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*GERMAN ZEW JUNE INVESTOR EXPECTATIONS AT 29.8

The deficit could even be "slightly" more than 4% if the growth is not at the rendezvous, prevent judges from the Court of Auditors.

The report released Tuesday morning by the Court of Auditors promises to enliven parliamentary debates coming days on the supplementary budget (see document below). Leaning on the situation and the outlook for public finances, the magistrates of the rue Cambon serious doubts on multi-year commitments of France on deficit reduction. And when even that Bercy has just revised upwards its target for 2014 of 3.6% to 3.8% in the draft Finance Act amending, it "may be exceeded," warns the Court. According to her, "it could nevertheless be p close to 4% of GDP in 2014, slightly above see if the government growth forecast did not come true".

Lower input tax revenue

Magistrates highlight several risks to the government's target. The first is to lower tax revenues entries. Actant that taxes fall ill in the state coffers, Bercy just lowered its forecast of 5.3 billion compared to initial budget. Enough! Says in substance the Court of Auditors, for whom "there is a risk to fall 2 to 3 billion euros." And again, this is assuming that growth is well 1% on average this year, as stipulated by the Government.

But on this point, the High Council of Public Finance last week, indicated that, without being out of reach, this prediction "now seemed high," says the Court. As in 2013, is on the revenue side that disappointment may come. The expenditure side, the Court considers "moderate" risk of exceeding. The side of the state, where Bercy has canceled 1.6 billion euros of credits during the year, new goals "can and must be achieved." But there is "no safety margin for unexpected expenses," she warns. In contrast, the side of local authorities exceeded expenditure targets is "probable."

The Court of Auditors did not write well, but in his eyes, a deficit to 4% this year (against 4.3% in 2013) thus appears already as a minimum. What a domino effect weakens public finances trajectory leads to the following years. And a fortiori, the ability of France to maintain its objective of 3% in 2015. Regarding the outlook for 2015-2017, "the actual and structural deficits and public debt could be higher than those registered in the stability program, said the Court. While Bercy sees debt to stabilize at 95.6% of GDP in 2015 before declining, judges judge "probable" that it increases "at least" until the end of 2015.

Difficult to achieve the 21 billion planned economies

The risk of not holding objectives "is particularly important for the year 2015." While the risks on the revenue are not "significant", the "main problem" is to achieve 21 billion euros in savings programmed. Bercy, in fact, predicted that 40% of the effort plan to save 50 billion from 2015 to 2017 leads in the first year. "Very ambitious" goal judge court. And even more so that "it appears that many economies will be the same each year or increasing over time, which is hardly compatible with a concentration of their effects on 2015."

For judges, with the objectives of spending in 2015, is actually based on the assumption of a "sharp decline in local investment and the construction of a very tight budget for the state." But on the first point, the local authorities could at least reduce their investments in increasing the rates of local taxes and borrowing more, their financing conditions had improved, the Court is concerned. On the second point, the necessary savings to the state assume "deep reforms" (rather than shots plane) while the savings that result from the process of modernization of public action (MAP) "are still far to be up to this challenge. "

In total, "with the objectives of public deficit and structural strength for 2015 will be in these circumstances, very difficult," the judge Court of Auditors. It further recalls that the effort will be based on stakeholders (local authorities, Unédic) "which the state does not control spending." What promise new heated discussions between Paris and Brussels in the coming months.

Lower tax burden limited to 14 billion from 2015 to 2017

Pressed by its majority and anxious to avoid a new tax ras-le-bol, the executive wants to engage in a lower tax burden. This will be very limited, however, said the Court of Auditors in its annual report on public finances. Magistrates figure to 14 billion euros over three years net decrease in the tax burden induced by the new measures. If the pact responsibility and scalability CICE represent relief 35 billion euros, the government budget strategy presented in April provides "a parallel increase other taxes amounting to 21 billion." And include, for example, higher rates of climate-energy contribution (2000000000) and the contribution to the public electricity service (3000000000); replacing the heavy weight tax (1 billion) or higher local tax rates (4000000000).

Le rapport publié ce mardi matin par la Cour des comptes promet d’animer les débats parlementaires des prochains jours sur le collectif budgétaire (voir document ci-dessous). Se penchant sur la situation et les perspectives des finances publiques, les magistrats de la rue Cambon émettent de sérieux doutes sur les engagements pluriannuels de la France en matière de réduction du déficit. Et ce alors que même que Bercy vient tout juste de réviser à la hausse son objectif pour 2014 de 3,6 % à 3,8 % dans le projet de loi de Finances rectificatif, celui-ci « risque d’être dépassé », prévient la Cour. Selon elle, il « pourrait être proche de 4% du PIB en 2014, voir légèrement supérieur si la prévision de croissance du gouvernement ne se réalisait pas », .

Moindres entrées de recettes fiscales

Les magistrats mettent en avant plusieurs risques pesant sur l’objectif gouvernemental. Le premier tient aux moindres entrées de recettes fiscales. Actant le fait que les impôts rentrent mal dans les caisses de l’Etat, Bercy vient d’abaisser sa prévision de 5,3 milliards par rapport à projet de budget initial. Insuffisant !, indique en substance la Cour des comptes, pour qui « il subsiste un risque à la baisse de 2 à 3 milliards  d’euros ». Et encore, c’est à supposer que la croissance soit bien à 1 % en moyenne cette année, comme le prévoit le gouvernement.

Or sur ce point, le Haut Conseil des finances publiques a, la semaine dernière, indiqué que, sans être hors d’atteinte, cette prévision « paraissait désormais élevée », rappelle la Cour. Comme en 2013, c’est donc du côté des recettes que la déception risque de venir. Du coté des dépenses, la Cour juge « modéré » le risque de dépassement. Du coté de l’Etat, où Bercy vient d’annuler 1,6 milliard d’euros de crédits en cours d’année, les nouveaux objectifs « peuvent et doivent être atteints ». Mais il n’existe « aucune marge de sécurité pour des dépenses imprévues », prévient-elle. En revanche, du côté des collectivités locales, un dépassement des objectifs de dépenses est « probable ».

La Cour des comptes ne l’écrit pas ainsi mais, à ses yeux, un déficit à 4 % cette année (contre 4,3 % en 2013) apparaît donc déjà comme un minima. Ce qui, par effet domino, fragilise la trajectoire de finances publiques conduit des années suivantes. Et à fortiori, sur la capacité de la France à tenir son objectif de retour à 3 % en 2015. Concernant les perspectives pour 2015 à 2017, « les déficits effectifs et structurels, ainsi que la dette publique, pourraient être plus élevés que ceux inscrits dans le programme de stabilité, indique la Cour. Alors que Bercy voit la dette se stabiliser à 95,6 % du PIB en 2015 avant de décroître, les magistrats juge «probable » qu’elle augmente « au moins » jusqu’à fin 2015.

Difficile de réaliser les 21 milliards d’économies programmés

Le risque de ne pas tenir les objectifs « est plus particulièrement important pour l’année 2015 ». Si les risques sur les recettes ne sont pas « négligeables », la « principale difficulté » est de réaliser les 21 milliards d’euros d’économies programmés. Bercy a, en effet, prévu que 40 % de l’effort du plan de 50 milliards d’économies pour 2015-2017 débouche dès la première année. Un objectif « très ambitieux », juge la cour. Et ce d’autant plus qu’« il apparaît que beaucoup d’économies seront identiques chaque année ou croissantes dans le temps, ce qui est peu compatible avec une concentration de leurs effets sur 2015 ».

Pour les magistrats, le respect des objectifs de dépenses en 2015, repose en fait sur l’hypothèse d’une « forte baisse de l’investissement local et sur la construction d’un budget très serré pour l’Etat ». Or sur le premier point, les collectivités locales pourraient moins réduire leurs investissements en augmentant le taux des impôts locaux et en empruntant plus, leurs conditions de financement s’étant améliorées, craint la Cour. Sur le second point, les économies nécessaires sur l’Etat supposent « de profondes réformes » (et non plus des coups de rabot) alors que les économies qui résultent de la démarche de modernisation de l’action publique (MAP) « sont encore loin d’être à la hauteur de cet enjeu ».

Au total, « le respect des objectifs de déficit public, effectif et structurel, pour 2015 sera, dans ces conditions, très difficile », juge la Cour des comptes. Elle rappelle en outre que l’effort va reposer sur des acteurs (collectivités locales, Unédic) « dont l’Etat ne maîtrise pas les dépenses ». De quoi promettre de nouvelles discussions orageuses entre Paris et Bruxelles dans les prochains mois.

Une baisse des prélèvements obligatoires limitée à 14 milliards de 2015 à 2017

Pressé par sa majorité et soucieux d’éviter un nouveau ras-le-bol fiscal, l’exécutif veut s’engager dans une baisse des prélèvements obligatoires. Celle-ci sera très limitée, souligne toutefois la Cour des comptes dans son rapport annuel sur les finances publiques. Les magistrats chiffre à 14 milliards d’euros la baisse nette sur trois ans des prélèvements obligatoires induite par les mesures nouvelles. Si le pacte de responsabilité et la montée en charge du CICE représentent un allègement de 35 milliards d’euros, la trajectoire budgétaire du gouvernement présentée en avril dernier prévoit « parallèlement une augmentation d’autres prélèvements pour un montant de 21 milliards ». Et de citer, par exemple, la hausse des taux de la contribution climat-énergie (2 milliards) et de la contribution au service public de l’électricité (3 milliards) ; le remplacement de la taxe poids lourds (1 milliard) ou encore la hausse des taux des impôts locaux (4 milliards).

The worldwide popularity of sports TV programming has elevated professional sports franchises into their own asset class — worth about $550 billion globally, according to a report on Monday.

And with the change, sports teams — as evidenced by last month’s $2 billion bid for the LA Clippers and the LA Dodgers’ $2.15 billion deal in 2012 — have transformed from trophy assets into one of the best assets around, the report said.

In fact, sports teams compare to stocks, bonds and real estate as the “only safe haven,” according to the report from ConvergEx Group.

That’s because this newest of asset classes “moves independently of both financial and physical assets, such as gold and real estate,” ConvergEx, a global brokerage firm, said.

A big reason for sports’ arrival is what the firm called the “must see live” characteristic of such activities, dating back to when the Olympic Games began in 776 BC and continuing right up to the World Cup today.

“Football games, soccer matches, the Olympics — these type of events are the only thing that has managed to hold live viewer attention in an increasingly fragmented world dominated by TiVo, YouTube, Netflix, DVR, etc.,” ConvergEx reported.

Advertiser appreciation for these live and attentive audiences already has the global sports industry valued between $480 billion and $620 billion.

As for the value of major leagues in just the US — MLB, NBA, NFL and NHL — ConvergEx put that figure “just shy of $80 billion.”

And once the Union of European Football Associations gets added to America’s Big 4, the firm said the total value rose to $101 billion.

By comparison, the Census Bureau called US residential real-estate construction a $107.5 billion industry in 2012, and a recent global study projected gold will be $187.7 billion market by 2017.

ConvergEx did acknowledge that the new asset class isn’t for everybody.

Unless you’re a big shot like Steve Ballmer, who made the $2 billion bid for the Clippers, gaining access won’t be easy.

The sectarian strife in Iraq has put growth of Opec crude oil production capacity over the next five years at risk, according to the International Energy Agency, highlighting the importance of the country for the global energy market.

Roughly 60 per cent of the growth in the oil-producing cartel’s production capacity up until 2019 was expected to come from Iraq.

“Given Iraq’s precarious political and security situation, the forecast [for Opec output capacity growth of 2.08m barrels a day for 2013-19] is laden with downside risk,” the watchdog backed by wealthy nations said in its annual medium-term oil market report released on Tuesday.

Sunni insurgents from the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (known as Isis) made further territorial gains over the Shia-led government in northern Iraq, having already taken the city of Mosul.

The escalating violence has threatened the disintegration of the country and the oil supplies of Opec’s second largest crude producer after Saudi Arabia.

The military offensive “brought home to markets . . . how unstable and volatile the Iraqi political situation remains”, the IEA said of the nation that produces more than 3m b/d.

Iraq had re-emerged as a critical source of oil in recent years, reaching a 35-year high of 3.6m barrels in February. Although Abdul Kareem Luaibi, the country’s oil minister, struck a defiant tone last week in Vienna, analysts say it is unlikely Iraq will hit its 4m b/d production target.

“This offensive is not only raising concerns about future production from operating and new projects, but casting a pall on the functioning of the country’s government institutions and even on regional stability,” the IEA added.

Concerns over Iraqi supply come as fighting in Libya has stalled production while international sanctions against Iran over its nuclear programme have cut exports. Nigerian production has been plagued by theft.

“Political turmoil and security concerns are a growing impediment to supply growth,” said the IEA. “Enough Opec countries are facing headwinds for the output from the group as a whole to be affected.”

Katherine Spector, a commodities strategist at CIBC World Markets, said although oil supplies from Iraq were not at immediate risk as the fighting had not spread to the south – home to three-quarters of the country’s crude output – “we cannot rule out the risk entirely”.

“Even before the violence broke out this was a fairly tightly managed oil market. We were one more supply outage away from sharply higher prices. Although we’re not quite there yet, this is a concern,” said Ms Spector.

The price of Brent crude surged above $114 late last week for the first time in nine months.

European Auto Industry Recovery Slows in May

Car Registrations Grew at Slowest Pace in Six Months

New car registrations in the European Union, a proxy for actual sales, rose 4.5% on the year to 1.09 million vehicles in May. In the first five month, registrations grew 6.9%.

All major markets contributed positively to the overall expansion of the EU market, except Italy, which faced a downturn, ACEA said Thursday.

In Italy, car registrations fell 3.8%. Spain and Portugal reported double-digit growth in demand for new cars, while registrations rose 7.7% in the U.K.

Germany, the EU's biggest car market, posted a 5.2% increase in May, while registrations in France rose 0.3% for the same period.

While the turnaround seems intact, there are some doubts about the strength of the car sales recovery. ACEA said it was the second-lowest number of cars sold in May since the group began collecting EU-wide data in 2003.

Among European car makers, registrations of Volkswagen VOW3.XE -0.61% cars rose 9.6% in May, while PSA Group sold 4.3% more cars. Renault group sales jumped 19% last month, making it the fastest-growing European car maker in May. However, BMW Group's BMW.XE +0.19% car registrations fell 2.2% and Italy's Fiat F.MI -1.10% was down 2.7%.

Among non-European manufacturers, U.S. car makers struggled to gain ground in European markets, with General Motors GM +1.21% car registrations declining 6.8% in May and Ford's sales falling 2% in the month.