Un carton commercial. Six ans après son entrée en service, l’avion de transport militaire C-390 du brésilien Embraer, exposé au beau milieu de l’exposition statique du salon du Bourget, réalise une véritable performance sur le Vieux continent. Outre les 19 commandes du Brésil, l’appareil avait déjà été commandé à 22 exemplaires en Europe, répartis entre le Portugal, les Pays-Bas, la Suède, la République tchèque, la Slovaquie, l’Autriche et la Hongrie. La Lituanie a annoncé le 18 juin au Bourget qu'elle avait sélectionné l'appareil, pour une commande dont la taille exacte n'est pas encore connue. « Il y a un élan extraordinaire sur ce programme, assure Bosco Da Costa Junior, PDG de la filiale défense d’Embraer. Je suis confiant sur le fait que nous allons être le leader du marché. »
Spac revival puts spring in step of investors in New York
Blank cheque companies are enjoying a fresh moment in the sun as the traditional IPO market struggles
The Spac market was shrivelling when the industry’s annual conference rolled around in mid-2022, with a hastily arranged guest appearance by porn star Stormy Daniels failing to brighten the gloomy mood.
This year’s event at a golf club in an upscale suburb of New York was markedly more upbeat, attended by some of Wall Street’s most illustrious money managers, delegates from several of America’s largest law firms and dozens of banks, consultants and private investors.
Special purpose acquisition companies are enjoying another moment in the sun as the market for traditional initial public offerings continues to struggle, four years after ultra-low interest rates directed billions of dollars into the investment vehicles to fund flying taxi firms, commercial space ventures and a host of other speculative projects.
“There’s a spring in everyone’s step and so many more smiling faces,” said one Cayman Islands-based lawyer at the Spac Conference 2025 on Wednesday, hosted at Westchester Country Club in Rye, New York, and attended by a record number of guests, according to organisers.
Spacs have listed on US stock markets for more than 30 years, allowing investors to raise equity through an IPO for an empty shell that has around two years to identify a private company to merge with or acquire. Most that do, eventually trade far below their initial listing price, with retail traders often left holding the bag.
Once derided as “a poor man’s IPO,” Spacs became wildly popular during the bull run early in the Covid-19 crisis, with 600 deals in 2021 raising a record $163bn before the fervour died down as higher interest rates weighed on global stock markets. But there have been 56 Spac offerings so far this year raising over $10bn, roughly equal to the total for all of 2024.
The revival has come as uncertainty fuelled by Donald Trump’s tariff war has weighed on the traditional IPO market. At the same time, Trump’s return to the White House has unleashed a fresh wave of speculation that has energised markets for risky assets such as cryptocurrencies.
Walking the conference floors — and steering clear of an axe-throwing stall parked on the lawn — this week were Spac industry stalwarts including Loeb & Loeb co-chair Mitch Nussbaum and White & Case partner Joel Rubinstein, as well as Joaquin Dean, chief executive of US hip hop record label Ruff Ryders.
Serial Spac sponsors including former Citigroup executive Michael Klein, Los Angeles billionaire Alec Gores and banking entrepreneur Betsy Cohen were absent. Other guests previously put off by the Biden administration’s stricter regulatory approach and the reputational stigma that Spacs still carry were making their first conference appearance in years.
Sashaying between the Bandshell Terrazzo and the century-old Westchester Ballroom, and later over drinks and hand-rolled cigars, representatives of some of Wall Street’s biggest banks rubbed shoulders with the cast of smaller boutiques including BTIG, Cohen & Co and D. Boral Capital that in recent years has sprung up to replace them.
Chatter was dominated by rumours of a deal brewing involving a once prolific sponsor, the perks of listing in the Cayman Islands rather than Delaware, and reports that Goldman Sachs is set to return to the market following a three-year hiatus.
Yet, there appeared little sense of panic among the bank’s smaller Spac competitors. “The pie is big enough for everyone,” said one head of Spac investment banking at a New York-based firm.
More of the bigger players “will come back towards the end of the year when they can no longer ignore the fees,” said another Spac banker, “especially if and when you see private equity firms taking their portfolio companies and auctioning them off”.
Panel discussions underscored what attendees said was a fervent industry desire to move on from a series of high-profile flops four years ago. Topics included “renewed focus on quality deals and due diligence”, and a “shift to prioritising Spac targets in desirable industries with solid revenue”.
And one industry is driving the Spac resurgence more than any other, according to the Cayman Islands-based lawyer. “Right now it’s all crypto,” he said, nodding to several recent Spac deals involving companies established to mimic the tactics of Michael Saylor’s Strategy, the world’s biggest corporate holder of bitcoin.
“The Spac market is in a good place,” said one banker overlooking Westchester’s verdant 18-hole course as the conference drew to a close.
“In 2021 it was completely oversaturated. [Now] there’s not so much supply that we’re going to get ourselves into trouble again.”
Novo hunts for ‘maximum potential’ from obesity drug CagriSema
Danish group lost €90bn in market capitalisation in December after preliminary results showed it missed its target
Novo Nordisk is searching for the “maximum potential weight loss” that can be achieved from its potential drug CagriSema, as it tries to convince disappointed investors that the medicine has a bright future.
The Danish group lost some €90bn in market capitalisation in December after preliminary trial results showed CagriSema had missed its target of 25 per cent average weight loss, with only 40 per cent of participants hitting that goal.
Instead, patients achieved an average weight loss of 22.7 per cent, making investors worry it could not outcompete the current blockbuster Zepbound made by US rival Eli Lilly.
Martin Lange, executive vice-president at Novo Nordisk, said the company had extended one trial of CagriSema and started another longer trial to discover what would happen if patients took it for more than 68 weeks.
He added that more detailed results from the previous CagriSema trial, presented at the American Diabetes Association conference on Sunday, showed it offered more weight loss than Novo Nordisk’s existing product Wegovy with a similar level of side effects.
“What people haven’t seen in detail yet is the side effect profile, as in, there will be a lot of comfort in that substantial weight loss potential . . . with a comparable safety and tolerability profile,” he said.
The more detailed data also shows the drug appeared to have an impact on patients’ cardiovascular health. Novo is investigating this effect in a separate trial.
The previous disappointing CagriSema data is one factor that has pushed Novo Nordisk’s share price down more than 50 per cent in the past year. Investors also worry it is losing market share to Lilly.
The Danish drugmaker’s board ousted chief executive Lars Fruergaard Jørgensen last month in response.
Analysts had criticised Novo Nordisk for setting a goal of 25 per cent weight loss for the CagriSema trial and for not explaining clearly to the market that trial participants were not on a fixed dose, with some holding back from taking the highest amount.
Lange said the new data showed that people who lost more weight were often those who changed their dose. “Their desire for weight loss is not always a very, very fast and dramatic weight loss. That can be unhelpful.”
On Saturday, Novo Nordisk also announced results of two studies of amycretin, another obesity drug that is at an earlier stage in trials. One found that an injectable version of the drug caused average weight loss of 24 per cent, higher than the drugs on the market at the moment.
Another found that patients taking it as a pill lost over 13 per cent of their body weight on average, but the company suggested this could be higher if the drug was taken for longer.
British Airways and Singapore Airlines cancel Dubai flights after US bombs Iran
More than 150 carriers have diverted or suspended flights
British Airways and Singapore Airlines have cancelled flights to Dubai after the US struck three nuclear sites in Iran, adding to widespread recent disruption to air travel as carriers avoid conflict zones in the Middle East.
More than 150 carriers including Air France-KLM, American Airlines and Japan Airlines had already diverted or suspended flights after airspace over Israel, Iraq and Jordan was closed due to the war between Israel and Iran.
Donald Trump’s decision to strike Iran on Saturday — which comes just over a week after Israel launched missiles at Tehran — has escalated the conflict in the Middle East and brings the risk of Iranian retaliation against the US.
For airlines, analysts have said the latest disruption adds to challenges for European carriers in particular, as they were already avoiding Russian airspace for flights to Asia because of the war between Russia and Ukraine.
One British Airways flight that left London Heathrow for Dubai at 9:53pm on Saturday was diverted and landed in Zurich after nine hours, according to data from Flightradar24, the air traffic tracking website.
Flights to Doha were also cancelled on Saturday, while all BA flights to Dubai and Doha were suspended on Sunday. The UK carrier had already paused flights to Bahrain until June 30.
“As a result of recent events, we have adjusted our flight schedule to ensure the safety of our customers and crew,” BA said.
Singapore Airlines said it cancelled two flights between Singapore and Dubai on Sunday following “a security assessment of the geopolitical situation in the Middle East”.
There have been more than 3,000 flight cancellations a day in the Middle East since the Israel-Iran war broke out, according to Flightradar24. Its data showed airspace broadly clear over Iran, Iraq and Syria, with flights instead being rerouted across Saudi Arabia and Egypt.
Just days ahead of the strikes, American Airlines, United Airlines and Finnair had all cancelled flights to either Doha or Dubai.
Earlier on Sunday, Israel closed its airspace but local carrier Arkia said it planned to resume rescue flights to bring back Israelis stranded abroad once its airspace reopened at 2pm, according to the Times of Israel.
Flightradar24 said that commercial air traffic in the Middle East had not shown further signs of disruption after the US bombings.
“Following US attacks on Iranian nuclear facilities, commercial traffic in the region is operating as it has since new airspace restrictions were put into place last week,” it said on social media.
Le C-390, l’avion militaire brésilien qui donne des maux de tête à l’A400M d’Airbus
Alors que l’A400M d’Airbus est à la peine à l’export et lutte pour sa survie, l’avion de transport militaire C-390 du brésilien Embraer réalise une véritable razzia en Europe. Il a notamment séduit le Portugal, la Suède, les Pays-Bas, la Slovaquie, la République tchèque, la Hongrie, la Lituanie et l’Autriche.
Trois fois moins de commandes export pour l’A400M
Cette réussite (42 avions vendus en tout, dont 25 à l’export) tranche avec les performances poussives de l’A400M d’Airbus. Certes, l’avion européen a vu son avenir s’éclaircir au salon du Bourget, la France et l’Espagne acceptant d’avancer des livraisons prévues (quatre pour la France, trois pour l’Espagne). Ces livraisons anticipées permettront de maintenir jusqu’à 2028 la cadence de 8 avions produits par an, le seuil minimal nécessaire, selon Airbus Defence & Space, pour maintenir l’usine d’assemblage de Séville. Mais l’A400M peine à séduire des clients à l’export.
Il n’a pour l’instant obtenu que 4 commandes ces dernières années, deux au Kazakhstan et deux en Indonésie. La Malaisie avait acheté quatre avions dans la première phase du programme, ce qui porte le total au chiffre – assez famélique – de 8 avions vendus à l’export. En 2010, le patron d’Airbus Military Domingo Urena Raso estimait pourtant le potentiel export de l’appareil… à 500 exemplaires.
« Ce n’est pas le même segment de marché »
Embraer, lui, ne s’est jamais fixé d’objectifs faramineux. Le C-390 avait même été accueilli avec une certaine ironie, en Europe et aux Etats-Unis, lors de son premier vol en 2015. Mais l’appétit vient en mangeant. « Le C-390 gagne du terrain, commande après commande », se réjouit Francisco Gomes Neto, PDG d’Embraer.
L'avion bésilien est-il en train de prendre des parts de marché à l’A400M ? Les deux appareils sont sur des segments bien distincts, assurent les soutiens du turbopropulseur européen. « Ce n’est pas le même segment de marché : le C390 est de taille plus modeste, estimait Emmanuel Chiva, délégué général pour l’armement, le 15 avril dans Challenges. L’A400M est plus grand, avec un éventail de missions plus large, et donc aussi plus cher. » De fait, le C-390 affiche 26 tonnes de charge utile, contre 37 tonnes pour l’A400M, un chiffre appelé à passer rapidement à 40 tonnes. L’avion européen, à quatre hélices, vole plus longtemps et plus loin que l’appareil brésilien, qui intègre deux réacteurs. Il affiche aussi des capacités (emport largage de parachutistes, usage de terrains sommaires, survol à basse altitude…) plus poussées.
Les deux appareils ne sont pas incomparables pour autant. L’A400M remplace ainsi, dans l’armée de l’air, des Transall et C-130 bien plus petits, ce qui montre que les marchés sont plus imbriqués qu’on pourrait le croire. A cause des retards de l’A400M, la France avait d’ailleurs commandé, en 2016, des C130J américains, des avions de la taille du C-390.
Airbus vise des commandes aux Emirats et en Pologne
Chez Airbus, on assure toujours croire dur comme fer au potentiel de l’appareil. Le patron des avions militaires d’Airbus, Jean-Brice Dumont, évoquait récemment dans La Tribune le chiffre de 30 commandes supplémentaires. Le 17 juin, il se montrait encore confiant, soulignant que le Rafale a aussi connu un démarrage poussif avant d’exploser à l’export. Les prochaines campagnes commerciales s’annoncent donc décisives. L’A400M a notamment des touches sérieuses aux Emirats arabes unis et en Pologne, deux prospects très solides qui permettraient de regarnir le carnet de commandes. L’Arabie saoudite est aussi citée comme une cible prioritaire, mais Riyad regarde aussi attentivement le C-390. Les deux avions ont également répondu à une demande d’information de l’Inde, ce qui prouve, encore une fois, qu’ils sont régulièrement en concurrence directe.
Même la France a, un temps, envisagé l’achat d’une douzaine de C-390 brésiliens pour l’armée de l’air. C’était en 2009, quand Paris espérait encore placer 36 Rafale à Brasilia, et était prêt à passer des commandes de compensation. Le projet avait fait long feu, le Brésil choisissant finalement le Gripen du suédois Saab.
Armées et ESA : double coup de boost pour l’avion spatial Vortex de Dassault
Le ministère des Armées et l’Agence spatiale européenne ont signé coup sur coup deux lettres de soutien au projet d’avion spatial Vortex de Dassault, présenté au salon du Bourget. Un prototype pourrait voler dès 2028, avant une entrée en service en 2031, assure le groupe… à condition de trouver les financements.
Vortex va-t-il décoller plus vite qu’escompté ? Cinq jours après la présentation de l’avion spatial de Dassault Aviation au salon du Bourget, le ministère des Armées et l’Agence spatiale européenne (ESA) ont donné un coup de boost indéniable au projet, en signant deux lettres de soutien ce vendredi 20 juin, en marge de la visite d’Emmanuel Macron. Côté armées, le document est une « convention de soutien » au développement d’un premier démonstrateur, un engin de 4 m de long et 2,5 m d’envergure que Dassault assure pouvoir faire voler dès 2028, qui permettra de « valider les performances critiques liées à la configuration d’un avion spatial, en particulier la maîtrise du vol hypersonique, les technologies avancées de protection thermique et le contrôle du vol ».
L’ESA a quant à elle signé une lettre d’intention pour soutenir le projet, dans le cadre de sa stratégie Explore2040 dédiée à l’exploration spatiale. « Avec Vortex, Dassault contribue à renforcer les capacités européennes et à garantir un accès souverain à l’espace dans un secteur spatial concurrentiel et en forte croissance. Nous sommes impatients de combiner nos expertises et travailler main dans la main pour une Europe spatiale plus forte », estime Josef Aschbacher, directeur général de l’ESA, cité dans un communiqué.
Développer Vortex, une urgence pour l’Europe
En quoi consiste exactement Vortex ? L’idée est simple : Dassault propose de doter l’Europe d’un avion, ou plutôt d’une navette spatiale, capable d’atteindre l’orbite pour des missions de surveillance spatiale, de transport de fret et d’astronautes, mais aussi d’action dans l’espace. Cette navette, qui rappelle un peu le projet avorté de navette européenne Hermès, serait mise en orbite par une fusée, et retournerait sur Terre en atterrissant comme un avion.
L’éventail de missions possibles est large : desserte de stations spatiales, retrait de débris spatiaux, mise en orbite de petits satellites. D’autres missions, non évoquées par Dassault, sont envisageables côté militaire : neutralisation de satellites espions (aveuglement, voire désorbitation), interceptions électromagnétiques, protection des satellites stratégiques…
Le développement d’une telle capacité est une urgence, estime Dassault. « On voit bien actuellement que le champ de bataille est en train de se porter dans l’espace, assurait Éric Trappier le 11 juin dans une interview à Challenges. Certaines puissances pourraient militariser l’espace avec des capacités défensives mais aussi offensives.» Les Etats-Unis disposent déjà d’une navette de ce type, le X-37B de Boeing, qui a mené à bien, depuis 2010, sept missions en orbite, dont la dernière de 14 mois jusqu’en mars 2025, sans qu’on ne sache exactement les tâches effectuées. La Chine s’est aussi invitée au club en 2020, avec un avion spatial expérimental qui a effectué trois missions en orbite, dont la dernière a atterri en septembre 2024.
Une navette de 15 tonnes en 2031
Pour développer son appareil made in Europe, Dassault propose une approche progressive. Un premier démonstrateur de 4 m de long et 2,5 m d’envergure, Vortex D, pourrait être lancé dès 2028, en suborbital (vol qui n’atteint pas l’orbite), puis en orbite. Ce prototype, d’un poids d’une tonne environ, pourrait atteindre 120 km d’altitude et la vitesse de 15.000km/h. Vortex D serait suivi d’un engin plus grand, Vortex S, probablement autour de 5 tonnes et 8 m de long.
Une troisième version d’une quinzaine de tonnes et de 12 m de long, Vortex C (pour cargo), serait la première navette vraiment opérationnelle en orbite. Elle pourrait être lancée en 2031. Une éventuelle version habitée, Vortex M, encore plus grosse, pourrait être développée dans la foulée. « Nous y allons par étapes, avec un démonstrateur que nous testerons en suborbital, puis en orbital, puis avec un équipage, expliquait Éric Trappier dans Le Figaro le 16 juin. Nous aurons besoin d’un petit lanceur très flexible pour le lancer. »
Intérêt en France, mais…
Ce petit lanceur, qui correspond assez bien au profil du lanceur Maia de MaiaSpace, sera suffisant pour mettre en orbite le premier démonstrateur. Mais pour lancer la version définitive de 15 tonnes, un lanceur lourd, comme Ariane 6, serait nécessaire.
Dassault, plus connu pour ses compétences en avions de combat et en jets d’affaires, n’a pourtant rien d’un néophyte du spatial. « Qui contrôle l’espace contrôle ce qu’il y a en dessous », assurait déjà Éric Trappier en 2018. Dassault était pilote du projet de navette européenne Hermès, qui devait embarquer sur Ariane 5 mais a été stoppé en 1992. Le groupe français avait aussi participé au développement du prototype de navette spatiale X-38 de la Nasa, abandonné en 2002 du fait de coupes budgétaires, avant de désigner le démonstrateur européen IXV, lancé en 2015.
L’Europe va-t-elle accepter de financer un tel projet ? « Les Américains sont sur ce segment, les Chinois aussi, l’ESA (Agence spatiale européenne) est intéressée, soulignait Éric Trappier le 11 juin. A la France et l’Europe de dire si elles veulent y être. » Les signatures de l’ESA et du ministère des Armées sont un signal positif, qui montre qu’un tel engin, par essence dual (civil et militaire), figure bien sur la feuille de route de la France et de l’Europe.
Mais le plus dur commence maintenant. Au-delà des lettres d’intention, un tel projet va nécessiter des centaines de millions d’euros, voire des milliards, alors même que l’enveloppe financière du ministère des Armées et de l’ESA peine déjà à financer tous les projets actés. Les militaires eux-mêmes ne semblent pas mettre le projet au niveau le plus élevé de leurs priorités. « Un avion spatial ? Oui ça nous intéresse, c’est probablement le futur, assurait le général Philippe Adam, Commandant de l’espace (armée de l’air), interrogé au Bourget par Challenges le 19 juin. Mais la question est : quel est l’intérêt immédiat ? A court terme, nous n’avons pas forcément besoin d’un design aussi compliqué. Nous avons des priorités plus urgentes. Mais il ne faut pas insulter l’avenir : des études commencent, nous allons y participer. »
Vers un programme en coopération ?
Le vrai juge de paix sera la capacité de transformer Vortex en un vrai programme de coopération européenne. Pour cela, il devra être soutenu par plusieurs Etats membres de l’ESA. L’Italie pourrait être intéressée : elle a été en première ligne sur les projets de démonstrateur IXV et du programme de petite navette Space Rider, un engin expérimental de l’ESA, développé par Thales Alenia Space, qui doit voler en 2027. Elle dispose d’un outil industriel de premier plan sur le sujet de l’exploration spatiale, avec l’usine Thales Alenia Space de Turin, qui assemble des éléments de cargos spatiaux (Cygnus) mais aussi de stations spatiales.
Les autres grands pays contributeurs de l’ESA (France et Allemagne) n’ont, jusqu’à présent, pas fait preuve d’un enthousiasme similaire sur le sujet. Le nouveau contexte géopolitique peut-il faire bouger les lignes ? La prochaine conférence ministérielle de l’ESA, en novembre à Brême, permettra d’y voir plus clair.
Satellite Imagery Flags "Unusual Activity" At Iran's Fordow Nuclear Site Days Before U.S. Strike
In an overnight address to the nation, President Trump announced that U.S. stealth bombers had "completely and totally obliterated" Iran's three primary nuclear facilities: Fordow, Natanz, and Esfahan. He issued a direct warning to Tehran, stating that unless the regime agrees to a peace deal with Israel, additional U.S. military action remains on the table. The attack signals Trump's dramatic geopolitical u-turn after having long advocated for keeping the U.S. out of Middle Eastern wars.
"This cannot continue. There will be either peace or there will be tragedy for Iran, far greater than we have witnessed over the last eight days," Trump told the American people in a three-minute speech from the White House late Saturday night.
"Remember, there are many targets left," the president said, adding, "Tonight's was the most difficult of them all, by far, and perhaps the most lethal. But if peace does not come quickly, we will go after those other targets with precision, speed and skill."
Before the deployment of six U.S. Air Force B-2 stealth bombers—each armed with a 30,000-pound GBU-57A/B Massive Ordnance Penetrator—a satellite intelligence report from Maxar Technologies identified "unusual" activity near the entrance of Iran's Fordow uranium enrichment facility.
The observed movement on Thursday and Friday showed "unusual truck and vehicular activity" near the entrance of the underground Fordow complex south of Tehran. This may indicate foreknowledge or heightened alert status at Iran's high-value nuclear sites.
Newsweek cited Maxar's report and provided more color on the unusual movements:
Pictures captured on Thursday and Friday showed "unusual truck and vehicular activity" close to the entrance of the underground Fordow complex south of Tehran, satellite imagery giant Maxar said late on Saturday U.S. time.A total of 16 cargo trucks were spotted on the access road leading up to the Fordow tunnel entrance on Thursday, but most of the trucks had relocated to one kilometer (0.6 miles) northwest of the access road by the following day, Maxar said.New trucks and multiple bulldozers had appeared close to the main entrance by Friday, with one truck very close to the main tunnel entrance, the satellite imagery provider said.Satellite imagery captured by Maxar on Thursday (days before the U.S. bombing raid) shows cargo trucks near the underground entrance of the Fordow fuel enrichment facility.
Maxar satellite imagery of Fordo fuel enrichment facility.
Maxar satellite imagery of Fordo fuel enrichment facility.
In a separate report, post-bombing, X users cite satellite imagery from UK-based Think Tank Open Source Center that shows what appears to be "visible damage to Fordow."
"Several entry points can be seen, indicating the explosives penetrated deep towards the facility. The entry points are on the ridgelines, which are directly above the centrifuge halls," breaking conflict news account Megatron wrote on X.
NEW:— Megatron (@Megatron_ron) June 22, 2025
🇺🇸🇮🇷 First satellite imagery shows visible damage to Fordow.
Several entry points can be seen, indicating the explosives penetrated deep towards the facility. The entry points are on the ridgelines, which are directly above the centrifuge halls.
Imagery by UK-based… pic.twitter.com/AKYR5LifeD
President Trump also issued a warning overnight, stating that if Tehran refuses to negotiate a peace deal, U.S. bombers and fighter aircraft will hit other targets. This scenario aligns with the escalation pathway we outlined in our October 2024 geopolitical report to readers.
And let's not forget Hollywood has pre-programmed the American people for this...
It’s the NBA’s Biggest Game in Years—and Absolutely No One Saw It Coming
The Oklahoma City Thunder and Indiana Pacers will play one momentous game with a championship at stake. Here are the twists and turns that led to the NBA Finals Game 7.
Key Points
The Thunder and Pacers will face off in Game 7 of the NBA Finals, the first winner-take-all contest in nearly a decade.
A 2019 trade transformed Oklahoma City, with Shai Gilgeous-Alexander becoming MVP and a draft pick turning into All-Star Jalen Williams.
Historically, home teams have an advantage in Game 7s, which tend to be low-scoring, potentially favoring the Thunder’s top defense.
Oklahoma City
Games like this don’t come along often.
The eight-month marathon that is the NBA season will come down to one 48-minute showdown when the Oklahoma City Thunder square off against the Indiana Pacers on Sunday night in Game 7 of the NBA Finals.
It’s the first winner-take-all contest in nearly a decade—and one of the rarest occurrences in all of sports.
There have been 24 pitchers who have thrown a perfect game in Major League Baseball. But this is just the 20th NBA Finals Game 7 in the history of the NBA.
“Nothing that’s happened before matters, and nothing that’s going to happen after matters,” Pacers point guard Tyrese Haliburton said. “It’s all about that one game.”
What makes Sunday’s game even more of an anomaly is that in the context of other NBA Finals Game 7s, this one is historically unlikely. The Thunder spent the season loudly announcing themselves as championship favorites, rolling to the league’s best record. The Pacers, on the other hand, opened the playoffs with oddsmakers giving them a 1% chance of winning the title.
Here’s how two teams made their way to the biggest basketball game since 2016—and the keys to one of them, finally, lifting the trophy.
The Trade That Transformed Oklahoma City
This side of the Yankees trading for Babe Ruth, you’re unlikely to find a single swap that has meant as much to a team as the one Thunder general manager Sam Presti pulled off in 2019. At the time, Oklahoma City was a good—but decidedly not great—club that had just lost in the first round of the playoffs.
So when the Los Angeles Clippers came calling after the Thunder’s All-Star forward Paul George, Presti demanded a haul that would help the organization retool for the future. The Clippers sent the Thunder a whopping five future first-round picks—and threw in a young rookie with a name so long it barely fit on the back of his jersey.
Five years later, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander has become the NBA’s MVP and leading scorer. And one of the draft picks they got from the Clippers turned into Jalen Williams, an All-Star forward who exploded for 40 points in a Game 5 win.
By contrast, George’s scoring dipped to its lowest average in a decade this year, and he missed the season’s last month with injuries. The two guys Oklahoma got for him have accounted for half of the Thunder’s points in the NBA Finals.
The Pacers Never Say Die
What’s more difficult than stopping the Pacers in the closing seconds of a playoff game? Figuring out which of their outrageous postseason comebacks is the most mind-blowing.
Maybe you’re a fan of their early stuff, when they came back from a 7-point deficit in the last 35 seconds of overtime to beat the Milwaukee Bucks in Round 1. Maybe you prefer Haliburton’s buzzer-beater against the Knicks—which bounced so high off the rim it nearly knocked the dust off New York’s championship banners—that led to an overtime comeback in the conference finals.
More Haliburton last-second heroics set the NBA Finals on their topsy-turvy course. In Game 1, the Pacers trailed by 15 points in the fourth quarter before charging on yet another comeback sealed with—what else?—a Haliburton jump shot with 0.3 seconds left on the clock.
“This group never gives up,” Haliburton said. “We never believe that the game is over until it hits zero. That’s just the God’s-honest truth.”
Data and Defense
The Pacers make it tempting to think that no piece of data matters in playoff basketball—that all that counts is what happens when Indiana starts on another of its mind-blowing comebacks. But for hoops rationalists, there’s some Game 7 precedent to consider.
Home teams have gone 15-4 in Game 7s. And these winner-take-all games tend to be low-scoring affairs, historically, as teams play cautious basketball hoping to avoid crucial errors. Teams have scored an average of 98.8 points per game in the NBA Finals this century. In the four Game 7s, that drops to just 85.3.
A rock fight in Oklahoma City would figure to disadvantage the free-flowing Pacers and favor the Thunder, who boasted basketball’s top defense all season.
So the only question is whether the Pacers can make common sense fly out the window one more time, in the last game of the season.
What Israel’s Soaring Markets Are Saying About the Iran War
Israel’s stocks and currency are signaling confidence in the country’s position
Iranian ballistic missiles are raining down on Tel Aviv and Haifa. Israel’s main airport is shut. Much of the workforce is moving in and out of bomb shelters. For most countries, such a wartime scenario would send investors fleeing and markets tanking.
Yet the opposite is happening. Israeli markets are buoyant, outperforming the world. Israeli stocks, which trade Sunday through Thursday, have been posting solid gains. The TA-125 Index, also known as the Tel Aviv 125 Index, rose for five straight sessions as of the end of last week, even as global markets tread cautiously amid the specter of a prolonged Middle East war. It rallied again on Sunday after the U.S. strikes on Iran’s nuclear facilities.
What is going on?
Partly this can be explained by the familiarity of local investors with war. But markets are also signaling renewed confidence in Israel’s position and strategy—and Donald Trump’s decision to strike Iran’s nuclear sites has only strengthened that perception.
Much of Israel’s capital market is domestically held. After years of periodic conflict, local investors have learned that war rarely knocks the economy off course for long. For them, selloffs are often buying opportunities. Markets have tended to rebound quickly after recent conflicts, with initial drops followed by sustained recoveries.
Indeed, despite mass mobilization of reservists and fighting on several fronts, Israel’s economy has remained remarkably resilient since the Gaza war began nearly two years ago. The economy is still growing, and unemployment remains near multidecade lows of around 3%—though that figure partly reflects a recent shock to the labor supply after the departure of foreign workers and the revocation of work permits for many Palestinians. The budget deficit has widened from prewar levels, but overall the economy is holding up, says Rafael Gozlan, chief economist at IBI Investment House in Tel Aviv.
An investor who bought Israeli stocks on the eve of Oct. 7, 2023 would have fared better than one who picked the U.S. market. Between the surprise Hamas attacks that prompted the start of the Gaza war nearly two years ago and Israel’s strike on Iran on June 12, the TA-125’s total return including dividends was about 46%, compared with a 40% gain for the S&P 500, according to FactSet data.
But the latest rally suggests something more is afoot. Investors aren’t just buying the dip. The TA-125 is up about 8% since the Israel-Iran war began, compared with a small decline for the S&P 500. And it isn’t just equities: The shekel has strengthened against both the dollar and the euro, while government bonds are holding steady.
It appears investors are betting that Israel’s strikes on Iran will deal a crippling, if not decisive, blow to the regional axis linking Tehran to Hezbollah and its other proxies. A decision by the U.S. to strike three of its nuclear sites late Saturday, joining Israel’s attacks, risks further regional escalation. On Sunday, Iran fired a new barrage of missiles at Israel, with injuries and damage reported in major cities like Tel Aviv. Still, the TA-125 gained over 1%.
That might seem like a bold call. But Israel’s security landscape has shifted dramatically over the past 20 months. Before Oct. 7, it faced threats on several fronts: Hamas in Gaza, Hezbollah’s vast missile stockpile in Lebanon, potential for unrest in the West Bank, and Iranian use of Syria as a land corridor. Today, Hamas has been weakened, Hezbollah has been set back, the Assad regime has been replaced by an Iranian adversary, and Iran’s military and nuclear infrastructure has been badly damaged by surprise Israeli airstrikes and intelligence operations.
Investor optimism, Gozlan says, initially surged after Israel caught Hezbollah off guard in a surprise operation that culminated with the killing of its leader, Hassan Nasrallah, last year—and again after the recent strike on Iran. In short, Israel’s military actions have reduced what investors call its risk premium, or the amount that geopolitical risks are priced into its assets. That could pave the way for more foreign investment once the dust settles, Gozlan says.
Of course, it may prove too early to assess the extent of Israel’s achievements. What was initially expected to last one or two weeks might now stretch longer. On Friday, the Israeli military’s chief of staff, Eyal Zamir, warned that “difficult days still lie ahead” and that Israel must be prepared for a “prolonged campaign.”
And there is no clear endgame. Iran’s regime could survive—and if it does, it could decide to quietly rebuild its nuclear program or revive its support of proxy groups in the region. Perhaps even more consequential for Israel’s society and economy, the unresolved Palestinian conflict remains and is a source of much international opprobrium.
Experts will continue to debate the merits and consequences of the Israel-Iran war. But for now, Israeli markets are delivering a clear verdict: that Israel’s security posture is on the brink of lasting improvement.
Ordinary Investors Are Souring on Big Tech
Some worry about stretched valuations after a big run-up
Key Points
- Investors are re-evaluating their holdings in tech stocks, especially the ‘Magnificent Seven,’ after April’s market rebound.
- Some investors are shifting toward international stocks, smaller companies, utilities and consumer staples.
- Despite some profit-taking, big tech stocks remain popular, with some investors favoring AI-related companies.
Patricia Andrews plugged tens of thousands of dollars into two tech-focused mutual funds during April’s market turmoil. Now that those shares have rebounded, she’s unloading most of them.
“I feel like they’re probably running out of steam,” said the 60-year-old entrepreneur based in Cedarville, Calif. She plans to invest the profits in a different pair of funds focused on international companies. “Knowing that it’s still a really volatile market, it just makes me say, ‘I’ve made enough on these.’”
Andrews is just one of the ordinary investors reconsidering how much money to hold in the market’s longtime stars, particularly the so-called Magnificent Seven group of tech behemoths—Alphabet, Amazon.com, Apple, Meta, Microsoft, Nvidia and Tesla.
When President Trump’s tariff announcement sent major U.S. stock indexes tumbling earlier this year, the Magnificent Seven helped lead the way down. In the days that followed, individual investors rushed to buy shares at a discount, a multibillion-dollar dip-buying spree that powered the speedy recovery to near all-time highs.
While few are throwing in the towel, analysts say investors are moving some money into newer trades. Some are searching for new opportunities in international stocks or shares of smaller companies. Some have moved to the relative stability of utilities, or companies making consumer staples. Some are just wary that the Magnificent Seven’s popularity has stretched valuations.
“They’ve broadened their focus,” said Steve Sosnick, the chief strategist at Interactive Brokers. “Having rallied so far so fast, people are not quite as eager to chase it.”
Investors will get new insight into the economic impact of the Trump administration tariff policies that spurred the April selloff this coming week, with fresh figures due on consumer confidence, first-quarter GDP and the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge. The economic effects of the trade war have been muted thus far, and analysts say it might take until second-quarter earnings reports roll out later this summer to get a better sense of how trade shifts have affected the largest U.S. companies.
Individual investors have cut back on purchases of the Magnificent Seven and other tech giants in recent weeks, according to Vanda Research. Retail buying has fallen as a percentage of total inflows to about 23% in mid-June from about 41% at the start of April’s market turmoil.
Investors more broadly are funneling smaller sums into the tech sector this year than other parts of the market. A net $7.1 billion has flowed into tech-focused exchange-traded funds in 2025 so far, according to Morningstar Direct, which includes both retail and institutional flows. Meanwhile, funds that attempt to buy stocks at a discount saw an inflow of roughly $25 billion, while international ETFs logged a net inflow of nearly $70 billion.
After scooping up shares of Tesla and Nvidia during the selloff this spring, Tom Griffin has pivoted to purchases of UnitedHealth and Wells Fargo, which he loaded up on after the bank announced it would no longer be required to operate under a regulator-imposed asset cap.
The Texas-based cattle rancher, 42, said he isn’t so much turning away from tech as he is searching for shares of large, reliable companies at a decent price. That means shares of the large-cap tech stocks looked much more tempting a couple months ago than they do now.
“When the whole market dips, that’s when you buy the important huge companies,” he said.
Few are giving up on big tech stocks. Microsoft recently hit fresh highs. Nvidia, Tesla and Apple were still some of the most-traded tickers on the Interactive Brokers platform last week. And some of the newly popular trades reflect similar bets on the growth of artificial intelligence, with individual investors favoring related companies such as software company Palantir and nuclear-energy startup Oklo.
But Paul Taylor for months has been shrinking his holdings of the Magnificent Seven, which once made up nearly half of his investments. The Buffalo, N.Y., resident didn’t buy any more shares during the stock slide. Instead, he picked up shares of Berkshire Hathaway, retailers including Walmart and even, for the first time, a gold ETF.
“It was too much of a good thing,” the 70-year-old said of the tech shares, though he added he would never completely eliminate the Magnificent Seven stocks from his portfolio. “I just don’t think they warrant what they’re priced at right now.”