The U.S. Ammo Shortage Is Worse Than You Think
Congress and the Pentagon need to revitalize the U.S. defense industry base—and they need to act fast.
The conflict with Iran is an urgent reminder that the U.S. needs a defense industrial base that can wage a high-intensity war against American adversaries—especially China. The Trump administration has taken important steps to increase production of some munitions, reform an antiquated acquisition system, and establish incentives for private-sector innovation. It is critical now to accelerate these changes.
There have rightly been growing calls to increase stockpiles of long-range munitions for precision strikes, as well as munitions for Patriot, Thaad, and other air-defense systems. But the challenge is much bigger than Iran. The U.S. lacks enough munitions to support its war plans if a protracted conflict with China, Russia or North Korea arises.
Military planners should be particularly worried about China, which has vastly superior capabilities to Iran. The Chinese industrial base, which is on a wartime footing, has produced thousands of hypersonic, cruise and ballistic missiles capable of precision strikes, along with millions of drones. U.S. bases, aircraft, naval vessels and other infrastructure operating within the First Island Chain—which extends south from Japan through Taiwan, the northern Philippines and Borneo—are highly vulnerable to attack.
The Chinese threat makes it essential that the U.S. have enough long-range munitions and unmanned systems to strike ships, aircraft and land targets from a distance. The U.S. military also badly needs more air-defense systems and equipment to defend critical infrastructure. Empty bins won’t deter China.
The Trump administration has started to address some of these problems. The Pentagon has committed to rebuilding what it calls the “arsenal of freedom” and placing the defense industrial base on a wartime footing. Deputy Defense Secretary Steve Feinberg established a Munitions Acceleration Council in 2025 to increase production of 12 critical weapons, from Patriot interceptors to Long Range Anti-Ship Missiles. He has also spearheaded efforts to reform a woefully slow acquisition system, minimize stifling regulations, and take advantage of an innovative private sector.
But more needs to be done—and fast. The Pentagon should urgently focus on fully funding multiyear contracts for several critical munitions that Congress has already authorized, such as the Joint Air to Surface Standoff Munition, Standard Missile 6 and Patriot Advanced Capability 3. It should also fund research, development and production of cheaper alternatives. The Pentagon has sometimes reached strategic framework agreements—not contracts—with defense companies. But these aren’t binding obligations. The lack of firm commitments creates unnecessary risk for companies that have to report to their shareholders.
Multiyear contracts can help strengthen a fragile supply chain. Production is limited, and there are too few suppliers for solid rocket motors, castings, forgings and seekers for munitions. Longer-term commitments are essential for defense companies to fund their suppliers adequately and reliably.
Another priority should be maintaining aircraft and ship readiness. The U.S. has heavily used F-35 stealth fighters, B-2 bombers, C-17 transport aircraft, Arleigh Burke-class destroyers and other aircraft and ships against Iran. These are even more vital in other theaters, particularly the Indo-Pacific. The Pentagon and Congress need to work together to authorize and fund multiyear contracts to maintain aircraft and ship readiness.
In addition, Iran has conducted missile and drone strikes against U.S. bases and critical infrastructure—and other adversaries would do the same. U.S. bases and installations throughout the Indo-Pacific—such as in Japan, the Philippines and Guam—are in desperate need of hardened aircraft shelters, air defenses, reinforced munitions storage bunkers and fuel bladders. Congress should increase the Pentagon’s facilities sustainment, restoration and modernization funds to address these gaps.
A Pentagon supplemental request to Congress is the most immediate solution to secure funding, and the Defense Department is reportedly planning to ask for $200 billion. The administration shouldn’t pitch its request just as support for the Iran war, but rather as an investment to revitalize the lagging U.S. industrial base.
In the longer term, the administration should make good on President Trump’s pledge to increase the defense budget by $500 billion for fiscal 2027. The Pentagon should use the money to procure systems necessary to support Indo-Pacific Commander Adm. Samuel Paparo’s Hellscape concept, which uses a mix of drones, long-range missiles and other capabilities to target Chinese forces attacking Taiwan.
The Iran war is the latest wake-up call to revitalize the defense industrial base. It is time to move faster.
Mr. Jones is president of the Defense and Security Department at the Center for Strategic and International Studies and author of “The American Edge: The Military Tech Nexus and the Sources of Great Power Dominance.”