FT : Swedish PM rules out government rescue of troubled Northvolt

Swedish PM rules out government rescue of troubled Northvolt
Battery start-up struggles to gain backing for latest fundraising amid Europe’s slowing take-up of electric vehicles

Sweden’s government has ruled out a financial rescue of Northvolt as the country’s green battery start-up fights for survival.

Ulf Kristersson, the centre-right prime minister, said on Monday that Sweden wanted to position itself as a leading country for the green transition with new companies such as Northvolt and H2 Green Steel supplying established groups such as Volvo Cars and Atlas Copco.

But he added: “There is no question of the Swedish state going in and becoming a shareholder. Right now, the ball is in the court of Northvolt’s shareholders.”

The Swedish battery group is Europe’s great hope of fighting back against the likes of CATL and BYD of China, Panasonic of Japan, and Tesla of the US in leading the battery sector.

Despite becoming the first company in Europe to produce a cell from a homegrown gigafactory in late 2021 at its factory in Skellefteå just below the Arctic Circle, Northvolt has grappled with scaling up its production.

The lossmaking group is desperately seeking to raise fresh capital as it focuses on its first gigafactory. It will cut jobs, close down part of the Skellefteå factory and examine delays for three other planned plants in Sweden, Germany and Canada.

But after raising more than $15bn since its launch in 2017 — the most of any privately owned start-up in Europe — Northvolt is struggling to gain backing for its latest fundraising amid concerns about the outlook for electric vehicles and intensifying worries about the company’s own financial position.

Carmakers including Northvolt’s biggest shareholder Volkswagen and Volvo Cars have sounded the alarm about the slow pace of electric car sales. BMW, one of Northvolt’s earliest backers, cancelled a $2bn contract with Northvolt earlier this year in frustration at delayed deliveries.

Northvolt executives have argued that the company had enjoyed relatively little government support from Sweden, unlike the generous backing from Germany and Canada, with much of it coming in the form of loan guarantees. “It’s not like we’re dependent on a vast amount of subsidies from Sweden,” said one.

The Swedish prime minister made his comments on Monday in response to a question about whether the government would help rescue Northvolt. Kristersson said: “We don’t involve ourselves in the business plans of individual companies but we do want to be a good place for this kind of industry.”

Northern Sweden has become a hub for the green transition thanks to the abundance of renewable electricity there, largely trapped due to poor transmission links to the south of the country. But critics have questioned the risky nature of Northvolt and other ventures there, requiring huge amounts of capital while demand has been shaky.

Peter Carlsson, Northvolt’s chief executive, has in turn cast his company’s plight as central to Europe’s manufacturing future and ability to take on China and the US in the green industry. A person close to the company said: “If Europe wants to avoid becoming a museum, it needs to stand up for industries and companies like this.”

Freyr, a battery maker headquartered in neighbouring Norway, has mothballed its plant there and is instead prioritising plans in the US, where it should receive generous subsidies courtesy of President Joe Biden’s Inflation Reduction Act.

>>> Hedge fund Citadel expands Global Fixed Income and Macro team

Hedge fund Citadel expands Global Fixed Income and Macro team

LONDON (Reuters) - Hedge fund Citadel said on Monday it has hired London-based portfolio managers for its Fixed Income and Macro business adding three new hires to start from November through next year.

The $63 billion hedge fund said it has hired Bernard Singer as a portfolio manager and Ravi Vinda, as an associate portfolio manager, both joining from hedge fund Brevan Howard. They will both start from mid-2025.

The investment manager also said in a statement it had hired Christine Boykiw as an associate portfolio manager who would take up her new role in November from UK bank, Barclays.

The hires are a part of a broader push behind the hedge fund's bond and economic trading program, said a person familiar with the matter.

Two of the hires, Vinda and Boykiw will be part of Sam Finkelstein's portfolio development programme.

Reuters reported in February that Finkelstein had been hired from Goldman Sachs Asset Management to lead a programme in its fixed income and macro business for developing portfolio managers.

Citadel, unlike some multi-strategy hedge funds, does not work in so-called "pods" which are not allowed to communicate, but rather in teams collaboratively.

"Attracting exceptional talent and investing in their professional success has been a key driver of Citadel's long-term performance and we look forward to welcoming Bernard, Ravi and Christine to our growing fixed-income and macro team," the Citadel statement said.

Multi-managers such as Citadel have continued to expand headcount this year. Over the last 12 months, these hedge funds added an estimated roughly 2,400 new hires an increase of almost 15%, a note from Goldman Sachs said earlier this month.

The new hires were not immediately available for comment when contacted by Reuters.

FT : Taiwan regulator blocks hostile bank takeover to clear way for rival deal

Taiwan regulator blocks hostile bank takeover to clear way for rival deal
Planned $17bn friendly tie-up between Shin Kong and Taishin would be country’s biggest financial sector merger

Taiwan’s financial regulator has blocked a hostile takeover of financial group Shin Kong, clearing the way for it to merge with rival Taishin Financial Holdings in a $16.6bn friendly deal.

The Financial Supervisory Commission’s move to block the hostile bid by Chinatrust, the country’s third-largest financial holding company, came after Taishin’s president warned that it could undermine the banking sector’s ability to support the globalisation of Taiwanese tech companies.

The FSC said on Monday that Chinatrust had failed to show how it would handle potential shareholder battles if its tender offer did not result in the acquisition of a controlling stake and that this raised concerns over the maintenance of order in the financial market.

The commission also said Chinatrust had not been able to demonstrate a thorough understanding of the financial situation of Shin Kong’s life insurance business.

In an earlier interview with the Financial Times, Taishin’s president Welch Lin had called on the regulator to block the Chinatrust bid, saying his group’s agreed merger with Shin Kong was the best way to enable Taiwan’s banks to help technology companies globalise.

“Our overbanking situation is terrible, terrible,” Lin said, pointing to Taiwan’s 37 banks, 21 life insurers and more than 50 securities brokerages in a market of just 23mn people.

“There are now already many Taiwanese companies like [chipmaker] TSMC who are global companies, but our financial institutions are not big enough to go global to support them,” he added.

“So the government should encourage mergers and acquisitions to create a few national champions. And if you want [that], the regulator should not encourage tender offers in replacement of friendly M&A.”

Taishin would acquire 100 per cent of Shin Kong through a share swap under a deal agreed by the two groups last month. A day after their boards approved the merger, Chinatrust offered 30 per cent more per share in a part-cash deal for between 10 and 51 per cent of Shin Kong shares.

To fend off the rival Chinatrust bid, Taishin last week raised its offer by 25 per cent. Driven by gains in Taishin shares since then, the value of the merged entity rose to NT$529.1bn ($16.6bn), Taiwan’s largest-ever financial sector M&A deal.

UBS is advising Taishin, Morgan Stanley is advising Chinatrust and Goldman Sachs is advising Shin Kong.

The battle was the first serious test of 2018 rules allowing hostile takeover bids in Taiwan’s financial sector. Under that law, the financial regulator still needs to vet such unsolicited offers. Chinatrust can only formally make its tender offer to Shin Kong shareholders after the regulator’s approval.

Lin’s comments on the Shin Kong battle highlight the challenge for Taiwan’s financial industry at a time when competition with China has prompted the US and its allies to “reshore” industry, prompting Taiwanese manufacturers to launch an unprecedented global investment and acquisition spree.

The bidding war for Shin Kong had also laid bare the fierce rivalries between the families that still dominate much of Taiwan’s corporate landscape.

Shin Kong and Taishin are controlled by different brothers from the Wu family, one of the country’s wealthiest clans. Chinatrust belongs to one branch of the Koo family, while two other Koo siblings control smaller China Development Financial Holdings and leasing company Chailease.

Taking over Shin Kong would have made Chinatrust Taiwan’s largest financial group. If Taishin’s bid is approved at extraordinary shareholders’ meetings on October 9, it will create a fourth top-tier group almost the size of Chinatrust — a result that Lin argues would be more beneficial for the industry and the corporate sector.

“We will be big enough to more aggressively go overseas,” he said.

Lin said that after a two-year integration period, a merged Taishin Shin Kong Financial Holding would look to set up banking branches in the US and western Europe, expanding beyond Asia for the first time.

The group’s view on China, on the other hand, is turning more conservative. “Taiwan’s overall exposure to China is steadily decreasing, and ours is too,” Lin said.

“China is in a situation of severe economic hardship, and will continue to struggle for at least several years,” he said. Taishin needed to consider those risks when looking at any new loan to Chinese companies, he added. “They may be OK today, but maybe they will no longer be OK three years from now.”

FT : Boeing cruising towards a mega equity raise

Boeing cruising towards a mega equity raise
The case against the company is that operational problems will persist despite its insistence better days are just around the corner

A company whose credit rating falls from investment grade to junk status is known as a “fallen angel”. Boeing’s descent into the high-yield netherworld is drawing ever closer. Stalled jet deliveries along with a recent work stoppage by thousands of machinists will send cash flow even deeper into the red.

Yet, despite its parade of operational and financial troubles, Boeing still boasts a backlog of 5,400 planes worth $437bn. And that should be enough for equity investors to bite on an increasingly anticipated share offering of perhaps $10bn.

Boeing management is trying to convince Wall Street that it is merely a matter of time until its cash machine is turned on again. The company’s flagship 737 narrow body programme — paralysed by regulatory investigations over safety — was just starting to ramp up again prior to the workers’ strike. Separate production problems with the 777 and 787 have arisen. Adding to the nightmare, Boeing’s aerospace defence business is also flailing at the moment (its problems include two astronauts trapped in space).


But the planes waiting to be assembled and delivered are spoken for. The question for now is to have enough cash on hand for working capital needs, until deliveries can be made and paid for. Boeing says it likes to have around $10bn in cash on hand. As of the last quarter, after a $10bn bond issuance, cash was up to $13bn, against $58bn of total debt.

Boeing says it will defend its investment grade status — ever more imperilled after Moody’s last week put it on watch for a downgrade. Analysts at CreditSights research firm calculate incremental $400mn of interest expense from certain Boeing bonds that reset their coupon on a downgrade. In the secondary market, many mutual funds that hold high grade debt would be forced to sell Boeing securities if they no longer were appropriately rated.

The implication is that Boeing will choose to sell equity as the way to shore up liquidity to avoid credit market chaos. That choice, however, would be a painful one. Shares are 65 per cent off their 2019 peak. A $10bn offering — what Boeing’s cash burn rate and balance sheet preferences suggest would be a credible size — would imply selling a little more than a tenth of the company, an absolute and relative size not often seen in capital markets.

The case against Boeing is that its multiple operational problems will persist despite the company’s insistence that better days are just around the corner. Still, the order book is full, suggesting a staying power that should prove tempting to bet on.

>>> US Gapping down

Gapping down
News:
  • ITOS -13.6% (Announces Clinically Meaningful Objective Response Rate Observed at Every Dose in Follow-up Interim Analysis of GALAXIES Lung-201 Study of Belrestotug + Dostarlimab in First-Line, PD-L1 High Non-Small Cell Lung Cancer Patients)
  • VZLA -11% (reports updates for its at-the-market equity program; announces $65 million bought deal financing)
  • GH -9.5% (after EXAS Colorectal Cancer Screening update)
  • UPST -4.4% (to propose private offering of $300,000,000 aggregate principal amount of Convertible Senior Notes due 2029)
  • TIL -4.2% (Instil Bio and ImmuneOnco announce global registrational strategy for PD-L1xVEGF bispecific antibody, SYN-2510/IMM2510, in non-small cell lung cancer and triple-negative breast cancer)
  • BFH -2.3% (Provides Performance Update for August)
  • IMTX -2.2% (Presents Clinical Proof-of-Concept Data from Ongoing Phase 1 Dose Escalation Trial with TCR Bispecific Molecule TCER IMA401 Targeting MAGEA4/8 at ESMO 2024 and Provides Development Update)
  • BDTX -1.5% (Presents Real-World Treatment Practices and Patient Outcomes in Newly Diagnosed NSCLC Patients with Non-Classical Mutations at the European Society for Medical Oncology (ESMO) Congress)
  • TPG -1.2% (files for 53,004,985 shares of Class A common stock offering)
  • AL -1.1% (confirms it was notified by The Boeing Company (BA) that certain union factory workers announced a labor strike )
  • APLD -1% (files for offering of 6,300,449 shares of common stock underlying the warrant issued to a single institutional investor)
  • MXCT -1% (signs strategic platform license with Kamau Therapeutics)
  • NUVB -1% (Positive Pooled Data from Nuvation Bio's TRUST-I and TRUST-II Studies Highlight Taletrectinib's Best-in-Class Potential for Patients with Advanced ROS1-positive NSCLC, Supporting Planned New Drug Application Submission in the Fourth Quarter of 2024)

>>> US Gapping up

Gapping up
In reaction to earnings/guidance
:
  • SDA +4.5%, MODV +1.6% (guidance)
Other news:
  • NCNA +190.1% (Presents Encouraging Data on NUC-7738 in Combination with Pembrolizumab in PD-1 Inhibitor Refractory and Resistant Melanoma Patients at the ESMO Congress 2024)
  • ZNTL +38% (confirms the FDA has lifted the partial clinical hold on studies of azenosertib)
  • NUVL +16.9% (Highlights Presentation of Clinical Data at ESMO 2024 for Parallel Lead Programs for ROS1 and ALK-positive NSCLC and Accelerated Development Timelines; commences public offering of $350.0 million of its shares of Class A common stock)
  • ASND +16.2% (topline data from the pivotal double-blind placebo-controlled ApproaCH Trial of TransCon CNP)
  • ADAG +13.8% (presents Results at ESMO Congress that Show Best-in-Class Therapeutic Potential for Anti-CTLA-4 SAFEbody ADG126)
  • EVAX +12% (positive one-year data from the ongoing phase 2 trial with its lead asset EVX-01, an AI-designed personalized cancer vaccine)
  • EXAS +9.8% (Presents Data Demonstrating Advancement in Blood-based Colorectal Cancer Screening at ESMO 2024)
  • PDSB +7.3% (Updated Results from VERSATILE-002 Phase 2 Clinical Trial Presented at ESMO 2024)
  • CGEM +7% (Presents Positive Updated Data from Module C of Zipalertinib Pivotal Phase 2b Study at ESMO 2024)
  • SSYS +6% (authorizes $50 million share repurchase program)
  • CACI +5% (will announce during a conference call this morning, Sept. 16, at 8:30 a.m. Eastern time, that it has entered into a definitive agreement to acquire a company)
  • STRO +4.7% (Announces Updated Data from Phase 1b Study of Luvelta in Combination with Bevacizumab at ESMO 2024)
  • ACRV +4.6% (Reports Positive Endometrial Cancer Data from Ongoing ACR-368 Registrational Intent Phase 2 Study at ESMO, Advancement of ACR-2316 into Clinic Ahead of Timelines, and Progress on its AP3 Interactome for Proprietary Data Analysis)
  • SMMT +2.9% (reports promising anti-tumor activity and safety of Ivonescimab in Combination Therapies in CRC, TNBC, and HNSCC Featured at ESMO 2024)
  • CKPT +2.2% (announces cosibelimab longer-term results in advanced cutaneous squamous cell carcinoma presented at ESMO Congress 2024)
  • MASI +1.9% (issues statement following Court's Order Holding Politan and Quentin Koffey in Contempt)
  • DJT +1.7% (indicated higher following second assassination attempt on former President Donald Trump on Sunday)
  • VSAT +1.6% (bought 55000 shares at $14.75-15.00 worth ~$820K)
  • VYGR +1.6% (announces that the joint steering committee with its collaborator Neurocrine Biosciences (NBIX) has selected a development candidate in a gene therapy program for the potential treatment of an undisclosed neurological disease)
  • AZN +1.5% (reports Imfinzi plus Imjudo demonstrated unprecedented overall survival in advanced liver cancer with one in five patients surviving five years in HIMALAYA Phase III trial; reports IMFINZI (durvalumab) perioperative regimen reduced the risk of recurrence by 32% and the risk of death by 25% vs. neoadjuvant chemotherapy alone in muscle-invasive bladder cancer in the NIAGARA Phase III trial)
  • AA +1.4% (agrees to sell its 25.1% stake in Ma'aden Joint Venture to Ma'aden)
  • NVS +1.1% (reports Kisqali shows deepening benefit in new analysis)
  • JAZZ +1.1% (Presents Updated Phase 2 Data for Zanidatamab Demonstrating Increased mPFS in HER2-Positive Metastatic Gastroesophageal Adenocarcinoma at ESMO 2024)
  • HOLX +1% (announces $1.5 bln share repurchase authorization)
  • NVCT +1% (Nuvectis Pharma with Summit Therapeutics threatening to dethrone Merck's Keytruda, Nuvectis' NXP900 is one to watch)

>>> US Research Calls I

Research Calls I
  • Upgrades:
    • Acrivon Therapeutics (ACRV) upgraded to Buy from Neutral at Ladenburg Thalmann; tgt $16
    • Ameren (AEE) upgraded to Outperform from Neutral at Mizuho; tgt raised to $89
    • BHP Group (BHP) upgraded to Outperform from Mkt Perform at Bernstein
    • BioNTech (BNTX) upgraded to Neutral from Underweight at JP Morgan; tgt raised to $125
    • Builders FirstSource (BLDR) upgraded to Buy from Hold at Truist; tgt raised to $220
    • Chart Industries (GTLS) upgraded to Overweight from Equal-Weight at Morgan Stanley; tgt $175
    • Community Healthcare Trust (CHCT) upgraded to In-line from Underperform at Evercore ISI; tgt lowered to $18
    • Compass Therapeutics (CMPX) upgraded to Buy from Neutral at Ladenburg Thalmann; tgt $5
    • Delek US Holdings (DK) upgraded to Neutral from Underperform at Mizuho; tgt lowered to $26
    • EastGroup (EGP) upgraded to Outperform from In-line at Evercore ISI; tgt raised to $204
    • Entegris (ENTG) upgraded to Buy from Neutral at Citigroup; tgt raised to $130
    • Kinder Morgan (KMI) upgraded to Equal-Weight from Underweight at Morgan Stanley; tgt $24
    • ONEOK (OKE) upgraded to Overweight from Equal-Weight at Morgan Stanley; tgt raised to $111
    • Oracle (ORCL) upgraded to Buy from Hold at Melius; tgt $210
    • Simon Properties (SPG) upgraded to Outperform from In-line at Evercore ISI; tgt raised to $172
    • SL Green Realty (SLG) upgraded to In-line from Underperform at Evercore ISI; tgt raised to $66
    • Sprouts Farmers Market (SFM) upgraded to Outperform from In-line at Evercore ISI; tgt raised to $120
    • Zillow (ZG) upgraded to Outperform from Neutral at Wedbush; tgt raised to $80
  • Downgrades:
    • Ally Financial (ALLY) downgraded to Neutral from Buy at BTIG Research
    • Colgate-Palmolive (CL) downgraded to Underweight from Equal Weight at Wells Fargo; tgt $100
    • EnLink Midstream (ENLC) downgraded to Equal-Weight from Overweight at Morgan Stanley; tgt $16
    • Kinsale Capital (KNSL) downgraded to Peer Perform from Outperform at Wolfe Research
    • MKS Instruments (MKSI) downgraded to Neutral from Buy at Citigroup; tgt lowered to $120
    • Nestle (NSRGY) downgraded to Underweight from Equal-Weight at Morgan Stanley
    • Nova Measuring (NVMI) downgraded to Neutral from Buy at Citigroup; tgt lowered to $224
    • Regency Centers (REG) downgraded to In-line from Outperform at Evercore ISI; tgt raised to $75
    • Southern (SO) downgraded to Neutral from Outperform at Mizuho; tgt $90
    • Sun Communities (SUI) downgraded to In-line from Outperform at Evercore ISI; tgt raised to $149
    • Synchrony Financial (SYF) downgraded to Neutral from Buy at BTIG Research
    • Western Midstream (WES) downgraded to Equal-Weight from Overweight at Morgan Stanley; tgt $42
    • World Kinect Corporation (WKC) downgraded to Underweight from Equal-Weight at Morgan Stanley; tgt $28
  • Others:
    • Arm Holdings plc (ARM) initiated with a Hold at The Benchmark Company
    • Biohaven (BHVN) initiated with a Buy at Jefferies; tgt $57
    • Diamondback Energy (FANG) resumed with a Hold at Jefferies; tgt $185
    • Eaton (ETN) initiated with a Buy at Citigroup; tgt $348
    • GE Vernova (GEV) initiated with an Overweight at Barclays; tgt $250
    • Oruka Therapeutics (ORKA) initiated with a Buy at TD Cowen
    • TriSalus Life Sciences (TLSI) initiated with an Outperform at Oppenheimer; tgt $10
    • Yelp (YELP) initiated with an Underperform at BofA Securities; tgt $30

FT : Electricity infrastructure is the next play for AI investors

Electricity infrastructure is the next play for AI investors
Power and battery providers offer another way to ride the AI wave

Electricity providers are ‘next derivative on AI’
As demand for artificial intelligence technologies continues to grow, a new class of companies are starting to emerge as a way to play the sector: electricity providers.

“Investors are looking for the next derivative on AI,” James West, a senior analyst at Evercore ISI on sustainable technologies energy, told me. “The technology investors that are calling us are asking about power.”

“This is the next big bull market, especially as you have some of the other AI derivatives like the chips running out of capacity,” he added. Nvidia, the stock market darling of the AI phenomenon, saw its shares sink after its latest earnings report in late August. “It is hard for Nvidia to grow earnings further because their capacity tightens,” West said.

If this shift occurs, West said the companies that are poised to do well include GE Vernova, the power and renewable energy divisions of General Electric that have been spun out into a separate company, or Fluence, a battery provider competing with Tesla.

With data centres’ energy demands accelerating, renewable energy development is happening at a rapid scale, he said. Renewable electricity generated worldwide in 2025 is expected to surpass coal power for the first time, according to the IEA.

But that might not be enough. There are two broad approaches to meeting AI’s rapidly growing power demands, experts reckon. One path is “re-carbonisation” — restarting or maintaining fossil fuel power plants. This path exposes the major risk that AI and data centres will ultimately drive up carbon emissions. Microsoft’s emissions jumped 30 per cent between 2020 and 2023, largely due to data centres for its AI development systems, the company said in its annual sustainability report this year.

AI data centres demand “99.99 per cent reliable electricity,” Thomas McAndrew, founder and chief executive of Enchanted Rock, a Texas-based microgrid provider, told me. This demand strains electricity grids further and requires increased reliance on existing coal as well as new natural gas plants, he added. The AI data centres’ demand is causing higher electricity costs for residential and higher carbon emissions, McAndrew said. “Speed to power is crucial in the AI arms race.”

An alternative to ‘re-carbonisation’
But there is a second path. If the technology companies can offset power gaps with natural gas microgrids and battery storage, then “AI data centres can ease grid pressure and provide surplus power back to the grid, supporting the expansion of wind and solar, thus reducing costs and carbon emissions,” McAndrew said.

While hardly a zero-carbon fuel, natural gas can be used more efficiently to reduce emissions and fuel data centres, KR Sridhar, founder and chief executive at Bloom Energy told me.

Bloom provides back-up energy sources for data centres, and has been one of the star portfolio companies for Kleiner Perkins, the blue-chip venture capital firm that backed tech giants such as Amazon and Google. San Jose-based Bloom can take the heat from natural gas energy and recycle that to power the cooling systems for data centres, Sridhar said.

If Nvidia and other leaders in the AI space are looking overvalued to some investors, there are other options to ride the AI wave. Electricity infrastructure companies may not be as flashy as Nvidia’s semiconductors, but they could become an AI investing theme for 2025.