AI AGENTS AS APP REPLACEMENT — HOW TO PLAY IT
Laurent Chekroun | 19 Mar 2026 | THEMATIC / EQUITY
- We are at an inflection: AI agents are beginning to replace mobile apps as the primary interface layer
- The shift mirrors mobile vs. desktop — agents act on behalf of the user; apps stop being the front door
- Goldman: 'what we do with apps — manually, in piecemeal fashion — will be done automatically soon'
- Gartner: 40% of enterprise apps to embed AI agents by end-2026 vs. 5% in 2025 — eightfold jump
--- THE INVESTMENT STACK — 4 LAYERS ---
Layer 1 — Orchestration (highest conviction, near-term)
- [LONG] PLTR — operating system for enterprise agents; extreme switching costs; ARR compounder
- [LONG] NOW — ServiceNow pushing agentic stack; enterprise deployment wave accelerating
- [LONG] PATH — UiPath: 950 clients, 365k+ processes on Maestro; rev +10% CAGR, EBITDA +22% to FY28
Layer 2 — Infrastructure (structural, long duration)
- [LONG] NVDA — Rubin platform H2-26; demand still outstrips supply; physical AI optionality
- [LONG] GOOGL — cloud + Search + YouTube moat; Gemini agents; ~30x 2026E, double-digit rev growth
- [LONG] AMZN — AWS largest cloud infra; Bedrock (managed foundation models); Alexa+ agentic pivot
Layer 3 — Disrupted (structural short / underweight)
- [UW] AAPL — App Store economics at risk if agents bypass the app layer; 12-18m story but unpriced
- Legacy SaaS with no agentic pivot: watch CRM penetration from NOW/PLTR displacement
Layer 4 — Enterprise Embedded (medium conviction)
- [WATCH] MSFT — Copilot + Azure AI Foundry; OpenAI dependency is key risk (45% of Azure backlog)
- [WATCH] SAP — European angle; underowned by HFs; agentic ERP is a 2027 catalyst
--- PORTFOLIO EXPRESSION ---
- Core long: PLTR + GOOGL — orchestration + cloud moat, complementary exposure
- Satellite: PATH — higher beta, pure-play enterprise agent deployment wave
- Short side: AAPL App Store revenue — medium-term structural, not a Q2 trade
- Entry: 2026 'anything-but-AI' selloff has left several names at a discount — improving r/r
--- KEY RISKS ---
- Enterprise AI security concerns slowing rollout (zero-trust for agents still nascent)
- Valuation stretch on PLTR/NVDA — sentiment can de-rate faster than fundamentals deteriorate
- AAPL short timing uncertain — App Store revenue defended near-term by developer lock-in
This note is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. | Laurent Chekroun