The Industry : Why OpenAI is Hiding its Reasoning Model’s ‘Thoughts’

Why OpenAI is Hiding its Reasoning Model’s ‘Thoughts’

In the artificial intelligence race, competition is fierce. Every big AI developer is watching rivals like a hawk and trying to reverse-engineer or copy their best work, as we’ve reported.

What can a leader like OpenAI do to keep its edge? The company’s newly released reasoning model, o1-preview, aka Strawberry, shows one way: by hiding the ball on how the model actually solves problems.

The blog post announcing o1-preview last week said the model uses an “internal chain of thought” to break down problems into simpler steps before solving them. As we have previously shown, developers have used “chain-of-thought prompting” to get existing large language models, including OpenAI’s GPT-4, to perform better on complex or multistep queries.

The new reasoning model does this on its own, but without showing its work to the customer. Instead, the o1 model shows a “model-generated summary of the chain of thought,” which implies that its thoughts are rewritten by a different model altogether before the customer sees them.

OpenAI said it decided to keep the raw chain of thought hidden primarily because that would allow its employees—and only its employees—to “read the mind” of the model to understand how it operates. OpenAI said it doesn’t want the model’s unfiltered thinking to be shown because it might contain unsafe thoughts and that the company wants to “monitor” the model to make sure it’s not being treacherous, such as by “manipulating” the customer.

But OpenAI didn’t hide the fact that another factor in its decision was a “competitive advantage.” That’s understandable.

The move implies that o1-preview could perform even better if its chain of thought wasn’t filtered, as customers might be able to get more out of it by refining their questions in response to what the model was thinking.

We’re curious whether OpenAI will find ways to limit the purported performance dip from hiding the chain of thought before it launches a fuller version of the model, o1.

Some developers have said they are annoyed by the hidden chain of thought because they could get billed for something they can’t see. OpenAI charges developers based on how many tokens—words or parts of words—its models process and spit out in the form of answers.

Still, reviews of o1-preview continue to be largely positive among developers who post about it on X.

The good reception to o1-preview ups the ante for rivals such as Google. The search company has already had a tough time winning over customers for its Gemini LLMs because of how alarmingly difficult Google makes it to use them, as my colleague Erin reported on Monday.

Thanks to OpenAI, the mountain Google must climb to attract business customers just got taller.

WSJ : Nucor Warns of Big 3Q Profit Decline As Steel Prices Fall

Nucor Warns of Big 3Q Profit Decline As Steel Prices Fall
Steelmaker cited an impairment and lower earnings from the steel-mills segment as selling prices have fallen

Nucor decrease; red down pointing triangle warned of a big year-over-year earnings decline in the current quarter after steel prices fell and the company incurred a hefty impairment charge.

The Charlotte, N.C., steelmaker Tuesday said it expected to post a profit of 87 cents to 97 cents a share for its third quarter ending Sept. 28, down from $4.57 a share in the same quarter last year.

Stripping out $123 million in one-time noncash charges, adjusted earnings are projected to hit $1.30 to $1.40 a share. Analysts polled by FactSet had been forecasting $1.81 a share.

The excluded charges are tied to the impairment of certain noncurrent assets in Nucor’s raw-materials and steel-products units.

Beyond the impairment, earnings are set to decline because of lower earnings from the steel-mills segment as selling prices have fallen. The steel-products unit is expected to record lower prices and volumes, the company said.

Nucor warned in July that its third-quarter profit was expected to drop sequentially due to lower steel prices.

Shares fell 1.7% to $140.50 in premarket trading.

FT : With new CEO onboard, Burberry takes a more muted tack

With new CEO onboard, Burberry takes a more muted tack
Designer Daniel Lee presented a pared-back collection for spring/summer 2025

There was an air of suspense ahead of Burberry’s London show. The kind you might expect when there’s new leadership in place. The fresh arrival here is not a designer — spring/summer 2025 marks Daniel Lee’s fourth fashion show as chief creative officer — but a chief executive, as of July, in the form of Joshua Schulman, a former Coach and Jimmy Choo boss.

Questions abound — in particular, what impact Schulman would have in this short period (his appointment signalled Burberry’s repositioning as a more affordable brand, although chair Gerry Murphy has been effusive about the American executive’s luxury pedigree). And also, which renowned British models the brand would coax out this time, following the last show where Lily Donaldson and Lily Cole made a runway comeback.

There were no surprising faces on the catwalk (held this time at the National Theatre, rather than the usual outdoors tent) but clearer indicators of where Schulman, who was in attendance, and Lee might be looking to take Burberry next. The largely beige, black and grey-coloured looks felt like a more casual and muted take for the designer who made a big statement in his first season with mallard prints and bright checks.

Backstage, Lee shared his desire “to explore the use of colour in a different way” and using more tranquil colours to “bring a sense of lightness to Burberry, which isn’t typically a very summertime brand.” That also translated to cargo trousers paired with sparkly vests, and rugged field jackets teamed with flowy maxi skirts and metallic dresses, marking a new kind of high-low styling for the brand. 

They align with Lee’s vision of creating “things that don’t feel too precious, that you can wear day to night, which I think is what Burberry is essentially about.” Although one wonders what the pricing for these pieces may be, given Murphy’s rejection of a potential move downmarket, despite the fact that the brand’s recent price hike has alienated aspirational customers.

Some things remained unchanged, like Lee’s love for electronic music (the opening track was “Lambent Rag”, a track by British electronic musician Clark), but a slight vibe shift of guests was discernible: footballers, including Marc Guéhi and Declan Rice, sat front row, alongside regular attendees such as brand ambassadors and actors Barry Keoghan and Bright Vachirawit. They sat facing a green sheet of hanging tarpaulin with rectangular and circular cutouts, an original installation by English artist Gary Hume, which Lee felt shared similarities with the shower-resistant gabardine of Burberry’s coats.

Burberry’s signature check appeared frequently, across bags, shirts and trousers, although they weren’t as vividly coloured as seasons past. “What we’ve endeavoured to do is to explore the check and move it into new colours, new textures, and really treat it as the most precious element of the house, in a way that the trenchcoat is,” Lee said — a staple item that the brand seems to be doubling down on. “A coat is something that I feel people invest in,” he noted.

Investors will surely be monitoring any signs of recovery: earlier this month Burberry dropped out of the UK’s FTSE 100 index due to weak sales and a shrinking share price. For now, Lee is buoyant. “What I’ve felt with Josh’s arrival is a sense of American optimism. I really enjoy his drive, positivity and way of communication. I think Burberry in its heyday really enjoyed American CEO leadership together with a British designer,” he added, referencing former designer and CEO duo Christopher Bailey and Angela Ahrendts’ successful tenure in the 2000s. “Hopefully that’s a great synergy we can get back onboard.”

>>> US Gapping down

Gapping down
In reaction to earnings/guidance
:
  • FERG -1.6%, RRX -0.7% (guidance)
Other news:
  • NUVL -2.8% (prices offering of 5.0 mln shares of common stock at $100.00 per share)
  • MMSI -2% (signs definitive agreement to purchase Cook Medical's lead management portfolio for total cash consideration of approximately $210 mln; Also slightly lowers FY24 EPS guidance, and slightly raises revenue guidance)
  • HR -1.2% (CFO to step down; names new COO; reaffirms Q3 and FY24 guidance)
  • BOX -1.1% (files $400 mln convertible notes offering)
  • UDMY -0.9% (eliminating 280 employees)

>>> US Gapping up

Gapping up
In reaction to earnings/guidance
:
  • CMP +4.7%, HITI +2.3%
Other news:
  • BBIO +64.2% (FDA has granted Breakthrough Therapy Designation to oral infigratinib under development for children with achondroplasia)
  • DADA +8.5% (Walmart discloses selling stake in DADA; confirmed it is aware that JD.com (JD) purchased a total of 87,481,280 ordinary shares and 1,875,000 ADSs of the Company from Global Pinnacle, a company owned by Walmart (WMT))
  • ACIU +7.6% (Receives Second Milestone Payment Following Progress in Phase 2b ReTain Trial of ACI-35.030 in Preclinical Alzheimer's Disease)
  • INTC +6.6% (co-investment with AWS (AMZN); turning foundry business into subsidiary, according to CNBC; postponing new factories in Germany and Poland, according to Bloomberg; CEO sends letter to employees)
  • HPE +3.6% (The CMA investigated and cleared the anticipated acquisition by Hewlett Packard Enterprise Company (HPE) of Juniper Networks)
  • VIGL +3.4% (FDA has removed the partial clinical hold on its ongoing Phase 1 clinical trial of VG-3927)
  • MSTR +2.3% (to offer $700 mln convertible senior notes)
  • TPG +2.3% (TPG Inc., Stadium Capital Partners and Dream Unlimited Corp.,to Acquire Dutch Residential Real Estate Portfolio)
  • SGML +2% (on track to deliver Q3 production target)
  • PSNY +1.7% (reports it is fully compliant with Nasdaq Listing Rules)
  • MSFT +1.6% (raises dividend and apporves new share repurchase program)
  • PLTR +1.6% (announced a new multi-year, multi-million-dollar contract for Palantir's Artificial Intelligence Platform)
  • MGNX +1.5% (released Post-ESMO Conference Call Presentation - presented a review of the TAMARACK Phase 2 data and also provided a general corporate update)
  • ARAY +1.4% (to delay 10-K filing; also disclosed amended credit agreement - reducing the available revolving commitments)
  • JD +1.4% (Dada confirmed it is aware that JD.com (JD) purchased a total of 87,481,280 ordinary shares and 1,875,000 ADSs of the Company from Global Pinnacle, a company owned by Walmart)

>>>US Research Calls I

Research Calls I
  • Upgrades:
    • Alerus Financial (ALRS) upgraded to Outperform from Mkt Perform at Raymond James; tgt $24
    • AppLovin (APP) upgraded to Buy from Neutral at UBS; tgt raised to $145
    • Aramark (ARMK) upgraded/resumed to Outperform from Sector Perform at RBC Capital Mkts; tgt raised to $42.50
    • Banc of California (BANC) upgraded to Outperform from Mkt Perform at Raymond James; tgt $16
    • BioNTech (BNTX) upgraded to Buy from Hold at Jefferies; tgt raised to $150
    • Dime Community (DCOM) upgraded to Strong Buy from Outperform at Raymond James; tgt raised to $35
    • Entergy (ETR) upgraded to Overweight from Equal Weight at Barclays; tgt raised to $138
    • Gannett (GCI) upgraded to Neutral from Sell at Citigroup, added to 90-day positive catalyst watch; tgt $5.10
    • GE Vernova (GEV) upgraded to Buy from Neutral at BofA Securities; tgt raised to $300
    • Hewlett Packard Enterprise (HPE) upgraded to Buy from Neutral at BofA Securities; tgt raised to $24
    • Lattice Semi (LSCC) upgraded to Buy from Hold at Stifel; tgt $55
    • LivaNova (LIVN) upgraded to Outperform from Neutral at Robert W. Baird; tgt raised to $66
    • Relmada Therapeutics (RLMD) upgraded to Buy from Hold at Jefferies; tgt raised to $13
    • Shopify (SHOP) upgraded to Buy from Neutral at Redburn Atlantic; tgt $99
    • Synovus (SNV) upgraded to Outperform from Mkt Perform at Raymond James; tgt $49
    • Texas Capital (TCBI) upgraded to Outperform from Mkt Perform at Raymond James; tgt $78
    • Torrid (CURV) upgraded to Outperform from Mkt Perform at William Blair
    • Veritex Holdings (VBTX) upgraded to Strong Buy from Mkt Perform at Raymond James; tgt $30
  • Downgrades:
    • Acushnet (GOLF) downgraded to Hold from Buy at Jefferies; tgt lowered to $75
    • Adecoagro S.A. (AGRO) downgraded to Equal-Weight from Overweight at Morgan Stanley; tgt lowered to $12.50
    • Bank OZK (OZK) downgraded to Mkt Perform from Outperform at Raymond James
    • Old Second Bancorp Inc. (OSBC) downgraded to Outperform from Strong Buy at Raymond James; tgt lowered to $18
    • Prosperity Bancshares (PB) downgraded to Outperform from Strong Buy at Raymond James; tgt $80
    • SolarEdge Technologies (SEDG) downgraded to Underperform from Hold at Jefferies; tgt lowered to $17
    • Viasat (VSAT) downgraded to Neutral from Overweight at JP Morgan; tgt lowered to $15
  • Others:
    • Antero Resources (AR) initiated with a Neutral at Citigroup; tgt $29
    • Carvana (CVNA) resumed with a Buy at BofA Securities; tgt $185
    • Definitive Healthcare (DH) initiated with a Buy at BTIG Research; tgt $7
    • Dell (DELL) initiated with an Outperform at Mizuho; tgt $135
    • Fidelis Insurance Holdings Limited (FIHL) initiated with a Neutral at Goldman; tgt $18.50
    • JAKKS Pacific (JAKK) initiated with a Buy at B. Riley Securities; tgt $37
    • Jefferies (JEF) initiated with a Buy at UBS; tgt $67
    • Lightspeed (LSPD) initiated with a Buy at The Benchmark Company; tgt $20
    • Oruka Therapeutics (ORKA) initiated with an Outperform at Leerink Partners; tgt $44
    • Palantir Technologies (PLTR) added to BofA Securities' US 1 List
    • Rhythm Pharmaceuticals (RYTM) initiated with a Mkt Outperform at JMP Securities; tgt $64
    • S&P Global (SPGI) removed from BofA Securities' US 1 List
    • Sempra Energy (SRE) added to BofA Securities' US 1 List
    • Super Micro Computer (SMCI) initiated with a Neutral at Mizuho; tgt $450

>>> Europe : Brokers Upgrades & Downgrades - 17th of September 2024 V3(++)

>>> Up
* Auction Technology Group Raised to Overweight at JPMorgan
* Barry Callebaut Raised to Overweight at Barclays
* BioNTech ADRs Raised to Buy at Jefferies; PT $150
* Bridgepoint PT Raised to 400 pence from 320 pence at Jefferies
* Deutsche Boerse PT Raised to 230 euros at Bankhaus Metzler (+)
* Eni Raised to Buy at Intesa Sanpaolo; PT 17.50 euros
* Gannett Co Raised to Neutral at Citi; PT $5.10
* Hermes Raised to Outperform at BNPP Exane (+)
* Iberdrola PT Raised to 15.50 euros at Morgan Stanley
* Interroll Cut to Reduce at Kepler Cheuvreux (++)
* Julius Baer Raised to Outperform at KBW; PT 62 Swiss francs
* Lattice Semi Raised to Buy at Stifel; PT $55
* Lindt & Spruengli Raised to Overweight at Barclays
* Telia Raised to Outperform at BNPP Exane; PT 40 kronor

>>> Down
* Aker BP Cut to Underperform at RBC; PT 220 kroner
* Applied Materials PT Cut to $185 from $224 at Morgan Stanley
* Avacta Group Cut to Sell at Deutsche Bank; PT 40 pence (+)
* Compass Group Cut to Sector Perform at RBC
* D'Ieteren Cut to Hold at Jefferies; PT 225 euros
* OHLA Cut to Hold at Intermoney Valores
* Roche Bobois SAS Cut to Reduce at IDMidcaps; PT 43 euros (+)
* Sartorius Cut to Hold at Stifel; PT 250 euros
* Siegfried Cut to Hold at Stifel; PT 1,190 Swiss francs
* SolarEdge Cut to Underperform at Jefferies; PT $17
* Suedzucker Cut to Sell at M.M. Warburg; PT 9.40 euros (+)
* Swatch Cut to Underperform at BNPP Exane (+)
* Tele2 Cut to Hold at DNB Markets; PT 120 kronor
* TT Electronics Cut to Hold at Peel Hunt; PT 120 pence
* TT Electronics Cut to Hold at Berenberg; PT 100 pence (+)
* UPM-Kymmene Cut to Neutral at Davy; PT 33 euros (+)

>>> Initiation
* BP Rated New Hold at Intesa Sanpaolo; PT 451 pence
* Crayon Group Rated New Buy at Kepler Cheuvreux; PT 160 kroner (++)
* Erste Rated New Buy at Trigon Dom Maklerski; PT 60 euros
* Eutelsat Rated New Neutral at New Street Research; PT 3.50 euros (++)
* Fabege Rated New Buy at Arctic Securities; PT 125 kronor
* Lanxess Rated New Buy at Kempen & Co; PT 33.50 euros (++)
* Shell Rated New Buy at Intesa Sanpaolo; PT 3,354 pence
* Soiltech Rated New Neutral at Clarksons; PT 58 kroner (+)
* SynBiotic Re-Initiated Buy at mwb research AG; PT 12.50 euros (++)
* Syensqo Rated New Neutral at Kempen & Co; PT 79 euros (++)
* SUSS MicroTec Rated New Buy at Jefferies; PT 76 euros
* Trevi Finanziaria Industrial Rated New Buy at Alantra Equities
* WalkMe Reinstated Underweight at Barclays; PT $8

>>> Call
* Aker BP Cut at RBC, ‘Time for Reflection’ in Energy Sector
* Barry Callebaut, Lindt Gain as Barclays Moves to Overweight (+)
* Compass Downgraded at RBC, Aramark Now Preferred Catering Name
* Hermes Gains as Exane Upgrades to Outperform; Swatch Cut (+)
* Hermes a Defensive Trade to Counter Luxury Slowdown, Exane Says (++)
* Julius Baer Raised to Outperform at KBW on Catalysts (1)
* Luxury Stocks May Decline Further, Lazard Freres Gestion Says
* SUSS MicroTec is a ‘Hidden Gem,’ Initiated Buy at Jefferies

FT : Kepler Cheuvreux buys majority stake in Trackinsight

Kepler Cheuvreux buys majority stake in Trackinsight
Financial services company says the acquisition will provide professionals with ETF selection tools

French financial services company Kepler Cheuvreux has bought a majority stake in Trackinsight, the Financial Times’ data partner for the ETF Hub.

The deal is not expected to have any impact on Trackinsight’s arrangements with the FT. Neither the size of Kepler Cheuvreux’s shareholding in Trackinsight nor the financial terms of the deal were disclosed.   

Paris-based Kepler Cheuvreux’s operations span research, execution and corporate finance. It also has an asset management operation, largely through its Ellipsis AM arm, which manages €3.9bn ($4.3bn) in convertible bonds, credit, volatility and listed derivatives.   

The privately held business employs 600 people across 14 financial centres in Europe, the US and the Middle East, and claims to have 1,300 institutional clients.

Trackinsight, also based in France, operates a proprietary exchange traded fund database; helps institutional investors analyse and select ETFs; and assists in the creation and optimisation of ETF portfolios.

The privately held company, which employs 30 people in Europe and North America and claims 50 institutional clients, also runs websites in partnership with several stock exchanges aimed at professional investors in the rapidly expanding ETF market.

The eight-year-old company’s database covers 11,000 ETFs, which it said represented 99.8 per cent of the European and North American market. Trackinsight’s branding and staff will remain in place.

Kepler Cheuvreux said the acquisition “will provide professionals with ETF selection tools based on high-quality data, cutting-edge analyses for manager and fund selection and innovative portfolio construction tools”.

Philippe Malaise, chief executive and chair of Trackinsight, said: “We are delighted to join forces with a leading partner like Kepler Cheuvreux to embark on the next stage of our development. Technology and innovation in the service of clients are at the heart of our daily concerns.”

Jean-Pierre Ané, deputy chief executive in charge of business development at Kepler Cheuvreux, said it “was already the leading independent European ETF execution provider”, although for compliance and commercial reasons it was not able to disclose data on volumes, commission or market share. More broadly, it said it traded more than €1.5bn of equities a day, on average.

“We aim to go even further by supporting our clients across the entire value chain, from selection to transaction,” Ané added.

Kepler Capital Markets was founded in 1997 by Swiss private banking group Julius Baer, before a spell under the ownership of doomed Icelandic bank Landsbanki, which collapsed during the island’s financial crisis.

It was the subject of a management buyout in 2008 and since then a number of outside investors have built stakes. In 2013 KCM bought Cheuvreux from French bank Crédit Agricole and was renamed Kepler Cheuvreux.

Management and employees now own 27.5 per cent of the company, with 40 per cent of the voting rights. The next largest shareholders are Atlas Merchant Capital, the investment vehicle of former Barclays chief executive Bob Diamond (19.5 per cent), Crédit Agricole (14.6 per cent) and Italian bank UniCredit (10 per cent).

>>> Europe : Brokers Upgrades & Downgrades - 17th of September 2024 V2(+)

>>> Up
* Auction Technology Group Raised to Overweight at JPMorgan
* Barry Callebaut Raised to Overweight at Barclays
* BioNTech ADRs Raised to Buy at Jefferies; PT $150
* Bridgepoint PT Raised to 400 pence from 320 pence at Jefferies
* Deutsche Boerse PT Raised to 230 euros at Bankhaus Metzler (+)
* Eni Raised to Buy at Intesa Sanpaolo; PT 17.50 euros
* Gannett Co Raised to Neutral at Citi; PT $5.10
* Hermes Raised to Outperform at BNPP Exane (+)
* Iberdrola PT Raised to 15.50 euros at Morgan Stanley
* Julius Baer Raised to Outperform at KBW; PT 62 Swiss francs
* Lattice Semi Raised to Buy at Stifel; PT $55
* Lindt & Spruengli Raised to Overweight at Barclays
* Telia Raised to Outperform at BNPP Exane; PT 40 kronor

>>> Down
* Aker BP Cut to Underperform at RBC; PT 220 kroner
* Applied Materials PT Cut to $185 from $224 at Morgan Stanley
* Avacta Group Cut to Sell at Deutsche Bank; PT 40 pence (+)
* Compass Group Cut to Sector Perform at RBC
* D'Ieteren Cut to Hold at Jefferies; PT 225 euros
* OHLA Cut to Hold at Intermoney Valores
* Roche Bobois SAS Cut to Reduce at IDMidcaps; PT 43 euros (+)
* Sartorius Cut to Hold at Stifel; PT 250 euros
* Siegfried Cut to Hold at Stifel; PT 1,190 Swiss francs
* SolarEdge Cut to Underperform at Jefferies; PT $17
* Suedzucker Cut to Sell at M.M. Warburg; PT 9.40 euros (+)
* Swatch Cut to Underperform at BNPP Exane (+)
* Tele2 Cut to Hold at DNB Markets; PT 120 kronor
* TT Electronics Cut to Hold at Peel Hunt; PT 120 pence
* TT Electronics Cut to Hold at Berenberg; PT 100 pence (+)
* UPM-Kymmene Cut to Neutral at Davy; PT 33 euros (+)

>>> Initiation
* BP Rated New Hold at Intesa Sanpaolo; PT 451 pence
* Erste Rated New Buy at Trigon Dom Maklerski; PT 60 euros
* Fabege Rated New Buy at Arctic Securities; PT 125 kronor
* Shell Rated New Buy at Intesa Sanpaolo; PT 3,354 pence
* Soiltech Rated New Neutral at Clarksons; PT 58 kroner (+)
* SUSS MicroTec Rated New Buy at Jefferies; PT 76 euros
* Trevi Finanziaria Industrial Rated New Buy at Alantra Equities
* WalkMe Reinstated Underweight at Barclays; PT $8

>>> Call
* Aker BP Cut at RBC, ‘Time for Reflection’ in Energy Sector
* Barry Callebaut, Lindt Gain as Barclays Moves to Overweight (+)
* Compass Downgraded at RBC, Aramark Now Preferred Catering Name
* Hermes Gains as Exane Upgrades to Outperform; Swatch Cut (+)
* Julius Baer Raised to Outperform at KBW on Catalysts (1)
* Luxury Stocks May Decline Further, Lazard Freres Gestion Says
* SUSS MicroTec is a ‘Hidden Gem,’ Initiated Buy at Jefferies