FT : US pushes financial regulators to backtrack on climate risk project

US pushes financial regulators to backtrack on climate risk project
Effort to weaken Basel committee task force comes as Trump administration steps back from environmental issues

US regulators are calling on the world’s financial rulemakers to downgrade a flagship project to tackle the risks of climate change in the latest sign of America’s retreat from environmental causes since Donald Trump became president.

Top officials at US financial watchdogs are seeking to weaken the power of a high-level task force set up in 2020 to examine climate change risks to the financial system by the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision, the standard-setter for global financial regulation.

The proposal to dilute the Basel committee’s task force is on the agenda for a meeting of the world’s top central bank governors and financial supervisors on Monday, according to three people briefed on the matter. 

The move comes as the Trump administration has taken steps to force all arms of the US government, along with international bodies such as the World Bank and IMF, to ditch their focus on climate-related issues.  

The four US regulators on the Basel committee — the Fed, the New York Fed, the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency and the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation — are calling for the task force to be downgraded to a working group, according to two of the people briefed on the matter. 

Some central bankers at the meeting are likely to argue against the US-backed proposal, according to one person familiar with Monday’s meeting. “It is not clear if there is enough support to pass it,” said the person.

Europe-based regulators are likely to be among those defending the task force after both the European Central Bank and the Bank of England recently called on the banks they supervise to step up their efforts to address climate risks.

The project is co-chaired by Kevin Stiroh, a senior New York Fed official currently seconded to the Fed board in Washington and who leads its climate supervision committee, and Frank Elderson, an executive board member at the European Central Bank.

Since being set up five years ago, the body has produced a number of reports, including proposals to establish a global framework for banks to disclose climate risks and a set of principles for banks and their supervisors to tackle threats from global warming.

If the Basel committee dilutes the importance of its flagship climate project it is likely to prompt uproar among environmental groups.

“It’s the wrong move at the worst possible time,” said Benoît Lallemand, secretary-general of the lobby group Finance Watch.

“Disbanding the Basel committee’s climate task force would send the absurd signal that climate risks are no longer a concern for financial stability, just as extreme weather, credit losses and asset repricing accelerate,” he added. “This regressive decision would undermine the credibility of the BCBS and its role as a standard-setter.” 

In January, the Fed left the Network for Greening the Financial System, a central banking club for researching climate risks that is housed by the Banque de France. Jay Powell, Fed chair, denied at the time that the decision reflected the Trump administration’s stance on climate issues, saying it was “really not driven by politics”. 

Kevin Warsh, seen as one of the frontrunners to replace Powell once his term as Fed chair ends in May 2026, last month attacked the US central bank’s involvement in issues such as climate change and inclusion — though he acknowledged it had now “changed its tune” by leaving the NGFS in January.   

Asked this week whether the Fed should focus on climate change, Powell distanced himself from the subject, saying its “role on climate is a very, very narrow one”. 

“It’s a real danger for us to try to take on a mandate like that, which [has a] very narrow application to our work,” the Fed chair said. “If you go for things that are really not in your mandate . . . then why are you independent?” 

The Basel committee, the Fed, the OCC, the FDIC and the New York Fed declined to comment on Monday’s meeting.

The Fed has also come under pressure from US banks over its so-called Basel III endgame proposals for banking capital requirements, based on rules global regulators agreed at the Basel committee a decade ago.

US lenders believed the original proposals were too draconian and threatened to sue the Fed, prompting it to drop them. Michael Barr, the Fed’s vice-chair for banking supervision, has since quit that role while remaining on its board. Barr has recently been replaced by Michelle Bowman, who is expected to release less stringent guidelines soon.

>>> US After Hours Summary: Busy earnings session; PINS +15.6%, GDOT +14.9%, TMD

After Hours Summary: Busy earnings session; PINS +15.6%, GDOT +14.9%, TMDX +13.5%, TTD +11.8%, LYFT +7.8%, MCHP +7.8% higher on earnings; GMED -17.2%, REAL -11.7%, ZIP -8%, EXPE -7.8%, MNST -1.9% lower on earnings

After Hours Gainers:

Companies trading higher in after hours in reaction to earnings/guidance: LASR +16.1%, PINS +15.6%, GDOT +14.9%, TMDX +13.5%, AMN +13.2%, ST +12.4%, MITK +11.8%, TTD +11.8%, PSIX +11.7%, NGVC +9.8%, PODD +9.6% (also authorizes new $125 mln share repurchase program), CLFD +9.1%, NET +8.5%, TOST +8% (also announces deal with Topgolf), ABL +8%, LYFT +7.8% (also increases share repurchase program to $750 mln), MCHP +7.8%, MNR +7.6%, ICUI +7.2%, AVPT +6.9%, RXT +6.9%, CARG +6.6%, FOXF +6.4%, PUBM +5.9% (also increases share repurchase authorization by $100 mln), PRTA +5.6%, AMPX +5.6%, TWNP +5%, TXG +4.3%, CRNX +4%, LNT +3.1%, ZD +3%, CLNE +2.9%, FNKO +2.9%, DIOD +2.7% (also authorizes new $100 mln share repurchase program), MCK +2.3%, SYNA +2.2%, FROG +2.1%, TXRH +2.1%, YELP +2.1%, NTRA +2%, SPT +2%, VCTR +2%, TKO +1.9%, DKNG +1.8%, WEST +1.6%, ZYME +1.6%, OLO +1.5%, RUM +1.5%, HUBG +1.3%, VREX +1.3% (also receives $25 mln in orders for inspection systems), WPM +1.3%, XIFR +0.8%, MP +0.6%, POST +0.3%, AGO +0.1%, SGHC +0.1%

Companies trading higher in after hours in reaction to news: CRVS +46.6% (new interim data from phase 1 trial evaluating soquelitinib), PHX +20.7% (to be acquired by WhiteHawk Income), MAT +3.6% (names new CFO), ICHR +2.3% (CEO buy shares), MODG +1.7% (announces deal with TOST), WY +1.5% (authorizes new $1 bln share repurchase program), HRTG +1% (full placement of reinsurance program), ECL +0.6% (names MCD exec to board), HSTM +0.5% (authorizes new $25 mln share repurchase program), AA +0.5% (names new non-executive Chairman)

After Hours Losers:

Companies trading lower in after hours in reaction to earnings/guidance: IOVA -42%, WOLF -23.4%, RCEL -20.4%, ORGO -18.5%, GMED -17.2%, DCGO -16.7%, FIGS -12.2%, PCRX -11.7%, REAL -11.7%, EXFY -10.5%, KODK -10.3%, INOD -10.2%, HROW -9.7%, XPOF -9.5%, AAOI -9.4%, GRND -9.4%, ONTO -9.2%, SG -9%, AFRM -8.9%, CVRX -8.7%, FLWS -8.3% (also names new CEO), ZIP -8%, EXPE -7.8%, HUBS -6.9% (also authorizes new $500 mln share repurchase program), OUT -5.9%, SOUN -4.8%, ARLO -4.3%, ASTH -4%, CLSK -4%, GSAT -3.7%, BILL -3.5%, COIN -3.5% (also files mixed securities shelf offering), MTUS -3.4%, COMP -3.4%, RKLB -3% (also to launch Neutron for U.S. Air Force), ILMN -2.9%, QXO -2.9%, SOLV -2.6%, AKAM -2.4%, BBDC -2.3%, AUR -2.3%, DV -2.1%, MARA -2.1%, MNST -1.9%, SUZ -1.9%, BHF -1.4%, FNV -1.4%, TREX -1.4%, DBX -1.3%, RKT -1.3%, RNG -0.8%, AHR -0.7%, ALRM -0.6%, TMCI -0.5%, ATGE -0.4%, EVH -0.3%, PARA -0.3%, INGM -0.3% (also increases dividend), OS -0.1%, PBA -0.1%

Companies trading lower in after hours in reaction to news: CTLP -3.4% (partnership with Carnival Cruise), AUTL -3% (files for 54,584,250 ADS offering by selling shareholders), KROS -2.7% (responds to "misleading" statement from ADAR1), TERN -2% (files for $300 mln mixed securities shelf offering), QUBT -1.9% (names new COO), PRMB -1.5% (47.5 mln share offering by selling shareholders), IDA -1.3% (commences $450 mln share offering), MGM -0.4% (new employment agreement with CEO), VTRS -0.2% (files mixed securities shelf offering), WMS -0.1% (acquires River Valley Pipe), CNS -0.1% (reports April AUM), NHC -0.1% (increases dividend), CTVA -0.1% (files mixed securities shelf offering), CDTX -0.1% (files for $500 mln mixed securities shelf offering)

FT : Pakistan’s bellicose army chief is playing with fire

Pakistan’s bellicose army chief is playing with fire
At a time of crisis, the country is being led by a general not known for his restraint

On May 7, Indian jets targeted several sites deep inside Pakistan, killing 31 people according to Islamabad. The attack was expected, especially given that India’s Prime Minister Narendra Modi promised to punish the perpetrators of the April assault that killed 26 civilians inside Indian-administered Kashmir. Now, Pakistan’s Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif has authorised his army chief to retaliate.

However, a further response runs the risk of escalating tension to a boiling point between the two nuclear-armed neighbours. This is happening at a time when geopolitical alliances are in flux. Unlike in past India-Pakistan wars when great powers restrained the warring parties, no one is seeking to hold them back now.

The US isn’t acting forcefully to lower the temperature between New Delhi and Islamabad. Although Donald Trump has offered his mediation services, there is no rush of senior US officials to the region. The rowdy boys have been left to fight alone with no headmaster present to march them to their respective corners. Other actors like Saudi Arabia and the UK may urge de-escalation but that won’t have the same effect as pressure from Washington.

In Pakistan, the public — unaware of militant training camps in their midst and conditioned to see Pakistan as the victim — is clamouring for retaliation. Whatever happens next will depend on one man: the country’s army chief, Asim Munir. Munir controls Pakistan’s strategic decision-making far more than the elected government led by Sharif. And he is not a figure known for his restraint.

One of the reasons that New Delhi believes that Pakistan-based militants were behind the April attack is because of a speech that Munir delivered a week earlier. In it, he referred to Kashmir as Pakistan’s “jugular vein” and vowed not to leave Kashmiris alone in their struggle for independence from India. 

He also expressed the polarising view that Pakistan came into being in 1947 because the Hindus and Muslims of the subcontinent could not live together. In so doing, Munir has departed dramatically from the outlook of his predecessor, Qamar Javed Bajwa, who in 2021 spoke about burying the hatchet with India, mainly because in his estimation Pakistan couldn’t afford to fight a war. 

Munir was once Bajwa’s head of the Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI), the military’s prime intelligence agency. Back then, he didn’t contradict his boss. Now that he’s in charge, he seems intent on taking the military back to its old posture of vying for control of Kashmir and treating India as the prime enemy. 

Munir has a reputation for hewing to his religious and ideological beliefs and disliking being challenged. Indeed, some of his older colleagues recall him leaving the room when contradicted, even during informal conversations among officers.

He is now seeking to play the role of strongman in a country that has been riven by political divisions in recent years. Many Pakistani voters suspect Munir of manipulating the 2024 elections and helping to force the cricketer-turned-politician Imran Khan out of power. The ongoing conflict with India may have rehabilitated his image temporarily but, given the defence establishment’s dominance of the country’s institutions, it will also put pressure on him to prove the military’s might — in a real conflict against a larger neighbour at a time when the country is under huge economic pressure. 

Controlling everything from politics to the economy makes Munir a powerful man, but he’s not a magician who can rescue Pakistan from its economic troubles. A war that pits him against Narendra Modi, another nationalist strongman, will complicate matters even more. The decision Munir must take now is whether to seek a dialogue with India to end the conflict — or get sucked into a greater strategic abyss. 

FT : WeightWatchers blames diet drugs and social media for bankruptcy

WeightWatchers blames diet drugs and social media for bankruptcy
Problems for the well-known brand began with the Coronavirus pandemic and continued as prescriptions gained favour

A one-two punch of diet drugs and TikTok undermined one of the most trusted brands in fat loss, lawyers for WeightWatchers told a US bankruptcy judge on Thursday, as the bankrupt company seeks to reorganise into a slimmer version of itself.

WeightWatchers, officially known as WW International, Inc., filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection on Tuesday night in a Delaware federal court with the company having already cut a pre-packaged deal to hand control of the business to secured lenders and bondholders.

As recently as 2018, WeightWatchers, whose core business relied on hosting workshops for people sharing the experience of fighting fat together, had $1.5bn in annual revenue and a market capitalisation of more than $7bn. Oprah Winfrey owned a tenth of the company and joined its board of directors.

But the Coronavirus pandemic gutted the WeightWatchers workshop model, and annual revenue fell to under $800mn by 2024. Winfrey left the company’s board last year. Its lawyers said it could no longer service a $1.6bn debt load because of an “evolution in consumer preferences and the rapid rise of GLP-1s”, and it was seeking an aggregate valuation of $700mn.

“Consumers are increasingly prioritising holistic health and rejecting traditional weight-loss narratives,” WeightWatchers wrote in a court filing submitted this week. 

“The rise of free and low-cost do-it-yourself (“DIY”) weight-loss apps reflects consumers’ growing demand for self-guided, flexible solutions. The DIY trend is further fuelled by influencers sharing personal success stories and guidance via social media, including Instagram, TikTok and YouTube.”

In 2023, WeightWatchers bought the telehealth start-up Sequence for $106mn. Sequence then became the company’s clinical offering that could prescribe GLP-1s like Ozempic and Wegovy. Still, the company remained largely wedded to the workshop model even as its subscriber count fell 12 per cent to 3.3mn in 2024, and its new prescription business failed to make up the difference.

By comparison, Him and Hers, a telehealth company that went public in 2021 and also offers weight loss drug prescriptions, has seen its market capitalisation soar to more than $11bn. 

WeightWatchers is expected to exit bankruptcy next month. Its lawyers told the court current shareholders could get just under a tenth of the company’s reorganised equity, potentially worth $20mn or $30mn, if certain milestones are hit during the bankruptcy process.

Last year, the company’s then chief executive officer, Sima Sistani, told the FT that WeightWatchers was attempting to be a judgment-free “weight health” company embracing “a full spectrum of solutions”. She left the company five months later.

>>> US Gapping down

Gapping down
In reaction to earnings/guidance
:
  • ERII -24.3%, DNUT -19.6%, FLNC -14%, ASPN -10.4%, G -10.2%, ARM -9.5%, LNW -8.5%, ARGX -8.4%, FTNT -8.1%, SHOP -8.1%, ENOV -8%, FWRD -7.8%, EQX -7.6%, CLF -7.4%, SGI -7.2%, SPB -6.7%, TLN -6.7%, STAA -5.8% (also initiates cost controls and restructuring; also withdraws previous outlook), ASLE -5.5%, WRBY -4.7%, MBUU -4.7%, GPRE -4.5%, BBSI -4.3%, CNR -4.3%, SEMR -4.1%, MUSA -3.9%, NTR -3.8%, FNF -3.6%, TAP -3.6%, PTON -3.3%, INSM -3.3%, CENX -3.1%, ARHS -3.1%, CTVA -3%, USFD -2.9%, ADMA -2.7%, PLNT -2.7%, CCOI -2.7%, YETI -2.6%, PENN -2.4%, HASI -2.3%, SWKS -2.2% (also names new CFO), QNST -2.1%, ZG -2%, TNK -2% (also declares $1/sh special dividend), BLBD -2%, WBD -2%, ADTN -1.9%, TM -1.9%, SBGI -1.7%, SITC -1.7%, FUN -1.7%, COLD -1.7%, GT -1.6%
Other news:
  • XGN -13.5% (stock offering)
  • VRDN -0.8% (receives FDA Breakthrough Therapy Designation for Veligrotug)

>>> US Gapping up

Gapping up
In reaction to earnings/guidance
:
  • SEZL +36.1%, PBPB +35.7%, MXCT +31.8%, DAVE +28.7%, KRO +20.8%, HCAT +20.7%, EBS +20.3%, LZ +16.1% (also $100 mln increase in share repurchase authorization), QBTS +16%, TPC +15.7%, APP +14.9% (also to sell mobile gaming business to Tripledot), LEU +14%, KAR +12.6%, STKL +12.4%, STR +12.1% (also increases buyback authorization by $300 mln), ALVO +12.1%, RUN +11.5%, MGNI +11.2%, EPAM +10.5%, MEG +10.2%, ACVA +10.1%, UTI +9.8%, OMI +9.5%, TPR +9.1%, MELI +8.7%, VYX +8.6%, GRPN +8.5%, BMBL +8.4%, SN +8.4%, TTEK +8.2%, GDRX +8.2%, BV +7.9% (also $100 mln share repurchase program), CMP +7.5%, MQ +7.3%, TGLS +7.3%, PBI +7.2% (also increases dividend), IONQ +7% (also to acquire Lightsynq; also to launch satellite quantum key distribution network), COHR +6.8%, STGW +6.7%, AXON +6.2%, LTH +6.1%, ALGM +6%, MMS +5.9%, NXST +5.9%, CON +5.6%, CORZ +5.5%, AOSL +5.2%, APPN +5.2%, CXW +5%, FSLY +5%, NABL +5%, SNEX +4.8%, VAC +4.8%, WWW +4.8%, VCYT +4.7%, EVTC +4.7%, XRAY +4.7%, CVNA +4.6%, SITM +4.6%, STVN +4.5%, ROOT +4.4%, CXT +4.3%, RELY +4.3%, BKH +4.3%, KVUE +4.3%, QDEL +4.1%, JBI +4.1%, MRUS +4%, AMG +3.9%, MKSI +3.8%, EE +3.8%, CDE +3.8%, RVMD +3.8%, JOBY +3.7%, NOMD +3.7%, ORA +3.5% (also to sell its Blue Mountain geothermal power facility), SLNO +3.4% (also provides update on US launch of VYKAT XR), RXST +3.4%, CNQ +3.4%, ESE +3.3%, ECPG +3.3%, XPER +3.3%, PAAS +3.2%, SPNS +3.2%, IIPR +3%, ATHM +3%, SSYS +3%, SDGR +2.9%, IHG +2.9%, PRMB +2.7%, CPK +2.6%, ACIW +2.6%, APA +2.5% (also to sell 13,320 net acres from PR), ESTA +2.5% (also names new CEO), AWR +2.4%, QTWO +2.4%, ACMR +2.4%, HUT +2.4%, CF +2.3% (also authorizes new $2 bln share repurchase program), GXO +2.3%, BROS +2.2%, LNC +2.2%, BHF +2.1%, SNDK +2%, EOLS +2%, ABEV +2%, SYM +1.9%, NATL +1.9%, CSGS +1.9%, PRI +1.9%, YOU +1.9%, INSW +1.9%, BIGC +1.9%, CROX +1.8%, REAX +1.8%, JXN +1.7%, MIRM +1.7%, CG +1.6%, CW +1.5%, HLI +1.5% (also increases dividend), BUD +1.5%, COP +1.5%,
Other news:
  • DSGN +52.6% (files for $300 mln mixed securities shelf offering)
  • WGRX +8.1% (Secures $50 mln credit facility and launches XRP-Powered Payment Initiative)
  • HNST +6.5% (names new CFO)
  • DVAX +2.9% (issues statement to shareholders)
  • EIG +2.5% (CFO purchased 3,050 shares)
  • VLRS +2.5% (reports April traffic)
  • HUN +2.3% (CEO purchased 42,000 shares)
  • TKC +1.9% (wins tender)
  • FFAI +1.8% (files three patent applications through its future AIHER Subsidiary)

The Information : Ex-Synapse CEO’s Robot Startup Targets $1 Billion Valuation

Ex-Synapse CEO’s Robot Startup Targets $1 Billion Valuation

The Takeaway
• Synapse’s former CEO founded the startup before the fintech’s collapse
• The startup, Foundation, is close to raising $100 million
• It aims to sell humanoid robots to the military, car makers

A humanoid robotics startup founded by the former chief executive of failed fintech firm Synapse is aiming to finalize a $100 million fundraising that will value the year-old company at $1 billion, according to people who spoke to the company’s founders this week.

The startup is in talks to raise money from the family office of a member of the Saudi Arabia royal family among other investors, according to the people. The steep fundraising target, for a company that has just started to generate revenue, speaks to the recent investor excitement for robotics startups—even those whose leader has a checkered history.

CEO Sankaet Pathak incorporated Foundation in February 2024 shortly before the collapse of fintech Synapse amid a dispute with its banking partners about discrepancies in its ledgers, which saddled customers with tens of millions in unaccounted funds.

The Justice Department’s Southern District of New York convened a grand jury in 2024 to investigate the matter, according to a court filing in the Synapse bankruptcy case. Pathak has publicly denied any wrongdoing and blamed the banks for moving funds they shouldn’t have. He did not respond to a request for comment.

By that point, Pathak was running Foundation, which he co-founded with Tribe Capital co-founder Arjun Sethi and robotics startup cofounder Mike LeBlanc.

The San Francisco-based Foundation makes humanoid robots that aim to perform dangerous jobs in place of people, such as refueling vehicles in conflict zones. The robots could also manufacture goods in places with labor shortages or handle household tasks.

It plans to lease the robots and charge regular fees for software to run them. It’s been generating some revenue so far from grants and trials from customers in the U.S. military, carmakers and supply chain and logistics companies.

The company, which has around 35 employees, earlier this year debuted its first humanoid robot, Phantom. One of the robots played DJ at a San Francisco bar in January.

Last year the company raised $11 million in a seed round from investors including Tribe Capital and Defined Capital, an artificial intelligence-focused venture capital firm that was founded by a former Tribe managing partner. Defined and Tribe are also in talks to invest in Foundation’s latest round, according to people familiar with the discussions.

Foundation is one of a growing number of startups and large tech firms, including Tesla and OpenAI, looking to harness recent breakthroughs in AI to develop robots that can perform a wide variety of tasks. Figure AI, another humanoid robotics startup, has told investors it wants to raise $1.5 billion at a nearly $40 billion valuation despite generating no revenue last year.

The new valuation for Foundation would add to the handful of robot startups worth at least $1 billion, according to The Information’s Generative AI Database. Another humanoid maker, Agility Robotics, has been in talks to raise $400 million at a pre-investment valuation of $1.75 billion.

While investors are enthusiastic, the founders face a host of challenges, including obtaining enough data to train the robots and the rising cost of hardware due to the recent trade war with China.

They are also in fierce competition with each other. Pathak recently posted on X that Figure’s strategy of raising large sums of money before going to market was “flawed and a total distraction.” Pathak also claimed his robots were “twice as strong” as Figure’s.

>>> Europe : Brokers Upgrades & Downgrades - 8th of May 2025 V2(+)

>>> Up
* AMD Raised to Buy at DZ Bank; PT $118 (+)
* Deliveroo Raised to Neutral at Redburn; PT 115 pence
* Evolution Raised to Hold at Deutsche Bank; PT 689 kronor
* HKFoods Raised to Accumulate at Inderes; PT 1.30 euros
* Mosaic Raised to Outperform at RBC; PT $40
* Pandora Raised to Sector Perform at RBC; PT 1,050 kroner
* Rational Raised to Hold at HSBC; PT 750 euros
* Rockwell Automation Raised to Neutral at JPMorgan; PT $271
* Stendorren Fastigheter Raised to Buy at Pareto Securities
* Weir Group Raised to Buy at UBS (+)

>>> Down
* Ahold Delhaize Cut to Hold at Kepler Cheuvreux (+)
* Coty Cut to Hold at Canaccord; PT $5
* Coty Cut to Hold at Deutsche Bank; PT $6
* Deliveroo Cut to Hold at Jefferies; PT 180 pence
* Deliveroo Cut to Hold at HSBC; PT 180 pence
* DNB Bank Cut to Neutral at SpareBank; PT 280 kroner
* Endesa Cut to Sell at Goldman; PT 26 euros
* Endesa Cut to Neutral at Oddo BHF; PT 27.50 euros
* Hammerson Cut to Sell at UBS (+)
* Hensoldt Cut to Neutral at Oddo BHF; PT 78 euros
* Hillenbrand Cut to Sector Weight at KeyBanc
* Jyske Cut to Hold at SEB Equities; PT 605 kroner
* Sats Cut to Hold at DNB Markets; PT 37 kroner
* Sats Cut to Hold at Pareto Securities; PT 39 kroner
* Skanska Cut to Hold at Jefferies; PT 235 kronor
* SmartCraft Cut to Sell at SpareBank; PT 20 kroner
* Tallink GDRs Cut to Neutral at Swedbank; PT 70 euro cents
* Telecom Italia Cut to Neutral at New Street Research

>>> Initiation
* DSV Reinstated Buy at Deutsche Bank; PT 1,770 kroner (+)
* Eleco Rated New Buy at Canaccord; PT 176 pence
* Halozyme Rated New Buy at William O'Neil
* Legrand Rated New Overweight at Oxcap; PT 124.90 euros
* Rexel Rated New Equal-Weight at Oxcap; PT 26.80 euros
* Scout24 Rated New Buy at William O'Neil
* Telecom Plus Reinstated Buy at Berenberg; PT 2,600 pence (+)

>>> Call
* Rheinmetall’s Detailed Sales Hint at Guidance Upside: Jefferies (+)
* Companies Beat on Earnings Even as Growth Slows: Deutsche Bank (+)
* Puma Climbs as Maintained Outlook Provides Relief, Says RBC (+)
* Rheinmetall’s Detailed Sales Hint at Guidance Upside: Jefferies (+)

WSJ : Shippers Are Skeptical of Trump’s Truce With the Houthis

Shippers Are Skeptical of Trump’s Truce With the Houthis
With an unclear deal and the Gaza war continuing, top carriers have no plans to return to the Red Sea soon

Key Points
  • Shippers are hesitant to return to Red Sea routes despite a tentative U.S.-Houthi cease-fire deal due to security concerns.
  • The cease-fire’s vague terms and continued war in Gaza raise doubts about the safety of commercial shipping.
  • Attacks on commercial ships will continue to be considered a threat by some until the Houthis are disarmed.

Shippers aren’t yet confident enough to return to routes through the Red Sea, despite a tentative cease-fire deal between the U.S. and Yemen’s Houthi militia.

The top five container-shipping companies said they were assessing the deal announced Tuesday by President Trump but had no immediate plans to return to the area where the Houthis began targeting merchant ships in late 2023 in response to the war in the Gaza Strip.

“We are not going back any time soon,” said Nils Haupt, a spokesman for German liner Hapag-Lloyd. “It’s a good development, but it needs a lot of security guarantees for the Red Sea to be considered safe for big merchant ships.”

Shippers said the area will remain volatile as long as the war continues. And while the Houthis and U.S. pledged not to attack each other while the cease-fire holds, the agreement is vague and makes no clear mention of ending attacks on commercial shipping, said Christopher Long, intelligence director at security firm Neptune P2P Group and a former British naval officer.

A Pentagon official said there is still work to be done to guarantee safe navigation, which could include limited Navy escorts for crossing ships as the truce begins and diplomacy to get the Houthis to stop attacking Israel. The Houthis said Wednesday that they fired drones at Israel. The Israeli military said it had intercepted a drone attack.

“It will take some time before the southern Red Sea is safe, and we are working on it,” the official said. “It will also depend on how the Houthis behave.”

Following more limited operations by the Biden administration last year, Trump ordered the Pentagon to escalate the bombing campaign in Yemen for nearly two months, aiming to stop Houthi attacks that have driven shippers away from one of the world’s most important waterways.

Traffic through the Red Sea is down by 60%. Carriers have switched to longer and more expensive routes around the Cape of Good Hope. Analysts say it could take months to restore shippers’ confidence.

Ellie Shafik, the executive in charge of intelligence at British maritime company Vanguard Tech, said U.S. maritime officials “have advised caution in terms of whether the latest cease-fire will result in lasting safety and security for commercial shipping in the Red Sea.”

The Houthis, who swept out of the mountains of Yemen to take over much of the country a decade ago, started to launch drones and missiles at Israel after Israeli forces entered Gaza following the deadly Hamas-led Oct. 7, 2023, attacks. They also began to attack international shipping that transited the Red Sea and nearby waters.

Commodities-data company Kpler said Wednesday that the shipping community will consider the Houthis a threat until they are disarmed or prevented from striking vessels, resulting in high war-risk premiums and a preference among shipowners to keep avoiding the area.

One of the points of confusion is whether the truce applies broadly to commercial shipping or just U.S. vessels. The Houthis said Wednesday they would continue to target ships linked to Israel. That is a definition they have applied in unpredictable ways previously, at times attacking vessels with a loose connection to the country or targeting others by mistake.

Any shooting in the narrow waterway will cause shippers to worry that their vessels could be hit accidentally or suffer collateral damage.

“Shippers are reticent to go back into the Red Sea when it’s really unclear how long this will last and who’s really affected—which shipping companies or which flags are going to be honored by the Houthis or not,” said Bryan Clark, a senior fellow at the Hudson Institute think tank in Washington.

Large maritime companies didn’t return to their Red Sea routes when the Houthis said in January they wouldn’t attack U.S. and British vessels during a Gaza cease-fire that ended up running for two months. The Yemeni militants resumed their attacks after Israel went back to war in the enclave.

Clark assessed that shippers would stick to their current routes until there is a more sustained end to Israel’s war in Gaza, where Israel’s government recently approved a major expansion of combat activity.

“Going back to their previous routes would be costly, and then if they had to shift back again because the Houthis begin attacks again, they’re just going to lose money every time that happens,” said Clark, a former strategic planner for the Navy. “So if you’re a shipping company you might say, ‘I’m going to wait it out and see if there is an enduring end to the conflict.’”