>>> Carnival Plc Reports Q2 $0.10 v $0.02e, R$3.60B v $3.59Be

Carnival Plc Reports Q2 $0.10 v $0.02e, R$3.60B v $3.59Be
- Guides Q3 EPS $1.38-1.44 (no ests), net revenue yields flat to -1% y/y, net cruise costs +1.0-2.0% y/y 

Since March, fleetwide booking volumes for the next three quarters are running slightly behind last year at higher prices.
 
At this time, cumulative advance bookings for the remainder of 2014 are slightly ahead of the prior year at higher prices. 

- CEO: "Collectively our brands are gaining momentum in our efforts to drive higher ticket prices and we continue to expect sequential improvement in revenue yields, despite a more competitive environment in the Caribbean this summer. We remain focused on further understanding our guests and refining the exceptional customer experience we provide. We have also made significant strides in our efforts to identify opportunities for cross-brand operational efficiencies. This work is still in the early stages, but we are making progress and beginning to see encouraging signs. We believe we have reached a positive inflection point for our company as we return to earnings growth in 2014 and work hard to ensure that growth accelerates in the years to come."

(UBS) Shire : High uncertainty vs high share price

* Maintain Neutral, M&A upside offset by downside risk
Shire's share price is up c. 35% YTD on the back of improved EBIT margin, the
Viropharma acquisition and the bids AbbVie made recently. Although we believe
AbbVie could come back with a higher offer, we also believe the downside risk –
should a higher offer not materialise – offsets the upside AbbVie could offer over the
current valuation, and we maintain our Neutral rating. We believe there are more
fundamentally undervalued opportunities that offer a sounder strategy for nonspeculative
investors.

* Management bullish on pipeline, we are not fully convinced yet
Shire management provided a target of USD10bn in revenues by 2020, including
USD3bn of probability-weighted pipeline, excluding Fibrotech and the expected
USD3bn in Lumena peak sales potential (non-probability weighted). Based on
management target of USD7bn in pipeline non-probability-weighted peak sales (not
specifically in 2020), this makes us believe that management is assuming a pipeline
probability of success of between 50% and 75%, which appears much higher than
typical Biotech chance of success and even higher than Shire's historical success rate.
We also believe that some expectations, notably the USD1bn in Lifitegrast US sales,
appear highly optimistic, whereas a few other (like Binge Eating) appear conservative.

* Who will be next to follow: Celgene and BIIB probably to be discounted
We previously gave a range of US companies that looked of appropriate size to be able
to potentially achieve a tax-inversion strategy. We must stress that Celgene and Biogen
Idec are very unlikely bidders in our view: Celgene already benefits from a very low tax
rate; BIIB already expects sustained growth and has no need to patch any slowdown.
This leaves, in our view, only AbbVie and Allergan as likely suitors: AbbVie's latest offer
and Shire's bullish aspirations may make Shire unaffordable for Allergan.

* Valuation: adding a 30% M&A premium to DCF
We usually value using a DCF-based model that yields our 3,450p fair value but add a
30% M&A premium to reflect the AbbVie rejected offer to yield our 4,500p Price
Target and Neutral rating.

>>> US Gapping down

Gapping down
In reaction to disappointing earnings/guidance: GIGA -14.6%, WAG -2.3%, .

M&A news: SYT -2.6% (pull back from yesterday's strength, after reports of declining offer from Monsanto (MON)), SHPG -1.7% (to hire Goldman Sachs (GS) as adviser as Abbvie (ABBV) attempts to bid for company, according to reports).

Select EU financial related names showing weakness: LYG -1.2%, RBS -1.2%, ING -1.1%, UBS -0.8%, CS -0.8%.

Other news: OHRP -7.9% (announces interim top-line clinical results from Phase II Study of Squalamine eye drops in patients with Wet AMD), KNOP -7.2% (announced public offering of 4.6 mln common units; announced the entry into acquisition agreements for the purchase of the Hilda Knutsen and Torill Knutsen; management recommended $0.035 increase to quarterly cash distribution),LORL -5.7% (has rejected $80/share offer from Ontario Teachers Pension Plan & Telesat shareholder, according to reports), BRX -2.5% (announced secondary offering Of 25 mln shares of common stock by selling shareholder), PANW -2.1% (announced proposed $500 mln offering of convertible senior notes due 2019), MELI -1.6% (intends to offer $300 mln of convertible senior notes), FANG-1.5% (announced the launch of an underwritten public offering of 2,000,000 shares of its common stock by certain selling stockholders; the shares to be sold in the offering will be sold by certain entities controlled by Wexford Capital LP and by Gulfport Energy), VNCE -1.2% (announced launch of secondary public offering of ~3.55 mln shares of common stock by selling stockholders), DF -0.9% (reports that authorities have subpoenaed the company in insider trading investigation involving Carl Icahn), PRTA -0.9% (announced proposed offering of $100 mln of ordinary shares), RAD -0.8% (in sympathy with WAG).

Analyst comments: WWWW -6.1% (downgraded to Neutral from Buy at B. Riley), CTRP -5.2% (downgraded to Hold at Stifel), NNN -3.2% (downgraded to Neutral from Buy at BofA/Merrill), COG -1.3% (downgraded to Equal-Weight from Overweight at Morgan Stanley), PETM -1.2% (initiated with a Underweight at Morgan Stanley), HIMX -1% (target lowered to $5 at Chardan Capital Markets),TGT -0.7% (initiated with a Underweight at Morgan Stanley), NFX -0.6% (downgraded to Hold from Accumulate at KLR Group), BBBY -0.5% (initiated with a Underweight at Morgan Stanley)

>>> US Gapping up

Gapping up
In reaction to strong earnings/guidance: SONC +2%, MU +1.1%.

M&A news: STBZ +4% (State Bank Financial to acquire Georgia-Carolina Bancshares and its wholly-owned subsidiary in a cash and stock transaction with a purchase price of ~$82 million, or $22.35 per share).

Select metals/mining stocks trading higher:GFI +1.9%, MUX +1.8%, IAG +1%, AU +0.8%, EGO +0.7%, SLV +0.7%, MT +0.7%, AUY +0.6%, GG +0.5%.

Other news: XGTI +80% (awarded subcontractor position on $497 mln multiple-award contract for communications and networking services to U.S. Army), VRTX +53.6% (Two 24-week Phase 3 studies of Lumacaftor in combo with Ivacaftor met primary endpoint with statistically significant improvements in lung function), CRMD +24.8% (finalized pivotal Phase 3 study protocol for FDA), FRO+7.5% (cont strength), WIX +5.6% (surpasses 50 million users worldwide ), ZPIN +4.3% (Tiger Global Investments disclosed 18.6% passive stake in 13G filing), HCLP +2.1% (announced new long-term frac sand purchase agreement with Halliburton), TTM +2% (strong mkts in India overnight), CAW +1.2% (stated its policy is not to comment on unusual market activity), EXK +1.1% (drilling continues to intersect high grade silver-gold mineralization in La Luz-Asuncion Vein at Bolanitos Mine), IBN +1.1% (strong mkts in India overnight).

Analyst comments: CDE +1.5% (upgraded to Mkt Perform from Underperform at BMO Capital Mtkts), HTGC +1.4% (upgraded to Outperform from Market Perform at Wells Fargo), BBY +0.8% (initiated with a Overweight at Morgan Stanley), SBH +0.6% (initiated with a Overweight at Morgan Stanley), WEC +0.5% (upgraded to Outperform from Market Perform at Wells Fargo)

>>> Elisabeth Arden (RDEN US) News hitting the tape -9% Pre Open

Discloses approved approved a broad restructuring and cost savings program that is intended to reduce the size and cost of the Company's overhead structure and exit low-return businesses
- 2014 Performance Improvement Plan includes the exiting of certain unprofitable retail doors and fragrance license agreements, changes in customer, distribution and supply chain relationships, the discontinuation of certain products, the elimination of employee positions globally and the closing of the Company's Puerto Rico affiliate. The 2014 Performance Improvement Plan is only a part of the Company's ongoing broad restructuring and cost savings program, and the Company is continuing to target annual savings in the range of $40M to $50M upon full implementation of the program. 
- Currently estimates that the 2014 Performance Improvement Plan will result in pre-tax charges beginning in the fourth fiscal quarter of 2014 and through fiscal 2015 of $65M to $72M, of which an estimated $32M to $36M is comprised of future cash expenditures.

(Hollywood-Reporter) Disney Not Pursuing Equity Stake in Vice Media

Disney Not Pursuing Equity Stake in Vice Media {http://bit.ly/1jcq2rj}

The "Vice" TV show is most famous for sending Dennis Rodman to North Korea.
Time Warner is still considered a suitor for the media company, though the two parties are $400 million apart.

Reports suggesting that several major media conglomerates are interested in paying big money for a stake in Vice Media are overblown, multiple sources told The Hollywood Reporter on Monday.

It was revealed a few weeks ago that Time Warner was interested in taking a position in Vice that would value the hip and edgy new-media company at as much as $2.2 billion, up from the $1.4 billion it was worth a year ago when 21st Century Fox bought a 5 percent stake for $70 million.
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But reports have surfaced since then suggesting that Time Warner might have to fend off other suitors. A story in the New York Times on Monday, for example, indicated that Walt Disney has entered the fray and that 21st Century Fox is interested in upping its stake. But in both cases the conglomerates have ruled out an investment — or in the case of the latter, a further investment — in Vice, according to several sources who spoke to THR on the condition of anonymity because of the secretive nature of negotiations.
"An interested party is obviously trying to drum up a bidding war," one person familiar with the matter told THR. "It’s interesting that Viacom isn’t usually mentioned as a bidder, since MTV is most analogous to Vice’s business."
Viacom, Disney, Time Warner and 21st Century Fox declined a request for comment, as did Vice.
Sources said Disney kicked the tires on Vice but is now uninterested in part because its content wouldn’t fit with the conglomerate’s family friendly brand. On Monday, for example, profanity was peppered into several stories at Vice’s website, which also contained some partial nudity and some fairly graphic sexual references.
"Disney has no interest. It’s unclear where they’d even put something like this," one source said.
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Another source confirmed that 21st Century Fox is already "happy with its current stake" in Vice and will not be competing against others who might want to invest. "The 5 percent stake had an opportunity to do more and decided against it," said a source.
And that leaves Time Warner, which spoke to Vice as recently as last week, according to sources, and is looking to make an investment in Vice that would value the whole company at about $1.8 billion, though its CEO, Shane Smith, thinks his company is worth at least $2.2 billion.
One scenario has Time Warner taking a large but not necessarily a majority stake in Vice, then turning HLN into a joint venture between Time Warner and Vice, with the latter handling the programming. In that case, HLN would likely be rebranded.
While Vice is primarily an online company targeting 18-34-year-olds with websites that attract 220 million unique visitors monthly and 5.5 million subscribers to its YouTube channels, it also has TV show Vice on Time Warner’s HBO.
Vice was founded in Montreal, Canada, in 1994. The private company does not disclose financial information, though sources say it will generate about $500 million in revenue in 2014. The company says it has 36 global offices and 1,400 full-time employees. Its online videos boast about 500 million views monthly and it gets $16 CPM rates and more for its video ads. It founded Vice Records in 2002 and also operates a robust branded-content business. A website page promoting the latter business lists more than a dozen recent partners, such as Intel, Budweiser, Nike and Ford, along with a single film studio: Warner Bros., owned by Time Warner.
The HBO television show — which is probably most famous for sending former NBA star Dennis Rodman to North Korea — is in its second season and attracting an average of 760,000 viewers, not including on-demand and online viewing. Sources say that if Time Warner and Vice cannot come to terms on a deal involving an investment stake or joint venture, the conglomerate might simply end up licensing more content from Vice.
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"Negotiations are progressing," said a source. "They’re figuring out a way for the companies to work together, possibly through a joint venture or programming relationship. It’s not likely though that Vice will want to sell itself entirely. They’ll want to maintain a controlling stake."
While Disney, 21st Century Fox and Viacom may not be interested in an equity investment in Vice, content partnerships are often discussed, say several people close to the situation. Vice produced 11 hours worth of TV content for HBO, but in total it has produced 76 hours of programming, including lots of TV content in Canada and Germany, and four years ago it produced a show called Vice Guide to Everything for MTV.
"It does make sense for Time Warner to invest because it will give it multimedia exposure to an alternative news platform that skews the news demo younger," said Tony Wible of Janney Capital Markets.