euros
* Kamux Cut to Accumulate at Inderes; PT 5.40 euros
* Kion Cut to Neutral at JPMorgan; PT 40 euros
* Lululemon PT Cut to $397 from $431 at Goldman
* Plastic Omnium Cut to Neutral at Exane; PT 17 euros
* Porsche SE Cut to Neutral at Exane; PT 61 euros
* Roku Cut to Underperform at Jefferies; PT $30
* Royal Unibrew Cut to Sell at Deutsche Bank; PT 390 kroner
* RS Group Cut to Sector Perform at RBC; PT 1,000 pence
* SAP Cut to Hold at CFRA
* Shell ADRs Cut to Peerperform at Wolfe
* Spotify Cut to Hold at Jefferies; PT $95
* Ubisoft Cut to Neutral at JPMorgan; PT 24 euros
* Unity Software Cut to Underperform at Jefferies

>>> Initiation
* DSV Rated New Buy at DNB Markets; PT 1,290 kroner
* EPRB IM Rated New Outperform at EnVent S.p.A.; PT 5 euros
* Focusrite Rated New Buy at Berenberg; PT 1,100 pence
* Fresnillo Assumed Equal-Weight at Morgan Stanley; PT 860 pence
* Pernod Ricard Resumed Buy at Citi; PT 217 euros
* PZ Cussons Rated New Buy at Deutsche Bank; PT 270 pence
* Sanofi Resumed Buy at Citi; PT 110 euros

>>> Call
* Berenberg Upbeat on Miners, BHP, Rio Upgraded; CS Cuts Anglo
* Ubisoft ADRs Slump After Weak Forecast, Citi’s Negative Comments
* PVA TePla Has Exciting Set-Up in 2023, Raised to Buy: Berenberg
* RBC Sees Tough Year For Business Services, Cuts Three Stocks
* Telenor ‘Unloved,’ But Can Improve Sentiment: Morgan Stanley

>>> US After Hours Summary: KBH -2.4% lower on earnings; DIS +1.3% as it names M

After Hours Summary: KBH -2.4% lower on earnings; DIS +1.3% as it names Mark Parker as Chairman; BW +3.7% higher on contract win

After Hours Gainers:

Companies trading higher in after hours in reaction to earnings/guidance: ORC +1%, PM +0.2%

Companies trading higher in after hours in reaction to news: BW +3.7% (wins contract to support Phillips 66 carbon dioxide capture system in UK), SGHC +3.5% (authorizes new $25 mln share repurchase program), KNDI +3.3% (names new CEO), CPA +2% (reports Dec traffic), ANGI +1.6% (reports December metrics), DIS +1.3% (elects Mark Parker as Chairman; board also recommends shareholders not support Trian's Nelson Peltz; also Peltz to mount proxy fight for a seat on board, according to WSJ), IVZ +1.2% (reports Dec AUM), AMZN +0.4% (another exec is departing gaming unit which has struggled to produce hits, according to Bloomberg), AMD +0.2% (names new CFO), ENFN +0.1% (names new board chair), PSTL +0.1% (provides update)

After Hours Losers:

Companies trading lower in after hours in reaction to earnings/guidance: KBH -2.4%, CEQP -2.4%, MRVL -0.8% (also names new CFO), PIII -0.7%, WTRG -0.1%

Companies trading lower in after hours in reaction to news: GMDA -2.7% (stock offering by selling shareholder), NDAQ -1.3% (reports December volumes), CSII -1.3% (enrolls first patient in Japan for Kaizen study), XM -0.8% (to eliminate 270 jobs, representing less than 5% of workforce), IAC -0.4% (reports December metrics), NKLA -0.4% (ALSN partners with NKLA to conduct testing of its EV), COIN -0.4% (to close most of its Japan operations, according to Financial Review), UMH -0.2% (increases dividend), BEN -0.1% (reports Dec AUM)

TechCrunch : OpenAI begins piloting ChatGPT Professional, a premium version of i

OpenAI begins piloting ChatGPT Professional, a premium version of its viral chatbot

OpenAI this week signaled it’ll soon begin charging for ChatGPT, its viral AI-powered chatbot that can write essays, emails, poems and even computer code. In an announcement on the company’s official Discord server, OpenAI said that it’s “starting to think about how to monetize ChatGPT” as one of the ways to “ensure [the tool’s] long-term viability.”
The monetized version of ChatGPT will be called ChatGPT Professional, apparently. That’s according to a waitlist link OpenAI posted in the Discord server, which asks a range of questions about payment preferences including “At what price (per month) would you consider ChatGPT to be so expensive that you would not consider buying it?”
The waitlist also outlines ChatGPT Professional’s benefits, which include no “blackout” (i.e. unavailability) windows, no throttling and an unlimited number of message with ChatGPT — “at least 2x the regular daily limit.” OpenAI says that those who fill out the waitlist form may be selected to pilot ChatGPT Professional, but that the program is in the experimental stages and won’t be made widely available “at this time.”

Image Credits: OpenAI

Despite controversy and several bans, ChatGPT has proven to be a publicity win for OpenAI, attracting major media attention and spawning countless memes on social media. Some investors are implementing ChatGPT in their workflows. Ryan Reynolds enlisted ChatGPT to write an ad for Mint Mobile, the mobile carrier he part-owns. And Microsoft will reportedly incorporate the AI behind ChatGPT into its Office suite and Bing.
ChatGPT had over a million users as of early December — an enviable user base by any measure. But it’s a pricey service to run. According to OpenAI co-founder and CEO Sam Altman, ChatGPT’s operating expenses are “eye-watering,” amounting to a few cents per chat in total compute costs. (ChatGPT is hosted in Microsoft’s Azure cloud.)

OpenAI is under pressure to turn a profit on products like ChatGPT ahead of a rumored $10 billion investment from Microsoft. OpenAI expects to make $200 million in 2023, a pittance compared to the more than $1 billion that’s been invested in the startup so far.
Semafor reported this week that Microsoft is looking to net a 49% stake in OpenAI, valuing the company at around $29 billion. Under the terms of the deal, Microsoft would receive three-quarters of OpenAI’s profits until it recovers its investment, with additional investors taking 49% and OpenAI retaining the remaining 2% in equity.
OpenAI has an unusual corporate structure, operating under a “capped-profit” model that limits backers’ returns to 100 times their investment — or possibly less in the future.

FT : Saudi Arabia launches mining fund in effort to reduce oil dependency

Saudi Arabia launches mining fund in effort to reduce oil dependency
Investments up to $15bn aim to secure access to minerals used in solar panels, electric cars and other industries


Saudi Arabia has launched a mining fund that plans to invest up to $15bn of capital in overseas assets according to people familiar with the details, as the country works to reduce its dependence on fossil fuels.

The venture, 51 per cent owned by Saudi state-owned miner Ma’aden, with the remainder owned by the country’s Public Investment Fund, will take non-operating minority stakes in mining projects internationally, the two companies said on Wednesday.

That will help Saudi Arabia, which is the world’s second-largest oil producer, to secure resources such as iron ore, copper, nickel and lithium for domestic mineral processing and other industrial activities like steelmaking.

The companies said that the fund’s initial capital would be $50mn and the two shareholders would provide just over $3bn “if additional funding is required”, according to a joint statement.

However, two people familiar with the fund’s plans said that Saudi Arabia has publicly downplayed the scale of the investment plans and that the $50mn represented its first year of working capital and the $3bn the amount intended for investment over the next 12 months.

Given the scale of projects in commodity markets, the fund is prepared to deploy more than $15bn of capital for investments over the coming years as suitable opportunities emerge, the people added. PIF declined to comment beyond the statement.

The fund has signed on Tarmo Haehnsen, formerly a senior executive at Anglo American, as its chief investment officer, according to two people with knowledge of the matter.

The new fund comes as the US and Europe race to catch up with China in securing access to critical minerals that are used in strategic manufacturing industries such as solar panels, wind turbines and electric cars.

The investments will provide “critical minerals to ensure supply security for domestic minerals downstream sectors and [position] Saudi Arabia as a key partner in global supply-chain resilience,” the companies said.

The fund has already had discussions with Brazilian mining group Vale about taking a stake in its base metals unit, which includes nickel, copper and cobalt assets, according to two people familiar with the details.

The strategy of the fund has parallels with Japanese trading houses, which took equity stakes in mining projects during the country’s postwar industrialisation to supply manufacturers.

Ma’aden, which is 67 per cent owned by PIF, will finance its share of the investment from its own resources, the companies said. It may also raise capital through a rights issue.

Also on Wednesday, Ma’aden said that it would buy a 9.9 per cent stake in Ivanhoe Electric, a US mineral exploration group backed by mining tycoon Robert Friedland, for $126mn, giving it access to geological surveying technology.

It also signed on the same day a joint venture agreement with Barrick Gold, the world’s second largest gold producer, to explore for minerals at the site of the Jabal Sayid copper mine.

FT : LVMH: heirs and spares should not detract from luxury growth prospects

LVMH: heirs and spares should not detract from luxury growth prospects
Pragmatic investors will focus on whether would-be dynasts are good at their jobs or not

Family successions can be fraught. Just look at the Windsors. Over in France, the Arnault family are tackling complexities of their own. Patriarch Bernard has made daughter Delphine chief executive of Dior. This is a key fashion brand of luxury behemoth LVMH, Europe’s largest company.

Criticism of so-called nepo babies may be inspired by envy, egalitarianism, or a bit of both. Pragmatic investors will focus on whether would-be dynasts are good at their jobs or not. The second question is whether their presence crowds out better-qualified non-family managers. The third, broader issue is whether family control reduces or enhances stability.

LVMH is allaying fears, judging from a small increase in the shares to a record high of about €774 for a market worth of €390bn. All Arnault’s children work in the business and are hopping up the ranks. Delphine joined the group in 2000.

LVMH’s heft makes it easier to attract outside talent. The real business news of the day was the promotion of Pietro Beccari — considered a rising star in the sector — to the top job at flagship brand Louis Vuitton.

Succession at LVMH does not appear imminent. Arnault is a sprightly 73 year old. Investors have shiny baubles to distract them. 2023 looks like a good year for luxury sales as Chinese consumer spending — long bottled up — pops like a cork. LVMH should capture more than its fair share of this.

Luxury is as Darwinian as the dynamics within business dynasties. Mega-brands invest heavily in marketing to drown out lesser brands. That gives them pricing power, which LVMH exploits to the hilt. Some 80 per cent of its handbags now cost more than €1,500 — up from just over half in 2014, according to Bernstein analysis. The cost of making the next item is small, meaning profits tend to grow faster than sales.

Indeed, on — admittedly bullish — Bernstein numbers, 2023 should see LVMH sales growth of 15 per cent and net profits up by more than a quarter. This would put the stock on some 20 times 2023 earnings. Growth is expected to moderate in coming years. But that does not look too steep for the market leader in a sector that tends to grow more than twice as fast as gross domestic product. Nepo babies are no reason to shy away from the stock.

>>> US Research Calls

Research Calls

  • Upgrades:
    • Blackstone (BX) upgraded to Overweight from Equal Weight at Wells Fargo; tgt raised to $95
    • Chemours (CC) upgraded to Buy from Neutral at BofA Securities; tgt raised to $40
    • Dow (DOW) upgraded to Neutral from Underperform at BofA Securities; tgt raised to $59
    • Eastman Chemical (EMN) upgraded to Buy from Neutral at BofA Securities; tgt raised to $108
    • Euronav (EURN) upgraded to Buy from Hold at JonesTrading; tgt $16
    • Evercore (EVR) upgraded to Buy from Neutral at Goldman; tgt raised to $125
    • Expedia Group (EXPE) upgraded to Outperform from Perform at Oppenheimer; tgt $120
    • Gaming and Leisure Properties (GLPI) upgraded to Buy from Hold at Truist; tgt raised to $60
    • Installed Building Products (IBP) upgraded to Buy from Hold at Deutsche Bank; tgt raised to $124
    • JinkoSolar (JKS) upgraded to Buy from Neutral at ROTH Capital; tgt raised to $70
    • Livent (LTHM) upgraded to Buy from Underperform at BofA Securities; tgt $26
    • Pan Am Silver (PAAS) upgraded to Outperform from Sector Perform at RBC Capital Mkts; tgt raised to $22
    • Pool (POOL) upgraded to Buy from Hold at Deutsche Bank; tgt $417
    • TopBuild (BLD) upgraded to Buy from Hold at Deutsche Bank; tgt raised to $227
    • TELUS International (TIXT) upgraded to Buy from Neutral at BofA Securities; tgt $26
    • Warner Bros. Discovery (WBD) upgraded to Buy from Neutral at Guggenheim; tgt $16.50
  • Downgrades:
    • Allegiant Travel (ALGT) downgraded to Neutral from Positive at Susquehanna; tgt $90
    • C.H. Robinson (CHRW) downgraded to Neutral from Overweight at JP Morgan; tgt lowered to $90
    • CarMax (KMX) downgraded to Underweight from Neutral at JP Morgan; tgt $60
    • Coinbase Global (COIN) downgraded to Underperform from Neutral at BofA Securities; tgt lowered to $35
    • Deliveroo plc (DROOF) downgraded to Underweight from Neutral at JP Morgan
    • Elme Communities (ELME) downgraded to Neutral from Buy at BTIG Research
    • Equity Residential (EQR) downgraded to Neutral from Buy at BTIG Research
    • Fortune Brands Innovations (FBIN) downgraded to Hold from Buy at Deutsche; tgt lowered to $61
    • Jefferies (JEF) downgraded to Neutral from Buy at Goldman; tgt $40
    • Keysight (KEYS) downgraded to Neutral from Buy at Goldman; tgt lowered to $189
    • Levi Strauss (LEVI) downgraded to Neutral from Buy at Citigroup; tgt lowered to $17
    • Masco (MAS) downgraded to Sell from Hold at Deutsche Bank; tgt $43
    • MeridianLink (MLNK) downgraded to Underweight from Equal Weight at Barclays; tgt lowered to $14
    • Moelis (MC) downgraded to Sell from Neutral at Goldman; tgt lowered to $37
    • Motorola Solutions (MSI) downgraded to Neutral from Outperform at Credit Suisse; tgt lowered to $270
    • Retail Opportunity Investments (ROIC) downgraded to Neutral from Buy at BTIG Research
    • SiteOne Landscape Supply (SITE) downgraded to Hold from Buy at Deutsche Bank; tgt lowered to $126
    • STMicroelectronics (STM) downgraded to Sell from Neutral at Goldman
    • Southwest Air (LUV) downgraded to Neutral from Positive at Susquehanna; tgt $40
    • XPeng (XPEV) downgraded to Neutral from Overweight at JP Morgan; tgt lowered to $9
    • XPO, Inc. (XPO) downgraded to Neutral from Overweight at JP Morgan; tgt lowered to $42
    • Watts Water Tech. (WTS) downgraded to Hold from Buy at Deutsche Bank; tgt lowered to $150
  • Others:
    • Autodesk (ADSK) initiated with a Buy at Berenberg; tgt $230
    • Aspen Tech (AZPN) initiated with a Hold at Berenberg; tgt $210
    • Bill.com (BILL) initiated with a Neutral at Mizuho; tgt $105
    • FTI Consulting (FCN) initiated with a Neutral at Goldman; tgt $167
    • Heritage-Crystal Clean (HCCI) initiated with a Buy at DA Davidson; tgt $40
    • Jack Henry (JKHY) initiated with an Outperform at William Blair
    • Oracle (ORCL) initiated with a Buy at Mizuho; tgt $116
    • Payoneer (PAYO) initiated with an Outperform at Wolfe Research; tgt $7
    • PTC (PTC) initiated with a Buy at Berenberg; tgt $155