8 Questions Investors Need to Ask About SpaceX’s IPO
The Takeaway
- Starship delays, mobile bets, AI buildouts and more. These are the biggest questions looming over SpaceX as it gears up for a record-smashing IPO.
SpaceX is aiming to raise tens of billions of dollars as soon as this summer in what could be the largest initial public offering in history. While CEO Elon Musk has proven he’s uniquely skilled at convincing investors to buy into his grand visions at gigantic valuations, anyone considering buying into the SpaceX IPO may be right to ask whether its pitch is really out of this world.
SpaceX, which generated as much as $2 billion in free cash flow last year off $16 billion in revenue, is currently a juggernaut in the business of launching things into space. Out of all launches by any company or government so far this year, more than half have been carried out by SpaceX’s Falcon 9 rocket. But forecasting future demand for launch services can be difficult.
The growth of the launch business and of SpaceX’s Starlink satellite internet and mobile business—not to mention Musk’s visions of moon landings and orbital data centers—depends on the long-delayed Starship launch vehicle finally becoming viable. Starlink’s expansion also hinges on unknowns like launching in countries where regulators have opposed the service for years, as well as convincing consumers that services allowing you to text, call and even FaceTime in mobile dead zones are a must-have.
Here are eight of the most important questions anyone considering investing in a SpaceX IPO should ask.
What is SpaceX these days?
For most of SpaceX’s 24-year history, the company made money from launching things into space for governments and other space firms. In the past few years, SpaceX’s use of its own Starlink satellites to beam internet to subscribers became its biggest revenue driver. Now that it has merged with Musk’s xAI, at a combined valuation of $1.25 trillion, the future vision is something different still: a space, communications and AI behemoth that will power a computing revolution with data centers in space.
SpaceX, at least before acquiring xAI, was generating cash. But xAI, which SpaceX acquired in February at a valuation of $250 billion, burned $9.5 billion in the first nine months of last year on around $210 million in revenue. The combined company will require heavy spending in the near term both to keep expanding Starlink and to build out data centers on Earth for xAI.
Then there’s X, formerly known as Twitter, which merged with xAI last year. X has a subscription business that recently hit $1 billion in annual recurring revenue, an executive said at an xAI all-hands meeting last month. It also has an advertising business in the low single-digit billions.
But overall, for the foreseeable future, SpaceX is still first and foremost a satellite internet and rocket launching business, with an AI lab and a social media service attached.
How strong is SpaceX’s grip on the launch industry? And how big could that get?
Currently, SpaceX is a dominant force in launching rockets into space—out of 59 total rocket launches into orbit so far in 2026, 35 have been SpaceX’s Falcon 9. A significant portion of SpaceX’s launches put its own Starlink satellites into orbit, but the company also launches satellites on behalf of governments and other companies like Amazon.
Other significant but much smaller competitors in the launch business include Jeff Bezos’ Blue Origin and Rocket Lab in the U.S., as well as Chinese and European rivals. The total value of the worldwide launch business was between $10 billion and $20 billion in 2025, according to analysts.
And while SpaceX’s Falcon 9 rocket is currently a reliable workhorse for SpaceX, Musk forecasts the company’s cadence of launches increasing greatly in the coming years, primarily to power its own initiatives like data centers in space. All those plans depend on its next-generation launch vehicle, the Starship.
The Starship keeps getting delayed. Does that matter?
Yes. The company needs to get its Starship launch vehicle into service as soon as possible to ensure that virtually all of the plans SpaceX is pitching are technically and economically viable.
For instance, the new generation of Starlink Mobile satellites that SpaceX unveiled this month rely on Starship to launch. Musk has indicated that SpaceX’s orbital data centers would build on a newer version of the company’s regular Starlink satellites, which are also designed to deploy from Starship. Any long-term plans for space colonies on Mars or the moon also rely on Starship’s success.
In addition, large government contracts hinge on Starship. In an audit released earlier this month, NASA said SpaceX’s Starship lunar lander has suffered delays, still faces significant hurdles and may not be on track to fulfill a target of landing astronauts on the moon in 2028. And Blue Origin is designing a rival lunar lander for NASA.
But SpaceX’s schedule for Starship has been slipping for years—back in 2019, the company said that the craft would enter commercial service by 2021.
SpaceX has demonstrated that it can reuse Starship’s booster, known as the Super Heavy, which has successfully launched and landed in multiple tests over the past couple of years. But the company has yet to demonstrate reusability for the rocket’s upper stage, the section of the craft designed to carry cargo such as satellites and astronauts.
SpaceX has been working its way up to testing a landing of the upper stage, which Musk has said the company will only do when it’s very confident the rocket won’t break up. But SpaceX hasn’t conducted a new Starship test flight since October, and in November a new version of the rocket known as the version 3 failed in testing on a Texas launchpad, contributing to further delays.
This past January, Musk said the first test launch of version 3 would occur in early March, which has come and gone. On the sidelines of a conference in early March, SpaceX President and Chief Operating Officer Gwynne Shotwell said the next flight would occur in the next “four to six weeks.”
How important to SpaceX is continued growth in its Starlink broadband service?
Very important. Starlink, which beams internet from space to terminals owned by individual consumers and to planes and cargo ships, has grown to more than 10 million users since it launched in 2020. It was SpaceX’s biggest source of revenue last year. But Starlink’s hopes of continuing to expand face some obstacles.
One challenge is the fact that most people in the U.S. and Europe tend to live in or near major cities, where getting access to traditional internet isn’t an issue.
To make its service more appealing to a broader group of customers, as opposed to people in remote cabins or traveling in RVs, SpaceX has slashed prices in North America and Europe and ramped up sales efforts aimed at homeowners in suburban and exurban areas. That’s put it in more direct competition with traditional wired internet firms like Comcast, and the pricing pressure is likely to continue.
Meanwhile, India and significant parts of Africa offer a big potential market of people without access to internet infrastructure. But SpaceX has yet to secure approval to launch in those places even after years of negotiating with local regulators. Even if it does, it would likely have to charge significantly less for service than it can in wealthier parts of the world.
What’s more, big Starlink competitors, including Amazon’s Leo and two Chinese-owned constellations, are set to come online soon. And European governments are funding their own Starlink rivals to reduce their reliance on U.S. tech. But for the foreseeable future, SpaceX is likely to have a cost advantage because it can use its own rockets to launch satellites.
What about Starlink Mobile?
Starlink Mobile uses a separate kind of satellite to power text messaging, calling and limited data for mobile phones in remote areas. The next generation of satellites for Starlink Mobile will offer more advanced services in such areas, including video calls and streaming, according to SpaceX. Those satellites will use spectrum SpaceX is buying from EchoStar for $19.6 billion in cash and stock in deals set to close next year.
SpaceX offers Starlink Mobile through deals with telecom firms like T-Mobile. However, a major debate is playing out in the telecom industry over whether regular cellphone users are willing to pay for Starlink’s backup service, since the vast majority live and travel in areas served by traditional towers. While some telecoms that have partnered with Starlink, such as T-Mobile, offer the service only to customers on more premium plans or those that pay a monthly fee, others, like Ukraine’s Kyivstar, offer the service for free.
If telecoms find their customers don’t care enough about Starlink backup service to pay extra for it, it’s unlikely to become a big revenue driver for SpaceX.
Another question is whether Apple will ever do a deal with Starlink. Apple currently offers emergency texting services on iPhones through a partnership with Globalstar, a rival satellite firm, and balked at previous offers from SpaceX because Musk asked for too much money, The Information has reported. Starlink Mobile currently works on newer iPhones but is paid for by cell service providers rather than Apple.
At a telecom conference this month, industry executives expressed skepticism about demand for Starlink Mobile and questioned whether SpaceX is overpaying for the spectrum it’s buying from EchoStar. Some drew parallels to Iridium and Globalstar, both of which launched expensive satellite-powered cellphone services to great fanfare a quarter century ago, reached gigantic valuations during the dot-com bubble and then went bankrupt when demand failed to materialize. Iridium and Globalstar survived but are now valued at a mere $2.7 billion and $7.5 billion, respectively.
When SpaceX acquired xAI, the AI firm was valued at $250 billion. How is xAI worth that much?
Good question. XAI developed the Grok AI models and operates the Grok AI chatbot, which is competing with chatbots from OpenAI, Anthropic, Google and Meta Platforms.
XAI has been burning significant cash—around $9.5 billion in the first nine months of last year on $210 million in revenue—and recently bought a building to turn into a third gigantic data center that it will need to stock up with chips and power.
Its prospects of turning Grok into a major business are uncertain, however. Right now, most of its AI-related revenue comes from consumer subscriptions. Enterprise customers include the U.S. government and companies that have existing relationships with Musk, like Morgan Stanley and Palantir Technologies, and many of the businesses using Grok have been doing small tests that bring single-digit millions of revenue or less, The Information has reported.
Meanwhile, xAI has accumulated debt, through its own debt raise last summer and by taking on about $12.5 billion in debt from X dating to when Musk acquired the site in 2022. Bloomberg reported earlier this month that Morgan Stanley, which handled debt raises for both xAI and X, has told lenders the debt is set to be paid back in full, though the story didn’t specify where the capital would come from. That would lighten the combined company’s debt load, but it could come with some early repayment penalties for newer debt.
But xAI has also been funding its data center build-out with more creative arrangements. That includes using special purpose vehicles to be funded with up to $20 billion from outside investors, which will buy Nvidia chips that xAI will then rent over several years. So far, this arrangement has resulted in two SPVs with funding totaling less than $10 billion. An LLC linked to xAI also formed a joint venture with an energy firm to buy natural gas turbines for powering the data centers, with the venture taking out a $550 million term loan at an interest rate of more than 10%.
Is the stock market ready for SpaceX?
SpaceX has been pulling out all the stops to gin up demand for its shares.
The company is considering dividing up roles among a wide variety of investment banks, including having Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs sell shares to institutional investors, Bank of America and Citi focus on individual investors, and international banks like Barclays, Deutsche Bank and Royal Bank of Canada offer shares to investors in their own regions, The Information has reported.
Another big question is whether major money managers that offer trillions of dollars’ worth of popular passive funds tied to indexes like the Nasdaq 100 and S&P 500 will have to buy SpaceX shares soon after the IPO. The Nasdaq and S&P Dow Jones Indices are both reportedly considering amending their rules to fast-track large firms after they go public. That would almost certainly help SpaceX, as well as other potential mega-IPOs from companies like OpenAI and Anthropic.
But it could also spark pushback from investors wary of changing longstanding index rules. More broadly, continued escalation in the U.S.-Iran war could cause economic turmoil and lead IPO candidates across the board to rethink their plans.
How will SpaceX and Tesla coexist in public markets?
Musk often shifts trusted lieutenants between his companies to work on his highest-priority projects—for example, several of xAI’s key early staff joined from SpaceX and Tesla when the companies were separate, and employees from several of Musk’s companies worked on his Department of Government Efficiency last year.
More recently, Musk placed Tesla’s top AI executive, Ashok Elluswamy, in charge of an xAI effort known as Macrohard, which has been trying to develop “virtual employees” that can replace white-collar workers. Elluswamy is leading what Musk has described as a combined team that’s working on both xAI’s Macrohard and a virtual AI named after Tesla’s Optimus humanoid robot.
While such moves aren’t that unusual for Musk’s companies, SpaceX becoming a public company would almost certainly lead to increased scrutiny of such entanglements, as well as of how Musk himself is dividing his time between SpaceX and Tesla. Tesla also invested $2 billion in xAI shortly before SpaceX acquired it, so Tesla now has an equity stake in the combined company.
Another question is whether investors will evaluate SpaceX and Tesla on their own terms, or whether they will view both companies as a single entity under Musk’s control. Musk has even hinted that he could one day merge all of his companies, saying in November that they’re all “trending toward convergence.”