London’s cabbies prepare to battle the robotaxis
Some drivers are considering skulduggery in an attempt to show the limits of autonomous vehicles
Mohamed Mohamed qualified as one of London’s black cab drivers in 2014 — just as Uber’s expansion began to challenge their dominance in the capital.
“Ever since then we’ve been fighting,” he said.
The city’s world-famous black cab drivers have lost almost a third of their income to private-hire competition, but they have survived, not least, Mohamed argued, “because we’re more proficient and we can get people there quicker”.
Now, cabbies and private-hire drivers alike are bracing for a new wave of technological change: the arrival of robotaxis.
Waymo, owned by Alphabet, and Wayve, a UK start-up backed by Uber, are racing to make London their European launch pad for paid, driverless services.
The UK government has been supportive. “History tells us . . . that innovation just creates new opportunities,” the business secretary Jonathan Reynolds told the FT last month. “The way to keep good jobs is to embrace change.”
Roughly six months after Waymo’s vehicles began cruising the streets in testing mode, drivers view them with scorn, bravado and trepidation.
Some even admit they will be doing their best to lead their new competitors astray.
“You could imagine some gameplay . . . a bit of skulduggery,” said one.
They pointed to the potential to force autonomous vehicles (AVs) to give way in heavy traffic, sabotage their sensors, ensure that they became stranded in box junctions where they would be fined, or even to lodge insurance claims asserting “it drove into me!” after any collision.
Wayve said its testing fleet has not seen any evidence of misbehaviour or sabotage from cab drivers.
“We have built [Wayve’s automated] driver to be very humanlike,” said Alex Kendall, the company’s chief executive.
“By not driving like a rigid robot but driving in a natural and humanlike way, I hope it can coexist with other road users in a very seamless way.”
Some taxi drivers are unconvinced that the robotaxis will fit in. “I don’t know how they are going to work in London,” said Mohamed, citing the city’s narrow streets, reckless pedestrians and unwritten understandings on who has right of way.
Drivers can nudge through the rush-hour stream of commuters at a zebra crossing by a City station, he noted. “These AVs will not move . . . they will be stuck there till next Christmas!”
“They go very slowly!” said Suzanne Sullivan, who leads recruitment for the Licensed Taxi Drivers’ Association and contends that sitting the notoriously tough Knowledge test to qualify as a black cab driver could still be a better bet for young people than taking on student debt.
“Most of my customers in the summer months are tourists — all they want to do is chat to you about London,” she added, arguing that the appeal of a driverless service would be limited.
Even so, many taxi drivers are deeply apprehensive about their future — especially those who work mainly through Uber, which is already inviting its customers to join a “list of interest” to be matched with a Wayve robocab once the service is launched.
Kola Olalekan, a branch secretary at the GMB union, which represents thousands of private-hire drivers, said he is “baffled” by the decision to start in London, given the city’s geography.
Yet provided there are no early safety mishaps that deter customers, he argued that the venture would succeed because of the investment the companies have committed. It will eventually lead to a “massive” loss of jobs, he predicted.
Research by Carl Benedikt Frey, an associate professor at the Oxford Internet Institute, and co-authors showed that, when Uber had entered US cities, taxi drivers’ earnings fell about 10 per cent because of increased competition.
“Initially, I would expect something similar from robotaxis, and indeed more competition, fewer rides and pressure on earnings rather than mass unemployment has been the US experience so far,” Frey said.
“But as autonomous vehicles become cheaper, safer and more widely available, outright displacement of drivers looks highly likely.”
Jack Stilgoe, professor in science and technology studies at University College London, said it is uncertain how the labour market would be hit, but he expected robotaxis to cause less disruption than the arrival of private-hire companies such as Uber.
“The people selling robotaxis want us to believe that their technology will inevitably take over from human driving . . . The reality will be slower and more uneven,” he added.
“Where robotaxis have started to scale, we’ve seen lots of hidden labour — in maintaining, cleaning and remotely operating the vehicles. Companies don’t want to talk much about these jobs, as they spoil the illusion of automation.”
Uber said human drivers and AVs “are both expected to grow side by side for quite some time” but acknowledged “autonomous mobility will impact workers, riders and the communities they live in”.
A “hybrid” ride-hailing network that includes robotaxis and regular cars “ensures a smoother transition for drivers”, the company added.
In London, jobs have been advertised for private-hire drivers to support the rollout by patrolling the streets on electric bicycles, retrieving autonomous vehicles if they become stuck.
Since Uber’s arrival, the number of licensed taxis that can be hailed off the street has fallen, but this has been more than compensated for by a surge in private-hire vehicles, which must be booked in advance, for example by an app.
Official statistics show about 124,000 taxi drivers held licences in London in 2024, the vast majority working in private hire.
“Already we are feeling the pinch and drivers generally suspect cutting down of fares is being used to fund the project,” Olalekan said. “Earnings are dropping already — drivers are not going to commit to hiring new vehicles.”
Today Uber drivers often receive less than half the price of some rides, with the company keeping the majority.
Ali Haydor, a fellow GMB rep who drives for Uber in and around Brighton, has decided to keep his ageing vehicle rather than renew it and commit to a new five-year loan. He knows colleagues who are making the same decision or opting for more expensive rental agreements that leave them free to hand their car back with a month’s notice.
“Drivers can see which way it’s going,” Haydor said, adding that “the early impact will be more on private hire”. He said it was harder to make a living than when he started driving because nightlife has declined and dynamic pricing has been adopted.
Uber said: “The vast majority of total fares continue to go exactly where they belong: into drivers’ pockets . . . Recent [UK] VAT increases could make it appear that the driver is taking home less of the total fare, but that money is going to [HM Revenue & Customs] and not to Uber.”
It added: “Every driver in the UK is guaranteed to earn at least the national living wage.”
Waymo said it has “tremendous respect for London’s black cab industry and the expertise of its drivers” and called robotaxis “a complementary option”.
Wayve’s Kendall said his company and Uber are not planning a “big bang” launch.
“It is still such early days for our industry,” he said, with fewer than 10,000 automated vehicles on the road globally compared with 10mn Uber drivers. “It’s a drop in the ocean in terms of global transportation today.”
The GMB is pressing Uber to draw on the pool of existing drivers for the people who will be needed to clean and refuel AVs and to act as remote operators. But it is also advising its members to switch jobs rather than drifting into illegal, cash-in-hand work.
Several drivers are studying for the Knowledge, viewing black cabs as more secure, Olalekan said.
That is certainly the view of black cab drivers who spoke to the FT at the LTDA’s south London headquarters — reeling off the human attributes robotaxis would not be able to match.
Drivers retrieve lost property, carry bags for disabled passengers, clean up when passengers are sick and police their behaviour — for example, calling out customers who leave food wrappers behind them.
A YouGov poll found women were more opposed than men to the introduction of robotaxis.
Lloyd Baldwin, a veteran black cab driver, rejected the idea that lone women might feel safer with a driverless service.
In the back of a cab, “it all happens — punch-ups, love-ins, arguments,” he said. “When I was working at night, if I had a lone female, I would pull up outside her house, watch her to the front door and I wouldn’t leave till the door was closed. How does that work with an AV?”
