Closing Stock Market Summary
The stock market exhibited extreme turbulence on the first session of the week on above-average volume. The S&P 500 (-0.2%), which traded in bear market territory (i.e., 20% below its recent peak) near its worst level of the session, swung more than 400 points between its intraday high and low. The index was down 4.7% shortly after the open and surged 3.4% at its high.
The Nasdaq Composite, down more than 800 points at its low, closed 0.1% higher thanks to rebound action in mega caps and chipmakers.
The initial bounce off session lows coincided with an erroneous report that NEC Director Kevin Hassett said President Trump is considering a 90-day pause on the tariffs, except for China. The White House called the report fake news, and President Trump later indicated that the U.S. will impose an additional 50% tariff on imports from China, starting Wednesday, if China does not withdraw its 34% tariff on U.S. imports.
Selling increased in response, but major indices remained well above their worst levels of the session. One factor keeping equity indices elevated relative to session lows was the reversal in the Treasury market.
Market rates have been sinking on safe-haven interest of late, but the 10-yr yield jumped 17 basis points today to 4.16% and the 2-yr yield rose six basis points to 3.73%.
- Dow Jones Industrial Average: -10.8% YTD
- S&P 500: -13.9% YTD
- S&P Midcap 400: -16.1% YTD
- Russell 2000: -18.8% YTD
- Nasdaq Composite: -19.2% YTD
Today's economic data was limited to consumer credit, which decreased by $0.8 billion in February (consensus $15.1 billion) after increasing by a downwardly revised $8.9 billion (from $18.1 billion) in January.
- The key takeaway from the report is that February marked the third contraction in consumer credit in the last four months.
L’éditorial de Jacques-Olivier Martin: «Trump écoutera-t-il Musk sur les droits de douane?»
Alors que la panique gagne les marchés, le patron de Tesla a plaidé pour un accord de libre-échange total avec l’Europe. Bruxelles défend la même stratégie.
Les Bourses asiatiques qui s’effondrent au petit matin, les places européennes qui dévissent à leur tour, Wall Street qui chancelle un peu plus tard… Des milliers de milliards d’euros de capitalisation boursière effacés en une journée. Donald Trump a provoqué lundi une panique boursière, conséquence directe de ses droits de douane réciproques sur toutes les importations.
Ce choc planétaire ne présage rien de bon. Dans une économie mondialisée, où un même produit peut traverser cinq frontières avant d’être achevé, taxer, c’est désorganiser les chaînes de valeur, renchérir les coûts, plomber la compétitivité. À court terme, on le voit, les marchés vacillent sur fond d’incertitudes, et les représailles se multiplient. À moyen terme, les échanges vont ralentir, les usines, souffrir. Et, plus tard encore, c’est l’innovation qui reculera, les économies qui s’appauvriront. François Bayrou avance un demi-point de croissance en moins pour la France si l’Amérique persiste. La BCE redoute jusqu’à 0,8 point de PIB perdu pour l’Europe.
Jusqu’à quand Donald Trump pourra-t-il résister à la pression des marchés ? : http://www.lefigaro.fr/conjoncture/jusqu-a-quand-donald-trump-pourra-t-il-resister-a-la-pression-des-marches-20250407
Mais le président américain ne veut rien entendre, en tout cas pour le moment. « Ne soyez pas faibles, ne soyez pas stupides », a lancé lundi Donald Trump avant l’ouverture des Bourses américaines, comme s’il avait toutes les cartes en main. Il peut certes stopper son offensive douanière, mais il ne maîtrise pas les réactions des pays qu’il attaque. La Chine, par exemple, s’est engagée dans le bras de fer en érigeant à son tour des barrières contre les biens américains.
Quant à l’Europe, elle cherche l’équilibre entre fermeté et ouverture : des contre-mesures sont programmées, mais Bruxelles propose aussi de supprimer tous les droits de douane sur les produits manufacturés entre les deux rives de l’Atlantique. Une porte de sortie raisonnable, gagnante pour tous ceux qui croient encore que le commerce sans barrière crée plus de richesse qu’il n’en détruit.
En se prononçant dimanche pour un accord de libre-échange total entre l’Europe et les États-Unis, Elon Musk, son conseiller très écouté, n’a pas dit autre chose. Est-ce que cela suffira à convaincre Donald Trump ? « Ne soyez pas stupide, Monsieur le Président », pourrait lui glisser le patron de Tesla…
Trump Orders New Review of Nippon-U.S. Steel Merger
White House says the review is meant to assist the president in determining whether further action would be appropriate
President Trump ordered a new national security review of Nippon Steel’s 5401 -7.05%decrease; red down pointing triangle plan to acquire U.S. Steel X 16.13%increase; green up pointing triangle, offering a new life for a $14 billion deal that was blocked by former President Joe Biden.
The White House on Monday said a fresh look conducted by the Committee on Foreign Investment in the U.S. would help the president determine whether further action would be appropriate. The review gives the administration the flexibility to craft an agreement that could allow the companies to complete a deal.
Nippon Steel said that “an objective, fact-based review of our proposed partnership with U.S. Steel will show that it strengthens American economic and national security so that U.S. Steel remains a proud American company.”
U.S. Steel shares surged 16% in afternoon trading.
The blockbuster deal, which would shift the storied U.S. steelmaker to a much-larger Japanese steel company, has been in limbo since President Trump took office earlier this year.
Biden blocked the merger in January, citing national security concerns after an earlier Cfius review. Nippon Steel and U.S. Steel are challenging the decision in federal appeals court, arguing that the deal wasn’t given fair consideration by the Biden administration.
“We appreciate and commend President Donald Trump’s leadership,” U.S. Steel said. “His action today validates our board’s bold decision to challenge President Biden’s unlawful order.”
The new Cfius review will be conducted de novo, meaning it won’t be bound by previous decisions, according to the White House.
Nippon Steel and U.S. Steel struck their deal in December 2023, following a monthslong bidding process conducted by the Pittsburgh-based company. U.S. Steel shareholders approved the sale of the company a year ago, though the United Steelworkers union has opposed it.
For Nippon Steel, acquiring U.S. Steel would provide an entry point to the U.S. steel sector, where prices have been higher than many overseas markets. Nippon Steel has struggled for years in its home market with falling steel demand and anemic prices.
Both Trump and Biden had opposed the deal over the past year. Since taking office, though, Trump has encouraged Nippon Steel and U.S. Steel to restructure their deal so that the Japanese company would invest in the U.S. steelmaker, without fully owning it.
Nippon Steel executives said they would discuss options with the U.S. government, but that large capital expenditures would only be possible if the Japanese firm could invest in equity. Nippon Steel has said that a joint venture with U.S. Steel wasn’t appealing, since that would limit the Japanese company from fully deploying its technology and operational strategies.
“Regardless of how much scrutiny the proposed USS-Nippon deal receives, it does not alter the urgent threat it poses to our national and economic security, the long-term future of the steel industry or our members’ jobs,” said Dave McCall, president of the United Steelworkers.
By launching another review of the deal the Trump administration would be able to fashion its own security agreement with Nippon Steel. A second review also would help the Trump Justice Department defend the companies’ allegations that the deal wasn’t given adequate consideration, analysts said.
“I think this is more pro-Nippon than negative,” said Elena McGovern, managing director for Washington-based Capstone, a national security and business policy consulting firm.
Diageo swaps Cîroc vodka for LeBron James-backed tequila brand
Drinks group offloads the rights to a struggling brand at the heart of its dispute with Sean Combs
Diageo has swapped a majority share of Cîroc vodka, one of the brands at the centre of a legal dispute with rap mogul Sean Combs, for a tequila brand backed by basketball star LeBron James.
The London-listed group on Monday said it had formed a joint venture with celebrity investor and advisory firm Main Street Advisors, with Diageo taking a majority stake in its tequila and mezcal brand Lobos 1707 in exchange for the rights to Cîroc in North America.
Diageo was reportedly looking to sell Cîroc following the termination of its partnership with Combs, who is also known as Diddy.
The rapper-turned-entrepreneur sued Diageo in 2023 for allegedly neglecting Cîroc and DeLeón, a tequila brand the two sides acquired in 2014, because of his race.
Diageo said at the time that Combs had failed to meet his promises to fund DeLeón and it had “tried for years to salvage the broken relationship”.
Last year the two parties settled the dispute just as it was about to proceed to a public trial. Combs has since been charged with sex trafficking. He denies the charges.
Main Street Advisors helps manage the fortunes of celebrities such as Arnold Schwarzenegger, Billy Eilish and James, who plays for the Los Angeles Lakers. James and his business manager, Maverick Carter, co-founded Lobos 1707 with actor Diego Osorio and Paul Wachter, chief executive of Main Street Advisors.
Diageo, which also counts Johnny Walker scotch and Guinness stout among its stable of brands, will keep the rights to Cîroc in the rest of the world.
Diageo’s North America chief Sally Grimes said: “The Main Street Advisors track record speaks for itself and together, we will establish a strong platform to unleash the full potential of the Cîroc brand for new generations and to drive the next phase of growth for Lobos 1707.”
Sales of Cîroc had plummeted in recent years. In 2024, its net sales slumped 26 per cent, making it the group’s worst performing key brand globally.
Diageo chief executive Debra Crew is under pressure to boost financial performance as the FTSE 100 company battles stagnant alcohol sales, amid a global slowdown in consumer spending and a growing trend for moderation.
Investors have called on Crew to set a clearer direction for the group, as they grow frustrated with promises of a recovery that is yet to materialise.
At its last trading update, in February, the drinks maker scrapped a long-standing sales growth target, blaming uncertainty over US tariffs and weak demand in important markets.
Diageo has been steadily offloading underperforming brands over the past year, including Venezuelan rum Pampero and Dutch liqueur Safari, as well as a number of its African brewing operations.
Bill Ackman’s main fund drops 15% this year as he criticises Donald Trump’s policies
Billionaire’s Pershing Square Holdings hit by US president’s trade war
Shares in billionaire Bill Ackman’s main investment vehicle have fallen 15 per cent this year as Donald Trump’s trade war hits the portfolio of one of his most ardent Wall Street backers.
The drop in Pershing Square Holdings, Ackman’s London-listed investment trust, comes as the financier has turned sour on some of the US president’s policies in a major public reversal. The trust’s share price fell more than 3 per cent on Monday.
“If . . . on April ninth we launch economic nuclear war on every country in the world, business investment will grind to a halt, consumers will close their wallets and pocket books, and we will severely damage our reputation with the rest of the world that will take years and potentially decades to rehabilitate,” he said on X on Sunday.
Fewer than 100 days into Trump’s second term, the unravelling of the financial markets has pummelled many of Ackman’s biggest bets, leaving his investment trust nursing large losses.
The billionaire’s investment trust holdings in Nike, Mexican-style fast-food chain Chipotle, asset manager Brookfield and Alphabet have taken the biggest hits since the start of the year. They were all down more than 20 per cent by late afternoon in London trading on Monday.
Alphabet and Brookfield were two of Ackman’s biggest positions in the trust at the end of last year, worth almost $2bn and $1.8bn, respectively, according to the company’s annual report.
As of last Monday, Pershing Square’s underlying investments, also known as the vehicle’s net asset value, were down 1.2 per cent for the year, based on the firm’s public disclosures. It had reported no hedging positions entering last week’s market plunge.
But Ackman is not the only casualty of Trump’s trade war among prominent Wall Street investors.
Fellow billionaire hedge fund manager Dan Loeb, another critic of the tariffs on X, has seen shares in his publicly listed fund Third Point fall almost 10 per cent since the start of the year. The fund’s net asset value was down 1.4 per cent for the year as of last Wednesday before US equities markets plunged on Trump’s so-called liberation day tariff announcements.
Ackman also pleaded with the president to institute a 90-day “time out” to negotiate “unfair asymmetric tariff deals” on X on Sunday.
Later on the same day, he lashed out at US commerce secretary Howard Lutnick, who has said he is a strong supporter of the tariffs on live TV, alleging that he and his company Cantor Fitzgerald profit “when our economy implodes”.
On Monday he backtracked, stating it was “unfair” to criticise Lutnick. Ackman said on X that he was “sure [Lutnick] is doing the best he can for the country”, but suggested that Trump was “not an economist” and was relying on tariff calculations by his advisers that were made in error.
Ackman was a vigorous Trump supporter on the campaign trail and in his early presidency when he said the incoming administration would be one of the most “pro-business” in American history.
As Trump was ascending in the polls last year, Ackman was working to raise a $25bn US-based investment fund, a precursor to taking his hedge fund Pershing Square Capital public.
But Ackman was forced to shelve those plans, leaving him to manage the about $16bn he manages mostly through his London-listed investment trust.
Not all parts of Ackman’s portfolio have taken a hit. His investments in government-backed mortgage sponsors Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, which Ackman believes Trump’s administration will privatise and fuel their market value, were up 60 per cent and 32 per cent, respectively.
Pershing Square declined to comment.
An anonymous Twitter account sent markets reeling today
Journalists really need bulletproof BS meters right now
Monday’s trading action was bizarre in many ways.
But one specific mystery — about a misleading headline that sent stocks ping-ponging all over the place — highlights just how fragmented and expensive access to breaking financial news can be, even at times when it really matters to retail investors.
The US stock market did indeed go bananas this morning, thanks to a headline that falsely* claimed White House adviser Kevin Hassett had said President Donald Trump was considering a 90-day pause in tariffs.
CNBC anchors read out the headline on air, as they tried to explain why markets had started to soar. In all, the S&P 500 rallied nearly 6 per cent from where it had been trading right before the mystery headline.
The White House said within the hour that no one knew about this supposed plan, a rare chance to properly use the term “Fake News”. Stocks sold off by the same amount they’d rallied, and then see-sawed around for a while. By mid-afternoon they were basically flat for the day.
So where exactly did the headline come from? That’s a tougher question to answer than you’d think.
The obvious point of contagion was the Walter Bloomberg account, using the X handle @DeItaone (with a capital I instead of an “L”) which says it’s based in Switzerland.
This is not a guy named Walter Bloomberg, nor does he write for Bloomberg. The account’s entire deal is just reposting financial newswire headlines.
Here’s the post via a screengrab (since the account has since deleted the post). As you can see, it came at 10:13am, and really made the rounds within the next 30 minutes or so, thanks to the account’s ~848,000 followers:
So did someone posting as “Walter Bloomberg” make up a headline to save the market? To cash out? Or just to introduce some chaos into the day? If so, it’d be a little strange for the account to keep posting! Mostly because that type of thing seems . . . actionable. It also seems like it’d be a bad idea for the account to attract this type of scrutiny.
As we said, it basically just copies financial breaking-news headlines from newswires, and those wires often come with an extremely pricey subscription. If Hassett had done an exclusive interview about major US policy decisions — he did not, probably* — only a major financial news service would’ve been able get that exclusive access.
The newswires don’t just offer one uniform news feed, either. While we aren’t 100% up to speed on the latest business models, some newswires have been known to deliver news feeds to different subscribers at different speeds. This is reasonable, to an extent, because not all professional subscribers can use the same level of access.
So it does seem possible that some experimental headline-writing product (or a budget subscription) published a bad headline that was then picked up by the Walter Bloomberg account.
There’s also one less-than-obvious analogue with reality that could’ve been misinterpreted by an overzealous headline writer or (ahem) LLM. In a Fox & Friends interview, National Economic Council director Kevin Hassett stalled by saying “yep” before saying “the President is going to decide what the President is going to decide.”
This was obviously not confirmation, especially because he then argued that observers are overreacting to the tariffs news. Another problem with that explanation is that the interview happened nearly two hours before @DeItaone published the headline.
Whoever’s running the account isn’t helping to solve the mystery, either.
When asked by followers, it cited both Reuters and CNBC as the sources of the headline. Remember, though, the CNBC anchors seemed to be reading his post! One of his screengrabbed sources shows a Reuters newswire headline. But that was from 10:23am, and cites CNBC:
Now, it’s not great if CNBC flashed a headline because one of their anchors read a social-media post that turned out to be nonsense. In their defence, however, markets had already started to take off before they read it!
So it’s starting to look like the main thing we’ve learned today is the influence of the @DeItaone account and its ~849,000 followers. Are that many traders really following an aggregator to save money? Or are markets just so hyperresponsive that even an X Anon can cause a 6-per-cent swing?
Things get even weirder.
An account called Hammer Capital posted the same headline at 10:11am. That’s before the post from Walter Bloomberg, or CNBC, or any other sources we’ve found. Hammer Capital’s been on X since March 2021, and we’re including a screengrab of his post below, in case it’s deleted:
We’ve contacted both him and the “Walter Bloomberg” account for comment. That was through DMs, though, so it’s unclear whether we’ll have much success.
We’ve also contacted Reuters. They haven’t responded, but did publish an “ADVISORY-Story withdrawn on Hassett’s comments on tariff pause”. In that retraction, Reuters said it originally published the story because of CNBC. We’ve contacted CNBC for comment as well, and will update with anything we hear.
Anyway, the market has been zigzagging all over the place since this morning. That’s presumably because some traders think the US President can be swayed by market reactions to fake news.
Or, as the @Quantian account puts it:
So we bounced 8% on a fake headline, sold off when people realized it was fake, and then bounced again when it occurred to people that if we bounced that much on a fake headline imagine how much we’d bounce on a hypothetical real one.
*The original headline’s accuracy could, of course, change entirely at any moment, at the whims of one man. How fun!
BlackRock’s Larry Fink warns US economy is ‘weakening as we speak’
Head of world’s biggest asset manager says market ructions are ‘impacting Main Street’
Larry Fink said the US economy was “weakening as we speak”, warning the market ructions triggered by Donald Trump’s tariffs were rippling across corporate America.
The head of BlackRock, the world’s biggest asset manager, told a gathering of chief executives and investors in New York that there was “a real downturn” developing in several sectors and that “more and more people were pausing and slowing down consumption”.
“When you see a 20 per cent market decline in three days obviously it has significant impacts and the ripple effects of the potential of tariffs is going to be long-standing,” Fink said. “The market is impacting Main Street.”
His comments come as investors grapple with a sell-off that has sheared trillions of dollars off of global equity valuations. Wall Street’s S&P 500 share index shed 10.5 per cent last Thursday and Friday alone, and swung violently at the start of this week as traders assessed the president’s plans to hit trading partners with steep levies.
The aggressive market pullback — the S&P 500 has fallen 17.3 per cent from its February high — has sparked a wave of margin calls on hedge funds, as traders stump up money or face being stopped out of their positions.
“Markets are down 20 per cent, some stocks are down 30, 40 per cent from their high water marks from January,” he said. “But in the long run this is more of a buying opportunity than a selling opportunity. That doesn’t mean we can’t fall another 20 per cent from here too.”
Fink’s comments at the Economic Club of New York prompted audible gasps from the audience. Many financiers have watched as shares of their investment groups have slumped since Trump’s ‘liberation day’ speech, as investors fret over a looming recession, lower profitability and the potential for corporate defaults. BlackRock’s shares have fallen 25 per cent from their all-time high in January.
Fink said he was troubled that the US was destabilising markets globally and that he saw “zero chance” the Federal Reserve would cut interest rates as investors were currently pricing, given the inflationary pressures developing.
“I’m concerned about inflation if all the proposed tariffs truly go into place,” he said.
Fink also declined to say if he believed in a so-called ‘Trump put’, which would entail the president reversing tariffs if markets continued to sink. “I don’t know how to value that.”