>>> US Research Calls I

Research Calls I
  • Upgrades
    • Affirm (AFRM) upgraded to Positive from Neutral at Susquehanna, tgt $65
    • Autoliv (ALV) upgraded to Outperform from Neutral at BNP Paribas Exane, tgt $123
    • Carrier Global (CARR) upgraded to Buy from Hold at Northcoast, tgt $85
    • Cisco (CSCO) upgraded to Buy from Neutral at Cleveland Research
    • GeneDx (WGS) upgraded to Buy from Hold at Jefferies, tgt $80
    • Haleon (HLN) upgraded to Overweight from Equal Weight at Morgan Stanley, tgt $11.25
    • Lyft (LYFT) upgraded to Buy from Neutral at Goldman, tgt $20
    • Microchip (MCHP) upgraded to Neutral from Underperform at BofA Securities, tgt $56
    • National Vision (EYE) upgraded to Buy from Neutral at Citigroup, tgt $21
    • nLIGHT (LASR) upgraded to Buy from Hold at Craig Hallum; tgt $14
    • Ouster (OUST) upgraded to Buy from Hold at WestPark Capital
    • Owens Corning (OC) upgraded to Outperform from Peer Perform at Wolfe Research
    • PTC Therapeutics (PTCT) upgraded to Buy from Neutral at BofA Securities, tgt $68
    • Rockwell Automation (ROK) upgraded to Hold from Sell at TD Cowen, tgt $275
    • Shopify (SHOP) upgraded to Outperform from Sector Perform at ATB Capital
  • Downgrades
    • AMD (AMD) downgraded to Hold from Buy at DBS Bank, tgt $105
    • Apellis (APLS) downgraded to Neutral from Buy at BofA Securities, tgt $23
    • Apellis (APLS) downgraded to Outperform from Strong Buy at Raymond James, tgt $52
    • Block (XYZ) downgraded to Neutral from Outperform at KGI Securities, tgt $55
    • Cytek Biosciences (CTKB) downgraded to Hold from Buy at TD Cowen, tgt $4
    • CVRx (CVRX) downgraded to Underweight from Neutral at JPMorgan, tgt $7
    • Definitive Healthcare (DH) downgraded to Neutral from Buy at BTIG Research
    • DocGo (DCGO) downgraded to Neutral from Buy at BTIG Research
    • Expedia (EXPE) downgraded to Underweight from Neutral at Piper Sandler, tgt $135
    • First Advantage (FA) downgraded to Sector Perform from Outperform at RBC Capital, tgt $20
    • Holley (HLLY) downgraded to Hold from Buy at Benchmark
    • Intermex (IMXI) downgraded to Market Perform from Outperform at BMO Capital, tgt $11
    • International Paper (IP) downgraded to Underweight from Equal Weight at Wells Fargo, tgt $40
    • Iovance (IOVA) downgraded to Market Perform from Outperform at Citizens JMP
    • Kraft Heinz (KHC) downgraded to Hold from Buy at DZ Bank, tgt $31
    • Murphy USA (MUSA) downgraded to Market Perform from Outperform at Raymond James
    • Packaging Corp. (PKG) downgraded to Equal Weight from Overweight at Wells Fargo, tgt $180
    • Palmer Square (PSBD) downgraded to Perform from Outperform at Oppenheimer
    • Satixfy (SATX) downgraded to Neutral from Buy at Alliance Global Partners, tgt $2.10
    • Sea Limited (SE) downgraded to Neutral from Buy at BofA, tgt $160
    • Stagwell (STGW) downgraded to Hold from Buy at Benchmark, tgt $9.50
    • Wolfspeed (WOLF) downgraded to Underweight from Neutral at JPMorgan
  • Others
    • HF Foods Group (HFFG) initiated with a Buy at Roth Capital, tgt $7
    • Himax (HIMX) initiated with an Overweight at Morgan Stanley, tgt $8.80
    • Industrial Logistics Property Trust (ILPT) assumed with Buy at B. Riley, tgt $5
    • Qualcomm (QCOM) initiated with a Neutral at Seaport Research Partners
    • RingCentral (RNG) assumed with Buy at Needham, tgt $36
    • Synaptics (SYNA) assumed with Buy at Needham, tgt $80

FT : OpenAI chief Sam Altman: ‘This is genius-level intelligence’

OpenAI chief Sam Altman: ‘This is genius-level intelligence’
The tech entrepreneur on the risks and opportunities of AI, his dispute with Elon Musk and why he has the ‘most important job maybe in history’

Sam Altman’s escape from the Silicon Valley pack is a sprawling farm at the end of a road that snakes through the vine-swept hills in Napa Valley. I spot the 40-year-old with slightly tousled hair in the open-plan kitchen of the wide bay-windowed house, and I step right in. His bemused look tells me that I wasn’t expected. I am, it turns out, nearly an hour early, but the man behind ChatGPT will finish up a meeting and join me in the garden. I wait under a grapevine-shaded pergola that runs along the house.

For a Lunch with the FT, Altman offered to cook a simple vegetarian meal at his farm instead of meeting me at a restaurant of his choice, where he’s likely to be hounded by selfie-seekers. Since OpenAI, the company he runs, released the generative AI model in 2022, Altman has been catapulted to the status of worldwide celebrity. Last year, he married his software engineer boyfriend and they’ve recently had a baby boy via surrogacy (he consulted ChatGPT on which crib to buy) so he’s been spending more time on the Napa farm.

Altman takes only a few minutes to join me outside. He has built OpenAI into one of the fastest-growing companies ever, with a staggering valuation of more than $250bn, and accelerated a fierce race for AI supremacy: the pursuit of artificial general intelligence, when a machine can surpass the cognitive abilities of humans, not only absorbing knowledge but reasoning and learning on its own.

But it has been a rollercoaster journey in which Altman has been fired and rehired by his own company, his character and commitment to the safe development of AI subjected to bruising questions. He’s wrestled with Elon Musk, with whom he co-founded OpenAI, and sparred with Scarlett Johansson, who accused him of using an “eerily similar” voice to her own to train a chatbot. Having stolen a march on more established competitors (Google in particular, given that it has long had the lead in AI research), he’s been courted by presidents and prime ministers and he has seduced some of the world’s biggest investors.

There are some people who are, like, ‘all AI art is terrible’, but then there’s a lot of artists who are, like, ‘this is the best tool ever’

I find Altman brimming with confidence as our conversation ranges from AI products to the existential question of an AI future that a handful of optimistic technologists are steadily leading us to, whether we like it or not. Radiating ambition, he sounds like a man convinced of his own destiny. He tells me that he has the “coolest, most important job maybe in history” and while he used to think AI was as consequential as the Industrial Revolution, he now reckons the “explosion in creativity” makes the Renaissance a more apt analogy.

We are meeting soon after the release of OpenAI’s o3, a more advanced AI model with improved capability to reason and generate images. It is, he says, an important step towards the creation of AI agents that can execute tasks on humans’ behalf, and which all leading AI companies are furiously pursuing. “People are saying like, this is . . . genius-level intelligence,” he gushes.

No sooner was the tool released than users flooded the internet with images generated in the style of the Japanese animation house Studio Ghibli. That gave Altman and OpenAI a sensational marketing boost, but renewed questions about the liberal use of others’ intellectual property to train AI models and generate art. Altman says compensation for artists may be required (his company has done licensing deals with publishers, including the FT), but he prefers to put the tools out into the world and then find answers to questions that arise.

“There are some people who are, like, ‘all AI art is terrible’, but then there’s a lot of artists who are, like, ‘this is the best tool ever, it’s like the invention of the camera’,” says Altman. “We agree we need a new business model for this kind of a world, but what it is, the community is still sort of feeling their way through. I know that we’ve got to converge on what it should be.”

We are back in the kitchen and I watch Altman season with cumin the yellow and orange carrots grown on the farm, which are then roasted in the oven. With impressive determination, he chops an enormous amount of garlic, which he tosses into a pan with red chilli peppers, walnuts, parsley and pecorino to make what looks like a Californian take on aglio e olio spaghetti. The salad leaves, with thinly sliced carrots and radishes, are in the fridge already and need only dressing. Altman visibly enjoys cooking and, as I will soon find out, is rather good at it.

As we talk, I search for clues in his upbringing that hint at his future stardom. He says there are none. “I was like a kind of nerdy Jewish kid in the Midwest . . . So technology was just not a thing. Like being into computers was sort of, like, unusual. And I certainly never could have imagined that I would have ended up working on this technology in such a way. I still feel sort of surreal that that happened.”

The eldest of the four children of a dermatologist mother and a father who worked in real estate, Altman read a lot of science-fiction books, watched Star Trek and liked computers. In 2005, he dropped out of Stanford University before graduating to launch a social networking start-up. In those days, AI was still in its infancy: “We could show a system a thousand images of cats, and a thousand images of dogs, and then it [the AI] could correctly classify them, and that was, like, you were living the high life.”

Soon, Altman was running Y Combinator, a start-up accelerator that had backed his first venture. He was still there when he started OpenAI in 2015 as a non-profit with a mission that artificial general intelligence should benefit all of humanity. Musk was a co-founder who financed it with tens of millions of dollars but then fell out with Altman and left its board in 2018 in one of Silicon Valley’s most closely watched feuds. Musk, who has been growing his own AI rival company, xAI, alleges in a lawsuit that Altman had strayed from the company’s founding mission. Altman has countersued: “It seems clear to me why he’s doing all of this,” he says of Musk. “Because he’s trying to slow down a competitor and he doesn’t like that he’s like not winning in AI.”

Musk may have his personal motives but the debate over how to “win” in AI — which requires massive computing power and investment — without loosening commitment to safety, has long divided OpenAI. The splits exploded into the open in November 2023, when the non-profit board suddenly fired Altman, with one board member later accusing him of misrepresenting information and in some cases lying to the board.

Altman prevailed. He was reinstated within days, after nearly all employees threatened to resign and Microsoft, then the company’s largest financial backer, offered to hire Altman and his team. “It was very painful and very embarrassing that this whole thing happened, and no one, including me, really knew all of it at the time. What I wanted was to go sit on a beach and recover but I had to just keep running the company and now clean up a gigantic mess.” That mess, he says, included customers and investors asking whether they could depend on the company.

What I wanted was to go sit on a beach and recover but I had to just keep running the company and now clean up a gigantic mess

The storm led to the departure of some of OpenAI’s best researchers and left lingering questions about Altman. But it also cemented his status as the company’s undisputed leader, with a new board that backs him.

His ambitions too have expanded: early this year, he starred in another headline-grabbing event, appearing at the White House with Donald Trump to announce a joint venture with Japan’s SoftBank that will raise hundreds of billions of dollars to develop AI infrastructure, including data centres.

But while he has shifted the narrative around OpenAI’s mission as its commercial potential has become more apparent, attempts to change the company structure to a more traditional for-profit business have met with resistance, from Musk as well as from AI experts who insist the company must remain under a non-profit board to fulfil its mission of developing technology to benefit all humanity.

I ask Altman whether he learnt from the attempted coup. One criticism of him is that he tells people what they want to hear, depending on what’s expedient. All he will admit to is that he does prefer to avoid conflict and he’s had to learn quickly how to run such a complex company. “In the last two years we have gone through a decade and half of a normal company’s growth.”

It’s a busy day at the farm. Altman’s mother is visiting, as are his in-laws. His husband and son, as well as a colleague, are in the house too. They come in and out of the kitchen. Altman lays the bowls of food on a table, we serve ourselves and go back to sit in the garden. The pasta is delicious, with just the right amount of spice, the carrots crunchy, and the salad tastes light and juicy.

As a chief disrupter who is hyperactive on social media and, by his own description, OpenAI’s “marketing division”, he generates a constant stream of news. Recently that has included a dispute with an estranged sister who has accused him of sexually abusing her when she was a child (the rest of the family has backed his denials and he says he feels both compassion and upset towards a sister who’s “had a hard time of it for a long time”).

Altman claims that being competitive is not one of his defining features — “Am I not an outlier in terms of competitiveness,” he asks aloud, “compared to other tech CEOs?” — yet he relishes talk of winning. He admits that he has entertained running for governor of California (not a presidential bid though, as some have claimed); his favourite way of describing the reach of ChatGPT is not 800mn users but “10 per cent of the world”.

But how much does the competitive race ultimately matter? While Silicon Valley has been sinking massive investment into AI, DeepSeek, a Chinese start-up, released a model this year developed on a limited budget. That suggested that AI models were becoming commoditised and the US technological edge over China was diminishing. Altman says there is an “asterisk” to the commoditisation narrative: “Most of these models will be commoditised. The frontier models I don’t think will be.” He is, of course, expecting to prevail in frontier models but also win in the commoditisation game, given how many users are already attached to ChatGPT.

And how will OpenAI deliver the returns on massive investment? Altman hints at his ultimate goal, but describes it as just one compelling idea: when a subscription to ChatGPT becomes a personal AI, through which users log into other services. “You could just take your AI, which is gonna get to know you better over the course of your life, have your data in and be more personalised and you could use it anywhere. That would be a very cool platform to offer.”

The sun is too strong so we go back inside. Altman is sipping his tea, curled up on the living room sofa, his arms wrapped around his legs. We talk about the AI-dominated future his son will inherit. Diseases may be more rapidly cured by AI, and sectors from education to banking transformed. But it is a world that also raises existential questions about the way we live. Why should society trust a handful of AI men to decide on the shape of the future? In a response unlikely to convince, he says those developing the technology are “committed to meeting the gravity of the moment with responsible technology”.

AI progress is moving at such breathtaking speed that some experts favour slowing down until internationally agreed norms and regulations are put in place. Two years ago, Altman himself signed a statement with others in the field cautioning that “mitigating the risk of extinction from AI should be a global priority alongside other societal-scale risks such as pandemics and nuclear war”.

Altman insists he hasn’t changed his mind and there will be moments when holding back may be required. For now, he seems satisfied with the rollout of tools for people to experiment with and assess the risks. “The world needs to know about it [AI], the world needs to weigh in on it, very heavily. By having our users help us decide what the limits should be, like learning this collective value, function and preferences of humanity,” he says.

Some advances do scare him. After releasing a memory feature that allows the AI to register past behaviour, he has heard of cases where users become too emotionally dependent on the AI. “People are like, this is my new best friend, you can never delete this version, I need this thing . . . I have no doubt that we, society, will figure out how to navigate this, but that’s a new thing that’s just happened and you can imagine all sorts of ways that it goes really wrong.”

More alarming, I note, is a future in which AI agents communicate with each other without instruction by humans. Altman explains that perhaps it’s not an agent that creates other agents but an AI system that is so good, so trusted, that it in effect controls what humans do. “It [the AI model] becomes just better than we sort of have a conception for.” This sounds so spooky that even he seems alarmed by his words.

Altman doesn’t strike me as a man who entertains doubt but I ask how his grand plan of building an AI giant could go wrong. Is he confident that OpenAI will exist in 10 years? “Fixing fences and taking care of cows” would be his plan B, he jokes. More seriously, he says: “We could make a wrong research bet, you know, we could fall behind on product to somebody else. It’s like we’re doing a very complicated thing.”

We’ve been talking for more than two hours and his husband, holding the baby, joins us in the living room, and after some fussing, the tiny infant is falling asleep. I ask whether Altman finds his brave new world, in which humans are not the most intelligent thing on the planet, threatening — if not for him, then for his son?

He is, predictably, too enthralled by his AI creation to feel menace. “Do you think you’re smarter than o3 right now? I don’t . . . and I feel completely unbothered, and I bet you do too,” he says. “I’m hugging my baby, enjoying my tea. I’m gonna go do very exciting work all afternoon . . . I’ll be using o3 to do better work than I was able to do a month ago. I’ll go for a walk tonight. I think it’s great. I’m more capable. He [his son] will be more capable than any of us can imagine.”

FT : Sanjeev Gupta’s commodities trading firm to appoint administrators

Sanjeev Gupta’s commodities trading firm to appoint administrators
Move would mark final chapter for one of the controversial metals magnate’s oldest companies

Sanjeev Gupta is set to call in administrators to place his main commodities trading business into insolvency, marking the final chapter for one of the controversial metals magnate’s oldest companies.

Liberty Commodities, which last month renamed itself to 3349135 Limited, on Thursday filed a “notice of intention to appoint an administrator”, according to UK court records.

Liberty Commodities once claimed to trade billions of dollars in metals a year and is one of the oldest companies in Gupta’s GFG Alliance conglomerate. It was established in 1997 and traces its roots to a commodities trading operation that Gupta ran out of a dormitory room at Cambridge university in the early 1990s.

The company has not filed audited annual accounts in nearly five years, however, making the current scale of its operations and assets hard to ascertain.

Gupta is being prosecuted over his alleged failure to file accounts for Liberty Commodities and more than 70 other companies. He is contesting the charges, having pleaded not guilty at a hearing in Cardiff last year.

Liberty Commodities was one of a number of Gupta’s companies that borrowed billions of dollars through Greensill Capital, which collapsed in 2021 in part due to its exposure to the metals magnate’s troubled businesses.

After Greensill’s collapse, numerous parties named on invoices issued by Liberty Commodities denied having done business with the firm. Gupta has previously denied any wrongdoing and his GFG Alliance group has co-operated with a long-running Serious Fraud Office probe into its finances.

A person familiar with the Liberty Commodities’ operations said it had not traded with third parties for “several years”. They added that GFG was “proactively” pursuing the administration as part of a wider debt restructuring.

In recent years, Liberty Commodities has previously fended off attempts to wind its business up from investors in Greensill’s invoice-backed debt deals, such as now-defunct Swiss bank Credit Suisse and US investment firm White Oak.

Gupta stepped down as a director of Liberty Commodities in July last year. He was replaced by Kenneth Tointon, a 76-year-old semi-retired accountant who has helped prepare financial statements for a number of Gupta’s businesses in the past year.

Liberty Commodities declined to comment.

CrunchBase : Coinbase Buys Deribit In Biggest Crypto Deal To Date

Coinbase Buys Deribit In Biggest Crypto Deal To Date

Crypto dealmaking is hot.

Coinbase announced Thursday the biggest deal in the crypto industry to date when it said it would buy derivatives exchange Deribit in a $2.9 billion deal to move into the crypto options markets.

The deal is made up of $700 million in cash and 11 million shares of Coinbase, per a blog post.

“This isn’t just another addition; it’s foundational to our vision of creating the most comprehensive, compliant, and user-friendly derivatives platform globally,” the blog reads. “We’re excited about the path ahead and look forward to welcoming Deribit into the Coinbase family as we shape the future of crypto markets together.”

Deribit raised a $40 million venture round at a $400 million valuation from the likes of QCP Capital and Polybius Capital in 2022, per Crunchbase.

Big deal
The deal is just the latest big M&A move in crypto. While dealmaking numbers are small, size is increasing, as the reelection of President Donald Trump has reenergized the crypto market, with many expecting regulations to ease.

Last month, crypto payments firm Ripple said it would acquire brokerage house Hidden Road for $1.25 billion. In March, the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission dropped a legal case against Ripple that accused it of conducting an illegal securities offering.

In March, cryptocurrency exchange Kraken said it would buy retail futures trading platform NinjaTrader for $1.5 billion.

Overall, venture funding to startups in the crypto and blockchain space rocketed to $3.8 billion in 220 deals in Q1, per Crunchbase data. The dollar figure represents a 138% jump from the previous quarter, which saw only $1.6 billion go to Web3 startups in 242 deals.

However, those numbers were propped up by cryptocurrency exchange Binance’s massive $2 billion investment from Abu Dhabi-based investment firm MGX. The deal is the single-largest investment into a crypto company.

>>> US Early premarket gappers

Early premarket gappers
  • Gapping up:
    • CRVS +35.2%, PHX +20.9%, TMDX +20.2%, GDOT +18%, LASR +16.4%, PSIX +14.9%, TTD +14.9%, MITK +13.3%, AMN +13.1%, PINS +12.3%, NET +11.1%, MCHP +10.5%, MTUS +9.2%, TOST +9.1%, PODD +8.9%, AGO +8.5%, LYFT +8.4%, AMPX +8%, FROG +7.8%, AVPT +7.7%, CLFD +7.5%, TGS +7.1%, TWNP +6.9%, ALRM +6.7%, ABL +6%, CBLL +5.8%, FNKO +5.7%, ICUI +5.6%, MNR +5.5%, NGVC +5.1%, EVH +4.8%, PCRX +4.7%, DH +4.6%, CARG +4.5%, TXG +4.4%, EVCM +4.3%, ICHR +3.8%, FOXF +3.8%, NTRA +3.3%, IMOS +3.3%, TERN +3%, RUM +3%, TREX +2.9%, AFYA +2.8%, ATGE +2.7%, DIOD +2.7%, SBSW +2.6%, DKNG +2.4%, TSM +2.4%, CLNE +2.3%, AA +2.1%, CRMT +2%, VCTR +1.9%, TKO +1.8%, LPLA +1.8%, SLF +1.8%, MCK +1.7%, WEST +1.6%, FRT +1.6%, MODG +1.5%, MP +1.5%, ACLX +1.5%, TXRH +1.4%, CDTX +1.3%, VIR +1.3%, ESNT +1.3%, DV +1.2%, HIVE +1.1%, IOSP +1.1%, EMBC +1.1%
  • Gapping down:
    • IOVA -34.7%, WOLF -19.6%, ORGO -18.7%, CVRX -16.6%, RCEL -16.3%, GMED -16%, FIGS -12.9%, ONTO -12.3%, HROW -9.9%, EXPE -9.7%, KODK -9.1%, OCS -9%, DCGO -8.6%, REAL -8.4%, CTLP -7.9%, FLWS -7.8%, OUT -7.7%, OS -7.4%, AFRM -6.6%, SUZ -6.5%, SPT -6.4%, GRND -6.3%, TYRA -5.6%, INOD -5.5%, TH -5.2%, NWSA -5.2%, SG -4.8%, HUBS -4.5%, INGM -3.7%, PBA -3.6%, COLL -3.6%, AAOI -3.5%, SATS -3.5%, HRTG -3.3%, IIIV -3%, ZD -2.9%, HUBG -2.8%, ZYME -2.8%, MNST -2.7%, BILL -2.6%, SYNA -2.6%, TMCI -2.5%, GSAT -2.4%, SOLV -2.3%, CLSK -2.1%, AKAM -1.7%, BBDC -1.7%, EXFY -1.6%, COMP -1.6%, QUBT -1.5%, IDA -1.5%, SOUN -1.5%, ASTH -1.5%, ILMN -1.5%, ASX -1.4%, COIN -1.3%, DBX -1.3%, RKT -1.3%, PRMB -1.2%, EGY -1.2%, MARA -1.1%, SGHC -1%

9to5 : Apple’s leaked iPhone roadmap looks bigger and better than ever

Apple’s leaked iPhone roadmap looks bigger and better than ever

Last fall, a leaked internal memo revealed Apple’s hardware chief, John Ternus, claiming the iPhone’s current roadmap was the “most ambitious in the product’s history.” Now, leaks this week laid out that big iPhone roadmap and seem to back up Ternus’s claim. Here’s what’s coming.

iPhone roadmap reveals bigger lineup than ever before
This week we got significant iPhone roadmap leaks from two prominent, reputable sources: Wayne Ma and Ming-Chi Kuo.

The iPhone 17 lineup has been clear for a while, with a base iPhone 17, iPhone 17 Pro and Pro Max, and the brand new ultra-thin iPhone 17 Air.

But now we know what to expect in the years ahead.

Foldable iPhone

2026 is expected to bring an iPhone 17e early in the year, followed by four models in the fall:

  • iPhone 18 Air: same size as 17 Air
  • iPhone 18 Pro: corner hole punch, no big cutout
  • iPhone 18 Pro Max: same as above
  • iPhone 18 Fold: Apple’s first foldable

Then in 2027, Apple will debut a whopping six new iPhones.

iPhone 18 and iPhone 18e will arrive in spring 2027, pushing the base model into a new release schedule.


Apple’s fall 2027 lineup will look similar to 2026:

  • iPhone 19 Air: larger Air screen size
  • iPhone 19 Pro: possibly no camera cutout at all
  • iPhone 19 Pro Max: same as above
  • iPhone 19 Fold: second-gen foldable

Ambitious new era for the iPhone

If the reporting from Ma and Kuo proves accurate, Apple plans to make two major moves with the iPhone in the years ahead:

  1. Growing the lineup to be bigger than ever, divided over spring and fall launches
  2. Launching exciting new models that set the stage for a new iPhone era

Getting six new iPhones every year, including two big launches every spring, will help spread out the current concentrated excitement around fall launch season.

We’ll have exciting new iPhone models to enjoy too, starting with this year’s Air, then continuing next year with the iPhone Fold.

Additionally, Pro models will get compelling design changes that could finally enable the dream of a truly all-screen look.

New iPhone roadmap: wrap-up
Over the last few years, iPhone sales have largely been stagnant. Apple still sells many hundreds of millions of iPhones each year, but the product isn’t growing.

This roadmap seems like Apple’s best chance yet to change that, achieving a new high for iPhone success. Hardware is only one piece of the story, as Apple needs compelling software and AI advancements too. But we’ll hear much more about those two pieces in just a few weeks.

FT : The periodic US default freak-out has started early

The periodic US default freak-out has started early
Examining the CDS entrails

It’s that magical time of the year again, when we once again worry that the broken US political system will result in the unnecessary sovereign default of the world’s premier reserve asset and usher in financial Ragnarok.

The US budget sausage-making has been overshadowed by the tariff shenanigans, but Treasury secretary Scott Bessent earlier this week helpfully reminded people that his department would soon also have a firm-ish date for when the US government will run out of money.

From Politico on Tuesday:

Bessent said Treasury was still tallying the massive influx of federal tax receipts that came in around the April 15 filing deadline as it works to come up with a more precise forecast for when the U.S. will exhaust its borrowing capacity — known as the X-date.

The date is widely seen as a de facto deadline for congressional Republicans to pass their megabill of tax, border and energy policies because GOP leaders have included a debt limit hike as part of the party-line package, avoiding the need for Democratic votes.

Bessent previously said that he would update Congress on the X-date in the first half of May. He said Tuesday that estimate would be “forthcoming.”

“Just as an outfielder running for a fly ball, we are on the warning track,” Bessent said during testimony before a House appropriations subcommittee Tuesday. “And when you’re on the warning track, it means the wall’s not far away.”

. . . yay . . . 

Although the chances of the US government haphazardly defaulting on its debts is still vanishingly small, the price of credit default swaps on Treasuries has climbed markedly in recent weeks.

Here’s a long-term price chart of one-year US CDS prices. You can probably spot the previous debt ceiling shenanigans.


As you can see, we haven’t yet hit the fear level that we did in 2023 — when then-Treasury secretary Janet Yellen warned of “bedlam” if the debt ceiling wasn’t increased — but this is already comparable to previous low-key freak-outs. And the X-date is still probably months away.

There are several other signs that at least some investors are beginning to take the risk of the US defaulting semi-seriously. According to Barclays, the outstanding volume of CDS on US debt has climbed by almost $1bn this year, to $3.9bn . . . 

. . . and US CDS trading volumes have also picked up notably this year (the spike in trading volumes around the US presidential election is interesting).


In fact, over the past three months, US CDS have been the 12th most actively traded single-name CDS contract in the world.

So what kind of implied odds on default does this equate to? Well, the calculation is made a little tricky by the fact that the price of the cheapest-to-deliver bonds has obviously varied quite a bit over the years. For example, in May 2023 it was $56 and today it is about $48.

Overall, the current prices of the CDS and the relevant Treasury bond implies a default probability of just above 1 per cent, according to Barclays. On the other hand, the low cheapest-to-deliver bond price means that the payout ratio is MUCH higher today, at about 80 times.

FT : US opens foreign investments ‘fast track’ days before Donald Trump Gulf tri

US opens foreign investments ‘fast track’ days before Donald Trump Gulf trip
Gulf states estimated to manage 40% of world’s sovereign wealth

The US unveiled a “fast track” investment process for allied countries, days before President Donald Trump visits Gulf nations that have pledged to sink billions of dollars into US businesses and infrastructure including AI. 

Gulf states, who are estimated to manage 40 per cent of the world’s sovereign wealth and are some of the biggest investors in the US, have long lobbied to ease what they consider onerous administrative requirements that can slow down their spending in the US. 

The United Arab Emirates in particular is in a hurry to partner with American technology firms as it pushes to become the region’s pre-eminent hub for artificial intelligence. The UAE announced in March that it would invest $1.4tn in the US over 10 years.

The US Department of Treasury on Thursday said it would launch a portal where its Committee of Foreign Investment in the US (Cfius) would gather information from overseas investors before they file for an investment. 

It also said the department was “focused on increasing efficiencies in the Cfius process” to allow more investment from partner countries where “there is verifiable distance and independence from foreign adversaries or threat actors”.

Abu Dhabi has sought to convince US officials that it has opted to partner with America on AI and has shunned China, and wants better access to powerful semiconductors made by US firms such as Nvidia. 

US Treasury secretary Scott Bessent said the agency was “committed to maintaining and enhancing the open investment environment that benefits our economy, while making sure that process efficiencies do not diminish our ability to identify and address national security risks that can accompany foreign investment”.

President Trump will next week visit Saudi Arabia, Qatar and the UAE, accompanied by US executives. 

Although Riyadh has already pledged to invest $600bn in the US over the next four years, and the UAE has touted $1.4tn worth of investments in the coming decade, analysts anticipate that details of investment plans are likely to be discussed during the presidential visit. 

President Trump signed an America First Investment Policy directive in February, promising to make the US “the world’s greatest destination for investment dollars” while preventing investment from Chinese government entities and other “foreign adversaries”.