FT : Spain roils defence merger backed by Dan Loeb’s Third Point

Spain roils defence merger backed by Dan Loeb’s Third Point
Aspiring national champion Indra’s mooted takeover of EM&E dogged by questions over role of Escribano brothers

Spain has thrown an obstacle into the path of a defence takeover backed by US hedge fund billionaire Dan Loeb, saying it cannot take place until two brothers resolve conflicts of interest over the companies involved.

Spain’s state holding company, which owns a stake in defence giant Indra alongside Loeb, sent a letter to the company expressing “concern” about conflicts of interest dogging a potential acquisition of weapons manufacturer EM&E. Loeb’s Third Point hedge fund acquired a small stake in Indra this year and supports the deal.

Ángel and Javier Escribano, pillars of the Spanish defence sector, are the respective chairs of Indra and EM&E and own stakes in both companies. The Spanish state is Indra’s biggest shareholder with 28 per cent.

Madrid wants to turn Indra — a radar and sensor specialist — into a European defence champion that can benefit from a surge in military spending spurred by the Ukraine war and the Trump administration’s insistence that Europe take more responsibility for its defence.

Third Point bought its stake in Indra to capitalise on the defence spending boom and sees the acquisition of EM&E as “critical” to boosting its manufacturing, said people familiar with the matter.

But Spain’s leftwing government is uneasy over the roles of the Escribano brothers — founders and sole shareholders of EM&E, which also owns 14.3 per cent of Indra. They both have seats on Indra’s board and Ángel was appointed as chair last year.

Sepi, Spain’s state holding company, said in a filing late on Wednesday that it had sent a letter to Indra conveying “its concern about the impact that the conflict of interest is having on the analysis of the transaction, despite the mitigation measures that have been put in place”.

It added: “Sepi has requested that the conflict be resolved in order to continue analysing the transaction and to adopt a decision that is as advantageous as possible for Indra.”

Sepi declined to comment on Spanish press reports that said its preferred solution was for Ángel Escribano to step down as Indra’s chair. The government approved his appointment in January 2025.

Indra shares dropped 4 per cent on Thursday, trimming its market value to €9.7bn.

Third Point has not revealed the details of its stake, though it would be obliged to disclose any holding greater than 3 per cent.

In a letter to Indra’s board in February, Loeb urged it to seal the takeover of EM&E “without further delay” even as he acknowledged the reports on potential conflicts of interest.

A combination of the companies “is clearly value-enhancing and aligned with the interests of all stakeholders, including shareholders, employees, customers and the Spanish state”.

While some shareholders have argued that the deal would align the interests of the Escribano brothers with those of the Spanish state, Sepi dismissed that claim in its own letter.

“Sepi has stated that any potential transaction with EM&E should not be conceived as a means of resolving the conflict of interest, nor should it be influenced by it. Rather, this conflict should be resolved before proceeding with the analysis of the transaction,” it said.

In an attempt to quell conflict questions, Ángel Escribano has recused himself from all discussions about EM&E at Indra. His brother has also excluded himself from Indra board debates on the subject. Indra chief executive José Vicente de los Mozos is leading the push for the deal.

EM&E’s signature products are weapons systems for tanks that combine high-calibre gun barrels with cameras and software for identifying targets and precision firing. It reported sales of €488mn and ebitda of €195mn last year.

EM&E’s capacity to manufacture heavy equipment would fill a gap at tech-oriented Indra, making the strategic logic of the deal “compelling”, Loeb wrote.

>>> SPX — ISLAND REVERSAL FORMING · 19 MAR

──────────────────────────────────────
SPX — ISLAND REVERSAL FORMING · 19 MAR
──────────────────────────────────────

▸ SPX gapping BELOW its 200d MA (~6,523) on the open
▸ Pattern: Island Reversal — a cluster of candles
stranded between two exhaustion gaps

[GAP UP] → [ISLAND ~6,640–6,940] → [GAP DOWN today]
↕ isolated
stranded above 200d MA

Chart (schematic · daily):

7000 ·····················┬···············
/\
6840 ················/\ / \············ ← island top
/ \/ \
6700 ·············/ candles \··········
/ \
6624 ──────────/ ←gap up \── ← yesterday close
\
6523 ══════════════ 200d MA ════════╲═══ ← BREAK
↓ gap down today
6400 ····································

6132 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - ← target / S1

5876 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - ← 200w MA / S2

RSI ~42 · declining · not yet oversold

──────────────────────────────────────
KEY LEVELS
──────────────────────────────────────
▸ 200d MA 6,523 → now resistance if gap confirms
▸ S1 6,132 → next structural support
▸ S2 5,876 → 200w MA / long-term floor
▸ Resistance 6,840 → prior island base / SMAVG

──────────────────────────────────────
SCENARIOS
──────────────────────────────────────
BEAR (base) — open < 6,523 / no intraday reclaim
▸ Island reversal confirmed
▸ Target: 6,132 in coming sessions
▸ RSI room for further downside before extreme

BULL INVALIDATION — reclaim 200d + close > 6,600
▸ Pattern fails → short squeeze
▸ Target recapture: 6,840 area

──────────────────────────────────────
IMPLICATION
──────────────────────────────────────
▸ Asymmetric risk/reward skewed to downside
▸ Avoid adding longs on open gap
▸ Hedges (SPX puts / VIX calls) remain attractive
▸ Watch 30-min close: 200d reclaim = abort bear case

──────────────────────────────────────
Laurent Chekroun · Graham Advisors
Not investment advice
──────────────────────────────────────

>>> AI AGENTS AS APP REPLACEMENT — HOW TO PLAY IT

AI AGENTS AS APP REPLACEMENT — HOW TO PLAY IT
Laurent Chekroun | 19 Mar 2026 | THEMATIC / EQUITY

- We are at an inflection: AI agents are beginning to replace mobile apps as the primary interface layer
- The shift mirrors mobile vs. desktop — agents act on behalf of the user; apps stop being the front door
- Goldman: 'what we do with apps — manually, in piecemeal fashion — will be done automatically soon'
- Gartner: 40% of enterprise apps to embed AI agents by end-2026 vs. 5% in 2025 — eightfold jump

--- THE INVESTMENT STACK — 4 LAYERS ---

Layer 1 — Orchestration (highest conviction, near-term)
- [LONG] PLTR — operating system for enterprise agents; extreme switching costs; ARR compounder
- [LONG] NOW — ServiceNow pushing agentic stack; enterprise deployment wave accelerating
- [LONG] PATH — UiPath: 950 clients, 365k+ processes on Maestro; rev +10% CAGR, EBITDA +22% to FY28

Layer 2 — Infrastructure (structural, long duration)
- [LONG] NVDA — Rubin platform H2-26; demand still outstrips supply; physical AI optionality
- [LONG] GOOGL — cloud + Search + YouTube moat; Gemini agents; ~30x 2026E, double-digit rev growth
- [LONG] AMZN — AWS largest cloud infra; Bedrock (managed foundation models); Alexa+ agentic pivot

Layer 3 — Disrupted (structural short / underweight)
- [UW] AAPL — App Store economics at risk if agents bypass the app layer; 12-18m story but unpriced
- Legacy SaaS with no agentic pivot: watch CRM penetration from NOW/PLTR displacement

Layer 4 — Enterprise Embedded (medium conviction)
- [WATCH] MSFT — Copilot + Azure AI Foundry; OpenAI dependency is key risk (45% of Azure backlog)
- [WATCH] SAP — European angle; underowned by HFs; agentic ERP is a 2027 catalyst

--- PORTFOLIO EXPRESSION ---
- Core long: PLTR + GOOGL — orchestration + cloud moat, complementary exposure
- Satellite: PATH — higher beta, pure-play enterprise agent deployment wave
- Short side: AAPL App Store revenue — medium-term structural, not a Q2 trade
- Entry: 2026 'anything-but-AI' selloff has left several names at a discount — improving r/r

--- KEY RISKS ---
- Enterprise AI security concerns slowing rollout (zero-trust for agents still nascent)
- Valuation stretch on PLTR/NVDA — sentiment can de-rate faster than fundamentals deteriorate
- AAPL short timing uncertain — App Store revenue defended near-term by developer lock-in

This note is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. | Laurent Chekroun

TechCrunch : Nothing CEO Carl Pei says smartphone apps will disappear as AI agen

Nothing CEO Carl Pei says smartphone apps will disappear as AI agents take their place

Carl Pei, co-founder and CEO of Nothing, is imagining a future beyond the iPhone — and it’s a device powered by AI agents, not running apps.

“In terms of AI in software, I think people should understand that apps are going to disappear,” said Pei, whose consumer electronics brand makes unique smartphones and other accessories. “So, if you’re a founder or a startup and your app is like where the core value lies, that will be disrupted whether you like it or not.”

Pei made these comments during an interview at the SXSW conference in Austin on Wednesday.

The founder has talked about an AI-first device before, as this vision helped the company close its $200 million Series C funding round last year. At the time, Nothing was pitching the idea of a new kind of smartphone using AI and personalization technology that’s accurate enough for its users to not feel they had to go behind the AI and double-check its output.

At SXSW, Pei expanded on his vision for the AI-first device and the steps needed to get there.

The initial step, which is being tested by some companies today, is an AI feature that can execute a command on the users’ behalf, like booking flights or hotels. Pei, however, dismissed this step as being “super boring.”

The next step is where things could get more interesting, as the AI begins to learn a user’s intentions long-term. For instance, if you wanted to be healthier, the device could give you nudges to help you accomplish your goals.

“I think it gets even more powerful when it starts surfacing suggestions for you; you don’t have to manually come up with an idea…when the system knows us so well, it will come up with things that we don’t even [know] we wanted,” Pei explained, comparing this concept to something like ChatGPT’s memory feature.

In describing how he pictured an AI-first smartphone, Pei said it would be a device that would do things for you without needing to be commanded to.

“The current way we use phones is very old-school. It’s pre-iPhone…there used to be Palm Pilots and PDAs back in the day. And if you think about the user experience, it’s still very similar,” Pei said. “You have lock screens, home screens, apps. You browse different apps. Each app is like a full-screen thing. There’s some kind of app store that allows you to download more apps. So it hasn’t really changed for like, 20 years.”

This frustrated him because the technology consumers are using has evolved quite a bit, but the products we use have not. Even simple tasks have us jumping through multiple steps, he explained.

“It’s very hard to get things done on a phone,” Pei said. “Let’s say we want to grab coffee. That’s an intention. But to execute that intention, we have to go through so many different steps and so many different apps. It’s probably like four apps to grab coffee with somebody — some messaging app, some kind of maps, Uber, calendar.”

He continued: “I think the future of smartphones or operating systems should just be: ‘I know you very well, and if I know your intention, I just do it for you,’ instead of having to go through all the apps manually.”

“It should just do it through AI,” he said.

This also means devices would have an interface that’s not focused on apps for humans to navigate, but would instead feature an interface designed for the AI agent to use.

That doesn’t mean apps are going away in the near-term, Pei cautioned. Nothing’s own operating system even allows users to vibe code their own mini apps today. But eventually, the AI will need to be able to use the “app” in a frictionless way, not trying to mimic human touch on the smartphones by moving through menus and tapping options.

“That’s not the future. The future is not the agent using a human interface. You need to create an interface for the agent to use. I think that’s the more future-proof way of doing it,” Pei said.

>>> Europe : Brokers Upgrades & Downgrades - 19th of March 2026 V3(++)

>>> Up
* ADP Raised to Buy at UBS; PT 127 euros
* Buzzi SpA Raised to Overweight at JPMorgan; PT 58 euros
* Carnival Plc Raised to Overweight at Morgan Stanley
* Carnival Raised to Overweight at Morgan Stanley; PT $31
* Couche-Tard PT Raised to C$90 from C$85 at Raymond James (++)
* Diploma PT Raised to 7,500 pence from 6,600 pence at Berenberg
* Evonik Raised to Overweight at Barclays; PT 17 euros
* Fagron PT Raised to 30 euros from 24 euros at KBC Securities (++)
* Fraport Raised to Buy at BofA (+)
* Jabil PT Raised to $300 from $260 at Raymond James (++)
* Jabil PT Raised to $300 from $250 at Argus (++)
* Jabil PT Raised to $290 from $255 at Stifel (++)
* Kering Raised to Outperform at Avior Capital Markets
* LyondellBasell PT Raised to $75 from $52 at Deutsche Bank (++)
* Mastercard Raised to Outperform at BNP Paribas; PT $600
* Micron PT Raised to $700 from $450 at Cantor (++)
* Micron PT Raised to $510 from $430 at Citi (++)
* Micron PT Raised to $600 from $450 at KeyBanc (++)
* Micron PT Raised to $675 from $450 at Barclays (++)
* Neste Raised to Buy at OP Corporate Bank; PT 33 euros (++)
* Nordea Bank Raised to Buy at ABG; PT 17.15 euros
* Nvidia PT Raised to $323 from $291 at Raymond James (++)
* Stadler Rail Raised to Outperform at Oddo BHF
* Talanx Raised to Buy at DZ Bank; PT 125 euros (+)
* Tandem Diabetes Raised to Buy at Truist Secs; PT $35
* Tecnicas Reunidas Raised to Buy at JB Capital Markets
* Wizz Air Raised to Neutral at Citi

>>> Down
* Air France-KLM PT Cut to 9 euros from 11 euros at Deutsche Bank (+)
* Akzo Nobel Cut to Equal-Weight at Barclays; PT 47 euros
* Atria Cut to Reduce at Inderes; PT 18.50 euros
* Beneteau PT Cut to 7.35 euros from 8.50 euros at UBS (++)
* Bunzl Cut to Equal-Weight at Barclays; PT 2,250 pence
* Coloplast Cut to Sell at Nordea; PT 400 kroner
* EasyJet PT Cut to 340 pence from 465 pence at Deutsche Bank (+)
* FDM Group PT Cut to 130 pence from 174 pence at Stifel (++)
* HelloFresh Cut to Hold at mwb research AG; PT 4.10 euros (++)
* Lufthansa PT Cut to 7 euros from 8.60 euros at Deutsche Bank (+)
* Manitou BF Cut to Hold at Kepler Cheuvreux
* Neste Cut to Neutral at Goldman; PT 27 euros
* Nokia Cut to Sell at Inderes; PT 5.20 euros
* Pan African Cut to Equal-Weight at ABSA Securities

>>> Initiation
* Dometic Rated New Buy at SB1 Markets; PT 30 kronor
* Finexity Rated New Buy at GBC AG; PT 72 euros (++)
* Inventiva SACA ADRs Rated New Buy at Truist Secs; PT $13
* Merck KGaA Rated New Market Perform at Bernstein; PT 112 euros (++)
* Rocket Lab Rated New Buy at Clear Street; PT $88
* SoFi Technologies Rated New Equal-Weight at Wells Fargo; PT $19
* YouGov Reinstated Buy at Canaccord; PT 450 pence (+)

>>> Call
* Carnival Raised to Overweight at Morgan Stanley on Risk-Reward (++)
* Novo Gets New Sell Rating as Bernstein Sees US Underperformance
* Sanofi Shares Advance After New Outperform Rating at Bernstein

>>> US Gapping down

Gapping down
In reaction to earnings/guidance
:
  • CSIQ -19.7%, ALM -14.3%, HTFL -7.7%, MU -6.9% (also increases dividend), BABA -4.6%, AVAH -4.3%, ACN -3.5%, RCAT -3.4%, TITN -2.7%, LAC -2.1%, FDMT -1.1%, DRI -1.1%
Other news:
  • TATT -7.3% (files mixed securities shelf offering)
  • GRDN -6.4% (announces pricing of upsized underwritten public offering of class A common stock)
  • UUUU -4.5% (amended the structure of consideration to be provided by Energy Fuels to each ASM shareholder pursuant to a court-approved scheme of arrangement)
  • NAMM -4.4% (names new CEO)
  • IAUX -4.3% (prices offering of $250 mln of unsecured convertible senior notes due 2031)
  • RCMT -3.1% (to delay 10-K filing)
  • XPOF -3% (finalizes settlement with FTC)
  • EVO -2.5% (receives $10 mln milestone from Bristol Myers Squibb (BMY) protein degradation collaboration for clinical study initiation)
  • TRON -2% (stock offering by selling shareholders)
  • CRML -1.9% (stock offering by selling shareholders)
  • STOK -1.6% (files mixed securities shelf offering)
  • SOUN -1.1% (CFO to step down)

>>> US Gapping up

Gapping up
In reaction to earnings/guidance
:
  • ELA +12.1%, EQPT +9.9%, CAL +9.3%, SATL +8.4%, DLO +7.5% (also authorizes new $300 mln share repurchase program), FIVE +6.7%, MOV +4.1%, TIGR +2.8%, ALVO +2.1%
Other news:
  • GOAI +4.9% (files for $250 mln mixed securities shelf offering)
  • ARKO +4.4% (CFO bought 40000 shares at $5.015-5.080 worth ~$203K)
  • COTY +2.4% (revamps Board)
  • IBCP +2% (to merge with HCB Financial)
  • ARMP +2% (delays announcement of fourth quarter results and provides corporate update)
  • RKLB +1% (secures $190 mln contract for HASTE launches)

>>> US Research Calls I

Research Calls I
  • Upgrades:
    • Carnival (CCL) upgraded to Overweight from Equal Weight at Morgan Stanley, tgt $31
    • Cross Country (CCRN) upgraded to Outperform from Neutral at Wedbush; tgt $15
    • Five Below (FIVE) upgraded to Outperform from Market Perform at William Blair
    • Fluence Energy (FLNC) upgraded to Neutral from Sell at Guggenheim
    • Mastercard (MA) upgraded to Outperform from Neutral at BNP Paribas Exane, tgt $600
    • MoonLake Immunotherapeutics (MLTX) upgraded to Buy from Neutral at Rothschild & Co Redburn, tgt $40
    • Nu Holdings (NU) upgraded to Buy from Neutral at UBS, tgt $17.60
    • South State (SSB) upgraded to Outperform from Market Perform at Hovde Group, tgt $110
    • Tandem Diabetes Care (TNDM) upgraded to Buy from Hold at Truist, tgt $35
    • Union Pacific (UNP) upgraded to Outperform from In Line at Evercore ISI, tgt $262
  • Downgrades:
    • CSX (CSX) downgraded to In Line from Outperform at Evercore ISI, tgt $41
    • Freshworks (FRSH) downgraded to Perform from Outperform at Oppenheimer
    • Kinsale Capital (KNSL) downgraded to Underperform from Hold at Jefferies, tgt $312
    • Life360 (LIF) downgraded to Neutral from Buy at DA Davidson, tgt $40
    • Micron (MU) downgraded to Hold from Buy at Summit Insights
    • Xponential Fitness (XPOF) downgraded to Market Perform from Strong Buy at Raymond James
  • Others:
    • ADP (ADP) initiated with a Buy at Guggenheim, tgt $270
    • ALX Oncology (ALXO) initiated with an Overweight at Wells Fargo, tgt $5
    • Aligos Therapeutics (ALGS) assumed with a Buy at Jefferies, tgt $48
    • EnerSys (ENS) initiated with a Buy at TD Cowen, tgt $190
    • FrontView REIT (FVR) initiated with a Buy at B. Riley, tgt $20.50
    • Globe Life (GL) initiated with a Buy at Texas Capital Securities, tgt $170
    • Inventiva (IVA) initiated with a Buy at Truist, tgt $13
    • MapLight Therapeutics (MPLT) initiated with a Buy at Canaccord, tgt $35
    • Okta (OKTA) initiated with an Outperform at Macquarie, tgt $100
    • Olema Pharmaceuticals (OLMA) assumed with a Buy at Jefferies
    • Paychex (PAYX) initiated with a Neutral at Guggenheim
    • Rocket Lab USA (RKLB) initiated with a Buy at Clear Street, tgt $88
    • Saneamento Basico (SBS) initiated with a Buy at Jefferies, tgt $36.60
    • Slide Insurance Holdings (SLDE) initiated with a Buy at Texas Capital, tgt $25
    • SoFi Technologies (SOFI) initiated with an Equal Weight at Wells Fargo, tgt $19
    • Vor Biopharma (VOR) initiated with an Overweight at Wells Fargo, tgt $30

TechCrunch : Pardoned Nikola founder Trevor Milton is trying to raise $1B for AI

Pardoned Nikola founder Trevor Milton is trying to raise $1B for AI-powered planes

It’s been almost exactly one year since Trevor Milton, the founder of now-bankrupt electric truck startup Nikola, was pardoned by President Trump. Now the Wall Street Journal has published one of the first deep dives into Milton’s new effort: trying to build autonomous planes.

Milton and an “investment group” purchased a downtrodden aviation company called SyberJet Aircraft late last year and he has spent the time since trying to turn the company around. That involves bringing in “dozens” of former Nikola staff, soliciting possible investors from Saudi Arabia, and spending a few hundred thousand dollars on lobbying, according to the report.

He reportedly wants to design an entirely new avionics system from the ground up that will help the company create the “first light jet to focus on artificial-intelligence flight,” which could open the door for defense contracts. But Milton, who was convicted of fraud in 2022, told the newspaper that he thinks planes will be “10 times harder than Nikola ever was.”

>>> US Early premarket gappers

Early premarket gappers
  • Gapping up:
    • ELA +15%, DLO +9.3%, EQPT +8%, FIVE +6.8%, TIGR +4%, ARKO +3%, COTY +2.4%, ALVO +2.1%, IBCP +2%, RKLB +1.7%, CPRX +1.5%, WAT +1.2%, GEHC +0.8%, LX +0.8%
  • Gapping down:
    • ALM -16.4%, CSIQ -13.7%, GRDN -10.1%, HTFL -7.7%, MU -5.5%, BABA -4.7%, XPOF -4.4%, RCAT -4.4%, RCMT -3.1%, EVO -2.9%, GROY -2.2%, ELPC -2.1%, TRON -2%, TATT -1.8%, FDMT -1.1%, CRML -1%, STOK -0.9%, DOV -0.8%, DD -0.8%