La Lzttre de l’expansion : Airbus wants to build a Starlink alternative with Rhe

Airbus wants to build a Starlink alternative with Rheinmetall
Business / Telecoms — 23 March 2026

The twist. Rheinmetall and satellite manufacturer OHB had initially planned to position themselves jointly against Airbus for Germany’s largest-ever space contract. 

The Bundeswehr’s procurement agency had asked all three companies to submit separate bids for the SATCOMBw project — a military alternative to Elon Musk’s Starlink network. 

Against all expectations, Airbus has since struck a deal with OHB and Rheinmetall to pursue the project together. 

The contract is estimated at between €8 and €10 billion, within a broader German budget of €35 billion earmarked for military space technology investments by the end of the decade. 

A consortium award could avoid procurement disputes 
— for instance if one company challenged an award to a rival
— but it could also be a direct negotiated contract rather than a traditional tender process, which might push the overall price higher.

Why it matters. The three companies consider cooperation essential to executing this ambitious project on an accelerated timeline. 

OHB and Airbus bring deep satellite expertise, while Rheinmetall supplies a large share of the Bundeswehr’s weapons systems — making it a critical asset for connecting tanks, fighter jets and warships to the satellite network.

The SATCOMBw Stage 4 system will rely on a constellation of many satellites in low Earth orbit, just a few hundred kilometres in altitude — very similar in architecture to SpaceX’s commercial Starlink network. 

The constellation could number more than 100 satellites and is specifically designed to cover the Bundeswehr’s priority operational zones, particularly NATO’s eastern flank.

The bottom line. The ultimate objective is to enable real-time digital communication and data sharing between tanks, fighter jets, drones, warships and individual soldiers on the ground.

>>> La Lettre de l’Expansion du 23 mars 2026.

La Lettre de l’Expansion du 23 mars 2026.

🇫🇷 RÉSUMÉ — La Lettre de l’Expansion | 23 mars 2026
ÉDITORIAL — Le sabre, la cuirasse et les drones (Yves de Kerdrel)
L’éditorial analyse comment le drone artisanal a bouleversé les équilibres militaires traditionnels. Ces “armes du pauvre” épuisent la Russie en Ukraine et traversent le dôme de fer d’Israël. Face aux États-Unis qui risquent de s’enliser dans un long conflit iranien, l’auteur note que 80 % des habitants de la planète se placent du côté de l’Iran.
FINANCES PUBLIQUES — 2,5 milliards de dividendes pour l’État
Les onze groupes cotés dont le Trésor est actionnaire verseront 2 526 millions d’euros au budget de l’État au titre de l’exercice 2025, en hausse de 23,8 %. La forte hausse est due à l’amélioration des dividendes de Thales, Airbus et Safran. En ajoutant la contribution de la Caisse des Dépôts, l’ensemble des dividendes touchés par le Trésor s’élèverait à plus de 5,5 milliards d’euros.
DÉFENSE/TÉLÉCOM — Airbus, OHB et Rheinmetall unis contre Starlink
Contre toute attente, Airbus a conclu un accord avec OHB et Rheinmetall pour répondre conjointement à l’appel d’offres SATCOMBw de la Bundeswehr, alternative militaire à Starlink. La valeur estimée du contrat se situe entre 8 et 10 milliards d’euros. Le système SATCOMBw Stage 4 s’appuiera sur un réseau de satellites en orbite terrestre basse, très similaire à Starlink, couvrant notamment le flanc oriental de l’OTAN.
DRONES — Les fils Trump investissent dans Powerus
Éric Trump et Donald Trump Jr. s’apprêtent à devenir actionnaires de Powerus, société qui commercialise des drones aériens et maritimes et s’est engagée à produire plus de 10 000 drones par mois. Éric Trump a par ailleurs déjà investi dans le fabricant israélien de drones Xtend.
MARCHÉS — Carmignac actionnaire activiste chez LG Chem
Carmignac Gestion a décidé de soutenir le fonds activiste britannique Palliser Capital dans sa campagne pour améliorer la gouvernance de LG Chem, conglomérat coréen affichant une décote de l’ordre de 75 % par rapport à sa valeur nette d’actif. C’est la première fois que Carmignac soutient ouvertement une campagne menée par un fonds activiste britannique.
CINÉMA — Nicolas Seydoux contraint à une OPR sur Gaumont
La Cour d’appel de Paris a rejeté le recours de Nicolas Seydoux et de sa holding Ciné Par contre la décision de l’AMF l’enjoignant de procéder au dépôt d’une offre publique de retrait sur Gaumont, dans un délai de six mois.
TRANSPORTS — Alstom prolonge son contrat en Suède
Alstom a obtenu une prolongation de son contrat de maintenance de la flotte Västtågen pour SJ en Suède, pour un montant légèrement inférieur à 200 millions d’euros. Le contrat de 11 ans débutera en décembre 2027.
AUTOMOBILE — Stellantis se refinance à taux élevés
Stellantis a réalisé une importante émission obligataire de 5,8 milliards de dollars pour consolider son bilan après des pertes considérables liées à la refonte de sa stratégie électrique. Le groupe se recentre désormais sur les hybrides et les moteurs essence, et dévoilera son plan stratégique révisé le 21 mai.
BANQUE D’AFFAIRES — Evercore recrute chez Rothschild
Alexis Masson, qui était gérant chez Rothschild & Co depuis un peu plus d’un an, vient d’être recruté comme managing director d’Evercore à Paris. Evercore affiche des ambitions parisiennes croissantes, avec notamment 100 millions d’euros de fonds propres reçus récemment.
ÉNERGIE — TotalEnergies reprend sa production en Libye
TotalEnergies vient de reprendre la production de pétrole sur le champ pétrolier libyen de Mabrouk, interrompue depuis 2015. Le groupe détient une participation de 37,5 % dans ce champ situé à environ 130 km au sud de Syrte.
NUMÉRIQUE — Capgemini envisage un centre de développement en Inde
Le CEO Aiman Ezzat a discuté avec les autorités de l’État indien de la création d’un nouveau centre de développement informatique susceptible de générer la création de 20 000 emplois.
GRANDE TENDANCE — “Bunkérisation” de l’économie
Un long article analyse le retour d’une logique de stocks et de réserves stratégiques face à la fragilité du modèle “just-in-time”. Le détroit d’Ormuz, par lequel transite environ 20 % du pétrole transporté par mer dans le monde, est redevenu l’un des points les plus sensibles de l’économie mondiale. Début mars 2026, le Brent a dépassé 100 dollars le baril.
HERMÈS — Rachats d’actions par la famille
Henri-Louis Bauer et Charles-Éric Bauer, arrière-petits-enfants d’Émile Hermès, ont profité du repli de l’action autour de 1 900 euros pour acquérir 2 631 titres pour un montant total de 5 millions d’euros via leur société Sabarots.

🇬🇧 SUMMARY — La Lettre de l’Expansion | March 23, 2026
EDITORIAL — The Sword, the Armour and the Drones
Yves de Kerdrel argues that cheap, mass-produced drones have upended traditional military balance. Iranian drones have penetrated Israel’s Iron Dome; similar weapons are exhausting Russia in Ukraine. The US risks a prolonged and costly conflict with Iran, facing a country that commands broad geopolitical sympathy.
PUBLIC FINANCES — €2.5bn in dividends for the French State
Eleven state-owned listed companies will pay a combined €2.53bn in dividends to the Treasury for fiscal 2025, up 23.8% year-on-year, driven by Thales, Airbus and Safran. Including the Caisse des Dépôts contribution, total state dividend receipts could exceed €5.5bn.
DEFENCE/TELECOM — Airbus, OHB and Rheinmetall join forces against Starlink
In a surprise move, the three companies have agreed to jointly bid for the Bundeswehr’s SATCOMBw contract — a military alternative to Starlink — valued at €8-10bn. The low-earth orbit satellite constellation would cover NATO’s eastern flank.
DRONES — Trump sons invest in Powerus
Eric Trump and Donald Trump Jr. are set to become shareholders in Powerus, a drone manufacturer committed to producing over 10,000 drones per month for the Pentagon. Eric Trump also holds a stake in Israeli drone maker Xtend.
MARKETS — Carmignac goes activist on LG Chem
In an unprecedented move, Carmignac Gestion has aligned with UK activist fund Palliser Capital against South Korean conglomerate LG Chem, which trades at an estimated 75% discount to NAV. The AGM vote is scheduled for March 31.
CINEMA — Nicolas Seydoux forced to bid for Gaumont
The Paris Court of Appeal rejected the appeal by Nicolas Seydoux and his holding company Ciné Par against the AMF ruling requiring a mandatory tender offer (OPR) for Gaumont within six months.
TRANSPORT — Alstom renews Swedish maintenance contract
Alstom has secured an 11-year extension to maintain the Västtågen fleet for Swedish operator SJ, worth just under €200m. The contract begins December 2027.
AUTOMOTIVE — Stellantis raises €5.8bn at high rates
Stellantis completed a major bond issuance to shore up its balance sheet following heavy losses from its EV strategy pivot. The company is refocusing on hybrids and combustion engines and will unveil a revised long-term plan on May 21.
INVESTMENT BANKING — Evercore poaches from Rothschild
Evercore continues its aggressive Paris build-out, recruiting Alexis Masson from Rothschild & Co as managing director, following earlier hires from Lazard and Credit Suisse. Evercore Europe recently received €100m in equity from its British parent.
ENERGY — TotalEnergies restarts Libyan oilfield
TotalEnergies has resumed production at the Mabrouk oilfield in Libya, halted since 2015. The field has a capacity of 25,000 barrels per day. This fits TotalEnergies’ target of 3% annual production growth through 2030.
MACRO TREND — The “Bunkerisation” of the Economy
A major feature examines the global shift from just-in-time supply chains to strategic stockpiling. The Strait of Hormuz is again at the centre of geopolitical tensions; Brent crude crossed $100/barrel in early March 2026. China holds ~96 days of crude import cover; Western economies are scrambling to rebuild strategic reserves.

LUXURY — Hermès family buys the dip
Two great-grandchildren of Émile Hermès purchased 2,631 Hermès shares at around €1,900 each via their holding Sabarots, for a total of €5m — a vote of confidence amid recent share price weakness.

>>> La Lettre

La Lettre — 23 mars 2026
Résumé en français
🗳️ Élections municipales de Paris : la loi PLM s’est retournée contre Rachida Dati
Emmanuel Grégoire a été élu maire de Paris le 22 mars 2026. La réforme électorale dite « loi PLM », promulguée en août 2025 à l’initiative de Rachida Dati avec le soutien de Macron et Bayrou, a paradoxalement affaibli la droite. En découplant le vote d’arrondissement du vote pour la mairie centrale, la réforme a permis à de nombreux électeurs de droite de reconduire leur maire d’arrondissement sans voter Dati à la mairie centrale. Résultat : avec 41,52 % des voix, Dati sous-performe en moyenne de 7 points par rapport aux maires d’arrondissement de droite sortants. La majorité de Grégoire atteint environ 102 conseillers, contre 87 sans réforme. La LFI de Sophia Chikirou bénéficie également du nouveau mode de scrutin.
⚽ PSG : Grégoire sous pression de Nasser al-Khelaïfi
Nouveau maire, Emmanuel Grégoire hérite du dossier brûlant du Parc des Princes. Le PSG, champion d’Europe en 2025, souhaite un stade de 80 000 places et un projet de type « PSG-land ». Qatar Sports Investments exige la pleine maîtrise du bâti et du foncier. Grégoire s’est engagé à négocier, mais les termes restent très éloignés — Anne Hidalgo avait refusé une offre à 38 M€, jugée dérisoire. Le club menace d’un départ en banlieue (Massy ou Poissy). L’atout du maire : la montée en puissance du Paris FC (famille Arnault) qui pourrait reprendre le Parc si le PSG partait.
🏛️ Pécresse renforce son socle malgré la défaite de Dati
Valérie Pécresse (LR) envoie 14 élus franciliens au Conseil de Paris, soit un tiers des élus de droite. Parmi eux, des fidèles comme Pierre Liscia (19e), Frédéric Péchenard (ex-DGPN), et les maires d’arrondissement Lecoq (6e), Bürkli (9e) et Redler (16e).
🛡️ Défense : la DGA muscle son dispositif bruxellois
La Direction générale de l’armement (DGA) renforce sa présence à Bruxelles. L’IGA Cyril Crozes rejoindra Thierry Belloeil à la représentation permanente française auprès de l’UE. Jean-François Ripoche pilotera le futur « plateau Europe » de la DGA, avec en ligne de mire le programme SAFE (150 Mds€) et le prochain cadre financier pluriannuel (2028-2034) — enjeux majeurs pour Thales, Safran, MBDA, Dassault, Airbus, Naval Group.
📰 Médias : La Provence réduit ses pertes
Le groupe CMA Média (La Provence, Corse-Matin) affiche 13 M€ de pertes en 2025, contre 15 M€ en 2024 et 25 M€ en 2023. Objectif 2026 : descendre sous 10 M€. La diffusion papier recule (51 000 exemplaires), mais le numérique et l’événementiel progressent.

Summary in English
🗳️ Paris Municipal Elections: The PLM Reform Backfires on Rachida Dati
Emmanuel Grégoire was elected Mayor of Paris on 22 March 2026. The electoral reform known as the “PLM law,” enacted in August 2025 at Rachida Dati’s instigation with backing from Macron and Bayrou, ultimately undermined the right. By decoupling the borough vote from the central city vote, the reform allowed right-leaning voters to re-elect their local arrondissement mayors without voting for Dati at city level. With 41.52% of the vote, Dati underperformed right-wing incumbent borough mayors by an average of 7 points. Grégoire’s majority reaches approximately 102 councillors — versus 87 under the old system. The far-left LFI (Sophia Chikirou’s list) also benefited from the new electoral rules.
⚽ PSG: Grégoire Faces Pressure from Nasser al-Khelaïfi
The new mayor inherits the thorny PSG stadium file. The club — European champion in 2025 — wants an 80,000-seat arena and a “PSG-land” entertainment complex. Qatar Sports Investments demands full ownership of both the stadium and the land. Grégoire has pledged to negotiate, but positions remain far apart (Hidalgo had dismissed a €38M offer as derisory). The club is keeping open the threat of relocating to the suburbs (Massy or Poissy). The mayor’s trump card: the rising Paris FC (Arnault family), which could step in if PSG were to leave.
🏛️ Pécresse Expands Her Foothold Despite Dati’s Defeat
Valérie Pécresse (LR) sends 14 Île-de-France regional councillors to the Paris City Council, representing one-third of the right-wing bloc. Key names include Pierre Liscia (19th arr.), Frédéric Péchenard (former DGPN head), and arrondissement mayors Lecoq (6th), Bürkli (9th), and Redler (16th).
🛡️ Defence: DGA Bolsters Its Brussels Presence
France’s defence procurement agency (DGA) is strengthening its EU representation. General Cyril Crozes will join Thierry Belloeil at France’s permanent representation to the EU, and Jean-François Ripoche will head the new “Europe platform.” The stakes are high: the SAFE programme (€150bn in joint procurement loans) and the next multi-annual financial framework (2028–2034) — directly relevant to Thales, Safran, MBDA, Dassault, Airbus, and Naval Group.
📰 Media: La Provence Narrows Its Losses
CMA Média (La Provence, Corse-Matin) posted €13M in losses in 2025, down from €15M in 2024 and €25M in 2023. The 2026 target is below €10M. Print circulation fell to 51,000 copies, though digital subscriptions and the events business are growing.​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​

>>> PUTIN | UKRAINE / IRAN LEVERAGE | 23 MAR 2026

PUTIN | UKRAINE / IRAN LEVERAGE | 23 MAR 2026
——————————————————

THE SETUP

Russia is quietly helping Iran — confirmed intelligence-sharing on US warship/aircraft positions (WaPo, CNN, multiple US officials). Putin denies it. Trump is aware of it.

That creates an unusual diplomatic geometry: Putin holds a card Trump needs in the Middle East, and Trump holds a card Putin needs in Ukraine. Neither has fully played it yet.

——————————————————
WHAT ACTUALLY HAPPENED

Putin offered to "help" with Iran during a phone call with Trump. Trump's response, publicly: "I said, 'No, I don't need help with Iran. I need help with you.'" (Fox News)

Translation: Trump turned the table — trying to convert Russia's Iran posture into leverage for a Ukraine deal. Whether that works is the entire question.

Separately, Politico reported Russia offered to end Iran intelligence-sharing if the US halted military support to Ukraine. That offer, if real, defines the trade structure clearly.

——————————————————
THE BULL CASE FOR A DEAL (Putin stops helping Iran → Ukraine progress)

- Putin has lost three allies in 18 months: Assad (Dec 2024), Maduro (Jan 2026), Khamenei (Mar 2026). His leverage basket is shrinking. Ukraine deal could be the face-saving exit he needs.
- Trump's Iran war is going better than expected. He doesn't need Putin's help — but he does want Ukraine off his plate before midterms.
- The trade is structurally clean: Russia stops intel-sharing with Iran, US reduces/freezes Ukraine military support. Both sides get something; neither admits defeat.
- Putin tapped his military intelligence chief Kostyukov for the Abu Dhabi Ukraine talks — not a dilettante. Signal of seriousness.
- Trump already told Zelensky to accept painful concessions (no NATO, territorial compromises). The groundwork for a deal is laid on the Ukrainian side.

——————————————————
THE BEAR CASE (leverage story is cleaner on paper than in reality)

- Russia's economy just got a lifeline from high oil prices driven by the Hormuz crisis. Rising energy revenues reduce Moscow's incentive to deal. Responsible Statecraft: "the Trump administration has lost any economic leverage it might have had."
- WaPo: Russians say the Iran strikes prove the US can't be trusted — "must achieve goals militarily." The Iran precedent poisons Ukraine diplomacy for Moscow.
- Putin is still making battlefield gains in Ukraine. Why trade something real (intelligence support to Iran) for a ceasefire that freezes him short of his objectives?
- Experts: "delay is helpful to Putin, who is set to benefit from further territorial gains." (Politico)
- The Witkoff channel has produced nothing concrete after a year and dozens of meetings. The structure of any deal on the hard issues (NATO, territory, security guarantees) remains unresolved.

——————————————————
THE HONEST READ

This is the most interesting diplomatic optionality in the conflict — but it is not a clean trade.

Putin is using Iran the same way the US used Ukraine against Russia: as a proxy to raise the cost of confrontation. The difference is Putin is doing it with intelligence, not weapons. That gives him deniability and reversibility — valuable properties in a negotiation.

The window for a deal probably exists. Putin has lost allies, Trump wants a win, and the Iran war creates urgency on both sides. But the terms will be brutal for Ukraine: territory, neutrality, frozen conflict. Whether that counts as "resolution" or "capitulation" depends on who you ask.

One thing is clear: Putin has more leverage today than he did four weeks ago. Not because he planned it — but because the Middle East chaos fell in his favour.

——————————————————
WHAT TO WATCH

1. Whether the Politico "stop Iran intel-sharing for Ukraine deal" report gets confirmed or denied
2. Trump-Putin summit timing (reported April/May target)
3. Oil prices — every $10/bbl helps Moscow, hurts the deal incentive
4. Ukrainian drone support to Gulf states (Zelensky's smart counter-offer to stay relevant to Trump)

——————————————————
DISCLAIMER: Personal note. Not a specialist. May be wrong. Not a recommendation.

>>> What to look at today - 23rd of March 2026

A selloff in stocks, gold and bonds deepened as the US and Iran hardened their rhetoric and signaled a potential escalation to their conflict, which is entering its fourth week. Asian shares fell for a third day and were set to enter a correction, while bonds sold off as the prolonged war threatened to stoke inflation, slow growth and push central banks to consider interest-rate hikes. Futures contracts indicated Asian losses would extend to Europe and the US. Gold slid for a ninth day to around $4,360 an ounce, underscoring the broad-based retreat across assets.
Rhetoric escalated during the weekend with President Donald Trump issuing a 48-hour ultimatum to Tehran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz — crucial for the flow of oil and gas from the Middle East — failing which the US will “obliterate” Iran’s power plants. The Islamic Republic responded that any such attack would prompt it to shut the waterway indefinitely and target US and Israeli energy infrastructure across the region. While the reaction in stocks was more pronounced, the response to the latest escalation in rhetoric was more muted in oil markets. Brent was volatile at the start of Monday’s session before edging up 0.6% to trade around $113 a barrel. Brent and WTI have both surged more than 70% this year. Global markets have been rattled by the conflict in the Middle East, with stocks and bonds selling off in tandem last week as concerns about inflation and slower economic growth intensified. That’s also weighing on policymakers, with Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell saying the central bank needs to see more progress on inflation before cutting rates again. The selloff in the US accelerated on Friday as traders started anticipating that the Fed may shift to hiking interest rates this year as oil prices threaten to deliver a fresh inflation shock. Markets are bracing for similar moves from central banks in Japan, Europe and the UK, even as the war also dampens the outlook for economic growth globally. The nervousness showed up in the MSCI Asia Pacific Index, which fell 3.3%. Japanese shares dropped 3.5% and South Korean equities plunged 5.7%. MSCI’s All Country World Index — the broadest measure of global equities — extended its losses this year to 3.8%. Asian shares have pared their yearly advance to less than 2%. Markets stayed volatile across assets. The South Korean won fell to the lowest level since 2009, while the Indian rupee hit a new record low. Gold tumbled 2.9%, posting its longest losing streak since October 2023 as sentiment stayed fragile at the start of the week. Bond markets have also been impacted amid concerns about inflation and higher interest rates. US yields are perched at their highest in months after a third straight week of bond losses. Short-term notes led last week’s rout. Two-year Treasury yields climbed four basis points to 3.94%, while those on the benchmark 10-year rose by three basis points to 4.41%. Elsewhere, silver fell for a fifth consecutive day. A Bloomberg gauge of the dollar edged up 0.1%.

Nikkei -3.35% Hang Seng -3.29% CSI -2.52% Shanghai -2.85% Shenzen -3.19%

Eur$ 1.1542 CNH 6.9165 CNY 6.9115 JPY 159.49 GBP 1.3313 CHF 0.7895 RUB 83.1892 TRY 44.3287 WTI$ 100.20 +2.20% Gold 4,3340 BTC 68,817 +0.64% ETH 2,069 +0.23%

S&P -0.75% Nasdaq -0.92% EuroStoxx -1.93% FTSE -1.33% Dax -2.10% SMI -1.60%

Macro :
- Risk Sentiment at Further Risk From Surge in Rate-Hike Bets
- Trump’s Iran War Drive Exposes Limits of ‘Yes Sir’ Cabinet
- JPMorgan Cuts S&P 500 Target to 7,200 on Rising Iran Tensions
- Mercuria Settles Dispute With Ex-Gas Trader Over Annual Bonus
- Hedge Fund Sees 31% Gain From Oil-Stock Bet Before Prices Surged
- German Conservatives Set for Election Win in Socialist Haven
- Qatar Airways Parks Long-Haul Jets in Storage in Spain: FT

Keep an eye on :
- AAPL US : Apple Acquisition Talks, Fraud Accusations: Behind One App Startup’s Nasty Split
- BAYN GY : Bayer Gets Approval for Low-Dose MRI Contrast Agent in Japan
- BRK/A US : Tokio Marine to Sell 287.4b Yen of Shares to Berkshire Hathaway (Insurance)
- BNP FP : BNP Paribas surges up UK M&A rankings - FT
- IAG LN : IAG Leans Toward Dropping TAP Pursuit Over Minority Sale Concern
- CBK GY : Commerzbank CEO Demands Clear Plan From UniCredit, SZ Says
- DIA IM : DiaSorin FY Adjusted Ebitda Meets Estimates, DiaSorin’s 2026 Outlook Implies Cuts to Consensus
- FLTR LN : Nevada Wins Temporary Ban on Sports Betting on Kalshi - WSJ
- FUBO US : FuboTV Approves 1-for-12 Reverse Stock Split
- GT US : Goodyear to Cut ~600 Positions, Add ~200 Across EMEA
- HBH GY : Hornbach Holding Prelim FY Adjusted Ebit EU264.7M
- KER FP : How Demna’s Casting Drove Gucci to the Top of Fashion Month Rankings - WWD
- Klovern IPO : Klovern Plans Stockholm IPO, Chairman Tells Dagens Industri
- MC FP : LVMH to Kering Defy Luxury Slowdown With More Stores in Europe
- META US : Mark Zuckerberg Is Building an AI Agent to Help Him Be CEO -- WSJ
- METN SW : Metall Zug FY Net Loss CHF16.7M Vs. Profit CHF52.8M Y/y
- BMPS IM : Paschi Said to Review Lovaglio Position at Monday Board Meeting
- NVDA US : The Silicon Valley Salesman Accused of Helping China Get Nvidia's Top Chips -- WSJ
- OMV AV : Russia Valued Wintershall, OMV Stakes in Gazprom JVs at RUB8.1b
- Open AI : OpenAI Plans to Almost Double Its Headcount This Year, FT Says
- ORA FP : Orange Names Frédéric Sanchez as Board Chairman
- ORY SM : Oryzon Genomics Granted US Patent for Leukemia Drug
- PLTR US : Pentagon to Adopt Palantir AI as Core Military System: Reuters
- PST IM : Poste Launches €10.8 Billion Offer to Delist Telecom Italia
- RHM GY : Rheinmetall Plans to Take Over F126 Frigate Project, Welt Says
- SAMPO FH : Sampo Gets Approval for Extended Group Partial Internal Model
- SIE GY : Siemens to Expand Alibaba Partnership, Launches New Products
- SOON SW : Sonova Sees FY Adj. Ebita Low End of +14% to +18%
- SPI LN : Spire Healthcare Confirms Talks With Bridgepoint, Triton Ended
- SNPS US : Elliott Is Said to Take Multibillion-Dollar Stake in Synopsys
- TIT IM : Poste Launches €10.8 Billion Offer to Delist Telecom Italia
- 8766 JP : Tokio Marine to Sell 287.4b Yen of Shares to Berkshire Hathaway
- UBSG SW : UBS Chief Ermotti Says War Isn’t Causing Major Shift for Clients
- UCG IM : Commerzbank CEO Demands Clear Plan From UniCredit, SZ Says
- UAL US : United Assumes Oil Goes to $175/Barrel, Won’t Drop Till 2027
- VINC GY : Patriot Supplier Vincorion’s Shares Rise After German IPO
- VOW GY : Volkswagen Nominates Poetsch for Another Term as Board Chairman
- VOW GY : VW’s Scout to Establish Itself as Separate Brand in US: FT
- VOW GY : VW CEO Blume Tells Bild Restructuring Will Continue
- VOW GY : VW CEO Vows More Restructuring, Sees Lessons in China: Bild
- WBD IM : Webuild, Cossi Costruzioni Get €117 Mondovi Contract
- X Energy IPO : Nuclear Energy Firm X-Energy Files for US IPO Despite War

>>> Europe : Brokers Upgrades & Downgrades - 23rd of March 2026

>>> Up
* Cemex ADRs Raised to Overweight at Morgan Stanley; PT $14
* Croda Raised to Buy at Goldman; PT 3,200 pence
* Cheniere Energy Raised to Overweight at Morgan Stanley; PT $313
* Fodelia Raised to Buy at Inderes; PT 5.50 euros
* Knorr-Bremse Raised to Buy at Bankhaus Metzler; PT 113 euros
* MongoDB Raised to Outperform at Mizuho Securities; PT $325
* Santander Raised to Overweight at Morgan Stanley; PT 12.10 euros
* Valvoline Raised to Buy at Stifel; PT $42

>>> Down
* Aeroporto Guglielmo Cut to Underperform at Mediobanca SpA
* Africa Energy Cut to Sell at SB1 Markets; PT 19 Canadian cents
* Beiersdorf Cut to Hold at Berenberg; PT 83 euros
* Brookfield Infrastructure Cut to Underweight at Morgan Stanley
* Cadeler Cut to Hold at Fearnley; PT 63 kroner
* DiaSorin Cut to Neutral at Mediobanca SpA; PT 78 euros
* DocMorris PT Cut to 4.45 Swiss francs at Berenberg
* Elopak Cut to Hold at ABG; PT 45 kroner
* Equinor Cut to Neutral at SB1 Markets; PT 310 kroner
* ERG Cut to Underperform at BofA
* Harbour Energy Cut to Sell at SB1 Markets; PT 250 pence
* ING Cut to Equal-Weight at Morgan Stanley; PT 28 euros
* National Grid Cut to Neutral at Goldman; PT 1,389 pence
* Sandoz Group Cut to Sector Perform at RBC; PT 65 Swiss francs
* SSE Cut to Neutral at Goldman; PT 2,812 pence
* Technogym Cut to Neutral at UBS; PT 18 euros
* Teleperformance Cut to Neutral at Citi; PT 50 euros
* Xpeng ADRs Cut to Neutral at Macquarie; PT $19
* Wizz Air Cut to Sell at Rothschild & Co Redburn; PT 650 pence

>>> Initiation
* Faraday Copper Rated New Outperform at National Bank; PT C$5.50
* Galderma Rated New Buy at Octavian; PT 180 Swiss francs
* Gigante Salmon Rated New Buy at Pareto Securities; PT 14 kroner
* Helvetia Baloise Holding Reinstated Overweight at JPMorgan
* SoftwareONE Rated New Buy at ABG

>>> Call
* Beiersdorf Cut to Hold at Berenberg On Stock Return, Focus Shift
* DocMorris PT Cut to Street-Low at Berenberg on E-Script Revenues
* European Auto Suppliers Brace for Losses as Pressures Mount
* Sandoz Shares Now Fairly Valued, Cut to Sector Perform at RBC

>>> IRAN WAR | DAY ~23 | 23 MAR 2026

IRAN WAR | DAY ~23 | 23 MAR 2026
DIEGO GARCIA + THE PROXY QUESTION
——————————————————

WHAT HAPPENED
Iran fired 2 ballistic missiles at Diego Garcia (US-UK base, Indian Ocean). Range: ~4,000 km. One failed mid-flight, one intercepted by US warship. No damage. But the shot changes everything.

Key fact: Iran publicly maintained a self-imposed 2,000 km range cap since 2017. FM Araghchi reaffirmed it on 8 Mar 2026. Diego Garcia is twice that distance. The lie is now documented.

——————————————————
THE PROXY QUESTION — IS IRAN REALLY ALONE?

Short answer: no. But how deep the support goes is the real question.

RUSSIA
- Multiple US officials (WaPo, CNN) confirm Moscow supplied real-time targeting data on US warship/aircraft positions
- Kanopus-V satellite (re-designated "Khayyam") gives Iran round-the-clock radar imagery it cannot generate alone
- Putin denied it to Trump directly. Denial ≠ reality
- Iran cannot track fast-moving US naval assets in the Indian Ocean from its own satellites. Diego Garcia required external coordinates — full stop

CHINA
- Transitioned Iranian military navigation from GPS to BeiDou-3 (encrypted, not jammable by US)
- YLC-8B anti-stealth radar (Chinese-supplied, UHF-band) designed specifically to reduce effectiveness of B-21/F-35 radar-absorbent coatings
- Reports (Reuters) of near-deal on 50 CM-302 supersonic anti-ship missiles — Mach 3, carrier-killer range — USS Abraham Lincoln and Gerald R. Ford within engagement envelope if confirmed

NORTH KOREA
- Less documented in this specific conflict
- Two-stage missile architecture Iran used rhymes with known North Korean development paths
- NK-Russia tech partnership confirmed growing (2026 US threat assessment)

WHAT IS CONFIRMED vs ALLEGED
Confirmed: Russian intelligence-sharing (multiple US officials)
Confirmed: BeiDou navigation integration (open source)
Alleged: CM-302 missile deal (Reuters, not yet signed)
Alleged: YLC-8B deployment (analysts, not officially confirmed)
Unconfirmed: North Korean direct contribution to this conflict

——————————————————
BOTH SIDES

FOR: support is deeper than admitted
- Diego Garcia shot required intel Iran cannot generate alone
- F-35 apparently shot down — implies anti-stealth radar capability not previously attributed to Iran
- Strike precision on Israeli cities/US Gulf assets exceeds domestic Iranian capability
- Carnegie Endowment confirms Russian targeting data

AGAINST: they are not all-in
- Carnegie Endowment: "In Iran's hour of greatest need, neither Russia nor China came to its aid in a forceful, kinetic, and undeniable way"
- China priority = surviving Trump trade war, not co-signing Iranian military adventure
- Russia is stretched in Ukraine. Intel-sharing is cheap. Hardware is not.
- 2026 US Annual Threat Assessment does not officially reference Russian intel-sharing with Iran

——————————————————
THE NUCLEAR CREDIBILITY PROBLEM

If Iran lied on a verifiable program (missiles), what does that imply for the nuclear one — harder to observe, higher incentive to conceal?

Bayesian logic says: distrust is now more rational than before.
Counter: missiles and nukes are separate programs. One lie does not prove the other. Intel failures cut both ways — the US missed the ICBM capability weeks before it was demonstrated.

——————————————————
WAS THE US/ISRAEL MOVE JUSTIFIED?

FOR: hidden missile range + external intel architecture + anti-stealth radar = threat growing faster than publicly known. Window was narrowing. Iran struck near Dimona. Mass civilian casualties in Israeli cities.

AGAINST: strikes have not degraded Iran decisively. Conflict is spreading (UAE, Jordan, Lebanon). Hormuz closure may be consequence of strikes, not something they prevented. No UN mandate.

——————————————————
WHAT TO WATCH

1. HORMUZ — Trump 48hr ultimatum to open or face strikes on power plants. If it passes: systemic energy event, not a spike.
2. CM-302 DEAL — If China signs, two US carriers inside Mach 3 anti-ship missile range. Naval calculus shifts.
3. RUSSIA INTEL PIPELINE — If confirmed officially, this becomes a NATO issue. Escalation logic harder to contain.
4. CRINK RESTRAINT — Russia/China helping Iran enough to sustain the fight, not enough to risk direct confrontation. That threshold is unknown. Biggest single variable for how this ends.

——————————————————
DISCLAIMER: Personal note. Not a specialist. Written in real time with incomplete information. May be wrong. Not a recommendation.

>>> Stoxx 600 Pr-Market Indications

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