(BFW) Africa Oil a Compelling Opportunity on M&A, Exploration, GS Says


Africa Oil a Compelling Opportunity on M&A, Exploration, GS Says
2014-10-02 06:55:03.34 GMT


By James Cone
Oct. 2 (Bloomberg) -- Offers exposure to a strategic asset
with potential to achieve premium valuation, Goldman Sachs says
in note dated Oct. 1, reiterates conviction list buy.
* GS: In M&A scenario, excl. exploration, sees 58% upside to
shrs even with re-introduction of capital gains tax in Kenya
on asset sales
* Can unlock significant upside potential from Kenya
exploration; says appears no risk value currently
ascribed by mkt
* Sees Central Kerio, North Kerio, West Omo and North
Turkana to be tested by end 1Q 2015
* Potential sale of co., asset disposal, farm-down, equity
placing all potential options
* Potential sale of co., asset disposal, farm-down, equity
placing all potential options</li></ul>
* Trims PT 15% to SEK 52.6

For Related News and Information:
First Word scrolling panel: FIRST<GO>
First Word newswire: NH BFW<GO>

To contact the reporter on this story:
James Cone in London at +44-20-7673-2572 or
jcone@bloomberg.net
To contact the editor responsible for this story:
James Ludden at +44-20-7673-2645 or
jludden@bloomberg.net

(GS) eBay : Raising price target on greater likelihood of M&A post spin-off

What's changed
On 9/30, eBay's Board of Directors approved a plan to separate eBay and
PayPal into independent publicly traded companies, which it expects to
complete in 2H15 subject to market and regulatory conditions. Reflecting
the increased likelihood of M&A for the proposed independent companies,
we incorporate an M&A component (weighted 15%) into our valuation. As
a result, our 12-month price target for eBay increases to $68 from $61,
implying 20% upside. We maintain our CL-Buy, given the relative
risk/reward we see in owning eBay based on our expectations that the
Marketplaces business recovers from the events of the past six months,
competitive fears for PayPal ease over the coming months, and the
potential for M&A drives a rerating of the combined company.

Implications
Management changes. Post the proposed separation, Devin Wenig, eBay
Marketplaces president, will become CEO of eBay. Dan Schulman, most
recently President of Enterprise Growth at American Express, has joined
PayPal as President and will become CEO. Current CEO John Donahoe and
CFO Bob Swan will oversee the separation and serve on one or both
boards. Estimates. We maintain our 2014-16 revenue estimates while we
lower adjusted EBITDA by 1% on average to reflect the likelihood of
incremental investment at PayPal.

Valuation
Our 12-month price target increases to $68 from $61 based on an 85%/15%
blend of our SOTP valuation of $63 (implying 10.7X 2015E EV/EBITDA) and
M&A valuation of $97 (Exhibit 3). We raise our M&A rank for the combined
company from 3 to 2 to reflect the potential strategic value of the business to
acquirers if the proposed separation is completed.

Key risks
(-): Competition, execution on proposed separation, take rate pressures,
investment needs.

>>> What to look at today - 2nd of October 2014

US Market closed lower, S&P crossed its 100d MA, disap. Eurozone PMI pushed mkt lower, Industrial closed lower by 1,4%, ebola effect pushed airlines names lower, Transport tumbled -2,5%, financials -1,2%, Energy outperformed -0,4%...Utilities closed +0,5%...volume were above average @ 845mil shares...VIX @ 16,71 +2,45%...US After Hours : AGU -4.5% following earnings/guidance...Market waiting for ECB today...Hong Kong-related uncertainty remains elevated, with China state media announcing the govt will "not give an inch" of compromise over the Occupy Central protest. Recall that some of the movement leaders have demanded for CY Leung to announce resignation by Thursday evening (local time), though the "or else" component of the "ultimatum" were not clear...Nikkei -2.70% Hang Seng Closed Shanghai closed

Eur$ 1.2647 S&P +0.08% EuroStoxx -0.41% FTSE -0.21% Dax -0.3% SMI -0.45%

Keep an eye on :
- ABBN VX : ABB CEO Says Could Move Swiss HQ After Immigration Vote: Bilanz {NSN NCS6ZB6S972S <go>}
- AFR LN : SAPetro( Nigerian Souoth atlantic petroleum) build a 3% stake, after news on no evidence of more unauthorised payment
- AIR FP : Airbus, Skymark in Talks on Contract Breach Payment: Nikkei
- AKE FP : EU to Probe Montebourg’s Aid to Arkema’s Kem One, Figaro Says
- AREVA FP : Areva to Supply Fuel to EDF's French Nuclear Fleet 2015-21
- BP/ LN : BP Must Face Lawsuits in U.S. by Foreign Investors, Judge Says
- ACA FP : Credit Agricole Has No Need to Create Proprietary Trading Unit
- BN FP : Good input price ANZ commodity survey in new zealand (Whole milk powder prices slipped 5 per cent, butter prices dropped 8 percent and cheese prices fell 3 per cent)
- ENEL IM : Enel CEO Andrea Brentan Resigns, Jose Damian Bogas new CEO
- ENI IM : Eni Accused of Paying +$500m in Bribes in Nigeria Deal: Reuters {http://bit.ly/Zsq9fk}
- HOT GY : Hochtief to Buy Back Up to 6.92m Shrs by End of 2015
- O2D GY : Telefonica Deutschland Pledges to Maintain Stable Prices: Bild
- ORA FP : Orange, Netflix Working on Distribution Agreement
- RKET GY : Rocket Internet Prices IPO at EU42.50/Shr, Top of Range
- RR/ LN : Rolls-Royce Very Confident 2014 Will Be Another Record Year
- RWE GY : RWE Searches for New Business Model, Handelsblatt Says
- SBRY LN : Qatar Fund Has GBP1.5b Loss on Sainsbury Stock Slide: Telegraph
- VOW3 GY : VW Delivered Record Number of Vehicles in Jan.-Sept. Period

>>> Brokers Upgrades & Downgrades - 2nd of October 2014

>>> Up
*ABERDEEN ASSET MGMT RAISED TO HOLD VS UNDERPERFORM AT JEFFERIES
*DIALOG SEMI RAISED TO BUY VS HOLD AT BANKHAUS LAMPE (EARLIER)
*HARGREAVES LANSDOWN RAISED TO BUY VS ADD AT NUMIS
*HENDERSON RAISED TO HOLD VS REDUCE AT NUMIS
*IMA RAISED TO BUY VS HOLD AT EQUITA (YDAY)
*LVMH RAISED TO OVERWEIGHT VS NEUTRAL AT JPMORGAN
*POLAR CAPITAL RAISED TO ADD VS HOLD AT NUMIS; PT GBP490
*RICHEMONT RAISED TO OVERWEIGHT VS NEUTRAL AT JPMORGAN
*SWISS LIFE RAISED TO EQUALWEIGHT AT MORGAN STANLEY
*TF1 RAISED TO BUY VS NEUTRAL AT UBS
*TRUWORTHS RAISED TO BUY AT RENAISSANCE CAPITAL; PT ZAR80

>>> Down
*DIRECT LINE CUT TO EQUALWEIGHT VS OVERWEIGHT AT MORGAN STANLEY
*ORANGE POLSKA CUT TO HOLD VS BUY AT ING
*SAINSBURY CUT TO UNDERPERFORM AT MACQUARIE
*SGS CUT TO UNDERPERFORM VS NEUTRAL AT CREDIT SUISSE
*TCS GROUP HOLDING CUT TO SELL VS HOLD AT DEUTSCHE; PT $4
*VOZROZHDENIE BANK CUT TO HOLD VS BUY AT DEUTSCHE; PT RUB 420

>>> PT Change


>>> Initiation
*DECHRA PHARMA RATED NEW BUY AT JEFFERIES, PT 871P
*HALMA RATED NEW HOLD AT LIBERUM, PT 600P
*HUGO BOSS RATED NEW BUY AT JEFFERIES, PT EU11
*IPSEN RATED NEW OVERWEIGHT AT MORGAN STANLEY
*NOVO NORDISK RATED NEW EQUALWEIGHT AT MORGAN STANLEY, PT DK301
*RTL GROUP RATED NEW BUY AT UBS, PT EU84.70
*VOSSLOH RATED BUY AT BERENBERG; WAS UNDER REVIEW

>>> Call
>> Stock
*ADP REMOVED FROM GOLDMAN CONVICTION SELL LIST, STAYS SELL
*FRAPORT REMOVED FROM GOLDMAN CONVICTION BUY LIST, STAYS BUY

>>> Afren, the oil and gas group, advanced 5.9p to 109.4, having reassured inves

Afren, the oil and gas group, advanced 5.9p to 109.4, having reassured investors after the close on Tuesday that an ongoing investigation into unauthorised payments had so far found no evidence of other similar transactions.
Nigerian explorer South Atlantic Petroleum (SAPetro) on Monday disclosed a shareholding in Afren, which spurred bid chatter. Deutsche Bank said the investigation update “will inevitably raise fresh questions on Afren’s vulnerability to a takeover, especially when one considers that SAPetro…has recently built a 3pc stake”.

>>> Asian Update

Asian Market Update: AUD rebounds as Australia trade deficit narrows; USD longs take profits


***Economic Data***
- (AU) AUSTRALIA AUG TRADE BALANCE (A$): -787M V -800ME (5th consecutive month of deficit)
- (AU) AUSTRALIA AUG BUILDING APPROVALS M/M: 3.0% (3-month high) V 1.0%E; Y/Y:14.5% V 12.7%E
- (NZ) NEW ZEALAND SEPT ANZ COMMODITY PRICE M/M: -1.3% (7th consecutive decline) V -3.3% PRIOR
- (JP) JAPAN LOANS & DISCOUNTS CORP Y/Y: 2.1% V 2.0% PRIOR
- (JP) JAPAN SEPT MONETARY BASE Y/Y: 35.3% V 40.5% PRIOR; MONETARY BASE END OF PERIOD: ¥252.6T V ¥243.5T PRIOR

***Index Snapshot (as of 02:30 GMT)***
- Nikkei225 -1.7%, S&P/ASX -0.7%, Kospi-1.0 %, Shanghai Composite closed, Hang Seng closed, Dec S&P500 flat at 1,940

***Commodities/Fixed Income***
- Dec gold +0.2% at $1,217/oz, Nov crude oil +0.1% at $90.82/brl, Dec copper +0.2% at $3.03/lb
- SLV: iShares Silver Trust ETF daily holdings rise to 10,888 tonnes from 10,762 tonnes prior; multi-year high
- GLD: SPDR Gold Trust ETF daily holdings fall 1.2 tonnes to 769.9 tonnes; Lowest level since Dec 2008
- JGB: (JP) Japan MoF sells ¥2.20T in 0.5% (0.5% prior) 10-yr notes; Avg Yield: 0.516% v 0.522% prior; bid-to-cover: 3.48x v 3.58x prior
- (JP) Japan investors bought net ¥184.6B in foreign bonds v bought ¥770.5B in prior week; Foreign investors sold net ¥41.6B in Japan stocks v bought ¥294.0B in prior week

***Market Focal Points/Key Themes/FX***
- Return of FX market volatility has taken the greenback on a wild ride in the early part of the Asian session, as overextended USD-long positioning swung the other way. Soft US Manufacturing ISM and a growing sense of disinflation produced some short-term repricing of the Fed intentions, with fixed income rallying sharply in the past 24 hours across the globe and curve. Traders are also increasingly cautious ahead of the upcoming ECB decision, the Hong Kong Occupy Central deadline for CY Leung to step down, and the non-farm payrolls on Friday, not to mention the broader economic headwinds from US ebola scare. AUD/USD was up nearly 100pips from the lows above $0.88, in part helped by a smaller than expected trade deficit and a rise in building approvals. NZD/USD is particularly volatile with a 150pip jump above $0.7920, while USD/JPY is down 50pips around ¥108.60, sending Nikkei225 down nearly 2%. Tracking USD weakness, Gold was up as much as $10 above $1,224.

- Australia Trade Balance narrowed from a deficit of A$1.36B to A$787M. Among notable components, exports to China rose nearly 10% to A$8.3B, while shipments of iron ore and coal were also up 20% and 5.6%. RBA's Edey said the central bank is considering steps to tighten mortgage lending standards, but also noted the caps on loan-to-value ratios (as implemented by RBNZ) were not likely. Edey continued to push for a govt-driven increase in housing supply to resolve the threat of a property market bubble, noting "we can not improve housing affordability simply by adding to demand."

- Hong Kong-related uncertainty remains elevated, with China state media announcing the govt will "not give an inch" of compromise over the Occupy Central protest. Recall that some of the movement leaders have demanded for CY Leung to announce resignation by Thursday evening (local time), though the "or else" component of the "ultimatum" were not clear.

***Equities***
US markets:
- RLD: Holder Starboard proposes acquisition of RLD at $12/shr in cash, increases stake to 9.9% from 9.1% - 13D/A filing; +25.1% afterhours
- DTV: NFL and DIRECTV extend NFL SUNDAY TICKET in new multi-year deal; Specific terms of the agreement were not disclosed; +1.5% afterhours
- ARG: To increase argon prices 15%; +1.3% afterhours
- AGU: Guides Q3 $0.45-0.55 v $0.70e, Provides Update on H2; -3.6% afterhours

Notable movers by sector:
- Consumer discretionary: Wofit.com Holdings WTF.AU +6.6% (ACCC will not oppose Expedia acquisition); Lawson Inc 2651.JP -1.0% (To acquire stake in convenience store operator Poplar); Hokuetsu Kishu Paper 3865.JP -1.1% (press report on H1 results, to miss forecast)
- Technology: Samsung Electronics 005930.KR -0.8% (speculation to halt LED lighting business); Inotera Memories 3474.TW +3.2% (reports Samsung may not increase DRAM production)
- Industrials: Honda Motor 7267.JP -3.6% (cuts domestic production on recalls, tax increase)
- Healthcare: Hisamitsu Pharmaceutical 4530.JP -1.5% (H1 guidance)
- Energy: Beach Energy BPT.AU -1.8% (Chevron may drop JV)

Reuters : Dallas Ebola patient vomited outside apartment on

Dallas Ebola patient vomited outside apartment on way to hospital

DALLAS (Reuters) - Two days after he was sent home from a Dallas hospital, the man who is the first person to be diagnosed with Ebola in the United States was seen vomiting on the ground outside an apartment complex as he was bundled into an ambulance.

"His whole family was screaming. He got outside and he was throwing up all over the place," resident Mesud Osmanovic, 21, said on Wednesday, describing the chaotic scene before the man was admitted to Texas Health Presbyterian Hospital on Sunday where he is in serious condition.

The hospital cited the man's privacy as the reason for not identifying him. However, Gee Melish, who said he was a family friend, identified the man in Texas infected with Ebola as Thomas Eric Duncan.

The New York Times said that Duncan, in his mid-40s, helped transport a pregnant woman suffering from Ebola to a hospital in Liberia, where she was turned away for lack of space. Duncan helped bring the woman back to her family's home and carried her into the house, where she later died, the newspaper reported. Four days later Duncan left for the United States, the Times said, citing the woman's parents and neighbors.

Texas health officials said that up to 18 people, including five children, had contact with the Ebola patient after he traveled to the United States from Liberia in late September. The children had gone to school early this week but have since been sent home and are being monitored for symptoms.

The Dallas Ebola case has prompted national concern over the potential for a wider spread of the deadly virus from West Africa, where at least 3,338 people have died in the worst outbreak on record.

U.S. health officials have said the country's healthcare system was well prepared to contain any spread of Ebola, through careful tracking of people who had contact with the patient and appropriate care for those admitted to hospital.

U.S. stocks fell sharply. Airline and hotel company shares dropped over concerns that Ebola's spread outside Africa might curtail travel.

Drugmakers with experimental Ebola treatments in the pipeline saw their shares rise.

SENT HOME

The patient had initially sought treatment at Texas Health Presbyterian Hospital late on Thursday and was sent home with antibiotics rather than being observed further, even though he told a nurse he had recently returned from West Africa. By Sunday, he needed an ambulance to return to the same hospital, where he was admitted.

A nurse asked about the travel as part of a triage checklist and was told about it. "Regretfully, that information was not fully communicated throughout the full teams. As a result, the full import of that information wasn’t factored into the full decision making," Texas hospital official Mark Lester said.

Infectious disease experts said that time gap represented a critical missed opportunity that may have led others to be exposed to the virus.

At the apartment complex, Osmanovic said he met the man three times over the years when he was visiting his family. Most of the neighborhood is from Liberia, Somalia or the Sudan. Osmanovic is from Bosnia.

The only sign Wednesday of the family's presence was someone occasionally pulling back the white blinds to peek out into the parking lot. A security officer blocked the entrance to the complex, with instructions only to let residents in and out.

Dr. Christopher Perkins, Dallas County Health and Human Services Medical Director, said that of the 18 people who had been in contact, many were "close family members."

The children among them "did not have any symptoms and so the odds of them passing on any sort of virus is very low," said Mike Miles, Dallas Independent School District superintendent.

Miles said the four different schools they attended would be staffed with additional health professionals and classes would remain in session.

Texas officials said health workers who took care of the patient had so far tested negative for the virus and there were no other suspected cases in the state. Texas Governor Rick Perry told a news conference he was confident the virus would be contained, as did other officials.

Ebola spreads through contact with bodily fluids such as blood or saliva, which health experts say limits its potential to infect others, unlike airborne diseases. Still, the long window of time before patients exhibit signs of infection, such as fever, vomiting and diarrhea, means an infected person can travel without detection.

While past outbreaks killed as many as 90 percent of victims, the current epidemic's fatality rate has averaged about 50 percent in West Africa.

The patient arrived in Texas on Sept. 20, and first sought treatment six days later, according to the U.S. Centers for Disease Control. The Liberian government said that the man showed no signs of fever or other symptoms of Ebola when he left the country on Sept. 19.

A Liberian official said the man traveled through Brussels to the United States. United Airlines said in a statement that the man took one of its flights from Brussels to Washington Dulles Airport, where he changed planes to travel to Dallas-Fort Worth.

Abe Says GPIF Fund Revamp Will Ultimately Benefit Japan Economy

+------------------------------------------------------------------------------+

BFW 10/02 02:15 *ABE: WILL CONTINUE TO MANAGE GPIF FUNDS WITH LONG-TERM VIEW BN 10/02 02:10 *ABE: WILL CONTINUE TO MANAGE GPIF FUNDS WITH LONG-TERM VIEW BN 10/02 02:09 *ABE: WILL CONTINUE TO MANAGE GPIF FUNDS SAFELY, EFFICIENTLY BN 10/02 02:07 *ABE: WOULD BE GOOD TO HAVE JAPAN-CHINA SUMMIT AT APEC MEETING BFW 10/02 02:06 *ABE SAYS WANT BETTER RELATIONS WITH CHINA, S. KOREA BN 10/02 02:06 *ABE: WANT BETTER RELATIONS WITH CHINA, S. KOREA BN 10/02 02:04 *ABE: GPIF REVAMP WILL ULTIMATELY BENEFIT JAPAN ECONOMY BN 10/02 02:03 *JAPAN PRIME MINISTER ABE SPEAKS IN PARLIAMENT BFW 10/02 02:03 *ABE: MANAGING PENSION FUNDS OUT OF INTEREST OF PENSIONEES

+------------------------------------------------------------------------------+

Abe Says GPIF Fund Revamp Will Ultimately Benefit Japan Economy 2014-10-02 02:19:50.143 GMT

By Keiichi Yamamura Oct. 2 (Bloomberg) -- Prime Minister Shinzo Abe tells parliament Japan’s government pension fund will continue to operate with long-term view and manage funds in a safe and efficient manner. * Abe, speaking in Tokyo, says fund is managed out of interest of retirees * Related Story: Reforming GPIF Not Aimed at Boosting Stock Prices, Abe Says: {NSN NCP7DM6JTSEB <go>}

Link to Company News:{GPIVFZ JP <Equity> CN <GO>}

For Related News and Information: First Word scrolling panel: {FIRST<GO>} First Word newswire: {NH BFW<GO>}

To contact the reporter on this story: Keiichi Yamamura in 東京 at +81-3-3201-8656 or kyamamura@bloomberg.net

To contact the editor responsible for this story: Lily Nonomiya at +81-3-3201-2056 or lnonomiya@bloomberg.net

>>> US After Hours

After Hours Summary: AGU -4.5% following earnings/guidance

After Hours Gainers:

Companies trading higher in after hours in reaction to news: ESPR +29.4% (announced positive top-line Phase 2b results for ETC-1002, an investigational therapy for patients with hypercholesterolemia), RLD +19.2% (Starboard raises stake to 9.9% and delivered a letter to the Board proposing to acquire the company for $12 per share), DRL +5.0% (provided an update on status of its capital plan: co maintains readily available liquidity sources of ~$1 bln), LEU +4.2% (Co elected Mikel Williams as its chairman; current president and CEO John Welch will step down on October 17, 2014, and the board has begun the process of selecting the next CEO), DTV +1.3% (Co and NFL extended and expanded DIRECTV's exclusive rights to carry NFL SUNDAY TICKET), ARG +1.3% (to increase argon prices by up to 15%, effective November 1 or as contracts permit)

After Hours Losers:

Companies trading lower in after hours in reaction to earnings: AGU -4.4%

Companies trading lower in after hours in reaction to news: WILN -12.3% (co provided a litigation update: a judge issued a ruling today that grants Apple's motion for summary judgment), NLNK -9.5% (announced appointment of Jack Henneman as Chief Financial Officer following departure of Gordon H. Link, Jr.), DGLY -3.8% (filed for ~1.19 mln share common stock offering by selling shareholders), RDUS -1.7% (announced proposed public offering of common stock, size not disclosed), PPG -1.7% (announced a U.S. District Court affirmed confirmation of the current Pittsburgh Corning plan of reorganization), RVNC -1.5% (announced expected delay in results from Phase 3 study of RT001 for the treatment of lateral canthal (crow's feet) lines), MRD -1.5% (filed for ~27.8 mln share common stock offering by selling shareholders)