Deficit in 2014: the Court of Auditors fear a "close" deficit of 4%
The deficit could even be "slightly" more than 4% if the growth is not at the rendezvous, prevent judges from the Court of Auditors.
The report released Tuesday morning by the Court of Auditors promises to enliven parliamentary debates coming days on the supplementary budget (see document below). Leaning on the situation and the outlook for public finances, the magistrates of the rue Cambon serious doubts on multi-year commitments of France on deficit reduction. And when even that Bercy has just revised upwards its target for 2014 of 3.6% to 3.8% in the draft Finance Act amending, it "may be exceeded," warns the Court. According to her, "it could nevertheless be p close to 4% of GDP in 2014, slightly above see if the government growth forecast did not come true".
Lower input tax revenue
Magistrates highlight several risks to the government's target. The first is to lower tax revenues entries. Actant that taxes fall ill in the state coffers, Bercy just lowered its forecast of 5.3 billion compared to initial budget. Enough! Says in substance the Court of Auditors, for whom "there is a risk to fall 2 to 3 billion euros." And again, this is assuming that growth is well 1% on average this year, as stipulated by the Government.
But on this point, the High Council of Public Finance last week, indicated that, without being out of reach, this prediction "now seemed high," says the Court. As in 2013, is on the revenue side that disappointment may come. The expenditure side, the Court considers "moderate" risk of exceeding. The side of the state, where Bercy has canceled 1.6 billion euros of credits during the year, new goals "can and must be achieved." But there is "no safety margin for unexpected expenses," she warns. In contrast, the side of local authorities exceeded expenditure targets is "probable."
The Court of Auditors did not write well, but in his eyes, a deficit to 4% this year (against 4.3% in 2013) thus appears already as a minimum. What a domino effect weakens public finances trajectory leads to the following years. And a fortiori, the ability of France to maintain its objective of 3% in 2015. Regarding the outlook for 2015-2017, "the actual and structural deficits and public debt could be higher than those registered in the stability program, said the Court. While Bercy sees debt to stabilize at 95.6% of GDP in 2015 before declining, judges judge "probable" that it increases "at least" until the end of 2015.
Difficult to achieve the 21 billion planned economies
The risk of not holding objectives "is particularly important for the year 2015." While the risks on the revenue are not "significant", the "main problem" is to achieve 21 billion euros in savings programmed. Bercy, in fact, predicted that 40% of the effort plan to save 50 billion from 2015 to 2017 leads in the first year. "Very ambitious" goal judge court. And even more so that "it appears that many economies will be the same each year or increasing over time, which is hardly compatible with a concentration of their effects on 2015."
For judges, with the objectives of spending in 2015, is actually based on the assumption of a "sharp decline in local investment and the construction of a very tight budget for the state." But on the first point, the local authorities could at least reduce their investments in increasing the rates of local taxes and borrowing more, their financing conditions had improved, the Court is concerned. On the second point, the necessary savings to the state assume "deep reforms" (rather than shots plane) while the savings that result from the process of modernization of public action (MAP) "are still far to be up to this challenge. "
In total, "with the objectives of public deficit and structural strength for 2015 will be in these circumstances, very difficult," the judge Court of Auditors. It further recalls that the effort will be based on stakeholders (local authorities, Unédic) "which the state does not control spending." What promise new heated discussions between Paris and Brussels in the coming months.
Lower tax burden limited to 14 billion from 2015 to 2017
Pressed by its majority and anxious to avoid a new tax ras-le-bol, the executive wants to engage in a lower tax burden. This will be very limited, however, said the Court of Auditors in its annual report on public finances. Magistrates figure to 14 billion euros over three years net decrease in the tax burden induced by the new measures. If the pact responsibility and scalability CICE represent relief 35 billion euros, the government budget strategy presented in April provides "a parallel increase other taxes amounting to 21 billion." And include, for example, higher rates of climate-energy contribution (2000000000) and the contribution to the public electricity service (3000000000); replacing the heavy weight tax (1 billion) or higher local tax rates (4000000000).