>>> US Gapping up

Gapping up
In reaction to earnings/guidance:
  • NUS +23.1%, ROKU +15.7%, ABNB +14.2%, FROG +12%, PCOR +10.1%, ELME +8.5%, GT +5.9%, DKNG +5.3%, UDMY +4.9%, HL +3.5%, POR +3.2%, DXCM +2.9%, PDM +2.5%, WYNN +1.9%, TRP +1.9%, TSLX +1.6%, AMCX +1.6%, CAE +1.5%, FTS +1.5%, AL +1.4%, YELP +1.3%,
Other news:
  • KAI +8.4% (to join S&P SmallCap 600)
  • GME +8.2% (aiming to invest in bitcoin, according to CNBC)
  • EAF +5.5% (CEO and CFO each bought 50K shares)
  • ZK +4.5% (closes strategic integrated transactions)
  • KRT +4.2% (increases dividend)
  • FLUT +3.4% (in sympathy with strong
  • DKNG earnings)
  • NUKK +2.7% (Expands Its Focus on the Defense Sector, Strengthens Capital Structure as it takes Initial Steps Toward Star 26 Acquisition)
  • W +2.5% (raises quarterly dividend by 5%)
  • THTX +1.8% (resumes EGRIFTA SV distribution)
  • TNC +1.7% (authorizes new 2 mln share repurchase program)
  • BIRK +1% (stock offering)
  • BKNG +1% (in sympathy with strong ABNB earnings)
  • TRIP +1% (in sympathy with strong ABNB earnings)
  • RLI +0.9% (increases dividend)
  • VALE +0.8% (in advanced talks to sell Brazil renewable assets, according to Reuters)
Analyst comments:
  • WMG +1.6% (upgraded to Buy from Neutral at Citigroup)
  • UPST +0.5% (upgraded to Equal-Weight from Underweight at Morgan Stanley)

>>> US Research Calls I

Research Calls I
  • Upgrades:
    • Airbnb (ABNB) upgraded to Outperform from Neutral at Robert W. Baird; tgt raised to $175
    • Airbnb (ABNB) upgraded to Neutral from Sell at Goldman; tgt raised to $153
    • Airbnb (ABNB) upgraded to Hold from Sell at Gordon Haskett; tgt $143
    • Bridgeline Digital (BLIN) upgraded to Buy from Hold at WestPark Capital
    • Brixmor Property (BRX) upgraded to Buy from Hold at Jefferies; tgt raised to $33
    • Carrier Global (CARR) upgraded to Outperform from Neutral at Mizuho; tgt $78
    • Floor & Decor (FND) upgraded to Outperform from Market Perform at Telsey Advisory Group; tgt raised to $115
    • Mid-America Aptmt (MAA) upgraded to Sector Outperform from Sector Perform at Scotiabank; tgt $182
    • Roku (ROKU) upgraded to Overweight from Equal Weight at Wells Fargo; tgt raised to $129
    • Roku (ROKU) upgraded to Buy from Hold at Pivotal Research Group; tgt raised to $125
    • Upstart (UPST) upgraded to Equal-Weight from Underweight at Morgan Stanley; tgt raised to $70
    • Warner Music Group (WMG) upgraded to Buy from Neutral at Citigroup; tgt raised to $42
    • Welltower (WELL) upgraded to Outperform from Neutral at Wedbush; tgt raised to $167
    • West Pharm (WST) upgraded to Buy from Hold at Deutsche Bank; tgt $250
  • Downgrades:
    • Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) downgraded to Outperform from Buy at Daiwa Securities; tgt lowered to $130
    • Floor & Decor (FND) downgraded to Neutral from Outperform at Wedbush; tgt lowered to $100
    • FMC Corp (FMC) downgraded to Neutral from Buy at Redburn Atlantic; tgt $49
    • PG&E (PCG) downgraded to Underweight from Equal-Weight at Morgan Stanley; tgt lowered to $16.50
    • Restaurant Brands Int'l (QSR) downgraded to Hold from Buy at TD Cowen; tgt $70
  • Others:
    • Align Tech (ALGN) initiated with an Overweight at Wells Fargo; tgt $255
    • Analog Devices (ADI) initiated with a Buy at The Benchmark Company; tgt $245
    • Dentsply Sirona (XRAY) initiated with an Equal Weight at Wells Fargo; tgt $20
    • Griffon (GFF) initiated with a Buy at Loop Capital; tgt $95
    • Henry Schein (HSIC) initiated with an Equal Weight at Wells Fargo; tgt $80
    • Phathom Pharmaceuticals (PHAT) initiated with an Overweight at Cantor Fitzgerald; tgt $23

>>> US Early premarket gappers

Early premarket gappers
  • Gapping up:
    • NUS +24.1%, ROKU +14.6%, ABNB +13.6%, PCOR +11.7%, FROG +11.4%, ELME +8.5%, GME +7.5%, KAI +5.9%, DKNG +5.4%, ZK +5.2%, GT +4.9%, EAF +4.5%, HL +3.6%, FLUT +3.4%, THTX +3.1%, DXCM +2.9%, YELP +2.7%, PDM +2.5%, WYNN +2.1%, AGI +2%, NUKK +1.7%, CAE +1.5%, BIRK +1.4%, TNC +1.2%, UDMY +1.2%, ALLE +1.1%, W +1.1%, EXPE +1%, BKNG +1%, POR +1%, RLI +0.9%, LEG +0.9%, FTS +0.9%, AL +0.8%, VALE +0.7%, WFC +0.7%
  • Gapping down:
    • INFA -34%, IFRX -18.9%, AENT -12.7%, KN -12.3%, NPCE -11.5%, CLW -11.2%, DVA -9%, TWLO -8.8%, EGAN -7.7%, TCX -6.7%, ISSC -6.5%, SA -6.4%, PANW -5.7%, MGA -5.7%, PDFS -5.6%, AMAT -5.1%, BFAM -5%, GDDY -4.8%, NWG -4%, AEE -3.3%, COHU -3%, RARE -2.8%, KNSL -2.3%, HCC -1.8%, VNDA -1.7%, KRT -1.5%, IR -1.4%, VRTX -1.2%, MSI -1.1%, ORRF -1%, CMI -0.8%, COIN -0.8%

>>> Europe : Brokers Upgrades & Downgrades - 14th of February 2025 V2(+)

>>> Up
* Airbnb Raised to Outperform at Baird; PT $175
* Airbnb Raised to Neutral at Goldman; PT $153
* Airbnb PT Raised to $190 from $165 at Canaccord
* Aviva Raised to Overweight at Barclays; PT 565 pence (+)
* Givaudan Raised to Buy at Berenberg; PT 4,700 Swiss francs
* Givaudan ADRs Raised to Buy at Berenberg; PT $104.40
* Harbour Energy Raised to Buy at Peel Hunt; PT 310 pence
* Harvia Raised to Reduce at Inderes; PT 46 euros (+)
* Heineken Raised to Outperform at Oddo BHF; PT 93 euros
* Hongkong Land Raised to Buy at Citi; PT $4.80
* John Mattson Raised to Buy at Kepler Cheuvreux
* Kitron Raised to Buy at Norne Securities; PT 43 kroner
* Kitron Raised to Buy at Arctic Securities; PT 41 kroner (+)
* Lectra Raised to Buy at Kepler Cheuvreux
* Lotus Bakeries Raised to Buy at ING; PT 12,000 euros
* Merlin Properties Raised to Neutral at Citi; PT 11.90 euros
* Metrovacesa Raised to Buy at JB Capital Markets; PT 11.90 euros
* Norwegian Air Raised to Buy at Nordea; PT 14 kroner
* Relais Group Raised to Buy at Inderes; PT 16.50 euros
* Roku Raised to Buy at Pivotal; PT $125
* Roku Raised to Overweight at Wells Fargo; PT $129
* Saab Raised to Buy at Citi; PT 260 kronor
* Siili Solutions Raised to Buy at Inderes; PT 7.50 euros
* Var Energi Raised to Buy at Goldman; PT 41 kroner
* Vetropack Raised to Buy at Berenberg; PT 40 Swiss francs
* Yara Raised to Neutral at BNPP Exane (+)

>>> Down
* Allianz Cut to Neutral at BofA (+)
* AMD Cut to Outperform at Daiwa; PT $130
* ArcelorMittal Cut to Equal-Weight at Morgan Stanley
* Atria Cut to Accumulate at Inderes; PT 13 euros
* Boreo Cut to Reduce at Inderes; PT 12.50 euros
* Cargotec Cut to Sell at Inderes; PT 42 euros
* Cinis Fertilizer Cut to Hold at ABG; PT 4 kronor
* Deutsche Boerse Cut to Neutral at Oddo BHF; PT 253 euros
* Embracer Cut to Hold at ABG; PT 140 kronor
* Fondia Cut to Accumulate at Inderes; PT 5.60 euros
* Fortnox Cut to Hold at ABG; PT 75 kronor
* Hexagon Purus Cut to Hold at Arctic Securities; PT 2.50 kroner (+)
* INVISIO AB Cut to Sell at Pareto Securities; PT 295 kronor
* Mandatum Cut to Reduce at Inderes; PT 4.80 euros
* Mandatum Cut to Hold at Nordea
* Mandatum Cut to Reduce at OP Corporate Bank; PT 5.40 euros (+)
* Mortgage Advice Bureau Cut to Hold at Deutsche Bank
* Optomed Cut to Accumulate at Inderes; PT 5.20 euros
* Optomed Cut to Reduce at Kepler Cheuvreux
* Randstad Raised to Outperform at Bernstein (+)
* Spirax Cut to Sell at Shore Capital; PT 6,100 pence (+)
* Stille Cut to Hold at Pareto Securities; PT 285 kronor
* Valmet Cut to Sell at SEB Equities; PT 26 euros

>>> Initiation
* Asmodee Rated New Buy at ABG; PT 135 kronor
* Bunzl Rated New Buy at Redburn; PT 3,950 pence
* Costain Rated New Buy at Berenberg; PT 140 pence
* JDE Peet's Rated New Buy at KBC Securities; PT 24 euros
* Kontron Rated New Outperform at Oddo BHF; PT 25 euros

>>> Call
* Euronext Shares Seen Lower as Cost Outlook Offsets Beat: Citi (+)
* Givaudan Raised to Buy at Berenberg on Innovation Growth Rates
* Goldman Raises Stoxx 600 Price Targets on Ceasefire Potential
* JPMorgan Strategists Say US Stocks Not Rewarded for Strong Beats (+)
* Safran’s Results and Guidance Raise Boost Confidence, Says Citi (+)
* Umicore Second-Half Results Are Decent, Citi Says (+)
* Yara Raised to Neutral at BNPP Exane on Agriculture Improvement (+)

>>> Airbnb conference call update: North American consumer has been strong (141.

Airbnb conference call update: North American consumer has been strong
  • Business is concentrated in top five core markets: US, UK, Canada, France and Australia. Those five markets comprise about 70% of our gross booking value. Been targeting markets outside of that top five, where there's a sizable opportunity to invest and gain penetration, providing a tailwind to global growth rates. Brazil is a huge success case with overseas investments.
  • Planning to spend approximately $200-250 million this year on overseas market penetration.
  • Believe in some kind of medium term growth in productivity from AI tools. Could easily see a 30% increase in technology and engineering productivity.
  • Want the Airbnb app kind of similar to Amazon, to be one place for all of traveling and living needs. Not a very frequently used app. People typically use it once or twice a year. Long-term goal is for people to use it once or twice a week.
  • Market dominated by hotels. Business continues to be a fraction of the overall lodging industry. There's plenty of room to grow.
  • At the end of Q3 and consistent with Q3 results that played through with Q4, is that muted bookings growth over the summer was somewhat temporal. Folks sitting on the sidelines in terms of making their future bookings in the summer came back in the fall and did indeed make those bookings.
  • Consumer and in particular the North American consumer has been strong and in particular has been strong in terms of contemplating future travel.

>>> Stoxx 600 Pre-Market Indications

  • Hermes (HMI TH) +5.1%
    • Hermes Sales Jump as Label Outperforms During Luxury Slowdown
  • NatWest (RYSD TH) +2.5%
    • *NATWEST 4Q PRETAX OPER PROFIT GBP1.49B, EST. GBP1.4B
  • Prosus (1TY TH) +1.9%
    • Elisa, UMG Bond Spreads vs Communications Peers Tighten
  • Var Energi (J4V TH) +1.8%
  • Saab (SDV1 TH) +1.7%
  • Tomra (TMRA TH) +1.6%
    • Tomra FY Dividend per Share NOK2.15
  • GN Store Nord (GNN TH) +1.5%
  • Lotus Bakeries (7LB TH) +1.1%
    • Lotus Bakeries Raised to Buy at ING; PT 12,000 euros
  • Rolls-Royce (RRU TH) +1%
  • BAT (BMT TH) +1%
  • Deutsche Boerse (DB1 TH) -1.5%
    • Deutsche Boerse Cut to Neutral at Oddo BHF; PT 253 euros
  • VW (VOW3 TH) -1.7%
    • Europe’s Pharma, Car Giants Most at Risk From Trump Tariffs
  • Rubis (BYN TH) -1.9%
  • Sanofi (SNW TH) -1.9%
    • Europe’s Pharma, Car Giants Most at Risk From Trump Tariffs
  • Mercedes (MBG TH) -1.9%
    • Europe’s Pharma, Car Giants Most at Risk From Trump Tariffs
  • Continental (CON TH) -2%
    • Europe’s Pharma, Car Giants Most at Risk From Trump Tariffs
  • Ferrari (2FE TH) -2.1%
    • Europe’s Pharma, Car Giants Most at Risk From Trump Tariffs
  • Fresenius Medical Care (FME TH) -2.6%
    • Europe’s Pharma, Car Giants Most at Risk From Trump Tariffs
  • Freenet (FNTN TH) -2.6%
  • Embracer (TH92 TH) -4.1%
    • Embracer Cut to Hold at ABG; PT 140 kronor

>>> TradeGate Pre-Market Indications

DAX:
  • BMW (BMW TH) -1.3%
    • Trump Floats Auto Tariffs Targeting $240 Billion Trade Spigot
  • Deutsche Boerse (DB1 TH) -1.4%
    • Deutsche Boerse Cut to Neutral at Oddo BHF; PT 253 euros
  • VW (VOW3 TH) -1.6%
    • Trump Floats Auto Tariffs Targeting $240 Billion Trade Spigot
  • Fresenius Medical Care (FME TH) -2.3%
MDAX:
  • Hensoldt (HAG TH) +1.3%
    • Europe Reckons With Ailing Defense Sector as Russia Threat Looms
  • Freenet (FNTN TH) -2.5%
  • United Internet (UTDI TH) -7.5%
    • United Internet Prelim FY Ebitda EU1.29B,Citing Higher Expenses
SDAX:
  • Medios (ILM1 TH) +1.9%
  • Kontron (KTN TH) +1.6%
    • Kontron Rated New Outperform at Oddo BHF; PT 25 euros
  • Borussia Dortmund (BVB TH) +1.2%
  • LPKF (LPK TH) -1.5%
  • Schaeffler (SHA0 TH) -1.7%
  • Stabilus (STM TH) -2.1%
  • PNE AG (PNE3 TH) -2.6%
  • Eckert & Ziegler (EUZ TH) -5%

>>> What to look at today - 14th of February 2025

Asian equities advanced Friday as markets reacted positively to signs reciprocal US tariffs may be weeks from coming into effect, raising the prospect for negotiations that could make them less punitive. A benchmark of Asian shares gained for a third day, while US equity index futures also ticked higher. That was after the S&P 500 climbed toward a record on Thursday, helping propel a measure of global shares to an all-time high. Contracts for European futures traded lower. The South Korean won and the yen strengthened, while a gauge of the dollar held near a two-month low. The support for equities suggests investors have focused on speculation the talks may blunt the impact of the tariffs, echoing the response to delays on those leveled at Canada and Mexico earlier this month. The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index has dropped about 2.5% from February’s high as investors wind back bets that Trump is determined to ramp up global tariffs as part of his “America First” policy. The work required to propose reciprocal tariffs will occur on a country-by-country basis and could take until April to complete, said Howard Lutnick, Trump’s nominee to lead the Commerce Department. The comments followed news that Trump had ordered his administration to consider reciprocal tariffs on numerous trading partners, singling out Japan and South Korea as nations that he believes are taking advantage of the US. As much as 92% of 153 respondents to a Bloomberg survey expect US tariffs of some sort to be implemented within six months. More than half of the participants expect the US to place tariffs on at least some economies and over a third expect universal levies to be enacted as well. An index of the dollar was little changed Friday after its biggest drop in three weeks in the prior session. Growing speculation that new tariffs are a negotiating tool is undermining the popular trade of betting on the dollar. Treasuries were little changed in Asian trading after a rally in the prior session. In Asia, Chinese stocks in Hong Kong extended a recent rally as the nation’s growing capabilities in artificial intelligence boosted optimism over the market’s outlook. The Hang Seng China Enterprises Index jumped as much as 2.9% on Friday, getting closer to topping an October peak following a stimulus blitz. Apple Inc. is working to bring its AI features to China by the middle of this year. Jefferies Financial Group Inc. warned retail funds flowing into the India’s equity mutual funds is at risk of abating as market returns decline. The ongoing decline in Indian shares has erased more than $600 billion in market value since hitting a peak in late September. The benchmark BSE Sensex index fell for the eighth straight session.  Trump and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi agreed to begin negotiations to address the US trade deficit, with US president seeking to reduce import taxes and Modi focused on growing overall trade between the countries. Gold fluctuated, still trading near a record high. The precious metal has gained this year, powered by haven demand, setting successive records with potential to line up a test of $3,000 an ounce. Elsewhere in commodities, oil steadied as the market digested the fallout from Trump’s order of potential reciprocal tariffs on US trading partners. US After Hours ABNB +14.6%, PCOR +11.9%, ROKU +11.6%, DKNG +7%, YELP +3.1% higher on earnings; INFA -32.7%, TWLO -6%, PANW -5%, AMAT -4.6% lower on earnings.

Nikkei -0.80% Hang Seng +2.75% CSI +0.86% Shanghai +0.41% Shenzen +0.75%

Eur$ 1.0459 CNH 7.2782 CNY 7.2784 JPY 152.54 GBP 1.2561 CHF 0.9039 RUB 89.1855 TRY 36.2022 WTI$ 71.33 +0.20% Gold 2,934 +0.20% BTC 96,670 +0.120% ETH 2,694 +0.99%

S&P +0.09% Nasdaq +0.08% EuroStoxx -0.31% FTSE -0.02% Dax -0.51% SMI -0.14%

Macro :
- RFK Jr. Has Enough Votes to Be Confirmed as HHS Secretary
- Germany Says Europe ‘Promised’ to Remedy Gas Storage Squeeze
- Taiwan’s President to Hold Meeting on US Tariffs Friday: Reuters
- Trump Floats Auto Tariffs Targeting $240 Billion Trade Spigot
- Goldman Raises Stoxx 600 Price Targets on Ceasefire Potential

Keep an eye on :
- 1P1 GY : 1&1 Prelim FY Revenue EU4.06B
- ABNB US : Billionaire Airbnb Co-Founder Is Said to Take Role in Musk’s Government Initiative
- AKER NO : Aker FY Dividend per Share NOK26.50
- AKER NO : Aker CEO Says ICP Companies Attracting Interest From Investors
- BABA US : Alibaba’s 50% Jump Vindicates Burry, Tepper as AI Pays Off (1)
- Apleona : Bain Is Said to Near €4 Billion Deal for PAI-Backed Apleona
- AAPL US : Apple Plans to Overhaul China iPhones With AI by Middle of Year
- AAPL US :
- ARM US : Arm secures Meta as first customer for ambitious new chip project
- BMY US : Bristol Myers’ Phase 3 RELATIVITY-098 Trial Didn’t Meet Endpoint
- CBK GY : Commerzbank Needs Details on Governance, Returns from UniCredit
- CBK GY : Orcel Faces Fresh Opposition From Merz in Chase for Commerzbank
- ENX FP : Euronext 4Q Adjusted Ebitda Beats Estimates
- ETL FP : Eutelsat 1H Revenue Meets Estimates
- FIE GY : Fielmann Group appoints Chief Operating Officer Peter Lothes to Management Board
- GFC FP : Gecina 2025 Recurrent Net per Share Forecast Misses Estimates
- RMS FP : Hermes 4Q Sales at Constant Exchange Rates Beat Estimates
- HUH1V FH : Huhtamaki 4Q Adjusted Ebit Beats Estimates, Huhtamaki FY Dividend per Share Matches Estimates
- KESKOB FH : Kesko Jan. Comparable Sales +1.5%
- KPN NA : KPN Boosts 2025 Guidance After Creating JV With ABP
- MMB FP : Lagardere FY Recurring Ebit Beats Estimates
- MOBN SW : Mobimo FY Ebit Meets Estimates
- MONC IM : Moncler 4Q Revenue Beats Estimates
- NWG LN : NatWest 4Q Pretax Operating Profit Beats Estimates
- NVG PL : Navigator Co FY Net Income EU286.9M Vs. EU274.9M Y/y
- NHY NO : Norsk Hydro 4Q Adjusted Ebitda Misses Estimates
- NOVN SW : Novartis Granted FDA Orphan Drug Status for Ianalumab
- NUS US :
- BPSO IM : Insurer Unipol Backs BPER’s Offer for Popolare Sondrio
- CFR SW : Richemont Reshuffles Senior Executive Committee
- SAF FP : Safran Boosts 2025 Adj. Recurring Oper Income View, Misses Est.
- SAN SM : Santander Explored Sale of UK Business With NatWest: FT
- SGRO LN : Segro FY Adjusted EPS Misses Estimates
- Shein IPO : Shein IPO Likely Pushed to 2H After US Targets China Trade: FT
- TIETO FH : TietoEVRY FY Dividend per Share Beats Estimates
- TOM NO : Tomra FY Dividend per Share NOK2.15
- TTE FP : BPCL Signs One-Yr Deal With TotalEnergies for Middle East Crude
- X US : US Steel Shares Drop as Trump Says He Doesn’t Want Japan Deal
- X US : Nippon Steel to Maintain Plan to Buy US Steel, TV Tokyo Says
- UMI BB : Umicore 2H Adjusted Ebit Beats Estimates
- UNI IM : Unipol Assicurazioni SpA FY Dividend per Share Beats Estimates
- UTDI GY : United Internet Prelim FY Ebitda EU1.29B,Citing Higher Expenses
- DG FP : Vinci Names CEOs for Its Highways and Airports Divisions
- VOLVB SS : Volvo to Step Up Production in Gent to Meet Demand, DI Reports
- WEHB BB : Wereldhave Belgium: Acquisition Shopping Center Knauf Pommerloch
- XPS LN : XPS Pensions Sees Earnings Materially Ahead of Expectations