>>> US Early premarket gappers

Early premarket gappers
  • Gapping up:
    • KVUE +8.2%, QGEN +4.2%, SMHI +4.1%, XEL +2%, SO +2%, DLTR +1.4%, DG +1%
  • Gapping down:
    • BHVN -9.6%, BEEP -9.2%, RILY -8.5%, CANG -7.2%, IBRX -7.1%, HUT -6.8%, CIFR -6.2%, RYTM -5.8%, LENZ -5.6%, VZLA -5.3%, SHEL -5.2%, HIVE -5%, BEAM -4.5%, MRNA -4.1%, DK -3.8%, NMAX -3.8%, NIO -3.8%, UFPT -3.6%, IWM -2.9%, PAC -2.3%, AVXL -2.3%, RTX -2.2%, MT -2.2%, QQQ -2.1%, DIA -2.1%, SPY -2%, META -1.9%, LLY -1.9%, DOCN -1.7%, PSA -1.3%

>>> Europe : Brokers Upgrades & Downgrades - 7th of April 2025 V2(+)

>>> Up
* Alfen Raised to Buy at Van Lanschot Kempen; PT 16.50 euros
* Bank of America Raised to Overweight at Morgan Stanley; PT $47
* Embracer Raised to Buy at Kepler Cheuvreux (+)
* HelloFresh Raised to Buy at Kepler Cheuvreux (+)
* Holmen Raised to Buy at Danske Bank Markets; PT 430 kronor (++)
* Indra PT Raised to 36.50 euros from 33.40 euros at BofA (++)
* Mondi Raised to Equal-Weight at Barclays; PT 1,100 pence
* Nokia Raised to Accumulate at OP Corporate Bank; PT 4.90 euros (++)
* Nordnet Raised to Buy at Pareto Securities; PT 267 kronor
* Roku Raised to Buy at Redburn; PT $100 (+)
* Texas Instruments Raised to Outperform at Baird; PT $175
* Wartsila Raised to Hold at ABG; PT 16 euros (++)

>>> Down
* Acerinox Cut to Neutral at BNPP Exane; PT 10 euros (++)
* Amundi PT Cut to 69 euros from 72 euros at JPMorgan
* Aperam Cut to Neutral at BNPP Exane; PT 26.50 euros (++)
* Aston Martin Cut to Underperform at Mediobanca SpA; PT 54 pence
* Autostore Cut to Neutral at Citi; PT 9 kroner
* BioMerieux Cut to Hold at TP ICAP Midcap; PT 113 euros (++)
* De' Longhi Cut to Underperform at Mediobanca SpA; PT 25 euros
* Endesa Cut to Sell at Citi; PT 20.30 euros
* Enel Cut to Neutral at Citi; PT 7.40 euros
* Goldman Sachs Cut to Equal-Weight at Morgan Stanley; PT $558
* Holmen Cut to Underweight at Barclays; PT 350 kronor
* Kloeckner Cut to Hold at M.M. Warburg; PT 7.10 euros (+)
* Kuehne + Nagel PT Cut to 136 Swiss francs at Citi (+)
* Leroy Cut to Underweight at Barclays; PT 43 kroner
* Monte Paschi Cut to Equal-Weight at Barclays; PT 7.40 euros
* Mowi Cut to Equal-Weight at Barclays; PT 190 kroner
* Navitas Semiconductor Cut to Underweight at Morgan Stanley
* Nordic Semiconductor Cut to Hold at Pareto Securities
* Porsche Cut to Underperform at Mediobanca SpA; PT 43 euros
* Salmar Cut to Underweight at Barclays; PT 430 kroner
* Starbucks Cut to Neutral at Baird; PT $85
* Stora Enso Cut to Underweight at Barclays; PT 7.50 euros
* Swedbank Cut to Underperform at KBW; PT 225 kronor
* Veolia Cut to Sell at Citi; PT 26.40 euros
* Watches of Switzerland PT Cut to 400 pence at Peel Hunt

>>> Initiation
* ACG Metals Ltd Rated New Buy at Stifel; PT 575 pence (+)
* Alibaba ADRs Reinstated Outperform at Haitong Intl; PT $165
* Atome Rated New Buy at Stifel; PT 130 pence (+)
* Eaton Corp Cut to Neutral at President Capital Management
* Mycelx Technologies Rated New Corporate at Cavendish (+)

>>> Call
* Bernstein Sees Luxury Industry Shrinking Under Weight of Tariffs (++)
* Holmen, Stora Enso Downgraded at Barclays on Tariff Exposure
* Evercore ISI Is Latest Firm on Wall Street to Cut S&P 500 Target
* Top Wall Street Bull Stoltzfus Cuts S&P 500 Price Target by 16%
*UK Homebuilders to See ‘Tariff Turmoil’ Adding to Lull, Says RBC (++)

>>> What to look at today - 7th of April 2025

A flight from global equities accelerated Monday and investors piled into haven assets as the fallout from US President Donald Trump’s tariffs deepened after China announced retaliatory measures. Stocks tumbled from Sydney to Mumbai, sending a gauge of Asian shares lower by as much as 7.9%, the worst intraday drop in more than 16 years. Equity-index futures for US and Europe both fell about 3.6%. Oil retreated. Yields on two-year Treasuries, the most policy sensitive bonds, declined as much as 22 basis points. The dollar was mixed against major peers, with traditional haven currencies like the yen and Swiss franc outperforming. Credit-default swaps in Asia blew out by the most since the Covid-19 pandemic in 2020. Hong Kong’s benchmark index had its biggest intraday drop in more than 16 years as Beijing announced 34% tariffs on all imports from the US. A gauge of technology stocks in the city sank as much as 14% and Taiwan’s equity index tumbled the most on record. The moves underscore the heightened concerns across markets as Trump attempts to reshape global trade in Washington’s favor. Companies have altered business plans, equity strategists have trimmed forecasts as investors remain wary on the impacts from the tit-for-tat levies. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell made clear that the central bank won’t rush to react to the tariffs, which are likely to have a significant effect on the US economy, including slower growth and higher inflation. There were some signs the selloff were beginning to disrupt normal market operations. Japan experienced a so-called circuit-breaker given the magnitude of the losses there, while South Korea briefly halted sell orders for program trading. Trump and his economic team dismissed investors’ fears of inflation and recession, offering no apologies for the market turmoil sparked by sweeping global tariffs and defiantly insisting a boom is on the horizon. Trump, speaking Sunday on Air Force One, struck a determined tone and repeatedly defended the tariff barrage unveiled last week. On Friday, the S&P 500 saw its worst two-day plunge since March 2020 in a sellof that slashed over $5 trillion in value, with the gauge down 6%. The Nasdaq 100 entered a bear market. Wall Street has become more pessimistic about the president ditching his policies once the stock markets decline - the so-called ‘Trump put’ - as the president had in the past touted the stock market as a report card. The surge in the Cboe Volatility Index last week took the gauge of expectations for US equity moves to its highest level since the early Covid days of 2020 relative to similar measures from India, South Korea and Australia. A rally in US government debt sent the US two-year yield to touch the lowest since 2022 last week. Swaps traders are now pricing in more than four quarter-point cuts by the Fed by the end of the year compared with around three on April 1, the day before Trump’s announcements. The 10-year Treasury yield may drop to 3% by the end of this year, according to TD Securities. In addition to imposing new tariffs in response to Trump’s latest levies, China over the weekend pledged decisive action to defend its economy. These include “resolute measures” to safeguard its sovereignty, security and other interests, the state-owned Xinhua News Agency reported on Saturday. China said it has room to ease borrowing costs and reserve rules for lenders if needed to defend its economy against the tariffs. The reserve requirement ratio for financial institutions and the central bank’s policy rates can be cut anytime going forward, People’s Daily, the flagship newspaper of the Communist Party, said in a front-page commentary published on Monday. Meanwhile, Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba said he would go to the US as soon as possible to pitch a wide-ranging deal with Trump over tariffs. The president had previously said that he is open to reducing tariffs if other nations offer something “phenomenal.”   In commodities, copper and other metals reversed earlier drops. Oil sank after Saudi Arabia slashed its flagship crude price by the most in more than two years. Cryptocurrencies sold off sharply heading into the week in Asia, underscoring a clear risk-off sentiment across markets.

Nikkei -6.85% Hang Seng -11.73% CSI -7.02% Shanghai -7.36% Shenzen -10.32%

Eur$ 1.0980 CNH 7.3130 CNY 7.3071 JPY 146.22 GBP 1.2911 CHF 0.8543 RUB 84.5594 TRY 38.0084 WTI$ 60.48 -2.44% Gold 3,036 -0.07% BTC 77,320 -1.88% ETH 1,5554 -1.26%

S&P -3.66% Nasdaq -4.53% EuroStoxx -3.81% FTSE -1.99% Dax -4.47% SMI -3.35%

Macro :
- China Discusses Frontloading Stimulus to Counter Tariff Hit
- MUSK: HOPES US, EUROPE WILL MOVE TOWARD ZERO-TARIFF PROTOCOL
- Bill Gross Says ‘Next Week May Present Opportunities’
- Bitcoin’s Correlation With Stocks Shows Signs of Breaking Down
- Gerko’s XTX Markets Earnings Rise 50% on Global Trading Surge
- M&A and IPOs Worth Billions Stalled in 24 Hours by Trade War
- JPMORGAN SAYS IT NOW PROJECTS A US RECESSION IN 2025
- Portugal’s Opposition Proposes VAT Exemption for Some Food Items
- India to Focus on Trade Deal, Avoids Retaliation on US Tariffs
- DeepSeek and Tsinghua Developing Self-Improving AI Models
- Goldman Sachs brings art advisory service to Asia’s ultra-rich
- Billionaire Ackman Calls Trump April 9 Tariff Launch a ‘Mistake’

Keep an eye on :
- ACAST SS : Acast Sees Organic Net Sales Growth of 15% From 2025 to 2028
- AIR FP : Howmet Aerospace Declares Force Majeure After Trump Tariffs:Rtrs
- AKRBP NO : Aker BP 1Q Avg Production Beats Estimates
- AAPL US : Apple Mulls Expanding iPhone Assembly Line in Brazil: Exame
- MT NA : ArcelorMittal Brings 1Q Results Publication Forward to April 30
- ATO FP : Atos Brings Forward 1Q25 Revenue Release to April 17
- BSGR NA : B&S Surges as Sarabel Agrees Deal for €6.15/Share in Cash
- BSGR NA : B&S Sells Lagaay Medical Group to Unimed for $45.9M
- ABX CN : Barrick Gold Proposes Name Change to Reflect Its Copper Push
- CLASB SS : Clas Ohlson March Organic Sales +19%
- CRISA IPO : Blackstone Halts IPO Plans for Spain’s Cirsa: El Confidencial
- GAM SW : Gam Investments, Swiss Re Enter Cat Bond, ILS Partnership
- GOGL US : Golden Ocean Appoints Peder Simonsen CEO
- HWM US : HWM: Howmet Aerospace could halt orders if hit by Trump tariffs, Reuters reports
- BAER SW : Julius Baer Announces Changes to Further Streamline Organization
- LSG NO : Leroy Prelim 1Q Harvest Beats Estimates
- META US : Meta Releases New Llama 4 AI Models With Multimodal Design (1)
- PSM GY : ProSiebenSat.1 Lines up Defense Advisers After MFE Bid: Reuters
- QIA GY : Qiagen Raises Adj. EPS Outlook For FY 2025
- SAF FP : Safran-Collins Deal Gets Conditional EU Nod
- SAN SM : Santander UK Favors Ex-Treasury Chief Scholar as Chair, Sky Says
- SAN FP : Texas Measles Outbreak Causes Death of a Second Child- WSJ
- SGO FP : St. Gobain Is Said to Halt €2.5 Billion Auto Glass Sale
- TESB BB : Tessenderlo Says Manuco International Holds 10.03% Voting Rights
- TSLA US : SpaceX, ULA, Blue Origin Win $13B in Pentagon Launch Contracts
- TSLA US : Tesla Bull Slashes Stock Price Target 43%, Citing Musk and Trump
- TGS NO : TGS Gets OBN 3D Contract Offshore Trinidad for About 80 Days
- TIMT IN : Jaguar Land Rover to Pause Exports to US on Tariffs, Times Says
- VLA FP : Valneva chikungunya vaccine age indication expanded in the EU

>>> Europe : Brokers Upgrades & Downgrades - 7th of April 2025

>>> Up
* Alfen Raised to Buy at Van Lanschot Kempen; PT 16.50 euros
* Bank of America Raised to Overweight at Morgan Stanley; PT $47
* Mondi Raised to Equal-Weight at Barclays; PT 1,100 pence
* Nordnet Raised to Buy at Pareto Securities; PT 267 kronor
* Texas Instruments Raised to Outperform at Baird; PT $175

>>> Down
* Amundi PT Cut to 69 euros from 72 euros at JPMorgan
* Aston Martin Cut to Underperform at Mediobanca SpA; PT 54 pence
* Autostore Cut to Neutral at Citi; PT 9 kroner
* De' Longhi Cut to Underperform at Mediobanca SpA; PT 25 euros
* Endesa Cut to Sell at Citi; PT 20.30 euros
* Enel Cut to Neutral at Citi; PT 7.40 euros
* Goldman Sachs Cut to Equal-Weight at Morgan Stanley; PT $558
* Holmen Cut to Underweight at Barclays; PT 350 kronor
* Leroy Cut to Underweight at Barclays; PT 43 kroner
* Monte Paschi Cut to Equal-Weight at Barclays; PT 7.40 euros
* Mowi Cut to Equal-Weight at Barclays; PT 190 kroner
* Navitas Semiconductor Cut to Underweight at Morgan Stanley
* Nordic Semiconductor Cut to Hold at Pareto Securities
* Porsche Cut to Underperform at Mediobanca SpA; PT 43 euros
* Salmar Cut to Underweight at Barclays; PT 430 kroner
* Starbucks Cut to Neutral at Baird; PT $85
* Stora Enso Cut to Underweight at Barclays; PT 7.50 euros
* Swedbank Cut to Underperform at KBW; PT 225 kronor
* Veolia Cut to Sell at Citi; PT 26.40 euros
* Watches of Switzerland PT Cut to 400 pence at Peel Hunt

>>> Initiation
* Alibaba ADRs Reinstated Outperform at Haitong Intl; PT $165
* Eaton Corp Cut to Neutral at President Capital Management

>>> Call
* Holmen, Stora Enso Downgraded at Barclays on Tariff Exposure
* Evercore ISI Is Latest Firm on Wall Street to Cut S&P 500 Target
* Top Wall Street Bull Stoltzfus Cuts S&P 500 Price Target by 16%

>>> Stoxx 600 Pre-Market Indications

  • Aberdeen Group (T3V2 TH) +1.8%
  • Frontline PLC (HF6 TH) +0.6%
  • Var Energi (J4V TH) +0.5%
  • 3i (IGQ5 TH) -11%
  • Rolls-Royce (RRU TH) -12%
  • Hensoldt (HAG TH) -12%
  • Thales (CSF TH) -12%
  • Leonardo (FMNB TH) -12%
  • Siemens Energy (ENR TH) -12%
  • Hochtief (HOT TH) -12%
  • Rational (RAA TH) -14%
  • Thyssenkrupp (TKA TH) -14%
  • Rheinmetall (RHM TH) -15%
    • Germany Faces a Big Obstacle: Can Merz Spend a Trillion Euros?

>>> TradeGate Pre-Market Indications

DAX:
  • Porsche (P911 TH) -1.6%
    • Porsche Cut to Underperform at Mediobanca SpA; PT 43 euros
  • Beiersdorf (BEI TH) -1.7%
  • BMW (BMW TH) -1.8%
  • Henkel (HEN3 TH) -1.8%
  • Qiagen (QIA TH) -2.1%
    • Qiagen Raises Adj. EPS Outlook For FY 2025
  • Commerzbank (CBK TH) -9.1%
  • MTU Aero (MTX TH) -9.2%
  • Munich Re (MUV2 TH) -9.7%
  • Siemens Energy (ENR TH) -12%
  • Rheinmetall (RHM TH) -15%
    • Germany Faces a Big Obstacle: Can Merz Spend a Trillion Euros?
MDAX:
  • TAG Immobilien (TEG TH) -1%
  • Krones (KRN TH) -1.7%
  • Aroundtown (AT1 TH) -2.6%
  • DWS (DWS TH) -2.7%
  • Jenoptik (JEN TH) -2.7%
  • Fuchs (FPE3 TH) -9.2%
  • Hensoldt (HAG TH) -12%
    • Germany Faces a Big Obstacle: Can Merz Spend a Trillion Euros?
  • Nordex (NDX1 TH) -12%
  • Thyssenkrupp (TKA TH) -14%
  • RENK Group AG (R3NK TH) -15%
SDAX:
  • Schaeffler (SHA0 TH) +0.8%
  • IONOS Group SE (IOS TH) -0.6%
  • Medios (ILM1 TH) -1.1%
  • Hamborner REIT (HABA TH) -1.2%
  • Stabilus (STM TH) -1.5%
  • Mutares (MUX TH) -8.3%
  • Draegerwerk (DRW3 TH) -8.6%
  • Eckert & Ziegler (EUZ TH) -8.7%
  • Deutz (DEZ TH) -11%
  • Kontron (KTN TH) -12%

FT : Solving for three variables with markets in chaos

Solving for three variables with markets in chaos

What just happened?
It is probably a mistake to expend too much analytical energy on what happened in the US market on Thursday and Friday. This was a panic, and in a panic there is more noise than meaning. And the panic may continue today. We already discussed the thing that struck us most about the post-liberation day freakout: the weak dollar. But we might usefully summarise what issues the market is wrestling with, however irrationally. To start, here is the 15 worst performers in the S&P 500 during the sell-off:


There are, to simplify quite a bit, two main kinds of companies here (some are a mix of both types). The first are companies whose supply chains are going to be absolutely whacked by the tariffs. The tech importers fit there (Micron, Western, Dell, GE HealthCare). The second is energy, commodity and financial companies that are very sensitive to rising odds of recession (APA, Diamondback, Freeport, Apollo). This nicely sums up the first two questions the stock market is wrestling with. On the one hand, there is the specific hit companies will take from tariffs; on the other, there is the effect that a shock to the economy might have on demand in general.

On the first point — the earnings hit — Scott Chronert of Citigroup estimates that an average tariff rate over 20+ per cent, sustained indefinitely, would reduce earnings per share on the S&P 500 by 11 per cent. By reducing growth rates and increasing risk, it should depress the valuation of those earnings, too. All in, he thinks incorporating persistent tariffs at the current level would, on its own, bring the fair value of the S&P index to 4700, 7 per cent below its current level. This can only be a rough and ready calculation; much depends on how other countries respond, tax cuts and whatever else. And, Chronert notes, “this work does not factor in potential impact of sentiment shocks.”

On the question of impact on aggregate demand, JPMorgan’s chief US economist Michael Feroli is now projecting that full year real GDP growth will fall slightly, unemployment will rise to 5.3 per cent at year’s end (it is now 4.2 per cent), and core PCE inflation will rise to 4.4 per cent. He writes:

The most readily quantifiable effect of higher tariffs on activity runs through higher inflation, and hence lower real income and lower real consumer spending. The pinch from higher prices that we expect in coming months may hit harder than in the post-pandemic inflation spike, as nominal income growth has been moderating recently, as opposed to accelerating in the earlier episode. Moreover, in an environment of heightened uncertainty consumers may be reluctant to dip too far into savings . . . we have no reason to revisit our prior conclusion that [policy] uncertainty will be a headwind to capex growth later this year

In sum: eek. But we can take some comfort from the fact that inflation is the key mechanism, because if the pandemic taught us anything, it’s that inflation is hard to forecast, both as it rises and as it falls. The economic logic for a slowdown is clear, but any forecast must be made humbly at this point. This is all new. 

In addition to the hits to earnings and demand, a third factor has to be priced in: the sheer unpredictability of Trump’s trade policy. In particular, the method of arriving at the tariffs rates announced last week was so bizarre and so wildly at odds with the administration’s talk about “reciprocity,” that investors can only speculate about what might be coming next. Matt Klein sums up over at The Overshoot: 

The . . . announcement and implementation of these tax increases has made the incompetence and thoughtlessness of this administration even more obvious. The nonsensical “reciprocal” tariff rates published on April 2 were, as best as anyone can tell, generated by a chatbot. Officials repeatedly lied about how the rates were calculated, claiming that each economy’s “tariff and non tariff barriers” policies were quantified individually . . . Traders have responded by placing a “moron risk premium” — to borrow a term from the U.K.’s mini-budget misadventure — on US assets

What is next? The Trump administration caused this scare, and the market is counting on it to project calm now. The best way for it to do that would be to tell markets that the tariffs are subject to negotiation. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, National Economic Council director Kevin Hassett, Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick, and trade adviser Peter Navarro did the rounds of the news shows yesterday. Unhedged does not recommend watching them all consecutively, but there was a unified message to be heard. It might be summed up as follows: These tariffs are going to happen on April 9, without any last-minute reprieve. Countries are currently lining up to negotiate with us. But those negotiations will take a long time, because the crucial issue is not tariff rates but non-tariff “cheating” (currency manipulation, subsidies, VAT taxes, industrial standards, et al). 

No tariff reductions soon, then. That is the message from the White House as of yesterday. But if the market continues to rebel this week, this could change. 

FT : Big investors look to sell out of private equity after market rout

Big investors look to sell out of private equity after market rout
Pensions and endowments seek exit from battered portfolios in blow to buyout industry

Large institutional investors are studying options to shed stakes in illiquid private equity funds after the rout in global financial markets pummelled their portfolios, according to top private capital advisers.

The calls by pensions and endowments seeking ways to exit their investments, probably at discounts to their stated value, is a bad sign for the $4tn buyout industry. Industry giants such as Blackstone, KKR and Carlyle all saw their stocks plunge by about a fifth in value this week.

The race to find liquidity signals that investors in private equity funds increasingly expect to receive few cash profits from their holdings this year and may face liquidity pressures that cause them to further retrench from making new investments. Last year, the private equity industry’s assets dropped for the first time in decades, according to Bain & Co, as fundraising plunged 23 per cent from 2023.

Executives had expected that a revival of dealmaking and initial public offerings under US President Donald Trump’s administration would help firms return profits to their investors, bolstering a spurt of new investment activity. But the opposite has happened, leaving the private equity industry in one of its most vulnerable states ever.

The stresses in the industry are drawing parallels to the onset of the 2008 financial crisis, or the early days of the coronavirus pandemic.

“The amount of calls I’ve received from limited partners seeking liquidity in the past few days is the most since the first days of Covid,” said Matthew Swain, head of private capital at Houlihan Lokey. “People were banking on IPOs to meet their liquidity needs and now need to raise cash just to meet capital calls.”

Many large investors in private equity funds entered the year with record levels of exposure to unlisted assets. While the exposures often stretched beyond investors’ risk limits and even led to a wave of borrowing by many institutions, they had bet the situation was manageable and would be quickly resolved by a revival of dealmaking.

Now, after global stock markets dropped by trillions in value, these institutions face a double hit.

Dealmaking and IPO activity has ground to a halt, minimising cash returns. Moreover, pensions’ exposure to unlisted assets swelled this week as the plunge in public markets has created a “denominator effect”, in which private market holdings that are only marked quarterly rise as a percentage of their overall assets, skewing desired allocations.

“If the public market keeps going down and down, the denominator effect will become an issue again,” said Oren Gertner, a partner specialising in secondaries at law firm Sidley Austin.

Many large investors are speaking to advisers and considering options to sell their stakes in funds at discounts on second-hand markets, top industry bankers told the Financial Times.

“The denominator effect is going to mean a lot of people are over-allocated,” said one adviser, who forecast endowments would be the first to consider new sales of assets on second-hand markets.

“Everyone was hopeful the private machine would restart. But now the pressure is very real” said another adviser, referring to firms’ ability to return cash to investors.

Both advisers expected endowments, already facing financial challenges from Trump’s threats to tax such portfolios and cut federal funding grants, would be the first to dump assets.

Sunaina Sinha Haldea, global head of private capital advisory at Raymond James, expected an investor sell-off of fund stakes if public stocks continued to fall, or did not recover by the end of the month.

Investors that choose to sell their stakes will face a brutal marketplace, advisers warned.

The prices of second-hand private equity fund stakes, which had risen to nearly 100 cents on the dollar in recent quarters, could fall to levels below 80 cents on the dollar, they forecast.

“Most people don’t want to sell below 80 per cent of a fund’s net asset value or less, but this time could be different,” said one top banker.