NYT : Greece’s Feisty Finance Minister Tries a More Moderate Message

ATHENS — In the first days after the election victory of the leftist party Syriza in Greece, Yanis Varoufakis, the new finance minister, has lobbed some rhetorical grenades, referring to his country’s foreign-imposed austerity budgets as “fiscal waterboarding” and calling Greece’s international bailout deals “a toxic mistake.”

Now, needing to make good on promises to negotiate debt relief for his beleaguered nation, he seems eager to send a more moderate message.

During an interview on Thursday morning in his office, Mr. Varoufakis, 53, poured a cup of coffee and took a large swallow. It had been a late night. On Wednesday, the day after he was sworn in, the Athens Stock Exchange had plunged on concerns that the Syriza-led government might wage a battle with Greece’s international creditors, and he had stayed up to monitor developments.

In his view, the markets, as well as leaders in some national capitals, overreacted to the perceived threat from Syriza. The party swept to power Sunday on promises to reject the belt-tightening policies — a condition of 240 billion euros, or about $272 billion in international bailout loans — that have stifled the Greek economy.

“People have described this as a Wild West showdown,” he said, sighing in frustration, “but it is not a ‘yes or no, take it or leave it’ situation.”

Settling onto a couch, Mr. Varoufakis — a self-described “accidental economist” and “erratic Marxist” — sketched out what he said was the heart of the problem: Greece’s debt is unsustainable and austerity constituted “fiscal waterboarding, where we are constantly having our head held under water.”

He said Greece wanted to negotiate with its creditors. But he insisted that Greece was not seeking a confrontation with creditors, whether in Frankfurt, Brussels or on Wall Street.

“All we’re asking is for,” he said, “is an opportunity to put together a proposal that will minimize the costs of Greece’s loan agreement and give this country a chance to breathe again after policies that created massive social depravity.”

Time is short. Even if the new government does not want to abide by the terms of Greece’s bailout agreements, the Treasury would seem in need of a remaining €7 billion loan disbursement from that program if Greece is to pay off foreign debts coming due by August.

But, Mr. Varoufakis said, “we don’t want the €7 billion.”

“We want to sit down and rethink the whole program,” he added. “Our task is not to get the next loan tranche,” which he said would be merely “kicking the can down the road.”

Instead, the task “is to restructure the debt and the economy to get the money we need.”

To Syriza’s detractors, such remarks might signal that the new government does not understand the magnitude of Greece’s financial challenges. But Mr. Varoufakis suggested that the government could finance its obligations by reducing the target for the so-called primary surplus, the amount of cash in Greece’s coffers after expenses and interest payments.

Creditors are demanding that Greece run a primary surplus of 4.5 percent of gross domestic product. Mr. Varoufakis, however, said Athens would propose to hold the level to 1 percent to 1.5 percent of G.D.P.

Greece is also counting on creditors to provide some form of debt relief, which would also free up funds. Much of the rest of Greece’s total debt of €318 billion is in the form of loans from other European Union governments, which do not want write-downs that would cost their taxpayers. Mr. Varoufakis wants to begin discussions with other finance ministers to find ways to reduce that burden and said the government would soon issue proposals.

Tall and magnetic, with a square jaw and a buzz-cut head, Mr. Varoufakis tends to speak in thoughtful and theatrical tones that can prompt strong reactions. He does not wear neckties, something avoided by the rest of the Syriza leadership. On Thursday, he was dressed in jeans, a black felt jacket with the collar upturned and a maroon T-shirt, along with motorcycle boots that he said were essential to wear on the powerful Yamaha that he rides everywhere.

Born in Athens, Mr. Varoufakis studied mathematical economics and statistics at Essex, England, where he obtained his doctoral degree in economics. His academic appointments included teaching economic theory and policy, political economics and philosophy and econometrics at the University of East Anglia, Cambridge, Glasgow and Sydney.

He is also the author of a widely followed blog, “Thoughts for the Post-2008 World,” which he plans to continue as finance minister. Hours after he was appointed on Tuesday, he wrote: “The time to put up or shut up has, I have been told, arrived. My plan is to defy such advice.”

Mr. Varoufakis has warned about the dangers of austerity since the 1980s. He served as an economic adviser to George Papandreou when he was prime minister in the mid-2000s, but quickly became a staunch critic when Mr. Papandreou embraced austerity after Greece’s debt crisis hit in 2009.

In a 2013 paper titled “Confessions of an Erratic Marxist in the Midst of a Repugnant European Crisis,” {http://bit.ly/1uI6Rev<Go>} Mr. Varoufakis argued that Europe’s economic malaise was not just another cyclical slump but largely a structural problem based on a European Union that was “a fundamentally anti-democratic, irrational cartel that has put Europe’s peoples on a path to misanthropy, conflict and permanent recession.”

Mr. Varoufakis wrote a book with James K. Galbraith, “A Modest Proposal,” which offered ideas for ending the euro crisis.

“There’s no one in officialdom in Europe that’s remotely like him in terms of intellectual reach and depth,” Mr. Galbraith, an economist and professor at the University of Texas, said in a telephone interview.

On Thursday, Mr. Varoufakis vowed that Greece would not have a financial “accident” or be forced to exit the euro currency union. Although Greece should probably never have entered the euro union, he said, he likened it to the Eagles’ song “Hotel California,” saying, “You can check out any time you like, but you can never leave.”

As for whether Greece could grow its way out of debt, Mr. Varoufakis said growth needed to be addressed first at a Pan-European level.

He called for a “New Deal” type of investment-led recovery program around Europe. But he dismissed a plan proposed by the European Commission president, Jean-Claude Juncker, to invest €300 billion to stimulate growth on the Continent without adding to debt, calling it “a public relations gimmick that has unfortunately occupied the minds of good people for too long — it will be a failure.”

Mr. Varoufakis played down concerns about the safety of Greek banks, despite reports that billions of euros in deposits have been fleeing the country.

“We expected that the first few days of our government, things would be turbulent,” he said. “Once the markets see that the proposals coming from this government are sensible, cooperative and therapeutic, we anticipate that share prices are going to” recover.

He also said Greece was not halting privatizations, despite remarks on Wednesday from another minister suggesting that this was the case.

“We want to ensure that this country becomes an attractive destination for foreign direct investment, but not interested in a fire sale or selling the family silver,” he said.

“I understand the fear in our partners’ minds that if Greece is given an opportunity to reboot, we may go back to our bad old ways and end up where we were in 2009,” he said. “It is important that we reassure them that we won’t do that, because we don’t want to do it ourselves.”

(citi) Europ. Strat. : Welcome to Planet QE — Yield/Spread Squasher

Welcome to Planet QE — Yield/Spread Squasher
* Welcome to Planet QE — Our QE conclusions remain the same: 1) drive further euro weakness, towards parity vs USD in 1H16, 2) provide an effective nominalGDP growth put, with Citi economists forecasting rise from 1.2% nominal GDP
growth for Euro Area this year to 3.5% in 2016E, 3) support higher asset prices.
* Stay bullish European equities — ECB QE is key ingredient in our bull case for European equities. We retain our long-held end-2015 Stoxx target of 400; c30% above last October’s lows vs c10% higher than current levels. We note that our
credit strategy colleague, Hans Lorenzen, expects € spreads to tighten 20-25%.
* Double-up, not double-down — We continue to think that there is a greater likelihood of “double-up”, ie positive earnings growth & re-rating, than “doubledown”, ie no/negative earnings growth & de-rating. The strong relative case for
equities vs bonds suggests marginal buyers will be more interested in buying equity.
* What's squashed, what's not — Policy actions, including words, have already had a big impact on some spreads, eg peripheral-core government bond spreads. Our rate strategy colleagues see further spread gains for most peripheral bonds but the big move is already done. We find more interesting spreads involving equity.
* Equity spreads — There are two types of spread at an equity level: 1) equity vs fixed income, 2) intra-equity market spreads. The former shows equity at historic relative valuation lows against many fixed income assets. This supports our bullish stance on equities providing there is no macro/EPS/systemic shock.
* Intra-equity spreads — European country/sector valuation spreads, on a price/book basis, only wider in last 20-30 years in late 1990s = suggests investors should take on more value. This means buying Financials and Commodities, which makes many uncomfortable. We prefer former to latter, but highlight rotation risk.
* Style spread — Using our Quant team’s style analysis, we show big spread, between Low/High Risk. Spread only wider in 2008-09 & early-2013; then, it paid investors to take on more risk. Be more selective, for now. Saint Gobain, Aegon,
KBC, DSM in this group and have 3%+ DY, 5%+ 2-year dividend CAGR.
* Style non-spread — Again, using our Quant team’s style analysis, we show the non-spread between High/Low Value, ie expensive/cheap, on a P/E basis. This continues to imply that investors should run earnings momentum strategies. We add other factors to positive relative earnings momentum: balance sheet, surplus FCF, positive EUR/USD beta = HSBC, Valeo, Unicredit, Peugeot, Persimmon, ARM, Wolseley, Novozymes.

(MS) European Strategy : Our first EPS upgrade in 3 years

On the verge of a European upgrade cycle
After four years of persistent growth disappointment, we believe that Europe is on the verge of an upgrade cycle. This will be one of the dominant factors influencing investment returns in Europe this year.

European economic momentum to gather pace
Irrespective of QE, we believe that the European economy will start to gain momentum over the coming months as the easing in financial conditions (lower euro, interest rates and oil) start to work through the system. Our economists highlight that their GDP indicator is consistent with 1Q GDP of c. 0.4%Q compared to their forecast of 0.2%Q.

Upgrades to European EPS ahead …
European net earnings revisions have been in negative territory since March 2011. Over the next 1-2 months we believe this series is likely to move into positive territory as analysts adjust their forecasts for the significant moves we’ve seen in FX, rates and the oil price.

… we lift our EPS growth forecast from 10% to 12% The prospect of stronger economic momentum, coupled with the sharp declines in the euro, rates and oil that we have already seen, lead us to increase our top-down 2015 EPS growth forecast from 10% to 12%. We also raise our price target from 1560 to 1580, implying 10% upside from current levels.

Growth upturn should support cyclicals
An upturn in European GDP/EPS would support our OW in cyclicals and should start to weaken the investment case for defensives.

Stock screens
Rising growth momentum should attract renewed interest in EU stocks. We screen for companies along the following lines: i) domestic cyclicals; ii) cheap cyclicals; iii) expensive defensives; iv) FX beneficiaries

>>> Brokers Upgrades & Downgrades - 30th of January 2015 (Updated)

>>> Up
*ASOS RAISED TO OUTPERFORM VS NEUTRAL AT EXANE, PT 4,000P
*CENTRICA RAISED TO NEUTRAL VS SELL AT UBS
*EASYJET RAISED TO NEUTRAL VS UNDERWEIGHT AT HSBC
*ENI RAISED TO BUY VS HOLD AT INVESTEC
*JC DECAUX RAISED TO OVERWEIGHT VS EQUALWEIGHT AT BARCLAYS
*KERING RAISED TO BUY VS NEUTRAL AT NATIXIS
*LEGRAND RAISED TO BUY VS NEUTRAL AT CITI
*PETROFAC RAISED TO OUTPERFORM VS NEUTRAL AT EXANE

>>> Down
*3I GROUP CUT TO NEUTRAL VS BUY AT CITI
*ALROSA CUT TO EQUALWEIGHT VS OVERWEIGHT AT BARCLAYS
*ATLAS COPCO CUT TO HOLD VS BUY AT DEUTSCHE BANK
*AXEL SPRINGER CUT TO EQUALWEIGHT VS OVERWEIGHT AT BARCLAYS
*BG GROUP CUT TO SELL VS HOLD AT INVESTEC
*CATLIN CUT TO MARKETPERFORM AT BERNSTEIN
*CGG CUT TO UNDERPERFORM VS NEUTRAL AT EXANE
*CREDITO EMILIANO CUT TO NEUTRAL VS OUTPERFORM AT EXANE
*DIAGEO CUT TO MARKETPERFORM VS OUTPERFORM AT BERNSTEIN
*HANNOVER RE CUT TO NEUTRAL VS OUTPERFORM AT CREDIT SUISSE
*INTERTEK CUT TO EQUALWEIGHT VS OVERWEIGHT AT BARCLAYS
*KINGFISHER CUT TO NEUTRAL VS OUTPERFORM AT EXANE, PT 390P
*KONE CUT TO SELL VS HOLD AT DNB
*L'OREAL CUT TO NEUTRAL VS BUY AT NATIXIS
*MTU AERO ENGINES CUT TO HOLD VS BUY AT BERENBERG
*PROSIEBENSAT.1 CUT TO UNDERWEIGHT VS EQUALWEIGHT AT BARCLAYS
*REPSOL CUT TO SELL VS HOLD AT INVESTEC
*REZIDOR HOTEL CUT TO NEUTRAL VS OUTPERFORM AT EXANE
*SAIPEM CUT TO UNDERPERFORM VS NEUTRAL AT EXANE
*SGS CUT TO UNDERWEIGHT VS EQUALWEIGHT AT BARCLAYS
*SHELL CUT TO NEUTRAL VS OVERWEIGHT AT HSBC
*WOLSELEY CUT TO NEUTRAL VS OVERWEIGHT AT JPMORGAN

>>> PT Changes


>>> Initiation
*AIRBUS RATED NEW EQUALWEIGHT AT MORGAN STANLEY, PT EU53
*DSM RATED NEW SELL AT SOCGEN, PT EU43
*ZALANDO RATED NEW UNDERPERFORM AT EXANE, PT EU18

>>> Call
>> Stock*ABB ADDED TO CONVICTION SELL LIST AT GOLDMAN
*BRITVIC ADDED TO TO CONVICTION BUY LIST AT GOLDMAN
*SIEMENS REMOVED FROM GOLDMAN CONVICTION BUY LIST, STAYS BUY

(BofA-ML) The Flow Show : Inflows, Vigilantes & the Fed

>>> Asset Class Flows
* Equities: $3.8bn inflows (first inflows in 4 weeks; all via ETF’s)
* Bonds: $10.1bn inflows (largest since Oct’14) (Table 1)
* Precious metals: $0.9bn inflows (2 straight weeks)
* Money-markets: $7.7bn outflows

>>> Equity Flows
* Europe: strongest inflows ($5.1bn) since Dec’13 (Table 2)
* EM: first inflows in 11 weeks ($0.4bn)
* US: $3.3bn outflows (4 straight weeks)
* Japan: first outflows in 4 weeks ($0.4bn)

>>>Fixed Income Flows
* 58 straight weeks of inflows to IG bond funds ($4.8bn)
* $3.5bn inflows to HY bond funds (largest since Oct’13)
* 8 straight weeks of outflows from EM debt funds (albeit a small $0.2bn)
* 29 straight weeks of outflows from bank loan funds ($0.3bn)
* 19 straight weeks of inflows to muni funds ($0.9bn)
* 15 straight weeks of inflows to MBS funds ($0.5bn)


Talking Points
* ECB risk-on: “risk-on” flows post ECB QE announcement; investors reduce cash ($8bn outflows) to fund buying of equities ($4bn inflows) & bonds ($10bn inflows)
* Risk-on winners: biggest European equity inflows since Dec’13 ($5.1bn – Chart 1); largest HY inflows since Oct’13; 1st week of EM equity inflows in 11 weeks
* Gold-on: largest 2-week inflows to precious metal funds since Sep’12 – Chart 5; gold back in fashion following brutal break of Swiss franc-euro peg
* GWIM flows: while broad flow data shows inflows to both bonds & stocks past 12 months, our GWIM flows show inflows to stocks & outflows from bonds (Chart 4)
* GWIM AA: retail asset allocation to stocks is at historically high levels (Chart 2)
* GWIM duration: while bond allocations have dropped, retail clients have extended the maturities/durations of corporate bond holdings; their yield-seeking, risk-on stance has been driven by greater conviction in the lower-for-longer interest rate forecast (Chart 3)
* 2015 YTD global total returns: stocks flat, bonds flat, commodities -8%, USD +5%.
We remain bullish volatility, our favored Q1 asset: event risks in energy, credit, EPS high post-ECB; financial stress, US GDP/EPS growth stumble, or Europe failure to respond to lower oil/currency/rates would initiate large risk off asset allocation in next 6 weeks.
* Lose-lose for risk: if growth disappoints Q1...investors say "policy failure"...volatility up; if growth up...Fed hike expectations...volatility up. 
* SPX vs. Fed: risk that "equity vigilantes" push SPX lower in coming weeks to force Fed into dovish March FOMC (when Fed widely expected to drop mention of "considerable time" from statement).

>>> What to look at today - 30th of January 2015

Dow+1,31% S&P+0,95% Nasdaq+0,98% Russell+1,28% VIX 18.76 (-8.22%)
US Market closed Higher after a volatile session, saw selling pressure at the start amid continued weakness in crude oil. The energy component set a fresh January low in the $43.60/bbl area, but was able to charge back to unchanged by the pit close Dow Ch. (DOW) +4.6% helped materials sector, discretionary sector (+1.3%) outperformed throughout the session after several major components reported earnings, Top-weighted names like Apple (AAPL 118.90, +3.59), IBM (IBM 155.48, +3.93), and Microsoft (MSFT 42.01, +0.82) jumped between 2.0% and 3.1%...USAfter Hours AMZN +14%, BIIB +6.9%, V +4.6%, GOOG +1.9%, DECK -13.9%, ALGN -9.7% following earnings/guidance...Falling oil prices continued to weigh on inflation in Japan, sending core nationwide and Tokyo CPIs to 9- and 10-month lows respectively. Analysts are speculating that eventually, lower energy costs will translate into higher spending, but that development is yet to materialize. Meanwhile, Japan is approaching the consumption tax hike rolloff in April, which could send annual CPI levels back to negative territory and further dampen Abenomics objective of 2% inflation target...Shanghai Composite is down for the 4th straight day and on pace for its first lower weekly close in 10 weeks, as headwinds from recent scrutiny into margin trading are finally translating into more tangible retreat. According to a survey, fund managers reduced their suggested equity allocation for the next three months to 82.8% from 85.9%, and increased their suggested bond allocation to 6.8% from 5.1% in the prior month. Separately, Ministry of Finance reported 2014 Fiscal Spending rose 8.2%, while Revenue was up 8.6%. A-shares are down 1% on the day going into the final hour of trading.
Nikkei +0.39% Hang Seng -0.24% Shanghai -1.55%

RUB $69.02 (-0.11) WTI $44.49 (-0.10%) EURCHF 1.04515

Eur$1.1327 S&P -0.22% Eurostoxx +0.47% Dax +0.48% SMI +0.70%

Macro :
- Greece to Benefit Less From Weak Euro Than Germany: Ackermann

Keep an eye on :
- AIR FP : Airbus Said to Reassure Shareholders Over A380 Future: Reuters
- ALT FP : Altran Says 2015 Will Be Positive as 4Q Sales Rise 10%
- ATE FP : Alten Predicts Sales Increase in 2015 After 13% Growth in 2014
- BPI PL : Banco BPI Posts Full-Year 2014 Net Loss of EU161.6m
- BEN FP : Beneteau Sees Tripling of 2014-2015 Op. Profit to EU37M: Echos
- BNP FP : BNP to Hire SME, Private Bankers in Paris Region: Tribune
- BP/ LN : BP Cuts Gulf of Mexico Staff in Response to Low Crude Prices
- BT/A LN : BT Reiterates FY Outlook as 3Q Adj. Ebitda Meets Estimates
- CABK SM : Caixabank 4Q Net Income EU154M Compared With Est. EU220.2M
- EDF FP : EDF Opens Talks on White-Collar Working Time, Les Echos Says
- EDF FP : EDF Is Part of Consortium Seeking Eurostar Stake, Echos Says
- EDP PL : Jose de Mello Energia to Sell 2% Stake in EDP
- ELI1V FH : Elisa 4Q EPS Misses Ests.; Sees Flat Revenue; Raises Dividend
- IAG LN : Qatar Airways Purchases 9.99% Stake in IAG
- IDR SM : Telefonica Aims to Be Main Shareholder in Indra: Expansion
- LHA GY : Qatar Airways CEO Says Germany Protecting Lufthansa: Focus
- NOVOB DC : Novo Nordisk 4Q Net Profit Beats Est.; Proposes Div. DKK5/Shr, 4Q Victoza Sales Beat Est.; to Start DKK15B Buyback
- NUO MA : SHV Increases Offer Price to EU45.25 Per Nutreco Share
- SIK VX : Sika Says Board Has Over 40% Shareholder Support
- SOLB BB : Solvay to Sell Refrigerant Business in Frankfurt to Daikin
- TEL2B SS : Tele2 Raises Dividend; 4Q Ebitda In Line W/ Est.
- WDF IM : Edizione Hasn’t Received Concrete Offer for World Duty Free

>>> Brokers Upgrades & Downgrades - 30th of January 2015

>>> Up
*ASOS RAISED TO OUTPERFORM VS NEUTRAL AT EXANE, PT 4,000P
*CENTRICA RAISED TO NEUTRAL VS SELL AT UBS
*EASYJET RAISED TO NEUTRAL VS UNDERWEIGHT AT HSBC
*JC DECAUX RAISED TO OVERWEIGHT VS EQUALWEIGHT AT BARCLAYS
*LEGRAND RAISED TO BUY VS NEUTRAL AT CITI

>>> Down
*3I GROUP CUT TO NEUTRAL VS BUY AT CITI
*ALROSA CUT TO EQUALWEIGHT VS OVERWEIGHT AT BARCLAYS
*AXEL SPRINGER CUT TO EQUALWEIGHT VS OVERWEIGHT AT BARCLAYS
*DIAGEO CUT TO MARKETPERFORM VS OUTPERFORM AT BERNSTEIN
*HANNOVER RE CUT TO NEUTRAL VS OUTPERFORM AT CREDIT SUISSE
*INTERTEK CUT TO EQUALWEIGHT VS OVERWEIGHT AT BARCLAYS
*KINGFISHER CUT TO NEUTRAL VS OUTPERFORM AT EXANE, PT 390P
*MTU AERO ENGINES CUT TO HOLD VS BUY AT BERENBERG
*PROSIEBENSAT.1 CUT TO UNDERWEIGHT VS EQUALWEIGHT AT BARCLAYS
*SGS CUT TO UNDERWEIGHT VS EQUALWEIGHT AT BARCLAYS
*SHELL CUT TO NEUTRAL VS OVERWEIGHT AT HSBC
*WOLSELEY CUT TO NEUTRAL VS OVERWEIGHT AT JPMORGAN

>>> PT Changes


>>> Initiation
*AIRBUS RATED NEW EQUALWEIGHT AT MORGAN STANLEY, PT EU53
*DSM RATED NEW SELL AT SOCGEN, PT EU43
*ZALANDO RATED NEW UNDERPERFORM AT EXANE, PT EU18

>>> Call
>> Stock
*BRITVIC ADDED TO TO CONVICTION BUY LIST AT GOLDMAN
*SIEMENS REMOVED FROM GOLDMAN CONVICTION BUY LIST, STAYS BUY