FT : Ancient European migration patterns linked to modern-day disease risks

Ancient European migration patterns linked to modern-day disease risks
Study harnesses millennia-old human DNA to plot ‘genetic divide’ on origin and spread of health risks

Ancient migration patterns reveal why some Europeans are more at risk than others from a range of diseases including multiple sclerosis and Alzheimer’s, according to groundbreaking genomic research.

Millennia-old movements of hunter-gatherers, farmers and steppe pastoralists help explain the modern-day “genetic divide” in aspects such as height and susceptibility to diseases such as diabetes, say four papers published in Nature on Wednesday. 

The pan-continental study offers a surprising account of how some prominent public health scourges have evolved — and possible clues on how to manage these risks in the modern era. 

“This project has changed my view of both myself . . . and the history of Europe,” said Eske Willerslev, a professor at Copenhagen and Cambridge universities and one of the study’s authors. “What these papers are doing is setting the framework for how you use these ancient human genomes to understand the origin and spread of disease risk.”

Willerslev and colleagues sequenced genetic data from 317 radiocarbon-dated ancient skeletons and added this to existing information from 1,300 more specimens. The samples dated back as far as about 15,000 years and covered social transitions through the ages of hunter-gathering, farming and pastoralism. 

A crucial turning point was the arrival of neolithic farmers from the Middle East in western Europe about 11,000 years ago, the researchers discovered. This created a “genomic boundary” on the continent that ran from the Black Sea to the Baltic and lasted for thousands of years, with enduring consequences for public health and disease prevalence.  

“Archaeologists have been talking about this divide for a long time,” said Morten Erik Allentoft, professor in evolutionary genomics and biodiversity at Copenhagen university, who was involved in the research. “But witnessing this in genetic data is one of the really cool things about this [study].”   


The insights on multiple sclerosis came from comparing part of the ancient data with the genetic information of more than 410,000 present-day self-identified white Britons.

MS is a so-called autoimmune disease, in which the human body hurts itself through its defensive response to invading microbes, with damage to nerve cells in the brain and spinal cord that can cause serious disability. This disease, which affects more women than men, is most prevalent in Europe and in particular in the northern part.

Yamnaya pastoralists from the Pontic Steppe linking eastern Europe to central Asia brought genes associated with a heightened MS risk to Europe about 5,000 years ago, the researchers found. The Yamnaya’s higher concentration in northern Europe helps explain the greater prevalence of MS there.

The findings suggest a striking case of an ancient boon becoming a modern burden. The pastoralists’ genetic profile may have done them more good than harm, as it helped protect them against diseases carried by their herds.

“These variants were giving [ancient] people an advantage of some kind,” said William Barrie, co-author of the MS paper and a research associate at Cambridge university. “We think it was protecting them from their animals’ pathogens.”

Another strand of the research looked at how historical migration linked genetically to predisposition to various contemporary illnesses. Western hunter-gatherer ancestry — prominent in the Baltic states, Belarus, Poland and Russia — was more strongly linked to traits related to Alzheimer’s, high cholesterol levels, blood pressure and diabetes.

By contrast, neolithic farmer lineage, more prominent in southern Europe, was connected to a greater disposition to anxiety, guilty feelings and irritability. 

The scientists further found that Steppe antecedents appeared to play a part in why modern northern Europeans are taller on average than southern counterparts. This ancestry peaks in Ireland, Iceland, Norway and Sweden.

The study shows how “shifts in culture and lifestyle” of ancient human populations “have had long-term effects and are still affecting us today”, said Selina Brace, principal researcher in ancient DNA at the Natural History Museum.

“Anything that moves in the direction of a greater understanding of these diseases holds potential to help treat them,” said Brace, who was not part of the research.

The researchers’ discoveries about disease risks in white Europeans highlight the potential to apply the approach more widely both within and beyond the continent. 

The techniques should be used to deepen understanding of how vulnerability to illnesses has evolved in populations around the world, argued Samira Asgari, assistant professor at New York’s Icahn School of Medicine at Mount Sinai, and Lionel Pousaz, a science writer. 

“It is crucial to extend these studies to diverse human populations to better understand how differences in population history might have contributed to the risk of autoimmune diseases such as multiple sclerosis,” according to a commentary also published in Nature by the two authors, who were not involved in the European research.

“Although human biology is shared, each population has a unique history and focusing on a single population limits opportunities for discoveries that can bring insights that advance medicine.”

FT : Eurozone heading for another downturn, warns ECB vice-president

Eurozone heading for another downturn, warns ECB vice-president
Rapid pace of disinflation seen last year likely to ‘slow down’ in 2024

The eurozone economy looks set for another downturn in the fourth quarter, while a recent pick-up in inflation is expected to persist in the coming months, the vice-president of the European Central Bank has warned.

In comments aimed at damping market expectations of an interest-rate cut in March, Luis de Guindos said in a speech in Madrid on Wednesday that the rapid pace of disinflation seen last year was likely to “slow down in 2024 and to pause temporarily at the beginning of the year”. Consumer price growth in the eurozone picked up from 2.4 per cent in November to 2.9 per cent in December.

He added that soft indicators pointed to an economic contraction in December. That would confirm “the possibility of a technical recession in the second half of 2023 and weak prospects for the near term”, he said.

His comments underline how the ECB faces an awkward decision when it meets on January 25 over how early to start cutting rates when the economic outlook is weak and inflation remains above its target of 2 per cent. While many economists predict eurozone inflation will hit that target this year, the central bank is not forecasting this until the third quarter of 2025.

The ECB’s cautious view on the pace of disinflation was underlined by its executive board member Isabel Schnabel, who wrote in a Q&A session on social media site X: “It is too early to discuss rate cuts.”

To be sure that inflation would return sustainably to the ECB’s target “requires additional data confirming the disinflationary process,” she said, adding: “Geopolitical tensions are one of the upside risks to inflation as they could drive up energy prices or freight costs. That’s why we need to remain vigilant.”

De Guindos did not say what a likely recession would mean for monetary policy — sticking to the ECB’s oft-repeated line that “future decisions will continue to follow a data-dependent approach to determining the appropriate level and duration of restriction”.


Carsten Brzeski, an economist at Dutch bank ING, said the central banker’s comments about inflation picking up reduced the likelihood of a rate cut by the ECB in the first quarter. “If you connect the dots, it is another argument against March rate cut expectations,” he said.

De Guindos said he expected inflation in the eurozone to follow a similar path to Spain, where it dropped below 2 per cent in June 2023 before rising above 3 per cent in the final four months of last year as the government phased out energy subsidies. 

“Positive energy base effects will kick in and energy-related compensatory measures are set to expire, leading to a transitory pick-up in inflation,” he said.

The eurozone economy stagnated for much of last year and shrank 0.1 per cent in the three months to September from the previous quarter. 

It is widely expected to stage a mild recovery this year thanks to lower inflation and higher wages. The ECB had forecast last month that eurozone growth would accelerate from 0.1 per cent in the fourth quarter of 2023 to 0.4 per cent in the third quarter of this year. 

But De Guindos cast doubt on this by saying growth was “disappointing” and “the slowdown in activity appears to be broad-based, with construction and manufacturing being particularly affected”. He added: “Services are also set to soften in the coming months as a result of weaker activity in the rest of the economy.”

His gloomy outlook stems largely from a closely watched survey of eurozone purchasing managers that pointed to a continued decline of business activity at the end of last year. The S&P Global PMI index was revised up last week but that left it unchanged at 47.6, remaining well below the 50-mark that separates contraction from expansion. 

De Guindos said the eurozone labour market “continues to be particularly resilient to the current slowdown” after unemployment in the bloc returned to a record low of 6.4 per cent in November.