Kerix (KERX) : Mentionned in Seeking alpha as a potential target as Baupost new

Keryx Biopharmaceuticals Inc Hearing strength attributed to positive financial blog comments {http://bit.ly/1ma36ZI}


Keryx Biopharmaceuticals: Baupost Group's New Position Suggests A Possible Takeout And 100%+ Gains

Summary
•In 1Q 2014, top hedge fund Baupost Group started a position in KERX and is now its largest shareholder.
•Two weeks ago, Idenix announced it's getting acquired by Merck for over three times its share price. Baupost Group owns 35% of Idenix outstanding shares.
•Worldwide, Keryx's drug Zerenex will likely become the best treatment for chronic kidney disease (CKD) dialysis and pre-dialysis patients.
•If Zerenex is widely used for dialysis and pre-dialysis CKD patients, KERX's value is $60+ using PropThink's model.
•In January 2014, Zerenex got approved in Japan for pre-dialysis and dialysis use in CKD patients.

In this bullish market, it is good to own at least one stock in your portfolio with takeout potential and a possible 100%+ return. There is a good chance that this could happen with Keryx Biopharmaceuticals (KERX). The reason is because Baupost Group, of Idenix (IDIX) fame, has recently acquired an over 10% stake in KERX and has become its largest shareholder.

As explained by Market Realist, Seth Klarman of Baupost Group is one of the best performing hedge fund managers of all time, generating $21.5B in returns over its history. If Warren Buffett announced that he's taking a big position in KERX, then the stock would instantly shoot up, right? Except Buffett doesn't invest in biotech, that isn't his specialty. However, Seth Klarman does and is like the "Buffett of biotech" and unknown to most investors. He takes huge positions in only a select few stocks with a big margin of safety, and has had tremendous success.
Baupost Group's largest position increase in 1Q 2014 was IDIX. By the end of the quarter, Baupost Group owned a whopping 35% of the outstanding shares in IDIX. This kind of large ownership in a stock is very rare for a hedge fund. Maybe he knew something that us mere mortal investors didn't know? Yes, he emphatically did! On June 6th, IDIX closed at $7.23 per share. On June 9th, Merck announced it agreed to buy IDIX for $3.85B, and the stock closed at $23.79, for a 230% gain. Something similar could happen to KERX any day. KERX is a plausible takeover candidate for its phosphate binder drug, Zerenex, to treat chronic kidney disease (CKD). Zerenex is a unique, and very valuable chemical compound. It is comparable to Idenix's nucleotides that are also unique and valuable compounds to treat Hepatitis C.
Baupost always seems to know how to be in the right place at the right time. The firm also initiated a large 6 million share position in Cheniere energy in 1Q 2014, which has already increased over 15% since then. Also, TriQuint Semiconductor (TQNT) and RF Micro Devices (RFMD) are both up almost 100% since Baupost initiated the positions in 1Q 2014. Those and KERX were the only four positions Baupost initiated in 1Q 2014.
The following were Baupost's top holdings in 1Q 2014:

>>> Vertex (VRTX) +54% on Traffic & Transports Data 1.3mil shares traded alreadd

Vertex Pharm resumes trade at 14 year high above $90 then pops above $100/share following positive TRAFFIC and TRANSPORT data

  • Vertex Pharm (VRTX $100.60 +33.87) announced results from two Phase 3 studies of lumacaftor in combination with ivacaftor that showed statistically significant improvements in lung function (percent predicted forced expiratory volume in one second, or ppFEV1) in people ages 12 and older with cystic fibrosis who have two copies of the F508del mutation in the cystic fibrosis transmembrane conductance regulator gene. All four 24-week combination treatment arms in the studies, known as TRAFFIC and TRANSPORT, met their primary endpoint of mean absolute improvement in ppFEV1 from baseline compared to placebo at the end of treatment. Mean absolute improvements in ppFEV1 of between 2.6 and 4.0 percentage points from baseline compared to placebo were observed across the studies (p=0.0004), with mean relative improvements of 4.3 percent to 6.7 percent.
  • The combination regimens were generally well tolerated. The most common adverse events, regardless of treatment group, were infective pulmonary exacerbation, cough, headache and increased sputum. 4.2 percent of patients who received the combination regimens discontinued treatment because of adverse events compared to 1.6 percent of those who received placebo. More than 1,000 patients have entered a rollover study to receive a combination regimen. Data from a pre-specified pooled analysis showed improvements in multiple key secondary endpoints. For patients who received the combination regimens compared to those who received placebo, there were statistically significant reductions in the rates of pulmonary exacerbations and statistically significant improvements in both body mass index and the proportion of patients with at least a 5 percent relative improvement in ppFEV1. Statistically significant changes were not consistently observed for patient-reported respiratory symptoms as reported in the CF questionnaire-revised.
  • Based on these data, Vertex plans to submit regulatory applications for approval in multiple countries, including a New Drug Application in the United States and Marketing Authorisation Application (MAA) in Europe, in the fourth quarter of 2014 for people with CF ages 12 and older who have two copies of the F508del mutation.

>>> Walgreens misses by $0.03, reports revs in-line with pre-ann

--> WAG -1.8% Pre Open - 100k shares traded

Walgreens misses by $0.03, reports revs in-line with pre-announcement; co plan to hold call in late July/early August to discuss next step in Alliance Boots transaction/strategy

Reports Q3 (May) earnings of $0.91 per share, excluding non-recurring items, $0.03 worse than the Capital IQ Consensus Estimate of $0.94; revenues rose 5.9% year/year to $19.4 bln vs the $19.22 bln consensus. (pre-announced $19.49 bln sales on Jun 4).
  • Front-end comparable store sales increased 2.2% in the third quarter, customer traffic in comparable stores decreased 0.7 percent and basket size increased 2.9 percent, while total sales in comparable stores increased 4.8 percent.
  • Prescription sales, which accounted for 64.4% of sales in the quarter, increased 8.4 percent, while prescription sales in comparable stores increased 6.3 percent.
  • The combined synergies for Walgreens and its strategic partner, Alliance Boots, in the first nine months of fiscal 2014 were approximately $367 million. The joint synergy program is now estimated to deliver second-year combined synergies of $400-$450 million, an increase from the previous second-year estimate of $375-$425 million.
  • GAAP total gross profit dollars increased $218 million, or 4.2 percent, compared with the year-ago third quarter, with gross profit margins decreasing 40 basis points versus the year-ago quarter to 28.1 as a percentage of sales. Adjusted gross profit dollars increased $139 million, or 2.6 percent, compared with the year-ago third quarter.
  • Alliance Boots contributed 15 cents per diluted share to Walgreens third quarter 2014 adjusted results. The company estimates that the accretion from Alliance Boots in the fourth quarter of fiscal 2014 will be an adjusted 6 to 7 cents per diluted share.
  • As a result of the many step two considerations and current business performance, the company is withdrawing its fiscal year 2016 goals that were previously announced in 2012. Specifically, once key decisions have been made on the above matters, Walgreens anticipates being in a position to hold an investor call, which is expected to occur by late July or early August. At that time, the company expects to provide a new set of goals and metrics for the proposed combined enterprise for fiscal year 2016.

>>> Fed's Plosser (hawk, FOMC voter): Current policy guidance may be too passive

Fed's Plosser (hawk, FOMC voter): Current policy guidance may be too passive given economic recovery, to be above-trend growth for the remainder of 2014
- There is plenty of easy money sloshing around the economy to hit the 2% inflation target. Expects inflation to stabilize around 2% in 2015. 
- Rule-based monetary policy models suggest that rates should increase next quarter. 
- Fed may need to adjust its communications soon, rule-based policy would drive more effective communication.
- Fed could publish periodic monetary policy reports to the public. 
- Dot chart are not an FOMC forecast, do not represent policymakers' views on appropriate policies.

>>> US Early premarket gappers

Early premarket gappers

Gapping up: CRMD +20.8%, ZPIN +4.4%, ASTI +4.3%, SONC +2%, TTM +1.9%, IAG +1.7%, HCLP +1.6%, AUY +1.6%, EGO +1.5%, AEM +1.4%, CAW +1.2%, SLV +1.2%, GDX +0.9%, GG +0.7%, MT +0.7%, GLD +0.6%, GFI +0.5%

Gapping down: OHRP -16.7%, GIGA -12.1%, KNOP -6.8%, BRX -3.7%, SYT -3.2%, SHPG -2.5%, PANW -2.1%, RIO -1.7%, MELI -1.6%, WWWW -1.5%, VNCE -1.2%, AZN -1.2%, ING -1.1%, LYG -1%, DF -0.9%, PRTA -0.9%, UBS -0.9%, MU -0.8%, CS -0.6%

(BFW) Pfizer Offer of 6,000p/Shr for Astra Still Accretive, BNP Says

Pfizer Offer of 6,000p/Shr for Astra Still Accretive, BNP Says
2014-06-24 09:46:27.572 GMT


By Allison Connolly
     June 24 (Bloomberg) -- Deal makes economic sense on cost
synergies, tax perspective, BNP Paribas says in a note.
  * Says sweetened offer of 6,000p would still be accretive,
    boost Pfizer’s 2016 earnings by 13% and create value
  * Notes Astra can renew talks with Pfizer as soon as Aug.; new
    bid not allowed before Nov.
  * NOTE: June 20, AstraZeneca Looking to Enhance Takeover
    Defense, FT Says

For Related News and Information:
First Word scrolling panel: FIRST<GO>
First Word newswire: NH BFW<GO>

--With assistance from Gaurav Panchal in London. 

To contact the reporter on this story:
Allison Connolly in London at +44-20-3525-7043 or
aconnolly4@bloomberg.net
To contact the editor responsible for this story:
James Ludden at +44-20-7673-2645 or
jludden@bloomberg.net

(BFW) Swiss Watch Exports Improved in May on Easier Comps, Exane Says

--> +ve for Swatch Gorup

Swiss Watch Exports Improved in May on Easier Comps, Exane Says
2014-06-24 09:12:08.904 GMT


By Heather Burke
     June 24 (Bloomberg) -- Swiss watch exports rose 1.2%; data
continued to improve, Exane says.
  * May had more favorable y/y comp base, with May 2013 -3.9% vs
    April 2013 +5.7%
  * High end watches (wholesale price >CHF3k) continue to
    outperform, cheaper watches (CHF200-CHF500) lagging
  * Hong Kong returning to positive annualized growth, Mainland
    China trend positive


For Related News and Information:
First Word scrolling panel: FIRST<GO>
First Word newswire: NH BFW<GO>

To contact the reporter on this story:
Heather Burke in London at +44-20-7673-2044 or
hburke2@bloomberg.net
To contact the editor responsible for this story:
James Ludden at +44-20-7673-2645 or
jludden@bloomberg.net

>>> Dubai -6.8% on Arabtec concerns

Shares in major Dubai construction firm Arabtec have continued to plummet on Tuesday, falling by the maximum 10 percent allowed for a third session in a row, fuelling a broad and aggressive sell-off on the emirate's stock market.
Dubai's benchmark was down 8 percent at 12:50pm, heading for its biggest daily loss since last August, as almost all stocks decline, giving up early-session gains.
A number of other stocks are limit-down or very close, including developer Union Properties, contractor Drake and Scull and bourse operator Dubai Financial Market, while Emaar Properties was down 7.39 percent at 12:50pm.
Arabtec on Tuesday partly confirmed reports about layoffs at the company, which followed the resignation of its chief executive Hasan Ismaik last week. At the same time, the company made no comment on its strategic direction or on what could happen to Ismaik's 28.85 percent stake in Arabtec, the issues which investors say are their primary concern.

The Arabtec saga has hurt confidence throughout the market. Investors are also keen to take profits before the summer lull; Dubai's index remains up 19 percent year-to-date.
"Overall, the sentiment is still negative and the sell-off continues," says Julian Bruce, director of Western institutional equity sales at EFG-Hermes.
Arabtec's dramatic fall – the shares have halved in value since May – follow a string of bad news for the company, which started with major shareholder Aabar Investments, an Abu Dhabi state fund, cutting its stake in the company from 21.57 percent to 18.85 percent between June 8 and 11.
Following Ismaik's resignation, reports on Monday claimed Arabtec’s head of mergers and acquisitions, Shohidul Ahad-Choudhury, had been sacked, along with a significant number of other staff.
In a bourse statement on Tuesday, Arabtec moved to clarify that it had laid off a "limited number" of staff in order to improve productivity and reduce costs, adding that all its actions had been aimed at protecting shareholders' rights.
A source with knowledge of the matter told Reuters on Monday most of the people departing had either been hired by Ismaik or were perceived to be close to him, raising questions over whether the layoffs would hinder Arabtec's ambitious expansion plans, which include many billions of dollars worth of contracts in the UAE, Egypt and other countries.
Bloomberg News reported on Monday that the number of staff laid off was in the hundreds, but Arabtec said that number was incorrect.
Arabtec said its structure and administration remained strong, contrary to inaccurate rumours. However it did not comment directly on its business plans post-Ismaik, how the company would be managed, or what would happen to Ismaik's 28.85 percent stake in the firm.
Aabar, which now owns 18.94 percent and has considerable management influence on Arabtec, has declined to comment on its intentions.