FT : Dealmakers tackle rising rates with pitch to buyers: don’t touch the debt

Dealmakers tackle rising rates with pitch to buyers: don’t touch the debt
‘Portable capital structures’ avoid need to refinance in tough environment for corporate takeovers

Investment bankers who string together complex corporate takeovers have a new item on their checklists: avoid deal terms that force acquirers to refinance debt.

Keeping old borrowings on the books rather than rolling into new bonds and loans has become a priority for private equity groups and corporate buyers as interest rates rise and lending markets constrict. Because debt held over generally costs less, it has propped up valuations and made some megadeals possible in the toughest environment since the 2008 financial crisis.

“Buyers in this market are seeking to keep the existing debt in place whenever possible,” said a senior adviser involved in one of the largest such deals of last year.

Arrangements to preserve lower-cost debt were a hallmark of several big transactions announced in late 2022, including Kroger’s proposed $24.6bn takeover of rival grocer Albertsons; Brookfield’s $7.9bn sale of Westinghouse; and private equity firm BDT Capital’s near-$4bn purchase of grill-maker Weber.

Among the approaches are so-called “portable capital structures”, which allow sales of large stakes in companies, or even complete takeovers, to be executed with just enough cash to pay for a business’s equity. Buyers can avoid having to raise extra money to pay off the debts of their targets, as is typically the case.

In the Albertsons deal, which is being reviewed by US regulators, most of the $7bn in lower-cost debt on the target’s books will be transferable. Kroger’s strong debt rating means it will not need to repay the earlier debts, as legal covenants would have required if the buyer had a weaker financial profile.

“Most capital structures that were executed prior to last year’s [market] sell-off offer significant value to a buyer, given in today’s market a financing would be materially . . . more expensive,” said Jeff Greenip, head of leveraged finance at Jefferies, the investment bank.

Many deals have also been structured to avoid triggering “change of control” provisions that force buyers to repay all outstanding debts and put new financing in place.

In its sale of Westinghouse, a unit of Canada’s Brookfield Asset Management sold a 49 per cent stake in the nuclear services company to uranium miner Cameco. However, since another unit of Brookfield that manages renewable energy investments purchased the remaining 51 per cent controlling stake, the transaction did not lead to a change of corporate control.

The structure allowed Cameco to simply purchase its minority stake for $2.2bn in cash, just less than half of Westinghouse’s $4.5bn equity valuation. Westinghouse’s $3.4bn in debt stayed in place, allowing one of the biggest transactions of the fourth quarter to sidestep frozen credit markets.

“Advisers are modelling out transactions, and there is a certain breakpoint above which refinancing at current rates make it not a good opportunity for them to pursue,” said one person involved in the deal.

So-called secondary transactions are another type of arrangement, in which new investors are brought in to take minority stakes that do not trigger a change in control.

Recent secondary transactions include Bain Capital’s sale of a large minority stake in warehouse operator Imperial Dade to Advent International at a near $6bn valuation, and Partners Group’s sale of a 50 per cent stake in pipeline services company USIC to Kohlberg & Co for $4.1bn. Neither involved new debt, according to people briefed on the deals.

Since the target companies were able to maintain the low-cost financing they raised when interest rates were low, sellers received valuations that were not as affected by higher financing costs that have swept through the market.

The yield on the average single-B rated US corporate bond — a credit rating that often includes many risky leveraged buyouts — has risen to 8.28 per cent, from 4.74 per cent at the start of last year, data from Ice Data Services showed. And that probably understates the true cost, given that financing markets are mostly shut to big private equity takeovers. The cost to borrow from direct lenders in private markets in some cases has surpassed 12 or 13 per cent, according to investors.

“Selling a business with debt remaining in place is a real asset,” said an executive involved in one of these transactions.

However, portable structures are viewed with scepticism by funds that invest in corporate credit. Fund managers are wary of acquisitions that might result in them holding debt that becomes riskier than when they first agreed to buy it.

“What you are nervous about is that someone will buy the company and make the capital structure substantially [more leveraged]” as a target company’s debt shifts on to the acquirer’s books, said John Yovanovic, the head of high yield portfolio management at PineBridge Investments.

Creditors of Latin American telecoms group Millicom International Cellular saw the value of their bonds slip last week after the Financial Times reported that private equity giant Apollo was in talks to buy the business. Apollo, known for running its portfolio companies with relatively high levels of debt, plans to leave Millicom’s existing debts in place.

>>> US After Hours Summary: META +18.7% shocks investors with strong earnings, online ad peers higher in sympathy; ALGN +15.6%, ELF +13.3% also higher on earnings; CHX -8.6%, MXL -7.5%, QRVO -4.4% lower on earnings


After Hours Summary: META +18.7% shocks investors with strong earnings, online ad peers higher in sympathy; ALGN +15.6%, ELF +13.3% also higher on earnings; CHX -8.6%, MXL -7.5%, QRVO -4.4% lower on earnings

After Hours Gainers:

Companies trading higher in after hours in reaction to earnings/guidance: META +18.7% (also authorizes new $40 bln share repurchase program), ALGN +15.6%, ELF +13.3%, AFG +3.8% (also declares $4 special dividend), ALGT +3.1%, MCK +3%, KRC +2.3%, HOLX +2.1%, PTC +1.4%, LFUS +0.6%, AVT +0.5%, MTH +0.4%, THG +0.2%, RRX +0.1%, SLM +0.1%

Companies trading higher in after hours in reaction to news: PINS +4% (in sympathy with strong META earnings), TTD +3.6% (in sympathy with strong META earnings), GOOG +3.5% (in sympathy with strong META earnings), FLEX +3% (Nextracker unit announces IPO launch), MGNI +2.9% (in sympathy with strong META earnings), APPS +2.7% (in sympathy with strong META earnings), PUBM +2% (in sympathy with strong META earnings), PLTR +1.2% (announces $50 mln expansion with SOMPO Holdings), CRK +1.2% (reports oil & gas reserves), COST +1.2% (reports Jan comps), ROKU +1.2% (in sympathy with strong META earnings), STNE +0.9% (sells stake in Banco Inter), NFLX +0.3% (in sympathy with strong META earnings), MRK +0.1% (COVID-19 pill linked to new virus mutations, but MRK disputes this, according to Bloomberg), WFC +0.1% (files for $93 bln mixed securities shelf offering)

After Hours Losers:

Companies trading lower in after hours in reaction to earnings/guidance: CHX -8.6%, MOD -7.9%, MXL -7.5%, CTVA -5.5%, BHE -4.6%, GL -4.5%, QRVO -4.4%, ALL -2.9%, SITM -2.5%, CHRW -2.1%, AFL -2%, MTG -2%, NTGR -1.8%, MET -1.3%, TTEK -1.3%, DXC -1.2%, KLIC -0.3%, CCS -0.2%, EGHT -0.2%, CLB -0.1%, ENVA -0.1%, MUSA -0.1%, UGI -0.1%

Companies trading lower in after hours in reaction to news: VERA -9.1% (commences $75 mln public offering), ROIV -5.3% (commences $150 mln public offering), ANET -2.7% (META to lower cap-ex spend), SNDR -0.1% (increases dividend and authorizes $150 mln stock buyback plan), HWKN -0.1% (increases dividend, also reports earnings), ALEX -0.1% (promotes COO to be new CEO)

>>> US Close Dow +0,02% S&P 1,05% Nasdaq +2%


Closing Stock Market Summary

Today's trade looked a lot different at the open compared to where things ended up. The main indices moved mostly sideways, pinned below their flat lines, for the majority of the session as investors anxiously awaited the FOMC policy decision at 2:00 p.m. ET and Fed Chair Powell's press conference at 2:30 p.m. ET. 

The market saw some whipsaw action immediately following the FOMC's unanimous decision to raise the target range for the fed funds rate by 25 basis points to 4.50-4.75%, as expected. The general tone shifted markedly, however, when Fed Chair Powell started speaking at 2:30 p.m. ET.  

Mr. Powell acknowledged that the "Full effects of rapid tightening so far have yet to be felt and we have more work to do." He indicated that core services inflation is still running too high, which creates a basis for ongoing rate hikes. Overall, though, Mr. Powell was generally encouraging about the emerging signs of disinflation. 

Importantly for market participants, he did not go out of his way to shoot down the recent rally effort by condemning loosening financial conditions and maintained that he thinks there is a path to getting inflation back down to 2.0% without a really significant economic decline or significant increase in unemployment.

The stock market surged to session highs during the press conference before ultimately pulling back and settling below those levels. The main indices all closed in positive territory, led by the Nasdaq with a 2.0% gain. The S&P 500 for its part closed above the 4,100 level.

Just about everything came along for the steep rise, but mega cap leadership was integral to index level gains. The Vanguard Mega Cap Growth ETF (MGK) closed with a 1.9% gain versus a 1.0% gain in the Invesco S&P 500 Equal Weight ETF (RSP) and a 1.1% gain in the S&P 500. 

Semiconductors were another pocket of strength in the market today following a better-than-expected earnings report and better-than-feared outlook from Advanced Micro Devices (AMD 84.64, +9.49, +12.6%). The PHLX Semiconductor Index rose 5.2% by the close.

Ten of the 11 S&P 500 sectors closed with a gain, led by information technology (+2.3%), consumer discretionary (+1.9%), and communication services (+1.3%). The energy sector (-1.9%) was the lone holdout in negative territory as oil prices continued to retreat today. WTI crude oil futures fell 2.7% to $76.82/bbl. 

Treasuries rallied following the FOMC decision and subsequent press conference. The 2-yr note yield, which is most sensitive to changes in the fed funds rate, fell ten basis points to 4.11%. The 10-yr note yield fell 13 basis points to 3.40%. The U.S. Dollar Index fell 0.9% to 101.18.

  • Nasdaq Composite: +12.9% YTD
  • Russell 2000: +11.3% YTD
  • S&P Midcap 400: +10.9% YTD
  • S&P 500: +7.3% YTD
  • Dow Jones Industrial Average: +2.9% YTD

Reviewing today's economic data:

  • Weekly MBA Mortgage Applications Index -9.0%; Prior 7.0%
  • January ADP Employment Change 106K (consensus 170K); Prior was revised to 253K from 235K
  • January IHS Markit Manufacturing PMI - Final 46.9; Prior 46.8
  • December Construction Spending -0.4% (consensus 0.0%); Prior was revised to 0.5% from 0.2%
    • The key takeaway from the report is that new single family construction continued to decline, clipped by higher interest rates that are making construction projects more expensive to finance at a time when broader economic activity is slowing due in part to the higher interest rates.
  • January ISM Manufacturing Index 47.4% (consensus 48.0%); Prior 48.4%
    • The key takeaway from the report is that manufacturing activity contracted in January for the third straight month, demonstrating that the cumulative effect of rate hikes around the globe is adversely impacting demand, evidenced by the fifth straight contraction in the new orders index.
  • December JOLTS - Job Openings 11.012 mln; Prior was revised to 10.440 mln from 10.458 mln

Market participants will receive the following economic data tomorrow:

  • 8:30 ET: Weekly Initial Claims (consensus 201,000; prior 186,000), Continuing Claims (prior 1.675 mln), preliminary Q4 Productivity (consensus 2.5%; prior 0.8%), and preliminary Q4 Unit Labor Costs (consensus 1.5%; prior 2.4%)
  • 10:00 ET: December Factory Orders (consensus 2.2%; prior 1.0%)
  • 10:30 ET: Weekly natural gas inventories (prior -91 bcf)

Cardinal Health (CAH), ConocoPhillips (COP), Merck (MRK), Bristol-Myers (BMY), Honeywell (HON), Eli Lilly (LLY), and Estee Lauder (EL) are among the more notable names reporting earnings ahead of tomorrow's open. 

FT : Bill Gates loves trash

Bill Gates loves trash
A big $28bn bet on a dirty future

Well, not Bill Gates per se, but his family office, Cascade. And not trash in the metaphorical sense of very speculative assets but actual, honest-to-God trash. Or trash management at least.

Oxford University’s Martin Schmaltz has drawn our attention to the somewhat weird allocations of Gates’s private investment firm, which, depending on your source, seems to manage either $70bn, $120bn or $170bn.

Here’s what Refinitiv lists as Cascade’s 10 biggest position in dollar terms.


The combined $16bn holdings of Republic Services and Waste Management — the two biggest waste disposal companies in the US — make up almost half of Cascade’s disclosed equity portfolio.

If you include water purification and pest control giant Ecolab as kinda in the same business (getting rid of unwanted stuff, whether germs, garbage or bedbugs) then the sector accounts for 52.5 per cent of Cascade’s public book, or $21.1bn in total.

That’s not all! The actual Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation — which owns Gates’s remaining Microsoft shares — owns another $5.6bn stake in Waste Management, $703mn in Ecolab and $290mn in Waste Connections, a different trash disposal company. So that’s $27.69bn in total for the sector.

Some caveats are in order. All these holdings are mostly from filings made in 2021-22, so there may be some changes (but neither Cascade nor the Foundation are high turnover investors). There will be other stuff that doesn’t need to be disclosed, so this will never be more than a partial snapshot. Cascade also owns most of the Four Seasons Hotels and Resorts, for example.

Still, it’s an interesting portfolio. It basically looks like a massive near-$28bn bet on a grimy future where sanitation will be the in-demand service. Mad Max, but with even more garbage.

Cascade has been managed by Michael Larson since 1994. He’s kept remarkably under the radar, with the exception of a 1999 article in Fortune, and a less flattering NYT piece in 2021 on the “culture of fear at the firm that manages Bill Gates’s fortune”.

The other top Cascade holdings are also a bit bizarre for a technology billionaire’s family office. Agricultural machinery company John Deere and Diageo make up the rest of the top five, while further down we find Canada’s national railway system; car seller AutoNation; Spanish construction company FCC; Otter Tail, a Minnesota utility, and Ginkgo Bioworks, a biotech SPAC.

Last one excepted it’s all very old-economy, which appears to be the long-term strategy. Gates’s biggest UK investments, for example, have been in retailer Carpetright, jet servicing group Signature Aviation and Bunzl, a distributor of disposable cutlery. Given the still-big chunk of Microsoft shares sitting in the Foundation’s books, perhaps low-tech is the point?

FT : Vodafone/Elliott: activist seeks an opportunistic gain from tower sale

Vodafone/Elliott: activist seeks an opportunistic gain from tower sale
US activist’s gambit depends on German securities law protecting minorities from premature squeeze-outs

Nick Read riled shareholders with efforts to tame the multi-country hydra that is Vodafone. He was ousted. Interim replacement Margherita Della Valle says the UK-based mobile operator “can do better”. That is certainly Elliott Management’s view of the complex sale of the Vantage Towers subsidiary led by Read. The US activist has taken an exposure of more than 5 per cent to Vantage stock.

The unexpected intervention underlines the importance of scenario planning for other would-be dealmakers.

Vodafone split off and listed telecom tower group Vantage in Germany in 2021. Infrastructure with reliable incomes merited high valuations because rates were low. But after the market worth peaked at about €16.5bn last spring, Vantage stock dropped by a quarter as rates moved up.

The valuation returned to previous highs thanks to the partial sale plan. Vodafone would participate in a Vantage joint venture with investors including KKR, and General Infrastructure Partners. The deal requires the JV owners to buy out 18 per cent held by minority investors. They would receive €32 a share.

Elliott’s gambit depends on German securities law protecting minorities from premature squeeze-outs.

The JV controls about 89 per cent of Vantage, but not the required 95 per cent. If Elliott does not sell, Vodafone and its partners can still operate Vantage, under a “domination agreement”. But that would allow Elliott to bring German litigation requiring a revaluation of Vantage.

This legal process lasts at least five years. Under German law, Elliott would be likely to receive compensation in lieu of dividends set at 5 per cent a year above German short-term rates, currently slightly more than 1.6 per cent.

A court might or might not bump up the Vantage valuation. If Vodafone and its JV partners do not fancy waiting, they may have to pay Elliott and other minorities more for their shares, currently valued at about €800mn.

Read might have foreseen Elliott’s intervention, given that it did something similar at Kabel Deutschland. But foresight does not appear to have been his strong point.