Fitch: ECB Exercise Only a First Step, Problem Loan Risks Remain
2014-10-13 10:05:14.351 GMT
FITCH: ECB EXERCISE ONLY A FIRST STEP, PROBLEM LOAN RISKS REMAIN
Link to Fitch Ratings' Report: The ECB’s Comprehensive Assessment: A First
Step
to Banking Union
http://www.fitchratings.com/creditdesk/reports/report_frame.cfm?rpt_id=790968Fitch Ratings-London-13 October 2014: The ECB's comprehensive assessment is only
a first step in levelling the playing field for banks' access to private sector
funds and ability to extend lending. High levels of unreserved problem loans
will leave some banks, particularly in weaker countries, still vulnerable, Fitch
Ratings says.
There is a strong correlation between banks with the weakest balance sheets and
weak eurozone sovereigns. Greece, Ireland, Italy and Spain made up more than two
thirds of unreserved impaired loans at end-1H14. The banks with the highest
unreserved impaired loans relative to capital tend to be from peripheral
eurozone countries.
Capitalisation has strengthened notably for most of the 130 banks undergoing the
assessment since the last EU-wide stress test in 2011. This has continued into
2014, with reported equity for the banks in the exercise rising by around
EUR65bn in 1H14, including common equity raising of around EUR31bn. The banks
also issued EUR15bn of additional Tier 1 securities, with further progress in
3Q14.
We expect further capital increases and restructuring to follow the
comprehensive assessment at the banks identified as the weakest. Despite this,
balance sheet strength will remain dependent on collateral valuation. Further
progress will be needed in the first few years of the single supervisory
mechanism to strengthen the balance sheet of weaker banks.
We estimate it would cost around EUR70bn to raise reserve coverage of impaired
loans for all banks undergoing the assessment to 60%. Upping coverage to a very
solid (and arguably conservative) level of 80% would cost around EUR235bn. We
certainly do not expect this much capital to be injected into the system during
the next few years. The numbers do, however, give a strong indication of the
importance of remaining vigilant about collateral valuation when assessing
banks.
The value of the collateral will inevitably be affected by the economy. We
expect the link to remain for some time, so divergent strengths of national
economies will remain key drivers of the individual creditworthiness of banks.
We expect the majority of banks to pass the assessment, and many of those that
fail could be technical failures, in the sense that capital shortfalls have
either already been addressed in 2014 or capital is easily sourced from within a
banking group. Only a small minority of institutions are likely to have a
headline capital shortfall that means they will need to establish plans to raise
capital or reduce assets by the middle of 2015.
The ECB announced Friday that the comprehensive assessment results will be
published on 26 October. Following the publication of the results, banks will,
where necessary, have two weeks to submit capital plans to the ECB.
For more details, see "The ECB's Comprehensive Assessment - A First Step to
Banking Union", published today at www.fitchratings.com
Contact:
Bridget Gandy
Managing Director
Financial Institutions
+44 20 3530 1095
Fitch Ratings Limited
30 North Colonnade
London
E14 5GN
Alan Adkins
Senior Director
Credit Policy
+44 20 3530 1702
Cynthia Chan
Senior Director
Fitch Wire
+44 20 3530 1655
Media Relations: Elaine Bailey, London, Tel: +44 203 530 1153, Email:
elaine.bailey@fitchratings.com.
The above article originally appeared as a post on the Fitch Wire credit market
commentary page. The original article can be accessed at www.fitchratings.com.
All opinions expressed are those of Fitch Ratings.
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