NYT : Shire Said to Hire Goldman Sachs as an Adviser

Goldman Sachs has been hired by Shire as the London-listed drug maker confronts a takeover offer, according to people briefed on the matter.

Shire turned down a $46 billion bid from Chicago-based AbbVie last week. But people briefed on the matter said AbbVie was likely to come back with a higher offer. Allergan, which is fending off a takeover attempt from Valeant Pharmaceuticals, has also been rumored as a bidder for Shire.

Shire, based in Ireland, is an attractive target for big American pharmaceuticals companies looking for a deal that would allow them to affect an inversion, a term for reincorporating abroad to lower their tax rate and free up overseas cash.

By hiring Goldman Sachs, Shire adds a firm renowned for its takeover defense skills to an already formidable roster of advisers. Evercore, Morgan Stanley and Citi are already working for Shire on its defense.

The hiring of Goldman also appears to make it far less likely that Allergan would make a bid for Shire. Goldman Sachs is advising Allergan is its defense against the takeover attempt by Valeant, setting up a potential conflict for the bank if one of its clients tried to bid for another.

Goldman declined to comment.

AbbVie has until July 18 to either make a firm offer for Shire, or walk away for the time being. JPMorgan is advising AbbVie.

On Monday, Shire made its case for staying independent. It said it believed it could double its revenue over the next seven years, to about $10 billion, and promoted the promise of its existing portfolio of drugs.

NYT : Realizing the American Apparel Chief Isn’t Wearing Any Clothes

Dov Charney is completely naked. He is dancing in what looks like an office or studio, talking on his cellphone while he jams to “This Must Be the Place” by Talking Heads. Two women are there with him, possibly employees.

“I’m dancing right now for Daisy,” Mr. Charney, still the chief executive of American Apparel at the time, announces, glancing at one of the women. The other woman records the entire scene on a mobile phone, and asks him to “shake your booty.”

Before the video cuts out, Mr. Charney looks at the camera and says: “Stop it. You’re going to get me in trouble.”

Well, it is a little late for that now.

Mr. Charney, who founded American Apparel, once an upstart darling retailer, was ousted last week by the company’s board. He long lived under the shadow of speculation about inappropriate behavior with female employees and, in some cases, accusations of sexual harassment and assault that he always denied. He championed American Apparel through sexually suggestive advertising that became, in large part, the company’s brand.

Mr. Charney’s dismissal raises all sorts of thorny corporate-governance questions for investors and boards about iconic — and notorious — leaders, especially in creative fields. Corporate America is filled with examples of chief executives and founders who stepped down after proof, or even suggestions, of impropriety. Some are fired quickly when investors and boards are alerted. But others, like Mr. Charney, are allowed to linger in their roles for years.

“Of course they knew — if they didn’t know, their heads were in the sand,” said Nell Minow, a founder of the governance advisory firm GMI Ratings. “The problem is the board is so invested in their pal, their hero, that it’s very hard to get them to look him in the eye and say, ‘You have to go.’ ”

There has been a spate of resignations and firings over the last couple of years related to misbehavior or inappropriate comments. Lululemon Athletica’s founder, Dennis J. Wilson, resigned as its chief after he was widely criticized by female customers for saying, “Quite frankly, some women’s bodies just actually don’t work” for wearing his company’s yoga pants. Mr. Wilson, who remains on Lululemon’s board of directors, is now considering a bid for the entire company.

Abercrombie & Fitch’s chief executive, Michael S. Jeffries, lost his chairman title after drawing criticism for a series of bizarre comments, as when he once said: “Candidly, we go after the cool kids. We go after the attractive all-American kid with a great attitude and a lot of friends. A lot of people don’t belong.”

Gary Friedman, the chairman and co-chief executive of Restoration Hardware, was fired after accusations were made about an inappropriate but consensual relationship with an employee. He briefly became a consultant to the company ahead of its initial public offering only to return to his old positions within a year.

You don’t need the 20/20 vision of hindsight to have known Mr. Charney was a ticking time bomb. He was repeatedly sued by employees and former employees, and the board was well aware of the cases. The not-safe-for-work video in which he dances in the buff, and other photos, litter the Internet and can be found with a quick Google search.

In one case in California Superior Court, a potential employee, Kimbra Lo, filed a lawsuit contending that when she went for a job interview with Mr. Charney, he was “wearing only a towel” and later attacked her and “forced her to perform various sexual acts.” Mr. Charney denies it.

Often, as now appears to be the case with Mr. Charney, a board becomes so convinced that the company is wrapped up in a founder’s personal image that it is slow to replace the chief when necessary. It fears that the firing will upend the company’s image or culture and cause other key employees to leave out of loyalty.

“There is a danger that the founder becomes too identified with the brand,” said Charles M. Elson, a professor of governance at the University of Delaware.

In Mr. Charney’s case, his control of 27 percent of the company may have made it even harder for the board to oust him. “If you get him angry, it is relatively easy for him to make sure you don’t come back,” Mr. Elson said. “It is a credible threat.”

The situation changes when the image of the brand becomes tarnished and it starts to cost shareholders money. American Apparel’s board members felt they could finally rid themselves of the founder, people close to the company said, because the company’s performance turned for the worse. The company had lost money repeatedly for the last four years, totaling about $270 million in red ink, and same-store sales were dropping precipitously as well, about 7 percent in the most recent quarter.

Observers cheered Mr. Charney’s dismissal almost immediately.

“We believe investors will generally view this news positively, given perceived prior mismanagement and the potential for reduced future headline risk,” Roth Capital Partners wrote in an analyst report to its clients.

Most investors, of course, seemed to always know about Mr. Charney’s bad behavior. Eric Beder, an analyst at Brean Capital, wrote in a note to investors, matter-of-factly: “We expect the sordid details to become apparent in the near term.”

Apparently, the final straw for the board was news that Mr. Charney had knowingly failed to stop the online publication of naked pictures of a former employee who had accused him of sexually harassing her.

Mr. Charney is, as you might imagine, trying to fight his dismissal, suing the company in hopes of getting his job back.

“We question the legitimacy and thoroughness of any investigation that did not involve any discussion whatsoever with Mr. Charney,” his lawyer wrote, contending that the accusations “involve activities that occurred long ago (if at all) and about which the board and the company have had knowledge for years.”

Which is exactly why he should have been gone long ago, face of the brand or not.

Le Figaro : Fine BNP Paribas: who will pay the bill?

Shareholders will, from a financial point, the first victims of this case.

ADVERTISING
BNP Paribas and American authorities investigating his case, would have agreed to a fine of between 8 and 9 billion (6.5 billion euros). This amount is bearable by the bank. It should perform without a capital increase. Bond issuance and asset sales allow him to cross the course. The overall results for the year 2014 will also be absorbed. Overview of the different actors involved in this case.
• No dividend to shareholders: a shock to the Belgian budget
Shareholders will, from a financial point of view, the first victims of this case. To absorb the shock of such a fine, the bank should fall into the red in 2014. It therefore does not distribute dividends. For the Belgian State , which owns 10.30% of BNP Paribas since the purchase of Fortis, this deletion would be a true fiscal shock. In 2012 and 2013, Brussels had received 192 million euros in dividends for its stake in the bank.
• A year without incentive for bank employees
Employee shareholders will also draw a line on their dividends. In case of losses, they will not touch either incentive. Increases also may be severely downgraded. Traders' bonuses could well be trimmed. Which in this highly volatile market could cause leakage of operators to higher variable compensation.
• The French budget: BNP Paribas remain a good taxpayer
The Finance Act 2008 establishes, in Article 23, a general principle of non-deductibility of financial penalties. The fine BNP Paribas is therefore not deductible. The bank, one of the first countries taxpayers just behind Total should still pay heavy taxes in France this year, even if the institution a loss. In 2013, the bank paid nearly $ 2 billion of taxes to the French government.
• Customers of the bank will not be affected
Clients, individuals and businesses will not be affected by the case. BNP Paribas investment will not be affected. An admission of guilt arise however subject to U.S. institutional clients. Many funds have indeed committed to not deal with organizations convicted in the United States.

>>> What to look at today - 24/06/2014

US Market Closed near the flat line, Slim losses pushed investors to buy some protections VIX @ 10,97 +1,11%, Volume are still low @ 560mil shares...Big Movers FMC -4,88% (PW), WEC -3,45% (M&A), LO -2,53%, ALXN -2,32%, COH-2,04%, JOY -2,04%, TEG +12,14% (M&A), FCX+3,38%, ACT +2,06%...AAPL said to start production of new iPhone next month...Asia traded in line with US better on Manufacturing data Nikkei +0.08% HS+0.34% Shanghai +0.19%

Macro
- Japan Pension Should Weigh Sitting on Cash After Dumping Bonds, Ito Says

Eur$ 1.3596 S&P -0.08% Eurostoxx +0.12% FTSE +0.08% Dax +0.05% SMI +0.37%

Keep an eye on :
- AIR FP : Emirates to Talk With Airbus, Boeing in late 2014 or in 2015: FT
- ALO FP : Vinci, Alstom Win Contract to Build Qatar Tramway
- ATC NA : LAnches sale of 17,9mil shares through Deutsche Bank (worth E950mil) ~ 8,78% of Cap, will increase free float by 35% ( 51,7mil to 69,7mil shares) - price range 50,90 to mkt price (Closed @ 53), Altice using proceeds for EU529m cash payment to Carlyle and Cinven for their 14% stake in Numericable, and to reduce net debt
- BEN FP : Beneteau Acquires U.S. Boatmaker RecBoats; Terms Undisclosed
- BNP FP : BNP Would Need Asset, Bond Sales to Pay $9B Fine: Figaro
- BP IM : Banco Popolare Considers Delay in Sale of Bad Debt: Reuters Link
- COLR BB : Colruyt FY EPS Misses Ests.; 4Q Retail Rev. Growth Slows to 1.2%
- CSGN VX : Buy UBS vs Credit Suisse on Higher Capital Return, JPMorgan Says
- AM FP : Qatar's Al Thani is to meet French President Hollande to discuss bilateral ties, may discuss purchase of Dassault Rafale fighter aircraft
- GALP PL : ENI complete sale of !% of Galp's share
- IHG LN : InterContinental Hotels/Wyndham Deal Unlikely: Credit Suisse
- SAP GY : No Competition from SAP in Oracle’s Micros Deal, Summit Says
- SHP LN : Shire Bid of ~GBP50/Shr Possible in Coming Month, Bernstein Says
- SHP LN : AbbVie, Allergan Only Likely Suitors for Shire, UBS Says
- SHP LN : Shire Said to Hire Goldman Sachs as Advisor: NYT Link
- SSABA SS : SSAB may extend offer period for Rautaruukki
- SYNN VX : Monsanto Said to Have Weighed $40bil Tax-Inspired Deal to Buy Syngenta bbg
- THR BB : Adage Capital Raises Short Position in ThromboGenics to 3.63% --> stcok -10% today
- THR BB : ThromboGenics Is No Longer for Sale, De Tijd Reports
- DG FP : Vinci, Alstom Win Contract to Build Qatar Tramway
- UBSN VX : Buy UBS vs Credit Suisse on Higher Capital Return, JPMorgan Says

>>> Bokers Upgrades & Downgrades

>>> Up
*A2A RAISED TO NEUTRAL VS SELL AT GOLDMAN
*ASOS RAISED TO BUY VS NEUTRAL AT NOMURA
*BMW RAISED TO BUY VS NEUTRAL AT UBS
*CGG RAISED TO BUY VS HOLD AT SOCGEN
*DO & CO RAISED TO BUY VS HOLD AT KEPLER CHEUVREUX
*REN RAISED TO NEUTRAL VS SELL AT GOLDMAN
*SHANKS GROUP RAISED TO BUY VS NEUTRAL AT GOLDMAN

>>> Down
*AB INBEV CUT TO HOLD FROM BUY AT ING
*DAIMLER CUT TO NEUTRAL VS BUY AT UBS
*GN STORE CUT TO NEUTRAL VS BUY AT UBS
*INVESTMENT TECHNOLOGY CUT TO NEUTRAL VS OVERWEIGHT AT JPMORGAN
*SEVERN TRENT CUT TO NEUTRAL VS BUY AT GOLDMAN
*TESCO CUT TO NEUTRAL VS OUTPERFORM AT EXANE, PT 305P VS 355P
*UNITED UTILITIES CUT TO NEUTRAL VS BUY AT GOLDMAN

>>> PT Change
*AB INBEV PT RAISED TO EU87 FROM EU84 AT ING
*AVIVA CUT TO NEUTRAL VS BUY AT UBS
*ENEL PT RAISED 13% TO EU4.05 AT GOLDMAN; KEPT AT SELL
*HERA PT RAISED 6% TO EU2.7 AT GOLDMAN; KEPT AT CONVICTION BUY
*SHIRE PT RAISED TO $280 FROM $202 AT PIPER JAFFRAY
*SNAM PT RAISED 6% TO EU4.4 AT GOLDMAN; KEPT AT NEUTRAL
*TERNA PT RAISED 7% TO EU3.8 AT GOLDMAN; KEPT AT SELL

>>>Initiation
*APPLUS RATED NEW NEUTRAL AT CITI, PT EU18
*SMITH & NEPHEW REINSTATED AT NEUTRAL AT GOLDMAN; PT 1,070P

>>> Call
>> Stock
*ANGLO AMERICAN SHORT RECOMMENDATION REMOVED FROM JPMORGAN AFL
* Buy UBS vs Credit Suisse on Higher Capital Return, JPMorgan Says

>>> Asian Update

Asian Market Update: Sentiment brightens as manufacturing figures from China, US, Japan recover

***Economic Data*** - (CN) CHINA MAY CONFERENCE BOARD LEADING ECONOMIC INDEX M/M: 0.7% V 1.0% PRIOR - (VN) Vietnam June Consumer Price Index (CPI) Y/Y: 5.0% v 4.9%e - (AU) Australia ANZ Roy Morgan Weekly Consumer Confidence Index: 105.7 v 103.2 prior

Market Snapshot (as of 03:30 GMT): - Nikkei225 -0.4%, S&P/ASX -0.4%, Kospi +1.0%, Shanghai Composite +0.1%, Hang Seng +0.2%, Jun S&P500 -0.2% at 1,950, Aug gold -0.1% at $1,316, Aug crude oil -0.5% at $105.65/brl

Market Focal Points/Key Themes: - Oil prices retreat as pro-Russia rebels agree to ceasefire in Ukraine and Iraqi military claims small gains vs ISIS. - China liquidity drain slows to a trickle with CNY18B - smallest in a month. - China Conference Board economic index growth slows. - Japan awaits more detail on the "trajectory" of 3rd arrow of Abenomics.

***Speakers/Political/In the Papers*** - (CN) China Academy of Social Sciences (CASS) researcher Yin Jianfeng: China should cut RRR for time deposits - Chinese press - (NZ) RBNZ Dep Gov Bascand: House price inflation is moderating - financial press - (NZ) Magnitude 7.2 reported approx 105 mi SE of Raoul Island, New Zealand - USGS - (IQ) Sunni rebels (ISIS) capture Iraq's main oil refinery located at Baiji, north of Baghdad - financial press - USGS reports magnitude 8.0 quake near Little Sitkin Island, in the Bering Sea off the coast of Alaska - (IQ) Kurdish Region President Barzani: The time is here for the Kurds to determine their own future - CNN interview

***Fixed Income/Commodities/Currencies*** - (CN) PBoC to drain CNY18B in 28-day repos (36th consecutive drain) - (AU) Australia MoF (AOFM) sells A$100M in 2.0% indexed bonds maturing in 2035; Avg yield: 1.6138%; Bid-to-cover: 5.77x (highest coverage ratio in 11 months) - GLD: SPDR Gold Trust ETF daily holdings rise 2.4 tonnes to 785.0 tonnes (first rise since June 3rd)

***Equities*** US markets: - RRMS: Guides FY14 EBITDA higher $115-120M ($92-97M prior); Semgroup also guides higher; Completes Acquisition of Additional Interest in White Cliffs Pipeline From SemGroup Corporation; +1.0% afterhours - GPS: Exec: To increase hourly pay to $9 by 2014, $10 by 2015 - financial press interview; flat afterhours - MU: Reports Q3 $0.79 v $0.72e, R$3.98B v $3.88Be; -0.7% afterhours - DF: Follow up: Deans Foods, Clorox said to have been subpoenaed in Icahn insider trading case - financial press; -0.9% afterhours

- AAPL: Said to prepare to introduce two iPhone models with larger-screen; May start production in July - financial press

Notable movers by sector: - Consumer Discretionary: Kathmandu Holdings KMD.AU -10.8% (provides disappointing guidance); Chinese Universe Publishing and Media 600373.CN +10.0% (acquisition) - Materials: Panoramic Resources PAN.AU +3.4% (analyst action); Atlas Iron AGO.AU -4.8% (analyst action); Arrium Ltd ARI.AU -5.2% (analyst action) - Energy: Guanghui Energy 600256.CN +2.3% (H1 guidance); Liquefied Natural Gas LNG.AU +8.2% (shareholder raises stake) - Technology: Toshiba Corp 6502.JP -1.1% (drops bid of Alstom's power grid business) - Telecom: Coolpad 2369.HK +6.7% (positive profit alert)

FT : BG gains on latest break-up speculation

BG gains on latest break-up speculation

A new twist on break-up speculation meant BG Group outperformed a falling market.
The latest theory, via Deutsche Bank, was that BG should spin out its liquefied natural gas (LNG) business. Bundling the assets together would refocus BG on production growth, as well as taking the pressure off management to sell down its prized exploration fields in Brazil, the broker said.

BG “contains two distinct and attractive businesses – one focused on the LNG chain, the other Brazilian oil”, said Deutsche. But the group’s scale and disparate focus had undermined management’s ability to maximise value, as well as repelling potential bidders, the broker said.
BG promised accelerated disposals after Chris Finlayson was removed as chief executive in April in an apparent row over strategy. But with sellers of oilfields outnumbering buyers, the strategy risked diluting long-term value, said Deutsche.
Instead, BG should create an integrated LNG producer by bundling gas fields together with its shipping and marketing businesses. The predictable cashflows from such a business would attract yield investors as well as being able to wear most of BG’s $14bn of net debt, Deutsche said.
It reckoned a separate BG LNG would be worth about 720p per share based on peer multiples. The remaining BG business, with sector-leading growth coming from its Santos basin project in Brazil, would have a valuation of at least 700p, it said.
BG closed up 2.5 per cent to £12.71. The stock has advanced 10.9 per cent since Mr Finlayson left.
A quiet wider market left the FTSE 100 lower by 24.64 points or 0.4 per cent to 6,800.56.
Kentz jumped 32.2 per cent to 929p after Canada’s SNC Lavalin made a 935p-cash-per-share bid for the oil services engineer. A binding recommendation from Kentz’s largest shareholder and SNC’s use of a scheme of arrangement for the deal both pointed to very little chance of a counterbid, dealers said.
Analysts saw little readthrough for UK sector peers, which do not overlap Kentz’s niche of upstream cost-plus services. Cape was 3.5 per cent higher at 298p and Lamprell rose 2.7 per cent to 151.3p.
Amec, which last year had offers for Kentz of up to 580p rejected, was down 1.3 per cent to £12.33.
Lonmin gained 4.5 per cent to 259.6p on reports that South Africa’s Association of Mineworkers and Construction Union had accepted a wage deal, ending a five-month strike by platinum workers. The stock has tumbled about 21 per cent since the strike began.
Other miners were supported by Chinese data suggesting that manufacturing activity was at a seven-month high. BHP Billiton was up 1.9 per cent to £19.38, Rio Tinto gained 1.6 per cent to £31.27 and Fresnillo added 1.7 per cent to 861p.
Foxtons lost 4.3 per cent to 268p after Goldman Sachs started coverage with a “neutral” rating. It saw Howden Joinery, up 2.2 per cent to 296.7p, as a better-value play on the UK housing market.
Smith & Nephew lost 1.9 per cent to £10.59 after it temporarily suspended US distribution of wound therapy product, having been told that product required new regulatory clearances. Morgan Stanley reckoned the halt would only cost S&N about $15m of sales, or about 1 per cent of the group total.

>>> US After Hours

After Hours Summary: SONC +1.5%, XEL +0.2%, GIGA -10.2%, MU -0.4% following earnings/guidance

After Hours Gainers: Companies trading higher in after hours in reaction to earnings: SONC +1.5%, XEL +0.2%

Companies trading higher in after hours in reaction to news: CRMD +5.4% (finalized pivotal Phase 3 study protocol for FDA), OHRP +4.4% (co to host conference call and webcast to discuss Squalamine interim Phase 2 data in wet-AMD on Tuesday, June 24, 2014 at 8:30 am ET), ZPIN +3.9% (Tiger Global Investments disclosed 18.6% passive stake in 13G filing), CAW +1.2% (stated its policy is not to comment on unusual market activity), HCLP +0.6% (announced new long-term frac sand purchase agreement with Halliburton)

After Hours Losers:

Companies trading lower in after hours in reaction to earnings: GIGA -10.2%, MU -0.4%

Companies trading lower in after hours in reaction to news: KNOP -7.9% (announced public offering of 4.6 mln common units; announced the entry into acquisition agreements for the purchase of the Hilda Knutsen and Torill Knutsen; management recommended $0.035 increase to quarterly cash distribution), DF -7.4% (seeing reports that authorities have subpoenaed the company in insider trading investigation involving Carl Icahn), BRX -2.5% (announced secondary offering Of 25 mln shares of common stock by selling shareholder), VNCE -1.8% (announced launch of secondary public offering of ~3.55 mln shares of common stock by selling stockholders), MELI -1.7% (intends to offer $300 mln of convertible senior notes), FANG -1.3% (announced the launch of an underwritten public offering of 2,000,000 shares of its common stock by certain selling stockholders; the shares to be sold in the offering will be sold by certain entities controlled by Wexford Capital LP and by Gulfport Energy), PANW -1.0% (announced proposed $500 mln offering of convertible senior notes due 2019), PRTA -0.9% (announced proposed offering of $100 mln of ordinary shares)

>>> US Close Dow-0,06% S&P-0,01% Nasdaq+0,01%

Closing Market Summary: Stocks Begin New Week on Quiet Note

The major averages started the week on a quiet note with the S&P 500 shedding less than a point. To be fair, the slight downtick was a function of some profit taking after the benchmark index registered six consecutive gains.

Equity indices started the day in the red and maintained narrow ranges throughout the session. The S&P 500 tried to regain its flat line shortly after the open, but could not do so as three influential sectors weighed. Specifically, consumer staples (-0.6%), health care (-0.3%), and industrials (-0.6%) slumped out of the gate and pressured the market throughout the session.

Most notably, the industrial sector finished the trading day at the bottom of the leaderboard due to broad weakness among transport stocks. The Dow Jones Transportation Average lost 0.5% with 17 of 20 components ending in the red. The five airline stocks that comprise a portion of the index all lost more than 1.0% apiece with Southwest Airlines (LUV 26.92, -0.37) leading the retreat. Despite today's loss, the Transportation remained higher by 7.8% for the quarter.

Elsewhere, the health care sector stumbled amid relative weakness in biotechnology. The iShares Nasdaq Biotechnology ETF (IBB 252.91, -2.73) lost 1.1%, trimming its quarter-to-date gain to 7.0%.

Like the high-beta biotech space, chipmakers also displayed relative weakness after Advanced Micro Devices (AMD 4.01, -0.09) and NVIDIA (NVDA 18.71, -0.22) were both downgraded to ‘Underperform' at Pacific Crest. The two stocks lost 2.2% and 1.2%, respectively, while the PHLX Semiconductor Index slipped 0.4%.

Meanwhile, large cap tech names held up well with the likes of Microsoft (MSFT 41.99, +0.31), Google (GOOGL 574.29, +7.77), and Oracle (ORCL 41.10, +0.28) climbing between 0.7% and 1.4%. For its part, Oracle rallied after announcing the acquisition of Micros (MCRS 67.98, +2.21) for $68/share.

Similar to the technology sector (+0.3%), five of the other six cyclical groups posted modest gains. Energy (+0.4%) outperformed throughout the session even as crude oil slid 0.6% to $106.18/bbl. The commodity-linked sector extended its June gain to 6.3%, while pushing its quarter-to-date advance to 12.9%.

The slim losses in equities encouraged participants to increase their demand for volatility protection, but the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX 10.97, +0.12), which rose 1.1%, still finished near multi-year lows.

Treasuries, meanwhile, did not indicate safe haven demand as the 10-yr note slipped four ticks, which pushed the benchmark yield higher by one basis point to 2.62%.

Participation remained on the light side with just under 560 million shares changing hands at the NYSE floor.

Economic data was limited to the Existing Home Sales report for May:
  • Existing home sales increased 4.9% in May to a seasonally adjusted annualized rate (SAAR) of 4.89 million from an upwardly revised 4.66 million SAAR (from 4.65 mln SAAR) in April. The consensus expected existing home sales to increase to 4.80 million SAAR. 
    • Mortgage rates, which had been moving higher for most of 2014, fell sharply over the last couple of months and helped boost sales growth, but year-over-year sales are still 5.0% below May 2013 levels. 
    • Purchases by first-time home buyers accounted for only 27% of all sales in May. That was down from 29% in April. First-time home buyers typically account for a third of home purchases during periods of normal sales trends. 
Tomorrow, the Case-Shiller 20-city Index (consensus 11.6%) and FHFA Housing Price Index will both be released at 9:00 ET, while New Home Sales for May (consensus 440K) and June Consumer Confidence (consensus 84.0) will be released at 10:00 ET.
  • S&P 500 +6.2% YTD 
  • Nasdaq Composite +4.6% YTD 
  • Dow Jones Industrial Average +2.2% YTD 
  • Russell 2000 +1.9% YTD

(ZH) The Market Has Never Been More Fearful Of An Extreme Event


The Market Has Never Been More Fearful Of An Extreme Event

 
"There's something going on in derivatives land," is the warning from ADM's Andy Ash and as Paul Mylchreest notes the relationship between VIX and SKEW suggests the options market is pricing in the possibility of a major market event. The process enables professionals to maintain the illusion of calmness in VIX while hedging their positions (as they attempt to unwind as we have shown). Whether this 'event' is a crash or melt-up is historically unclear but given the taper and the trend of the last few years, we suspect the former more likely that the latter.

 

Via ADM Investor Services' Paul Mylchreest,
A rather thought-provoking chart which we've been looking at is the ratio of the SKEW (the chance of an extreme or outlier event, i.e. OTM versus ATM options) versus the VIX (the expectations for more 'normal' day-to-day volatility - the price of hedging implied by ATM options)... and is an indicator of how the market is pricing the possibility of a potential black swan event.
You can see how extended we are right now… (actually at record highs)
 
We can’t help wondering when Bill Gross tells the world that he is selling volatility, whether he is, in fact, selling ATM vol and buying OTM vol ???
While (curiously) 2000 didn’t register, the two previous highs in the SKEW/VIX ratio were 1994 and 2007 which turned out to be pivotal dates in terms of changes in market direction.
One up and one down... Which does it look like this time?
*  *  *
Think briefly about who is buying and who is selling? Thiunk about who is buying deep OTM protection? Smells like the professionals are a little less sanguine than their chatter suggests...
Institutional clients are dumping equities off to retail clients... thank you very much...

 

and those that can't dump their assets are hedging aggressively (while maintaining the illusion with VIX that all is well)