Asian Market Update: Sentiment brightens as manufacturing figures from China, US, Japan recover
***Economic Data*** - (CN) CHINA MAY CONFERENCE BOARD LEADING ECONOMIC INDEX M/M: 0.7% V 1.0% PRIOR - (VN) Vietnam June Consumer Price Index (CPI) Y/Y: 5.0% v 4.9%e - (AU) Australia ANZ Roy Morgan Weekly Consumer Confidence Index: 105.7 v 103.2 prior
Market Snapshot (as of 03:30 GMT): - Nikkei225 -0.4%, S&P/ASX -0.4%, Kospi +1.0%, Shanghai Composite +0.1%, Hang Seng +0.2%, Jun S&P500 -0.2% at 1,950, Aug gold -0.1% at $1,316, Aug crude oil -0.5% at $105.65/brl
Market Focal Points/Key Themes: - Oil prices retreat as pro-Russia rebels agree to ceasefire in Ukraine and Iraqi military claims small gains vs ISIS. - China liquidity drain slows to a trickle with CNY18B - smallest in a month. - China Conference Board economic index growth slows. - Japan awaits more detail on the "trajectory" of 3rd arrow of Abenomics.
***Speakers/Political/In the Papers*** - (CN) China Academy of Social Sciences (CASS) researcher Yin Jianfeng: China should cut RRR for time deposits - Chinese press - (NZ) RBNZ Dep Gov Bascand: House price inflation is moderating - financial press - (NZ) Magnitude 7.2 reported approx 105 mi SE of Raoul Island, New Zealand - USGS - (IQ) Sunni rebels (ISIS) capture Iraq's main oil refinery located at Baiji, north of Baghdad - financial press - USGS reports magnitude 8.0 quake near Little Sitkin Island, in the Bering Sea off the coast of Alaska - (IQ) Kurdish Region President Barzani: The time is here for the Kurds to determine their own future - CNN interview
***Fixed Income/Commodities/Currencies*** - (CN) PBoC to drain CNY18B in 28-day repos (36th consecutive drain) - (AU) Australia MoF (AOFM) sells A$100M in 2.0% indexed bonds maturing in 2035; Avg yield: 1.6138%; Bid-to-cover: 5.77x (highest coverage ratio in 11 months) - GLD: SPDR Gold Trust ETF daily holdings rise 2.4 tonnes to 785.0 tonnes (first rise since June 3rd)
***Equities*** US markets: - RRMS: Guides FY14 EBITDA higher $115-120M ($92-97M prior); Semgroup also guides higher; Completes Acquisition of Additional Interest in White Cliffs Pipeline From SemGroup Corporation; +1.0% afterhours - GPS: Exec: To increase hourly pay to $9 by 2014, $10 by 2015 - financial press interview; flat afterhours - MU: Reports Q3 $0.79 v $0.72e, R$3.98B v $3.88Be; -0.7% afterhours - DF: Follow up: Deans Foods, Clorox said to have been subpoenaed in Icahn insider trading case - financial press; -0.9% afterhours
- AAPL: Said to prepare to introduce two iPhone models with larger-screen; May start production in July - financial press
Notable movers by sector: - Consumer Discretionary: Kathmandu Holdings KMD.AU -10.8% (provides disappointing guidance); Chinese Universe Publishing and Media 600373.CN +10.0% (acquisition) - Materials: Panoramic Resources PAN.AU +3.4% (analyst action); Atlas Iron AGO.AU -4.8% (analyst action); Arrium Ltd ARI.AU -5.2% (analyst action) - Energy: Guanghui Energy 600256.CN +2.3% (H1 guidance); Liquefied Natural Gas LNG.AU +8.2% (shareholder raises stake) - Technology: Toshiba Corp 6502.JP -1.1% (drops bid of Alstom's power grid business) - Telecom: Coolpad 2369.HK +6.7% (positive profit alert)
After Hours Summary: SONC +1.5%, XEL +0.2%, GIGA -10.2%, MU -0.4% following earnings/guidance
After Hours Gainers: Companies trading higher in after hours in reaction to earnings: SONC +1.5%, XEL +0.2%
Companies trading higher in after hours in reaction to news: CRMD +5.4% (finalized pivotal Phase 3 study protocol for FDA), OHRP +4.4% (co to host conference call and webcast to discuss Squalamine interim Phase 2 data in wet-AMD on Tuesday, June 24, 2014 at 8:30 am ET), ZPIN +3.9% (Tiger Global Investments disclosed 18.6% passive stake in 13G filing), CAW +1.2% (stated its policy is not to comment on unusual market activity), HCLP +0.6% (announced new long-term frac sand purchase agreement with Halliburton)
After Hours Losers:
Companies trading lower in after hours in reaction to earnings: GIGA -10.2%, MU -0.4%
Companies trading lower in after hours in reaction to news: KNOP -7.9% (announced public offering of 4.6 mln common units; announced the entry into acquisition agreements for the purchase of the Hilda Knutsen and Torill Knutsen; management recommended $0.035 increase to quarterly cash distribution), DF -7.4% (seeing reports that authorities have subpoenaed the company in insider trading investigation involving Carl Icahn), BRX -2.5% (announced secondary offering Of 25 mln shares of common stock by selling shareholder), VNCE -1.8% (announced launch of secondary public offering of ~3.55 mln shares of common stock by selling stockholders), MELI -1.7% (intends to offer $300 mln of convertible senior notes), FANG -1.3% (announced the launch of an underwritten public offering of 2,000,000 shares of its common stock by certain selling stockholders; the shares to be sold in the offering will be sold by certain entities controlled by Wexford Capital LP and by Gulfport Energy), PANW -1.0% (announced proposed $500 mln offering of convertible senior notes due 2019), PRTA -0.9% (announced proposed offering of $100 mln of ordinary shares)
The major averages started the week on a quiet note with the S&P 500 shedding less than a point. To be fair, the slight downtick was a function of some profit taking after the benchmark index registered six consecutive gains.
Equity indices started the day in the red and maintained narrow ranges throughout the session. The S&P 500 tried to regain its flat line shortly after the open, but could not do so as three influential sectors weighed. Specifically, consumer staples (-0.6%), health care (-0.3%), and industrials (-0.6%) slumped out of the gate and pressured the market throughout the session.
Most notably, the industrial sector finished the trading day at the bottom of the leaderboard due to broad weakness among transport stocks. The Dow Jones Transportation Average lost 0.5% with 17 of 20 components ending in the red. The five airline stocks that comprise a portion of the index all lost more than 1.0% apiece with Southwest Airlines (LUV 26.92, -0.37) leading the retreat. Despite today's loss, the Transportation remained higher by 7.8% for the quarter.
Elsewhere, the health care sector stumbled amid relative weakness in biotechnology. The iShares Nasdaq Biotechnology ETF (IBB 252.91, -2.73) lost 1.1%, trimming its quarter-to-date gain to 7.0%.
Like the high-beta biotech space, chipmakers also displayed relative weakness after Advanced Micro Devices (AMD 4.01, -0.09) and NVIDIA (NVDA 18.71, -0.22) were both downgraded to ‘Underperform' at Pacific Crest. The two stocks lost 2.2% and 1.2%, respectively, while the PHLX Semiconductor Index slipped 0.4%.
Meanwhile, large cap tech names held up well with the likes of Microsoft (MSFT 41.99, +0.31), Google (GOOGL 574.29, +7.77), and Oracle (ORCL 41.10, +0.28) climbing between 0.7% and 1.4%. For its part, Oracle rallied after announcing the acquisition of Micros (MCRS 67.98, +2.21) for $68/share.
Similar to the technology sector (+0.3%), five of the other six cyclical groups posted modest gains. Energy (+0.4%) outperformed throughout the session even as crude oil slid 0.6% to $106.18/bbl. The commodity-linked sector extended its June gain to 6.3%, while pushing its quarter-to-date advance to 12.9%.
The slim losses in equities encouraged participants to increase their demand for volatility protection, but the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX 10.97, +0.12), which rose 1.1%, still finished near multi-year lows.
Treasuries, meanwhile, did not indicate safe haven demand as the 10-yr note slipped four ticks, which pushed the benchmark yield higher by one basis point to 2.62%.
Participation remained on the light side with just under 560 million shares changing hands at the NYSE floor.
Economic data was limited to the Existing Home Sales report for May:Tomorrow, the Case-Shiller 20-city Index (consensus 11.6%) and FHFA Housing Price Index will both be released at 9:00 ET, while New Home Sales for May (consensus 440K) and June Consumer Confidence (consensus 84.0) will be released at 10:00 ET.
- Existing home sales increased 4.9% in May to a seasonally adjusted annualized rate (SAAR) of 4.89 million from an upwardly revised 4.66 million SAAR (from 4.65 mln SAAR) in April. The consensus expected existing home sales to increase to 4.80 million SAAR.
- Mortgage rates, which had been moving higher for most of 2014, fell sharply over the last couple of months and helped boost sales growth, but year-over-year sales are still 5.0% below May 2013 levels.
- Purchases by first-time home buyers accounted for only 27% of all sales in May. That was down from 29% in April. First-time home buyers typically account for a third of home purchases during periods of normal sales trends.
- S&P 500 +6.2% YTD
- Nasdaq Composite +4.6% YTD
- Dow Jones Industrial Average +2.2% YTD
- Russell 2000 +1.9% YTD
The Market Has Never Been More Fearful Of An Extreme Event
"There's something going on in derivatives land," is the warning from ADM's Andy Ash and as Paul Mylchreest notes the relationship between VIX and SKEW suggests the options market is pricing in the possibility of a major market event. The process enables professionals to maintain the illusion of calmness in VIX while hedging their positions (as they attempt to unwind as we have shown). Whether this 'event' is a crash or melt-up is historically unclear but given the taper and the trend of the last few years, we suspect the former more likely that the latter.
Via ADM Investor Services' Paul Mylchreest,A rather thought-provoking chart which we've been looking at is the ratio of the SKEW (the chance of an extreme or outlier event, i.e. OTM versus ATM options) versus the VIX (the expectations for more 'normal' day-to-day volatility - the price of hedging implied by ATM options)... and is an indicator of how the market is pricing the possibility of a potential black swan event.You can see how extended we are right now… (actually at record highs)We can’t help wondering when Bill Gross tells the world that he is selling volatility, whether he is, in fact, selling ATM vol and buying OTM vol ???While (curiously) 2000 didn’t register, the two previous highs in the SKEW/VIX ratio were 1994 and 2007 which turned out to be pivotal dates in terms of changes in market direction.One up and one down... Which does it look like this time?* * *Think briefly about who is buying and who is selling? Thiunk about who is buying deep OTM protection? Smells like the professionals are a little less sanguine than their chatter suggests...Institutional clients are dumping equities off to retail clients... thank you very much...
and those that can't dump their assets are hedging aggressively (while maintaining the illusion with VIX that all is well)