Shareholders will, from a financial point, the first victims of this case.
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BNP Paribas and American authorities investigating his case, would have agreed to a fine of between 8 and 9 billion (6.5 billion euros). This amount is bearable by the bank. It should perform without a capital increase. Bond issuance and asset sales allow him to cross the course. The overall results for the year 2014 will also be absorbed. Overview of the different actors involved in this case.
• No dividend to shareholders: a shock to the Belgian budget
Shareholders will, from a financial point of view, the first victims of this case. To absorb the shock of such a fine, the bank should fall into the red in 2014. It therefore does not distribute dividends. For the Belgian State , which owns 10.30% of BNP Paribas since the purchase of Fortis, this deletion would be a true fiscal shock. In 2012 and 2013, Brussels had received 192 million euros in dividends for its stake in the bank.
• A year without incentive for bank employees
Employee shareholders will also draw a line on their dividends. In case of losses, they will not touch either incentive. Increases also may be severely downgraded. Traders' bonuses could well be trimmed. Which in this highly volatile market could cause leakage of operators to higher variable compensation.
• The French budget: BNP Paribas remain a good taxpayer
The Finance Act 2008 establishes, in Article 23, a general principle of non-deductibility of financial penalties. The fine BNP Paribas is therefore not deductible. The bank, one of the first countries taxpayers just behind Total should still pay heavy taxes in France this year, even if the institution a loss. In 2013, the bank paid nearly $ 2 billion of taxes to the French government.
• Customers of the bank will not be affected
Clients, individuals and businesses will not be affected by the case. BNP Paribas investment will not be affected. An admission of guilt arise however subject to U.S. institutional clients. Many funds have indeed committed to not deal with organizations convicted in the United States.