>>> US Gapping up

Gapping up
In reaction to earnings/guidance
:
  • UPST +27%, MCY +22.8%, CFLT +13.8% (also announces strategic partnership with jio platforms), SMCI +10.1% (also delays 10-Q filing; in late 2024, received subpoenas from DOJ and SEC; also $700 mln private placement of convertible notes), CVS +9.8%, IVT +9.4%, PBI +8.7% (also names new CFO), UFCS +8.2%, RDWR +7.4%, MLYS +7.1%, FRSH +6.9%, ELMD +6.2%, DASH +6.1%, LAD +6.1%, TMHC +5.8%, MIR +5.1%, HIW +5%, PAX +4.7%, ANGI +4.6%, EW +4.5%, GILD +4.4% (also increases dividend), CAMT +4.1%, IAC +3.9%, BHF +3.7%, QSR +3.6%, AKR +3.5% (also increases dividend), CRSP +3.4%, GNRC +3.4%, HIVE +3.3%, ALKS +3.2%, HCSG +3.1%, BAM +3%, CHEF +2.9%, SPTN +2.9%, BVN +2.7%, RRR +2.1%, CME +2%, THC +1.9%, MRC +1.8%, COOP +1.7%, ST +1.6%, ECG +1.4%, DENN +1.3%, PAL +1.2%, GOLD +1.2%, ADC +1%, NI +1%,
Other news:
  • ANAB +37.4% (to announce phase 2b trial data of Rosnilimab)
  • RDFN +5.4% (announces content license agreement and partnership agreement with Zillow)
  • SWTX +3.4% (confirms that the FDA has approved GOMEKLI for the treatment of adult and pediatric patients 2 years of age and older with neurofibromatosis type 1 who have symptomatic plexiform neurofibromas)
  • VLN +2.9% (authorizes new $15 mln share repurchase program)
  • MXCT +2.9% (enters strategic platform license with TG Therapeutics) HP +2.7% (CEO and a Director bought 57,356 shares worth nearly $1.6 mln)
  • LTBR +2.6% (announces a significant milestone in its innovative nuclear fuel development efforts)
  • RDDT +2.4% (ICE and RDDT announce data analytics partnership)
  • POET +1.8% (provides business update)
  • WAFD +1.6% (increases dividend)
  • CPA +1.1% (reports Jan traffic)

>>> US Gapping down

Gapping down
In reaction to earnings/guidance
:
  • STAA -36.7%, SMWB -25.9%, OS -17.5%, LYFT -13.6%, BL -13.4%, TDC -13.4% (also CFO to step down), VRT -8.7%, ZG -6.6% (also announces content and license partnership with RDFN), ALSN -6.3%, VPG -5.9%, WAB -5.8%, WAT -5%, KHC -3.9%, SW -3.7%, SLVM -3.4%, CIM -3.2%, MLM -3.2%, PAMT -2.1%, CAR -1.9%, MCRI -1.9%, DBD -1.7%, ET -1.6%, SAGE -1.1%, ADPT -1%, BXMT -1%
Other news:
  • SPIR -52.4% (discloses substantial doubt about ability to continue as a going concern)
  • ZWS -3.8% (prices offering by selling shareholder of 7.75 mln shares of common stock at $35.00 per share)
  • BCAX -3.6% (first patients enrolled in FORTIFI-HN01)
  • ULCC -3% (discloses Spirit Airlines (SAVEQ) updates)
  • BOOM -2.3% (rejected a non-binding proposal from Steel Connect to acquire all of the outstanding shares of common stock of the Company, not already owned by Steel Connect, for $10.18 per share in cash)
  • RNST -1.4% (files mixed shelf securities offering)

>>> US Research Calls II

Research Calls II
  • Upgrades:
    • EOG Resources (EOG) upgraded to Outperform from Sector Perform at RBC Capital Mkts; tgt raised to $155
    • Ero Copper (ERO) upgraded to Buy from Hold at TD Cowen
    • Grupo Aeroportuario del Pacifico (PAC) upgraded to Hold from Underperform at Jefferies; tgt raised to $210
    • NXP Semi (NXPI) upgraded to Overweight from Equal-Weight at Morgan Stanley; tgt raised to $257
  • Downgrades:
    • Banco Bradesco (BBD) downgraded to Sell from Buy at Goldman; tgt lowered to $2
    • BayCom (BCML) downgraded to Market Perform from Outperform at Hovde Group; tgt $31
    • Endeavor Group (EDR) downgraded to Sell from Neutral at Seaport Research Partners; tgt $27.50
    • Fidelity Nat'l Info (FIS) downgraded to Neutral from Positive at Susquehanna; tgt lowered to $81
    • GlobalFoundries (GFS) upgraded to Buy from Hold at Needham; tgt $50
    • Inhibikase Therapeutics (IKT) downgraded to Neutral from Buy at H.C. Wainwright
    • OneStream (OS) downgraded to Neutral from Overweight at JP Morgan; tgt lowered to $26
    • Opportunity Financial (OPFI) downgraded to Mkt Perform from Mkt Outperform at JMP Securities
    • TKO Group Holdings (TKO) downgraded to Neutral from Buy at Seaport Research Partners
  • Others:
    • Instacart (CART) initiated with a Buy at Seaport Research Partners; tgt $62
    • ProQR Therapeutics (PRQR) initiated with a Buy at JonesResearch
    • Transportadora de Gas del Sur (TGS) initiated with a Buy at Citigroup; tgt $35
    • Uranium Energy (UEC) initiated with an Outperform at National Bank Financial; tgt $10
    • Volaris Aviation (VLRS) initiated with an Outperform at Itau BBA; tgt $12

>>> US Research Calls III

Research Calls III
  • Upgrades:
    • Banco Santander Brasil (BSBR) upgraded to Neutral from Sell at Goldman; tgt raised to $4.70
    • Dell (DELL) upgraded to Positive from Mixed at OTR Global
    • LCI Industries (LCII) upgraded to Market Outperform from Market Perform at CJS Securities; tgt $145
  • Downgrades:
    • Hovnanian (HOV) downgraded to Underperform from Neutral at Zelman
    • Moleculin Biotech (MBRX) downgraded to Hold from Buy at Maxim Group
  • Others:
    • Essential Properties Realty Trust (EPRT) initiated with an Overweight at CapitalOne; tgt $35
    • Myriad Genetics (MYGN) initiated with a Buy at Craig Hallum; tgt $29

FT : UK trader wins fight against extradition to US on insider trading charges

UK trader wins fight against extradition to US on insider trading charges
UK Supreme Court on Wednesday quashed extradition of Joseph El-Khouri, curbing the reach of US prosecutors

The UK Supreme Court has quashed the extradition to the US of a trader accused of insider trading in an unusual decision by British judges to curb the reach of American justice.

The UK’s highest court on Wednesday ruled in favour of Joseph El-Khouri, who US prosecutors claimed netted $2mn in profits from an insider trading conspiracy.

El-Khouri, a dual British and Lebanese national who lives in the UK, was charged in New York in 2019 and accused of obtaining inside information about prospective mergers and acquisitions of New York-listed companies.

The Manhattan US attorney’s office claimed he paid an intermediary for the information in cash and gifts including a yacht in Greece, a chalet in France and a hotel room in New York, and traded “contracts for difference” through a UK broker.

El-Khouri resisted extradition and accused the American authorities of over-reach, arguing that any links to the US were tenuous as the alleged misconduct took place in London.

A lower court had previously allowed his extradition after a hearing in 2021 and the UK government ordered that El-Khouri be sent to the US. An initial appeal by the trader at the High Court in London failed.

But a panel of five senior judges, led by the Supreme Court president Lord Robert Reed, on Wednesday unanimously ruled in his favour, blocking his removal on the grounds that the alleged criminality occurred outside the US.

The court noted that the UK’s Financial Conduct Authority conducted an investigation into El-Khouri between November 2016 and January 2018 but had concluded there was insufficient evidence to prosecute him.

El-Khouri’s lawyer, Richard Cannon of Stokoe Partnership Solicitors, said the ruling “brings to an end a five-and-a-half-year nightmare” that began with his arrest in 2019.

He added that the decision “represents an important check on over-reach” by the US authorities.

The US state department in London did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

>>> US Research Calls I

Research Calls I
  • Upgrades:
    • Compass Minerals (CMP) upgraded to Overweight from Neutral at JP Morgan; tgt raised to $15
    • CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP) upgraded to Hold from Sell at TD Cowen; tgt $35
    • Mercury General (MCY) upgraded to Strong Buy from Outperform at Raymond James; tgt raised to $80
    • Upstart (UPST) upgraded to Buy from Neutral at B. Riley Securities; tgt raised to $105
    • Upstart (UPST) upgraded to Neutral from Underweight at JP Morgan; tgt raised to $79
  • Downgrades:
    • Axcelis Tech (ACLS) downgraded to Mkt Perform from Outperform at William Blair
    • Fluence (FLNC) downgraded to Peer Perform from Outperform at Wolfe Research
    • Fluence (FLNC) downgraded to Neutral from Buy at ROTH MKM; tgt lowered to $6.50
    • Fluence (FLNC) downgraded to Sector Perform from Outperform at RBC Capital Mkts; tgt lowered to $7
    • Fluence (FLNC) downgraded to Neutral from Buy at UBS; tgt lowered to $8
    • On (ONON) downgraded to Neutral from Buy at Goldman; tgt $57
    • PPG Industries (PPG) downgraded to Neutral from Overweight at JP Morgan; tgt lowered to $115
    • STAAR Surgical (STAA) downgraded to Mkt Perform from Outperform at William Blair
    • STAAR Surgical (STAA) downgraded to Neutral from Buy at BTIG Research
    • STAAR Surgical (STAA) downgraded to Neutral from Outperform at Mizuho; tgt lowered to $17
    • Tempus AI (TEM) downgraded to Mkt Perform from Outperform at William Blair
    • Third Harmonic Bio (THRD) downgraded to Equal-Weight from Overweight at Morgan Stanley; tgt lowered to $5
  • Others:
    • AstraZeneca (AZN) initiated with an Overweight at Morgan Stanley
    • Blaize Holdings (BZAI) initiated with a Buy at DA Davidson; tgt $10
    • CleanSpark (CLSK) initiated with a Buy at Needham; tgt $20
    • Exodus Movement (EXOD) initiated with a Buy at Compass Point; tgt $70
    • GlaxoSmithKline (GSK) initiated with an Equal-Weight at Morgan Stanley
    • Lucid Group (LCID) initiated with a Buy at The Benchmark Company; tgt $5
    • Novartis AG (NVS) initiated with an Underweight at Morgan Stanley
    • Novo Nordisk A/S (NVO) initiated with an Equal-Weight at Morgan Stanley
    • Ralph Lauren (RL) initiated with a Buy at Needham; tgt $310
    • Rapid Micro Biosystems (RPID) initiated with an Overweight at KeyBanc Capital Markets; tgt $8
    • Roche Hldg (RHHBY) initiated with an Equal-Weight at Morgan Stanley
    • Tesla (TSLA) initiated with a Buy at The Benchmark Company; tgt $475
    • V.F. Corp (VFC) initiated with a Buy at Needham; tgt $28

>>> Europe : Brokers Upgrades & Downgrades - 12th of February 2025 V2(+)

>>> Up
* Alpha Services Raised to Outperform at Mediobanca SpA
* BPER Banca Raised to Buy at Deutsche Bank; PT 7.60 euros
* Budimex Raised to Neutral at Citi; PT 551 zloty
* Carl Zeiss Meditec Raised to Hold at Stifel; PT 60 euros
* DiaSorin Raised to Buy at Stifel; PT 115 euros
* Grifols Raised to Overweight at Morgan Stanley; PT 12 euros
* Harbour Energy Raised to Neutral at Goldman; PT 245 pence
* Lufthansa Raised to Outperform at Bernstein; PT 8 euros (+)
* Marimekko Raised to Accumulate at Evli Bank; PT 13 euros
* NXP Semi Upgraded at Morgan Stanley on Aligning Tailwinds
* Piraeus Bank Raised to Outperform at Mediobanca SpA
* Ponsse Raised to Accumulate at Inderes; PT 24 euros
* Sartorius Raised to Overweight at Morgan Stanley; PT 340 euros
* Sartorius Stedim Raised to Overweight at Morgan Stanley
* Schott Pharma Raised to Buy at Stifel; PT 26.50 euros
* SGS PT Raised to 110 Swiss francs at Bank Vontobel (+)
* Teleste Raised to Accumulate at Inderes; PT 3.20 euros
* UPM-Kymmene Raised to Buy at Citi; PT 36 euros

>>> Down
* Alisa Pankki Oyj Cut to Reduce at Evli Bank; PT 18 euro cents (+)
* AstraZeneca Cut to Hold at Nordea
* Entain Cut to Neutral at BofA (+)
* Fortum Cut to Neutral at Oddo BHF; PT 15.50 euros (+)
* H&M Cut to Hold at Deutsche Bank; PT 160 kronor
* Hexagon Purus Cut to Hold at Pareto Securities; PT 2 kroner
* IAG Cut to Market Perform at Bernstein; PT 350 pence (+)
* L'Oreal Cut to Equal-Weight at Morgan Stanley; PT 379 euros
* Lanxess Cut to Neutral at Van Lanschot Kempen; PT 29 euros
* Logista Cut to Neutral at Grupo Santander; PT 33.20 euros
* Lonza Cut to Equal-Weight at Morgan Stanley; PT 625 Swiss francs
* Merck KGaA Cut to Equal-Weight at Morgan Stanley; PT 160 euros
* NNIT Cut to Sell at ABG; PT 70 kroner
* On Holding Cut to Neutral at Goldman; PT $57
* Orsted Cut to Neutral at BofA (+)
* Witted Megacorp Cut to Accumulate at Inderes; PT 1.80 euros

>>> Initiation
* Ashtead Technology Rated New Buy at Investec; PT 819 pence
* AstraZeneca Rated New Overweight at Morgan Stanley
* Covestro Rated New Market Perform at CICC; PT 62 euros
* GSK Reinstated Underweight at Morgan Stanley; PT 1,450 pence (+)
* GSK ADRs Reinstated Underweight at Morgan Stanley; PT $36 (+)
* HelloFresh Rated New Buy at M.M. Warburg; PT 15.40 euros (+)
* Novo Rated New Equal-Weight at Morgan Stanley; PT 700 kroner
* Novo ADRs Reinstated Equal-Weight at Morgan Stanley; PT $99 (+)
* Roche ADRs Reinstated Equal-Weight at Morgan Stanley; PT $42 (+)
* Roche Reinstated Equal-Weight at Morgan Stanley (+)
* Zegona Communications Rated New Outperform at Grupo Santander

>>> Call
* Heineken’s ‘Excellent’ Results Contain Little to Fault, RBC Says (+)
* L’Oreal Downgraded at Morgan Stanley Amid Decelerating Growth

FT Lex : Palantir’s exorbitant valuation mixes mystery and mayhem

Palantir’s exorbitant valuation mixes mystery and mayhem
US data analytics group could live up to the hype

If 2024 was the year Nvidia ate the world, 2025 belongs to Palantir. The defence-focused data-crunching company was the best-performing stock in the S&P 500 last year, overtaking the giant chipmaker after November’s US election. In the last week alone, its shares have risen by one-third, to give it a market capitalisation of nearly $260bn. The company’s mission: “making America more lethal”.

Explosive share price rises and bombastic rhetoric are easy fodder for meme stock-weary investors. Palantir certainly has many of the hallmarks. Chief executive Alex Karp describes his products as “powerful as fnck”. A valuation of 50 times next year’s forecast sales is twice the highest multiple ever afforded Tesla, Alphabet or Nvidia as listed companies.

Even so, Palantir could live up to the hype. Underneath the brimstone and vengeance, Palantir has worked out how to corral companies’ sprawling data troves to make them more efficient. To commercial customers, Palantir is something valuable if prosaic: a consultant that sells software, or what UBS analysts call a “McKinsey-meets-Databricks”.


Strip away the braggadocio, and it’s easier to have a sane conversation about Palantir’s worth. Analysts at Morningstar think it could one day capture 3 per cent of a total market worth $1.6tn, implying revenue of nearly $50bn. On a multiple of 10 times sales, in line with software giant Microsoft, Palantir should — eventually — be worth $500bn.

The question for investors is how long it takes to get there. Today, Palantir’s annual revenue is just $2.9bn. That’s the same size Salesforce, another software revolutionary, was in 2013. Marc Benioff’s company managed to sustain a growth rate above 20 per cent for almost a decade, something few companies have matched. 

Yet even at this rapid clip, Palantir would fall short. Indeed, using a 10 per cent cost of capital to discount future cash flows, it’s as if investors are saying Palantir can hit that revenue of $50bn in six years — a staggering 60 per cent annual growth rate.


One thing Palantir has now that Salesforce didn’t is AI. Companies like Microsoft, Amazon and OpenAI have sunk billions of dollars into models Palantir engineers can use to get creative. It doesn’t hurt either that Karp and co-founder Peter Thiel have established a revolving door of contacts between their company and western governments.

Those are powerful assets. Even armed with both of them, Karp needs to produce growth his predecessors couldn’t have imagined in order to justify that valuation. If he can keep up his knack for fuelling corporate greed and government fear, Palantir has a fighting chance.