TheChek News Flow

S&P option expiry: We estimate that over $5.9 trillion of notional options exposure will expire tomorrow (06/20), including $4.0 trillion of SPX options and $925 billion notional of single stock options. This options expiration will be the largest June expiration on record

Quarter-end estimates: We have pensions modeled to sell -$20bn of US equities (90th %tile among all buy and sell estimates in absolute dollar value terms over the past three years and the 7th %tile on the net basis). Our model puts more weight on the quarterly dynamics (vs. just monthly), and perhaps is overstating some of the estimated flows. Additionally, we expect approximately $10bn delta to buy on quarter-end as long as we’re trading above 5905 in SPX on the last day of the month, which will act as an offset to a lot of the pension selling.

Systematics: now long $126bn US equities but CTAs have shifted to small sellers over the next 1w as we project -$310mm to sell in a flat tape scenario. In an up tape, there is still some demand to buy with $790mm over 1w and $7.59bn over 1m – led by Russell ($3.46bn) and S&P ($3.41bn) demand. Overall positioning has remained largely unchanged, but we expect to see funds continue to re-lever when/if SPX 3m realized volatility comes in.

Shipments of Swiss watches fell nearly 10 percent globally as top markets’ downturn seriously dented two-year gains.

PARIS – The pendulum has swung back for Swiss watch exports in May after April’s surge fueled by U.S. tariff concerns.

Shipments of wristwatches fell 9.7 percent, coming just shy of 2 billion Swiss francs or $2.4 billion, and over 13 percent in units in the month, according to figures published Thursday by the Federation of the Swiss Watch Industry.

Weighing heavily on the month’s tallies was the performance of the U.S., still the top market for Swiss timepieces.

Exports to the country slumped 25 percent year-on-year, and its share shrank to 12.8 percent. By comparison, it took a 16.8 percent slice of the overall market in 2024 and accounted for a third of watch exports in May.

Fluctuations in American tariff policies may not be the only contributor to watch export woes.

Shipments to the top six markets – a group that includes China, Japan, Hong Kong, Singapore and the U.K. and account for nearly half of all exports – were down 16 percent overall.

For Japan, Citi analyst Thomas Chauvet said the country’s 11 percent decline was reflected “gradual normalisation in inbound tourist flows from Chinese and Korean travellers and negative local demand.”

Big spenders have also been losing their appetite for luxury due to a combination of factors that include lingering economic uncertainty, U.S. president Donald Trump’s trade policy and yoyo-ing financial markets, according to a recent Bernstein report based on Agility’s latest research.

Bar the 500-to-3,000 Swiss francs category which remained flat in value despite a 4.3 percent slump in volume, all other price points and material categories were affected.

Elon Musk’s X to offer investment and trading in ‘super app’ push

Foray into financial services could include introducing credit or debit card, CEO Linda Yaccarino says

X chief executive Linda Yaccarino has said that users will “soon” be able to make investments or trades on the social media platform, as she outlined a push into financial services in owner Elon Musk’s quest to build an “everything app”. 

“You’ll be able to come to X and be able to transact your whole financial life on the platform,” Yaccarino said in an interview with the Financial Times at the Cannes Lions advertising festival. “And that’s whether I can pay you for the pizza that we shared last night or make an investment or a trade. So that’s the future.” 

She added that the company was also exploring the introduction of an X credit or debit card, which could come as soon as this year. 

The proposed foray into financial services comes as Musk seeks to model the platform, which he bought in 2022, after China’s WeChat — a one-stop shop for messaging, payments and shopping.

X has already said it will be introducing X Money, a digital wallet and peer-to-peer payment service, with Visa as its first partner later this year.

Yaccarino on Tuesday added that X Money would launch in the US first before being rolled out elsewhere, and said that the service would allow users to buy merchandise, store value or tip creators on the platform.

“A whole commerce ecosystem and a financial ecosystem is going to emerge on the platform that does not exist today,” she said. 

A big push into financial services would, however, open X up to burdensome regulatory challenges, such as compliance with licensing and money laundering regulations.

X has struggled to return to financial health after advertisers, which account for the majority of its revenues, left in droves following Musk’s $44bn acquisition of the platform then known as Twitter. Many cited concerns about his hands-off approach to moderation, meaning their ads could be placed near objectionable content, as well as the billionaire entrepreneur’s own provocative use of the platform. 

Tensions between X’s leadership and advertisers have flared. In the interview, Yaccarino pushed back against allegations that the social media company recently threatened brands with lawsuits if they failed to buy advertising on X.

She dismissed as “hearsay” a Wall Street Journal report last week, which said that half a dozen brands, including Verizon and Ralph Lauren, had struck deals to buy ads after receiving the threats. “It’s unnamed sources, random third-party commenters,” Yaccarino said.

X filed a federal antitrust lawsuit last summer against the Global Alliance for Responsible Media, a coalition of brands and ad agencies, as well as several other brands. The social media company accused the group of violating competition law by co-ordinating an “illegal boycott” under the guise of an online safety initiative.

Over time, X has added or removed several brands from the complaint. It dropped Unilever from the lawsuit after it restarted advertising on the social media platform in October.

Yaccarino said that 96 per cent of the company’s advertising clients prior to acquisition had now come back to the platform, and that the company would reach its target of returning to its 2022 advertising levels “super soon”. 

Some advertisers and agencies at Cannes told the FT that they were still cautious about running ads on X and sceptical that it would hit its targets in the near future — pointing to the toxicity of content on the platform.

Others had felt pressured to advertise, according to people familiar with the discussions, with one alleging that they were told to spend a specific amount or face a lawsuit. Musk’s close relationship with US President Donald Trump had made advertisers feel more anxious to comply with the demands, the person said.

Research firm Emarketer projects that X’s revenue will increase to $2.3bn this year, compared with $1.9bn a year ago. However, global sales in 2022, when Musk took over, were $4.1bn.

Yaccarino also touted plans to bolster X’s artificial intelligence capabilities after it was bought by xAI, Musk’s artificial intelligence start-up, for $45bn in March. She argued that the tie-up would help better deliver advertising against trending content in real time, adding that she now had “double the amount of engineers” working to improve the platform.

Changes follow a period of depressed sales across the industry and are expected to result in job losses

Drinks maker Pernod Ricard is reorganising its business to cut costs and eventually headcount amid a depressed global market for alcohol, the company’s leadership told employees this week. 

The maker of Jameson whiskey, Absolut Vodka and Martell Cognac will simplify its structure, centralising some functions and administration, according to people with knowledge of the details, which will eventually lead to some job cuts. 

The company will divide its brands into two units. The first will include its whiskey, champagne and cognac brands; the second will include other spirits and aperitifs. No numbers have been agreed on job reductions because the company is just beginning the process of evaluating and negotiating with its businesses, the people said. 

Pernod Ricard said: “We work on an ongoing basis to adapt our organisation and ways of working to the fast-evolving business environment. That is why we have announced to all our employees an internal project aimed to create a more agile and simplified organisation.”

The restructuring was first reported by Reuters.

The changes follow a period of depressed sales across the industry as consumers cut their spending on wine and alcohol amid anxieties about inflation and the economy. The sector is also contending with a trend for people to cut down on drinking. 

Pernod Ricard’s sales fell 3 per cent in its most recent quarter, pulled down by sharp declines in sales of Martell cognac in China. Stockpiling in the US ahead of Donald Trump’s April tariff announcements was not enough to offset this, and US sales also declined in the quarter.   

Last month, Pernod Ricard rival Moët Hennessy, which is owned by LVMH, told staff it would reduce headcount by around 13 per cent — around 1,200 jobs — in the coming years to adapt to the market downturn. Moët has been cutting its marketing and travel budgets since mid-2023, as well as trying to reduce head count.

Diageo, the world’s largest spirits group, announced in May that it was reviewing its portfolio to identify “substantial” disposals. It also unveiled a $500mn cost-cutting programme it hopes will deliver $3bn in annual cash flow from next year.

Diageo has come under pressure from investors to improve its performance and reduce its leverage.

The Smirnoff and Johnnie Walker owner scrapped its medium term sales target at its half year earnings in February in response to weak demand and uncertainty caused by US tariffs.