>>> Brokers Upgrades & Downgrades - 23/06/2014

>>> Up
*BANKIA RAISED TO NEUTRAL VS UNDERPERFORM AT MEDIOBANCA
*CEZ RAISED TO BUY VS HOLD AT DEUTSCHE BANK
*DAILY MAIL RAISED TO OVERWEIGHT VS NEUTRAL AT JPMORGAN
*DET NORSKE RAISED TO OUTPERFORM VS NEUTRAL AT CREDIT SUISSE
*HARGREAVES LANSDOWN RAISED TO OUTPERFORM AT CREDIT SUISSE
*KESKO RAISED TO BUY VS HOLD AT NORDEA
*MOBISTAR RAISED TO NEUTRAL VS REDUCE AT NOMURA

>>> Down
*FONCIERE DES REGIONS CUT TO NEUTRAL VS BUY AT NATIXIS
*LUNDIN PETROLEUM CUT TO UNDERPERFORM VS NEUTRAL: CREDIT SUISSE
*PROVIDENT FINANCIAL CUT TO UNDERPERFORM VS SECTOR PERFORM: RBC
*TAURON CUT TO NEUTRAL VS OVERWEIGHT AT JPMORGAN

>>> PT Changes
*Eni PT Raised to EU22 vs EU21 at Raymond James
*SAFILO PT RAISED TO EU19.5 VS EU18.5 AT BERENBERG; KEPT AT BUY
*SFS GROUP RATED NEW BUY AT UBS, PT SF74
*SFS GROUP RATED NEW OUTPERFORM AT CREDIT SUISSE; PT SF83
*SLM SOLUTIONS RATED NEW OUTPERFORM AT CREDIT SUISSE; PT EU23
*SLM SOLUTIONS RATED NEW BUY AT DEUTSCHE BANK

>>> Initiation
*APPLUS SERVICES RATED NEW OVERWEIGHT AT JPMORGAN; PT EU19.22
*APPLUS SERVICES RATED NEW BUY AT BERENBERG; PT EU18.6
*APPLUS SERVICES RATED NEW BUY AT UBS, PT EU19
*APPLUS SERVICES RATED NEW OVERWEIGHT AT MORGAN STANLEY
*CAT OIL RATED NEW NEUTRAL AT UBS, PT EU20.50
*FOXTONS RATED NEW NEUTRAL AT GOLDMAN, PT 370P
*HOWDEN JOINERY RATED NEW BUY AT GOLDMAN, PT 425P
*OPERA SOFTWARE RATED NEW OVERWEIGHT AT MORGAN STANLEY, PT NK90

>>> Call
>> Stock
*EURONEXT ADDED TO UBS’S LEAST PREFERRED LIST
*IG GROUP ADDED TO UBS’S MOST PREFERRED LIST

>>> Interpublic could be a target for Dentsu

Interpublic could be a target for Dentsu

Dentsu, the Japanese advertising business, could target Interpublic, the listed global advertising firm headquartered in New York city, according to Martin Sorrell, chief executive of WPP, The Australian reported. The paper cited Sorrell as saying that in the advertising space Interpublic is considered vulnerable to a takeover, while Dentsu is looking to grow outside its core region, Japan.

The paper noted that WPP is the worlds largest advertising business.

Sorrell noted that WPP’s Australian operations have improved significantly and that consolidation is likely among medium-sized ad network holding operations.

Interpublic has a market capitalisation of AUD 8.3bn.


Source The Australian

>>> Club Med bidder Investindustrial conducts due diligence advised by Lazard; B

Club Med bidder Investindustrial conducts due diligence advised by Lazard; Bonomi asks for stay of execution 

Club Med suitor Investindustrial, the private-equity vehicle of Italian tycoon Andrea Bonomi, has engaged Lazard as a bid adviser, The Times reported. According to a person familiar with the situation, Bonomi appears “deadly serious” as he is investing significant time and capital in conducting a due diligence process on the France-based listed leisure group, the report said.

Bonomi is considering an offer which could be worth EUR 750m, and has until the month-end to table a bid rivalling an agreed EUR 700m offer from Hong Kong-listed Fosun International and Axa Private Equity, the item reported. It noted that Fosun and Axa together control close to 20% of Club Med, while Bonomi owns 11% through Strategic Holdings.

As well as Lazard, Bonomi is being advised by McKinsey, KPMG and CBRE, the report said.

Another report from daily Les Echos said that Bonomi has asked the French courts for stay of execution concerning the deadline requested by French stock market regulator AMF. Bonomi has indeed until 30 June to put up a counter-bid for Club Med or shut up. According to French daily Le Figaro, the court is meeting on 2 July to examine the request made by Bonomi.

According to the report, Bonomi bring the file before the courts could be seen as a hint that the Italian financier does not plan to make an offer for Club Med, all the more so that the EUR 17.50 per share tender offer launched by Fosun and Ardian (formerly known as Axa Private Equity) is likely to fail.

AMF and people close to Bonomi did not comment the news.



Source The Times (London), Les Echos, Le Figaro

>>> Shire and AbbVie cautioned against leaks by UK Takeover Panel

Shire and AbbVie cautioned against leaks by UK Takeover Panel 

AbbVie and its prospective takeover target Shire have been warned against leaking strategic data by the Takeover Panel, The Times reported. The unsourced report said the British regulatory body contacted both listed pharmaceuticals groups over the past couple of days to tell them not to leak information regarding their deal strategies, in the wake of American pharma giant Pfizer’s failed offer for UK-based AstraZeneca.

Dublin-headquartered Shire, which is listed in London, is expected to strengthen its defence against Chicago-based AbbVie today by revealing plans to target USD 10bn revenues within the next six years, the report said. It noted that Shire last week announced it had already rejected three AbbVie offers which it considered to undervalue the business.

Shire has a GBP 25.7bn (EUR 32.2bn) market cap.

Source The Times

(BFW) Biogen, Eli, Celgene, Allergan May Counterbid for Shire: UBS


Biogen, Eli, Celgene, Allergan May Counterbid for Shire: UBS
2014-06-23 05:24:52.355 GMT


By Morwenna Coniam
     June 23 (Bloomberg) -- List of potential alternative U.S.
bidders for Shire is limited to Biogen, Eli Lilly, Celgene,
Allergan, UBS says in note dated June 20 published after
AbbVie’s offer was rejected.
  * Cites list as being small enough to benefit from tax
    inversion, sufficiently large enough to make the acquisition
  * NOTE: Shire to hold call for investors at 1pm London time
    today
  * NOTE June 20: AbbVie Said to Weigh Higher Offer for Shire
    After Bid Rejected
  * NOTE: Shire Snubbing AbbVie Makes It Latest Pharma Target:
    Real M&A

For Related News and Information:
First Word scrolling panel: FIRST<GO>
First Word newswire: NH BFW<GO>

To contact the reporter on this story:
Morwenna Coniam in Hong Kong at +852-2977-6612 or
mconiam@bloomberg.net
To contact the editors responsible for this story:
Clyde Eltzroth at +1-212-617-1879 or
celtzroth1@bloomberg.net;
James Ludden at +44-20-7673-2645 or
jludden@bloomberg.net
Roger Neill, Morwenna Coniam

Asian Update

Asian Market Update: AUD and Copper rally as China HSBC flash PMI returns to expansion


***Economic Data***
- (CN) CHINA JUNE HSBC/MARKIT FLASH MANUFACTURING PMI: 50.8 V 49.7E (highest since Nov 2013, first expansion in 6 months)
- (JP) JAPAN JUN MARKIT/JMMA MANUFACTURING PMI: 51.1 (highest reading since Mar) V 49.9 PRIOR
- (NZ) NEW ZEALAND MAY CREDIT CARD SPENDING M/M: +3.0% V -3.0% PRIOR; Y/Y: 7.5% V 3.2% PRIOR
- (NZ) NEW ZEALAND MAY NET MIGRATION: 4.0K V 4.1K PRIOR

Market Snapshot (as of 03:30 GMT):
- Nikkei225 +0.4%, S&P/ASX +0.8%, Kospi +0.5%, Shanghai Composite +0.1%, Hang Seng +0.4%, Sept S&P500 +0.2 % at 1,958, Aug gold -0.3% at $1,312, Aug crude oil +0.4% at $107.21/brl

***Highlights/Observations/Insights***
- Asian indices traded up nearly across the board in the morning session, cheering a much stronger than expected June flash manufacturing PMI from HSBC. Coming in at a 6-month high and the first instance of expansion in 2014, the data also showed reversal in Input prices (inflationary) and employment decreased at a slower rate, while the growth in new export orders slowed. HSBC chief economist for China indicated the "improvement was broad-based with both domestic orders and external demand sub-indices in expansionary territory", also pointing to evidence of "mini-stimulus filtering through to the real economy" and forecasting that policymakers "continue accommodative policy until the recovery is sustained." AUD/USD hit a 2-month high above $0.9440 in the wake of the data, rising some 50pips, while front month copper rose three-quarters of a percent above $3.14. Sept S&Ps were also up about 5 handles on the release, hitting new highs above 1,959.

- Also out of China, Beijing put out its quarterly Beige Book for Q2 that was slightly more downbeat, indicating fewer companies had access to credit amid weakening investment environment. Beige Book also warned that the economy continues to decelerate q/q, driven by perhaps unprecedented weakness in capex.

- Aug WTI Crude Oil contract opened up nearly a dollar above $107, with turmoil in Iraq unabated. Late on Friday, reports indicated rebel ISIS group had signed a truce with the Kurds in the northern part of the country. Over the weekend, ISIS militants were also reported to have extended their territory in the west of the country after having overrun a border post with Syria. Analysts suggest this risks a more protracted conflict, as it opens up supply routes for the rebels.

***Speakers/Political/In the Papers***
- (CN) China Academy of Social Sciences (CASS) researcher Yi Xianrong: PBoC won't adjust prudent monetary policy in H2 - Chinese press
- (CN) China iron ore port inventory rises to record - Chinese press
- (CN) As of Jun 18th, Beijing city home inventory at 80.8K units, highest level in 18 months - Xinhua
- (CN) According to owner of a small house developer in City of Xiangyang, Hubei Province, extremely difficult for small home developer to get loans now; Difficult even at 5% monthly rate from private loans - Chinese press
- (JP) Japan PM Abe's cabinet support rating is down 6pts to 43% (lowest since Dec 2012) in June - Asahi
- (JP) Japan PM Abe plans to reshuffle cabinet in Sept - Yomiuri
- (JP) According to a Nikkei survey of 144 top executives in Japan, 67% expect return to prior consumption levels in July-Sept quarter
- (KR) South Korea Fin Min Hyun: South Korea production may be affected by ferry sinking accident - financial press
- (IQ) Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei: US should not intervene in Iraq; Iraqis are able to handle the conflict themselves - financial press
- (IQ) Iraq's ISIS militants said to have expanded and reinforced their territory in the west of the country after having overrun a border post with Syria - financial press
- (UK) BOE's Miles (Dove): Subdued inflation to allow policymakers to raise rates gradually; Increasingly likely he will vote for rate increase before his term expires next May - UK press

***Fixed Income/Commodities/Currencies***
- (JP) BOJ offers to buy ¥400B in 5-10yr JGB, ¥100B in 10-25yr JGB, and ¥30B in JGB with maturity over 25-yr
- (KR) South Korea (MOF) sells KRW900B 20-yr govt Bonds; avg yield 3.38%; bid-to-cover 4.44x
- SLV: iShares Silver Trust ETF daily holdings fall to 10,181 tonnes from 10,262 tonnes prior (lowest since May 1st)

***Equities***
US markets:
- GE: Confirms Alstom board chooses GE offer
- CENT: Harbinger Capital to make $1.1B bid for Central Carden - FT

Notable movers by sector:
- Consumer Discretionary: Takashimaya 8233.JP +0.4% (speculation on Q1 results); eprint Group Ltd 1884.HK -8.7% (FY13 results)
- Financials: Fosun International 656.HK +0.6% (announces acquisition)
- Materials: Rio Tinto RIO.AU +2.9%, FMG.AU +5.6% (comments from Rio Tinto exec calls for softer regulation)
- Industrials: Leighton Holdings LEI.AU +1.2% (said to quick sell John Holland unit); Asciano Limited AIO.AU +2.5% (analyst action)

BNP Near Settlement With U.S. for Up to $9 Billion

BNP Near Settlement With U.S. for Up to $9 Billion
Investigators Say Evidence Indicates French Bank Hid $30 Billion of Transactions in Violation


BNP Paribas SA and U.S. prosecutors have agreed to broad terms of a deal in which the bank would pay $8 billion to $9 billion and accept other punishment based on what investigators say is evidence the bank intentionally hid $30 billion of financial transactions that violated U.S. sanctions, according to people close to the probe.
The two sides in recent days reached a general outline of a deal that also would include a guilty plea to a criminal charge of conspiring to violate the International Emergency Economic Powers Act and a temporary ban—likely lasting a period of months—on the company's ability to transact in U.S. dollars, according to several people familiar with the discussions.
As part of the deal, officials plan to announce the departures of more than 30 bank employees, acceding to demands by the New York Department of Financial Services that individuals also be punished, according to people close to the talks. The majority of those people have already left the bank, they said.
Negotiations between the French bank and U.S. authorities have entered their final stage, according to people close to the discussions. On Friday, the head of the Justice Department's criminal division, Leslie Caldwell, spoke with bank officials to discuss the precise timing of a guilty plea and announcement, according to one person familiar with the negotiations.
Investigators have gathered information detailing how BNP, over a period of more than five years, used regional banks overseas in order to route funds linked to companies and government agencies in Sudan—at a time when the nation was engaged in what the U.S. and others call genocide, these people said.
Overall, U.S. authorities examined more than $100 billion of transactions that raised suspicions before focusing on about $30 billion they eventually concluded were willfully hidden to avoid detection by U.S. sanctions enforcers, according to people close to the investigation.
A majority of those transactions involved Sudan, though BNP also facilitated such transfers for Iran and other sanctioned countries. Most of the Sudanese transactions were related to oil deals, these people said.
The revelations about the volume of allegedly illicit transactions processed by BNP come amid rising trans-Atlantic tensions over the fate of France's largest listed bank and a series of sharp Franco-U.S. exchanges over whether BNP is being treated fairly.
Earlier in the negotiations, France's President François Hollande blasted what he called "unfair" and "disproportionate" demands by the U.S., including the ban on transacting in U.S. dollars, which he said threatened not just the bank but economic stability of the euro zone. President Barack Obama, who was headed to France to attend D-Day commemorations and dine with Mr. Hollande, said during a news conference earlier this month that he doesn't "meddle" in U.S. prosecutions.
A guilty plea is likely to come in early July, according to people familiar with the discussions, though they cautioned that precise terms haven't yet been set and that the timing could be delayed by the complexity of the settlement and the sheer number of government agencies involved in the talks.
It also is possible, though increasingly unlikely, that the two sides can't finalize a deal. In that case, the U.S. would have to decide whether to file criminal charges against the bank.
The U.S. has been seeking more than $10 billion in penalties. Investigators have privately expressed the view that BNP is getting a discount on the total penalty because under U.S. law, the bank could be forced to pay double the amount of the illegal transactions it processed—about $60 billion based on the $30 billion in allegedly criminal transactions. Officials readily concede that such a sum would be unreasonable and uncollectable.
Seasoned sanctions investigators say BNP went to extensive lengths to disguise transactions from the U.S. Treasury Department's screening system. The bank allegedly used a network of banks in East Africa, the Middle East and Europe to make it appear as if dollar-based transfers were unconnected to Sudan.
While investigators believe the bulk of those transactions were for Sudan's oil business, they also tried to determine if some of those transactions may have facilitated weapons deals, people familiar with the probe said. They didn't find evidence proving those suspicions, and the final settlement documents may not make any reference to the issue, the people said.
About a decade ago, BNP became the preferred bank for Sudanese companies and government officials seeking to do business in dollars without running afoul of U.S. sanctions, according to investigators. In 2007, the bank announced it would no longer do business in Sudan. In the case of Iranian transactions, the bank had to admit as recently as last year that it had found additional transactions for sanctioned entities.
The U.S. has been investigating European banks regarding sanctions violations for more than five years and still has several cases outstanding. A penalty close to $9 billion for BNP would be the largest by far for violating U.S. sanctions.
U.S. officials contend that BNP's evasion of sanctions was far more extensive than other banks previously punished for similar conduct. Sanctions cases typically involve a bank altering records to avoid raising the suspicion of the U.S. Treasury Department's Office of Foreign Assets Control, or OFAC. Some banks and customers try to get around the "OFAC filter'' to avoid running afoul of sanctions or to prevent a transaction from being delayed while authorities give it extra scrutiny, according to people close to the investigations.
In past cases, banks have removed—or "stripped"—such red-flag information such as codes that would identify the sender or recipient of the funds as being in a sanctioned country. This process could mean leaving certain fields blank in financial forms, filling such fields with a single period or an internal code to indicate the transaction involved a bank branch somewhere else, such as London or Paris.
The BNP probe has found a different means of disguising suspicious transactions, people close to the investigation say. BNP used regional banks with their own clearing codes to route illegal transactions with Sudan, making them more difficult to detect, according to multiple people involved in the investigation.
Over the course of the past year, officials involved in the probe gradually concluded BNP's misconduct dwarfed that of previous cases, and determined to raise the amount of their penalty.
"If there is a violation of a rule, it is normal to have a penalty, but the penalty must be proportional and reasonable," French Foreign Minister Laurent Fabius said earlier this month. "These figures are not reasonable."

WSJ : France Clears Way for GE-Alstom Deal

France Clears Way for GE-Alstom Deal
Government to Buy Stake in French Industrial Firm From Bouygues

PARIS—The French government has reached an agreement to purchase a stake in Alstom from its leading shareholder, Economy Minister Arnaud Montebourg said Sunday, clearing the way for General Electric Co. GE +0.15% to complete its acquisition of most of the French industrial company.

The accord—hashed out in marathon talks between the government and French conglomerate Bouygues grants the government an option to buy a 20% stake in Alstom from Bouygues at a future date, Mr. Montebourg said.

"We reached an agreement with Bouygues," Mr. Montebourg said.

Bouygues, whose businesses range from construction to telecommunications, confirmed the agreement in a statement, adding that the government's option to purchase the Alstom shares will last for 20 months and begin after the GE-Alstom deal closes.

Mr. Montebourg added that Paris would move to purchase the stake when Alstom shares are trading at their "lowest" levels on the stock market. The government's decision to buy the stake at a future date marks a concession. The government vowed Friday evening to buy the stake before GE closed the deal with Alstom, but Bouygues balked at that proposal.

Les Echos : The agreement between the state and Bouygues unlocks the sale of Als

Alstom has chosen unanimously to offer the American General Electric to resume its activities in energy. The government has negotiated the terms of the acquisition of 20% stake in Alstom to Bouygues.
The last obstacle to the resumption of Energy Alstom by the American General Electric (GE) was lifted Sunday afternoon after a weekend of intense negotiations: the state has reached an agreement on the conditions of redemption 20% stake in Alstom, Bouygues, today major shareholder (29.4%) of the French supplier. "It is for the government prior to any form of government approval to the proposed partnership," warned Friday night, the Minister of Economy in a letter to the CEO of the American group, Jeffrey Immelt. Arnaud Montebourg formalized the agreement "20 hours" of France 2 tonight.
Who does not want to sell off its stake included 34 euros per share in its accounts Bouygues, has assured that the state could acquire the 20% over 35 euros for twenty months after the closing of the transaction, in the first half Bouygues 2015. "considers that the title Alstom worth 35 euros. We give him twenty months to prove, "says one at Bercy. Friday, Alstom during closed at 28 euros. In the meantime, the State may acquire securities in the market, and Bouygues him "ready" for free 20% of the voting rights. The State will also be two directors to the board of Alstom. To finance the operation (1.7 billion euros during Friday), the State believes it does not need to sell other investments. Arnaud Montebourg however, said on France 2 tonight that the State proceeded to management "dynamic" of its portfolio, which includes 71 investments worth some € 110 billion. All stakeholders have an interest in reaching an agreement before the opening of trading on Monday morning.
 
 
Surprise Friday
The Minister of Economy had a surprise Friday night, announcing the will of the State to carry out a partial nationalization of Alstom and clearly positioning the supply of U.S.. It is however opposed to a competing proposal prompted by the government, from the Japanese Mitsubishi Heavy Industry and German Siemens. To counter the initial offer of GE, which was a simple purchase of the energy branch of the French equipment for an amount of € 12.35 billion, the duo had proposed a complex scheme based on joint ventures and meet government requirements, very attached to a "partnership". A scheme which the American eventually largely inspired, to meet the requirements of the executive. "If we had two offers at the same time, they were worth," says Will in the entourage of the Head of State.
The executive is finally showed pragmatic. Initiated with an edge, negotiations with GE had the merit of having the support of leaders of Alstom and its board of directors. Having obtained that GE brings significant changes to its offer, it can also boast of having shown "patriotic vigilance" and welcome the way the case was handled. "We were very professional on this matter," said Will in the entourage of the Head of State.
Closure next year
Remains in the end, GE resume well a large part of energy activities of Alstom, for a net cash investment of € 7.3 billion. Alstom will hold 50% of certain activities in the energy, which will benefit from synergies and cooperation with GE, but no longer appear in its consolidated financial statements (see also below). "The industrial logic is unchanged. Alstom will rely on a solid group, with real financial clout "says Patrick Kron, CEO of Alstom.
The closing of the transaction will still take many months: given the multiple consultations and perform authorizations required (. Representative bodies, competition authorities, etc.), Alstom provides that the extraordinary general meeting will not be held before the fall, to loop next year. "I will lead through this ambitious, offensive and not defensive project," says Patrick Kron. The CEO, however, should then give his chair, comme il l’a déjà laissé entendre à plusieurs reprises.