>>> Stoxx 600 Pre-Market Indications

  • Worldline (WO6 TH) +2.1%
    • Stock down 27% over the past two trading days
  • Hermes (HMI TH) +1.8%
  • EssilorLuxottica (ESL TH) +1.4%
    • EssilorLuxottica: EssilorLuxottica and Meta Announce Long Term Partnership, Shaping the Future of the Smart Eyewear Category
  • Commerzbank (CBK TH) +1%
    • UniCredit May Seek ECB Nod For 30% Commerzbank Stake: Messaggero
  • Shell (R6C0 TH) +0.8%
    • Aker BP Cut at RBC, ‘Time for Reflection’ in Energy Sector
  • UniCredit (CRIN TH) +0.7%
  • Sartorius (SRT3 TH) -1.5%
    • Sartorius Cut to Hold at Stifel; PT 250 euros
  • Aker BP (ARC TH) -2.3%
    • Aker BP Cut at RBC, ‘Time for Reflection’ in Energy Sector

>>> TradeGate Pre-Market Indications

DAX:
  • Commerzbank (CBK TH) +0.9%
    • UniCredit May Seek ECB Nod For 30% Commerzbank Stake: Messaggero
  • Siemens Energy (ENR TH) +0.9%
MDAX:
  • TeamViewer (TMV TH) +0.9%
  • Thyssenkrupp (TKA TH) +0.9%
SDAX:
  • SUSS MicroTec (SMHN TH) +3%
    • SUSS MicroTec is a ‘Hidden Gem,’ Initiated Buy at Jefferies
  • Heidelberger Druck (HDD TH) +1.2%
  • Schaeffler (SHA TH) +1%
  • Ionos (IOS TH) -5.6%
    • IONOS Holder Warburg Pincus Offers About 7 Million Shares

>>> What to look at today - 17th of september 2024

Japanese stocks led a regional gauge lower as traders look ahead to decisions from the Federal Reserve and the Bank of Japan this week.  The MSCI AC Asia Pacific Index declined, with the Nikkei 225 off more than 2% even as benchmarks for Australia and Hong Kong rose. Futures for US stocks slipped after the S&P 500 rose 0.1% while the Nasdaq 100 slid 0.5%, as investors continue to rotate out of the tech megacaps that have powered the bull market.  The dollar held around its lowest level since January as traders boosted bets the Fed will deliver a half-point rate cut Wednesday. Markets have been predicting a cut of anywhere between 25 and 50 basis points as US economic data have started to weaken, though inflation has remained sticky. US retail sales out later Tuesday may offer clues on the upcoming Fed decision. In Hong Kong, Chinese appliance giant Midea Group Co. shares climbed as much as 9.5% in its stock market debut, after robust demand for the biggest public stock offering in three years revives hopes for the city’s languishing market. Concern continues about the strength of China’s economy. Disappointing economic data over the weekend is adding pressure on the authorities to ramp up fiscal and monetary stimulus if the nation is to reach this year’s growth target. The country faces yet another challenge in proposed tariffs by the US in areas such as medical products. Malaysian glove-maker shares including Top Glove Corp surged on Tuesday after the US was expected to finalize tariffs on Chinese goods this month.  Trading in China, Taiwan and South Korea was shut for public holidays. Meanwhile, the yen was steady after strengthening beyond 140 per dollar for the first time since July 2023 on Monday, as the Japanese currency extended its rally from the weakest point in nearly 38 years in July.  The yen has been steadily appreciating from market expectations that the interest rate differential between the US and Japan will narrow further leading to a decline in the export-heavy Japanese equities.  The Bank of Japan is expected to stay on hold on Friday after raising rates twice this year with all 53 economists surveyed by Bloomberg said Ueda’s board will leave the benchmark rate at 0.25% when its two-day meeting concludes Friday. Leveraged funds are diverging in their positions on the yen. Some short-term funds locked in profits ahead of the monetary-policy decisions this week, while others are looking to increase their long-yen positions on bets for a large rate cut by the Fed. In commodities, gold remained near record levels, with traders betting that it’ll benefit from a weaker US dollar and lower Treasury yields off the Fed decision. Other precious metals gained, with silver rising toward $31 an ounce, up for a seventh straight day and on pace for the longest stretch of daily gains since 2019.  INTC +8.7% jumping on several headlines, including co-investment with AWS (AMZN); STLD -0.1% inches lower on guidance.

Nikkei -1.62% Hang Seng +1.51% CSI Closed Shanghai Closed Shenzen Closed

Eur$ 1.1123 CNH 7.0972 CNY 7.0972 JPY 140.72 GBP 1.3201 CHF 0.8444 RUB 91.3750 TRY 34.0359 WTI$ 70.57 +0.68% Gold 2,578.93 -0.14% BTC 58,241 +0.99% ETH 2,286 +0.51%

S&P +0.00% Nasdaq 0.10% EuroStoxx +0.54% FTSE +0.58% Dax +0.49% SMI +0.48%

Macro :
- UK Oil and Gas Industry Reaches Emissions Goal Early, Lobby Says
- Goldman Trading Desk Says It’s Time to Buy the Dip in AI Stocks
- Rokos Macro Hedge Fund Slumped 5% in August Market Turmoil
- US, Japan Near Deal to Curb Chip Tech Exports to China: FT
- NYSE Executive Expects Large Number of Listings Coming in 2025
- EU Industrials' EPS Growth Can Offset Economic-Slowdown Threat
- Luxury Stocks May Decline Further, Lazard Freres Gestion Says

Keep an eye on :
- AC FP : Accor Valuation Discount Overlooks EPS Growth as Board on Watch
- ADP FP : ADP Aug. Passenger Traffic +6.4%
- AIR FP :
- AIXA GY : Aixtron Renews CEO Felix Grawert’s Contract by Further 5 Years
- ASML NA : ASML, Tokyo Electron Can Grow Sales on Intel, Amazon Deal: React
- BAVA DC : UK Orders More Mpox Shots in Case New Strain Enters Country
- BX US : Blackstone Real Estate’s Stein Retiring After Almost 30 Years
- BMW GY : Business Day.za: Disgruntled BMW SA workers embark on strike over ‘fraud investigation’
- BOX US : Box Is Said to Offer Up to 2% Coupon for $400M Convertibles
- BP/ LN : BP puts $2bn US onshore wind business up for sale - FT
- BP/ LN : BP Seeks to Focus on Core Business to Boost Investor Interest
- CLN SW : Clariant Sells Frankfurt Industrial Property for €95M in Cash
- CBK GY : UniCredit May Seek ECB Nod For 30% Commerzbank Stake: Messaggero
- CTPNV NA : CTP Offers 18 Million Shares: Terms
- DADA US : Dada Nexus Says JD.com Bought Walmart’s Stake in the Company
- SATS US : EchoStar Rallies as Dish-DirecTV Said to Be in Merger Talks
- EL FP : EssilorLuxottica Extends Existing Partnership With Meta
- FAST NA : *Fastned JV to Develop Electric Vehicle Ultra-Rapid Charging Hubs Across London
- GFR US : Waterous Buys $241 Million Stake in Oil-Sands Driller Greenfire
- HELN SW : Helvetia Decided to Redeem CHF 225M Hybrid Bond on Oct. 17
- IDEX NO : IDEX Biometrics Offers Shares at NOK0.15/Share
- INTC US : Intel Gets Up to $3b to Make Chips for US Department of Defense
- IG IM : Italgas' Growth Is Faster vs. Peers; M&A Clouds Leverage Profile
- IPS FP : Bpifrance’s Lac1 Fund Buys >5% Stake in Ipsos
- LDO IM : Leonardo to Invest £435m in UK in 2024, Starmer Says
- MC FP : Luxury Stocks May Decline Further, Lazard Freres Gestion Says
- MSTR US : Microstrategy Said to Offer Up to 0.625% Coupon for Convertibles
- NP3 SS : NP3 Fastigheter Offers 3.5m Shares, NP3 Fastigheter Offering of 4m Shares Prices at SEK250/Share
- RXL FP : Rexel’s Largest Holder Cevian Backs Firm in Spurning QXO Bid
- RUI FP : Rubis’ Photosol Targets Secured Portfolio Above 2.5 GWp by 2027
- SEBA SS : SEB Merges Wealth, Asset Management Units; Creates COO Function
- 3382 JP : Japan Finance Minister Plays Down Seven & I’s ‘Core’ Designation
- SMAR US : Vista, Blackstone Near ~$56/Shr Deal for Smartsheet: Reuters
- SMHN GY : SUSS MicroTec is a ‘Hidden Gem,’ Initiated Buy at Jefferies
- SY1 GY : Germany’s Symrise Plans Up To $20m Investment in Pakistan
- TIT IM : Davide Leone & Partners Gets 10% of Telecom Italia Saving Shares
- THG LN : THG Weighs Demerger of Technology Platform Ingenuity: Sky News
- UCG IM : UniCredit May Seek ECB Nod For 30% Commerzbank Stake: Messaggero
- VOW GY : Swedish PM rules out government rescue of troubled Northvolt, Battery start-up struggles to gain backing for latest fundraising amid Europe’s slowing take-up of electric vehicles - FT
- VOW GY : Volkswagen dropping in-house U.S. auto loans, giving business to Wells Fargo

>>> Europe : Brokers Upgrades & Downgrades - 17th of September 2024

>>> Up
* Auction Technology Group Raised to Overweight at JPMorgan
* Barry Callebaut Raised to Overweight at Barclays
* BioNTech ADRs Raised to Buy at Jefferies; PT $150
* Bridgepoint PT Raised to 400 pence from 320 pence at Jefferies
* Eni Raised to Buy at Intesa Sanpaolo; PT 17.50 euros
* Gannett Co Raised to Neutral at Citi; PT $5.10
* Iberdrola PT Raised to 15.50 euros at Morgan Stanley
* Julius Baer Raised to Outperform at KBW; PT 62 Swiss francs
* Lattice Semi Raised to Buy at Stifel; PT $55
* Lindt & Spruengli Raised to Overweight at Barclays
* Telia Raised to Outperform at BNPP Exane; PT 40 kronor

>>> Down
* Aker BP Cut to Underperform at RBC; PT 220 kroner
* Applied Materials PT Cut to $185 from $224 at Morgan Stanley
* Compass Group Cut to Sector Perform at RBC
* D'Ieteren Cut to Hold at Jefferies; PT 225 euros
* OHLA Cut to Hold at Intermoney Valores
* Sartorius Cut to Hold at Stifel; PT 250 euros
* Siegfried Cut to Hold at Stifel; PT 1,190 Swiss francs
* SolarEdge Cut to Underperform at Jefferies; PT $17
* Tele2 Cut to Hold at DNB Markets; PT 120 kronor
* TT Electronics Cut to Hold at Peel Hunt; PT 120 pence

>>> Initiation
* BP Rated New Hold at Intesa Sanpaolo; PT 451 pence
* Erste Rated New Buy at Trigon Dom Maklerski; PT 60 euros
* Fabege Rated New Buy at Arctic Securities; PT 125 kronor
* Shell Rated New Buy at Intesa Sanpaolo; PT 3,354 pence
* SUSS MicroTec Rated New Buy at Jefferies; PT 76 euros
* Trevi Finanziaria Industrial Rated New Buy at Alantra Equities
* WalkMe Reinstated Underweight at Barclays; PT $8

>>> Call
* Aker BP Cut at RBC, ‘Time for Reflection’ in Energy Sector
* Barry Callebaut, Lindt Both Raised to Overweight at Barclays
* Compass Downgraded at RBC, Aramark Now Preferred Catering Name
* Julius Baer Raised to Outperform at KBW on Catalysts (1)
* Luxury Stocks May Decline Further, Lazard Freres Gestion Says
* SUSS MicroTec is a ‘Hidden Gem,’ Initiated Buy at Jefferies

WWD : Ferrari Revs Up for Spring 2025 Milan Show

Ferrari Revs Up for Spring 2025 Milan Show
Creative director Rocco Iannone and chief brand officer Carla Liuni map out strategies, and discuss the unique appeal of the iconic brand as Formula 1 gets the glamour treatment.


MILAN — Despite the pouring rain outside the sprawling and modern Ferrari offices in Milan, it’s all sunshine inside.

In an exclusive interview a few days after Charles Leclerc’s win at the Italian Formula 1 Grand Prix on the Monza circuit for Scuderia Ferrari, chief brand officer Carla Liuni and creative director Rocco Iannone are all smiles. “This is a moment when we are starting to see positive signs and reap the fruits of the work done over the past two years,” Liuni said.

Reporting to chief executive officer Benedetto Vigna, Liuni joined Ferrari in September 2022 from Pandora, where she was chief marketing officer, and before that she was leading global marketing and communications at Bulgari. At Bulgari, Liuni oversaw the different business units, from jewelry to accessories, aiming at brand harmonization, consistency across all channels and communication planning. Similarly, at Ferrari she has been tasked with ensuring the cohesion of the brand and helping to further elevate it throughout its three segments: lifestyle, sports cars and racing.

“I am a brand builder at heart,” she said simply, crediting her experience of almost 20 years at Procter & Gamble, where she was global general manager of the Prestige division.

“The lifestyle pillar contributes to nourish and fuel the uniqueness of the brand,” said Liuni, adding that she approached Ferrari “with humility, which is fundamental with such an ambitious project.” With a chuckle, citing one of Vigna’s quotes, she added: “We have to keep the four wheels on the ground.”

That may be, but it is true that Ferrari owner John Elkann and the Agnelli family’s holding Exor N.V., which has stakes in Hermès International’s China project Shang Xia and Christian Louboutin, have not pulled back on investments in Ferrari’s luxury fashion line. Iannone, a Giorgio Armani and Dolce & Gabbana alum, was named creative director in 2019 and, after a first fashion show at Ferrari’s headquarters in Maranello in 2021, the brand has become a regular at Milan Fashion Week.

The spring 2025 show will be held on Saturday and, in his seventh collection for the brand, Iannone feels it will offer “a more intimate point of view.”

Researching and innovating fabrics has always been key to the designer, and the spring collection is expected to be no different, with plenty of tactile, even sensual materials, he said. Cue a bomber with a ’70s inspiration created in leather that has an effect similar to briarwood.

Keeping the history of the brand always in mind, Iannone reworked the tool box used in Maranello for a new trunk bag peppered with tiny rivets and metal fringe, employing leather that is given a second life.

From the start, Elkann said this would be a long-term project, and Iannone was appointed to create collections that would shift from Ferrari’s previous merchandising approach to ones that speak of design, fashion and lifestyle, reflecting the brand’s luxury positioning.

Since her arrival, Liuni has been building a team “to fuel this power brand, one of the most desirable in the world. So it’s a responsibility and an opportunity, but it is fundamental to avoid compromises because the execution must be up to the standards of Ferrari’s excellence. We are never content, always saying the next day will be better than today,” she said.

The synergy between Liuni and Iannone is palpable and she said it is key to have a creative director on board who “leads with consistency and expertise, as creativity must be disciplined, otherwise it’s chaos, as Rocco says.”

Believing in staying away from “silos thinking,” Liuni has built her team, including heads of commercial and marketing, product development, visual and architecture, and restructured the brand’s supply chain.

She contended that the development of a Ferrari luxury fashion brand “was a natural choice, reframing and extending the product pyramid, with a high quality assortment and made-to-order pieces down to gadgets, but all part of the same lifestyle, whatever the price point.”

There are now 14 Ferrari stores worldwide, and additional directly operated units are a focus, as is the expansion of the U.S. market. New stores in New York and Miami are in the pipeline over the next two years. By the end of 2024, the Rome store will be relocated from Via Tomacelli to the landmark Spanish Steps. In fact, Liuni said “it’s not the number of stores that makes the difference but the right location. There is no rush.” A London unit is in the pipeline.

Liuni underscored that “this is an inclusive brand with millions of fans up to the hyper-luxury clients. There is a very important sense of belonging and community, which is a competitive advantage. We want to increasingly be closer to them and anticipate their needs.”

Asked to comment on the reasons for launching a luxury fashion line, Iannone said, smiling, “Why not? It’s not a question of if but of how. This is the most natural thing we could do, and it’s only fair that there would be some skeptics. Novelty brings skepticism. This is a new and experimental project and it was clear from the beginning it would take time.”

He said the architecture of the assortment for men and women has been expanding, and the bags category after one year has seen a surge in sales. “After all, Ferrari has the authority, given the use of leather inside its luxury cars,” he pointed out.

Iannone also remarked on the increased interest in Formula 1. “It’s been glamorized and has become the next red carpet,” he said.

Liuni cited some key moments for the brand, ranging from the Casa Ferrari pop-ups at the Grand Prix race tracks or at Le Mans, to the presence at key automotive moments, including the Pebble Beach Concours d’Elegance and the Ferrari Cavalcade shows, dedicated capsule collections and galas, such as the one hosted for Ferrari owners at the Faena Hotel in Miami Beach in May to present two new car models and a new fashion collection, “with assortments integrated in the experiences.”

“These are all storytelling moments, which our clients adore, and they get to talk to Rocco, who transmits his passion for the brand,” Liuni said.

In Miami, the brand took over the hotel for the entirety of the Grand Prix weekend in May. She said that 30 one-of-a-kind, demi-couture garments costing up to 35,000 euros each were available and sold out. The brand’s “most discerning clients,” she said, had no hesitation about purchasing the new collectible Ferrari Endurance Book celebrating its racing history available at the eye-popping price tag of 18,000 euros. However, Iannone said that “our customers are fluid, they may just want a souvenir. Consistency is what is important.”

The news that Lewis Hamilton, who has won seven Formula 1 World Drivers’ Championship titles, would leave Mercedes-AMG Petronas to join Scuderia Ferrari in 2025 has contributed to bringing additional buzz to the brand and high expectations with the “tifosi,” or fans, around the world. Given Hamilton’s fashion credentials and his association with different brands, from Valentino to Tommy Hilfiger, Liuni said that he and Leclerc will “legitimately be our best ambassadors and nothing is precluded, but the collaboration must be natural.”

She said nothing was finalized at the moment regarding future fashion initiatives involving Hamilton.

On the occasion of the Italian Grand Prix, Ferrari presented a limited edition of nine Maranello Clutches realized in collaboration with Leclerc, inspired by the shape of the Daytona SP3 car, and retailing at 9,000 euros each that sold out in less than 24 hours. The brand also launched a new made-to-order service to personalize that accessory.

Thanks to the hype around the Italian Grand Prix over that three-day weekend, Ferrari’s Milan store attracted 15,000 people, with long lines starting an hour before opening time, said Iannone proudly.

“This role at Ferrari has taught me the value of time,” Iannone said. “Ferrari has the time and the courage to express itself in the right way, with exclusivity, craftsmanship, uniqueness and elevation always leading the way.”

WWD : Michael Kors Brings Jet-set Glamour to FTC vs. Tapestry Case

Michael Kors Brings Jet-set Glamour to FTC vs. Tapestry Case
The designer testified at a hearing that could determine the fate of Tapestry’s $8.5 billion deal to buy Capri Holdings.

A little jet-set glamour touched down in Manhattan federal court on Monday, where Michael Kors took the stand at a hearing that will likely determine who owns the brand he founded.

Tapestry Inc. agreed to buy Michael Kors’ parent company Capri Holdings in an $8.5 billion deal last year that the Federal Trade Commission has sued to block on antitrust grounds.

The government argues that bringing Tapestry’s Coach and Kate Spade brands together with Michael Kors would create a giant controlling 58 percent of the accessible luxury handbag market that would be able to raise prices on consumers, without boosting value.

Over six days, the hearing, which will likely determine the fate of the deal, has turned on economic analysis, input from handbag competitors and many executives, including Tapestry chief executive officer Joanne Crevoiserat and Capri CEO John Idol.

Kors, chief creative officer at the brand he founded in 1981, brought a little style to the proceedings as he went over his background and talked about his current work life.

Kors got his big break when Dawn Mello, then fashion director at Bergdorf Goodman, saw one of his designs and said her store would be a buyer if he ever made a line.

“I immediately went home and I started sketching the collection,” Kors said. “[Bergdorf] bought the product on first sight.”

It was a quick start for the 22-year-old, working out of his one bedroom apartment on 22nd Street and Seventh Avenue in New York with money borrowed from a family friend.

Kors largely stuck to apparel, but learned about handbags while he was creative director of Celine, and in 2000 introduced them into his own brand.

“I wanted to grow my business,” Kors said.

But the brand’s growth path was not a straight one.

“We overextended ourselves and we found ourselves with no choice but to file Chapter 11,” said Kors, who said he went on to “tighten my belt” and charge forward.

“It is a very cyclical business; you are going to have highs and lows,” Kors said, noting that fashion brands are subject to any number of factors, from the economy to consumer mood.

Kors, with the help of Idol as CEO, hit a long hot streak that saw the brand go public and pushed sales up to as high as $4.7 billion in 2016.

Lately, the Michael Kors business has been at something of a low, with sales down to $3.5 billion last year with the brand reinvention strategy stalled due to budgetary constraints.

Kors said he faces design competition all around.

“It can be Lululemon. It’s Zara, it’s Louis Vuitton, it’s Gucci. It’s direct-to-consumer brands that don’t have a fashion show,” Kors said.

The designer called Ralph Lauren an “American behemoth” that has sold handbags for some time but is getting more serious.

“He’s not dabbling anymore,” Kors said of Lauren. “Now, Ralph Lauren has got three different handbag collections plus what he’s producing for his outlets.”

Competition is front and center in the case, with the government arguing that the merger would hurt working and middle-class Americans who want to buy a handbag, but not break the bank.

The case has shined a spotlight on price and unearthed seemingly every internal email and text on the matter from both companies.

For instance, Kors, who has a habit of sending work messages from his husband’s email address, emailed colleagues asking for the suggested pricing of handbags from Tory Burch, Polo Ralph Lauren, Lauren Ralph Lauren, Kate Spade, Stuart Weitzman and Furla.

“This is the only way to get a clear strategy on our pricing,” said Kors, who never ended up actually getting the competitive pricing data. (The case has revealed that while Michael Kors handbags have a ticket price of near $450, the average out the door retail price was $92 last year.)

Kors also texted Cedric Wilmotte, the Michael Kors brand president, “Think we spend too much $ constantly chasing [an] outlet cut up kind of customer.”

He added the brand was “spending $ on golfer who looks old fashion and not modern sleek and definitely not jet set.”

In its case, the FTC has relied on a definition of the accessible luxury handbag market that includes only four styles: crossbody bags, satchels, shoulder bags and totes/shoppers.

Asked by Capri’s counsel if that made sense to him, Kors said, “No, there’s no logic to me. Backpacks and tote bags serve the same end use.”

When the FTC later asked about how Kors conducts his research, he said, “The street is my research. After 45 years, I have a good understanding of the consumer.”

Pressed if that was his sole basis for his understanding, Kors replied that he used his “eyes, ears and brains.”

The stakes are high for Kors, who said he expects to continue to be creative director at the brand if the deal closes and who also acknowledged that he and his husband, Lance LePere, have a combined equity stake worth $50 million in Capri.

Also appearing on the stand on Monday — but with less at stake — was Jeff Gennette, former CEO of Macy’s Inc., who was hired by Tapestry and Capri for $900 an hour to be there as an expert witness.

Gennette also said the handbag market was intensely competitive with mass merchants like Target, Amazon, off-pricers, social media players, pure-play handbag brands and resellers all going after the business.

It’s a market where Michael Kors has struggled, and the brand’s troubles have impacted Macy’s, Gennette said. “It was a bad spiral that the Macy’s brand was living through,” he said.

Michael Kors, according to Gennette, lost “its brand heat.”

When asked about the government’s argument that Tapestry could simply raise prices once it bought Capri and Michael Kors, Gennette said, “Where’s the consumer in that equation?”

He also said that Michael Kors has already tried to boost price without adding value to its offering.

“When they raised prices, they got spanked by the consumer,” Gennette said.

WSJ : U.S. Officials Jet to Beijing Amid Flood of Cheap Chinese Exports

U.S. Officials Jet to Beijing Amid Flood of Cheap Chinese Exports
In talks, Washington intends to highlight concerns over China’s manufacturing overcapacity

A group of senior U.S. officials is traveling to Beijing this week for a round of high-level meetings intended to underscore Washington’s concerns over a wave of Chinese goods flooding world markets.

The American officials, led by Jay Shambaugh, the Treasury Department’s undersecretary for international affairs, will hold discussions with their Chinese counterparts on Thursday and Friday, according to a Treasury official.

The planned meetings are the fifth gathering of an economic working group formed by both governments last year to enhance communication at a time of heightened competition between the world’s two largest economies. The group also includes Federal Reserve officials.

“It’s important that we have a resilient channel to discuss a range of economic topics with our [China] counterparts, in areas where we agree and especially in areas where we disagree,” Shambaugh said in a statement to The Wall Street Journal.

“During our trip,” he said, “we will further our discussions on China’s macroeconomic imbalances and industrial policies that risk causing significant harm to workers and firms in the U.S. and around the world.”

With the new round of conversations, the U.S. group led by Shambaugh, an economist by training, will seek to build on the warnings expressed by Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen during her April visit to China that the output by China’s enormous manufacturing machine has gotten too large for the world to absorb.

At a time of weak demand at home, Beijing has ramped up its manufacturing capacity, and sent excess capacity overseas. The policy choice reflects Chinese leader Xi Jinping’s emphasis on building up an all-encompassing industrial supply chain that can reduce China’s reliance on foreign products but increase the rest of the world’s dependence on China.

So far, such a policy has had an effect of squeezing industries around the world, raising the specter of a new global trade war. Many of China’s trading partners, from the U.S., Europe to even some in Asia that are considered relatively friendly to Beijing, are raising tariffs and other trade barriers aimed at fending off cheap Chinese goods.

The fear shared by Washington, Brussels and other capitals is that a wave of Chinese exports, often made with the help of state subsidies, could overwhelm their own industries, leading to job losses and business closures in a repeat of the so-called China shock, when Chinese exports such as steel disrupted global markets at the start of the 21st century.

This time, the stakes are higher for many in the developed world, as China is aiming its policy directly at the heart of the industries the West wants to foster itself, such as electric vehicles and renewable energy.

Meanwhile, Beijing has dismissed warnings about overproduction as a pretext by the U.S.-led West to suppress China’s rise. Beijing is also moving forward with its own challenge to U.S. industrial practices at the World Trade Organization.

The external criticism aside, Beijing also faces pressure from within. Unneeded factories have sapped corporate profits, wasted money and weakened productivity growth. Many economists in China have urged the government to shift its support from manufacturing to households to bolster domestic consumption.

However, the leadership so far has shown little willingness to change the policy. Instead, as the strain in U.S.-China relations continues, the Xi leadership has accelerated an industrial drive centered on EVs, semiconductors and artificial intelligence, and renewable energy—sectors seen as key for China’s efforts to outcompete the U.S.

In a July speech at the Council on Foreign Relations, Shambaugh said the U.S. is concerned about Beijing’s “clear preference today to push manufacturing even further as China’s growth driver,” with the significant spillover to American firms and workers.

In the statement to the Journal, Shambaugh said the U.S. delegation will also talk about areas of cooperation with the Chinese side in the working-group meeting, such as the debt and financing challenges faced by many developing countries.

China has spent a trillion dollars to expand its influence across Asia, Africa and Latin America through its Belt and Road infrastructure program. Now, as many of those countries struggle to repay their debt to China, Beijing has become central to multilateral negotiations aimed at providing debt relief to countries such as Zambia.