(BofA-ML) The Flow Show

BofA “Flow Show” – Key Points (Aug 15, 2025)
  • Macro & Policy Backdrop
    • 88 global central bank rate cuts YTD – fastest easing cycle since 2020.
    • Market expects Fed to join, potentially pushing DXY <90 → USD secular bear theme into 2026.
    • Fed policy debate: higher inflation target, yield curve control, gold revaluation – policy disruption = debasement.
  • Asset Allocation Trends
    • YTD leaders: Bitcoin +27.5%, Gold +27.2%, Europe equities +25.7%, IG bonds +8.6%, HY bonds +8.2%, USD -9.8%, Oil -12.6%.
    • Flows: $33bn to cash, $26.4bn to stocks, $25.9bn to bonds, $4.5bn to crypto, $2.6bn to gold.
    • Massive inflows into IG bonds ($349bn YTD, 2nd biggest year ever) and equities ($576bn YTD).
  • Positioning & Sentiment
    • BofA Bull & Bear Indicator at 6.1 (Neutral): strong equity breadth & inflows offset by bearish HF positioning (long 2y USTs).
    • Private clients: 64% in equities, 18% bonds, 11% cash; overweight Magnificent 7; recent buys in MLPs, bank loans, HY bonds; selling staples, REITs, energy ETFs.
  • Trade Themes
    • Sell USD: weak dollar supports gold, crypto, EM.
    • Energy Bearish medium-term: oil/gas -41% since March; Trump-Russia Arctic cooperation could push prices lower into 2026.
    • Equities: S&P 500 P/B at record 5.3x; P/E 95–98th percentile → “It better be different this time” risk.
    • Gold & Crypto: still under-owned (gold avg 2.2% AUM, crypto 0.3%) – potential upside as debasement hedges.
  • Overbought Signals
    • EM & Japan equities, gold, silver, platinum significantly above 200DMA.
    • Oil & natural gas oversold.

Trading Takeaway:
BofA is leaning into USD weakness, gold/crypto/EM longs, selective equity upside (but stretched valuations), and short/underweight energy in medium term. Strong inflow momentum in credit and equities, but high sentiment readings suggest risk of “buy rumor, sell fact” post-Jackson Hole.

>>> Europe : Brokers Upgrades & Downgrades - 15th of August 2025

>>> Up
* Autostore Raised to Buy at Pareto Securities; PT 12 kroner
* BAT PT Raised to 3,000 pence from 2,650 pence at Morgan Stanley
* Do & Co PT Raised to 250 euros from 225 euros at Berenberg
* Deutsche PBB Raised to Add at AlphaValue/Baader
* Endomines Finland Raised to Reduce at Inderes; PT 25.50 euros
* GE Aerospace PT Raised to $343 from $254 at Bernstein
* Netcompany Raised to Buy at Nordea; PT 305 kroner
* Talanx PT Raised to 138 euros from 125 euros at Berenberg

>>> Down
* Bioretec Cut to Accumulate at Inderes; PT 1.70 euros
* Cava Group PT Cut to $120 from $148 at CFRA
* Cisco Cut to Hold at HSBC; PT $69
* Eurocash Cut to Neutral at Citi; PT 9.50 zloty
* LeadDesk Cut to Accumulate at Inderes; PT 8.50 euros
* Technip Energies Cut to Neutral at Rothschild & Co Redburn

>>> Initiation


>>> Call
* NKT May Outperform Following Guidance Upgrade, JPMorgan Says

>>> Stoxx 600 Pre-Market Indications

  • Embracer (TH92 TH) +2.9%
  • Rolls-Royce (RRU TH) +2.6%
  • Sanofi (SNW TH) +1.3%
  • Intesa Sanpaolo (IES TH) +1%
  • Fresnillo (FNL TH) +0.8%
  • Safran (SEJ1 TH) +0.8%
  • Vinci (SQU TH) +0.7%
  • UniCredit (CRIN TH) +0.7%
  • Telefonica (TNE5 TH) -0.6%
  • STMicro (SGM TH) -0.7%
  • Iberdrola (IBE1 TH) -0.7%
  • Infineon (IFX TH) -0.8%
  • BE Semiconductor (BSI TH) -0.8%
  • Adyen (1N8 TH) -0.8%
  • Sydbank (TM2 TH) -0.9%
  • ASML (ASME TH) -2%

>>> TradeGate Pre-Market Indications

DAX:
  • Zalando (ZAL TH) +0.9%
  • Rheinmetall (RHM TH) +0.7%
  • Commerzbank (CBK TH) +0.7%
  • Adidas (ADS TH) +0.7%
  • Siemens Energy (ENR TH) +0.6%
MDAX:
  • K+S (SDF TH) +1.7%
  • Evonik (EVK TH) +1.4%
  • IONOS Group SE (IOS TH) +1%
  • Aixtron (AIXA TH) +0.8%
  • RENK Group (R3NK TH) +0.6%
SDAX:
  • Borussia Dortmund (BVB TH) +1%
  • Deutsche PBB (PBB TH) +0.9%
    • Deutsche PBB Raised to Add at AlphaValue/Baader
  • Deutz (DEZ TH) +0.7%
  • Dermapharm (DMP TH) -0.5%
  • AlzChem Group AG (ACT TH) -0.5%
  • PNE AG (PNE3 TH) -0.7%
  • Formycon (FYB TH) -0.8%

>>> 13F Q2 – New Positions Highlights

13F Q2 – New Positions Highlights
• Healthcare in focus – UNH added by BRK (5.04M), Lone Pine (1.69M), Eminence, Scopia, Burry, Hound; other flow into REGN, TMO, IQV, MASI.
• Tech inflows – NVDA (SRS 2.7M), MSFT, META, GOOG, WIX, AMD, PDD (Himalaya 4.61M).
• Travel/leisure bid – TRIP (Starboard 8.5M), BKNG (Lone Pine), DIS (Viking 5.85M), DKS, MTN, RH.
• Energy/commodities – EQT, RRC, FSLR, NUE, APD w/ multi-fund interest (Lone Pine, Peconic, Discovery).
• Event-driven / financials – COOP (Third Point, ValueAct), HPE (Elliott 18.63M), AMZN (Pershing 5.82M), UBS, PNC, GS.
Largest new disclosed stakes:
TRIP 8.5M (Starboard) | HPE 18.63M (Elliott) | INTC 8M (Appaloosa) | NVDA 2.7M (SRS) | DIS 5.85M (Viking) | AMZN 5.82M (Pershing).
Takeaway: Broad HC accumulation, big-cap tech remains core, selective cyclical & travel exposure; pockets of event-driven positioning.

>>> 13F Filing - New Buys

- Third Point (Dan Loeb) : New positions in: RKT (4.75 mln shares), FLS (1.2 mln), COOP (0.93 mln), SABR (0.75 mln), DOCU (0.63 mln), DHR (0.5 mln), WDAY (0.3 mln), GTLS (0.22 mln), FIX (0.19 mln)

- Starboard Value (Jeffrey Smith) : New positions in: TRIP (8.5 mln shares), IWM (0.34 mln)

- Lone Pine : New: EQT (7.52 mln shares), BN (5.62 mln), WIX (2.16 mln), UNH (1.69 mln), BKNG (0.06 mln)

- Berkshire Hathaway (Warren Buffett) : New: LEN (7.05 mln shares), NUE (6.61 mln), UNH (5.04 mln), DHI (1.49 mln), LAMR (1.17 mln), ALLE (0.78 mln)

- Corvex Management (Keith Meister) : New: QSR (873K), ORCL (100K)

- Eminence Capital (Ricky Sandler) : New positions in: PTON (16.24 mln shares), CPNG (6.84 mln), WBD (6.21 mln), JHX (3.1 mln), JEF (1.46 mln), SXT (1.01 mln), UNH (575K), FRPT (339K), FND (154K), MTN (91K), META (55K)

- Appaloosa (David Tepper) : New: INTC (8 mln shares), GT (0.86 mln), RTX (0.59 mln), DAL (0.55 mln), UAL (0.55 mln), IQV (0.3 mln), WHR (0.27 mln), MHK (0.07 mln)

- Scopia Capital : New: LIVN (814K), MNKD (695K), AL (208K), BATRK (187K), ENTG (162K), TSM (122K), LESL (98K), BIO (95K), MBLY (80K), UNH (78K)

- SRS Investment : New: NVDA (2.7 mln shares), CLS (867K), WWW (208K), MSFT (76K), ALGN (75K), CAI (50K), LAD (9K)

- Peconic Partners (William Harnisch) : New positions: XLU (1 mln shares), RRC (800K), EQT (480K), FSLR (300K), GOOGL (180K), NXT (10K)

- Tiger Global : New positions in: CHYM (12.47 mln shares), BULL (11.72 mln), HNGE (552K), CRCL (125K), ETOR (80K), TFIN (44K), MNTN (20K)

- Engaged Capital (Glenn Welling) : New positions in: FRPT (0.62 mln shares)

- Soros Capital : New positions: EWY (229K), SMH (113K), MU (86K), WDC (81K), STX (37K), TRU (19K), AEO (18K), RRX (6K), HD (4K)

- Discovery Capital Management (Rob Citrone) : New positions: QXO (2.4 mln shares), YPF (866K), NU (606K), JBS (418K), CLS (366K), AR (288K), RRC (274K), COF (242K), PRMB (225K), EQT (214K), CORZ (198K), VNM (175K), JPM (167K), CTRN (153K), VVV (109K), EXE (106K), VIK (100K), VOYG (100K)

- ValueAct (Jeffrey Ubben and Bradley Singer): New: RDFN (5.81 mln shares), CCCS (2.88 mln), SSD (1.41 mln), COOP (0.9 mln), MDB (0.69 mln), CBRE (0.59 mln)

- Gates Foundation Trust :

- Scion Asset Management (Michael Burry) : New: BRKR (250K), LULU (50K - also has calls), UNH (20K - also has calls), REGN (15K - also has calls), MELI (3K)

- Pershing Square (Bill Ackman) : New: AMZN (5.82 mln shares)

- Soros Fund (George Soros) : New: ETWO (4.9 mln shares), AVDX (2.08 mln), ARMK (1.55 mln), SRAD (1.02 mln), BRO (1 mln), AACT (900K), SHLS (610K), SNDK (527K), IEF (500K), IDA (406K), CTRI (400K), AMRZ (390K), TPG (336K), JBTM (330K), SMA (328K), GLXY (311K), CRCL (305K), ECVT (287K), BPMC (250K), GOGL (250K), SKX (250K), SLDE (250K), GGAL (228K), LWACU (200K), JCI (164K), ETOR (160K), TSM (125K), CWAN (125K), MRX (124K), AHL (120K)

- Stadium Capital : New: DKS (35K)

- Impactive Capital : New: WMS (1.66 mln shares)

- Himalaya Capital (Li Lu) : New: PDD (4.61 mln shares)

- Hound Partners (Jonathan Auerbach) : New: SE (500K), ONON (250K), GIII (126K), AAPL (123K), GS (80K), ICLR (75K), FI (33K), OS (30K), TTAN (20K), UNH (13K)

- Glenview Capital (Larry Robbins and Mark Horowitz) : New: SGRY (1.53 mln shares), EYE (813K), DKS (291K), COO (281K), MKSI (232K), ON (174K), IQV (100K), TMO (100K), RH (66K), DHR (50K)

- Elliott Management (Paul Singer) : New: HPE (18.63 mln shares), HYG (3.8 mln)

- Paulson & Co (John Paulson) : New: JNPR (250K shares), GOOG (9K)

- Trian Fund (Nelson Peltz) : /

- Viking Global (Andreas Halvorsen) : New: DIS (5.85 mln shares), XYZ (5.42 mln), RAL (5.3 mln - FTV spin out), CART (3.75 mln), CSGP (3.22 mln), TTD (2.67 mln), UBS (2.58 mln), PNC (2.38 mln), APD (2.15 mln), AMD (1.9 mln), AIG (1.8 mln), JCI (1.5 mln), SAIA (828K), MASI (767K), CME (597K), LLY (417K), ESTA (343K), MOH (267K), HQY (220K), BLK (195K)

>>> Paulson & Co (John Paulson) discloses updated portfolio positions in 13F fil

Paulson & Co (John Paulson) discloses updated portfolio positions in 13F filing: New JNPR GOOG positions
Highlights from Q2 2025 filing as compared to Q1 2025 (all amounts are approximate):
  • New: JNPR (250K shares), GOOG (9K)
  • Increased: PPTA (to 32.35 mln shares from 24.77 mln shares), BHC (to 32.79 mln from 26.44 mln)
  • Maintained: THM (70.24 mln shares), NG (27.24 mln shares), AAMI (8.95 mln shares), THRY (4.28 mln shares), MDGL (2.09 mln shares), SA (2.07 mln shares), AEM (784K), HON (200K)
  • Exited: ITCI (from 22K shares)

>>> Trian Fund (Nelson Peltz) discloses updated portfolio positions in 13F filin

Trian Fund (Nelson Peltz) discloses updated portfolio positions in 13F filing: Boosted FERG holding, Confirms lowered IVZ holding, Maintained JHG WEN SOLV GE holdings
Highlights from Q2 2025 filing as compared to Q1 2025 (all amounts are approximate):
  • Increased positions in: FERG (to 1.09 mln shares from 1.01 mln shares)
  • Maintained positions in: JHG (31.9 mln shares), WEN (30.4 mln shares), SOLV (8.5 mln shares), GE (4.0 mln shares)
  • Decreased positions in: IVZ (to 14.63 mln shares from 23.17 mln shares), UHAL.B (to 338K from 1.1 mln), UHAL (to 353K from 652K), ALL (to 100K from 318K)