>>> US Close Dow +0.04% S&P -0.07% Nasdaq +0.00% Russell -0.75%

Closing Stock Market Summary
Today's trade featured a negative bias throughout most of the session despite an initial move higher than saw the S&P 500 run into resistance at its all-time high close (4,796.56). Decliners led advancers by a nearly 2-to-1 margin at the NYSE and by a 4-to-3 margin at the Nasdaq.

The Russell 2000 closed with a 0.8% loss while the three major indices settled little changed from yesterday after climbing off session lows thanks to positive price action in some mega cap stocks. The Vanguard Mega Cap Growth ETF (MGK) was down 0.9% when the indices were near session lows, but the MGK closed with a 0.2% gain.

Market participants were digesting a Consumer Price Index (CPI) report for December that was slightly hotter than the market's hopeful expectations. Total CPI increased 3.4% year-over-year in December, up from 3.1% in November, while the core reading decelerated slightly to 3.9% from 4.0%.

Also, weekly initial jobless claims remain below recession-like levels at 202,000, which is down from 203,000 in the prior week.

The market's rate cut expectations ultimately strengthened despite data that isn't likely to persuade the Fed to cut rates as much as the market hopes, and despite Cleveland Fed President Mester (FOMC voter) saying on BloombergTV that March is probably too early for a rate cut.

The fed funds futures market still pricing in six rate cuts this year, beginning with a 71.4% implied likelihood of a March cut, up from 67.4% that was seen yesterday, according to the CME FedWatch Tool.

Treasuries settled with gains, but buying really picked up in response to a strong $21 bln 30-yr bond reopening rather than this morning's data. The 2-yr note yield fell nine basis points to 4.27% and the 10-yr note yield declined five basis points to 3.98%.

Still, stocks languished under selling pressure despite the increase in rate cut expectations and the positive price action in Treasuries. Nine of the 11 S&P 500 sectors registered a decline. The utilities sector was the worst performer by a decent margin, sinking 2.3%.

In other news, there was a lot of buzz around trading spot Bitcoin ETFs today, and related companies, after the SEC announced yesterday that it had approved 11 spot Bitcoin ETFs.
  • S&P 500: +0.2%
  • Dow Jones Industrial Average: +0.1%
  • Nasdaq Composite: -0.3%
  • S&P Midcap 400: -1.8%
  • Russell 2000: -3.5%

Reviewing today's economic data:
  • December CPI 0.3% (consensus 0.2%); Prior 0.1%; December Core CPI 0.3% (consensus 0.2%); Prior 0.3%
    • The key takeaway from the report is that inflation, while improved, has lost some of its downward momentum. Therefore, the Fed isn't likely to be in a rush to cut interest rates -- at least not yet based on this latest CPI reading.
  • Weekly Initial Claims 202K (consensus 209K); Prior was revised to 203K from 220K; Weekly Continuing Claims 1.834 mln; Prior was revised to 1.868 mln from 1.855 mln
    • The key takeaway from the report is the recognition that employers, in general, are still reluctant to cut employees from payrolls. That is a positive consideration as it relates to the outlook for labor and the economy, which means it may not be a positive consideration as it relates to the market's outlook for rate cuts.
Friday's economic data is limited to the December PPI (consensus 0.1%; prior 0.0%) and Core PPI (consensus 0.2%; prior 0.1%) at 8:30 ET.

WSJ : Novartis Pursuit of Cytokinetics Cools

Novartis Pursuit of Cytokinetics Cools
Swiss pharma giant had been expected to clinch a deal for the heart-drug developer as soon as this week

Novartis NOVN -0.25%decrease; red down pointing triangle has backed away from its pursuit of Cytokinetics CYTK -22.31%decrease; red down pointing triangle, putting a damper on the prospects of a deal for the promising heart-drug developer.

The Swiss drug giant had been closing in on a purchase of South San Francisco-based Cytokinetics, with an agreement expected as soon as this week, The Wall Street Journal reported Monday. But Novartis, which had been pursuing the biotech for several months, backed away sometime in the past day or two, according to the people.

After jumping on the Journal report, Cytokinetics shares have been falling as the days ticked by without an announcement, on fears there wouldn’t be a deal. Its market value now stands at just above $8 billion.

Cytokinetics has been running a sale process, and it is possible Novartis or another suitor could re-emerge or the company could pursue another type of deal like a capital raise.

Cytokinetics is focused on so-called muscle activators and inhibitors as potential treatments for people with debilitating diseases in which muscle performance is compromised, according to its website.

The company’s shares soared last month on the back of successful data for its experimental heart drug that treats hypertrophic cardiomyopathy, the most common genetic heart disease, which can lead to blood clots, strokes and, in rare cases, death.

Cytokinetics reported that the drug worked safely shortly before the new year, sending its stock up more than 60% that day.

Truist analysts forecast the Cytokinetics drug would generate up to $3.6 billion in sales by 2032.

Cytokinetics shares had been buoyed in recent weeks by reports of a possible sale of the company.

Novartis, one of the world’s biggest pharmaceutical companies by sales, faces declining revenue later this decade after several products lose patent protection, including heart drug Entresto, which accounted for $4.6 billion of Novartis’s $50.5 billion global sales in 2022.

Its shares have been rising lately, thanks in part to positive study results for drugs including Kisqali for breast cancer and the rollout of cancer radiotherapy Pluvicto.

Cytokinetics’ cardiomyopathy therapy could complement drugs like the cholesterol treatment called Leqvio that Novartis acquired as part of a nearly $10 billion deal for the Medicines Company in 2020.

But Novartis Chief Executive Vasant Narasimhan said in an interview on CNBC on Tuesday that “Our overall M&A strategy…is really to focus on sub-$5 billion assets.”

>>> Europe : Brokers Upgrades & Downgrades - 11th of January 2024 V2(++)

>>> Up
* AFRY AB Raised to Hold at Handelsbanken (+)
* Amazon PT Raised to $185 from $175 at Morgan Stanley
* Antofagasta Raised to Outperform at RBC; PT 1,800 pence
* Belships Raised to Buy at Pareto Securities; PT 23 kroner
* Carlsberg Raised to Buy at BofA (+)
* EasyJet Raised to Buy at BofA; PT 640 pence (+)
* Hermes Raised to Neutral at Goldman; PT 2,060 euros
* J D Wetherspoon Raised to Hold at Numis; PT 750 pence
* Juniper Raised to Equal-Weight at Morgan Stanley; PT $40
* Mercialys Raised to Buy at Jefferies; PT 11.50 euros
* Merlin Properties Cut to Hold at Jefferies; PT 10.30 euros
* Royal Unibrew Raised to Neutral at BofA (+)
* SSAB Raised to Buy at UBS (++)
* Segro Raised to Buy at Kepler Cheuvreux; PT 970 pence
* SGS Raised to Buy at SocGen; PT 86 Swiss francs
* Zegna Group Raised to Buy at Goldman; PT $18.70

>>> Down
* Albemarle Cut to Hold at Deutsche Bank
* Aspocomp Group Cut to Reduce at Inderes; PT 3.50 euros
* Atrium Ljungberg Cut to Hold at Carnegie (+)
* Barratt Cut to Hold at Liberum; PT 550 pence
* Barry Callebaut Cut to Sell at UBS; PT 1,180 Swiss francs (++)
* BayWa Cut to Hold at Kepler Cheuvreux; PT 34 euros (++)
* Berkeley Cut to Hold at Liberum; PT 4,800 pence
* Catena Cut to Hold at Carnegie (++)
* Crest Nicholson Cut to Hold at Liberum; PT 230 pence
* Diageo Cut to Neutral at BofA (+)
* Fabege Cut to Sell at Carnegie (++)
* Getinge Cut to Hold at Handelsbanken (+)
* INWIT Cut to Reduce at Kepler Cheuvreux; PT 10.50 euros (++)
* Juniper Cut to Hold at Jefferies; PT $40
* Kering Cut to Hold at Equita; PT 450 euros (+)
* Komax Cut to Hold at Mirabaud Securities; PT 220 Swiss francs (+)
* LEG Immobilien Cut to Hold at Jefferies; PT 80 euros
* Lindab Cut to Hold at Carnegie; PT 205 kronor (++)
* Lufthansa Cut to Underperform at BofA; PT 7.60 euros (+)
* Lyft Cut to Neutral at Goldman; PT $15
* Moncler Cut to Neutral at BofA (+)
* Nordea Bank Cut to Underweight at JPMorgan
* QT Group Cut to Hold at Danske Bank Markets (++)
* Redrow Cut to Hold at Liberum; PT 620 pence
* Salvatore Ferragamo Cut to Hold at Equita; PT 12.30 euros (+)
* Spirax Cut to Reduce at HSBC; PT 8,400 pence
* Swatch Cut to Neutral at Goldman; PT 260 Swiss francs
* Swatch Cut to Neutral at BofA (+)
* Titanium Cut to Reduce at Inderes; PT 17 euros
* Verbio Vereinigte Bioenergie AG Cut to Sell at Deutsche Bank
* WPP Cut to Sell at UBS; PT 700 pence (++)

>>> Initiation
* British Land Rated New Buy at Berenberg; PT 469 pence
* Land Sec. Rated New Buy at Berenberg; PT 807 pence
* Teleperformance Reinstated Outperform at BNPP Exane
* Voltalia Rated New Buy at TP ICAP Midcap; PT 15 euros (+)

>>> Call
* Amazon PT, Estimates Raised at Morgan Stanley on Prime Video Ads
* Antofagasta Upgraded at RBC on Rapid Tightening of Copper Supply
* Barry Callebaut Drops as UBS Double-Downgrades on Cocoa Pricing (++)
* Darktrace Update a Sign of Investment Paying Off: Jefferies (+)
* Goldman Sachs Trims 2024 Global Luxury Industry Growth Forecast (+)
* Land Securities, British Land Get Buy Ratings at Berenberg
* Mercialys Raised, LEG Immo and Merlin Downgraded at Jefferies
* Nordea Bank Gets Only Sell as JPMorgan Sees Risks to Downside (+)

FT : AP Møller-Maersk chief warns Red Sea shipping disruption may last for month

AP Møller-Maersk chief warns Red Sea shipping disruption may last for months
Vincent Clerc says container ship attacks by Houthis could have ‘significant consequences’ for global growth

The boss of shipping giant AP Møller-Maersk has warned it could take months to reopen the crucial Red Sea trading route, risking an economic and inflationary hit to the global economy, companies and consumers.

Vincent Clerc, Maersk’s chief executive, told the Financial Times on Thursday that the closure of the Red Sea to most shipping after a series of attacks from Yemen’s Houthi militants was “brutal and dramatic”. He added there were “no winners” as a result of the situation, which has forced vessels to take long and costly detours around South Africa.

“It’s unclear to us if we are talking about re-establishing safe passage into the Red Sea in a matter of days, weeks or months . . . It could potentially have quite significant consequences on global growth,” he said.

Maersk is a bellwether of global trade, carrying about a fifth of ocean freight. Clerc urged the international community — led by the US — to do more to allow the Red Sea to reopen for ships following a recent escalation of attacks in the region.

A Maersk vessel was attacked in mid-December, causing the Danish group to suspend journeys through the Red Sea, a crucial link between Asia and Europe. The group restarted trips a few days later after a US-led military coalition tried to create safe passage, but it suffered a further attack at the end of December. Last week, Maersk said it would divert ships from the Red Sea around Africa “for the foreseeable future”.

Diverting container ships via the Cape of Good Hope adds about 13,000km in distance and hundreds of dollars per container, Clerc said.

“At this time when inflation is a big issue, it’s putting inflationary pressure on our costs, on our customers, and ultimately on consumers in Europe and the US,” he added. “In the short run, it could cause significant disruptions at the end of January, February and into March.”

Maersk’s fuel bill will be 50 per cent higher as a result of ships taking the longer route. If unresolved, ships will soon be out of position, threatening logistics and global supply chains, Clerc said.

“We are urging the international community to mobilise and do what it needs to do to reopen the [Bab-el-Mandeb] strait. It is one of the main arteries of the global economy, and it is clogged right now.

“It could have wider ranging consequences not only for the industry but for end consumers, product availability, the global economy as a whole,” he added.

Maersk’s share price has risen by a quarter in the past month as container freight rates have shot up.

Asked how it felt to be making more money from a situation that was hurting his customers and the global economy, Clerc replied: “Let me be completely unambiguous: our goal is to establish safe passage and go back to a normal trading pattern. That is what we are deploying all our assets in doing. While we are doing this, we have to sail around the Cape of Good Hope and there are consequences of this.”

He added that Maersk had little visibility over the security situation around the Red Sea as it was “morphing” all the time as well as being linked to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.

“The modus operandi evolves. The type of weapon evolves. The geographical range expands. There are a lot of things for us that make the risk levels hard to assess. So we need to be prudent,” Clerc said.