>>> US Research Calls II

Research Calls II
  • Upgrades:
    • Brixmor Property (BRX) upgraded to Outperform from In-line at Evercore ISI
    • Equifax (EFX) downgraded to Hold from Buy at Argus
    • Genmab (GMAB) upgraded to Neutral from Underperform at Exane BNP Paribas
    • Peloton (PTON) upgraded to Buy from Hold at Argus; tgt $15
    • RTX (RTX) upgraded to Buy from Hold at Argus
    • Southwest Air (LUV) upgraded to Buy from Hold at Argus; tgt $35
  • Downgrades:
    • First National (FXNC) downgraded to Market Perform from Outperform at Hovde Group; tgt $28.50
    • Q32 Bio (QTTB) downgraded to Neutral from Overweight at Piper Sandler; tgt lowered to $4
    • Q32 Bio (QTTB) downgraded to Market Perform from Outperform at BMO Capital Markets; tgt lowered to $3
    • REGENXBIO (RGNX) downgraded to Neutral from Buy at Goldman; tgt lowered to $14
  • Others:
    • Alkermes Plc (ALKS) initiated with a Buy at Deutsche Bank; tgt $40
    • Avadel Pharmaceuticals (AVDL) initiated with a Buy at Deutsche Bank; tgt $12
    • Axsome Therapeutics (AXSM) initiated with a Buy at Deutsche Bank; tgt $176
    • Gaia (GAIA) initiated with a Buy at ROTH MKM; tgt $10
    • Harmony Biosciences (HRMY) initiated with a Buy at Deutsche Bank; tgt $55
    • Marker Therapeutics (MRKR) initiated with a Buy at Brookline
    • Neurocrine Biosciences (NBIX) initiated with a Hold at Deutsche Bank; tgt $138
    • Xenon Pharmaceuticals (XENE) initiated with a Buy at Deutsche Bank; tgt $67

>>> US Gapping up

Gapping up
In reaction to earnings/guidance
:
  • LSCC +14.8%, CMP +10.6%, MYTE +7.5%, DD +7%, CINF +4.7%, DAC +4.3%, LDOS +3.7%, CRESY +2.8%, BRX +2%, KRC +2%, VNO +1.5%
Select steel and aluminum names showing strength:
  • CLF +3.2%, NUE +2.5%, CENX +1.9%, STLD +1.8%, AA +1.2%, X +1.1%, .
Other news:
  • SLQT +26.9% (signs $350 mln strategic investment)
  • ATEX +12.2% (engages Morgan Stanley as financial advisor to support a formal strategic review process after receiving inbound interest in the company)
  • HE +6.4% (confirmed Supreme Court decision relating to insurance subrogation claims in Maui Wildfire tort litigation)
  • GOLF +5.9% (replacing ROIC in the S&P SmallCap 600)
  • TVTX +5.8% (completes its Type C meeting with the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) and plans to submit a supplemental New Drug Application seeking traditional approval of FILSPARI for focal segmental glomerulosclerosis)
  • NVNI +3.8% (stock offering)
  • AGEN +3.1% (enters into license agreement with Incyte)
  • IONQ +2.3% (partners with General Dynamics)
  • BKSY +2.2% (establishes launch window with Rocket Lab)
Analyst comments:
  • COMP +5.1% (upgraded to Buy from Neutral at UBS)
  • FSLR +2.3% (upgraded to Outperform from Neutral at Mizuho)

>>> US Gapping down

Gapping down
In reaction to earnings/guidance
:
  • FLNC -37.3%, HLIT -25.8% (also announces $200 mln buyback plan), PETS -15%, AMKR -9.6%, CMCO -8.5% (also to acquire Kito Crosby Limited from KKR for $2.7 bln), ACLS -8.3%, SQNS -7.3%, MITK -6.5%, MEDP -6.1%, CXW -5.2%, ALAB -4.5%, WCC -3.7%, INSP -3.3% (also receives civil investigate demand), ARWR -3%, CG -2.9%, LZ -2.7% (also acquires Formation Nation), COTY -1.5%, VRTX -1% (also, COO to retire)
Other news:
  • THRD -25.8% (announces results from its Phase 1 single and multiple ascending dose clinical trial of THB335 in healthy volunteers)
  • SERA -10.1% (stock offering)
  • HLNE -3.8% (prices offering of by co and selling stockholder of 1,572,536 shares of Class A common stock for gross proceeds of ~$252 mln)
  • LTM -3.4% (Jan Traffic)
  • VYGR -3.2% (Provides Update on SOD1 ALS Gene Therapy Program)
  • MRP -3% (Completes Acquisition of Rausch Coleman Homes Land Assets)
  • HESM -2.8% (upsizes and prices offering of 11.0 mln shares of common stock at $39.45 per share)
  • WBA -2.2% (discloses commercial arbitration award update - federal court in Delaware upheld the Arbitration Award)
  • ALRM -1.3% (announces a majority-stake acquisition of CHeKT0
Analyst comments:
  • DVAX -5.2% (downgraded to Sell from Neutral at Goldman)
  • SNAP -1.8% (downgraded to Neutral from Buy at Guggenheim)
  • NET -1.7% (downgraded to Sell from Hold at DZ Bank)

The Information : OpenAI Board Will Reject Musk’s ‘Embarrassing’ Takeover Bid, C

OpenAI Board Will Reject Musk’s ‘Embarrassing’ Takeover Bid, CEO Says

Shortly after Elon Musk made a surprise $97 billion bid for OpenAI’s assets on Monday, its CEO Sam Altman told staff in a message that its board of directors intends to make clear it has no interest in Musk’s “supposed ‘bid’” and that the offer wasn’t in the interest of OpenAI’s mission to develop advanced artificial intelligence for all of humanity, according to a person who saw the message.

The letter indicates that OpenAI’s 10-person board is backing Altman in his fight against Musk’s monthslong effort to prevent the for-profit arm of OpenAI, which develops ChatGPT and other products, from getting out from under the control of OpenAI’s nonprofit by converting to a public benefit corporation. Musk is arguing that the nonprofit will be shortchanged by the conversion.

Altman rejected the offer on X earlier Monday, but it wasn’t clear if he was doing so with backing of the board. Nearly all of the directors joined after Altman was briefly fired, then rehired, by the nonprofit’s directors in late 2023.

Altman told staff about the board’s imminent rejection of Musk’s bid before he or the board saw an official offer letter from Musk, according to the message, and he referred to the effort as “just embarrassing to watch.”

Musk has sued OpenAI for allegedly defrauding him into making substantial donations to the nonprofit after cofounding it in 2015 with Altman and others. Altman and OpenAI have denied his charges. A U.S. district judge said in a hearing last week that she was leaning in favor of OpenAI in its initial defense against Musk’s effort to halt the planned conversion.

Altman launched OpenAI’s for-profit arm in 2019, with the nonprofit overseeing it. The for-profit arm later developed ChatGPT in 2022, and Musk started an OpenAI rival, xAI, in 2023.

In making his bid, Musk and a consortium of investors essentially placed a value on the nonprofit assets that’s higher than their theoretical current value.

Under the current structure, both the nonprofit and Microsoft, OpenAI’s largest outside shareholder, are in line to receive billions of dollars in profits if the company generates them. After the conversion, the nonprofit arm would end up with a stake of at least 25% in the corporation, The Information has reported, and Microsoft would also end up with a big stake.

OpenAI’s for-profit arm was valued at $150 billion in a financing last fall, which means the value of the nonprofit’s proposed stake following the conversion would be far less than what Musk is offering—even if the nonprofit got a 50% stake.

Musk’s team estimates that the nonprofit’s assets—control over the for-profit and rights to some of its future profits—is essentially equivalent to a 51% stake in the for-profit, meaning Musk is valuing the for-profit arm at about $190 billion. The for-profit arm is now in the midst of raising equity funding from SoftBank at a pre-investment valuation of $260 billion, but the deal hasn’t closed.

Last month, Musk’s lawyer sent a letter to the attorneys general in Delaware, where OpenAI is incorporated, and California, where it is based, arguing that OpenAI should auction off the nonprofit’s stake in the business to ensure the nonprofit is fairly compensated for the for-profit conversion. Monday’s bid could be another effort to get the attention of those state officials, who have so far not taken steps to stop the conversion.

If Musk succeeds in raising the potential market value of the nonprofit’s assets, it could dilute the value of stakes held by OpenAI’s investors in the for-profit arm, including Microsoft.

>>> US Research Calls I

Research Calls I
  • Upgrades:
    • Compass (COMP) upgraded to Buy from Neutral at UBS; tgt raised to $11
    • Monday.com (MNDY) upgraded to Overweight from Sector Weight at KeyBanc Capital Markets; tgt $420
    • Steel Dynamics (STLD) upgraded to Overweight from Sector Weight at KeyBanc Capital Markets; tgt $155
    • Super Micro Computer (SMCI) upgraded to Buy from Hold at CFRA; tgt $48
    • TXNM Energy (TXNM) upgraded to Outperform from In-line at Evercore ISI; tgt raised to $54
  • Downgrades:
    • Cloudflare (NET) downgraded to Sell from Hold at DZ Bank; tgt $145
    • Columbus McKinnon (CMCO) downgraded to Neutral from Buy at DA Davidson; tgt $35
    • Dynavax (DVAX) downgraded to Sell from Neutral at Goldman; tgt lowered to $12
    • Fluence (FLNC) downgraded to Sell from Buy at Guggenheim; tgt lowered to $6
    • Fluence (FLNC) downgraded to Market Perform from Outperform at BMO Capital Markets; tgt lowered to $10
    • First Solar (FSLR) upgraded to Outperform from Neutral at Mizuho; tgt raised to $259
    • Playa Hotels & Resorts (PLYA) downgraded to Hold from Buy at Deutsche Bank; tgt lowered to $13.50
    • Playa Hotels & Resorts (PLYA) downgraded to Perform from Outperform at Oppenheimer
    • Snap (SNAP) downgraded to Neutral from Buy at Guggenheim
    • TechTarget (TTGT) downgraded to Mkt Perform from Outperform at Raymond James
  • Others:
    • ACADIA Pharmaceuticals (ACAD) initiated with a Hold at Deutsche Bank; tgt $22
    • AZZ (AZZ) initiated with a Buy at ROTH MKM; tgt $108
    • Biogen (BIIB) initiated with a Mkt Perform at Bernstein; tgt $160
    • Biohaven (BHVN) initiated with a Buy at Deutsche Bank; tgt $65
    • Crinetics Pharmaceuticals (CRNX) initiated with a Buy at TD Cowen
    • Denali Therapeutics (DNLI) initiated with a Buy at Deutsche Bank; tgt $31
    • Domo (DOMO) initiated with an Overweight at Cantor Fitzgerald; tgt $11
    • Flex (FLEX) resumed with a Buy at Stifel; tgt $52
    • IBM (IBM) initiated with an Outperform at Oppenheimer; tgt $320
    • Praxis Precision Medicines (PRAX) initiated with a Buy at Deutsche Bank; tgt $111
    • Sarepta Therapeutics (SRPT) initiated with a Hold at Deutsche Bank; tgt $136
    • Silence Therapeutics (SLN) initiated with a Sell at Goldman; tgt $6
    • Sunrise Realty Trust (SUNS) initiated with an Outperform at Keefe Bruyette; tgt $12.75
    • TTM Tech (TTM) resumed with a Buy at Stifel; tgt $33
    • Waystar Holding Corp. (WAY) initiated with a Buy at Jefferies; tgt $51

WSJ : EU Pledges $200 Billion in AI Spending in Bid to Catch Up With U.S., China

EU Pledges $200 Billion in AI Spending in Bid to Catch Up With U.S., China
The announcement underscores efforts from the EU to position itself as a key player in the AI race

The European Union pledged to mobilize 200 billion euros ($206.15 billion) to invest in artificial intelligence as the bloc seeks to catch up with the U.S. and China in the race to train the most complex models.

European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said that the bloc wants to supercharge its ability to compete with the U.S. and China in AI. The plan—dubbed InvestAI—includes a new 20 billion-euro fund for so-called AI gigafactories, facilities that rely on powerful chips to train the most complex AI models.

“We want Europe to be one of the leading AI continents, and this means embracing a life where AI is everywhere,” von der Leyen said at the AI Action Summit in Paris.

The announcement underscores efforts from the EU to position itself as a key player in the AI race. The bloc has been lagging behind the U.S. and China since OpenAI’s 2022 release of ChatGPT ushered in a spending bonanza.

The EU pledge comes a month after Washington announced Stargate, an AI joint venture that aims to build data centers in the U.S. for OpenAI. OpenAI, SoftBank Group, Oracle and MGX are the initial equity funders in Stargate, while Arm, Microsoft and Nvidia are technology partners. The companies are committing $100 billion initially and plan to invest up to $500 billion over the next four years.

Meanwhile, Beijing has also made strides in the technology. Chinese company DeepSeek developed AI models that it said nearly matched American rivals despite using inferior chips, raising questions about the need to spend huge sums on advanced gear provided by Nvidia and other tech giants.

“Too often I hear that the EU is late to the race,” von der Leyen said, insisting it was “far from being over.”

The commission’s initial funding for InvestAI will come from existing EU programs, though member states can also contribute. InvestAI will include a layered fund, with shares of different risk and return profiles.

The EU is aiming to establish gigafactories to train the most complex and large AI models. Those facilities will be equipped with roughly 100,000 last-generation AI chips, around four times more than the number installed in the AI factories being set up right now.

The bloc in December selected several consortia to establish seven AI factories, with plans to announce another five soon. Von der Leyen said the InvestAI fund would finance AI gigafactories through a mix of grants and equity.

News Corp, owner of Dow Jones Newswires and The Wall Street Journal, has a content-licensing partnership with OpenAI.

>>> US Early premarket gappers

Early premarket gappers
  • Gapping up:
    • SLQT +34.7%, LSCC +14.8%, CMP +10.6%, ATSG +8.8%, MYTE +7.5%, DD +7%, GOLF +5.9%, NVNI +5.2%, CINF +4.7%, DAC +4.3%, CLF +4%, HE +3.7%, LDOS +3.7%, POWW +2.8%, STLD +2.8%, CRESY +2.8%, IONQ +2.7%, BKSY +2.5%, AGEN +2.5%, NUE +2.2%, BRX +2%, KRC +2%, X +1.6%, VNO +1.5%, CENX +1.4%, AA +1.2%, SYY +1.1%
  • Gapping down:
    • FLNC -37.3%, HLIT -25.8%, PETS -15%, AMKR -9.6%, CMCO -8.5%, ACLS -8.3%, SQNS -7.3%, MITK -6.5%, MEDP -6.1%, CXW -5.2%, ALAB -4.5%, MRP -4.3%, WCC -3.7%, SERA -3.6%, INSP -3.3%, HESM -3.1%, ARWR -3%, CG -2.9%, LZ -2.7%, UVV -2.2%, HLNE -1.5%, COTY -1.5%, VRTX -1%

TechCrunch : These are the investors funding Musk’s $97 billion OpenAI takeover

These are the investors funding Musk’s $97 billion OpenAI takeover attempt

As if Elon Musk doesn’t have enough going on, a consortium of investors led by him announced plans Monday for what appears to be a hostile takeover of OpenAI.

The investor group offered nearly $97.4 billion to buy all of OpenAI’s assets and is “prepared to consider matching or exceeding higher bids,” it said in a press release sent to TechCrunch.

OpenAI CEO Sam Altman isn’t having it. He immediately replied on X, “no thank you but we will buy twitter for $9.74 billion if you want.”

The consortium includes Baron Capital Group Inc., Valor Management LLC, Atreides Management, LP, Vy Fund III L.P., Emmanuel Capital Management LLC, and Eight Partners VC LLC.

While Emanuel Capital Management has a slimmer public profile, the others are firmly in Musk’s orbit.

Baron Capital Group, which manages multiple mutual funds, was founded by Ron Baron. The firm’s Baron Partners Fund, which he manages with his son Michael Baron, has large stakes in Tesla and SpaceX.

Atreides Management is associated with Boston-based hedge fund Atreides. As we previously reported, founder Gavin Baker spent 18 years at Fidelity where he made his first investment in SpaceX. Atreides has also invested in Tesla and Baker was a public supporter of Musk’s enormous Tesla pay package.

Valor Management was founded by Antonio Gracias, an early SpaceX investor and former Tesla board member. He was also an investor in Musk’s SolarCity before Tesla acquired it.

Vy Capital, founded by Alexander Tamas, also has a SpaceX stake and has invested in a number of other Musk companies like The Boring Company and Neuralink.

Eight Partners VC is better known as Joe Lonsdale’s firm 8VC, according to public filings. Lonsdale is a vocal fan of Musk and runs in similar circles. He recently appeared on CNBC calling himself “a huge fan” of Musk’s DOGE, an interview that Musk reposted on X.

It’s not yet clear how serious this group is. One plausible analysis floating around the internet is that this is as much trolling as offer. Some say this is Musk’s attempt to drive up the price that Altman’s team would have to pay to buy OpenAI’s underlying assets in order to restructure it from its original nonprofit status.

Musk was part of the founding of OpenAI as a nonprofit AI research organization and Musk has been attempting to halt Altman’s restructuring plans.

FT : Elon Musk gatecrashes OpenAI restructuring

Elon Musk gatecrashes OpenAI restructuring
The ongoing operatic rivalry between the billionaire and OpenAI chief Sam Altman remains a major subtext

One of the most complex deals in history was already in process. And then on Monday afternoon Elon Musk arrived. A Musk-led consortium said it would pay precisely $97.4bn for OpenAI, the artificial intelligence start-up. But the bounty is not for the operating business — it is for the non-profit vehicle that at present manages the OpenAI enterprise.

Musk’s rival Sam Altman — chief executive of OpenAI — is in the midst of a complicated negotiation to collapse the non-profit and for-profit entities into a single structure. Such a streamlining is ostensibly necessary to attract the further tens of billions of investment needed to build and commercialise the large language model. A current fundraising round is set to value OpenAI at $260bn.

In simpler times, a decade or so ago, the OpenAI non-profit/for-profit distinction was an idealistic nod, aiming to ensure that artificial intelligence was managed responsibly and “for the benefit of humanity”. But the technology turned out to be so good that the org chart was spoiling the value creation opportunity. Adding to the issue, Microsoft had invested $13bn in OpenAI but its profit stream was structured to be capped at a pre-specified return.

The form and the financing of the new bid from Musk and his co-investors — cash, stock, something else — is so far unknown. And the value he has ascribed is something like three times greater than what was expected to be paid for the non-profit piece of OpenAI.

The profit-seeking OpenAI enterprise is structured as a limited liability company that does not come with traditional fiduciary duties attached. The non-profit arm, which has raised more than $100mn in donations, is supposed to uphold its mission and its board members include the likes of economist Lawrence Summers and dealmaker Adebayo Ogunlesi.

The ongoing operatic rivalry between Musk and Altman remains a major subtext. Musk had been involved in OpenAI in its early days and stands to make money when the non-profit is bought out. He also has his own AI venture, xAI, which makes his obsession with OpenAI — including a previously filed lawsuit about the restructuring — look curious.

Given the LLC and non-profit status of the OpenAI entities, they do not have to engage with the Musk bid, or any other that they may receive, if they do not wish to. Altman, for his part, responded tartly on X on Monday, that he would instead be willing to buy X from Musk for $9.74bn, a tenth of the Musk OpenAI offer and a fraction of the $44bn Musk paid for Twitter.

Coming to a deal on the OpenAI restructuring was never going to be simple. Musk’s gatecrashing at a minimum will now add a bright spotlight on the negotiations and, specifically, how much of a hard bargain the non-profit is going to drive.