>>> Europe : Brokers Upgrades & Downgrades - 12th of December 2024

>>> Up
* About You Raised to Equal-Weight at Barclays; PT 6.50 euros
* Amplifon Raised to Buy at Equita; PT 32 euros
* Aspo Raised to Accumulate at Inderes; PT 6.20 euros
* Brookfield Renewable Raised to Overweight at JPMorgan
* Brookfield Renewable Partners Raised to Overweight at JPMorgan
* Diageo Raised to Buy at UBS
* Erste Raised to Buy at Goldman; PT 69 euros
* Leonardo PT Raised to 33.50 euros from 27.50 euros at JPMorgan
* Pennon Raised to Overweight at Barclays; PT 800 pence
* SocGen Raised to Neutral at Goldman; PT 29.25 euros
* United Utilities Raised to Equal-Weight at Barclays

>>> Down
* ABN Amro GDRs Cut to Sell at Goldman; PT 14.40 euros
* About You Cut to Hold at Stifel; PT 6.50 euros
* CaixaBank Cut to Sell at Goldman; PT 5.20 euros
* Carl Zeiss Meditec PT Cut to 40 euros from 45 euros at JPMorgan
* Inditex Cut to Underperform at RBC, Valuation Still Looks Full
* Jet2 Cut to Neutral at Redburn; PT 1,750 pence
* Martela Cut to Sell at Inderes; PT 75 euro cents
* REC Silicon Cut to Sell at AlphaValue/Baader
* Vale ADRs Cut to Equal-Weight at Morgan Stanley

>>> Initiation
* AB Dynamics Rated New Buy at N+1 Singer; PT 2,500 pence
* CENIT AG Rated New Buy at Bankhaus Metzler; PT 16 euros
* DiaSorin Rated New Sector Perform at RBC; PT 110 euros
* Facephi Biometria Rated New Buy at JB Capital Markets
* VGP Rated New Buy at ING; PT 98 euros

>>> Call
* Nemetschek Underweight, Earnings Expectations Too High: JPMorgan
* Temenos Targets Now More Realistic, Raised to Buy at Jefferies

>>> Europe : Brokers Upgrades & Downgrades - 11th of December 2024 V3(++)

>>> Up
* Accsys Tech Raised to Outperform at Oddo BHF; PT 82.44 pence (+)
* Avantium Raised to Neutral at Oddo BHF; PT 2.20 euros (+)
* Coloplast Raised to Neutral at UBS (++)
* Generali PT Raised to 32.67 euros from 31.10 euros at Citi
* Lem Raised to Buy at Kepler on Regained China Market Share (+)
* Publicis Raised to Overweight at JPMorgan; PT 140 euros
* Reckitt Raised to Buy at HSBC; PT 5,500 pence
* RTL Raised to Overweight at JPMorgan
* SocGen Raised to Outperform at KBW; PT 32 euros (+)

>>> Down
* ADP Cut to Hold at Deutsche Bank (+)
* Aena Cut to Neutral at UBS; PT 215 euros (+)
* Aker Solutions Cut to Neutral at JPMorgan; PT 40 kroner
* Ashtead Cut to Neutral at Goldman; PT 6,600 pence
* Baillie Gifford US Growth Trust Cut to Hold at Stifel (+)
* IAG Raised to Buy at Deutsche Bank (+)
* Cemex ADRs Cut to Underperform at RBC
* Dustin Cut to Hold at Kepler Cheuvreux; PT 4.70 kronor (+)
* Man Group Raised to Buy at Canaccord; PT 272 pence (+)
* Melia Hotels Raised to Buy at Deutsche Bank (+)
* Orsted Cut to Underperform at Grupo Santander; PT 394 kroner
* Technip Energies Cut to Underweight at JPMorgan; PT 26 euros

>>> Initiation
* Adyen Reinstated Buy at William O'Neil (+)
* FLSmidth Rated New Buy at Kepler Cheuvreux; PT 448 kroner (+)
* Genus Rated New Buy at Shore Capital
* JetBlue Resumed Equal-Weight at Morgan Stanley; PT $8
* Kuehne + Nagel Rated New Sell at Octavian; PT 180 Swiss francs (+)
* Origin Reinstated Buy at Panmure Liberum; PT 5 euros
* Scandinavian Astor Group Rated New Buy at Pareto Securities
* Southwest Air Resumed Overweight at Morgan Stanley; PT $42

>>> Call
* Aena Cut at Deutsche Bank on Slower Growth, UBS Also Downgrades (+)
* Take-Two Named Top Media Pick at Citi on Game Pipeline
* Morgan Stanley Likes US, China Exposure in Chemicals, Evonik Cut

>>> US Early premarket gappers

Early premarket gappers
  • Gapping up:
    • FEIM +25%, SFIX +24.1%, SKIL +12.8%, RLAY +12%, PHAR +10.3%, NAMS +3.9%, GME +3.2%, OUST +3%, APAM +1.9%, MRVL +1.8%, IDYA +1.5%, ACMR +1.4%, GM +1.3%, VCTR +1.3%, MU +1.1%, FLNC +1%, ROG +0.9%, PRU +0.9%, MORN +0.8%, BCPC +0.8%, KMB +0.8%, BTI +0.8%
  • Gapping down:
    • QTTB -66%, IBRX -16.6%, PLAY -16.4%, SLRN -16.3%, JOBY -6%, CRML -4.9%, CGON -4.6%, GEV -3.9%, SATL -3.8%, CNOB -3.4%, QUBT -3%, NTNX -2.7%, RCKT -2.1%, SIGA -1.2%, SNV -1.2%, JKS -1.1%, BWLP -0.9%, IFF -0.8%

FT : St Pancras owner lays out plan to boost Channel passenger numbers

St Pancras owner lays out plan to boost Channel passenger numbers
Study shows it’s possible to increase capacity from 1,800 travellers an hour to nearly 5,000, says HS1

The owner of London’s St Pancras station has laid out plans to more than double the passenger capacity of the UK’s only international train terminal, taking advantage of booming demand for high speed rail travel.

Robert Sinclair, chief executive of HS1, which owns the station and the high-speed rail track running to the Channel Tunnel, said a study had found that space for international passenger numbers to increase from the current capacity of 1,800 an hour to nearly 5,000.

“There is an amazing opportunity for high speed rail connectivity throughout Europe, and we want to feed into that,” he told the Financial Times.

Several groups are exploring starting new services linking the UK and mainland Europe, while the incumbent Eurostar also has significant growth plans.

But St Pancras operates at close to capacity, and has emerged as one of the biggest obstacles to expanding the international rail market between the UK and continental Europe.

Passengers go through airport-style security, French passport control and UK government departure checks in the station before boarding international trains.

Eurostar was forced to run some trains a third empty after Brexit because queues caused by new passport checks threatened to overwhelm the limited space at St Pancras. Planned new EU biometric border checks threaten to further complicate the process.

Yet Sinclair said a study by consultants Active Thinking, commissioned by HS1, found that a huge rise in capacity was possible without rebuilding St Pancras.

He said that passenger numbers could grow to about 2,400 an hour in the next three to four years through changes including additional security lanes and staff.

In the longer-term, Sinclair said parts of St Pancras’s “international zone” would need to be redesigned for passenger numbers to approach 5,000 an hour.

This would include changing the layout of security and immigration, and expanding the departure lounge by 50 per cent. Many passengers would also wait on trains rather than in departure areas to free up space.

Still, Sinclair conceded the plan would need the French government to agree to providing more immigration officers, “which is not in our gift”.

Sinclair joined HS1 in March this year following six years at London’s City airport, which sells itself to business travellers as a seamless passenger experience including short waits to pass through the airport.

He said underpinning all of the changes would be “more of a focus on speed and throughput” at St Pancras.

“We want a ‘turn up and go’ arrangement. Not turn up two hours beforehand, get through security and wait in the departure lounge. This is a train station, not an airport,” he said.

HS1 charges train operators by the minute to run on its tracks, and along with Getlink, the operator of the Channel Tunnel, has long wanted to encourage more services between London and the continent.

Getlink earlier this year offered €50mn in support to encourage companies to open new cross-Channel rail services.

Sinclair said the new capacity at St Pancras could be used either by Eurostar, which has pledged to buy up to 50 new trains, or by a rival operator.

Sir Richard Branson’s Virgin Group, a consortium backed by the largest shareholders in Mobico, formerly known as National Express, are among five companies to have explored launching a rival service to Eurostar.

“Our high speed line has got 50 per cent spare capacity. You couldn’t make it up. There’s a significant opportunity that is sitting there waiting underutilised,” Sinclair said.

HS1 plans to launch the Active Thinking study in the coming weeks, before commissioning a more detailed architectural design for the planned changes to St Pancras.

>>> Europe : Brokers Upgrades & Downgrades - 11th of December 2024 V2(+)

>>> Up
* Accsys Tech Raised to Outperform at Oddo BHF; PT 82.44 pence (+)
* Avantium Raised to Neutral at Oddo BHF; PT 2.20 euros (+)
* Generali PT Raised to 32.67 euros from 31.10 euros at Citi
* Lem Raised to Buy at Kepler on Regained China Market Share (+)
* Publicis Raised to Overweight at JPMorgan; PT 140 euros
* Reckitt Raised to Buy at HSBC; PT 5,500 pence
* RTL Raised to Overweight at JPMorgan
* SocGen Raised to Outperform at KBW; PT 32 euros (+)

>>> Down
* ADP Cut to Hold at Deutsche Bank (+)
* Aena Cut to Neutral at UBS; PT 215 euros (+)
* Aker Solutions Cut to Neutral at JPMorgan; PT 40 kroner
* Ashtead Cut to Neutral at Goldman; PT 6,600 pence
* Baillie Gifford US Growth Trust Cut to Hold at Stifel (+)
* IAG Raised to Buy at Deutsche Bank (+)
* Cemex ADRs Cut to Underperform at RBC
* Dustin Cut to Hold at Kepler Cheuvreux; PT 4.70 kronor (+)
* Man Group Raised to Buy at Canaccord; PT 272 pence (+)
* Melia Hotels Raised to Buy at Deutsche Bank (+)
* Orsted Cut to Underperform at Grupo Santander; PT 394 kroner
* Technip Energies Cut to Underweight at JPMorgan; PT 26 euros

>>> Initiation
* Adyen Reinstated Buy at William O'Neil (+)
* FLSmidth Rated New Buy at Kepler Cheuvreux; PT 448 kroner (+)
* Genus Rated New Buy at Shore Capital
* JetBlue Resumed Equal-Weight at Morgan Stanley; PT $8
* Kuehne + Nagel Rated New Sell at Octavian; PT 180 Swiss francs (+)
* Origin Reinstated Buy at Panmure Liberum; PT 5 euros
* Scandinavian Astor Group Rated New Buy at Pareto Securities
* Southwest Air Resumed Overweight at Morgan Stanley; PT $42

>>> Call
* Aena Cut at Deutsche Bank on Slower Growth, UBS Also Downgrades (+)
* Take-Two Named Top Media Pick at Citi on Game Pipeline
* Morgan Stanley Likes US, China Exposure in Chemicals, Evonik Cut

>>> Europe : Brokers Upgrades & Downgrades - 11th of December 2024

>>> Up
* Generali PT Raised to 32.67 euros from 31.10 euros at Citi
* Publicis Raised to Overweight at JPMorgan; PT 140 euros
* Reckitt Raised to Buy at HSBC; PT 5,500 pence
* RTL Raised to Overweight at JPMorgan

>>> Down
* Aker Solutions Cut to Neutral at JPMorgan; PT 40 kroner
* Ashtead Cut to Neutral at Goldman; PT 6,600 pence
* Cemex ADRs Cut to Underperform at RBC
* Evonik Cut to Underweight at Morgan Stanley; PT 18.60 euros
* Orsted Cut to Underperform at Grupo Santander; PT 394 kroner
* Technip Energies Cut to Underweight at JPMorgan; PT 26 euros

>>> Initiation
* Genus Rated New Buy at Shore Capital
* JetBlue Resumed Equal-Weight at Morgan Stanley; PT $8
* Origin Reinstated Buy at Panmure Liberum; PT 5 euros
* Scandinavian Astor Group Rated New Buy at Pareto Securities
* Southwest Air Resumed Overweight at Morgan Stanley; PT $42

>>> Call
* Take-Two Named Top Media Pick at Citi on Game Pipeline
* Morgan Stanley Likes US, China Exposure in Chemicals, Evonik Cut

>>> What to look at today - 11th of December 2024

Asian shares retreated as traders await key US inflation data for clues on whether the Federal Reserve will cut or hold interest rates next week. The dollar steadied after a three-day gain.  Stocks in Hong Kong and mainland China fluctuated as an annual economic meeting begins in Beijing on Wednesday, while those in Taiwan and Australia dropped. South Korean equities rose for a second session, continuing a recovery after last week’s short-lived martial law event that thrust the country into political turmoil.  A Bloomberg index of dollar strength was steady in the runup to American consumer price index data. S&P 500 contracts were little changed on Wednesday.  Wednesday’s CPI will offer Fed officials another look at inflation ahead of their next meeting. Swap trading projects about an 85% chance of a quarter-point rate reduction this month. Meanwhile, China’s two-day Central Economic Work Conference is expected to map out policies for next year, with traders emboldened by stimulus signals from top leaders. China may raise its budget deficit to the highest in three decades and make the deepest interest-rate cuts since 2015, according to economists. At least seven Chinese brokerages forecast that next year’s fiscal deficit target could reach 4% of gross domestic product, the widest since a major tax reform in 1994. Beijing has historically kept its budget deficit ratio at or below 3%. Chinese and Hong Kong shares were positive through much of the Asian morning, then erased gains. With little follow-through from China’s politburo announcements, “it may be a case of once bitten, twice shy for investors, who are becoming more skeptical and less willing to buy into stimulus, given the lack of follow through with past policy promises,” said Kyle Rodda, a senior market analyst at Capital.com. Treasury 10-year yields rose slightly. In Japan, the yen strengthened slightly after inflation in corporate goods prices accelerated to the fastest pace in 16 months, an outcome that points to growing inflationary pressure in the economy and supports the central bank’s further normalization of policy.  Yet, the local currency remained weak as traders dialed back their bets on a December rate hike. Overnight indexed swaps priced in about a 20% chance of a December rate increase, tumbling from 60% at the beginning of last week. Meanwhile, the bid by Nippon Steel Corp. to buy United States Steel Corp. looks to be entering its endgame, with President Joe Biden to formally block the $14.1 billion sale on national security grounds once the deal is referred back to him later this month, people familiar with the matter said. Chinese President Xi Jinping opened a probe into Nvidia Corp. and banned the export of several rare materials with military applications, getting a head start on a looming trade war with the US. Beijing has also limited sales to the US and Europe of key components used to build drones. Oil gained ahead of key US inflation data and a monthly report from OPEC that will provide a snapshot on the market. Gold fell for the first time in four days. US After Hours GM +3.2% to no longer fund Cruise's robotaxi development work; SFIX +20.4%, GME +2% higher on earnings; PLAY -9.8%, GEV -2.8% lower on earnings/guidance.

Nikkei -0.17% Hang Seng -0.64% CSI -0.45% Shanghai -0.07% Shenzen +0.15%

Eur$ 1.0527 CNH 7.2548 CNY 7.2497 JPY 151.73 GBP 1.2767 CHF 0.8835 RUB 103.1118 TRY 34.8633 WTI$ 69.06 +0.70% Gold 2,689 BTC 97,546 +0.66% ETH 3,661 +0.56%

S&P +0.07% Nasdaq +0.10% EuroStoxx -0.20% FTSE -0.42% Dax -0.24% SMI

Macro :
- China to Restrict Visas to US Officials for Threatening HK Curbs
- Watch French Stocks as Macron Plans to Name New PM Within Days
- *ITALY MAY SEEK ADDITIONAL EU400M FROM BANKS, INSURERS: CORRIERE

Keep an eye on :
- SLRN US : *ACELYRIN: PHASE 2B/3 OF IZOKIBEP DID NOT MEET PRIMARY ENDPOINT
- ADS GY : Adidas ADRs Turn Negative on Tax Raid Report by Manager Mag
- ALV GY : Allianz’s Baete Says Asset Manager AGI ‘Very Important’ to Group
- AWE LN : Alphawave IP to Launch Offering of About $150m Convertible Bonds
- GOOGL US : Alphabet Climbs After Breakthrough With Willow Quantum Chip (1)
- AAPL US : Apple’s Next Smartwatch Will Be Able to Send Texts via Satellite
- BLCO CN : Blackstone Could Pull Out of Takeover Bid for Bausch + Lomb: FT
- GBF GY : Bilfinger Approves Share Buyback of Up to €50 Million
- BA US : Boeing Wins $450.5 Million U.S. Air Force Contract
- BMW GY : BMW Proposes Nicolas Peter as New Supervisory Board Chairman
- AFX GY : Carl Zeiss Meditec FY Revenue Meets Estimates
- COLR BB : Colruyt 1H Gross Margin Beats Estimates
- ACA FP : Credit Agricole CEO Emerges as Key Player in Italy Bank Standoff
- CVC NA : CVC Backers Seek to Raise About €300 Million in Share Sale
- ENGI FP : Two Mexico Families Sue Engie Over Gas Leaks: Le Monde
- ENI IM : Eni Fuel Depot Hit by Blast Won’t Reopen Until Probe Is Complete
- GRF SM : Grifols Holder Flat Footed Calls for Further Board Reform
- HSY US : Mondelez’s Takeover of Hershey Would Rank as Top Deal of 2024
- ITX SM : Inditex 9M Ebit Misses Estimates
- 1310 HK : I Squared Capital Is Said to Begin Due Diligence Work on HKBN
- LION US : Activist Anson Takes Lionsgate Studios Stake, May Push for Sale
- MKL US : Activist Jana Pushes Insurer Markel to Separate Venture Unit
- B4B GY :Metro AG FY Net Sales Meets Estimates
- MSFT US : Google Asks FTC to Kill Microsoft’s Exclusive Cloud Deal with OpenAI
- 7201 JP : Nissan to Name Jérémie Papin CFO on Wed., Yomiuri Says
- PHARM NA : Pharming Group Posts Positive Topline Data of Leniolisib Phase 3
- QIA GY : Qiagen, Hologic Gets Buys as Jefferies Rates Diagnostics Firms
- SAN FP : Sanofi Gets FDA Fast Track Label for Two Flu/Covid Combo Jabs
- SMCI US : Super Micro CEO Confident Won’t Be Delisted From Nasdaq: Reuters
- SOON SW : Sonova Names Elodie Carr-Cingari CFO From July at Latest
- S32 AU : South32 Hopeful Trump Will Allow Access to Alaska Copper Region
- SWECB SS : Sweco Gets Contracts for Two ‘Major’ German Hospital Projects
- TTWO US : Take-Two Named Top Media Pick at Citi on Game Pipeline
- TLX GY : Talanx Proposes 2024 Dividend of €2.70/Shr; Posts 2027 Goals (1)
- TE FP : Technip and GE Vernova Secure Contract for NZT Power Project
- TSLA US : *SPACEX VALUE SET AT ABOUT $350 BILLION IN INSIDER SHARE SALE
- TUI1 GY : TUI Sees 2025 Underlying Ebit +7% to +10%
- X US : Biden Plans to Finally Kill Nippon Steel Bid for US Steel
- VOD LN : Vodafone UK Sued for £120 Million for Breaching Franchise Deals

FT : Bausch + Lomb buyout teeters as Blackstone balks at price tag

Bausch + Lomb buyout teeters as Blackstone balks at price tag
Private equity group likely to drop out of consortium with TPG exploring bid for eyecare group

Blackstone has cooled on taking part in a joint takeover bid for eyecare company Bausch + Lomb, jeopardising one of the biggest leveraged buyouts in healthcare this year, according to people familiar with talks.

The private equity group in October teamed up with investor TPG to explore a bid for Bausch + Lomb. But Blackstone had subsequently balked at the frothy price expectations of the seller, the people said.

An auction process for Bausch + Lomb, which sells contact lenses, dry eye drugs and surgical ophthalmology equipment, began earlier this year as its heavily indebted parent company Bausch Health looked to pay down debt.

Two people close to the talks said Blackstone would probably drop out of the consortium, reducing the odds of a deal. Talks were ongoing and a deal could still be clinched if Bausch + Lomb was willing to accept a lower price or if TPG found another private equity group to act as partner on the deal, the people added.

Negotiations between Bausch + Lomb and the consortium were held as recently as the end of last week. Shares in Bausch + Lomb stood at just over $20 at Tuesday’s close, giving it an enterprise value including debt of more than $11bn. Bausch + Lomb’s share price had jumped 30 per cent since the Financial Times first reported in September that it had hired Goldman Sachs to run a sales process. However, the stock fell more than 9 per cent in after-hours trading following the FT’s report on Blackstone’s reluctance to join the bid.

Bausch + Lomb’s board — which includes hedge fund titan John Paulson and a representative of activist investor Carl Icahn, who are both major Bausch Health shareholders — had been hoping for an offer at a sizeable premium to $20 a share to get a deal over the line, but the consortium of TPG and Blackstone pushed back at offering such a high price.

The company is run by chief executive Brent Saunders, a well-known dealmaker who pushed the $63bn sale of botox maker Allergan to pharma group AbbVie, and is a close ally of Icahn.

TPG already owns an eyecare business — BVI Medical — and questions arose in due diligence about how it could be successfully combined with Bausch + Lomb.

Some 88 per cent of Bausch + Lomb is owned by Bausch Health, which has been struggling with a $21bn debt pile and a languishing share price left over from when it was previously known as Valeant. Valeant came under pressure from investors for accounting irregularities and a costly acquisition spree.

Bausch Health has been trying to spin off Bausch + Lomb as a listed company but the process faltered as Bausch Health creditors, including Apollo Global Management, Elliott Management and GoldenTree Asset Management, fretted over the impact it would have on the parent company’s balance sheet.

Blackstone, TPG and Bausch + Lomb declined to comment.

Bausch + Lomb has posted four quarters of about 20 per cent year-on-year sales growth, and its management is confident it can continue to thrive even if a deal falls apart, two people said. The eyecare company is projected by analysts to generate $872mn in earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortisation this year on $4.7bn in revenues.

Bausch Health, meanwhile, is facing concerns about $10bn in debt that is set to come due before the end of 2027 — with the highest priority being a $2.4bn fixed-rate loan due next year.