NASA will launch a Mars mission on Blue Origin’s New Glenn
NASA is planning a science mission to Mars that will ride up aboard a New Glenn — Blue Origin’s first big government contract for the as-yet-untested launch vehicle.
New Glenn is the much, much larger sibling of the suborbital New Shepard rocket that so many celebrities and rich folks have gone to the edge of space in. Announced in 2016, the launch vehicle would compete with SpaceX’s Falcon Heavy and other heavy-lift options. But 6 years later, we have yet to see a New Glenn in one piece, let alone ready to launch a Mars mission.
The first flight for New Glenn was scheduled for late 2021, but that date was “refined” earlier that year, purportedly because a contract with the Pentagon had fallen through. Q4 of 2022 was the next window, but obviously that’s come and gone. I’ve asked for updated timing.
The launch contract is through the Venture-Class Acquisition of Dedicated and Rideshare (VADR) program at NASA, which early last year assigned a maximum of $300 million to be split among 13 companies for launch services of various kinds. Everyone who’s anyone is on the list there, essentially providing a low-cost option for noncritical missions.
“These small satellites and Class D payloads tolerate relatively high risk and serve as an ideal platform for technical and architecture innovation,” wrote NASA at the time of the award. In other words, we’d certainly rather they didn’t blow up, but at this price who’s arguing?
The lucky mission to be awarded a spot on a New Glenn is Escapade, a dual-craft Martian magnetosphere study that, funnily enough, is being designed and built by launch rival Rocket Lab. (They don’t really overlap yet, in fact, but they are nominally competitors.)
The notional launch date is in 2024, but those tend to slip, especially when the rocket they’re supposed to go up on is still kind of theoretical.
Rocket Lab isn’t mad, though. “The size of the spacecraft and ESCAPADE’s mission requirements meant the mission is unsuitable for launch on Electron,” the company told TechCrunch.
And for a refresher on the mission: “The pair of Photons will conduct an 11-month interplanetary cruise before inserting themselves into elliptical orbits around Mars to understand the structure, composition, variability, and dynamics of Mars’ unique hybrid magnetosphere – which will also support crewed exploration programs like Artemis through improved solar storm prediction.”
New Glenn may not be flying yet, but it does have plenty of interest, most prominently from Blue Origin’s friends at Kuiper, Amazon’s communication satellite constellation company. They ordered 12 last year, which should keep Blue’s new Huntsville facility operating for the foreseeable future.
Adidas: brand set to lose more ground as Yeezy losses widen
Puma and Nike will remain a more comfortable fit for investors
New chief executive Bjørn Gulden did more than throw out the kitchen sink at Adidas: he booted it clear out of the field. The former head of Puma delivered a hefty profit warning ahead of unveiling plans next month to fix the trainer maker’s brand. The German company continues to reel from its failed collaboration with Kanye West. It severed the link after the rapper made antisemitic remarks and behaved inappropriately in meetings.
An operating loss of at least €200mn is expected this year. A full writedown of West’s Yeezy branded inventory would widen losses to €700mn, unless Yeezy gear is repurposed. That is unlikely.
Former boss Kasper Rørsted bet big on Yeezy to revive the flagging brand’s fortunes. The loss of Yeezy sales is likely to lop 5 per cent off Adidas’s revenues this year. But the company expects a high single-digit decline in revenues across its businesses.
The additional fall reflects the impact of inflation and debt costs eating into consumers’ disposable incomes. The reverberations of this forecast spread to Puma shares which fell 5 per cent.
Adidas shares, which fell 12 per cent on Friday, have underperformed Puma by a tenth since West’s racist comments last year. Over three years, that gap widens to almost 40 per cent. Relative falls against Nike are larger still.
The Yeezy partnership was highly profitable. It generated a 40 per cent operating margin after royalties. That went some way to masking the underperformance of the rest of the business. Its operating profitability is about 4 per cent, thinks Jefferies. That is about one-third of the operating margin that Nike is thought to have achieved last year.
Adidas will be doing well if it can restore sales to 2022 levels by the end of 2024. Assuming a 2 per cent net margin, that implies a valuation of almost 60 times 2024 earnings per share. Puma and Nike, trading on 20 and 30 times 2024 earnings respectively, will remain a more comfortable fit for investors’ portfolios.
La CDC vend son chalet de Courchevel 65 millions d'euros à Stéphane Courbit
Le grand argentier de l'Etat vient de se séparer d'un établissement à Courchevel, auquel ses agents pouvaient accéder depuis plus d'un demi-siècle. Selon les informations de La Lettre A, l'acquéreur serait le producteur Stéphane Courbit. Cette cession clôt dix-huit mois de passe d'armes avec les syndicats de la CDC, opposés à sa vente.
Edition du 10/02/2023 Lecture 2 minutes Alexandre Berteau, Robin Carcan
Un actif immobilier de moins à gérer pour la Caisse des dépôts et consignations (CDC). Le chalet Les Florineiges, doté de 52 chambres et situé dans la station Courchevel (Savoie), a été vendu pour la somme de 65 millions d'euros à un investisseur dont l'identité a été tenue secrète par l'état-major de la CDC. Selon les informations de La Lettre A, il s'agit du producteur et homme d'affaires Stéphane Courbit, le patron de LOV Group. Familier de "Courch", il participe depuis plusieurs années au Monopoly alpin aux côtés de Bernard Arnault, du fondateur de Free, Xavier Niel, ou encore du créateur de l'enseigne Grand Frais, Denis Dumont. Contacté via l'agence de communication Image 7, LOV Group a démenti être le repreneur du chalet.
Cette vente est la réponse à la garantie donnée - et respectée par le DG de la CDC, Eric Lombard, aux syndicats depuis le début des négociations fin 2021. Le grand argentier de l'Etat a veillé à ne pas faire tomber un nouveau chalet dans le giron du "Kourchevelovo", le petit nom donné par les Russes à Courchevel (LLA du 31/08/22). Le chalet réparti sur deux bâtiments est à vocation sociale depuis les années 1960 : les agents de l'établissement public avaient l'habitude d'y passer leurs vacances. Cette caractéristique devra être maintenue par Stéphane Courbit. L'appel d'offres de la CDC exigeait "un positionnement 4 étoiles permettant d'introduire une diversité par rapport aux établissements luxe voisins".
Une épine immobilière retirée du pied
Ce changement de propriétaire est à l'image de l'évolution de la station de ski. Situé à Courchevel 1850, partie la plus huppée de la station, l'hôtel n'est qu'à quelques dizaines de mètres du Cheval Blanc, propriété de Bernard Arnault (LVMH), lui-même collé aux Airelles, palace appartenant à un certain... Stéphane Courbit (LLA du 21/01/22). La structure à majorité de bois et aux toits en tôle nervurée des Florineiges ne manque pas de trancher avec le style des palaces voisins.
Chose sûre, ce dossier a pollué pendant dix-huit mois une partie des relations entre la direction et les cinq organisations syndicales représentatives de la CDC. Les deux parties siègent au sein de l'association qui joue le rôle de comité d'entreprise pour l'établissement public. Une première piste avait été évoquée fin 2021, à savoir la possible reprise de cet actif immobilier par la Compagnie des Alpes, le leader mondial des parcs de loisirs, elle-même filiale à 100 % de la CDC. Cette proposition s'est cependant rapidement révélée infaisable. Contactée, la CDC n'a pas réagi à nos sollicitations.
Chemours misses by $0.10, beats on revs; guides FY23 EPS in-line (33.48 -1.45)
- Reports Q4 (Dec) net of breakeven, excluding non-recurring items, $0.10 worse than the S&P Capital IQ Consensus of $0.10; revenues fell 15.0% year/year to $1.34 bln vs the $1.27 bln S&P Capital IQ Consensus.
- Co issues in-line guidance for FY23, sees EPS of $3.80-4.29, excluding non-recurring items, vs. $4.06 S&P Capital IQ Consensus.
- "Our outlook contemplates a weaker start to 2023 with conditions improving in the second half of the year and continued secular growth in key parts of our TSS and APM businesses. Longer term, we continue to focus on improving the earnings profile of our TT business, while investing to capture growth from mega-trends underpinning TSS and APM."
Early premarket gappers
- Gapping up:
- AYX +10.2%, YELP +9.7%, LGF.A +9.1%, NET +6.9%, BE +6.5%, INDI +5.7%, CRSR +5.4%, SVM +5.2%, REG +5%, CUZ +4.7%, DXCM +4.4%, MODG +4.3%, RICK +3.4%, TEX +3%, VCTR +2.6%, SPSC +2.5%, ROAD +2.4%, VTR +2%, CTRE +2%, MSI +1.9%, PRLB +1.9%, RIG +1.8%, AZUL +1.8%, EQR +1.8%, RHI +1.6%, AB +1.6%, AMED +0.9%, BHF +0.8%
- Gapping down:
- LYFT -32.9%, YELL -23.1%, APPH -18.2%, PHAT -17.9%, ASPS -13.6%, BARK -12.5%, KN -7.2%, DOCS -6.4%, ONTO -4.9%, COUR -4.7%, VRSN -3.9%, UBER -3.6%, NWSA -3.4%, OSCR -3.2%, TRNO -3.1%, HMC -3%, WT -2.7%, BEN -2.7%, ABNB -2.6%, PRO -2.6%, AMC -2.4%, EXPE -2.2%, MHK -2.1%, MUSA -2%, RBC -2%, FTCI -1.8%, MSFT -1.7%, OFC -1.7%, FBP -1.4%, DASH -1.4%, AGRO -1.3%, FLO -1.1%, IVZ -1%, BKNG -1%, MTD -1%, GLPG -0.9%, TSM -0.9%, MGA -0.9%
Putin has ‘lost the energy war’, top trader claims as he ends bets on high gas price
Pierre Andurand says Europe has weaned itself off Russian natural gas and is unlikely to return to it
Russian president Vladimir Putin has “lost the energy war” and the worst of the European gas and power crisis has passed, according to Pierre Andurand, one of the world’s top-performing traders in the sector.
Andurand, whose energy focused hedge funds have enjoyed three bumper years of returns during the coronavirus pandemic, said he had closed out all his positions in natural gas markets because last year’s price surge to record levels was unlikely to be repeated, with Europe learning rapidly to live without Russian gas.
Deep cuts to Russian gas exports in retaliation for western support for Ukraine drove the European benchmark price above €300 a megawatt hour in August, more than 10 times its normal level. But in recent months it has tumbled back to about €50/MWh — still historically high but far more manageable for European economies mired in a cost of living crisis.
“I think Putin lost the energy war,” Andurand said in an interview with the Financial Times. “Very high natural gas and power prices in Europe were extremely bad for the world economy but now they have come back to a more reasonable level. If gas prices stay here there will be much less worry about inflation and interest rates rises. There’s no more fear of an energy crisis.
“Now that Europe is getting used to living without Russian gas why would they ever go back?” he added.
If correct, the French kick-boxing enthusiast’s call spells the end of one of the most lucrative hedge fund trades of recent years. Some managers made significant profits from rocketing European gas prices after Russia began squeezing supplies to Europe in 2021 before slashing exports after its full-scale invasion of Ukraine last February.
Andurand, whose firm Andurand Capital manages $1.4bn in assets, saw his Commodities Discretionary Enhanced fund gain some 650 per cent from the start of 2020 until the end of last year. The former Goldman Sachs and Vitol energy trader made his name by calling many of the big moves in oil and other energy commodities over the past two decades, including oil prices turning negative during the early stages of the coronavirus pandemic.
Andurand, whose fund is down 3 per cent so far in 2023, said Putin had erred in cutting gas exports to Europe last year, as although he succeeded in driving prices higher temporarily he had underestimated buyers’ ability to adapt.
“I think it was a massive miscalculation over who had the leverage by Putin, in the same way he miscalculated how Ukraine would fight back and the west would be united,” Andurand said.
“Russia has lost its biggest customer forever, and it will take at least a decade to bring enough pipelines [to redirect those gas sales] to Asia. Once Russia can only sell gas to China, Beijing will be in a position to decide the price.”
While Andurand argued the gas and power crisis was coming to an end, he still said there was the potential for big moves in the commodity for which he is best known. Oil prices, he said, had fallen too far in recent months and were set to rally as China’s economic rebound from the end of its zero-Covid policies accelerates.
Oil could hit $140 a barrel later in 2023, Andurand said, arguing that the market is taking too short-term a view, both because of losses suffered last year and also due to the growing dominance of multi-manager and quant hedge funds in it.
“The reopening of China is going to lead to a lot more oil demand growth than expected,” Andurand said, adding he had scaled back oil positions in the second half of last year as prices fell, but had upped his bets in mid-December.
“It might take a couple of months for the market to recognise the scale of the demand increase we’re seeing,” he added, arguing that Chinese-led global consumption could rise by as much as 4mn barrels a day this year compared with just over 1mn b/d average annual growth normally.
“That would mean really large inventory draws and the market will get very tight,” Andurand said, adding that $140 was “not a crazy high price” once adjusted for inflation as oil’s all-time peak of $147 a barrel was 15 years ago.
Oil briefly surged to $139 a barrel last year shortly after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, but has fallen back to $83 a barrel after it became clear the effect of western sanctions on the volume of Moscow’s oil exports had been limited.
Andurand said he was not counting on the recent tightening of western sanctions on Russia to boost the price as he predicted the measures were unlikely to remove too many barrels from the market, with Moscow choosing to sell its oil at a discount to attract new customers in Asia.
“I don’t want to bet on a large supply disruption from Russia as they have shown a willingness to move the barrels even if at very low prices,” Andurand said.
“My base case is we won’t have a major supply disruption from Russia and I’m focusing more on what China and Asia’s reopening means overall.”