FT : EU to launch anti-subsidy probe into Chinese electric vehicles

EU to launch anti-subsidy probe into Chinese electric vehicles
Investigation could lead to tariffs on country’s manufacturers

Brussels will launch an anti-subsidy investigation into Chinese electric vehicles that are “distorting” the EU market, a probe that could constitute one of the largest trade cases launched given the scale of the market.

European Commission president Ursula von der Leyen announced the probe in her annual address to EU lawmakers on Wednesday. “Global markets are now flooded with cheaper Chinese electric cars,” she said.

“And as we do not accept this from the inside, we do not accept this from the outside. So I can announce today that the commission is launching an anti-subsidy investigation into electric vehicles coming from China.”

European companies were “too often . . . excluded from foreign markets”, she said in the European parliament in Strasbourg. “They are often undercut by competitors benefiting from huge state subsidies.”

The investigation has been planned for months, and the EU’s concerns regarding China’s electric vehicle trade practices were conveyed by von der Leyen to Chinese premier Li Qiang in a bilateral meeting on the sidelines of the G20 summit in New Delhi last weekend, according to a person briefed on the discussion.

Shares in Chinese electric-vehicle makers sold off on the prospect of greater regulatory scrutiny from Brussels, with Warren Buffett-backed BYD closing down 2.8 per cent and rival Xpeng dropping almost 2.5 per cent. Other electric carmakers, including Great Wall Motor and Li Auto, were also lower following the announcement.

Action against Chinese carmakers in Europe has been demanded by some member states, notably France, concerned that major domestic carmakers risk losing their leadership as the green transition reshapes the market.

The probe could constitute one of the largest trade cases launched as the EU tries to prevent a replay of what happened to its solar industry in the early 2010s when photovoltaic manufacturers undercut by cheap Chinese imports went into insolvency.

If found to be in breach of trade rules, manufacturers could be hit with punitive tariffs.

In the case of the solar industry, Brussels launched a tariff regime against imports of Chinese photovoltaic cells in 2012 but later scrapped the controls in order to boost installations of renewable power.

“This is an important move by the commission, signalling the willingness to use trade instruments more proactively to protect the European industry and avoid the replication of the solar panels failure experience in the past to the crucial car industry,” said Simone Tagliapietra, senior fellow at the Brussels-based think-tank Bruegel.

Chinese carmakers have made little secret of their ambitions to dominate Europe's electric car industry, which is the largest electric vehicle market outside China.

BYD's European boss Michael Shu previously told the Financial Times the marque intends to be in the top three brands by the end of the decade, and number one “if possible”.

Sigrid de Vries, head of carmaker trade body ACEA, praised the commission for “recognising the increasingly asymmetric situation our industry is faced with, and is giving urgent consideration to distorted competition in our sector”.

EU trade commissioner Valdis Dombrovskis is due to travel to Beijing next week.

Many of Europe's largest carmakers have raised the alarm on Chinese imports, saying lower energy and labour costs give them an advantage over European models.

Peugeot owner Stellantis, the second-largest European carmaker, said it was considering building cheaper electric vehicles outside Europe and importing them, to compete with Chinese models.

The share of Chinese car brands in the EU market has increased from less than 1 per cent in 2021 to 2.8 per cent this year, according to Schmidt Automotive Research.

But in the electric vehicle market, Chinese manufacturers made 8 per cent of vehicles sold, according to automotive data analyst Inovev.

Von der Leyen also announced measures to improve access to finance and improve auction systems for the wind industry, which is financial difficulty due to similar competition from China.

Giles Dickson, chief executive of WindEurope, the industry body, said that the announcement was the culmination of crisis talks over the summer with the commission. “We need immediate action to support our supply chain,” he said.

The EU needed to “step up” on economic security, von der Leyen said, in response to China’s own measures such as export controls on critical metals gallium and germanium.

Event details and information
Hydrogen Summit

FT : ChatGPT should do your earnings calls

ChatGPT should do your earnings calls
Machine-on-machine games

We bet most CEOs secretly love doing earnings calls. Who doesn’t like the idea of a dozen smart but access-seeking analysts saying “great quarter guys!” every three months.

But they can be stressful as well. You don’t just want to avoid saying anything dumb, you actually want to avoid saying anything even meaningful. Which is why this paper by John Bai, Nicole Boyson, Yi Cao, Miao Liu and Chi Wan is so delightful:

A significant portion of information shared in earnings calls is conveyed through verbal communication by corporate managers. However, quantifying the extent of new information provided by managers poses challenges due to the unstructured nature of human language and the difficulty in gauging the market’s existing knowledge. In this study, we introduce a novel measure of information content (Human-AI Differences, HAID) by exploiting the discrepancy between answers to questions at earnings calls provided by corporate executives and those given by several context-preserving Large Language Models (LLM) such as ChatGPT, Google Bard, and an open source LLM. HAID strongly predicts stock liquidity, abnormal returns, number of analysts’ forecast revisions, analyst forecast accuracy following these calls, and propensity of managers to provide management guidance, consistent with HAID capturing new information conveyed by managers. Overall, our results highlight the importance of using LLM as a tool to help investors unveil the veiled — penetrating the information layers and unearthing hidden insights.

OK this is a bit of a waffle. Luckily, Matt Levine has already summed up the findings better than we could. Here’s his take:

  • Some earnings calls were pretty close to what ChatGPT would come up with, that is, not a lot of new information in the Q&A.

  • Other earnings calls were not: Executives gave answers to analyst questions that the chatbot would not have predicted.

  • The non-robotic earnings calls were more informative than the robotic ones: The stock moved more (up or down) after the earnings call, and analysts’ future earnings forecasts were more accurate, when executives said stuff that chatbots would not have predicted.

But this is bad! CEOs don’t want to be informative. They don’t want accurate forecasts. And they certainly don’t want their company’s stock moving around a lot based on some earnings-call brain fart.

Yes, the theory behind regular earnings calls with analysts or “investor days” is that senior executives can better inform the investment world about their fascinating company and its vibrant prospects — going deeper than what they can glean from the numbers and other public information etc etc. They’re an integral part of the theatre of being a public company.

But in practice you don’t really want to give away anything too revealing either, whether good or bad. Even if you say something true and positive that lifts your stock it just makes your job harder by raising expectations. Better to smash forecasts when the results are in. As anyone of a certain age knows, the secret to happiness is low expectations. And investors certainly don’t want to find out any bad news as an aside on the conference call.

Therefore, no CEO actually wants their stock to move during the call and (Michael O’Leary excepted) are coached rigorously to be as bland as possible. Add a few “at the end of the day”, take away the management bullshit and excise vague chatter about “economic uncertainty” and most of them sound like footballers after a boring 0-0.

Worse, these days earnings calls aren’t just listened to by a bunch of analysts, investors and the occasional journalist. In fact, the humans are vastly outnumbered by a horde of trading algorithms that will buy or sell your stock based solely on things like your overuse of the word “but”.

Here is a chart showing the explosion of machine readings of US filings in 2003-16, accounting for 78 per cent of all downloads that final year. Since then it has likely gone parabolic.

If you thought that we were exaggerating by saying the word “but” can be a trigger for a stock market wobble, that’s actually from Luke Ellis, the exiting CEO of Man Group, one of the world’s biggest quant funds. From a mainFT story a few years ago:

“There’s always been a game of cat and mouse, in CEOs trying to be clever in their choice of words,” Mr Ellis says. “But the machines can pick up a verbal tick that a human might not even realise is a thing.” 

Alphaville gathers that many companies are already using language-AI systems to judge how trading algorithms might respond to their prepared remarks (and prepared answers to obvious questions), and adjusting accordingly.

As a result, usage of certain trigger words identified as being negative in a popular AI language training data set have fallen sharply, as this paper detailed. Some are even tweaking their tone to avoid triggering the algos:

Managers of firms with higher expected machine readership exhibit more positivity and excitement in their vocal tones, justifying the anecdotal evidence that managers increasingly seek professional coaching to improve their vocal performances along the quantifiable metrics.

Given the findings of the Executives vs. Chatbots paper, perhaps it is time to go further?

Levine suggested that ChatGPT should perhaps do earnings call if results are bad. We’d argue that perhaps ChatGPT — or your LLM of choice — should do all earnings calls. Except O’Leary’s, obviously.

FT : Zara owner bets on big stores to keep sales space growing

Zara owner bets on big stores to keep sales space growing
Inditex says fashion retailer’s shops serve as showcase for the brand and as warehouses for ecommerce

The owner of fashion brand Zara is accelerating a “go big” store strategy by opening its largest shop in the world in Rotterdam and doubling the size of other flagships to make space for new product lines and ecommerce logistics.

Óscar García Maceiras, chief executive of Spanish group Inditex, said that in November it would open a 9,000 square metre Zara outlet in the Dutch city. The size comes close to matching the 9,900 sq metre average of the UK’s 10 biggest Tesco supermarkets.

While other fashion retailers are switching to smaller stores as inflation drives up costs, Inditex is bucking the trend as it posts robust sales growth.

Investors were disappointed, however, that its latest quarterly results on Wednesday, for the three months to July 31, pointed to a modest slowdown in sales growth, sending its share price down €1.18 — 3 per cent — to €34.61. Shares in the company, valued at €108bn, nonetheless remain up 35 per cent this year.

Announcing the results, García Maceiras said that in addition to the store in Rotterdam’s Coolsingel street, Inditex was doubling the size of flagship stores near Paris’s Hotel de Ville and in Miami’s Dadeland district.

Although Inditex, which has operations in more than 90 countries, has long sought eye-catching stores in landmark buildings, the shift to even bigger spaces serves two new purposes.

It enables the company to accommodate a proliferation of new product lines under the Zara brand, which now encompasses cosmetics, footwear and sports clothes as well as the homeware of Zara Home.

It also allows space for the growing role stores play in online sales, either as mini-warehouses from which packages are shipped out or as sites where consumers can pick up orders and return unwanted goods.

Hailing a new store design also being rolled out in Dubai, São Paulo and Shenyang, García Maceiras said it integrated the “most sophisticated interiors with the functional and digital sections like fitting rooms, self-checkout areas, click and collect points . . . and stockrooms”.

At the same time as opening bigger stores, Inditex is closing down smaller underperformers. Its total number of shops globally stood at 5,745 at the end of July, down from 6,370 a year ago, with the cut in numbers spread across Zara and all its other brands: Pull & Bear, Massimo Dutti, Bershka, Stradivarius and Oysho.

Inditex’s rivals are also reshaping to address changing conditions. UK-based retailer Next has been gradually reducing its store numbers. Abercrombie & Fitch has been closing costly and oversized flagships and replacing them with smaller, more efficient and less expensive ones.

Overall this year, Inditex executives said they expected its retail space to increase by 3 per cent, but stressed that rising “store productivity” was also driving sales.

In a routine trading update published alongside its quarterly results, Inditex said sales in the five weeks starting on August 1 were up 14 per cent from a year ago. Patricia Cifuentes, analyst at Bestinver, described the figure as “weaker than expected” given that sales in the first six months of Inditex’s financial year had been up 16.6 per cent.

The company’s earning figures, however, were more positive. Net income in the three months to July 31 jumped 30 per cent to €1.35bn with margins increasing, allaying concerns that inflation could increase production costs and crimp profitability.

>>> US : Brokers Upgrades & Downgrades - 13th of September 2023

Research Calls
  • Upgrades:
    • American Electric (AEP) upgraded to Neutral from Sell at Ladenburg Thalmann
    • General Motors (GM) upgraded to Buy from Neutral at UBS; tgt raised to $44
    • Immunocore (IMCR) upgraded to Overweight from Neutral at JP Morgan; tgt raised to $22
    • Sealed Air (SEE) upgraded to Outperform from Neutral at Credit Suisse; tgt lowered to $47
    • UMB Financial Corporation (UMBF) upgraded to Overweight from Neutral at Piper Sandler; tgt $74
  • Downgrades:
    • ACELYRIN (SLRN) downgraded to Equal-Weight from Overweight at Morgan Stanley; tgt $19
    • Ball Corp (BALL) downgraded to Neutral from Outperform at Credit Suisse; tgt lowered to $58
    • O-I Glass (OI) downgraded to Neutral from Outperform at Credit Suisse; tgt raised to $22
    • Oracle (ORCL) downgraded to Neutral from Overweight at JP Morgan; tgt lowered to $100
    • Tapestry (TPR) downgraded to Neutral from Overweight at Redburn Atlantic; tgt $33
    • Ultrapar Participacoes (UGP) downgraded to Neutral from Buy at Goldman; tgt lowered to $4
  • Others:
    • Adient (ADNT) initiated with a Neutral at UBS; tgt $43
    • American Axle (AXL) initiated with a Neutral at UBS; tgt $9
    • Aptiv (APTV) initiated with a Buy at UBS; tgt $143
    • Ares Commercial Real Estate (ACRE) initiated with an Equal Weight at Wells Fargo; tgt $10
    • Atlantic Union Bankshares (AUB) initiated with an Overweight at Stephens; tgt $36
    • B&G Foods (BGS) initiated with an Underperform at TD Cowen; tgt $10
    • Beyond Meat (BYND) initiated with an Underperform at TD Cowen; tgt $10
    • BorgWarner (BWA) initiated with a Buy at UBS; tgt $52
    • Cactus (WHD) initiated with a Neutral at JP Morgan; tgt $60
    • Campbell Soup (CPB) initiated with a Market Perform at TD Cowen; tgt $45
    • Conagra (CAG) initiated with a Market Perform at TD Cowen; tgt $32
    • Charles River (CRL) initiated with a Market Perform at TD Cowen; tgt $212
    • Dana Inc (DAN) initiated with a Neutral at UBS; tgt $17
    • Expro Group (XPRO) initiated with an Overweight at JP Morgan; tgt $30
    • Ford Motor (F) initiated with a Buy at UBS; tgt $15
    • Fortinet (FTNT) initiated with an Overweight at CapitalOne; tgt $74
    • Freshpet (FRPT) initiated with an Outperform at TD Cowen; tgt $90
    • General Mills (GIS) initiated with a Market Perform at TD Cowen; tgt $70
    • Gorman-Rupp (GRC) initiated with a Buy at Northcoast; tgt $40
    • Hershey Foods (HSY) initiated with an Outperform at TD Cowen; tgt $250
    • Hostess Brands (TWNK) initiated with a Market Perform at TD Cowen; tgt $34
    • ICF International (ICFI) resumed with a Mkt Perform at William Blair
    • ICON plc (ICLR) initiated with an Outperform at TD Cowen; tgt $306
    • Lear (LEA) initiated with a Neutral at UBS; tgt $150
    • J.M. Smucker (SJM) initiated with an Outperform at TD Cowen; tgt $158
    • Kellogg (K) initiated with a Market Perform at TD Cowen; tgt $63
    • Kraft Heinz (KHC) initiated with a Market Perform at TD Cowen; tgt $35
    • Lamb Weston (LW) initiated with an Outperform at TD Cowen; tgt $125
    • Magna (MGA) initiated with a Neutral at UBS; tgt $63
    • McCormick (MKC) initiated with a Market Perform at TD Cowen; tgt $87
    • Mondelez Int'l (MDLZ) initiated with an Outperform at TD Cowen; tgt $82
    • Mobileye Global (MBLY) initiated with a Buy at UBS; tgt $48
    • NV5 Global (NVEE) initiated with an Outperform at William Blair
    • Redwire Corporation (RDW) initiated with a Buy at ROTH MKM; tgt $10
    • Rivian Automotive (RIVN) initiated with a Neutral at UBS; tgt $26
    • Seacoast Banking (SBCF) initiated with an Equal-Weight at Stephens; tgt $23
    • Sociedad Quimica y Minera (SQM) initiated with a Buy at Citigroup; tgt $85
    • Tesla (TSLA) initiated with a Neutral at UBS; tgt $290
    • Tetra Tech (TTEK) initiated with an Outperform at William Blair
    • TKO Group Holdings (TKO) initiated with a Buy at Guggenheim; tgt $130
    • Towne Bank (TOWN) initiated with an Equal-Weight at Stephens; tgt $23
    • TreeHouse Foods (THS) initiated with a Market Perform at TD Cowen; tgt $45
    • Utz Brands (UTZ) initiated with an Outperform at TD Cowen; tgt $18
    • Uranium Energy (UEC) initiated with a Speculative Buy at TD Securities; tgt $6
    • Veeco Instruments (VECO) initiated with a Buy at Citigroup; tgt $35
    • Visteon (VC) initiated with a Neutral at UBS; tgt $157
    • Vital Farms (VITL) initiated with a Market Perform at TD Cowen; tgt $13

>>> US Gapping up

Gapping up
In reaction to earnings/guidance
:
  • REVG +9.9%
Other news:
  • RCKT +22.4% (reaches FDA alignment on Phase 2 Trial Design for RP-A501; also prices offering of 7812500 shares of its common stock at $16.00 per share and pre-funded warrants to purchase 3126955 shares of common stock at$15.99 per pre-funded warrant)
  • SGML +16.5% (is evaluating potential strategic alternatives)
  • MYNZ +13.4% (ColoFuture Study update)
  • OCUL +4.4% (submitted a request for a Special Protocol Assessment for the first of the Company's two planned OTX-TKI pivotal trials)
  • MRNA +4.1% (expands the field of MRNA medicine with positive clinical results across cancer rare disease and infectious disease)
  • SLI +3.2% (acquires large parcel of land for South West Arkansas Project)
  • RKLB +2.9% (RKLB signs contract with LDOS to launch four HASTE missions)
  • CRNX +2.3% (upsizes and prices offering of 11441648 shares of its common stock at $30.59 per share)
  • MOR +2.1% (receives FDA Fast Track designation for tulmimetostat in endometrial cancer)
  • RCKY +2% (CFO resigns)
  • CECO +1.4% (acquires Kemco Systems; raises FY23 revs outlook)
  • JACK +1.2% (names new Del Taco Brand President)
  • HRT +1.1% (authorizes additional $25 mln share repurchase program)
Analyst comments:
  • SEE +1.1% (upgraded to Outperform from Neutral at Credit Suisse)

>>> US Gapping down

Gapping down
In reaction to earnings/guidance
:
  • EPM -13.1%, SAVE -3.9% (guidance), AAL -2.8% (guidance), BUR -1.7%, MOS -0.9% (releases July and August revenue)
Other news:
  • EPM -13.1% (Evolution Petroleum and PEDEVCO (PED) enter into strategic partnership to jointly develop PEDEVCO's Chaveroo Field in the Permian Basin)
  • AAOI -12.4% (disclosed after hours it terminated Prime World sale; amended Equity Distribution Agreement)
  • LAZY -6.7% (announces plans for rights offering to stockholders)
  • VIRT -5.3% (SEC files complaint against co after settlement talks fail)
  • GRNT -4.7% (prices secondary offering of 7.1 mln shares of common stock at $5.00 per share)
  • NVO -2.8% (conducts a two-for-one stock split)
  • SQSP -2.7% (prices offering of 5 mln shares of common stock at $29.00 per share)
  • ZNTL -2% (details 2023 catalysts in presentation)
  • SPSC -1.9% (completes acquisition of TIE Kinetix)
  • SBOW -1.7% (stock offering)
Analyst comments:
  • BALL -1.3% (downgraded to Neutral from Outperform at Credit Suisse)

>>> US Early premarket gappers

Early premarket gappers

Gapping up:
MYNZ +22.4%, RCKT +16.8%, RKLB +4.2%, SLI +3.5%, CRNX +2.5%, SGML +2.1%, RCKY +2%, MOR +2%, REVG +2%, HRT +1.7%, VFS +1.5%, JACK +1.2%, FIVE +1.1%
Gapping down:
EPM -13.9%, LAZY -6.7%, GRNT -4.9%, AAOI -4.8%, VIRT -4.2%, SAVE -3.8%, SBOW -3.7%, NVO -2.6%, SQSP -1.6%, BEN -0.9%, VRDN -0.8%, RTX -0.7%, VCTR -0.6%

>>> Europe : Brokers Upgrades & Downgrades - 13th of September 2023 V2(+)

>>> Up
* Boliden Raised to Neutral at Citi; PT 330 kronor
* Costain Raised to Buy at Peel Hunt
* CVS Group Raised to Outperform at RBC; PT 1,900 pence
* Inventiva SACA Raised to Buy at KBC Securities (+)
* Marks & Spencer Raised to Overweight at Morgan Stanley
* Pandora Raised to Hold at SocGen; PT 754 kroner
* Sword Raised to Buy at IDMidcaps; PT 45 euros (+)

>>> Down
* AB Foods Cut to Hold at Deutsche Bank; PT 2,260 pence
* Kingspan Cut to Neutral at JPMorgan; PT 80 euros
* Oracle Cut to Neutral at JPMorgan; PT $100
* Petershill Cut to Add at Numis; PT 180 pence

>>> Initiation
* AFRY AB Rated New Hold at DNB Markets; PT 150 kronor
* Albemarle Rated New Outperform at Haitong Intl; PT $240
* Alstom Reinstated Underweight at Barclays; PT 16.50 euros
* Eurogroup Laminations Rated New Buy at Berenberg; PT 7 euros
* Kellogg Rated New Market Perform at Cowen; PT $63
* Knorr-Bremse Rated New Underweight at Barclays; PT 45 euros
* Kraft Heinz Rated New Market Perform at Cowen; PT $35
* Mondelez Rated New Outperform at Cowen; PT $82
* Sweco Rated New Buy at DNB Markets; PT 135 kronor
* United Internet Resumed Buy at Deutsche Bank; PT 23 euros (+)
* Wynnstay Rated New Buy at Canaccord; PT 520 pence (+)

>>> Call
* Akzo Nobel Drops in ‘Overreaction’ to Conference Comments: MS
* Inditex Earnings Reaffirm Organic Market Share Gains: Jefferies (+)

>>> Stoxx 600 Pre-Market Indications

  • Fresenius Medical (FME TH) +1.1%
    • UBS upgrades stock to neutral: APA
  • Inditex (IXD1 TH) -1%
    • Inditex 1H Ebit Beats Estimates
  • Adyen (1N8 TH) -1%
  • Vestas (VWSB TH) -1%
  • Nel (D7G TH) -1.1%
  • Stellantis (8TI TH) -1.1%
  • Bayer (BAYN TH) -1.3%
  • Schneider Electric (SND TH) -1.4%
  • BP (BPE5 TH) -1.7%
  • Alstom (AOMD TH) -2%
  • Knorr-Bremse (KBX TH) -2.1%
    • Knorr-Bremse Rated New Underweight at Barclays; PT 45 euros