WSJ ; A Saudi Defense Contractor Courted Russia and China. Then, Its U.S. Busine

A Saudi Defense Contractor Courted Russia and China. Then, Its U.S. Business Partners Fled.
Failed talks between RTX and a Saudi defense firm show the kingdom’s difficulties in establishing its own military industry

RIYADH, Saudi Arabia—American defense giant RTX and a Saudi weapons firm were heading toward a multibillion-dollar deal when it was abruptly called off early this year. The reason, say people familiar with the talks, was RTX’s concerns that its Saudi partner’s companies were pursuing business with sanctioned Chinese and Russian entities.

That unease was a deciding factor for an advisory board of retired American military officers to resign from the Saudi company, Scopa Defense, the people said. Scopa fired its American chief executive who had raised the sanctions concerns with his company’s owner and U.S. officials. And now other major Western defense companies are reconsidering early-stage agreements primarily because of the concerns around engagement with Russian and Chinese entities, the people said.

The failed talks with RTX, formerly known as Raytheon Technologies, demonstrate a challenge Saudi Arabia faces in pursuing diplomatic and business relationships with China and Russia that Washington says jeopardize U.S. national security. Doing business with sanctioned companies could undermine U.S. efforts to squeeze Russia and China financially and heighten the risks that Western companies would face sanctions themselves. It also raises the specter of Moscow and Beijing obtaining secret U.S. military technology.

The breakdown of RTX-Scopa talks also shows the challenges for countries that want to maintain relationships with both the U.S. and its top global rivals when Washington prefers its partners and allies to take sides.

Saudi Arabia was once firmly in the Western camp, but since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, it has expanded ties with other powers, managing the oil market in alignment with Moscow and entering discussions with Chinese companies to help build its nascent nuclear program. The Biden administration has said it doesn’t want Saudi links with those countries to stray into military cooperation.

The oil-rich kingdom’s courtship of Russia and China also threatens ambitious plans to build its own military industry after decades as a top global-arms importer. Saudi Arabia’s strategy so far has been to join with defense firms from the U.S. and other North Atlantic Treaty Organization countries, which have sold the Saudis most of their current arsenal of defense systems.

Scopa’s owner, Mohamed Alajlan, chairs the Saudi-Chinese Business Council and is the scion of a prominent Saudi family that has imported Chinese textiles for decades and now operates in many sectors. Scopa, founded in 2021, is the highest-profile private Saudi company set up to support Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman’s vision for a local arms sector, as the 38-year-old ruler tries to diversify the economy away from oil.

Alajlan denies dealing with Russian companies and says any transactions with Chinese firms are limited to securing raw materials such as copper or rubber for use in producing ammunition and armored vehicles.

“We don’t work with any companies that have international sanctions,” Alajlan said in an interview. Suggestions to the contrary “are all rumors, inaccurate and illogical and unrealistic,” he added. In a subsequent statement, he said none of his companies are involved in any negotiations or dealings with any sanctioned companies.

A State Department spokesperson declined to comment on any ongoing or potential investigations. “We expect all U.S. companies and individuals to do their necessary due diligence and operate in full compliance with all U.S. export control regulations and any applicable sanctions,” the person said.

A U.S. official said the Treasury Department is aware of concerns that Alajlan’s companies had dealings with sanctioned Russian and Chinese entities.

RTX and Scopa signed a memorandum of understanding in 2022 to set up a factory in Saudi Arabia for sophisticated air-defense systems to protect the country from drone and missile attacks.

The companies’ plan was to stitch together radars and multiple air-defense systems that could intercept drones and missiles of various sizes that fly at different speeds and altitudes, said Nasr Alghrairi, who was Scopa CEO until he was fired this year. Called a multi-mission battery, the system was supposed to be able to protect an eight-square-mile area, he said.

If information about current U.S. weapons systems that would be used in Scopa’s new weaponry were to fall into Russian or Chinese hands, it could risk being reverse engineered, undermining U.S. defenses.

The proposed joint venture between RTX and Scopa was expected to invest $25 billion in the kingdom and generate $17 billion of sales, said Alghrairi.

RTX’s decision to end talks with Scopa was “rushed, illogical and even irrational,” Alajlan said. He brought in a Saudi executive to succeed Alghrairi, whose contract wasn’t renewed after he failed to achieve performance targets, Alajlan said.

Alghrairi denied that and said he had expanded the business rapidly. He said he was fired for raising concerns about the Russia and China business.

RTX and the Saudi government didn’t respond to requests for comment.

Other Western companies, including Italy’s Beretta Defense Technologies and shipbuilder Fincantieri SpA, have backed away from working with Scopa. Some of the people familiar with the matter said concerns about Russian and Chinese business were a factor.

In his drive to create a local arms-manufacturing industry, the Saudi crown prince set up a defense company under the Saudi sovereign-wealth fund to do weapons and aerospace deals with Western manufacturers and encouraged the private sector to get involved. Scopa and Alajlan’s other companies aren’t state-owned but are generally expected to fall in line with the kingdom’s foreign policy. Alajlan said the government is their only customer.

To run Scopa, Alajlan hired Alghrairi, a U.S. Navy veteran who set up a small government-service contractor in Florida with his wife but had never worked for a major defense manufacturer.

The company splashed onto the scene in March 2022 at an arms expo in the Saudi desert. American executives in attendance grumbled privately about Scopa erecting billboards featuring NATO weapons systems and the company logo before it had even begun negotiations with their manufacturers.

Alghrairi used his military connections to establish an advisory board for Scopa led by retired Army Lt. Gen. Michael Barbero and other U.S. military veterans. They began lining up partnerships with RTX and dozens of other arms manufacturers in the U.S. and Europe.

Scopa envisioned manufacturing significant portions of NATO weaponry inside Saudi Arabia, which meant gaining access to technology that is tightly guarded by the International Traffic in Arms Regulations, a set of Cold War-era American rules that control the export of U.S. defense equipment.

Interviews with people familiar with the matter and documents reviewed by The Wall Street Journal indicate that two of his other companies made efforts to engage with sanctioned Chinese, Russian and Belarusian entities. It was those contacts that spooked Scopa’s board and potential Western partners such as RTX, some of the people said.

Barbero said Scopa’s U.S. advisers had worked in good faith and delivered potential partnerships with Western defense firms. “However, the situation on the ground made it untenable for us to continue to work with Scopa and left us with no choice other than to resign,” he said.

Alongside Scopa, Alajlan said, he set up Tal Military Industries and Sepha Military Industries. To run Sepha, he hired an executive from Concern Granit-Electron, a Russian company that supplies the Moscow government with communications technology and was sanctioned by the U.S. for supporting Russia’s military-industrial base.

He hired a Chinese national to run Tal, which he said does deals in Asia.

For months, Tal engaged in discussions about deals with Chinese companies sanctioned by the U.S., the U.K. and the European Union, while Sepha held deal talks with Russian and Belarusian companies that also face Western sanctions, according to company records reviewed by the Journal and the people familiar with the matter.

Tal and Sepha also shared corporate functions, including computer servers, with Scopa employees, according to one of the people familiar with the matter, even as Scopa was moving toward getting access to sensitive data from companies including RTX.

One document dated September 2022 indicates that Sepha had a preliminary agreement with Belarusian state arms exporter BelTechExport to acquire mobile air defense and counterdrone systems it proposed to sell to the Saudi Defense Ministry. The U.S. Treasury sanctioned BelTechExport as part of restrictions put on the Belarusian defense industry in 2021.

Another preliminary agreement with Granit and Russian state-arms exporter Rosoboronexport aimed to acquire communications interception technology that Sepha proposed to sell to the Saudi intelligence services. The document also shows that Sepha looked at marketing Russian ammunition, body armor and surveillance equipment in Saudi Arabia, assembling Russian attack helicopters there, and manufacturing armored vehicles with Russia’s Military Industrial Co.

A complaint lodged with the U.S. Treasury and reviewed by the Journal alleges Tal was in touch with at least half a dozen sanctioned Chinese companies. For example, it sought to produce land systems with Norinco Group, which has faced U.S. sanctions for years for links to the Chinese military and allegedly supplying missile technology to Iran, according to a Tal company record from January 2023.

The Russian, Belarusian and Chinese companies didn’t respond to requests for comment or couldn’t be reached.

Scopa, Tal and Sepha were planning to display Chinese drones and radars from BelTechExport alongside RTX air-defense systems and Beretta firearms at the next Riyadh defense show, scheduled for February 2024, according to another document and the people familiar with the matter.

The U.S. Embassy in Riyadh knew about the talks that Tal and Sepha were having with Chinese and Russian companies as early as August 2022, when it told Scopa in an email reviewed by the Journal that those activities “could seriously hinder the ability of Scopa to enter into contractual agreements with U.S. defense firms.”

Alajlan said that Sepha works with Eastern European companies and that Tal’s engagement with China is limited to securing supply chains for manufacturing military and civilian equipment in Saudi Arabia.

He continues inviting U.S. companies to work with Scopa and said some still talk to him. “There is a huge opportunity to cooperate together,” he said.

FT : Chinese banks shun Beijing’s flagship property bailout fund

Chinese banks shun Beijing’s flagship property bailout fund
State-backed lenders have disbursed less than 1% of $27bn scheme after failing to find creditworthy developers

A flagship Beijing lending programme to revive the country’s debt-stricken property market has done barely any business almost a year after its launch, officials said, highlighting the difficulty for policymakers seeking to boost confidence in the world’s second-largest economy.

The People’s Bank of China in November announced a Rmb200bn ($27bn) facility to provide interest-free loans to six state-owned commercial banks to finance thousands of stalled property projects across the country.

But almost a year after the programme was launched, less than 1 per cent of the funds have been disbursed to banks, which were supposed to match the PBoC loans with their own lending but have been unwilling to issue further debt to the ailing sector, according to former PBoC and current banking officials familiar with the situation.

“For Chinese banks, the downside of lending to distressed property projects far outweighs the upside,” said Larry Hu, chief China economist at Macquarie.

The failure of the central bank’s signature initiative to resolve the problem of unfinished homes illustrates the complexity of trying to design measures to revive China’s property sector, which accounts for more than a quarter of the country’s economic activity.

Plunging sales and mounting liabilities have forced many cash-strapped developers to suspend construction, leaving housing projects in limbo. Elmlead, a Shanghai-based real estate information provider, estimated that almost 2,000 projects nationwide worth a combined Rmb6tn had been suspended at the beginning of this year by developers that defaulted on bond payments.

Tens of thousands of frustrated homebuyers, who often begin paying mortgages before properties are completed, have launched boycotts, while construction delays have deterred new buyers from entering the market.

Economists said boosting the sector was critical to putting a floor under weak consumer demand in the economy, which has also been hit by a plunge in exports and flagging industrial production.

China’s State Council, the cabinet, in July highlighted “ensuring the delivery of [unfinished] apartments” as a policy priority. Chen Chuandong, director of the Hefei Housing Bureau in China’s eastern Anhui province, said in a speech this year that completing stalled apartments was a “political task” that developers and banks should treat as a “top priority”.

Policymakers have unveiled a series of measures, led by the PBoC-backed bailout fund and low-interest loans from policy banks, targeted at restarting construction, while large cities have cut minimum mortgage rates and downpayments to spur demand.

The central bank, which launched the bailout fund in November, initially planned to charge commercial banks 1.75 per cent interest before later cutting rates to zero to incentivise their participation.

But state-owned banks — which must lend double the amount of the central bank’s contribution to qualify for the funds — have not taken it up. Official data showed the value of outstanding loans issued through the Rmb200bn scheme was just Rmb500mn in June. Two people close to the central bank said the figure had not changed significantly since then.

One significant hurdle has been finding suitable recipients for the funds. Many developers could struggle to generate cash from unfinished projects to repay loans as their properties are pre-sold or have already been pledged to existing creditors.

“This [bailout fund] project is set to fail due to a lack of sources of debt repayment,” said an official at China Development Bank.

China Construction Bank, the country’s largest mortgage lender, has worked closely with CDB to provide property rescue loans. It became the first lender in eastern Shandong province to tap the fund in June, issuing an Rmb100mn matched loan in a region with more than 300 delayed residential projects. An official at CCB’s Shandong branch said no other bank had shown interest because of the risks.

“Qualified projects are very difficult to come by,” said the official.

In a report published last month, the PBoC said the fund would continue operating through May, adding that it would “encourage and guide” financial institutions to provide funding for stalled projects.

But analysts expressed scepticism about its prospects.

The PBoC “wanted to show that they had done their best even though the program wouldn’t work in practice”, said a former official with the central bank.

The PBoC, China Development Bank and China Construction Bank did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

FT : Maersk forms green methanol start-up in decarbonisation push

Maersk forms green methanol start-up in decarbonisation push
Container shipping group prepares to welcome its first vessel powered by the alternative fuel

AP Møller-Maersk and the founding family of the container shipping giant have set up a new company to produce green methanol in an attempt to increase supply of the fuel the Danish group views as essential to decarbonise the pillar of global trade.

The start-up, to be called C2X, is looking at green methanol projects close to the Suez Canal in Egypt, the port of Huelva in Spain, and the US, India, and Australia.

Maersk has hit out at the oil industry for not producing cheap enough green fuel, leading to it founding C2X as shipping proves to be one of the hardest sectors worldwide to decarbonise.

The shipping industry remains almost entirely dependent on fossil fuels and accounts for about 3 per cent of global greenhouse gas emissions, according to the OECD.

C2X, which is 80 per cent owned by the family investment company with the rest belonging to the Maersk public company, is aiming to produce 3mn tonnes of green methanol a year by 2030.

About 110mn tonnes of conventional polluting methanol, mostly derived from gas or coal, is now used by the chemicals and transport industries. Shipping is expected to add 10mn tonnes of demand by the end of the decade.

At present, green methanol, which is made from biomass or captured carbon and hydrogen produced by renewable energy, is limited and expensive.

“First and foremost we’re looking to accelerate the availability of green methanol. If green methanol was available at a reasonable price it would be the logical choice for chemical and shipping industries,” Brian Davis, chief executive of C2X, told the Financial Times.

The new company’s launch comes as Maersk’s first vessel capable of being powered by methanol is set to be named by Ursula von der Leyen, the European Commission president, at a ceremony in Copenhagen on Thursday.

Maersk announced last week that Equinor, the Norwegian state-controlled oil and gas major, would supply it with green methanol for the first months of the new vessel’s life.

C2X will not produce enough green methanol for Maersk’s own demand — estimated to be up to 5mn tonnes by 2030 — but will aim to supply the chemical industry with a fossil fuel-free alternative and potentially other shipping companies.

Davis said it was not a defensive move by Maersk. “It hasn’t been conceived out of a fear of lack of supply. The business case is so compelling. What it really needs is people to step up and make it,” said Davis, who worked at Shell for more than 30 years.

C2X has already recruited a team of 60 from the chemicals and renewable energy industries. Its chief financial officer will be Alastair Maxwell, a former banker at Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs.

Maersk has ordered up to 19 green methanol-powered ships as it targets net zero emissions by 2040 — the most advanced of any large container shipping group — but all will be capable of burning fossil fuels too.

Critics of green methanol point out the need for CO₂ for the production of the e-fuel. Davis said finding a “biological” and not fossil source of carbon was “very hard” and that C2X would probably need to get it via carbon capture and storage projects. He estimated that demand for green methanol could reach 300mn tonnes by 2050.

C2X and Maersk declined to comment on how large its series A financing round had been. But Davis said C2X would need billions of euros to bring its projects to fruition by 2030 and so would need external partners.

“There is a pressing environmental requirement to scale the production of green methanol. C2X was founded to enable the energy transition in several hard to abate industries, including plastics, glues, textiles, and fuels,” said Robert Uggla, chief executive of AP Møller Holding and chair of Maersk as well as the fifth generation of the shipping group’s founding family.

>>> US After Hours Summary: SBUX -0.3% as Howard Schultz steps down from board;

After Hours Summary: SBUX -0.3% as Howard Schultz steps down from board; Wei Zhang joins board; SMTC -5.9% lower on earnings; DDD +2% delivers signed merger agreement to SSYS +1.9%

After Hours Gainers:

Companies trading higher in after hours in reaction to earnings/guidance: None

Companies trading higher in after hours in reaction to news: SCNI +8.4% (reports preclinical results for plaque psoriasis treatment), DVAX +2.3% (supply agreement with Avecia), HSTM +2% (authorizes new $10 mln share repurchase program), DDD +2% (DDD delivers signed merger agreement to SSYS), SSYS +1.9% (DDD delivers signed merger agreement to SSYS), TRIN +1.5% (increases dividend), HOOD +0.9% (reports August 2023 operating data), AMZN +0.3% (launching new generative AI tools)

After Hours Losers:

Companies trading lower in after hours in reaction to earnings/guidance: IBEX -8.2%, SMTC -5.9%

Companies trading lower in after hours in reaction to news: IE -10.8% (files for $150 mln share offering), VTLE -9.8% (to significantly increase Permian Basin Scale through accretive transactions; also stock offering), IMAX -3.5% (expands strategic relationship with Prime Focus into streaming ecosystem), EPRT -1.8% (commences 8.7 mln share offering), ALNY -1.7% (announces outcome of FDA advisory committee meeting on patisiran), CTLP -1.5% (to delay 10-K filing), SBUX -0.3% (Howard Schultz steps down from board; Wei Zhang joins board)

FT : Meloni sticks by Italian bank windfall tax despite ECB criticism

Meloni sticks by Italian bank windfall tax despite ECB criticism
Levy poses risk to eurozone financial stability by reducing Italian lenders’ retained earnings, says central bank

The European Central Bank has taken aim at Italy’s windfall tax on banks, warning that it risked making the sector more vulnerable to an economic downturn and urging Rome to carefully assess the impact of the levy.

The ECB’s non-binding legal opinion, published as its governing council met in Frankfurt on Wednesday, is set to intensify tensions with Rome, already elevated after rate-setters’ sharp increases in borrowing costs.

But in a Wednesday night interview, Italian prime minister Giorgia Meloni ruled out scrapping the tax, though she said the details could be amended provided the revenues remained “unchanged” and the tax still yielded the “just under” €3bn in revenues Rome was now expecting.

“If there are corrections to be made, it can be done, but I do not want to backtrack,” she said on state television.

Her comments came hours after the ECB warned that banks with weaker capital levels or smaller institutions more reliant on traditional lending activities “could become less able to absorb the potential downside risks of an economic downturn” as a result of the proposed tax.

It added that Italy’s tax could also hurt eurozone financial stability, by reducing banks’ retained earnings, constraining their lending capacity and restricting their ability to build up capital buffers to absorb future losses.

Last month’s shock decision to impose a 40 per cent tax on a portion of Italian banks’ net interest incomes — the margin between what they earn on loans and pay to depositors — was announced at a late-night press conference by deputy prime minister Matteo Salvini last month. It jolted investors and sent bank stocks tumbling the following morning.

Adding to the confusion, multiple versions of the details of the proposed tax emerged, as banks and investors sought clarity. After nearly 24 hours, the finance ministry partially backtracked, scaling back the scope of the levy and capping the collection at 0.1 per cent of banks’ total assets. 

Italy’s proposal follows similar moves made by EU governments in Spain, Hungary, the Czech Republic and Lithuania over the past year, most of which have drawn similar rebukes from the ECB.

Meloni has repeatedly defended the one-off tax, which she said was necessary to curb lenders’ “illegitimate profits” from failing to raise deposit rates even as the ECB’s policy rates have increased. In a social media video, she called the move “a tax on an unfair margin”. 

Lenders have contested the tax, questioning its basic legality. The Italian Banking Association said in testimony submitted to parliament this week that the levy violated the Italian constitutional principle of the right to property, given the “expropriation nature of the measure on the wealth of the company”.

The association also argued that comparing current margins with those from a period when “interest rates hovered around zero” was not a fair parameter, and could violate the EU’s fundamental principle of free competition.  

The ECB warned the tax’s “retroactive nature may fuel perceptions of an uncertain taxation framework and give rise to extensive litigation, creating problems of legal uncertainty”.

Although rising interest rates have boosted banks’ profits by allowing them to increase the cost of lending faster than the rate they offer to savers, the ECB said this may not last as the sector could be hit by lower lending volumes and higher losses from defaults on existing loans.

The Italian economy contracted 0.4 per cent in the three months to June from the previous quarter, reflecting a manufacturing slowdown and the scaling back of tax incentives to renovate houses.

“The ECB recommends that in order to assess whether its application poses risks to financial stability, and in particular whether it has the potential to impair the banking sector’s resilience and cause market distortion, the decree law be accompanied by a thorough analysis of potential negative consequences for the banking sector,” it said.

This analysis should examine the tax’s impact on banks’ “longer-term profitability and capital base, access to funding and the provision of new lending and competition conditions in the market, and its potential impact on liquidity”, the ECB added. 

It said some lenders may make higher net interest income while losing money overall if their fee-earning operations suffered a setback. The tax could also cause fragmentation of Europe’s banking system “because of the heterogeneous nature of such taxes”.

>>> Semtech says it's in compliance with financial covenants, but has has taken

Semtech says it's in compliance with financial covenants, but has has taken actions to reduce expenses to preserve cash and maintain compliance with its financial covenants

  • In 10-Q filing, co says "The accompanying interim unaudited condensed consolidated financial statements have been prepared assuming that the Company will continue as a going concern, which contemplates the realization of assets and satisfaction of liabilities in the normal course of business. Management evaluated whether there are any conditions and events, considered in the aggregate, that raise substantial doubt about the Company's ability to continue as a going concern over the next twelve months from the issuance of the accompanying interim unaudited condensed consolidated financial statements. Compliance with the Company's leverage and interest expense coverage financial covenants is measured quarterly based upon the Company's performance over the most recent four quarters, and compliance with the liquidity covenant is measured as of the last day of each monthly accounting period. As of July 30, 2023, the Company was in compliance with the financial covenants in the Credit Agreement (as defined in Note 9, Long-Term Debt). In response to adverse market demand conditions, the Company has taken actions to reduce expenses to preserve cash and maintain compliance with its financial covenants. In the absence of additional actions, the Company may not maintain compliance with the financial covenants over the next twelve months from the issuance of the accompanying interim unaudited condensed consolidated financial statements, which noncompliance would raise substantial doubt about the Company's ability to continue as a going concern. Failure to meet the covenant requirements in the Credit Agreement would constitute an event of default under the Credit Agreement and there is no certainty the Company would be able to obtain waivers or amendments with the requisite lenders party thereto in order to maintain compliance. If an event of default occurs and the Company is unable to obtain necessary waivers or amendments, the requisite lenders may elect to declare all outstanding borrowings, together with accrued and unpaid interest and other amounts payable thereunder, to be immediately due and payable. Further, if an event of default occurs, the lenders will have the right to proceed against the collateral granted to them to secure that debt. If the debt under the Credit Agreement were to be accelerated, the Company's assets may not be sufficient to repay in full the debt that may become due as a result of that acceleration. The Company could seek replacement financing at prevailing market rates or raise additional capital by issuing equity or debt securities; however, this may not be on terms favorable to the Company, or available at all. Based on the Company's current projections and management's plan to further manage controllable expenditures through cost-saving initiatives that are planned and probable to be implemented, management believes the Company is expected to maintain compliance with its financial covenants and the Company's existing cash, projected operating cash flows and available borrowing capacity under its Revolving Credit Facility (as defined in Note 9, Long-Term Debt) are adequate to meet its operating needs, liabilities and commitments over the next twelve months from the issuance of the accompanying interim unaudited condensed consolidated financial statements."

>>> 3D Systems delivers signed merger agreement to Stratasys (SSYS) (5.16 -0.08)

3D Systems delivers signed merger agreement to Stratasys

  • 3D Systems (DDD) announces that it has delivered a signed merger agreement to Stratasys Ltd. (SSYS), substantially in the form shared with the Stratasys Board on September 6, 2023, and as required, will now be filed on Form 8-K with the SEC by 3D Systems.
  • The binding offer presents shareholders with a certain, superior alternative to Stratasys' planned acquisition of Desktop Metal (DM) and can be countersigned by Stratasys following termination of its merger agreement with Desktop Metal.
  • DDD believes that Stratasys' reasons for rejecting the company's proposal and its refusal to continue negotiations were either well-known to Stratasys and investors when Stratasys determined that 3D Systems' July 13 proposal was likely to lead to a superior proposal, or misleading, self-interested and overly focused on short-term prospects.
  • While near-term share prices for all companies in the sector have been pressured, the long-term trajectories of Stratasys and 3D Systems remain fundamentally unchanged in the past two months, raising serious questions to the credibility of Stratasys' evaluation of the 3D Systems proposal.
  • Most importantly, Stratasys affirmed that the 3D Systems combination would generate significantly more synergies, and therefore value creation, than any other available alternative.

>>> US Close Dow -0,20% S&P +0,12% Nasdaq +0,29%

Closing Stock Market Summary
Today's trade was lackluster with the major indices registering only modest gains or losses. The A-D line favored decliners, but there wasn't a lot of conviction overall. The major indices followed the direction of the mega cap stocks, which drove some choppy action in the morning and later in the afternoon.

Briefly, total CPI was up a robust 0.6%, as expected, and core-CPI, which excludes food and energy, was up 0.3% (Briefing.com consensus 0.2%). That left total CPI up 3.7% year-over-year, versus 3.2% in July, and core CPI up 4.3% year-over-year, versus 4.7% in July.

The key takeaway from the report is that core inflation, which is what the Fed monitors more closely, showed ongoing improvement on a year-over-year basis; however, it is still well above the Fed's 2.0% target, reflecting a sticky quality that probably won't compel the Fed to raise rates further at this point, but which will certainly keep the Fed in a "higher for longer" mindset.

The Treasury market saw some knee-jerk selling in response to the data. Things quickly calmed down, though, which was supportive for the stock market. The 2-yr note yield jumped to 5.07% after the data, but finished at 4.99%, one basis point lower from yesterday's settlement. The 10-yr note yield, which hit 4.34% following the data, fell two basis points from yesterday to 4.25%.

Rate hike expectations did not change much following the CPI report. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, the probability of a 25 basis points rate hike at the November FOMC meeting is 40.1% versus 44.2% yesterday.

Six of the 11 S&P 500 sectors logged a gain. The utilities sector (+1.2%), which was the only sector to gain more than 1.0%, led the lineup, and the real estate sector (-1.0%), which was the only sector to lose more than 1.0%, fell to the bottom of the pack.
Airline stocks were a notable weak spot in the market after Spirit Airlines (SAVE 16.20, -1.08, -6.3%), Frontier Group (ULCC 5.95, -0.56, -9.2%), and American Airlines (AAL 13.31, -0.80, -5.7%) warned about their Q3 outlooks due in part to rising fuel costs. The U.S. Global Jets ETF (JETS) fell 2.7%.

On a related note, the industrial sector (-0.7%) was among the weakest performers, partially due to its weak airline components. Separately, Netflix (NLFX 412.24, -22.45, -5.2%) was a key individual laggard, falling in response to its disclosure that the ad business is not material yet to its overall revenue.
  • Nasdaq Composite: +32.0% YTD
  • S&P 500: +16.4% YTD
  • S&P Midcap 400: +5.5% YTD
  • Russell 2000: +4.5% YTD
  • Dow Jones Industrial Average: +4.3% YTD
Reviewing today's economic data:
  • Total CPI increased 0.6% month-over-month in August, as expected, with rising gasoline prices accounting for over half of the increase. Core CPI, which excludes food and energy, rose a stronger-than-expected 0.3% month-over-month (consensus 0.2%). On a year-over-year basis, total CPI was up 3.7%, versus 3.2% in July, and core CPI was up 4.3%, versus 4.7% in July.
    • The key takeaway from the report is that core inflation, which is what the Fed monitors more closely, showed ongoing improvement on a year-over-year basis; however, it is still well above the Fed's 2.0% target, reflecting a sticky quality that probably won't compel the Fed to raise rates further at this point, but which will certainly keep the Fed in a "higher for longer" mindset.
  • The weekly MBA Mortgage Index was down 0.8% after decreasing 2.9% a week ago. The Refinance Index was down 5.4% while the Purchase Index was up 1.3%.
  • The August Treasury Budget showed a surprising surplus of $89.2 billion compared to a deficit of $219.6 bln in the same period a year ago. The surplus in August resulted from receipts ($283.1 billion) exceeding outlays ($193.9 billion). The Treasury Budget data is not seasonally adjusted so the August 2023 surplus cannot be compared to the July 2023 deficit of $220.8 billion.
    • The key takeaway from the report is that outlays included impacts from the $319 billion Debt Relief Reversal downward modification to the DOE's Federal Direct Student Loans program. August typically shows a budget deficit (68 times out of 69 fiscal years) since there are no major tax due dates.
  • Weekly crude oil inventories increased by 3.954 mln barrels after decreasing by 6.307 mln barrels a week ago.
Thursday's economic calendar features some potentially market-moving releases. The weekly jobless claims report, the August Producer Price Index, and the August Retail Sales report will be released at 8:30 a.m. ET. Other data includes:
  • 10:00 ET: July Business Inventories (consensus 0.1%; prior 0.0%)
  • 10:30 ET: Weekly natural gas inventories (prior +33 bcf)

WSJ : Arm Set to Price IPO at $52 a Share

Arm Set to Price IPO at $52 a Share
Price would modestly exceed expectations and value British chip designer at more than $55 billion

Arm is preparing to price its shares at $52 apiece, as the British chip designer lays the groundwork for the biggest U.S. public offering of the year.

The price will be set in a meeting Wednesday afternoon between underwriters and company executives, according to people familiar with the matter. The situation remains fluid and the price could still shift.

At a per-share price of $52, Arm would be valued at $55.5 billion on a fully diluted basis. That’s below the $64 billion Arm owner SoftBank Group 9984 -1.63%decrease; red down pointing triangle recently valued the company at when it bought out a stake held by its Vision Fund.

Arm shares are set to start training Thursday on Nasdaq under the symbol ARM.