>>> TradeGate Pre-Market Indications

DAX:
  • Allianz (ALV TH) +0.7%
    • Allianz Lifts Profit Target as Baete Vows Higher Investor Payout
  • SAP (SAP TH) -2%
    • Oracle Posts Disappointing Growth, Denting Cloud Enthusiasm
MDAX:
  • Thyssenkrupp (TKA TH) +1.1%
  • Delivery Hero (DHER TH) -1.3%
    • Talabat Rises in Dubai Debut After Gulf’s Biggest IPO for 2024
  • TeamViewer (TMV TH) -5.1%
    • TeamViewer to Buy 1E From Carlyle for $720M Enterprise Value
SDAX:
  • RENK Group AG (R3NK TH) +1.2%
  • CompuGroup (COP TH) -0.4%
    • CompuGroup Cut to Hold at Berenberg; PT 22 euros

FT : AllianceBernstein to sue Switzerland over $17bn Credit Suisse debt wipeout

AllianceBernstein to sue Switzerland over $17bn Credit Suisse debt wipeout
US asset manager will join case over decision when UBS took over struggling rival

US asset manager AllianceBernstein is preparing to sue Switzerland for $225mn over the decision to wipe out $17bn of debt when the country’s government orchestrated the takeover of Credit Suisse by rival UBS last year.

The group, which manages about $800bn in assets, is set to be added next month as a plaintiff in a case brought by law firm Quinn Emanuel Urquhart & Sullivan on behalf of Credit Suisse bondholders, according to people familiar with the details.

AllianceBernstein will be the first large institutional investor to join the claim and is expected to seek about $225mn in damages from the Swiss state, taking the total value of the lawsuit to $375mn, the people said.

The case, which was first filed in the Southern District of New York in June, relates to the controversial writedown of Credit Suisse’s AT1 bonds when the scandal-hit lender was forced into a rescue merger with UBS in March last year.

Quinn Emanuel has argued that the deal was brokered by the Swiss government and was an unlawful encroachment on investors’ property rights.

AT1 bonds are a form of bank capital that converts into equity or is written down when a lender runs into trouble. However, the UBS Credit Suisse deal upended the traditional hierarchy among bank creditors by imposing losses on bondholders while allowing equity investors to recover $3.3bn.

The Swiss government, which is being represented by law firm Wachtell, Lipton, Rosen & Katz, filed a motion last week to dismiss the Quinn Emanuel complaint.

In court filings, Switzerland argued that as a foreign state, it was entitled to sovereign immunity from the lawsuit and that the dispute should be adjudicated in a Swiss court.

AllianceBernstein and Quinn Emanuel declined to comment. Lawyers representing the Swiss Confederation did not respond to a request for comment.

The Financial Times has previously reported that lawyers at Quinn Emanuel chose to sue in the US because they believe there is a greater chance of convincing a judge to waive the country’s sovereign immunity rights.

Legal cases against sovereign states for expropriation are rare because many countries have reciprocal investment treaties. However, Switzerland is not party to such treaties in many of the countries where the Credit Suisse AT1 investors reside, most notably the US.

Quinn Emanuel has a history of pursuing legal cases against nation states. The firm last year won a long-running UK legal battle with Argentina over sovereign bonds that the country issued as part of its post-financial crisis debt restructuring.

The Swiss government’s decision to introduce an emergency law that allowed Finma, the country’s financial regulator, to write down Credit Suisse’s AT1 bonds has generated more than $9bn of legal claims. Most have targeted Finma.

A Swiss parliamentary commission that has been investigating the causes of Credit Suisse’s collapse and the government’s role in the UBS takeover is expected to publish its findings by the end of the year.

>>> What to look at today - 10th of December 2024

Chinese shares gained along with most Asian equities after the nation’s top leaders signaled bolder stimulus next year to revive the struggling economy.  China’s benchmark equity gauge jumped more than 3% at the open before trimming its advance. Stocks in South Korea and Japan also rallied. Iron ore rose to a two-month high on optimism Beijing’s pledges will flow through the economy. The Australian dollar fell after the central bank said inflation risks look to be easing. Chinese President Xi Jinping’s decision-making Politburo vowed to embrace a “moderately loose” monetary policy in 2025, signaling more rate cuts ahead and shifting from a “prudent” strategy that’s held for nearly 14 years. Investors will now shift focus to annual closed-door Central Economic Work Conference due to start Wednesday. Brokerages raised forecasts for the budget deficit next year following the news. Shares in China and Hong Kong shares trimmed their opening surge as investors awaited further details of the potential stimulus and on a possible unwinding of bullish bets put on last week. Investors had increased bullish positioning on the nation’s equities prior to the Politburo’s announcements, Citigroup Inc. said. The Aussie extended an intraday decline after the Reserve Bank of Australia kept interest rates on hold as economists forecast, but said it’s gaining some confidence inflation pressures are easing. The US Treasury 10-year yield fell one basis point to 4.19%, while the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index was little changed. US stock futures traded in a narrow range. hinese manufacturers have begun limiting sales to the US and Europe of key components used to build unmanned aerial vehicles that have become a vital part of Ukraine’s defense. The moves are a prelude to broader export restrictions on drone parts that western officials expect Beijing to enforce in the new year, according to people who asked not to be identified.  Elsewhere in Asia, Korean equities headed for their first daily advance since last week’s short-lived martial law thrust the country into political turmoil. The Justice Ministry banned President Yoon Suk Yeol from traveling overseas as a series of probes put the embattled leader at risk of detention over his chaotic declaration of military rule. In the US, the S&P 500 slipped from nearly overbought technical levels, following a series of all-time highs, with traders awaiting key inflation data that will help shape the outlook for Federal Reserve monetary policy. Nvidia Corp. slid as China opened a probe over suspicions the US chipmaker broke anti-monopoly laws around a 2020 deal. US data including Wednesday’s consumer price index will offer Fed officials a final look at the pricing environment ahead of their meeting the following week. Any indication that progress has stalled on the inflation front could well undercut the chances of a third straight reduction in rates.  HSBC Holdings Plc is forecasting another 10% gain for the S&P 500 Index in 2025.  Gold was supported by China’s central bank adding bullion to its reserves for the first time in seven months and as concerns about the Middle East bolstered haven demand. Crude oil prices slipped as traders remained focus on the uncertainty in Middle East amid geopolitical tensions even as China’s announcements limited the downside.

Nikkei +0.53% Hang Seng +0.24% CSI +0.90% Shanghai +0.75% Shenzen +1.16%

Eur$ 1.0563 CNH 7.2475 CNY 7.2432 JPY 151.25 GBP 1.2758 CHF 0.8775 RUB 100.4409 TRY 34.8432 WTI$ 68.02 Gold 2668 BTC 97,172 +0.30% ETH 3,732 +1%

S&P -0.08% Nasdaq -0.12% EuroStoxx -0.48% FTSE -0.50% Dax -0.39% SMI -016%

Macro :
- Brussels probes Google and Meta secret ads deal to target teens
- Europe Is Reaching a Limit to Its Wind Power Expansion
- Birinyi’s Rubin ‘Uneasy’ About S&P 500 Run Amid Lack of Skeptics
- Sam Altman Says He Wants to Offer OpenAI Products in Europe
- Chelsea FC Owner Boehly, RedBird Discuss Telegraph Bid: FT

Keep an eye on :
- AALB NA : Aalberts Plans up to €500M Divestment Program, Sets 2030 Goals
- ALV GY : Allianz Sets Target of Returning 75% of Income to Shareholders
- ALO FP : Alstom Wins $515m Contract for Metrolink in Southern California
- ANIM IM : Caltagirone Raises Stake in Anima to 5.3% From 3.2%: Consob
- BMW GY : BMW Sees Flat Mexico Sales on Trump Tariffs, Peso Weakness
- BA US : Boeing Restarted 737 Max Output Last Week: Reuters
- CAVA US : Cava Drops 12%, Falls Below Uptrend Dating Back to Dec. 2023
- CNA LN : Centrica Sees Earnings in Line With Consensus
- ACA FP : Credit Agricole to Review BPM Stake Boost Up to 20% in Next 6m
- ACA FP : Credit Agricole Considering Buying Apax’s GamaLife, Sole Reports
- DHER GY : Talabat Rises in Dubai Debut After Gulf’s Biggest IPO for 2024
- EAPI FP : Euroapi Names David Seignolle as New CEO (Dec. 9)
- HSY US : Mondelez Said to Mull Takeover of US Chocolate Maker Hershey
- HUSQB SS : Husqvarna Group Sees 4Q Organic Sales to Decline by 5%
- LI FP : Klépierre Footfall Rises 7% at European Malls Nov. 29-Dec. 1
- LAND SW : Landis+Gyr Names Venkatesan as Americas Head, Succeeding Cromie
- LLY US : *LILLY APPROVES $15B SHARE BUYBACK, BOOSTS DIVIDEND
- LPK GY : LPKF Cuts FY Revenue Forecast, Misses Estimates
- M US : Macy’s Unloads Downtown Brooklyn Store for $23m: NYP
- MXCT LN : MaxCyte Shares Jump by Most Since May on Cost Cutting Plan
- MSTR US : MicroStrategy Buys More Bitcoin Amid Scrutiny: Financials Wrap
- N91 LN : Volatility to Again Impact European Financials in 2025: JPMorgan
- NWSA US : Rupert Murdoch Fails in Bid to Change Family Trust
- ON US : On Semi Buys Silicon Carbide JFET Tech Unit From Qorvo for $115M
- ONTEX BB : Ontex: Update on Acquisition of Treasury Shares
- ORA FP : Orange Fined EU50m for Placing Email Ads Without Consent: CNIL
- PEAN SW : Peach Property Completes Capital Increase
- PRU LN : Prudential Is Said to Weigh Options for Asset Manager Eastspring
- ROG SW : Roche Starts Poseida Therapeutics Tender Offer for $9/Share
- SAP GY : Oracle Falls as Cloud Leads to Revenue Missing Expectations (1)
- SBBB SS : Landlord SBB Gets Acceleration Letter From Corbin Capital Funds
- STLA US : Meloni, Stellantis’ Elkann End Dispute to Save Italy Auto Jobs
- SEV FP : Suez CEO Soussan to Leave Group Jan. 31
- TMV GY : TeamViewer to Buy 1E From Carlyle for $720M Enterprise Value
- TSLA US : Xiaomi Teases Tesla-Like SUV for Summer in Big EV Expansion
- 7732 JP : Topcon Gets Buyout Offers From KKR, EQT as Japan M&A Heats Up
- 2330 TT : TSMC Posts 34% Sales Growth in November on Sustained AI Demand
- URW FP : Unibail Holder CPPIB Offers About 3.3m Shares: Terms
- VOW GY : VW to Resume Protracted Cost-Cutting Talks With Labor Next Week
- X US : Nippon Steel Makes Final Push to Win Over US Workers
- WPP LN : HIG Submitted Formal Offer for Kantar Media, Sky Reports

>>> Europe : Brokers Upgrades & Downgrades - 10th of December 2024

>>> Up
* British Land Raised to Buy at Goldman; PT 500 pence
* DWS Raised to Overweight at JPMorgan; PT 48 euros
* Hershey PT Raised to $190 from $166 at TD Cowen
* Hikma Raised to Outperform at RBC
* Interpublic Raised to Equal-Weight at Wells Fargo; PT $34
* Norwegian Cruise Raised to Buy at Goldman; PT $35
* Qiagen Raised to Buy at Jefferies
* Swissquote Raised to Add at AlphaValue/Baader
* Telecom Italia Raised to Overweight at Barclays
* Unite Group Raised to Overweight at JPMorgan; PT 1,070 pence
* UPS Raised to Outperform at BMO; PT $150

>>> Down
* Allfunds Cut to Underperform at Oddo BHF; PT 4.60 euros
* BT Cut to Equal-Weight at Barclays; PT 190 pence
* Cofinimmo Cut to Underweight at JPMorgan; PT 63 euros
* CompuGroup Cut to Hold at Berenberg; PT 22 euros
* EDP SA Cut to Hold at HSBC; PT 3.80 euros
* EDP Renovaveis Cut to Hold at HSBC; PT 11.70 euros
* FCC Cut to Add at AlphaValue/Baader
* Gecina Cut to Neutral at JPMorgan; PT 110 euros
* Kojamo Cut to Underweight at JPMorgan; PT 10.50 euros
* Klepierre Cut to Underweight at JPMorgan; PT 30 euros
* KPN Cut to Equal-Weight at Barclays; PT 4.20 euros
* LondonMetric Cut to Neutral at JPMorgan; PT 226 pence
* Ninety One Cut to Underweight at JPMorgan; PT 159 pence
* Schroders Cut to Neutral at JPMorgan; PT 353 pence
* Snam Cut to Hold at HSBC; PT 4.90 euros

>>> Initiation
* AT&T Rated New Outperform at Bernstein; PT $28
* Carbios SACA Rated New Buy at Stifel; PT 19 euros
* DSV Rated New Outperform at Wolfe; PT 1,900 kroner
* Embla Medical HF Rated New Buy at Intron Health; PT 56 kroner
* Jubilee Metals Group Reinstated Outperform at RBC; PT 8.30 pence
* Schneider Electric Rated New Equal-Weight at Oxcap
* T-Mobile Rated New Market Perform at Bernstein; PT $265
* Truecaller Rated New Buy at Nordea; PT 62 kronor

>>> Call
* Buy Europe Stocks in 2025 as Pessimism Peaking: Citi’s Manthey
* Volatility to Again Impact European Financials in 2025: JPMorgan
* Embla Medical Has Multiple Upside Drivers, New Buy at Intron
* Hikma Upgraded at RBC, Offers Attractive, Diversified Growth
* JPMorgan Sees Opportunities in Property, Yields Remain Challenge

FT : The fight for Banco BPM heats up

The fight for Banco BPM heats up
Europe has long been ripe for bank consolidation. The first signs of the potential M&A wave in the sector have arrived this year, first over Germany’s Commerzbank, and now for the Italian lender Banco BPM.

On Friday, France’s Crédit Agricole — which is already Banco BPM’s biggest shareholder — further boosted its stake in the lender.

The French bank entered into financial contracts that will lift its holding from 9.9 per cent to 15.1 per cent. And that’s just the latest step. Crédit Agricole’s plan is to ultimately get approval from regulators to own up to 19.99 per cent.

This sounds familiar because a similar stake-building strategy using derivatives played out a couple of months ago between UniCredit and Germany’s Commerzbank.

UniCredit and its chief executive Andrea Orcel have been on the prowl to build a European banking champion. But like the Commerzbank situation, Banco BPM also rejected the Italian bank’s €10.1bn takeover bid in late November.

Banco BPM hasn’t just been sitting around, either. It took a 5 per cent stake in Monte dei Paschi di Siena (MPS) a few weeks ago.

The new stake in MPS spurred Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni’s government to hope that the smaller players in the country’s banking sector might team up to compete with UniCredit and Intesa Sanpaolo, the country’s largest lender.

While Crédit Agricole’s bigger stake in BPM Banco means that the French bank now might be a bigger hurdle between UniCredit and a takeover, UniCredit says it doesn’t change anything.

“We were always prepared to negotiate with [Crédit Agricole], as this would have been necessary whatever the scale of their shareholding,” UniCredit said in response to the Crédit Agricole news.

Orcel and Crédit Agricole chief executive Philippe Brassac had been scheduled to meet to discuss the Banco BPM takeover bid, according to one person with knowledge of the talks.

But whatever the outcome of the approach, the country’s takeover rules put Banco BPM in limbo. Under the so-called passivity rule, the bank can’t buy further stakes in MPS, or bump up its offer for the asset manager Anima, which it has been pursuing.

Can Banco BPM successfully fend off the overtures?

FT : Are ‘Merger Mondays’ back?


Dealmakers: say goodbye to your weekends
Deals, typically announced on Monday after a weekend sprint, have for the past two years languished at decades-level lows. But it looks like lawyers, investment bankers and other advisers have busier weekends to look forward to.

On Monday a rush of big deals crossed the wire in the US, which amounted to more than $35bn in transactions. After a long drought, so-called merger Mondays might be back.

It started with Omnicom, which agreed to a $13bn all-stock acquisition of rival advertising group Interpublic, a tie-up that would create the world’s largest advertising agency.

The combined company, with $25bn in annual revenue, will be better positioned to compete with Google parent company Alphabet and Facebook parent Meta in competing for digital advertising dollars.

Then came GTCR and Apax Partners’ $13.4bn sale of insurance brokerage AssuredPartners to competitor Arthur Gallagher, one of the year’s largest asset sales. Finally, Novolex’s near-$7bn deal for Pactiv Evergreen, the latest consolidation in the packaging and manufacturing industry.

For some dealmakers, the numerous deals are a matter of convenience more than broader optimism. With a few weekends left in the year, the time for announcing transformative transactions without spoiling Christmas dinner or a New Year’s holiday party is limited.

“I wouldn’t read into it,” one of Wall Street’s top mergers and acquisitions bankers told DD. “If you’re trying to get deals announced, you’re trying to get them announced quickly.”

But after several years of a record-low number of deals, other lawyers and investment bankers can’t help but interpret Monday’s spate of events as a sign of more to come.

The imminent return of Donald Trump to the White House has lifted hopes that larger corporations will pursue transformative transactions.

That’s even if Gail Slater, his nominee to lead the Department of Justice’s antitrust division is considered an advocate of tough antitrust stances (at least on Big Tech).

“It can’t get worse than the antitrust environment we’ve been in,” said George Casey, the global chair of Linklaters’ corporate practice.

That’s led some big corporations to express curiosity about the possibility of tie-ups. Get ready for a host of “exploring takeover” headlines — such as Mondelez cozying up to US chocolate maker Hershey, as Bloomberg reported.

At a minimum, dealmakers are fielding more phone calls. At least, that’s the case for prolific Paul Weiss dealmaker Scott Barshay.

“Clients who’ve been sitting on the sidelines for the past four years are suddenly eager to explore deals,” he said. “Even the challenging ones.”

>>> US After Hours Summary: AI +10%, MDB +6.1% gaining on earnings; ORCL -6.8%,

After Hours Summary: AI +10%, MDB +6.1% gaining on earnings; ORCL -6.8%, TOL -2.9% both drop following quarterly results

After Hours Gainers:

Companies trading higher in after hours in reaction to earnings/guidance: AI +10%, MDB +6.1%, PHR +4.7%, MTN +3.8%, ZETA +0.7% (guidance)

Companies trading higher in after hours in reaction to news: NBTX +14.7% (completes dose escalation and expansion parts of Phase 1 study), BMEA +6.4% (prelim data from COVALENT-103 Study), FATE +1.5% (Phase 1 data), HRTG +1.5% (authorizes $10 mln for repurchases), LLY +0.9% (approves $15 bln for repurchases and increases dividend), CE +0.8% (names new CEO; Chairman stepping down), EPRT +0.6% (increases dividend), COHR +0.6% (general availability of industrial temperature range), DOV +0.4% (CFO to retire; names new CFO), IVZ +0.2% (prelim AUM), BKD +0.1% (November occupancy)

After Hours Losers:

Companies trading lower in after hours in reaction to earnings/guidance: PL -11.9%, YEXT -9.6%, ORCL -6.8%, HQY -6.4%, BRZE -4.7%, TOL -2.9%, CASY -1.6%, ZUO -0.8%

Companies trading lower in after hours in reaction to news: FLNC -10.6% ($300 mln convertible notes offering), TARA -7.9% (stock offering), SEI -5.7% (stock offering), VOYA -2.2% (loss ratio to increase 90-105%), KRYS -2% (provides update on EMA's regulatory review), RKLB -0.6% (launches suborbital mission), BR -0.1% (launches AI-powered algorithm insights service), SMAR -0.1% (shareholders approve merger)

FT : Barrick ‘never’ planned to use dealmaker Ian Hannam on Randgold merger

Barrick ‘never’ planned to use dealmaker Ian Hannam on Randgold merger
Denial by chair of Canadian miner comes as veteran commodities banker claims he engineered $6bn deal but was not paid

Barrick Gold’s chair said he “never” planned to appoint veteran commodities dealmaker Ian Hannam to advise on its tie-up with Randgold, after the banker sued claiming he engineered the $6bn deal but was not paid.

John Thornton told the High Court in London that while he had been happy to have Hannam’s views on the merger, as there was “very little downside” to doing so, it had always been his intention to use Wall Street rainmaker Michael Klein on the 2018 deal.

Thornton, one of the mining industry’s most influential figures, appeared in the witness box on Monday in a case that is shedding unusual insights into how top investment bankers pitch to executives — and scrap over fees — on multibillion-dollar deals.

Hannam & Partners, Hannam’s boutique, is demanding up to $18mn from Canada’s Barrick Gold, whose combination with London-listed Randgold created what was at the time the world’s biggest gold miner.

Hannam claims to have been cut out of the deal, which would “not have happened without me”, at the last minute. He told the court he had been “shocked” to see Klein’s firm named in the release that announced the merger but no mention of H&P.

Thornton said in his witness statement that he sensed Hannam was “relatively close” to Randgold founder Mark Bristow and was “therefore in favour of keeping a line of communication open with Mr Hannam to the extent that he could provide insight into what was going on at Randgold”.

However, he added: “I knew that I was never going to appoint Mr Hannam, because I favoured and had access to Michael Klein, with whom I had been close for many years.”

Klein “was always going to be Barrick’s adviser in connection with the Randgold merger so long as I was involved”, he added.

Thornton, a former Goldman Sachs banker, told the court that he had “quietly started looking for a merger partner” after his appointment as executive chair of Barrick in 2014. He raised the idea of a nil-premium merger with Bristow the same year.

Thornton said he viewed Hannam, a former special forces soldier who earned a reputation as the “king of mining M&A”, “favourably” as a “very distinct and colourful character”.

But he dismissed several of his claims. While it was the case that Hannam devised the code name British Rail for the deal, he said this was “of no substantive importance”.

“I did not need Ian Hannam’s help to do a merger,” Thornton added. Lawyers for Barrick have said there was “no written evidence” of an agreement with H&P for the payment of fees.

Hannam told the court that he had been in “regular dialogue” with Thornton about the merger. In 2018, Thornton told him that Klein would be Barrick’s financial adviser but that he and Bristow had agreed that Randgold would engage Hannam’s firm, an arrangement he had accepted.

Klein has been closely involved in several of the mining sector’s biggest deals, including the $90bn Glencore Xstrata merger in 2012. He also advised Glencore on its hostile bid for Canada’s Teck Resources last year. Teck rejected the takeover attempt, but sold a $6.9bn majority stake in its steelmaking coal business to Glencore.

Following the merger of Barrick and Randgold, Klein advised Barrick on an $18bn attempt to acquire gold miner Newmont, though that was ultimately unsuccessful.

The case continues.

The Information : The Electric: AI Mania Provides Welcome Demand for Struggling

The Electric: AI Mania Provides Welcome Demand for Struggling Next-Gen EV Battery Developers

The slowdown in sales of electric vehicles has led to smaller and postponed orders for next-generation batteries. But some next-gen battery makers are eyeing a lifeline from an unexpected source: artificial intelligence.

AI-enabled smartphones and data centers housing AI servers both need large, fast bursts of energy, precisely what silicon anodes deliver.

Group14 Technologies of Woodinville, Wash., has locked up one deal. Next month, Honor, China’s fourth-largest smartphone maker, will begin selling the $1,479 Magic 7 Pro, an AI-enabled phone equipped with Group14’s anode, in Europe. Among the phone’s features will be Yoyo Agent, a personal AI assistant that Honor says trains on its user’s habits and can fulfill a task such as ordering coffee or buying a plane ticket with a simple request rather than requiring several steps.

The phone also includes a souped-up camera that can detect deepfakes, and a slew of other AI-powered features that require lots of energy, especially given widespread user expectations of a daylong battery, something silicon anodes also provide. Hence the Magic 7 includes a Qualcomm Snapdragon, an especially energy-efficient chip designed for AI-enabled devices. But the chip apparently isn’t efficient enough to run all the AI features installed on the phone, so Honor also included Group14’s silicon anode, which holds more lithium than a conventional graphite anode and thus adds 20% more energy.

For a couple of years, Group14 had been expecting its anodes to be installed in some Porsche EVs this year. Now the anodes likely won’t go into the German carmaker’s EVs before 2026 or 2027, said Group14 CEO Rick Luebbe.

In the meantime, Group14 is earning revenue from Honor, though Luebbe declined to disclose how much. Porsche and Honor did not respond to emails.

Group14 is not alone: Gene Berdichevsky, CEO of Sila Nanotechnologies, which also makes next-gen silicon anodes, said he is in negotiations with the makers of AI-enabled phones. Any deal he is able to conclude would help tide his company over until later this decade, when EV prices are likely to be far lower, models much improved and sales higher. Speaking to analysts in October, Raj Talluri, CEO of Fremont, Calif.–based Enovix, a maker of silicon-based batteries, said AI-powered phones were “driving significant pull for our products and the transformatory leap in energy that we can provide.”

Most Western next-gen battery makers have been struggling for at least 18 months, mired in the “valley of death,” the period between the creation of a prototype and its commercialization at large scale, as we have reported. More recently, companies have started to fail: Last month, the best capitalized of the battery startups—Sweden’s Northvolt—declared bankruptcy, signaling just how dire conditions are.

The frenzy over AI is unlikely to be a long-term savior for U.S. and European battery startups—the revenue on sales of tiny phone anodes won’t be large enough—but it looks like perhaps a medium-term life preserver for some of them. “If you look at what the path is for the more advanced AI chips, they are just getting more and more power hungry,” Group14’s Luebbe said. “So the problem is not getting better, it’s getting worse with each step in technology.”

The Battery’s AI Play

The AI play in batteries isn’t only about smartphones. AI data centers housing thousands and often tens of thousands of graphics processing units consume a lot of power; so prodigious is their energy appetite that Amazon, Google and Microsoft are attempting to use nuclear plants to power future data centers.

Luebbe says next-gen lithium-ion batteries can help handle the load. Data center operators can draw power from the grid while they train their AI models. But when the models need updating, the data centers require massive one- or two-minute surges of power multiple times a day, said Venkat Viswanathan, an expert on energy storage and machine learning at the University of Michigan.

Molicel, a Taiwan-based battery maker highly respected in the West, is using Group14’s anode in the P50B, a battery designed for AI data centers. Its batteries—placed directly in racks containing the AI servers—can provide energy in fast bursts matching the one- to two-minute requirement, Luebbe said.

​​Last month, Robin Zeng, CEO of Contemporary Amperex Technology Ltd., the world’s largest lithium-ion battery maker, told Reuters that demand for batteries in data centers and other uses could be 10 times that for EVs. Zeng said CATL would develop battery systems for data centers for AI companies.

Qichao Hu, CEO of lithium-metal anode developer SES AI, said data center operators had asked him to develop electrolytes that could extend the life of data center batteries. In the round-the-clock use of batteries in data centers, especially if they are located in cold climates, lithium can gum up the anode—what is called lithium plating—and cause the battery to fail, Hu said.

SES scientists found that a variant of the solvent-in-salt electrolyte they were already using in their in-house lithium-metal battery hindered the plating to some degree; they have since been looking for other electrolytes using the company’s AI models. “The rise in demand for data center storage is really exciting,” Hu said.

But smartphones appear to be the largest AI play for the next-gen battery companies while they wait for EV sales to improve. In Enovix’s second-quarter call with analysts in July, CEO Talluri said smartphone company representatives had asked him whether Enovix could increase the energy capacity of its batteries beyond the usual 5 ampere-hours, allowing them to run longer, handle more programs and generally work with the AI features; they wondered if Enovix could make them 6 Ah but in the same size battery—about the dimensions of a playing card, taking up much of the space in a smartphone.

Three months later, Talluri said during Enovix’s third-quarter call in October that the same smartphone representatives had upped their request: Now they wanted 7 Ah in the same space.

Can you give them 7 Ah, and if so, when? one analyst asked Talluri. He did not respond to messages for this column.

“We are actually talking about next year,” Talluri replied to the analyst. “And I actually think the ask is going to keep going up if we can produce higher and higher energy capacity batteries in the same footprint. Because the applications we see now are just taking more and more power from the battery.”

The Information : Microsoft’s New Sales Pitch for AI: Spend Less Money on Humans

Microsoft’s New Sales Pitch for AI: Spend Less Money on Humans

Microsoft has a new pitch to persuade businesses to spend money on artificial intelligence–powered services: If you use them, you won’t need as many employees.

The potential of AI to replace human workers is an old idea, but one most companies have avoided bringing up explicitly, for fear of suffering reputational harm and political attacks. But as tech companies try to overcome customer uncertainty about the value of AI, they’re becoming more direct about that possible benefit.

The Takeaway
• CEOs are asking for assurances that buying AI will save their companies money
• Until now, AI sellers have shied away from promoting software as a labor replacement
• Google changed a customer quote to remove reference to savings on labor cost
CEOs and chief financial officers need assurances that adopting AI will lead to labor cost savings or reduce payments to external contractors, said Jared Spataro, chief marketing officer for Microsoft’s 365 Copilot software.

“What CFOs are rightly asking for is, ‘Show me what you took out of our budget by using AI,’” Spataro said. “We’re hearing that loud and clear.”

Microsoft is sharpening its pitch as its customers consider moving from experimenting with conversational AI that automates writing, coding, analytics and other tasks to actually using it at scale. Until now, many large companies have resisted expanding budgets for Microsoft’s Copilot AI until they have clear evidence of savings in other areas.

Other businesses are paying for such AI only if they can reduce spending on other enterprise or cloud software. Such expectations have prompted Microsoft to give a more candid sales pitch, Spataro said.

One promising group of customers for Microsoft is corporate marketers. Finastra, a British fintech company that generates $2 billion in revenue annually, recently used Microsoft’s 365 Copilot to handle marketing work it typically would hire external agencies to do, CMO Joerg Klueckmann said.

For a recent ad campaign, Finastra marketing staff interviewed 50 financial sector executives regarding what they found useful about its product and used Copilot to transcribe the interviews. Copilot then parsed 4,000 pages of transcribed interviews to generate ad copy featuring the executives’ testimony.

Klueckmann said that in the past, Finastra hired outside creative agencies and market research firms to create such campaigns, which would typically cost more than $60,000 and take several months. Instead, Finastra is paying for a handful of marketing employees to use Copilot to do the job, for a fee of $30 per employee per month. (It’s also paying for hundreds of other employees to have access to the Copilot tools for other purposes.)

Klueckmann says he doesn’t anticipate this type of technology would prompt him to reduce his more than 60-person marketing team, however.

“I think we’re going to produce more stuff with the people we have,” he said.

Office Automation

Despite the limitations of today’s conversational AI, which still makes mistakes, Microsoft can point to a variety of companies that are saving money from the technology. Some companies, for instance, have started using generative AI to replace roles like customer support or junior salespeople.

Spataro said corporate legal departments are using Microsoft’s 365 Copilot and other AI applications to avoid hiring outside lawyers, though he didn’t cite specific examples.

Broadcom, the semiconductor giant, has been scrutinizing the economics of its AI purchases as it automates IT help desk support for employees, said Stanley Toh, who oversees the department. By using software from AI startup Moveworks, which uses large language models from OpenAI and other providers, Broadcom has kept its IT support staff below 20 people over the past five years, even as the company’s head count grew from 10,000 to more than 50,000.

Toh’s team spends less than $2 million annually on AI—far less than the roughly $8 million annually it would be spending if its IT staff had grown in proportion to its overall staff.

“When I need to do contract renewal, this is the [return on investment] that I show to our executives to justify why we’re spending on this AI software,” he said. “The pure motivation is efficiency and cost avoidance.”

Until now, software executives have gone out of their way to allay concerns that AI would replace humans. In January, CEO Satya Nadella downplayed the idea, saying AI would change “the shape of these jobs” while creating more jobs by making tasks like software development easier for untrained workers.

Microsoft rivals such as Google and Amazon have similarly steered clear of saying customers can use their AI to reduce or avoid growing their workforces—even when one of their own customers says that’s what it’s doing.

Erasing ‘Labor Cost’

For instance, in August, Mirko Bibic, CEO of telecom firm Bell Canada, said during a conference call with analysts that Google AI tools had helped automate Bell’s customer service call center by using chatbots to handle some customer requests, as well as generating written responses that Bell’s human customer service agents could then send to customers.

As a result, Bell took “costs out of our business, which contributed to $20 million in labor cost savings,” Bibic said.

Notably, a Google blog post touting the same example amended Merko’s quote to remove the phrase “labor cost” so it just says “$20 million in savings.”

A Google spokesperson declined to comment. A Bell Canada spokesperson said some of the $20 million in labor cost savings came from the Google AI software, while some came from changes to how the company delivers fiber and changes to its billing and ordering system, but that person didn’t provide a breakdown.

Sellers of AI have long shied away from publicly acknowledging their technology could lead to fewer jobs because of the political heat that could bring.

Typically, “these companies won’t say there’s job replacement because it looks bad for their reputation and image, and they don’t want to spark an outcry,” said Lisette Espín Noboa, a researcher at the Complexity Science Hub, a Vienna-based tech policy think tank.

In its new pitch to customers, though, Microsoft is also touting its own savings on labor costs thanks to AI. The company says that using technology from OpenAI, it built internal tools that help salespeople automatically generate customer lists and perform cold outreach, and it separately built a tool to help customer support agents send automatically generated responses to customer questions, allowing them to handle more cases.

Microsoft executives say these tools are a reason the company has maintained its sales growth rate despite laying off 10,000 people last year, and the executives have been encouraging salespeople to use that example to entice customers, according to three current sales employees.

“We’ve been able to improve our throughput per [customer service] agent by 12% using Copilot. That’s real money. That means we don’t have to hire as many people,” Microsoft’s Spataro said.

That example might be overstating AI’s impact, however, because there’s also been a broader software spending recovery over the past year.